Indications: Recent Episodes
The Conference Board
A serious conversation on the global economy grounded in the data, insights, and outlooks you need to stay ahead of the curve in business and beyond. The Conference Board is a leading think tank and non-profit business membership group that's been at the vanguard of navigating economic change since 1916. Our research ushered in the 8-hour workday; shaped policy during the Great Depression and both world wars; and facilitated the inclusion of women, minorities, and the disabled into the workforce. Indications puts our forward-thinking—and roster of leading thinkers—to bear on today's most pressing challenges: from global growth and competitiveness to human capital, sustainability, corporate governance, and more.
With 163 million employed workers, employment in the Euro Area has reached record-high levels in Q2 2022. Although hiring expectations are on a downward trend since March across all industries, the labor market is currently incredibly tight. Marion Devine, Associate Director for Insights on Human Capital, and Bettina Schaller, Senior Vice President Public Affairs for Adecco, and President of the World Employment Confederation discuss with Conference Board Ilaria Maselli how companies can improve the mental and financial wellbeing of workers, how demographic change is transforming the labor force, and how Gen-Z will change the way we work.
With 163 million employed workers, employment in the Euro Area has reached record-high levels in Q2 2022. Although hiring expectations are on a downward trend since March across all industries, the labor market is currently incredibly tight. Marion Devine, Associate Director for Insights on Human Capital, and Bettina Schaller, Senior Vice President Public Affairs for Adecco, and President of the World Employment Confederation discuss with Conference Board Ilaria Maselli how companies can improve the mental and financial wellbeing of workers, how demographic change is transforming the labor force, and how Gen-Z will change the way we work.
Despite having more than doubled since 2010, renewable energy makes up less than 20 percent in the US’ electricity mix. In this podcast episode, chief economist Dana Peterson discusses with senior economists Alex Heil and Erin McLaughlin the trends in the energy sector and how those affect businesses and households. They cover the uneven playing field in various states in the US, the costs of renewables and battery technologies, potential obstacles to a greater adoption of renewables, and what role federal and local policies play.
You can find our report, Renewable Sources, here: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/tags.cfm?parent=energy-global-growth&child=State-of-Renewable-Energy-2022
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased for the third consecutive month in July, following a larger decline in June. The Index now stands at 95.7 (1985=100), down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board as she talks with Chief Economist Dana Peterson about how inflation and additional Fed rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell again in June
Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson as they discuss why the risk of recession is rising, the one thing sparking confidence in consumers about the economy, and why the inflation expectation measure spiked to an all-time high.
A new set of lockdowns and the recent bond with Russia are reshaping the way businesses view China. In this podcast Ilaria Maselli asks David Hoffman – Senior VP Asia – to share views on the outlook for the economic recovery in China after the end of the lockdowns, how long China will stick to its zero-COVID policy, and the nature of the Sino-Russian relation. They also discuss what the war in Ukraine tells us about Taiwan, and how multinational companies view the future of doing business in China in the new geopolitical environment. See here the report Taiwan ≠ Ukraine: A Pragmatic Assessment.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased slightly in May, following a small increase in April (after an upward revision). Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board as she talks with Chief Economist Dana Peterson about how inflation, rising interest rates and perceived softening in the labor market all played a part in this month’s survey.
How does the use of financial services vary across Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White (Non-Hispanic) consumers in the US, and how can companies address existing services gaps? And how do multicultural consumers use restaurants, travel, personal services, education, and other services to express their ethnic origins, and what this all means for companies as US demographics are changing?
Listen to this conversation by Ivan Pollard, Leader of the Marketing & Communications Center, with Dana Peterson, Chief Economist, and Denise Dahlhoff, Senior Researcher, about The Conference Board’s latest findings from its multicultural research series in collaboration with General Mills.
Semiconductors are found in just about everything we use – from cars to cell phones to refrigerators. But there seems to not be enough of them, and in the right places.
Are we experiencing a computer chip crisis or is this sentiment overblown? How are semiconductors fueling inflation and affecting supply chains? What are businesses doing to overcome the challenges? What are opportunities for both users and producers of such a critical input?
Listen, learn, and act!
In this podcast, Claudio Murri, Council Director for the Public Affairs Executives Council, discusses with two seasoned practitioners from the public affairs/government relations Brussels-based community how the conflict in Ukraine has impacted their profession. The current war has put even more pressure on the ethical and value-based aspects of the role and is changing the rules of engagement with policymakers. At a time when business leaders are increasingly being pushed to base their investment decisions on geopolitical – as well as pure commercial – considerations, Murri, explores how the role of public affairs professionals as strategic advisors, both inside and outside companies and organizations, is possibly becoming more relevant.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased slightly in April, after an increase in March. Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson as they discuss how concerns about inflation retreated from an all-time high, but remain elevated, and how inflation and the war in Ukraine may further curb consumer spending this year.
A new podcast by The Conference Board unpacks the war in Ukraine’s implications for global energy markets and prices. In the conversation, Robin Mills, CEO at Qamar Energy, and Hiba Itani, Economist at The Conference Board, discuss the risks of embargos on Russian oil, along with which economies might be able to ramp up supplies and when. They also cover what governments can do to help support businesses, consumers, and vulnerable economies from the repercussions of surging oil prices.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in March 2022. While the highest recorded figure of consumers say jobs are plentiful, their expectations declined.
Join this podcast with Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson and Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators as they discuss key drivers of these expectations, how consumers can be more optimistic going forward, and what makes The Conference Board survey different from others that are showing a weakening in consumer confidence.
Finance is playing a central role in the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. From sanctions to crypto assets, we discuss how governments are using access to the global financial system to pressure an end to the violence and human suffering. Moreover, how Russia is finding alternatives to traditional finance. We also explore how businesses can protect themselves from financial exposure amid the ongoing crisis.
By listening to this podcast you will:
- Understand how governments are using finance to address the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Learn about financial sanctions and how are they affecting markets and business operations.
- Discover the importance of alternatives to SWIFT and traditional credit, plus crypto assets amid the war.
- Garner insights on financial risks to businesses affected by the crisis and how to respond.
Why does the West continue to misunderstand Russia’s drive? What is China’s role, and what does their unlimited friendship really mean? What do organizations need to be doing in terms of business continuity plans, in the event of a Russian cyber operation attack? In this podcast Sara Murray, Managing Director, International of The Conference Board is joined in by guest, Keir Giles to explore these issues.
Giles is a British writer and expert on security issues affecting Russia, and on the armed forces of the Russian Federation. He is a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House and a Research Director with the Conflict Studies Research Centre.
“We always made it seem like magic. Things just showed up – you had what you need” says Rear Admiral John Polowczyk in this episode of our Indicatiions podcast. In a compelling discussion with Chief Economist Dana Peterson, the Rear Admiral, who has a long history of supply chain management at the top levels of military and government, discusses how and why the COVID pandemic disrupted the delivery of goods. This episode was recorded before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but still contains pertinent information for companies as they struggle with even further shocks to the global supply chain.
