IBF On Demand: Recent Episodes
Eric Wilson CPF
The forecasting, demand planning and S&OP podcast designed for practitioners in the field. Brought to you by the Institute of Business Forecasting with your host Eric Wilson.
Prices are rising. Consumers are reacting. And demand planners? We're somewhere in the middle, stuck trying to model behavior that doesn't follow the rules anymore. In this episode, I sit down with Stephen McClurkin, Senior Demand Manager at T-Mobile, to unpack the reality of price elasticity in today's volatile market. From the ripple effects of policies and politics to the unpredictable outcomes of pricing moves, we explore how to Forecast smarter in the face of uncertainty. Whether you're feeling the pressure of COGS increases or just trying to keep your forecasts sane in a noisy world, this episode is for you.
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No fluff. Just real talk from the field, made simple.
Whether you're new to the world of planning or a seasoned pro looking for a refresher, this episode breaks down the fundamentals of demand planning in a way that’s practical, approachable, and actually useful. I cover the essentials who owns the forecast, what makes a good one, which KPIs matter most, and how to choose the right methods. This is your crash course and survival guide, designed to give you the clarity and confidence to plan better today.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
This may be my most important, and urgent, episode yet. I recently audited an executive S&OP meeting where something alarming happened: 9 people in the room… and 15 AI bots taking notes, summarizing, and listening in. We’ve crossed a line, and we don’t even realize it. In this episode, I sound the alarm on how companies are accidentally sabotaging their planning process by deploying AI in the wrong way and maybe what we should be doing instead. This is a wake-up call for every planner, executive, and digital transformation leader. AI is here, but if we don't integrate it intentionally, we’re not advancing, we're eroding the very thing S&OP is built on: alignment and clarity.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Everyone’s talking about tariffs, and price hikes are already hitting. In this episode, I break down what’s really happening behind the headlines and constantly changing policies from the oval office and how it impacts demand planning, forecasting, and inventory strategy.
We’ll unpack the ripple effects of guaranteed price increases, what the data are actually telling us, and why chasing the news cycle can break your planning process. Most importantly, I’ll share practical steps you can take right now to plan in the unknown, without panic, overreaction, or waste.
If you’re in supply chain, S&OP, or demand planning, you can’t afford to just react, let’s talk about how to lead instead.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
I dive into the often-overlooked secret to a successful S&OP process: asking the right questions. It's not about dashboards or software, it’s about fostering curiosity, healthy conflict, and conversation that surfaces blind spots and misalignment. I’ll share the four essential questions every planning team should be asking and explain why the goal of your S&OP meeting isn’t agreement, it’s clarity. If you’re not challenging assumptions, you’re not moving forward. This episode is your reminder that the most powerful tool in S&OP is free, and it starts with asking why.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
What happens when your supply chain meets viral fame? I sat down with Tara Tarazi, VP of Supply Chain at DUDE Wipes, to uncover the real-world planning challenges behind TikTok Shop and other in-app e-commerce platforms. From flash demand spikes to unpredictable affiliate influence, Tara reveals how DUDE Wipes is building a resilient, agile, and disciplined S&OP strategy in one of the most chaotic and fast-moving digital markets today. Whether you're in CPG, retail, or just trying to make sense of modern omni-channel planning—this is an episode you can’t miss.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this episode, I sit down with Yoshika Hirata, Senior Director of Integrated Business Planning at Xponential Fitness, to explore a powerful yet often overlooked truth great people alone can’t fix bad processes. We unpack how strong, structured processes not only enable success but actually attract and retain top talent, while broken ones push them away. Yoshika shares how she uses OGSM (Objectives, Goals, Strategies, and Measures) to align supply chain planning, and why she believes S&OP is the pinnacle of process-driven performance. If you want to elevate your S&OP game, boost team alignment, and stop losing good talent to bad systems this is a must-listen.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
This one picks up right where the last episode left off—with real talk on AI in planning and forecasting, minus the hype. I break down the buzzwords people are throwing around (agentic AI, synthetic data, etc.) in plain English—and share what these things actually mean for demand planners, supply chain pros, and S&OP leaders.
And yes… I tell a story about my Pappi’s mule that might explain why AI, at its core, is still kind of dumb and mean (and why that’s not always bad).
Whether you’re feeling overwhelmed by AI promises or just want to understand how it’s being used right now in our field, this is the episode for you.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Everyone's talking about AI—but what does it really mean for demand and supply planners? In this must-watch episode, I sit down with Jess Lee, an amazing data scientist from Microsoft, to break down the most common AI buzzwords in a way anyone can understand. We dive into the real-world applications already being used in forecasting and planning—and what you need to know to stay ahead.
From generative models to predictive analytics, Jess helps separate the hype from the reality. If you're in demand planning, supply planning, or S&OP, this is your roadmap to understanding the AI that's shaping the future of our field.
Subscribe and watch now—because understanding AI isn't optional anymore
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In today’s global business environment, S&OP is more than just balancing supply and demand—it’s about aligning cross-regional teams, navigating cultural nuances, and creating a unified strategy across borders. In this exclusive interview, I sit down with Christopher Mael, Director of S&OP at Precor, to unpack the real challenges of implementing global S&OP. We discuss the differences between regional and multinational strategies, how culture impacts collaboration and decision-making, and the common mistakes organizations make when scaling S&OP globally. Whether you’re building a global process or want to strengthen alignment across regions, this episode delivers the insights you’ve been looking for. Click play and join the conversation.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Many professionals don’t plan for a career in S&OP—they find their way there by accident. In this episode, I sit down with Sergio Luiz Winter, Associate Director of Plasma Supply Chain Planning at Grifols, to discuss his unexpected journey from FP&A and controllership to becoming a successful S&OP leader. We explore the key skills needed to thrive in this role, how financial expertise translates to planning success, and what it takes to champion S&OP in today’s complex supply chain landscape. If you're looking to transition into S&OP or refine your leadership skills, this is a must-listen!
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join me in this enlightening episode as I interview Viktoriia Khorolska, a leading expert from Ukraine and Germany, on the role of Collaborative Planning and Forecast Replenishment (CPFR) in today's supply chain management. We explore whether CPFR remains crucial in modern business, compare regional practices across Europe, and discuss how evolving market dynamics are reshaping collaborative strategies. Tune in for actionable insights that could redefine your approach to planning and replenishment.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this episode, I break down the essential KPIs in demand planning—what they are, what they aren’t, and how to calculate them correctly. I’ll explore the most commonly used metrics, debunk misconceptions, and explain why MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) is not the villain it’s made out to be. Learn how to leverage these KPIs to drive better forecasting accuracy and smarter decision-making.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this episode, we explore how Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) functions on a global scale, bridging the gap between regional requirements and overarching business objectives. Discover three distinct approaches to implementing S&OP worldwide, and learn which option might be best suited to your organization. Gain insights on creating a critical framework that respects local differences while driving a unified, high-level strategy across multiple geographies.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this insightful interview, I sat down with Cynthia Trevino de Leon, CFO at Mexilink and a driving force behind their emerging S&OP process. We explore the crucial role of finance in S&OP/IBP, the importance of linking KPIs directly to the income statement and balance sheet, and how this financial lens can foster stronger collaboration and shared strategy across the organization. Cynthia also shares her experiences as part of Chief—an empowering community of women executives—and offers inspiration on how we can nurture the next generation of female leaders in our field. Tune in for practical guidance, inspiring stories, and a fresh perspective on what it takes to elevate S&OP and drive meaningful business success.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this special follow-up episode and the second part of our 2-part series, I sit down with Meredith Cannon, Sr. Director of S&OP at Bimbo Bakeries. Building on discussions from the recent IBF Orlando conference, we dive into the pivotal role of cross-functional collaboration in demand planning and S&OP, explore consumption-based forecasting, and discuss how leadership in our field is evolving. Tune in for Meredith’s expert insights and actionable strategies to elevate your planning processes!
