Kevin Warsh is heading into his next Fed meeting with inflation pressures rising again, interest rates holding near recent highs, and investors watching to see whether his tough talk will turn into action.

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti break down why the Fed may have a harder time arguing that interest rates are restrictive, how renewed Middle East tensions are keeping pressure on oil, shipping, and inflation expectations, and why Warsh’s credibility could determine how long the Fed can wait before tightening policy. They also discuss whether the massive AI spending boom will actually pay off for today’s market leaders, why General Motors is leaning on high-margin trucks and SUVs, how tariff uncertainty is weighing on growth and hiring, and why housing inventory remains stuck below pre-COVID levels.