The Rate Guy: Recent Episodes
JP Conklin
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin?
We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nicest way possible, "Markets are underestimating the depth and duration of this trade reset.”
If you want to see the graphs referenced, you can see this week's newsletter here.
And you can easily subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed.
On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it’s probably not about deficits or de-dollarization.
From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP’s career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn’t the same as betting against the U.S.
To check out the graphs referenced - check out the Pensford Newsletter
This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.
This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability.
We unpack:
- The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior
- Why sentiment may be flashing recession signals
- What’s driving economic uncertainty—and how long it could last
Also, somehow this marks 5 years of podcasting unfiltered, occasionally accurate, and questionably useful economic insights. Thanks for listening (and surviving) with us!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think.
Here is the SOS Recession Indicator that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig!
What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it’s contained enough for the Fed to shift focus.
Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it’s just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we’ll be watching closely.
Plus:
- The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast just fell off a cliff—from 4% growth to -1.5%. The culprit? Tariffs.
- Job market warning signs: layoffs, spending freezes, and consumer pullback.
- Treasury yields react post-Eagles Super Bowl win—are we headed back below 4%?
It’s all in this week’s episode.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that!
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it’s a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels!
Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury.
What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. Go Birds!
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week’s inflation data and what it could mean moving forward.
We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we’re holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers close in our thoughts and prayers during this horrific time.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss.
Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season.
Happy New Year!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas.
JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.
On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark.
For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Match link that JP discussed. Here you go!
On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family’s driving mishaps and the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they pressing the brakes too hard—or not enough? Tune in to hear what’s ahead for rates.
This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields
Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump’s biggest obstacle.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State’s repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon.
We're baaaaack! On this week’s episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can’t take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down.
Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what’s the Fed's next move?
Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed.
To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November.
FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what’s next.
Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we’re keeping it short and sweet. We’re prepping for Wednesday’s rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won’t go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We’ll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting.
Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss! Topics of Discussion
Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.
This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:
- Fixed and Floating Rate Forecasts
- Rate Cuts Faster than Expected
- Whether Rate Cuts are too Late
- Labor Market Weakness
- Risk of Recurring Inflation
- Hedging Against Falling Rates
In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed.
Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how that ties into the Fed’s decision-making.
We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunker’s analysis on how much the labor market has already cooled (link), and ask the key question: will cutting rates fast reaccelerate inflation?
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen.
Link to the CNBC article about fake jobs.
Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be skewing perceptions and why easing off the brakes might be just what the economy needs right now.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending.
Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out on consumer debt that we discuss. For graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford Newsletter.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!
In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There’s a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts this year and the factors that could influence them. We'll explore the chaos that erupted after the latest jobs report, the implications of the Sahm Rule being triggered, and the importance of the Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply report. Tune in to find out why these issues deserve your attention.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility.
The good article refereced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting now.
This was a graph heavy newsletter and the link will be posted here after it publishes Monday morning at 8am.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year.
As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year.
In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong.
If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio (linked article referenced) and we cap it off with an AI recording of the rap battle below!
Hedge Advisor Rap Battle
Given Kendrick Lamar and Drake’s rap battle, I thought it would be interesting to see how Claude would have us battle with the other hedge advisors out there.
Pensford
Yo, it’s Pensford in the ring, call me the rate sage,
Missed a prediction or two? Yeah, but I turn the page.
Two years back, Fed moves had me in a daze,
But I evolve, adapt, and still set the stage.
Competitors
Hey Pensford, you think you’re the guru of the rate,
Missed the hikes, now you’re just trying to skate.
Chatham here, we’re giants, you’re just bait,
Sports in finance? C’mon, bruh, that’s second rate.
Pensford
Chatham’s got the size, but where’s the agility?
Forced out your founder, lost more than stability.
I keep it real, take a stand with ability,
While you sit back, no opinion, no liability.
Competitors
Pensford’s small time, flying in that tiny plane,
No market sway, just playing a losing game.
Your jokes fall flat, just like your rate claim,
Stick to sports, ‘cause in rates, you ain’t got no fame.
Pensford
CIRM, oh please, your strategy’s a maze,
Complex for no reason, clients lost in a haze.
And RCA? That flat fee’s just a phrase,
Blindsiding custys at closing? Your ethics, a craze.
Competitors
You’re just jealous, Pensford, of the leads we acquire,
Cold calls, maybe, but they ignite the fire.
Your data obsession? That’s just you in the mire,
While we adapt and soar, ever higher.
Pensford
Derivative Logic, you’re just copy and paste,
Stealing my style, but you can’t match my taste.
I’m the original, in this game, I’m laced,
With clever comebacks, watch how you’re displaced.
Competitors
Pensford, all talk, but where’s the proof?
Your forecasts fail, they’re just aloof.
We might borrow, but we stay under the roof,
Of innovation and truth, not just glib reproof.
Pensford
So here’s to Pensford, where cleverness reigns,
We miss a beat, but our humor sustains.