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this first installment of a two-part series, I bring you a special interview with Patrick Bower, a supply chain expert with extensive experience and deep insights in the field. Fresh from the IBF Orlando conference, I ask Patrick some of the same tough questions I posed as moderator at the leadership forum. Join us as we dive into topics like S&OP, collaboration, transparency, and explore where we agree—and respectfully disagree—on the scope of S&OP/IBP. This episode offers a rare glimpse into the minds of top industry leaders and the strategic thinking that drives them forward.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this special seasonal episode, we're serving up spine-chilling stories that will make any supply chain professional break into a cold sweat! From terrifying data disasters to forecast nightmares that spiraled out of control, these tales are a reminder that even the smallest oversight in supply and demand planning can have monstrous consequences. You may want to listen with the lights on... Tune in for hair-raising stories that are sure to haunt you long after the episode ends.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this episode, I sit down with Kyle Garcia, Director of NAM SCM Strategy at Adidas, to explore the surge of meetings during COVID and why they never seemed to go away. Drawing from his recent survey, Kyle shares insights into the current state of decision-making and I show how businesses can adopt decision mapping techniques to streamline meetings, reduce overload, and make faster, more efficient choices.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this insightful episode, I sat down with Imane (Amy) Sabeh, the Director of Global S&OP at KBI Biopharma and my co-author of the latest book Practical Guide to Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP/IBP). Together, we unveil what readers can expect from this timely and essential guide that’s flying off the shelves. Discover why this book is perfect for the current landscape, what makes it a must-have resource, and gain a behind-the-scenes look at the purpose and thought process behind its creation. Whether you’re new to S&OP or a seasoned professional, this episode will show you why this guide should be on your reading list!
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join us for this incredible milestone as we celebrate our 100th episode after 4 unbelievable years! In this celebratory episode, I bring back some of your favorite past guests and share exclusive behind-the-scenes stories about the inspiration that fueled this podcast. A heartfelt thank you to everyone who has been part of this journey, especially our amazing guests and even more amazing viewers. We couldn't have reached this milestone without your support! Tune in to relive the highlights and look forward to what’s next.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this eye-opening episode, we delve into why the traditional annual business budget cycle might be more of a hindrance than a help. I'll share common practices and highlight the critical issues with the current budgeting methods, such as inefficiencies, rigidness, and the misalignment with real-time business dynamics. Discover how adopting S&OP/IBP can be your game-changing solution, eliminating months of unnecessary work and unproductive meetings. Tune in to learn how you can transform your budgeting process and drive more agile, responsive, and effective financial planning.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Dive into the future of planning with our latest episode! I sit down with Matthew Walz, head of the predictive intelligence team at General Mills, to uncover how artificial crowdsourcing and generative AI are transforming the landscape. Matthew shares groundbreaking practical use cases and offers exclusive insights into the innovative strategies he's pioneering in the field. Don't miss this chance to learn how to leverage cutting-edge technology to enhance your planning processes and stay ahead of the curve!
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join us in this insightful episode as we explore the idea that the right person can excel in any function or industry with the right fundamentals. I sit down with Michael Kennamann, who is leading the introduction of the IBF-Chicagoland Chapter and boasts over 27 years of experience across multiple industries and roles. We delve into his career journey, discuss the challenges of changing careers and industries, and highlight the common threads that make success transferable. Don’t miss this deep dive into career adaptability and the power of core skills.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this episode, we delve into why and how you need to assess your current S&OP and planning processes. I highlight common issues found in immature S&OP processes and emphasize the critical notion that sometimes, the biggest problem is not knowing what you don’t know. By sharing insights from IBF's extensive research, I provide a comprehensive look into S&OP/IBP maturity and guide you through the steps to elevate your planning processes to the next level. Don't miss this opportunity to identify gaps and unlock the full potential of your S&OP strategy.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this episode, we delve into the current state of work and its impact on the field of supply chain planning. With a focus on remote and hybrid environments, we explore the evolving job market, potential unemployment, and job reductions ahead. Join me as I interview Jason Breault, an experienced supply chain recruiter from LifeWork Search, who shares his expert insights on these pressing issues. Don’t miss this opportunity to gain valuable perspectives on the future of work in supply chain planning. Tune in to stay informed and prepared for the changes ahead.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join us for an enlightening interview with Douglas Guilherme, VP of Supply Chain at Hershey's, as we delve into the intricacies of managing and mastering complexity in supply chains. From external market fluctuations to internal challenges, Douglas shares practical insights and use cases on understanding and effectively handling complexity in both supply and demand. Don't miss this opportunity to gain valuable perspectives from a seasoned industry leader.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this eye-opening episode, we debunk the top 5 myths surrounding Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP/IBP). From the misconception that S&OP is not worth it to the belief that it's overly complicated and time-consuming, we set the record straight. Drawing insights from IBF research and our own expertise, we shed light on what S&OP truly entails and why it's a game-changer for businesses. Tune in to find out why you may be wrong!
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join me as I delve into the future of planning jobs amidst the AI revolution. I share insights from our latest research on the evolving skill sets required for planners today and in the coming years. Plus, a candid discussion on the rampant misinformation surrounding our field and the importance of substance over click bait. Tune in for a thought-provoking exploration of the intersection between AI and planning careers (and the 101 things you must know before you take your next job.)