In this second part of our podcast series, produced in partnership with EY, you can listen to the conversation and learn:
-Why companies’ approach to a lean supply chain and “just in time” inventory was a critical factor in the disruption of the system
-What changes will need to be made to create more resilient supply chains, and why will it be so difficult to fix?
-What is the role of the Federal Government in this?
-Will outer space factor into the transportation of goods?
In this podcast British journalist and author Christina Lamb joins Sara Murray, Managing Director International to discuss what’s happening on the ground at the Polish-Ukraine border, how the war is unfolding and its consequences to families, especially women and children.
Together they look at what’s currently not being told, and steps companies can take to ensure employees and their families are safe, as well as views on how this war will end.
Lamb also discusses her award-winning book ‘Our Bodies, Their Battlefield: What War Does to Women’.
Journalists play a crucial role in exposing the tragedy of war. In a new podcast, Jerome Starkey, a broadcaster, author, and Defense Editor at The Sun, joins Sara Murray, Managing Director, International, from the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Starkey provides a first-hand description of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine, from the challenges civilians are observing, their spirit/morale, whether humanitarian aid is getting though, Russia’s ultimate game plan, and what it takes to be a combat journalist.
How will the war in Ukraine impact rising commodity prices and key material shortages? Will Ukraine be able to provide its own people with basic necessities such as food, shelter and heat without Western intervention? How can the world help? In this podcast Dmytro Los, Head of the Board of the Ukrainian Business and Trade Association and Sara Murray, Managing Director, International for The Conference Board, discuss both the dire situation facing the Ukrainian people – and the threat to global commerce.
What is the difference between battlefield and strategic nuclear weapons? Are we underestimating the risk of chemical weapon attacks in Ukraine? Can the war spill outside the Ukraine border? In this podcast Hamish de Bretton Gordon, one of the world’s leading experts on nuclear, biological and chemical warfare, and Sara Murray, Managing Director, International for The Conference Board, discuss Russia’s military doctrine, China’s role in this conflict as well as what kind of contingency plans companies should put in place given the situation to help their staff in Ukraine.
How much do we expect inflation to increase in Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine? How are we revising our estimates for growth? How high can oil and gas prices go? In this podcast Ilaria Maselli, Klaas de Vries and Hiba Itani from The Conference Board discuss the economic implications of the war in Ukraine for the European economic outlook.
What are companies doing to help their employees get out of Ukraine? What are their responses in way of transportation, accommodation, and financial support? In this podcast Anne Stevens, Council Director at The Conference Board for our Global CHRO, HR Executives, and Global Business Women Leaders Councils shares what CHROs from leading multinational organizations are doing to take care of employees affected by this crisis. The conversation is moderated by Sara Murray, Managing Director International at The Conference Board.
In part II of this podcast series, Samantha De Bendern, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House joins Sara Murry, Managing Director, International at The Conference Board to explore issues such as Russia’s potential retaliation on imposed sanctions and what this means for supply chains. The discussion also tackles the issues of cybersecurity and preparedness, as well as companies’ response to employees affected by the situation. There are opportunities to be taken especially with regards to building resilience.
What’s next with regards to the relationship between NATO and Russia? What is the impact of the China-Russia axis on European and US business leaders? What role do oil and gas play in this situation? In Part I of this special episode of Indications we are joined by Samantha De Bendern, one of Europe’s leading experts on the current Russian-Ukraine crisis. Together with Sara Murray, Managing Director, International of The Conference Board they discuss these, and other related questions, bringing insights on the evolving situation.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped in February following a decline in January.
President & CEO, Steve Odland and Senior Director of Economic Indicators, Lynn Franco, discuss the decline and consumer's easing expectations regarding the economy and job growth. They also reveal what has been the pillar of support for consumer confidence.
“The C-Suite really needs to put supply chain resiliency on their agenda. It can’t be #45, it’s got to be near the top”, says Jay Welsh, Partner at EY and a specialist in global supply chains. As deliveries become increasingly difficult at the borders, Welsh talks with Chief Economist Dana Peterson. In this informative discussion, they dissect the disruption of deliveries: what caused it, what it will take to fix it and how the C-Suite needs to react. In the first part of this podcast series, produced in partnership with EY, you’ll grasp new approaches to dealing with supply chain issues.
In this conversation you will learn:
What emerging technologies are helping companies with supply chain problems?
What can companies do to diversify their supply chains?
How can businesses balance the needs of customers while protecting profit margins?
How can companies use analytics for better forecasting?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in January after three months of improvement. Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss the key drivers of the decline as well as Omicron’s effect on consumers’ lives, and important factors to keep consumers optimistic going forward.
Ataman Ozyildirim speaks with Swapna Nair, Senior Economist from the Conference board of Canada and Erik Lundh, Principal Economist from The Conference Board of New York to discuss 5 new trends in global supply chains and how global and Canadian companies are viewing these trends, based on a recent survey on the future of global value chains.
The results of our C-Suite Outlook 2022 have just been released. Chief Economist, Dana Peterson and Senior Director of Economics, Ataman Ozyildirim, discuss some of the more surprising findings from the report.
Is climate change a major concern for CEO’s? How high did macro-economic factors rank? What else is on CEO’s minds that wasn’t reflected in the survey?
Listen now to part 2 of our C-Suite Outlook 2022 series.
For more insights, click below:
https://www.conference-board.org/publications/c-suite-outlook-2022
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved in December 2021, following an upward revision in November.
Please join and listen to this podcast as Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss key drivers of this increase and what consumers are saying about the new Omicron variant.
Brexit reignited the Scottish nationalist fire. In this podcast, Ilaria Maselli and Elizabeth Crofoot discuss scenarios for Scottish independence from the UK: what steps would be necessary and what it would mean for businesses. They explore 3 scenarios: 1) independence and EU membership, 2) the Divided United Kingdom with further devolution of powers to Edinburgh, and 3) Status quo skirmish.
You can also read our full report at: tcb.org/topics/brexit/scotlands-post-brexit-future
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
While communication is not the leading harbinger of success, many would-be innovators underuse it, hampering their progress. Our recent series of interviews with successful innovators reveals that strategic, skillful, and disciplined communication is front and center for them.
During this podcast, we’ll share communication techniques and skills that help leaders overcome common innovation challenges and exploit opportunities. The research is based on our interviews with 17 leaders—innovation executives, communications leaders, CEOs, and other C-suite executives—from 10 different companies based in the United States and Europe.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in November. The delta variant took the backseat while rising prices took the lead in consumer's concerns.
Please join and listen to this podcast as Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss other key drivers of this decline and what is expected going forward.
In this podcast Frank Heemskerk (European Round Table for Industry), and Ilaria Maselli and Klaas de Vries (The conference Board) discuss some of the key insights from the report “European Business Leaders Adjust Expectations Slightly Downward”. We start with the latest reading of the Measure of CEO Confidence™, and then discuss growth expectations for 2022 and risks that can affect the European economy in the short-term. A key message is that the current struggles of the economy come from the supply side: supply chains under stress, inadequate equipment and emerging labour shortages. The report can be found at this link: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/CEO-Confidence/ceo-confidence-november-2021-report
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined again in September, following decreases in both July and August. The Index now stands at 109.3 (1985=100), down from 115.2 in August. ThePresent Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 143.4 from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 86.6 from 92.8.