I’ll keep throwing verses, breaking these chains,
’Cause in this rate battle, it’s clear who gains.
Jay$
Hold up, hold up, let me step in this cypher,
Jay$ on the mic, about to make it hyper.
Y'all acting like children, throwing tantrums and shade,
While I'm steering this economy, making tough trade.
Pensford, you question my moves, but where's your degree?
State school educated, thinking you can school me?
I've got the cred, the experience, the clout,
My decisions are sound, no need for you to doubt.
Two years of rate hikes, and we're still standing strong,
Soft landing achieved, proving y'all doubters wrong.
I'm tired of being judged by those who can't see,
The bigger picture, the complexity, the responsibility.
We're in the last mile, inflation's final stand,
Like 8 Mile's battle, it's time to take command.
The Fed's my 313, Detroit of finance,
We'll slay this inflation beast, no matter the chance.
So keep your petty squabbles, your juvenile rhymes,
I've got a job to do, guiding through uncertain times.
Jay$ out, dropping the mic with finality,
'Cause when it comes rates, I'm the ultimate authority.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us.
To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here.
Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team.
If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark.
Thanks to everyone for your support. Here's to the next 15!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending.
Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact.
For those that want to check out more about SF Fed official Adam Shapiro's graph illustrating demand vs supply components of inflation...Click Here!
To view the graphs referenced, check out the latest Pensford Newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE!
We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings versus unemployment. We explore Fed Chair Powell's latest comments, the role of immigration and part-time work in today's economy, and the looming question: Is the current economic strength sustainable or just a sugar rush from stimulus spending?
To check out the graphs referenced, read the Pensford Newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong.
Want to read as well? Check out his Pensford Newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We’ll break down this week’s keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we’re setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we’re at and where we might be heading.
Weekly Pensford Newsletter
Want to subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter? Here you go!
Q1 Webinar Registration - Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 21st, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.
For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis)
To read the newsletter in all it's graph laden glory click here
On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation.
On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation. We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data.
To subscribe to JP's weekly Pensford newsletter, click here
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landscape, analyze financial indicators, and assess the implications of tightening banking standards and global disinflation trends.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP shares an experience from his first day on the Wachovia trading floor, highlighting the stress of betting $5 when you have $2 in your pocket. We discuss the impact of large Treasury issuances and the Fed's balance sheet reduction, the Treasury's new buyback program, and the effects of the Term Funding Program's conclusion on bank liquidity and Treasury investments. Then we look ahead to fewer data points this week, but numerous Fed speeches that may impact rates. To read more or to see graphs check out the Pensford Newsletter : https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/houston-we-have-a-liquidity-problem
On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy.
We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what they may mean for our economy.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out.
Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP lists his lead pipe locks for 2024...spoiler alert, there's no such thing as a soft landing and we will have a recession. We also take a look back at his lead pipe lock predictions for 2023 and grade him on how those panned out.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk inflation, unemployment, the 10 Year Treasury and if the Fed has already overdone it.
This Thursday we have our Q4 Interest Rate Webinar. Register Here -> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar-2023
Graph referenced
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps.
This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global data REALLY looks like. Thanks Brad!
This is graph heavy, so you may want to check out the Pensford newsletter to view them and the amazing photoshop job of Harbaugh as a Pulp Fiction character. This podcast is chalk full of JP angst, Chicago sirens and data that may leave you questioning the headlines.
Link to Brad Setser's "China Isn't Shifting Away From the Dollar or Dollar Bonds".
On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thread to emerge from the flurry of Fed speeches lined up this week—we'll tell you what we think that will be.
As promised, Ken/Barbie photo, the Sphere ad and the Birth/Death graph.
Birth Death adjustments continue their suspicious upward trend. Remember, this is the government’s estimate of jobs created out of the “birth or death” of businesses…but it’s a total guess. Is it weird to anyone else that this fudge factor keeps going up month to month? We are becoming overly reliant on this estimate to maintain positive job gains so the headlines can scream “tight labor market!”
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about GOATs, in sports, in comedy...in interest rates. We also analyze economic conditions and determine which inflation cycle fromt the past are we repeating and why, this week's Fed meeting, how governtment spending is impacting treasury yields, and the biggest contributing factors to a 5% 10Y Treasury and what will need to happen for it to move back toward 4%.
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast, we dive into the "gangbuster" jobs report and what details to pay attention to in this week's inflation data. Curious about the Fed's game plan and how it might impact 2024 rates? We've got some theories...but definitely not the conspiracy kind!
Numbers reference if the podcast. For more info check out the Pensford Newsletter.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs report and more importantly, JP will get his JOLTS report that he so loves!
If you missed our Q3 Interest Rate webinar here is the link! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8js3C0zyUiQ
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, Inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury and JP creates the seamingly impossible parallel between economic conditions and prime time tv.
We have our quarterly webinar this Thursday! Register here : https://www.pensford.com/q3-pensford-webinar-2023
For graphs referenced : https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/inflation-hammocking
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the unexpected outcome of the Texas vs. Bama game and take a look at the job market nuances and how they are coming up with the data that The Fed is so dependent on. We also talk about this week's anticipated inflation data and its implications.
