Since the October 2017 attacks by alleged Islamist insurgents- commonly referred to as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-al-Jama and locally know as Al Shabab- on Mocimboa da Praia, it has not been entirely clear who the attackers were, what their strategic objectives are, and on whose domestic and international support they rely. Today, almost everyone is aware of who these people are: the disgruntled youth of Cabo Delgado, who are demanding a slice of the resources that are found in abundance in their region. This paper, grounded in a historical understanding of conflict in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, seeks to identify possible stakeholders and scenarios in what we no longer see as an insurgency, but a war. This study will also seek to highlight the drivers of the conflict in Cabo Delgado, and attempt to answer the following questions: what does a peaceful intervention by the African Union (AU) look like? what must it avoid as a block to achieve normalisation and stability?

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