Listen to this podcast as Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss how the Delta variant appears to be impacting consumers – making them more cautious with their spending going forward.
Before the pandemic—and after a long period of global economic expansion—global labor markets were relatively tight. When the pandemic hit in early 2020, labor markets changed abruptly. GDP and the number of jobs (or hours worked) declined dramatically across the globe.
A year later, the economic and labor market outlook is much more optimistic, especially in mature economies. Some economies are already close to being fully reopened. But as economies start to reopen, labor shortages may reappear sooner than employers might expect. In this podcast, we will discuss the latest global labor market developments and what can be expected in the second half of 2021, 2022, and beyond.
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was relatively unchanged in July, following gains in each of the prior five months. The Index now stands at 129.1 (1985=100), up from 128.9 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 159.6 to 160.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—was virtually unchanged at 108.4, compared to 108.5 last month.
Please join and listen to this podcast as Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss consumers’ optimism for the short term and how that will impact the US economy as we head into autumn of 2022.
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved further in June, following gains in each of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from 120.0 (an upward revision) in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 148.7 to 157.7. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 107.0, up from 100.9 last month.
Join and listen to this podcast as Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss consumers’ new optimism for the short-term – and how that will impact the economy going forward.
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
In this podcast Frank Heemskerk (ERT), and Ilaria Maselli and Klaas de Vries (The Conference Board) discuss some of the insights from the report “Surging Confidence Among European Business Leaders Despite Strains on Supply Chains”. We start with the latest reading of the Measure of CEO Confidence™, and then discuss bottlenecks in sight, like strains on supply chains, shortages and trade tensions. We also look at the forecast for 2021 and 2022 and talk about why vaccination remains the key risk (or upside!) for the next six months.
Click here to check out ERT's newly released podcast series: https://ert.eu/documents/ert-launches-podcast-series-21st-century-industrialists/
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® held steady in May, following a gain in April. The Index now stands at 117.2 (1985=100), down marginally from 117.5 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased from 131.9 to 144.3. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 99.1 in May, down from 107.9 last month.
Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson as they discuss consumers’ waning optimism for the short-term.
Why did global consumer confidence reach record levels in Q1 2021? What does this mean for global growth, and what are the regional developments? More specifically, what have been trends in the US regarding health and wellness, spending on food, and investments? What can we expect in the near future? Join The Conference Board’s Chief Economist Dana Peterson and Senior Researcher Denise Dahlhoff as they discuss these and related questions.
Learn how the lightening in moods among consumers globally bodes well for spending throughout the remainder of the year as economies continue to emerge from the pandemic-induced economic downturn and work towards arresting the spread of the coronavirus. As consumption is a significant contributor to growth among many mature economies, the positive consumer attitudes and behaviors at the start of the year support The Conference Board’s upwardly revised expectation of 5.2 percent real GDP growth for the global economy in 2021.
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
Join us as we discuss the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on productivity in 2020, 2021 and beyond. See The Conference Board's latest multi-market projections and our new measure of productivity. Learn about new trends that may contribute to faster productivity growth ahead at the global total economy level. Discover which industries, including communications and health care, may be poised for a burst in productivity growth. Understand factors driving faster productivity growth over the long-run.
For additional info please visit: https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/
The just released Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® The Conference Board’s just released Consumer Confidence Index® rose sharply again in April, following a substantial gain in March. The Index now stands at 121.7 (1985=100), up from 109.0 in March.
Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson as they discuss consumers’ optimism, and what contributed to the highest index since February of 2020.
Our recent labor market research finds that wage gaps by race/ethnicity and gender remain large in the US and have actually increased over the last decade.
In this podcast, experts from The Conference board will discuss:
-How wage gaps differ among Black, Hispanic, Asian, and White workers and by gender.
-How under-representation of some groups in high paying occupations/industries can help us understand existing gaps.
-How companies can take a multi-pronged approach to address wage gaps internally, as well as support progress toward pay equity externally.
-How to identify barriers to talent mobility and/or advancement to senior leadership and higher paid roles.
-Why strong growth in the tech industry contributes to rising wage gaps for Black workers.
US employers added an astounding 916,000 jobs in March 2021. Employment has now doubled each month since the start of the year, marking a turning point in the economic recovery. There will likely be 4.5 million more jobs added to the economy this year, especially in in-person services, explains Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. He adds that job gains will likely hover around 800,000 per month in the near term, and may even reach 1 million.
Elizabeth Crofoot, CED’s Senior Economist, also discusses the potential job growth associated with the Biden Administration’s proposed infrastructure package. She notes that, if the infrastructure proposal were to become law, the economy would add about 15 million jobs over the next 8 to 10 years. Yet the plan itself may spur less than 3 million additional jobs on top of what would be generated without it.
The just released Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® surged in March to its highest reading in a year, after a modest increase in February. The Index now stands at 109.7 (1985=100), up from 90.4 in February. These numbers show the index has reached its highest level since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Chief Economist Dana Peterson as they discuss consumers’ optimism, and what might temper that outlook in the short term.
The just released Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved again in February, after increasing in January. The Index now stands at 91.3 (1985=100), up from 88.9 in January. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—climbed from 85.5 to 92.0. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell marginally, from 91.2 last month to 90.8 in February. The survey results did not fully capture the events surrounding the Texas power crisis nor the loosening of dining restrictions in NYC.
Join Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators and Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson for this Indications podcast as they look at the current numbers - and what they portend for the future of 2021.
Since 1999, The Conference Board CEO Challenge® survey has asked CEOs across the globe to identify the most critical issues they face and their strategies to meet them. Since 2017, the C-Suite Challenge has expanded the survey pool beyond CEOs to the entire C-suite.
This year’s survey, conducted following the US elections in November 2020, asked CEOs and C-suite executives for their views on the external stress points they face and the strategies they will focus on to mitigate risk and seize opportunity as part of the post-COVID-19 recovery. In addition, the survey asked respondents for their views on the long-term impacts that will emerge from the pandemic.
Join our economists as they discuss the implications of the survey findings on the outlook for the economic recovery in 2021 and the transformation of the economic and business landscape in the long term.
Despite a rebound from December’s job losses, employment gains in January were relatively small and likely overstated by seasonal factors. While there is much uncertainty about the next two to three months, the rollout of the vaccines will be the dominant force driving a strong employment recovery in the hardest hit industries, explains Gad Levanon, Vice President of Labor Markets at The Conference Board. He added that there will be a strong recovery in the second quarter and it will continue for the rest of the year. Elizabeth Crofoot, CED’s Senior Economist, also summarizes the ongoing debate around the appropriate size of the fiscal response. She noted that, in targeting full employment, it is important to find a balance between offsetting the risk of a slowing economy and concerns of inflationary pressures.