On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.
On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and economic insights, as JP weaves it all together to challenge some traditional views on monetary policy.
Links Referenced:
- The research paper itself: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2787193
- The indices they created as a result of the research: https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/
Graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter on the homepage under "Latest Newsletter" https://www.pensford.com/
On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will the tightening actually continue to 'improve morale'?
For graphs referenced check out the Pensford's newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP.
On this special episode of The Rate Guy we discuss today's Fed meeting and translate what we think J Powell was trying to communicate in the Q&A.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's Fed meeting, what we expect for the rest of this year and if we can achieve a soft landing.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we analyze last week's inflation data, what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the confusion over why no one is talking about about FHLB advances.
What are FHLB advances? https://www.fhlbof.com/ofweb_userWeb/resources/lendingqanda.pdf
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why in the world rates would pop up in the face of a down jobs report and why the Market thinks there is nearly 100% chance that the Fed hikes at the next meeting...and why we think that's bonkers!
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony in front of Congress this week, how his hawkish comments effected the Market and what he continues to hold up as Exhibit A for why more hiking may be necessary.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss CPI, the Fed meeting and how the Market has been reacting the last month to the persception that maybe the Fed won't be cutting interest rates this year.
To register for our Q2 webinar this Thursday (6/15 @ 1pm est) click here--> https://www.pensford.com/q2-pensford-webinar-2023
Hope to see you there!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into the paradox of the strong job report and the Fed's reluctance to hike rates! Despite positive job growth, why is the rate hike's likelihood still in question?
We'll also uncover the complexities of wage inflation, treasury issuance, liquidity issues from the recent debt ceiling debate, and the challenges to our financial stability.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the 5 Reasons why The Fed won't hike on June 14th despite the hotter than inspected inflation data.
If you'd also like to read the Newsletter. Check it out here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-hike-june-14
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of a hike, pause and when the Fed may start cutting. We also touch on the Leading Economic Indicators index and what to look for this week from Fed speeches and Core PCE.
As always, graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford Newsletter at Pensford.com
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss The Pause (tm) and why future Fed moves will not be data dependent. For those that missed it here is JP's recap of last week's Fed meeting - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-next-fed-move-will-be-a-cut
Welcome to another riveting episode of The Rate Guy! Today, we're diving deep into the world of the NFL draft in more ways than one. We explore JP's alternate reality as an NFL GM, his embarrassing, but emotionally healthy football rage outlet that help him stay sane in the midst of football season.
Then we're adding a unique twist by conducting our very own Interest Rate Draft. Our star players? Jerome Powell, inflation, the labor market, fed pause and rate caps. We break down the game plan behind each contender, assessing their strengths and weaknesses.
Want to go directly to the Interest Rate Draft? Go to the ~13min mark.
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the Inflation report, stagflation and the status of the banking sector. We also touch on some leading indicators you might not be watching.
As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter
Here is the excellent piece that discussed that Wells put out this week. It is calling for FF to hit 2.50% in Q3 2024 (https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/6a9018a1-5d1a-4649-bb05-d3da7569fc2f)
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss money supply, the jobs report, volatility and the record credit crunch we are currently facing.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we lay out our current take on the Fed's situation, discuss the widespread layoffs and the upcoming jobs report.
For graphs referenced check out our Newsletter
ZipRecruiter conducted a survey of recently laid off workers (https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/survey-of-recently-laid-off-workers/).
Here's a list of some publicly announced layoffs (https://mondo.com/insights/mass-layoffs-in-2022-whats-next-for-employees/) - Roku layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Lucid Group layoffs: 18% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Meta layoffs: 13% of workforce laid off (March, 2023) - Twitter layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Twillo layoffs: 17% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Roomba layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Disney layoffs: 3% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Zoom layoffs: 15% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - Dell layoffs: 5% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - HubSpot layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - PayPal layoffs: 7% of workforce laid off (February, 2023) - IBM layoffs: 1.5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Gemini layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Yankee Candle layoffs: 13% of office workers laid off (January, 2023) - Spotify layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Google (Alphabet) layoffs: 6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Microsoft layoffs: 4-5% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Amazon layoffs: 1-2% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Carta layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Coinbase layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - DirecTV layoffs: 5-6% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
- Salesforce layoffs: 10% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Vimeo layoffs: 11% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Goldman Sachs layoffs: 8% of workforce laid off (January, 2023) - Stitch Fix layoffs: 20% of workforce laid off (January, 2023)
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell's primary messaging goals, the market's reaction to that messaging, and tightening credit conditions. The QE graph referenced:
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss March Madness as it relates to basketball and banking! We talk about the Fed jumping in for the failing banks, the thought process behind the two camps, to hike or not to hike this week, cap prices, and what toilet paper and volatility have in common. It's so crazy right now that it's easy to overlook that we have an FOMC meeting this week!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the only thing everyone is talking about, the fall of SVB. We touch on how the Fed may respond, important indicators that they can't ignore and if this could be the first domino to topple. JP pulls from his experience of surviving the Financial Crisis to shed light on what parallels he's seeing and what to be on the look out for.