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Unlocking Success Amidst Common Pitfalls. Tune in as I delve into the critical topic of S&OP challenges, shedding light on why so many companies struggle to advance to the next level of maturity. Drawing from research and personal experience, I unveil the top 7 hurdles that hinder lower maturity S&OP processes. Learn how to overcome these obstacles and propel your S&OP journey towards Next level maturity.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join me in a riveting Q&A session with Michael Day, the seasoned Head of Integrated Planning at Glatfelter. We dive deep into the real world of integrated planning, exploring real career highlights, challenges, and real-world experiences. Gain invaluable insights, learn from practical examples, and enrich your understanding of integrated planning in the real business landscape
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join me in this special extra episode as we unravel the transformative power of Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP)/Integrated Business Planning (IBP). Delve into the intricacies of the top 10 benefits that manifest when S&OP is executed with finesse. From enhanced agility to streamlined collaboration, each benefit is a building block for organizational brilliance. Tune in and gain insights into how S&OP maturity propels companies toward unparalleled success.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this riveting episode, I sit down with bestselling author and predictive analytics luminary, Eric Siegel. Our discussion unravels the mysteries of his latest book, "The AI Playbook," and takes a no-holds-barred dive into the world of AI. We debunk fallacies, explore the evolving landscape of machine learning, and share insights on why mastering the art is as much about process as it is about technology. Get ready for an honest, entertaining, and enlightening conversation that challenges the way we perceive and navigate the buzzword BIZ ML.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Embark on a riveting exploration of Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) as we delve into a candid conversation with the illustrious Bob Stahl. An influential figure in the S&OP realm with over 50 years of expertise, Bob shares insights from his newest book, "S&OP: An Executive Update." Join us as we reflect on the evolving landscape of S&OP, exploring its core definitions, dispelling misconceptions, and unraveling the nuances between volume and mix.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
This is our bonus episode of our four-part series on the basics of S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning). In our series finale it unwraps the significance of "tactical reviews," a key component enriching your S&OP/IBP process. Explore the nuanced objectives and essential elements of S&OE, gaining insights that bridge the gap between planning and execution.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
This is our Fourth and Final of our four-part series on the basics of S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning), we raise this to the imperative component of "Executive Reviews." Join Eric as he provides insights into the objectives and elements of Executive reviews within S&OP/IBP and let you know what yours may be missing.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Dive into the dynamic world of supply chain with Dr. Steven Melnyk, a distinguished academic and prolific author in the field. Unravel the pendulum effect in supply chain planning, exploring how constant shifts from crisis to crisis have become the new norm. Join the conversation as we discuss the evolving role of supply chain managers, the changing focus from cost efficiency, and the imperative of being a translator in the complex language of the modern supply chain. Gain insights on preparing the workforce for a future that is perpetually in flux.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
This is our third of our four-part series on the basics of S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning), we dive deep into the critical component of "Supply & Resource Reviews." Join Eric as he discusses the objectives and elements of supply and resource reviews within S&OP and shows it a lot more than just balancing supply and demand.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In this insightful interview, join us as we sit down with Karin Bursa, a renowned influencer in supply chain innovation. We demystify the world of AI, exploring what is real, what's myth, and what is exaggerated. I delve into the discussion on the genuine challenges faced in AI adoption, the human aspects of planning, and how to define your unique problems to discover the right AI solutions and if we are lagging if we're not implementing AI right now?
Support the Show.
To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
This is our second of our four-part series on the basics of S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning), we dive deep into the critical component of "Demand Reviews." Join Eric as he discusses the process of consensus forecast and demand reviews within the S&OP/IBP cycle and we look at the objectives, critical KPIs, and other elements of this step.
Arkieva, Your One-Plan S&OP Software
Driving business transformation through better supply chain planning processes.
Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.
Support the show
To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join us for an insightful interview with Marcia Williams, author of "Scaling Supply Chains with Maria." In this episode, we delve into the critical partnership between supply chain and finance. Discover the not-so-secret world of finance and why it is essential for supply chain and demand planning to embrace it as a trusty sidekick.
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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
In the first of our four-part series on the elements of S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning), we dive deep into the critical component of "Product Reviews." Join Eric as he unravels the intricacies of Product Reviews within the S&OP framework and we break down the objectives, goals, and outputs of the Product Review step.
Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Join us for a captivating interview with thought leader Ryan Harman, Director of Planning at Black Rifle Coffee Company. Ryan's expertise comes to life as he shares exclusive insights from his feature in the spring edition of the Journal of Business Forecasting, where he answered 20 pivotal questions as a planning leader.
In this one-on-one conversation, we delve deeper into Ryan's illustrious career journey and explore the intricacies of planning at Black Rifle Coffee. Gain a firsthand understanding of the challenges this dynamic company faces as a rapidly growing entity with multi-channel operations, including Amazon, Walmart, and direct-to-consumer channels.
Arkieva, Your One-Plan S&OP Software
Driving business transformation through better supply chain planning processes.
Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.
To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
Driving S&OP Success: The Power of Engaged Executives with Biopharma Global Supply Chain Executive Denise Sena
Discover why executives' active involvement is key to S&OP success and why 20% of companies say they struggle with this. Learn how to identify an engaged executive, what they do to support S&OP, and how to gain and maintain their unwavering support.
To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org
We explore the critical factors that influence inventory levels and shed light on why JIT and lean alone may not be sufficient to address the complexities of modern-day inventory challenges- With Jeff Baker, award-winning supply chain specialist.
IBF's Thought Leader Eric Wilson dives into AI in Supply Chain
IBF OnDemand is sponsored by Arkieva-Drive real business transformation by improving your supply chain planning processes. Tailored specifically to you, whether you’re running an enterprise organization or a small business.
IBF's Director of Thought Leadership Eric Wilson looks at all of the factors that you need to consider to balance and optimize your inventory levels, especially after Covid and other outlying events that could affect your forecasting.
Lessons For Recent Graduates: Berkeley MBA Students Capstone Project
Hosted by Eric Wilson, CPF is the Director of Thought Leadership at The Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF), a post he assumed after leading the planning functions at Escalade Sports, Tempur Sealy and Berry Plastics. In 2016, he received the IBF Excellence in Business Forecasting & Planning award. Eric is the author of 'Predictive Analytics for Business Forecasting'. He is an IBF Advanced Certified Professional Forecaster (ACPF).
ABOUT IBF
The Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning (IBF)-est. 1982, is a membership organization recognized worldwide for fostering the growth of Demand Planning, Forecasting, and Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP), and the careers of those in the field.
© 2020 INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
02:35 Sara Park, VP E2E Integrated Planning at Coca-Cola
08:20 Falling in love with demand planning
12:30 The importance of mentoring and finding a mentor
13:55 Advice for building and managing teams
23:25 Advice for your younger self: trust your instincts
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
02:00 CPFR for 'outside in' planning
04:40 Original CPFR steps: Info sharing, joint forecasting, coordinate shipments
06:41 Bringing the outside in for better planning
10:44 CPFR includes external factors and leading indicators
13:40 Guiding principles of CPFR
16:10 Benefits of CPFR
17:35 Where CPFR goes wrong for a lot of companies
19:50 Overcoming cultural fear of sharing information
23:00 Keys to success: getting the right strategic partner, starting slow
https://ibf.org/knowledge/jbf-articles/a-history-of-cpfr-941
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
02:47 S&OP in the service industry - why is nobody talking about it?
04:45 SLB is a giant energy company and service provider
08:00 The challenges of S&OP in a services company
10:45 Asset utilization, back up ratios - same principles, different metrics
14:15 Balancing constraints in a services business
15:55 Performance metrics in S&OP for services
17:50 S&OP for drilling oil and gas
22:30 Where to get educated on S&OP for services businesses
26:00 S&OP isn't just for manufacturing now
27:25 Tips for getting started in S&OP for services
3:05 Confusion surrounding different job titles and responsibilities in supply chain
04:40 Alina Davydova, S&OP Manager at Danfoss
05:50 Defining supply planning and demand planning
08:10 The demand plan becomes the supply plan in an E2E process
09:45 The roles need to defined and assigned
11:05 Breaking down siloes between demand and supply
14:05 Don't expect other functions to expect to know what you do
17:00 Advice to hiring managers when recruiting for different roles
19:40 Training and engaging employees after onboarding
22:30 Demand is a prediction problem, supply is an optimization problem
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software.
04:20 Jonathon Karelse, author of Histories of the Future
07:48 The epistemology of forecasting - why do we forecast the way we do?
