The revisions appear to have lowered several of the predicted risk profiles for harbour workers should fires or explosions break out accidentally around the proposed gas-to-power ships and pipelines in Richards Bay, Ngqura or Saldanha Bay.
Karpowership consultants have declined an opportunity to fully explain belated revisions to three specialist studies dealing with the deadly hazards of mooring several power ships in three SA ports for the next 20 years.
The revisions appear to have lowered several of the predicted risk profiles for harbour workers should fires or explosions break out accidentally around the proposed gas-to-power ships and pipelines in Richards Bay, Ngqura or Saldanha Bay.
For example, the predicted fatality distance of a transfer hose “flash fire” (previously calculated at 879m) has decreased by almost half to 499m. The maximum fatality distance for a “jet fire” drops from 568m to 188m, while in another scenario, another jet fire impact distance drops from 220m to just 15m.
Last year, Karpowership consultants submitted an environmental impact assessment (EIA) report to the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) as part of the approval process for the controversial Turkish-led “emergency solution” to the Eskom electricity crisis.
That study — rejected by DFFE assessors as flawed and inadequate — also contained three specialist reports compiled by Claude Thackwray, the head of Cape Town-based Major Hazard Risk Consultants.
Despite standing by her officials in rejecting the flawed EIA process, DFFE Minister Barbara Creecy granted Karpowership another bite at the cherry by giving it extra time to conduct further studies and public consultations as part of an extended EIA process.
Above: a Youtube clip showing an LNG road tanker explosion on the Beijing-Harbin highway in 2018.
The department’s rejection of the first study did not appear to raise explicit concerns around Thackwray’s major hazard installation (MHI) gas fire and explosion risk studies. (Under the Occupational Health and Safety Act, a major hazard installation is defined as an industrial facility which handles dangerous materials which could harm staff and members of the public in the vicinity in the event of an accident such as a major fire, explosion or release of toxic materials.)
Somewhat inexplicably, however, Thackwray has now compiled three fresh reports that contain several changes to the initial reports he signed off on in February 2021.
The new Thackwray reports, dated November 2022, were published as part of the second public participation process during a brief series of online and in-person meetings held ...