On this short and sweet episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what Friday’s Core PCE report did to rate hike odds, what The Fed is doing to manage expectations, and the effects on Caps and the 10T.
Our Webinar is this Thursday! Here is the link to register to attend the Pensford quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 2, 2023 at 1:30pm EST!
https://www.pensford.com/q1-pensford-webinar-2023
See you there!
On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we welcome two of our favorite experts. Paul Peebles, the sage rainmaker from Old Capital and Michael Becker a 15 yr Commercial Real Estate veteran and co-founder / Principal at SPI Advisory, LLC. We discuss current market conditions, the hopes and concerns for our industry and what their saying "survive to '25" means to them.
You can listen to more of their wisdom on The Old Capital Podcast which caters to both novice and seasoned Real Estate Investors by providing genuine insights and practical knowledge. By listening to the interviews with active investors who are engaged in acquiring and operating apartment complexes, you can gain valuable knowledge from their experiences. Additionally, you can learn how they identify, finance, and operate these complexes, as well as receive helpful advice on getting started and avoiding common pitfalls.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell replacing, “Inflation is transitory” with, “The disinflation process has begun." And how this is a signal that that end of hiking is approaching. We also touch on inflation (obviously), money supply and cap rates.
To view graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss...a lot! We touch on last week's FOMC meeting, the impact of real rates being positive, why some skeptics (definitely not JP) are suspicious of the jobs number/JOLTS report, the Financial Conditions graph finally getting some love, and Cap Prices falling.
As discussed in the podcast, here is the piece by Preston Mui - https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/a-vacant-metric-why-job-openings-are-so- unreliable/
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we try to stifle our Eagles excitement to discuss the rapidly cooling economy, what we think Powell wants to see in real rates and why jobs data is a terrible leading indicator to watch. #flyeaglesfly
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the market is pricing in around fed funds, how the 10T could be effected by the crash landing, a reminder about the worst time to lock a rate and of course, THE EAGLES!
As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/crash-landing-here?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy we welcome special guest Tom Briney of Origin Investments. He enlightens us on the world class cycling realm, Origin's proprietary analytics model that beats all the top industry players' and his outlook for lending appetite in the year ahead.
To read Tom's latest article that we reference, click here.
"The Death of the Fed Put" - Tom Briney
On this special episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we lay out our Lead Pipe Lock market predictions for 2023 and JP reluctantly, but graciously walks us through his 2022 prediction fails. Warning - they were really bad! We also introduce you to the newest music sensation, Mexican Polka. You can thank us later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASD_qzjriWA
For graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/lead-pipe-lock-predictions-2023
Happy New Year Everyone!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we welcome our good friend and financing expert Jake Roberts of Abundance Capital. We discuss his journey to entrepreneurship, his team's vision and what they prioritize for success, his insights into today's lending market and what needs to change for transaction volume to return.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcase we discuss this week's FOMC meeting, inflation, expecations and the 10 Year Treasury. We also talk about what took our office by storm this week. ps. If you love your time, do not check out ChatGPT!
Pensford Newsletter: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/chatgpt-says-the-fed-wont-talk-about-pausing-this-week?hsLang=en
Pensford Q4 Interest Rate Webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VnSgeMtXiw
On this episode of The Rate Guy we reveal some interest findings in our research about job market stats and the Fed's decision making, specifically regarding rate pauses and cuts. It's a light data week ahead, but we do have our first ever Interest Rate Webinar this Tuesday, December 6th at 10am eastern! (sorry West Coast folks...that was our bad in scheduling!)
Interested in joining us for the webinar REGISTER HERE --> https://lnkd.in/gt3wFT_Z This webinar will cover a variety of topics including: - 2023 Rate Forecasts - Fixed vs Floating - Cap Cost Analysis - When Will the Fed Cut Rates? - And, undoubtedly, some trash talk
On this short and sweet Thanksgiving episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the dramatic change in Shipping/Port activity, the biggest takeaways from the FOMC minutes and the contrary Fed camps that are emerging.
If you want to check out JP's favorite graph, Financial Conditions, click the newsletter here ---> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/no-the-fed-is-not-pivoting-yet?hsLang=en
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss PPI (the Producer Price Index), the two opposing perspectives of the Market and the Fed, Stagflation, and JP's favorite graph ever...financial conditions.
Graph fans can check out the newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/2023-year-of-the-stag?hsLang=en
And if you're interested in joining us for the webinar December 6th, register here --> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar
This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:
- 2023 Rate Forecasts
- Fixed vs Floating
- Cap Cost Analysis
- When Will the Fed Cut Rates?
- And, undoubtedly, some trash talk
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the market's reaction to the inflation print and what Powell needs to see in order to change course.