10:00 Questioning forecasting orthodoxy - did Holt & Winters know what they were doing?
12:35 Behavioural economics and bias in forecasting
13:50 Judgemental methods in forecasting
17:25 Why the M Forecasting Competitions were created
22:30 Was COVID a reset for forecasting?
26:00 The future of the forecasting field
01:25 Get IBF Membership
02:30 Getting investment for resources
04:10 Building the business case for investment
06:00 Learn the needs and language of decision makers
07:36 Presenting the benefits: ROI, savings, efficiencies
09:18 Educate leadership about what you do
11:00 Explaining what improved forecast accuracy really means for cash and ROI
12:40 Find a champion with influence
16:04 Be a salesperson
21:40 Be patient
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Introducing Eric's younger, better, and smarter replacement.
01:20 What is business forecasting?
01:40 What is demand planning?
03:49 What are business forecasting and business forecasting important?
04:58 Is there a difference between demand planning and demand forecasting?
06:55 What are the key elements of demand planning?
10:35 What data is used in forecasting?
18:27 What does unbiased and unconstrained mean?
22:35 What does the future look like for demand forecasting and planning?
01:43 Appling COVID forecasting models for business problems
03:23 We're not forecasting numbers but how consumers react to different stimuli
05:21 John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, pushing the boundaries of predictive analytics
08:10 Modelling variables like behavior and policy that spread diseases
12:20 Most companies use only internal data which stops us from spotting changes
14:06 Testing assumptions to identify the tipping point of behavioral change before they happen
14:15 Understanding the 'why' of behavioral change
16:30 What synthetic data is
18:23 Modelling adoptions curves for diseases and consumer products is the same
19:24 Simulating the interactions between people, things and environment
21:23 Demand shaping to drive adoption of new products
22:40 Modelling shifting populations
24:58 How behavioral simulation complements what demand planners are already doing
01:30 The advancements in planning brought about by COVID
04:00 Tempur Sealy's Director of Demand Planning
05:21 Tempur Sealy's 300% increase in sales during COVID
07:10 How Tempur Sealy reacted to spikes in demand
07:43 How COVID made Tempur Sealy switch to S&OE
10:25 Did they keep S&OE after COVID/
11:03 The value of segmentation
12:09 Why Tempur Sealy consolidated their 2 ERP systems
14:18 Dual sourcing and pivoting to alternate suppliers
16:45 Arkieva as a planning tool
17:15 Leveraging CPFR to partner with suppliers
21:36 Catalysts for change and taking risks
24:24 Demand sensing, hyper automation
02:18 Can S&OP be done remotely?
03:45 Kevin Reim, VP Fulfilment Operations, L'Oréal
05:05 Why hybrid S&OP works - and is even more effective
06:10 Does lack of close contact hinder trust and collaboration?
07:57 Workplace politics has increased post-COVID
10:30 People are less inclined to engage when behind a camera
12:30 Does virtual working create a level playing field across regions?
14:10 Virtual working drives focus
14:40 Adapting your S&OP to a remote/hybrid environment
15:55 Virtual working makes S&OP meetings shorter
17:17 So it works but what about new people coming in?
17:49 Tip1: Create a structured process, cadence and follow ups
22:26 Tip 2: Don't micromanage meetings
23:47 Tip 3: Adopt new communication tools
24:45 Tip 4: Get Your &OP Champion to Step Up
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
02:11 The new normal of digital S&OP/IBP
06:00 S&OP is still being relegated to a supply chain function
06:45 Supply chain folks are too tactical
07:50 Day-to-day S&OP isn't working in the digital world
08:53 Lack of close contact hinders trust and collaboration
11:00 Getting people to engage on video calls
15:10 Remote working is taking the decision making out of S&OP/IBP
18:25 The positives to remote S&OP/IBP
20:20 Is S&OP/IBP more efficient when done remotely?
23:10 Tips for driving success in S&OP/IBP
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
00:00 Introduction
01:23 Orlando Forecasting, Planning & S&OP Conference
02:30 How Starbucks uses your data to make you spend more
03:50 Data analytics still comes down to people and process
06:10 The planning challenges Starbucks has to overcome
09:50 Connecting demand planning to strategic planning to optimize the business
12:02 Scenario planning multiple scenarios is the future
14:40 Will software tools be able to handle scenario planning automatically?
16:00 Integrating predictive technologies and supply responses
17:50 Demand planning requires analytical skills and creativity
20:50 Retaining talent in a competitive market
22:40 Demand planning is about people and their behavior is changing
02:00 IBF S&OP Maturity Model
03:48 What makes a Vanguard S&OP process
05:40 Is there a difference between basic S&OP and best-in-class S&OP?
08:30 Getting executives onboard
10:50 The bias towards decision making
12:45 From functional siloes to end-to-end value chain
13:55 COVID encouraged companies to implement S&OP
18:30 Myth's that hold companies back from S&OP success
21:17 Continuous improvement
26:00 The next big thing in S&OP
00:00 Introduction
02:20 What companies did to survive the pandemic
04:18 Dr. Barry Keating - Predictive Analytics expert
05:40 Is Predictive Analytics really any different?
07:43 The difference between time series and Predictive Analytics
08:33 Time series forecasting isn't going away
09:05 The rise of predictive analytics
10:01 Moving from static data to data with different dimensions
12:25 How do we identify what data is useful and what isn’t?
14:55 Can we do advanced analytics without coding skills?
20:10 How do you comfortable with advanced algorithms?
26:00 Defining what Predictive Analytics is
00:00 Introduction
01:54 Economic outlook - higher inventory and higher costs
05:00 S&OP/IBP is focusing on supply chain costs
08:20 Does Finance see the value of S&OP?
09:55 No difference between S&OP and a financial rolling forecast
10:10 If you don't understand resources consumption you can't get cash right
11:58 Integrated S&OP vs S&OP
14:50 Who owns the trade off between customer orders, perfect order fulfilment, and days in receivable?
17:00 Can't do cash flow forecasting without a supply chain model
20:35 Every Finance person will want a prescriptive analytics tool
20:11 Advantages of looking at the balance sheet, not just the income sheet
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
02:14 Chicago S&OP/IBP Conference, June 17
04:10 S&OP is about decision making
04:50 Rachel Stafford CPF, S&OP expert
06:25 Why is it so hard to make decisions in S&OP?
08:30 S&OE for tactical decision-making
10:25 War and inflation: the demand variables that S&OP must address
12:12 Is S&OP not agile enough?
14:54 How to keep focus on decision making in S&OP
17:44 Companies shortened S&OP cadence for COVID - time to reset?
19:43 Preparing for effective S&OP meetings
21:16 Gaining consensus virtually vs face-to-face
25:38 Improving S&OP with training, maturity models
29:33 Collaboration, consensus and transparency
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
00:00 Intro
01:21 IBF Conferences https://ibf.org/forecasting-and-plann...