On the 24th of December 2020, the UK and the EU reached an agreement on how to manage their relationship from January 1, 2021 onward. In this podcast Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist Europe at The Conference Board and Andrew Tank, Executive Director, European Centers and Intn. HR Services
at The Conference Board, discuss the economic and business implications of the deal: what are the hurdles for the manufacturing and the service sector? What is the outlook for the British economy in 2021? And what will the UK look like in a decade from now? In the short-term, drivers of economic growth will surely change in the UK. Supply chains will reorganize and the capacity of the country to attract European talent will diminish. For the long-term, three scenarios are presented: Fall Apart, Resilient Britain and Muddle Through. For a deeper dive into the topic, you can also download the full “Brexit: What’s Next” publication on The Conference Board website.
After nearly a year of primarily working from home, a growing share of organizations expect remote work to become the new normal. But within the shift to remote work, no one story fits all.
We discuss differences in remote work rates across demographics, occupations, industries, and geographies that have become even more apparent during the pandemic. We also discuss the implications of remote work for worker productivity, how organizations hire, and for employees’ quality of life.
The just released Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved moderately in January 2021 after decreasing in December. While consumers appraisal of present-day conditions did weaken in January due to ongoing COVID concerns, their expectations for the economy and jobs advanced, suggesting that consumers foresee conditions improving soon. Join this podcast with Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson and Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators to understand the story behind the numbers and what our experts foresee for the early months of 2021.
Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about.
| Join labor market experts from The Conference Board as they break down the monthly US Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. They provide insights on the monthly employment and unemployment numbers and identify key trends in the US job market that business leaders should know about. |
In this podcast Ilaria Maselli and Klaas de Vries discuss some of the insights from Conference Board research on how the European economy is doing. We start with the impact of the November lockdowns on the economy and then discuss two different scenarios for 2021. A key message is that the magnitude of the 2021 recovery can affect the entire decade. We also look at how different sectors of the economy are being affected by the COVID-19 crisis, and share results from the freshly released Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™, for Europe by the European Round Table for Industry.
We react to the October jobs report and then discuss the Top 10 Pandemic Job Market Trends. The U.S. economy and labor market are experiencing a very unusual recession. As the fallout from COVID-19 continues, we identify the biggest trends involving the U.S. job market that business leaders should be aware of.
Join our panel of economists from The Conference Board—Gad Levanon, Vice President Labor Markets, Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist, and Frank Steemers, Economist—as they explain the following critical COVID-induced trends:
- After a summer hiring sprint, job gains are slowing
- It is still difficult to find qualified workers
- People are leaving the labor force
- Goods and services have switched places
- A k-shaped recovery is playing out in labor metrics
- Salary cuts and wage bifurcation are likely to continue
- Remote work is now en vogue
- City centers are in deep recession
- The coasts shouldered the brunt of job cuts
- Large metro areas and vacation destinations were hardest hit
Related reading:
Gad Levanon, “The Top 10 Pandemic Job Market Trends,” Forbes, October 19, 2020. https://www.forbes.com/sites/gadlevanon/2020/10/19/the-top-10-pandemic-job-market-trends/#460a921b610b
This podcast was recorded on November 5, before most news organizations called the US presidential election for Joe Biden, and before Biden himself claimed victory. Nick Redman, Director of Analysis, Oxford Analytica, Dana Petersen, Chief Economist, The Conference Board and David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan discuss the choices facing the next administration. The panel did not start from the certainty that Biden would become president.
The just released Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined slightly in October, after increasing sharply in September. While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, expectations declined due to the short-term job outlook. Join this podcast with Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson and Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators to understand the story behind the numbers and what our experts foresee for the final months of 2020.
We react to the September jobs report and then discuss the Post-COVID US Labor Market and what we can we expect in 2025. The COVID-19 pandemic and reduced consumption due to social distancing is driving the deepest economic recession since the Great Depression. As consumers remain reluctant to spend and as layoff announcements pick up, US employment will be slow to recover to pre-pandemic levels in the near term.
But eventually, a vaccine will be found, and the fear of the virus will dissipate. How different will the US economy and labor market look five years from now?
Join our panel of economists from The Conference Board—Gad Levanon, Vice President Labor Markets, Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist, and Frank Steemers, Economist—as they address the following critical questions:
- What are the main COVID-19 related economic trends that will impact the US economy and labor market in the long-term?
- What will be the most disrupted US industries and occupations by 2025?
- How will the growing shift to online everything—from the rise in remote work to growing online purchasing and delivery—affect the demand for labor?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased 15.5 points for September.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, a special mid-year edition of the annual C-Suite Challenge Survey focused on the long-term impacts business executives expect as the likely legacy of the pandemic. In this podcast, we discuss how executives in Europe are more engaged in rethinking the role of business in society, the future of globalization, and the higher interest in the new normal of remote work.
An update on the state of labor markets in the US and Europe. How many people have lost their job and what is the outlook? In which occupations and industries have job losses been the largest? What are the main differences between labor markets in the US and Europe? A follow up on our previous podcast on international labor markets.
We react to the August jobs report and then discuss compensation trends and why the wage crunch might be delayed. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, organizations have taken several workforce cost reduction measures, including cutting wages and salaries. In addition, with revenues under pressure and many people out of work, employers are entering a new era where wage growth may hit a historical low. So, how should business and HR leaders respond? Join our panel of The Conference Board economists, Gad Levanon, Vice President Labor Markets, Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist Labor Markets, and Frank Steemers, Economist, to learn more. After this podcast, viewers will be able to answer the following critical questions: What are the main insights from the August jobs report? How has COVID-19 affected wages and salaries? Why the wage crunch may be delayed and not be visible yet in 2020? What will happen to salary increase budgets? How will a loose labor market over the next few years affect wage growth? What will be the impact of the rise in minimum wages on compensation?
https://conference-board.org/podcasts
Consumer Confidence declined for the second consecutive month and now stands at 84.8 down from 91.7 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, while pessimism about the short-term outlook continued to grow. Concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
We react to the July jobs report and then address the monumental shift to remote work because of COVID-19. Pandemic-related restrictions mean a large share of American workers are working entirely from home. Even after full vaccination, with the economy at full capacity, teleworking rates are likely to remain well above pre-pandemic rates, with major workforce and real estate implications. Many organizations struggle with this significant change as workers continue to adapt to this new way of working by themselves (remotely) or with their teams.
Further, increased telework means that much of consumer spending will shift from city centers to the places where people live. As consumption patterns change, businesses with a large footprint in city centers will be hardest hit.
Our panel of Conference Board experts, Gad Levanon, Vice President Labor Markets, Amy Abel, Vice President Human Capital, and Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist Labor Markets, discuss the following topics:
- In which metro areas and occupations will telework likely become a norm?
- How has the dramatic change in how employees work affected stress levels and new ways of collaborating?
- How can leaders support their teams in a virtual environment and maintain a focus on productivity?
- How will a potential new way to work impact our consumption patterns and real estate footprint, especially the demand for retail and office space in city centers?