Graph fans can check out the newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/unemployment-doesnt-go-up-until-the-fed-has-started-cutting?hsLang=en
And if you're interested in joining us for the webinar December 6th, register here --> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar
This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:
- 2023 Rate Forecasts
- Fixed vs Floating
- Cap Cost Analysis
- When Will the Fed Cut Rates?
- And, undoubtedly, some trash talk
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the FOMC meeting, Inflation data, the Jobs Report and the top 3 ways our Fed hikes are dramatically effecting the global economy.
If you want to skip the intro and hearing about JP's brush with fame (twice!), fast forward to the 10 min mark.
For the graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/fed-funds-to-5-in-q4?hsLang=en
WEBINAR SIGN UP! https://www.pensford.com/quarterly-call?hs_preview=GpGTQuSg-89727519126
Article about Philadelphia sports success predicting a recession. https://www.inquirer.com/business/phillies-astros-economics-recession-20221101.html
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's FOMC meeting. What Powell's frame of mind might be, his top concerns and the 4 things to be on the look out for during the meeting.
For visuals and super cool graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-fed-will-hike-to-4-this-week?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the super hot inflation data that came out last week, but also other factors that are lurking on the horizon that could prove to be an even bigger problem for our economy.
If you're interested in checking out the graphs referenced or subscribing to the Pensford newsletter...here you go! https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/infation-might-be-our-2nd-biggest-problem?hsLang=en
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the near catastrophic moment that England just experienced, how the current market could influence your fixed vs floating strategy and when we think rates will plunge next year and why.
To check out the graphs referenced, click here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-bottom-will-drop-out-next-year
On this episode of The Rate Guy we welcome our first guest ever, CEO and founder of one of the fastest growing multifamily firms in the country. We were thrilled to talk with Scott Everett who believes the Fed is over hiking, the Cowboys are better and the Eagles, and owning a Tequila brand is one of the most fun ways to lose a lot of money. Hope you enjoy our first interview as much as we did!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about all things Fed. We dissect the lesser talked about points from the FOMC meeting and how those will impact our industry. Then JP attempts to apply his ever-optimistic outlook on our 3 main takeaways.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Sarah's intro to the pit of despair that is Fantasy Football, the inflation data that came out last week, how that will affect this week's Fed hike and what the ramifications of that decision may be. We also pose the question, is it too soon to discuss the Fed overshooting it?
For graphs referenced, click here.
On this week's Rate Guy we, of course, touch on the start of the football season. Then we focus on inflation and what rules we think we're going to be playing by. Because as CRE professionals need to know so they can get back to what they do best...closing deals.
For graphs referenced click here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/we-just-need-to-know-what-rules-to-play-by?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how the 1970's era of super high inflation compares to the current environment and what that means for rate policy going forward.
There are lots of graphs referenced in this podcast. To view those, check out the Pensford newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/is-this-the-1970s-all-over-again?hsLang=en
We're glad to be back! On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the RV trip and the "best" memories we took away from the trip. Then we get into Inflation, Jackson Hole and what we think J Powell is focused on.
If you want to skip to Market talk, go to the 13 minute mark.
On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get stories about The Rate Guy name origin, JP's prowess on the Pickleball court, the jobs report and what the inflation data coming out this week may indicate.
If you want to skip to the market talk go to the 10 minute mark. If you want to hear how JP nearly "bled to death" this weekend listen to the intro!
As always, for graphs or other data referenced check out the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/will-cpi-take-the-worst-case-scenario-off-the-table?hsLang=en
https://traffic.libsyn.com/rateguy/The_Rate_Guy_-_ep_101_Will_CPI_Take_the_Worst_Case_Scenario_Off_The_Table.mp3
On this historic 100th episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, break down the possible response to 3 different scenarios, what we think the most likely hike will be and why. We also explore the emerging buyers market in real estate and how CRE & Multifamily Industries might respond to current and future interest rate conditions.
As always, for graphs & bonus data, check out the Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/75bps-or-100bps?hsLang=en
On this short and sweet episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all of the economic data that came out last week. Between our bouts of Friday punchiness we touch on how we think it will impact us in the short/long term.
For more of a deep dive this week check out the Pensford Newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/sofr-4.0-by-year-end?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "resilient" job market, what always affects gas prices, a line item not to miss in your negotiations, and, of course, lots of inflation talk.
If you want to read more, check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/is-inflation-finally-about-to-peak?hsLang=en
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss sports karma, the only thing that matters to Powell, and what data points to pay attention to as we approach a likely recession.
For graphs referenced check out the Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/unconditional-inflation?hsLang=en
On this special midweek edition of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about, what else, today's FOMC meeting. We touch on the top takeaways and JP has some warm and fuzzy data points that will undoubtedly make your day!
For more info and data referenced check out the Pensford newsletter here. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/sofr-to-4-by-march?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy all attention is on the upcoming Fed meeting and how dramatically expectations continue to shift.