02:48 A peak inside my forecasting tool box
05:00 The types of forecasting methods available to you
08:33 How to decide which method to use - accuracy vs interpretability
12:41 The most common methods used in business forecasting
13:36 Judgmental methods: sales force, jury method, expert opinion, Delphi method
17:09 Time series forecasting: naïve, average, decomposition, exponential smoothing
23:55 Causal and relationship methods: simple linear, multiples, logistic, ratios
26:30 Machine learning: Bayesian, logistic, trees, neural networks"
28:30 Clustering: constraint, hierarchical, distribution, centroid
30:45 How to pick the best model
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
00:00 Intro
04:19 How to you keep teams engaged during S&OP transformation projects
06:07 How to get different functions talking the same language
07:45 The "yes and" principle
08:50 Using data and KPIs to reaching consensus across the organization
10:39 The value of cross-functional change management team
11:50 Using external training to unite people towards the goal
14:55 The biggest benefit of external training for S&OP organizations
16:35 Cutting out unnecessary meetings
18:35 What IBF training does for S&OP organizations
22:22 First step if you're considering S&OP training
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
00:00 Intro
01:15 Online Training Course in Demand Planning, Forecasting & Planning
02:44 Write for the Journal of Business Forecasting or www.demand-planning.com
05:00 Women in demand planning
09:45 Demand planning at Tesla
14:43 How to attract more women to demand planning
17:12 The impact of diversity on business performance
29:30 Come speak at an IBF conference or write an article
Get Eric's book, 'Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting' here: https://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-book
Come to IBF's Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting Conference from April 26-28. Details & registration: https://bit.ly/3qfU2hF
00:00 Introduction
01:57 M6 Forecasting Competition - forecasting Walmart sales
03:25 Forecasting wizard, Gee Thompson
05:20 Gee's approach to the Walmart forecasting competition
08:00 Why Gee goes against the machine learning trend
09:35 Proving there's a place for traditional statistical models and human intelligence
12:43 Manual multipliers for seasonality
14:30 Explaining the Innovation State Space Model - is it a kind of Holt Winters method?
22:05 Probabilistic forecasting is here to stay
25:30 How to integrate ML into statistical forecasting
01:58 Recapping what S&OP/IBP is and don't worry about the acronym they're calling it
05:00 Get IBF to help you implement S&OP/IBP
07:44 What we're getting out of a good S&OP/IBP process
10:00 Percentage improvement to your bottom line you can expect
12:00 Where the bottom line improvements come from
13:08 The other, non-tangible benefits of S&OP/IBP
14:50 Annualized ROI for a $500 m company
17:43 Improvements in operating costs
16:15 Top top line growth
16:30 Inventory improvements
16:48 Forecast accuracy
19:30 How long it takes to see the benefits
25:00 Caution - these results are based on mature/Vanguard organizations
26:46 Use IBF's S&OP maturity model for free
29:35 IBF training and conferences ibf.org/events
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
01:48 IBF events are back! Starting with S&OP/IBP Boot Camp
03:44 Showing the value of S&OP/IBP and ROI from implementation
08:30 4 major costs: acquisition, implementation, operating, improvement
09:40 Cost 1: Acquisition costs
15:17 Cost 2: Implementation costs (including training)
18:40 IBF consulting and assessments
22:22 Cost 3: Operating costs
26:01 Cost 4: Improvement costs
27:50 Total costs
30:28 Is it worth it? Measuring the upside
Register for IBF's S&OP/IBP Boot Camp in Scottsdale from February 16-18: https://bit.ly/IBFSCOTTSDALE
IBF's S&OP/IBP consulting and assessments: https://bit.ly/IBF-CONSULTING
01:44 S&OP needs a strategy
02:45 Dr. Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics'
05:30 The supply chain triangle: service, cost and cash
08:00 Strategic S&OP
11:27 Pick your strategy: Product Leadership, Customer Intimacy or Operational Excellence
17:07 Workout a strategy for S&OP you will lose
20:33 How does COVID impact S&OP strategy?
24:40 Best KPIs for the cost, service and cash triangle
27:00 How Business Efficiency Planning (BEP) helps connect planning to strategy
31:37 Scottsdale S&OP/IBP Boot Camp, February 16-18
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
See IBF's list of 2022 of training events and conferences: https://bit.ly/IBFEVENTS
01:30 Beware inflation - how it will impact your business
05:44 Finance's role in IBP - financializing the plan
07:43 IBP is a mechanism for implementing strategy
09:00 What happens when Finance doesn't trust the forecast/demand plan
12:38 How do you get Finance to use your plans?
18:18 Making IBP more strategic for the longer term
26:50 Differences between the forecast and the budget
27:42 Incorporate changes as they occur, understand drivers of demand
28:42 Using IBP for long term visibility into P&L
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
01:38 CEO's don't get demand planning
03:52 #1 Forecast error is not the goal
08:15 #2: Forecasts are not the same as targets
11:47 #3: Don't manipulate the forecast to justify decisions
16:09 #4: Stop making our job harder!
23:10 #5: Success depends on specialization
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Learn more about forecastability here: https://bit.ly/2YNAfvn
01:15 Why do we assume forecast accuracy should be the same for all items?
05:05 What is forecastability?
06:55 Are all items forecastable?
08:20 Items are becoming increasingly unforecastable
09:35 What kind of forecast error should we accept today?
12:49 How to know if our items are forecastable or not
18:05 Coefficient of variation and seasonality
19:45 Should we expect more error now following Covid?
22:25 What to do with long tail, unforecastable SKUs
27:10 Identifying causal factors in the noise
29:54 How good are you at forecasting? Using Forecast Value Add
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Interview with Jake Barr, CEO of BlueWorld Supply Chain Consulting.
04:49 What is going wrong with supply chains right now, and how long will it last?
09:30 How forecasting and planning can help mitigate the impact of supply chain chaos.
11:44 2022, the year of 'anti-lean'
15:53 Overreacting to supply shortages and overbuilding inventory
18:13 The true extent of the supply shortages including medicines
21:20 Balancing cost, margin and cash amid supply disruption
26:27 Buying inventory - calculating what you're willing to pay and what you're willing to lose
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Use IBF's S&OP Maturity Model: https://ibf.org/sop-maturity-model
Join us for IBF Orlando Conference: https://ibf.org/events/orlando2021
02:00 IBP, S&OP, BEP - what's the difference?
03:55 Executive support
04:20 Time horizon
04:45 Higher levels of aggregation
05:45 Cadence
06:20 Review steps
07:00 Unconstrained view of demand
11:30 One number attitude
17:15 Collaboration, communication and transparency
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Setting Up S&OP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmU8p...
S&OP & S&OE with Jeff Baker: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2Wga...
Join us at IBF Orlando in October: https://ibf.org/events/orlando2021
00:59 Join us at IBF Orlando from October 19-22
01:41 The ingredients of S&OP
03:38 Ingredient 1: Executive support
06:41 Ingredient 2: Time horizons
10:29 Ingredient 3: Levels of aggregation
13:57 Ingredient 4: Cycle and cadence
18:42 Ingredient 5: S&OP review
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
01:35 Half of people won't go back to the office after remote working
02:26 What does remote working mean for demand planners?
04:25 Remote working isn't quite taking over as some people think
06:20 Most demand planning jobs are NOT remote
07:46 Nearly all remote roles are individual contributor roles, not leadership roles
08:00 Strength of the demand planning job market right now
09:53 What are employee expectations for new roles?
11:51 Will employees or companies dictate the future of remote work?