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council rose slightly in Q3. The measure saw a one-point uptick, up from 44 in Q2 to 45 in Q3. (A reading below 50 points reflects more negative than positive responses.) Without substantial containment of COVID-19, widespread uncertainty will continue being the dominant cloud hanging over America’s CEO community.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence
Margaret Murphy, Digital Media Programme Manager at the Conference Board, interviews our resident Senior Economist for Europe, Ilaria Maselli about the consumer confidence results in Europe for Q2. In 2020 Q2, European consumer confidence saw its largest quarterly decline in the history of the series, driven by near record pessimism about job prospects over the next 12 months. On the whole, 74 percent of European consumers indicated that job prospects were “not so good” or “bad” in 2020 Q2 compared to 56 percent in Q1. Three factors will determine a possible recovery in confidence: the evolution of the pandemic, the end of the furlough schemes that have been supporting jobs and incomes until now, and trust in government initiatives.
Large declines were experienced in Michigan, Florida, Texas and California, a result of the resurgence of COVID-19. Looking ahead, consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects. Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending.
We react to the June jobs report and then address the impact of COVID-19 on US workers and households. For many, their economic situation has done a complete 180 since the emergence of the virus. In a previously tight labor market, unemployment rates were at record lows, wages were accelerating, and job satisfaction was rising.
The improvement in labor market conditions, especially for blacks, Hispanics, and workers with lower earnings and education, had led to a reduction in poverty rates and wage inequality. But the COVID-19 crisis is hitting vulnerable populations especially hard and will likely lead to a reversal of these trends.
Our panel of Conference Board experts, Gad Levanon, Head of the Labor Markets Institute, Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist, and Frank Steemers, Economist discuss the following topics:
• The industries and occupations that have been most impacted by COVID-19
• The characteristics of US workers that have suffered the most job losses, by age, gender, race, average wage, and educational attainment
• Expected trends in unemployment rates, wages, and labor force participation rates due to COVID-19
• The impact on income and wage inequality and poverty rates
On The Sherman Show Podcast, The Conference Board's Bart van Ark and Erik Lundh discuss various aspects of how the US economy is faring amid COVID-19, including Consumer Confidence and their US economic forecast.
For more of The Sherman Show podcasts, please visit: https://doubleline.com/podcasts/
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index sees its biggest rise this month since 2011, yet still remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels. The index reveals consumers are less pessimistic about the short-term outlook, but fear an uneven and uncertain economic recovery amid virus concerns. Join Chief Economist Bart van Ark, and Senior Director of Economic Indicators, Lynn Franco, as they discuss the monthly numbers.
A large share of the world population is in lockdown right now. The speed and depth of the downturn we are experiencing are unprecedented and, inevitably, this will have an impact on labor markets. What do we know about unemployment so far in US and Europe? What industries or workers groups are more affected? How are companies dealing with shortages in some sectors? And, will we see productivity growth increasing as unexpected but positive impact of this crisis? These are the questions we deal with in this podcast.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index weakened considerably in April, following a steep decline in March. Join Chief Economist Bart van Ark, and Senior Director of Economic Indicators, Lynn Franco, as they discuss the monthly numbers and a surprising improvement in consumers’ short-term outlook.
President and CEO of The Conference Board, Steve Odland, discusses how COVID-19 is impacting CEOs' views about the state and trajectory of the US economy and business environment.
Amid the fallout from COVID-19, confidence among US CEOs has declined sharply. Join this podcast with Conference Board CEO Steve Odland and Chief Economist Bart van Ark to learn what the newest numbers show, and whether there is any optimism for the future.
In this episode of indications, Ilaria Maselli (Senior Economist, Europe, The Conference Board) and Bart van Ark (Chief Economist, The Conference Board) discuss the outlook for the European economy in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. They discuss how the current crisis compares to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and debate on what type of shock this is and what are the conditions that will contribute to a rebound.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in March 2020, led by a nearly 20-point decline in the Expectations Index—among the largest one-month drops ever.
Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators, explains how the rapid intensification of COVID-19 has fueled widespread uncertainty on the economy and jobs, and why March’s numbers are in line with a severe contraction—rather a temporary shock—and further declines are sure to follow.
The Conference Board COVID-19 forecasts and analysis
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This is the last episode in a 3 part series based on The Conference Board report “US Labor Shortages: Challenges and Solutions.” In this third episode, Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, and Frank Steemers, Associate Economist, discuss company solutions to the labor shortage problem.
Based on our Labor Shortages Solutions Survey, we explore solutions to recruitment and retention challenges used by organizations most affected by labor shortages. Many of these organizations are those primarily hiring blue-collar and manual services workers. While raising wages and salaries is the top remedy, employers are taking further steps to attract and retain talent, including: making tactical improvements to their recruiting efforts, making jobs more attractive, improving training and talent pipelines, and widening the talent pool by expanding target recruitment groups and relaxing hiring criteria.
Automation can also play a role in alleviating labor shortages, but U.S. productivity growth—a good proxy for automation’s impact—has significantly slowed down this decade. Despite progress in eliminating easily automated tasks, especially in office and administrative support occupations, additional automation is needed to offset growing labor shortages.
This is the second episode in a 3 part series based on The Conference Board report “US Labor Shortages: Challenges and Solutions.” In this second episode, Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute, and Frank Steemers, Associate Economist, discuss the impact of higher wages on the labor market and corporate profits.
Based on our Labor Shortages Solutions Survey, raising wages was the most used solution for both recruitment and retention challenges. Given acute labor shortages for blue-collar and manual services occupations, wage acceleration is most prevalent for these workers.
At the same time, The Conference Board Salary Increase Budgets Survey for 2020 shows that a combination of slow salary raises for existing workers and rapid wage acceleration for new hires is contributing to historic levels of pay compression —when the wage premium for experience shrinks. Such pay compression is leading to higher labor turnover of more experienced workers who can easily find new jobs in this tight labor market.
The acceleration in wages and quit rates, along with slow labor productivity growth, are reducing US corporate profits. With the US economy projected to slow and labor shortages escalating, the pressure on corporate profits is likely to increase in the coming years.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index ticked up slightly in February, with further strengthening of expectations offsetting a pullback in consumers’ assessment of present conditions. The bottom line: American consumers remain historically confident—with their spending likely to drive continued economic growth through the first half of 2020. Could the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak—which escalated globally after our February survey closed—grow into the “black swan” that finally disrupts years of positive trends?
Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators, explores the epidemic’s latest signals and downside risks—and explains how long the good times for consumers can continue as we approach November in an election year.
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This is the first episode in a 3 part series based on The Conference Board report “US Labor Shortages: Challenges and Solutions.” In this first episode, Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute, and Frank Steemers, Associate Economist, discuss why we’re seeing labor shortages economy wide and the implications for companies and workers.
Labor shortages are having a strong impact on the US economy. A perfect storm of labor market conditions—including a stagnant working-age population due to massive retirements and disappointing labor force participation of key demographics—have led to a shrinking number of available workers without a college degree. As a result, labor shortages in blue-collar and manual services occupations are now more real than ever. Companies hiring these workers are facing the most severe challenges in recruiting and retaining their workforce.