To view graphs or other data referenced check out the Pensford newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/fed-funds-to-3.0-this-year?hsLang=en
We are super excited about this episode of The Rate Guy! We draw parallels between interest rate markets and TopGun Characters. If you're a fan of the movie we think you'll love it. If you don't like the movie...there are no words.
https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/interest-rates-the-top-gun-edition?hsLang=en
"I feel the need. The need for speed!"
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the improbability of a soft landing, what cooling inflation really looks like and what might be the most worrisome this to J Powell right now.
For graphs referenced check out our newsletter here: https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss if the bottom is actually falling out, inflation, and our hopes for the Core PCE number coming out this week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the recession threshold and when we're set to hit it. We also analyze our recent restrictive territory history and how the Fed behaved during those times. Link to the Pensford newsletter and graphs referenced. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/whats-the-game-plan-here?hsLang=en
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, how quantitative tightening could effect asset pricing and our take on when the economy could break itself throw us into a recession. To see the photo of J Powell as an astronaut check out the Pensford Newsletter! Pensford.com
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss GPD, inflation data, and the 10T number that you need to be paying attention to and why.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the reasons why inflation data may have come in below expectation and what might be the new normal for the 10 Year Treasury.
We cover a lot in this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast! We discuss probable Russian default, the MTE (monetary tightening to easing ratio), the impact of rate hikes coupled with balance sheet reduction, and why the odds of over hiking are significant.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the 4 ways that rising rates could effect our economy and the 1 thing everyone, including J Powell, should be paying attention to.
For graphs referenced or more info check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/its-the-liquidity-stupid?hsLang=en
On this special mid-week episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss all things Fed meeting. What the raise means short term, long term and the outlook on when to expect rates to start coming back down.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the biggest oddity of the jobs report, why cap prices exploded last week and how volatility works when it comes to interest rate pricing, and of course we had to talk about the Heels beating the Blue Devils. To check out the graphs referenced: https://www.pensford.com/interest-rate-caps-have-lost-their-dang-mind/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the possible impact Russia's invasion of Ukraine could have on rates, reasons why the short end of the curve is behaving differently than the long end and what may be a key driver of fed policy moving forward.
For extra content and graphs you can always check out the Pensford newsletter at https://www.pensford.com/is-the-10-year-treasury-too-complacent/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how interest rates and caps behave during a tightening cycle. We also address the top questions we are getting around cap pricing strategy and why you shouldn't neglect the floor during negotiations!
If you want to check out the graphs in the Pensford Newsletter go to https://www.pensford.com/how-do-floating-rates-behave-in-a-tightening-cycle/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what we can learn from past Fed tightening and easing cycles and why the best time to lock in a fixed rate is right before the Fed hikes...which we all know is on the horizon.
We talk about a lot of graphs in this podcast and those can be seen in the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/the-best-time-to-lock-is-right-before-the-fed-hikes/
Here is also the whitepaper, "The Hidden Cost Of Fixed Rate Debt," that we reference https://www.pensford.com/resources/the-hidden-cost-of-fixed-rate-debt/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss last week's FOMC meeting where Powell went full hawk and how the market may react. We also talk recession forecast and, of course, we had to acknowledge Brady's retirement by JP ranking his top 3 worstest moments in his career.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, what is driving the increase in cap pricing and what the Fed might do with its balance sheet.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the Jobs Report, the dramatic effect it had on rate hike expectations and JP's breakdown of his 2021 "lead pipe lock" predictions...spoiler alert...he missed a lot!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation, what risk is most unappreciated by the market, a shout out to JP's favorite economist Julia Coranado and, of course, what to look for out of the Fed meeting this week.
To see supporting graphs and infographics, check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/fomc-primer-will-the-fed-call-for-hikes-next-year/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss last Friday's Job Report and the corresponding plunge in interest rates that went along with it. We will also touch on the future of the 10T and how it relates to inflation.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what caused last week's rate plunge, FOMC's thoughts about inflation, tapering and the new variant's influence on short and long term rates.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss our ax throwing excursion, this week's Fed Chair announcement, inflation and what to expect out of the 10T over the next couple of years.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the topic that's leading all the headlines...inflation. We list five reason why inflation isn't as bad as it appears and what the Fed's next steps may be.
To view graphs referenced in our podcast, read our Pensford newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss what may be announced or avoided this week at the FOMC meeting and if interest rate volatility will continue.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the supply chain disruption, the epic spike in Cap pricing, GDP and why the market is pulling forward rate hike expectation so dramatically in such a short amount of time.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the possible reasons behind the Jobs Report miss, the debt ceiling and what to watch for around 10 Year Treasury moves.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we address the most popular questions we are getting around the floating vs fixed rates, the 10 Year Treasury and what might get the Fed to start tapering.
Here is the historic graph referenced in this podcast.
To view more graphs and content referenced check out the Pensford Newsletter at www.Pensford.com
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the top 5 things to watch for in The Fed meeting this Wednesday.
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the shockingly high PPI number that came back last week and how that could impact the rest of the economy and Fed policy. We also touch on the looming debt ceiling issue, what the market thinks about inflation and why we think the 10 Year Treasury is too low.