14:08 Advantages and disadvantages of working in the office
19:35 The importance of relationships
01:40 Setting expectations for the first 6 months of S&OP
03:30 Perceptions vs vs reality when you start S&OP - losing flexibility
08:16 The S&OP combo strategy
10:47 Segmentation in S&OP
17:45 Service Level Agreements in S&OP
21:46 Tracking and reporting
23:44 Most important step when starting S&OP
25:54: Get executive buy in and find he quick wins
IBF Conferences are back! Join us for IBF's Business Forecasting, Planning & S&OP Best Practices Conference in Orlando from October 19-22, 2021. Click here for more info: https://ibf.org/events/orlando2021
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
This week I talk to Jonathan Karelse of North Find Management about how I am 100% perfect and other people are biased and wrong.
02:37 I'm not biased but you definitely are
06:00 Jonathan's research into identifying bias in Demand Planners
08:34 The Dunning Kreuger effects
10:11 The representative heuristic
11:11 The availability heuristic
12:46 Intertemporal discounting
13:44 The shocking extent to which people are biased
14:20 An example of the framing effect/anchor bias
19:15 Overconfidence - the most insidious of all biases
21:40 Cluster illusion - the Achille's Heel of Demand Planners
23:48 How to overcome our own biases
28:40 Don't add or use what cannot be measured
Show less
01:25 www.demand-planning.com, the leading resource for Demand Planners
02:48 demand planning and inventory management
04:44 The reasons to hold inventory beyond your current lead times
06:21 When increasing inventory decreases costs
10:41 Balancing cost, cash and service
13:47 Calculating safety stock
25:15 Improving your inventory with IBF consulting
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting Get your IBF membership: https://ibf.org/ibfmembership
01:28 Forecast analyst and demand planning roles are in high demand
02:40 Colleges are not preparing students for demand planning
05:50 What an IBF chapter is
08:38 How IBF chapters at bridge the gap between theory and practice
10:15 Leveraging IBF chapters for networking
12:15 Why a UC Berkeley student set up an IBF chapter
13:45 The benefit of diversity of ideas from different industries
16:23 The disconnect between the academics and realities of demand planning
19:50 Advice for students coming into the world of demand planning
21:15 Soft skills for more technical students entering the workplace
25:58 How hiring managers can help universities train the new generation of demand planners
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Check out IBF's events (face-to-face and virtual): https://ibf.org/forecasting-and-plann...
Become an IBF member: https://ibf.org/ibfmembership
Check out Jennifer's article in the Journal of Business Forecasting: https://ibf.org/knowledge/jbf-article...
02:15 Getting the younger generation into demand planning
03:57 Perspectives from the younger generation in demand planning
08:08: Tips for starting your first demand planning job - knowing product lines
09:50 Tips for starting your first demand planning job - building relationships to get the data you need
10:41 Tips for starting your first demand planning job - learning executive communication
13:42 Networking tips
15:33 Improving communication skills if you're more analytical
18:08 What to look for in a new role and boss
20:40 Where students and graduates can find information about the field
22:30 How to be attractive to employers in demand planning/supply chain
29:10 Advice for young people to succeed in this field - build you brand and take risks
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
Check out IBF's events (face-to-face and virtual): https://ibf.org/forecasting-and-plann...
Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
Check out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
00:00 If you forecast a sale but you're out of stock, did the sale actually happen?
01:11 Unconstrained forecasts vs constrained forecasts
05:15 When do constraints become part of the forecast?
08:50 The slushy zone
11:11 What kind of constraints to add in to the plan?
12:35 Is changing consumer behavior a constraint?
15:35 Demand shaping
16:42 How to keep up with the speed of change today
18:35 What if scenarios
21:00 Where to incorporate constraints in the S&OP process
25:30 It all depends what the purpose of the forecast is
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting.
Become an IBF member: https://ibf.org/ibfmembership
01:18 Why data visualization is so important for demand planners
02:44 Introducing Kate Strachnyi of Datacated
05:17 How to choose the right visualization for your data set
07:04 Tips and tricks for communicating data
10:23 Don't visualize something just because you can
11:43 The role of text to use in data visualizations
14:49 What tools do you need?
15:54 BINGO Analysis
16:24 Visualization in Excel
18:55 Pitfalls to avoid in data visualization
20:30 The best place to start with data visualization for demand forecasting
23:06 Data visualization is for you, not just your audience
25:00 Resources available at Datacated to help demand planners and forecasters
BF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Click here for an excellent free webinar on securing S&OP investment: http://bit.ly/bram-business-case
Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE
Found out more about IBF at www.ibf.org
Get Demand Planning insight at demand-planning.com
02:12 Why are we doing this podcast?
03:44 What are the basic KPIs should be included in the demand review?
08:02 What does a best-in-class demand planning process look like?
11:55 How do you justify hiring a demand planner to executives?
17:30 How can I explain bad KPIs?
22:25 How should I approach data cleansing?
20:21 Did you accurately forecast sales of your Predictive Analytics book?
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting
I interview John Davis, VP of Finance at Tempur Sealy, to discuss how and why Demand Planning and Finance should use S&OP to work together.
Virtual FP&A Conference June 16-18 do you want to speak at this leading event? Express your interest here and we'll get back to you: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CMJ9VC6
Eric's new Book, Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting which is available for purchase at http://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-book
04:33 How demand planning and Finance worked together at Tempur Sealy
06:50 What Finance wants to get from S&OP
08:55 One number attitude at Tempur Sealy
13:37 How S&OP helps with product launches by telling a story with data
15:35 How the VP of Finance at Tempur Sealy built the Finance organization to collaborate cross-functionally
18:26 What FP&A does for the business
22:15 Do we need a yearly budget?
26:00 What demand planners, supply planners and data scientists need to know about FP&A
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here:
Eric interviews his most illustrious guest yet - himself. Eric dives into Eric's new Book, Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting which is available for purchase at http://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-book
04:13 Interview Eric Wilson, author of Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting
04:42 What is Demand Planning 2.0?
06:00 What has caused predictive analytics to become a top right priority in 2021?
07:54 How does Covid-19 relate to Predictive Analytics?
10:45 Who is Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting for?
19:30 Predictive Analytics models
27:40 Differences between Business Intelligence, Business Forecasting, and Machine Learning
29:10 Is Predictive Analytics replacing time series forecasting?
Interview with Dr. Larry Lapide, MIT Research Affiliate, former demand planner, and columnist in the Journal of Business Forecasting.
04.30 Forecasting downturns in your business
06.30 Communicating downturns to executives
08:50 Techniques to deliver bad news to business partners
11:00 Know your facts, figures and assumptions
15:00 Handling the human side when lower forecasts will result in layoffs
17:20 Provide estimate of forecastability/risk profile
18:50 Stay out of politics
20:40 Advice for people new to demand planning
01:25 IBF's S&OP Maturity Model
02:15 Transformation projects requires an initial assessment
03:15 The value of benchmarking before improving S&OP
06:55 The value of S&OP during Covid-19
09:24 IBF's maturity model is independent and unbiased and doesn't push you towards a software solution
14:25 How to use the Maturity Model
20:18 The outputs and recommendations
Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/forecast-accuracy-webinar
Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE
In this special holiday episode I speak to Rex and Ashni, 2 experts in the field who happen to be 6 years old. They might just be able to forecast better than you!