On the flip side, tight labor markets are a boon for workers. US blue-collar and manual services workers have experienced improved job satisfaction, as wages rise and wage inequality shrinks.
The threat of trade wars has receded, but the coronavirus outbreak has added a new level of uncertainty to the global economic outlook. Will its effects be temporary, short term or beyond? Will its impact on China, the world’s second largest economy, reverberate across the globe?
“Generally, the history of prior shocks has led to significant short-term effects, but no long-lasting impact,” says Bart van Ark, The Conference Board’s Global Chief Economist. Will this outbreak be different? In this timely podcast, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics & Global Research Chair, chats with a panel of experts at The Conference Board, including: Bart van Ark, Chief Economist; Yuan Gao, Senior Economist at the China Center; Jun Tan, Associate Economist; Lynn Franco, Senior Director, Economic Indicators.
The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus outbreak an international public health emergency, acknowledging that the virus now represents a risk beyond China. How can organizations prepare for and manage the potential impact of this fast-moving, deadly outbreak? What are the short and long-term economic implications? How can companies respond to a major health outbreak from various functional perspectives?
In this timely podcast, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics & Global Research Chair, The Conference Board, sits down with leading experts to discuss these and other critical issues. Participants include: Rebecca Ray, Executive Vice President, Human Capital, The Conference Board; Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, The Conference Board, and an expert on the China economy; Denise Dahlhoff, Senior Researcher, Consumer Research, The Conference Board; and Craig Carroll, Executive Director, OCR Network, and a global expert on corporate reputation.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) strengthened further in January 2020. At 131.6 (1985=100), the top-line index is back within sight of all-time highs approached last summer.
With the trade conflicts and minor recession scares of 2019 largely behind us, expect the American consumer to be the unchallenged driver of economic growth through the first half of 2020—a full decade into the current expansion.
Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators, breaks down the forces behind this remarkable resilience. Then, she dives into the CCI's special relevance in presidential election years—including two distinct methods by which our data has predicted the reelection chances of incumbents. (Spoiler alert: The two approaches currently disagree on President Trump's chances.)
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The generational confidence gap by Dion Rabouin, Axios
The Atlantic: How Capitalism Broke Young Adulthood by Derek Thompson, The Atlantic
Q4 2019 consumer confidence in Europe weakened to 86, down from 88 in Q3 2019, suggesting that consumer pessimism in the region has increased. Consumer confidence in the Euro Area was unchanged at 89, slightly above the European average, however and increasing share of households in Germany, Italy and Spain believes that their country is in recession.
In this podcast, Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist for Europe at The Conference Board, compares these fears to the results of C-Suite Challenge 2020 and The Conference Board outlook for the economy for 2020.
Co-authors Ilaria Maselli, Senior Economist for Europe at the Conference Board and Chuck Mitchell Executive Director, Knowledge Content & Quality at the Conference Board, discuss the findings of our latest C-Suite Challenge report. This report is one of a suite of knowledge offerings based on responses to the C-Suite Challenge™ 2020 survey, which asked CEOs and C-suite executives for their views on the external and internal stress points they face. For a look at our full report go to https://www.conference-board.org/publications/publicationdetail.cfm?publicationid=8882
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, sits down with Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board, to discuss how an uncertain geopolitical climate is likely to affect the global economy in 2020.
George and Bart unpack a range of short-, medium-, and long-term phenomena: How has the economic dysfunction and social instability from the 2008 financial crisis influenced today’s economy? How large is the exposure for importing nations versus exporting nations? How has the rise of technology contributed to social and economic inequality?
In this podcast, Ilaria Maselli (Senior Economist) deep dives into the quarter 3 results for Europe of The Global Consumer Confidence Index by The Conference Board and Nielsen. They also discuss specific countries of interest, as well as preferences and concerns of European consumers. The new data show that confidence increased in Europe (at 88) and remained unchanged in the Euro Area subset (at 89). These are historically high levels of consumer confidence, in Europe as well as globally. We discuss the gap between (high) consumer confidence and (low) business confidence, and what this means for economic growth. We also dive into consumers' concerns in different countries and remark the increasing concern over global warming.
The discrepancy between how CEOs view economic prospects (gradually worse) and how consumers continue to feel economically (positive overall) has never been bigger. Which markets have gained and lost confidence the most since the previous quarter? What consumer concern has grown the most? What can we expect for the road ahead? Find out in this conversation featuring The Conference Board’s Chief Economist, Bart van Ark, and Denise Dahlhoff, Senior Researcher focused on consumer topics.
In this podcast, Ilaria Maselli (Senior Economist) and Derek Servais (senior digital media and IT specialist) deep dive into the quarter 2 results for Europe of The Global Consumer Confidence Index by The Conference Board and Nielsen. The new data show that confidence increased in Europe and in the Euro Area. Compared to quarter 1, Europeans are more likely to spend on new clothes, vacations, out of home entertainment and medical. But there are also consumers using the spare cash to nourish their savings or retirement funds, not surprising given the demographic profile of the continent. Europeans are less interested in spending on home improvements and decoration and tech products.
In this podcast, The Conference Board’s Chief Economist Bart van Ark and Senior Researcher Denise Dahlhoff discuss select results from the Q2 2019 run of The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey, which is a collaboration with Nielsen. Findings include developments regarding consumer confidence in countries such as the U.S., China, Brazil, Mexico, UK, France and Germany, consumers’ spending on certain categories, and their top concerns. For more information on the research, visit The Conference Board's Website
Latin America is a vast, diverse region in flux, with economic prospects varying immensely from country to country—and month to month. In this episode, Chief Economist Bart van Ark and an expert panel tour the latest developments from Cape Horn to the US border. Learn how political pressures, natural resource dependence, exports and trade policy, and security and safety concerns are playing out in individual markets—and why there’s reason for optimism across the region as a whole.
Indications 2.10 Reading List
- Window on Latin America (webcast)
The Conference Board, in conjunction with Nielsen, has formally launched our latest economic indicator. The Global Consumer Confidence Index takes the temperature of consumers in 64 markets around the world—including how, what, and where they intend to spend in the months ahead.
In this episode, Chief Economist Bart van Ark and Senior Researcher Denise Dahlhoff discuss the background of the index, an overview of key findings for Q1 2019, and how business leaders can best leverage these quarterly numbers going forward.
According to the IMF, total debt worldwide—including government, consumer, financial, and non-financial sources—now amounts to $185 trillion, or some 2.25 times the size of global GDP. A generation ago, the ratio stood at just 1:1. But despite this rapid rise in leverage, the traditional dangers of government debt in particular—soaring inflation and interest rates—have yet to materialize.
Should the evidence of recent decades force experts to reconsider their basic monetary and fiscal assumptions? Have policymakers and the private sector alike reached a new equilibrium of debt tolerance? Or are the established laws of economic gravity still intact—and ignored at our peril?