In this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Sarah's jury duty, the disappointing jobs report, the state of unemployment in the US and how that could affect our economy.
Articles referenced in our show:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/05/unemployment-benefits-economy/
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/04/end-to-federal-unemployment-benefits-leaves-many-uncertain-and-scared.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/06/politics/pandemic-unemployment-benefits-end/index.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/august-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11630624394
Jerome Powell visits the Pensford office:
In this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the impact of the Fed's tapering announcement on...everything! The Fed's balance sheet, Rates, The 10T, Inflation, Stocks...and more.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we touch on what may be discussed at this week's Jackson Hole Symposium and how that could affect rates.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how Fed Funds is probably negative and how that affects floating rate borrowers.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss our differing opinions on what defines courage, the Delta variant's possible effect on rates and where consumer confidence is tracking.
For graphs reference go to https://www.pensford.com/ and scroll down to click the newsletter on bottom left of home page.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the movement of the 10T and what is needed to see changes in inflation data.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss who and what is driving the Fed's decision process and why we didn't see more movement in the 10T last week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the dots that really matter in the median inflation data report, the SOFR transition and if the 10T will fall through another floor.
As always, you can view graphs referenced in the Pensford Newsletter. Go to www.Pensford.com, scroll and you'll see the newsletter link right next to the Cap Calculator.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we emerge from our graduation fog to do a short and sweet recap of the Jobs Report and discuss what data to look for this coming week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the Reverse Repo market and all its glory.
For further information and relevant graphs check out the newsletter here:https://www.pensford.com/whats-all-this-reverse-repo-stuff-about/
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the 3 reasons that fears of a taper tantrum are way overblown, what part of the curve the Fed is currently focused on and inflation concerns.
If you want to check out the graphs we reference in this podcast go to our weekly newsletter https://www.pensford.com/fears-of-a-taper-tantrum-are-overblown/
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss inflation, the velocity of money, tapering and the joys of having a high school Senior during this time of year!
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the disproportionate impact that COVID has had on working moms (some of the data was shocking), the terrible jobs report, the 10T drop, inflation expectation and what The Fed plans to do...or not do.
On this week's Rate Guy Podcast we discuss Europe's economic contraction, the FOMC meeting and what adjustments Economists have made in preparation for the upcoming Jobs Report.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting, Global influence on our rates and a spite url that became a legit website in honor of the Eagle's GM.
On this week's podcast episode of The Rate Guy we recap the retail sales, Inflation and where the 10T is headed from here.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the stimulus, GDP, inflation expectation and how all of that might affect rates....or not.
On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss some Easter shenanigans, March Madness, Jobs Report, GDP and possible movement of the 10 Year Treasury.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about busted brackets, how Biden's multil-trillion dollar package could affect rates and a healthy debate on our differing views of social support for Americans.
On this special mid-week edition of The Rate Guy we discuss Wednesday's FOMC meeting, what the Fed is planning on doing and of course J Money Powell's outlook on the whole situation.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss when the tipping point might be with vaccinations, JP's vaccination and of course a little bit about interest rates and what you might expect from the FOMC meeting this week.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss money supply, the relief package, what the Fed might do, and our outlook on inflation....and how much hate mail we might get for it!
You can find any graphs referenced in our Pensford Newsletter:
https://www.pensford.com/money-supply-is-driving-front-end-yields-lower/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the technical reasons for the 10T spike. We also talk about Convexity Selling, Budget moves in Congress and other issues that you need to watch because they can also affect the movement of the 10T.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the unpopular view that the 10T isn't going to run up. We explore the why behind that 10T belief as well as the concession Sarah had to make when they first started dating.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss 3 reason why you shouldn't believe the inflation hype. Can you guess what the top song was last time we hit 3% inflation? 4%? The answers sparked a little sing a long...of course. Hope you all had a nice day off for President's Day!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the steep yield curve and how it's a good sign for where things are going. Sarah won her bet with JP, hope you won your SuperBowl pool last night too!
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the Fed's current position, possible negative rates and what to be on the look out for this coming week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss what the 10T may do in the first 100 days of the new administration. We also revisit our pre-inauguration newsletter from 2016 and grade JP on how well he did on his forecasts.
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss market predictions for 2021 and then discuss what we got right this year and where we totally missed the mark. This is our last podcast of the year. Thank you for listening and we'll see you in 2021!
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss (in a creative way) how Wednesday's FOMC meeting could keep 10 Treasury rates low next year.
On this week's Rate Guy we discuss masks (yeah, we know...don't worry, it's just the intro), why rates popped up and the SOFR delay for legacy LIBOR Contracts.
On this week's Rate Guy we discuss who the next Treasury Secretary may be, if there will be a SOFR delay and JPM's call for a Double Dip. Lots of interest rate news and, of course, how badly JP's football teams are doing.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we talk about the vaccine news and how the market is reacting to it....and why we may need to temper our optimism.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we talk about the election and what a Biden win means for rates. We also discuss what the market will be looking for in the upcoming months.