We can learn a lot from children because they don't bring bias into their thinking, and we all know that bias can kill your forecast accuracy. Kids are also wrong with confidence - a key trait of a successful Demand Planner. They also don't sweat the small stuff, don't worry about ambiguity, and always ask "why" - all keys advantages in demand planning.
09:40 Getting rid of bias in our forecasting
10:44 Why a child's curiosity is highly valuable
11:58 Being wrong with confidence
14:29 Ask a lot of questions and ask "why?"
15:00 Think anything is possible
16:45 Fail fast
21:35 Always be learning
Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/3hCcw62
Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE
02:00 What skills are companies prioritizing for the next 5 years?
05:00 Introducing Jessica Lackey, Demand Planning Director and Life Coach
06:25 Core competencies of a demand planner
07:20 Can soft skills be taught?
08:00 Getting data to show demand planners that lack of soft skills increases forecast error.
11:00 Developing teams based on core competencies
12:10 Book club for learning and shared language
14:45 Myers Briggs/strength finding
16:34 Top 3 skills in 5 years time
18:15 Stop being a victim and take ownership of how to live your life
21:10 How forecasts can get more influence in the organization
24:25 Top 3 core competencies in demand planning from IBF research
Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/3hCcw62
Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE
02:22 Contribute an article to the Journal of Business forecasting. Email the editor at andrews@ibf.org for more information.
03:47: How do you forecast after Covid-19 when forecast data is no longer relevant?
05:10 What is an outlier?
08:30 How companies are approaching Covid data/outliers.
08:50 Smoothing historical data .
12:04 Pruning historical data.
13:35 Replacing historical data for the Covid period.
16:17 Understand and improve methods and process.
22:59 Be careful with your assumptions.
24:20 Manual overrides with qualitative judgement/emerging information.
27:48 Predictive analytics to look more types of data.
Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning:
Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE
I talk to demand planning expert and long-time contributor to IBF's publications, Daniel Fitzpatrick. He shares how he channels his inner Bob Ross to get a handle on the art aspect of demand planning, and combining it with the science to approach demand planning as a 'craft'. Every week he gets out of the office and into stores to understand the the non-quantitative assumptions to place the numbers in context and to feed back to the sales team. Remember that as one thing becomes commoditized (the science/analytics), something else becomes a premium, and that is the art side of our profession.
02:10 Art and science in demand planning
04:25 Introducing Daniel Fitzpatrick
06:16 Why demand planners should get out of the office and into store locations
10:00 Making assumptions about competing products and how that impacts forecasts
11:00 Is your product even on the shelf?
14:00 Demand Planners and stores often work to different timescales
15:21 Taking ownership of your products
16:52 Incorporating observations at stores into your forecasting
19:00 Challenging salespeople on their assumptions
21:34 Art and science when it comes to Covid-19
28:25 Why the art element is crucial as we move into the predictive analytics age
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IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcast
IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas - all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT
What is predictive analytics and how does it work? I bring in Eric Siegel to help answer that question because two Eric's are better than one! He is author of the bestseller, 'Predictive Analytics, The Power To Predict Who Will Click, Buy Lie Or Die', former Columbia University professor, founder of Predictive Analytics World, and rapper (seriously!). Demand planning will become the home of predictive analytics, so let's get ready for it now.
05:00 What is predictive analytics?
06:00 The overlap between forecasting and predictive analytics.
07:13 Why are predictive and analytics revolutionizing business?
09:20 Is predictive analytics as complicated as it sounds?
11:30 How machine learning works.
13:25 Logistic regression.
15:33 Big Data and training data.
15:58 Finding the right predictive model.
20:20 Ensemble models and the wisdom of averages.
23:10 Uplift modeling/persuasion modeling to create the future.
27:15 How to gain knowledge in predictive analytics.
33:00 My new book on predictive analytics (coming soon!).
34:35 Arkieva's Swiftcast.
IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcast
IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas - all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT
You and I know the value of demand planning and predictive analytics but does anybody else? Getting the resources you need to build an effective demand planning function is difficult and it won't happen unless you go after it. And that means making sure everybody knows the value it brings to senior leaders and other departments. Here's how to get the engagement, support and trust you need for your demand planning and analytics function to succeed.
03.25: how to get engagement for demand planning
06:35 Learn others languages, especially that of executives so they understand what you're saying.
09:55 Educating others about demand planning so they see the value.
12:00 Building your demand planning brand.
14:05 Find a sponsor, champion and mentor to break down barriers and be your spokesperson.
16:25: Be a salesman because they won't come to you.
24:55 You don't always get what what you want and that's OK.
Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
Check out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find our more about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas - all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT
I interview Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy And Financial Metrics', the book every executive and CEO should read! It deals with balancing the supply chain triangle of service, cost and cash and how your product strategy directly impacts how this triangle is balanced. Different strategies have different levels of complexity which come with different levels of cost, which drives different levels of inventory, and different levels of investment in fixed assets.
05:40 How your product strategy defines product complexity, inventory and cash flow
09:50 Balancing the service, cost and cash triangle
11:00 Why Lego has very poor inventory turns and why that isn't a problem
12:40 How strategy impacts how your balance the service, cost and cash triangle
14:35 EBITDA, days of inventory and working capital
17:50 Understanding ROI for capital deployed with ROCE
20:45 Rebalancing the triangle during Covid-19
25:00 How forecast accuracy impacts the service, cost and cash triangle
30:30 My experience of different company strategies and how they impact inventory management and service levels
Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
Check out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
IBF on Demand, sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performance
See how IBF's S&OP assessments help your company get started in S&OP or improve existing processes with industry-leading bench-marking and recommendations: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT
What exactly are the new 5 steps in S&OP for 2020? I interview demand planning guru and self-proclaimed S&OP nerd Pat Bower. Sr. Director Global Supply Chain Planning & Customer Service at Combe Inc. We discuss what best in class S&OP looks like, what process steps you need and how to get started with your S&OP process.
04:00 Special guest Pat Bower, self-proclaimed S&OP nerd and demand planning leader
05:35 How many steps we need in an S&OP process
10:16 Is the traditional 5 step process from the 1990's still viable?
12:20 Best practices for data gathering and the Product Review
14:40 Why SKUs are growing and inventory turns look unusual compared to the past
16:40 What needs to lie within S&OP and what lies outside it?
23:40 Looping S&OP back to feed functional and operational systems
25:10 Newcomers! Start with demand then move to supply, and don't try to do all steps at once
28:05 Three golden rules to remember about S&OP
33:50 How IBF's S&OP and assessments get your company on the path to S&OP success
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
SHOW LESS
Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performance
Right now nearly half of companies have abandoned S&OP and moved to S&OE (Sales & Operations Execution) to help manage the current demand disruptions. But is it a good idea, and what does a good S&OE process look like? I invited S&OP expert Jeff Baker to reveal best practices and how S&OP and S&OE can work together to both "firefight" the short term demand volatility while managing the longer term strategy.
02:58 46% of companies are on a weekly S&OP cycle. Is that a good idea?
05:11 S&OP expert Jeff Baker explains what S&OE is
09:24 Differences between S&OP & S&OE
10:40 What does a weekly S&OP process look like?
12:54 What are the inputs into the S&OE meeting?