Chief Economist Bart van Ark surveys the evidence with the help of an expert panel.
Indications 2.8 Resources
- Window On the World’s Debt (full webcast on-demand)
- Window On Latin America (free registration for next webcast on 4/24)
The Conference Board started the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in 1967. In February 2009, at the nadir of the financial crisis, the Index reached an all-time low of 25.3 points (1985=100). Over the next decade, an arduous recovery littered with false starts and temporary reversals slowly took root to produce a historic expansion. By October 2018, consumer confidence had climbed to 137.9—just points away from the all-time high reached in 2000.
Since then, however, things have become murkier and more volatile. After a 7.3-point drop in March 2019, consumer confidence now stands at 124.1. Consumers’ appraisal of the present situation has taken an especially big hit. Is this an expected moderation or an early warning of impeding recession?
Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators and surveys, examines the evidence.
Indications 2.7 Reading List
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®
Around the world, business leaders are growing increasingly nervous about 2019 growth prospects. Are consumers following suit? Ultimately, the answer will come down to job availability, income growth incomes, and the purchasing power of their hard-earned money.
Chief Economist Bart van Ark leads a team of experts on a world tour of consumer confidence—and comes away largely reassured.
Indications 2.6
- Window on the Global Consumer (webcast)
- Global Consumer Confidence Index (preview)
With the US midterms over and 2019 approaching, we explore what divided government in Washington portends for global business and a still-booming American economy. What overall message—if any—did voters, workers, and consumers send by delivering a Democratic "blue wave" in the House and many local races, while strengthening Republicans' tenuous hold on the Senate?
Will President Trump be forced to recalibrate his high-stakes trade policies? Could a bipartisan infrastructure deal really be on track for 2019? And what are the real risks—and unseen opportunity costs—of the intense partisan tribalism seen in the run-up to the election, and hardly abated since?
Senior Economist Brian Schaitkin reviews the questions answered November 6—and the new ones raised—with help from our expert panel.
Indications 2.3 reading list
- Window on the US Midterm Elections (webcast)
Oil broke $70 a barrel for the first time in four years in January and hasn't receded since. Most experts predict it'll remain between $70 and $85 in the near term. But any sense of stability or consensus is deceiving. A witches' brew of volatile, complicated, and often countervailing global forces has been the real story of oil prices in 2018—and likely the only safe bet for 2019 as well.
Ataman Ozyildirim, Director and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board, breaks down the factors at play with the help of an expert panel. Will a "long, soft fall" of Chinese growth temper global demand? Can US shale overcome refining and distribution bottlenecks to reach more ultimate consumers—at lower prices? And how are oil watchers gaming out the extraordinary constellation of questions swirling around Iran, Venezuela, and now Saudi Arabia?
Indications 2.2 reading list
- Window on Oil Prices (webcast)
- Bethany McLean: "The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground" (NYT)
- Sustainability Practices: 2018 Edition
- Trade and Global Value Chains (2018)
- Energy and Global Growth (2015)
- The Long, Soft Fall of Chinese Growth (2014)
Welcome to Season 2 of Indications. In this premiere episode, Bart van Ark, Chief Economist of The Conference Board, breaks down the mysteries of productivity in the 2010s: Above all, why has productivity growth slowed to a crawl—down to 1.4% in 2015 and 2016—in the face of accelerating advances in mobile, automation, big data, and the cloud?
With the help of experts from the OECD and the McKinsey Global Institute, Bart dives into the latest data—and past technological transformations—to uncover a surprising answer: While economists and policymakers keep racking their brains to crack the past decade's "productivity paradox", a return to an era of faster productivity growth may already be happening, right before our eyes.
At a time of rising global competition, aging work forces, and stagnant productivity, everyone agrees on the key to staying ahead: Innovation. Each year, more CEOs sell tech-driven efficiencies to their shareholders, more marketers pitch their products as revolutionary to consumers, and more journalists and consultants produce lists of the world's most innovative companies.
The problem? There's no accepted standard for measuring—or even defining—innovation, and "I know it when I see it" no longer cuts it as substitute. On this episode of Indications, economists Ataman Ozyildirim and Janet Hao introduce Future of Innovation, a year-long project they've embarked on with the input of top executives and practitioners. The goal is a flexible framework of signposts that will help companies across industries define innovation for themselves and accurately track their progress over time and against the competition.
Reading List:
- The Conference Board Future of Innovation (project portal)
- Signposts of Innovation: Toward Better Innovation Metrics for Business—A Primer (member report)
- The Conference Board Innovation Leadership Council
- "The Most Innovative Companies of 2017" (Fast Company)
- "The World's Most Innovative Companies" (Forbes)
MEMBERS: Want the complete story on innovation and other critical business topics? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.
American consumers are feeling as upbeat about the state of the economy and their own job prospects as they have at any time since the Great Recession. Will this increased confidence translate into freer spending habits over the next year? Further afield, how are those habits being transformed by the aging of the U.S. population?
On this episode of Indications, Gad Levanon, Chief Economist for North America and Lynn Franco, Director of Indicators and Surveys, discuss the short- and long-term factors driving purchasing behavior.
They break down the post-election bounce in our Consumer Confidence Index, then turn to the question posed by our latest demographic research: What industries other than health care will be boosted by a growing 65+ population? Where will new retirement destinations take root? And how do economics account for changing demographics and differences in generational tastes when forecasting future demand for iPhones?
Reading List:
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (released last Tuesday each month)
- The Impact of Demographic Trends on Consumer Spending by Gad Levanon, Brian Anderson, Ben Cheng, and Frank Steemers (member report)
- "Locating the Next Myrtle Beach: Retirement Destinations and Workforce Planning" by Gad Levanon (blog)
On this episode, two experts from The Conference Board attack one of the central paradoxes of today’s global economy: Why has accelerating digital innovation yet to put economic growth in high gear? Chief Economist Bart van Ark looks to history; since the original Industrial Revolution, all new technologies have taken decades to be fully harnessed by businesses. Do mobile, always-on broadband, and the cloud simply need more time to pay off? Doug Chia, Executive Director of the Governance Center, presents a more troubling possibility: that American business leaders in the 21st century face a set of short-term incentives that is dragging out and actively impeding the usual deployment timeline.
Indeed, CEOs may see the tantalizing promise of new technologies—and why investing heavily now in areas like artificial intelligence, big data, and green tech could bolster their organizations for decades to come. But they also face a host of more immediate contenders for their attention, including quarterly earnings targets, activist hedge funds, and high-frequency trading—all with the potential to drive them off-course in managing long-term but ultimately winning investments. Are structural factors embedded in American capitalism undermining the innovation necessary for its survival?
Reading List
- Navigating the New Digital Economy: Driving Digital Growth and Productivity from Installation to Deployment (Member Report)
- Is Short-Term Behavior Jeopardizing the Future Prosperity of Business (Member Report)
- “Corporate Short-Termism is a Frustratingly Slippery Idea” (The Economist, February 16, 2017)
- Kraft Heinz Withdraws $143 Billion Offer to Merge With Unilever (New York Times, February 19, 2017)
MEMBERS: Want the complete story from The Conference Board Sustainability Center? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.