For any data or graphs referenced you can check out the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/what-a-biden-win-means-for-rates/
On this episode of the Rate Guy Podcast, we discuss JP's excitement about the return of Big 10 football, what you need to look for in the heavy data week ahead and why a positive GDP won't cause rates to spike, but a shift in Treasury Supply could.
As always, you can find all of the exciting graphs in our weekly Pensford Newsletter. Go to www.Pensford.com and scroll to the bottom left.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss the potential results of the election, the impact those different scenarios will have on markets and we analyze data from the 2016 election to assist our viewpoint of the 2020 data.
Any graphs or data referenced can be found at our Pensford website. https://www.pensford.com/Election-Impact-On-Markets/
On this week's Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the different scenarios of Trump's diagnosis and how they may affect the market.
On this week's Rate Guy we discuss our new lawn (super exciting!), GDP and the economic consequences of Congress not passing a new stimulus plan.
As always, supporting graphs can be found in the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/fiscal-impasse-impact/
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss spite URLs, how many FOMC meeting predictions JP got right and why this generation may only hear inflation ghost stories.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss our son's failed attempt at stock trading and JP's predictions about what The Fed will announce at this week's FOMC meeting.
Today on The Rate Guy we pose a moral dilemma, discuss how the yield curve behaves after a recession and should you accelerate any deals you're working on before year end. All graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford newsletter at www.Pensford.com.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss The Fed's new view on inflation and how it affects monetary policy.
This week on The Rate Guy, we discuss the excitement on online learning, negative interest rates, how the yield curve never lies and suggestions on how to navigate through this time.
As always, any graphs discussed can be found in the Pensford newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/yield-curve-dont-lie/
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss stimulus need, college athletes getting paid, the SOFR transition and how permanent job losses are on par with the worst period of the financial crisis.
On this week's Rate Guy we discuss if Sweden is really doing that great, the Patriots tanking the season for a draft pick and how real rates will be negative. As always...graphs referenced in the podcast can be found in the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/real-rates-will-be-negative-until-they-arent/
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss sports without fans and what the economy needs to continue its recovery.
This week on The Rate Guy podcast we debate the good, bad and ugly scientific data about masks and what is actually keeping us safe. Go to www.Pensford.com for the newsletter and graphs referenced.
This week on The Rate Guy, we discuss what to expect from rates, fighting complacency and mitigating your risk during this time. As always, graphs referenced in the podcast can be found in the Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/
In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss how and why rates will stay lower for the foreseeable future. As always, graphs and more information can be found in the Pensford newsletter https://www.pensford.com/lower-rates-for-longer/
This week on The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss the rise COVID-19 cases, the mortality rate that the CDC is reporting and why fear and politics may be driving decisions, not science.
As always, graphs referenced in the podcast can be found here https://www.pensford.com/politics-dressed-up-in-a-lab-coat/
This week on The Rate Guy we discuss deflation and why the Fed is worried about it. We also discuss the protests and what our responsibility may be moving forward.
This week on The Rate Guy we discuss the shocking Jobs Report, current events and where our economy may go from here.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast we discuss the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery, swaptions and what strategies are popular right now.
On this week's podcast, The Rate Guy discusses the importance of supporting our health care workers with more than just a social media like or share.
This week on The Rate Guy we discuss why interest rates could go negative...spoiler alert...they already have!
As always supporting graphs and other info can be found in the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/five-reasons-why-interest-rates-could-go-negative/
This week, The Rate Guy Podcast discusses the illusion of safety as it applies to Federal Reserve intervention and how we plan to reopen our world. As always the Pensford newsletter can be found here https://www.pensford.com/the-illusion-of-safety/.
The Rate Guy discusses what Georgia and Sweden have in common, SOFR adoption and how the NFL draft made life seem normal, if even for a second. For more info or to check out graphs referenced, check out the Pensford Newsletter https://www.pensford.com/what-do-georgia-and-sweden-have-in-common/
This week The Rate Guy discusses how financial stress is causing LIBOR to be elevated and how it could be nearly 2030 before consumer confidence returns. As always, additional data and supporting graphs can be found in the Pensford newsletter at https://www.pensford.com/why-isnt-libor-at-0/
This week on The Rate Guy we challenge the accuracy of medical models and discuss whether they are as imprecise as economic models. As always find the newsletter at Pensford.com or click here https://www.pensford.com/medical-models-are-as-imprecise-as-economic-models/
This week, The Rate Guy explores the human toll and the social effects of an economic pandemic. All sources referenced can always be found in The Pensford Newsletter. https://www.pensford.com/the-human-toll-of-an-economic-pandemic/
In this week's podcast JP discusses how the Coronavirus and Economic Recovery Act of 2020 will affect our economy.
In The Rate Guy's first ever podcast, JP addresses the economic downside of COVID-19. Content and graphs referenced are from his latest newsletter "Why Flattening the Curve is Overrated". Link to newsletter if you'd rather read than listen https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening-the-curve-is-overrated/