Covering social and demographics - as STEEP bucket and how to use it in scenarios

Demographics:

• Foundation of a country
• Age structure and economic growth

• Application for geopolitics:

  • China is ageing and needs resources to care, might become difficult to grow quickly
  • US can depend on immigration, but not always - with the Trump Admin interruption
  • EU is tricky - immigration is now weaponised

  • China-boosters claiming rapid growth looks like a really tall order

  • Needs to change culture and society radically

  • Demographics is an example of a pre-determined trend

Uncertainty and Impactful

• Social ideologies are impact but highly uncertain

• Analysts must avoid judge-y language

  • Avoid 'good' or 'bad' and avoid leaning to one side
  • Present both sides with tradeoffs
  • Present information and someone representative of the identity to express opinions
  • Fanaticism seems connected with modernity

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Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com

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