Aside from the day-to-day controversies, what have business leaders, policymakers, and thought leaders around the world been watching out for in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency? In this special event recorded for member companies of The Conference Board shortly after Inauguration Day, we offer an insider’s view of how decisions being today made in Washington will affect global planning, prosperity, and politics.
Chief Economist Bart Van Ark leads a panel of experts with perspectives from Washington, the rest of the U.S., China, and Europe in a wide-ranging discussion that touches on the implications for global growth, investment, employment, and trade. They offer a sober analysis of President Trump’s agenda for business and the economy, and review potential policy responses in the rest of the world.
Election results around the world in 2016 showed that the expansion of global trade in recent decades—till recently accepted as an unalloyed good—has also sparked a shocking growth in economic discontent. As Donald Trump begins his term, businesses are grappling with the potential changes to U.S. trade policy and potential disruptions to their supply chains.
Senior European Economist Ilaria Maselli, China Center Associate Director Ethan Cramer-Flood, and U.S. Senior Economist Brian Schaitkin examine how globalization has left some workers feeling neglected and whether a reversal of these trends would help them. Then they dive into the personalities and policies of the new administration and how businesses and governments in Europe and China may react.
Indications 5 Reading List
- The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017Podcast listeners have exclusive access to regional reports: U.S. | Europe | Asia
- Webcast with Richard Baldwin, author of The Great Convergence(Peterson Institute)
- Europe 2.0: Four Scenarios for Post-Brexit Europe by Ilaria Maselli and Wim Overmeer (Member report)
- China Center Quick Note: The US election-an unexpected de-stabilizer by Ethan Cramer-Flood (Member report)
MEMBERS: Want the complete story from our Global Outlook and beyond? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.
By any measure, 2016 will be remembered as a turning point for global sustainability. But a turn in what direction? The answer seemed clear in April, when the Paris Climate Conference ended with an agreement that, for the first time, committed all the world's industrial powers to substantial carbon limitations. Alongside this landmark, the year saw a rising critical mass of companies in all sectors awakening to the business case—that a commitment to sustainability can confer serious competitive advantages, not just extra costs or hurdles.
By the end of 2016, however, the future of this momentum seemed very much in doubt. Donald Trump's election in the U.S.—and the rise of populist politics worldwide—has brought skepticism of regulation and climate science back into the center of power. How are sustainability experts picturing this change for 2017 and beyond? Is a major backlash in the cards? Or have commercial and societal incentives already shifted irrevocably towards sustainable practices and growth?
Senior Economist Brian Schaitkin hosts a discussion touching on energy policy, renewable investment, the role of cities, and more with Thomas Singer, Principal Researcher in Corporate Leadership, and Wim Overmeer, Senior Fellow, Energy and Scenario Planning.
Indications 4 Reading List
- "4 Reasons to Be Excited About Sustainability in 2017" by Thomas Singer (GreenBiz)
- Transforming Electric Power Generation for a Low-Carbon Environment by Wim Overmeer. (The Conference Board member report)
MEMBERS: Want the complete story from The Conference Board Sustainability Center? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.
In this special episode, we bring you the view from Europe. Recorded for our members on December 14 in Brussels and New York, Economists Ilaria Maselli, Ataman Ozyildirim, and Klaas de Vries examine the economic outlook for the eurozone, then turn to three seismic events and issues that fundamentally shifted economic expectations and the business environment in 2016. Brexit was a huge disruptor, but not the only one.
In the New Year, Indications will return on a biweekly production schedule. Subscribe in iTunes or your podcatcher of choice, to get our latest analysis on the Trump transition, immigration and labor markets, energy and sustainability, and more.
In the end, the wall that mattered most in the U.S. election wasn't the one Donald Trump promised to build on the Mexican border, but the one he demolished around the Great Lakes. For a generation, a Blue Wall of working-class voters gave Democrats an edge in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and competitive in Ohio and Iowa. This year, demographics and the long-term decline of manufacturing finally caught up to presidential politics.
In a discussion spanning across trade, automation, training, and the pride of work, economists Ken Goldstein, Brian Schaitkin, and Diane Lim zero in on the areas where Trump dramatically over-performed pre-election polls. What does his success in these regions reveal about longer-term changes in jobs and markets? How does it fit in with the national picture? More importantly, is there anything Trump's administration—and the private sector—can do to really address the anxieties and dislocation that fueled his victory?
Like much of the world steeped in data, markets, and forecasting, The Conference Board is still unpacking the lessons and effects of Donald Trump's remarkable upset victory in the U.S. Presidential election. More importantly, our global team of economists and experts is turning to the road ahead, just as we did after this year's shock Brexit result, which—as President-Elect Trump predicted—so presaged the events of last week.
In this special episode of Indications, we bring you a conversation recorded for our members the morning of November 10, some 36 hours after election night. It touches on trade, taxes, the federal budget, and global implications, with reaction on the ground from New York, D.C., Brussels, Beijing, and beyond. We'll be back for Indications 3 later this week with more analysis of where Trump won his vote and what that tells us about the American and global economy.
With unemployment remaining low, and wages finally on the upswing, 2016 has been a good year for American consumers. Why then has U.S. growth been relatively weak? In a word, investment. Over the past two years, businesses have been reluctant to put funds into new equipment and structures that could enhance productivity. Economists Gad Levanon and Brian Schaitkin discuss whether firms' reticence to invest is based on election-related anxiety or reflects a deeper pessimism about future business conditions. They are then joined by human capital researcher Sherlin Nair to examine a form of investment not captured in government statistics—executive coaching. Does increasing the funds and devoted to leadership development bolster, parallel, or distract from more tangible investments?
Indications 2 reading list:
- Global Economic Outlook 2016: What Lies Ahead for Corporate Profits in Mature Economies? (The Conference Board)
- Global Executive Coaching Survey 2016: Developing Leaders and Leadership Capabilities at All Levels (The Conference Board)
- Gad Levanon: "Why the decline in earnings isn't that bad" (CNBC)
Want the complete story on executive coaching or the global earnings outlook? Working for a member of The Conference Board opens up our exclusive portfolio of research, events, and webcasts. Click here to find out if your company's a member.
“Unprecedented” may be the most overused headline of this election season, but you can add one more example to the list: Never before has The Conference Board heard so much concern and trepidation from our member companies across the world ahead of a US Presidential election. In this special episode of Indications, we present Window on America—a webcast for our membership recorded October 12. We’ll be back later this week with the second official episode.
On the heels of the debates, our panel of economists unpacks the economic arguments used by the Trump and Clinton campaigns. Is the post-2008 recovery historically pathetic, the basis for renewed prosperity, or perhaps both? Why do American workers remain so pessimistic despite an accelerating seller’s market in jobs? And is the age of record corporate profits and expanding income inequality over? Plus, the latest readings from our Consumer Confidence Index.