18:15 Point of Sale data for demand sensing
19:49 Time fences and lead time to set your S&OP meeting cadence
21:06 Overview of S&OE
21:40 Should you choose either S&OP or S&OE or have both?
25:20 Should you start with S&OP or S&OE?
28:27 Why S&OP fails
29:05 The power of communication, collaboration and transparency during times of difficulty
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand episode 10 sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: https://bit.ly/forecast-modeling
Become an IBF member here: https://bit.ly/ibf-membership
I get on my soap box and explain why that statement is wrong and how you can, in fact, be 100% right. I also discuss why moving away from just a point forecast to forecast ranges (and getting comfortable with uncertainty) provides so much more value to decision makers. By changing our mindset, we can reveal the real value lying in variability. After all, our role is not to be precise, but to provide useful insights.
02:00 IBF membership - the demand planning club that helps your career
03:15 Why saying "forecasts are always wrong" harms us and our companies
05:28 Your job is not about numbers, but about insights
08:25 Getting comfortable with ambiguity
10:10 Becoming probabilistic thinkers - forecasting ranges vs. single numbers
14:14 Measuring forecast error and my favorite KPI
15:18 The valuable information lying in uncertainty and variability that decision makers need to know
21:15 Providing the right forecast range with cones of uncertainty
23:05 Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and Demand Variation Index (DVI)
27:18 Using the right KPIs to measure the full spectrum of uncertainty
30:18 The goal is not to be precise but to provide useful insights
Article on eScore, a measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula: https://demand-planning.com/2018/08/16/introducing-escore-simplified-mape-for-todays-business/
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand Episode 9 (28.6.20)
Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://arkieva.com/software/demand-planning/
Learn about IBF 's world-leading consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT
Data Scientists Suck At Demand Planning! Or do they? Can they learn the required skills? Conversely, can demand planners learn new data science skills? I interview author of 'Data Science For Supply Chain Forecast', Nicholas Vandeput, and examine the differences and similarities between data scientists and demand planners, and how we need to learn from each other.
02:12 Forecast accuracy by university degree
04:30 Data scientists make horrible demand planners
06:16 Mindset of data scientists
07:35 Experimenting in data science
12:55 Differences between data scientist and demand planning roles
14:04 Will data scientists do the modeling then hand over to a demand planner?
16:45 Should we get data scientists into demand planning, or do we keep them as separate roles?
17:00 Human judgement, collaboration and data science
20:10 Will data science be part of supply chain or will demand planning be a data science function?
20:25 The value if an independent analytics function
25:48 The importance of knowing new models and techniques
29:13 Demand planners need to adapt
34:50 IBF maturity assessments to establish forecasting and analytics functions
35:19 The ultimate goal of a centralized planning and data scientist function
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand Episode 8 (13.6.20)
Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-planning-solution
Learn about IBF 's world-leading cooperate consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT
Here I talk about demand planning as career and what it can do you for you. The role of demand planner is always important, but especially now as companies rely on the visibility and planning to survive. That means demand planners and forecast analysts are highly paid professionals. If you're the right person for this role, then you're set for a very rewarding career. But what skills do you need?
07:10 CEOs reporting forecasting as key priority
08:00 Demand planning is no longer a supply chain function
08:45 Demand planning salaries
11:30 What skills do you need to be a demand planner?
13:00 Passion trumps knowledge when it comes to succeeding
17:00 Resources to learn about the field
21:10 Creating a career map
24:25 The best degrees for demand planning
26:00 Getting certified to build your career
27:04 Developing confidence
30:40 IBF jobs board
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
07:28 What supply planners do
10:00 The central plan and changing culture
13:25 One number forecasts vs. one set of assumptions
18:23 Time horizons in supply planning
21:21 Supply planning lead times and frozen zones
27:00 Understanding the fundamentals of the planning process
30:48 Recommendations to build bridges with supply planning
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand Episode 6 (19.5.20)
Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-management-reso...
Here I discuss Forecast Value Added (FVA) with special guest Sara Park, Vice President, Exec S&OP, Forecasting COE and Supply Chain Planning at The Coca-Cola Company. We discuss how to use FVA to determine which forecasting models, inputs, or activities are either adding value or are actually making it worse. This technique can be game-changer for your forecast accuracy.
08:00 Collaborating with other functions to get the inputs that are either helping or hurting
12:15 Knowing which functions help or hurt forecast accuracy
14:55 FVA at the item level
16:00 Getting started with FVA
17:28 FVA for mature organizations
19:19 What's a good FVA percentage?
22:50 Why FVA is better than MPE and MAPE
26:54 5 best practices when using FVA
Useful article on FVA: https://demand-planning.com/2018/02/1...
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand Episode 5: Is S&OP Dead & What Would Replace It?
Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/demand-planning-perfor....
S&OP isn't adding value for most companies, failing to improve key KPIs like days of inventory or customer service. Eric Wilson discusses whether this 32 year old process is fit or for purpose and whether it should be killed off, or adapted and saved. He presents the 5 tenets off effective S&OP that allow to it become a true business-wide process.
01:15 S&OP is failing in key KPIs
05:00 What S&OP needs to do
08:27 Turning S&OP into a business process
12:23 S&OP Strategy for decision making
16:43 Getting people involved and cross functional culture
17:48 Metrics to track effectiveness of S&OP
23:38 Enabling S&OP with technology
Read about Decision Mapping: https://bit.ly/2yyLxpZ-decision-mapping
S&OP Research Report: https://bit.ly/2yoeftV-SOP-research-r...
Bram Desmet's book: Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics: The Supply Chain Triangle Of Service, Cost And Cash
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
Over 70% of predictive analytics implementation initiatives fail. Eric Wilson CPF and special guest, Misty Doan CPF, dive into how to make digital transformation work. Hear how Misty achieved a 26% improvement in forecast accuracy after 18 months, reduced excess inventory, increased fill rates by 10%, and reduced premium freight costs and fines by 17%. And hear Eric's 5 tips for digital transformation success.
Useful article on change management: www.demand-planning.com/2018/01/25/want-to-implement-sop-first-you-must-become-an-architect-of-change/
Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out more about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand Episode 3 (3.4.20)
Sponsored by Arkieva.
Eric talks to special guest, demand planning expert Andrew Schneider ACPF, to answer a fan question about segmentation and clustering. They explore multidimensional segmentation of items, going beyond standard Pareto distribution to find hidden correlations and reveal which items you need to prioritize.
Check us out at ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.com
Check out our sponsor at www.arkieva.com
IBF on Demand Episode 2 (14.3.20). Learn about Arkieva's What-if Scenario Planning: bit.ly/what-if-planning
"The world is coming to an end, we're all going to die, and you didn't get that forecast right." How do you forecast black swan events like Coronavirus? Short answer is you don't because if you could predict them, they wouldn't be black swan events. But what we do as demand planners when they happen really matters.
Check us out at ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.com
IBF on Demand Episode 1 (4.3.20)
Learn about AI-driven forecasting with Arkieva: bit.ly/smart-forecast-ai
Welcome to the very first episode of IBF On Demand. In this episode, I discuss the impact of AI and machine learning on demand planning and forecasting. I also discuss Big Data and the challenges and opportunities it presents, and how you can survive and thrive in this new era.
Check us out at www.ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.com
Check out our sponsor at arkieva.com