Mike's Notes: Recent Episodes

Mike's Notes

Mike's notes, in audio.

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See more at http://thewaiterspad.com

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More: https://thewaiterpad.com

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More at https://thewaiterspad.com/2021/08/05/a-confusing-life-expectancy-calculation/

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Five examples about clever Customer Acquisition (Cost) Strategies

  1. The Happy Meal

  2. AOL Discs

  3. HoTMaiL

  4. Netflix Coupons

  5. Zillow vs Expedia

sorry for the previous episode's audio

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The transition from physical to digital is currently happening, this episode looks at examples so far, and tries to raise an awareness for noticing things in the future. Digital is not better than physical, but digital does improve things relative to certain jobs to be done.

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What are the stakeholders in our lives and what questions can we ask about them?

donate: http://paypal.me/mikedariano venmo: mike-dariano

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Notes and highlights from Walton's book, https://amzn.to/2uu4S6q. More at http://thewaiterspad.com/2018/07/26/sam-walton.

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In this episode, we'll look at the numbers (from A or Z to A to Z), the world (it changes), and the brain (it's fast). I'll also suggest some solutions like getting distance, asking 'What's cheaper than a helicopter?', and the advantages of travel.

Hans Rosling's is a nice contribution to the literature of books like A Field Guide to Lies, The Half-Life of Facts, How to Lie with Statistics, and How Not to Be Wrong. What makes Rosling's book different (and excellent) is the gusto. It's a book written by calloused hands. The words on the page are the same that he spoke in Davos. The thoughts are important and the thinking is too.

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Links at http://thewaiterspad.com

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from the 5/2/18 Wharton Moneyball Podcast ... "In Gladwell's book, he pointed out in the NHL all these great players were all born in January and February. The leagues are all by age, and so they're older than the other kids and they get the best coaches, and they do the best early, and they go in the best leagues so there's a huge skew toward hockey players born early in the year. Well, in horse racing, every horses's birthday is officially January first. So you're a three-year-old on January first but they're born anywhere from January through June. Since they are only three years old and aren't mature till five you're talking about adolescence. A horse that was born in January is almost forty months old and a horse that was born in May or June is thirty-five or thirty-six months. (In people) it's like fourteen-year-olds versus sixteen-year-olds. It's a big deal." Jeff Seder

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"Teams need to be thoughtful in the way they present this information and they need to allow for different players to want data in different ways. They need to be flexible to really make a difference." Cade Massey "I remember Sam Hinkie talking about how he conveys information to the organization. Back when he was working for Daryl Morey as assistant GM of the Rockets, Sam would give information to his head coach one way, to Daryl in a different way, to the players in a third way altogether. You're going to be dramatically more effective as an analyst if you can communicate in different ways tailored to the audience." Cade Massey From the 5/2/18 Wharton Moneyball Podcast

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In The Success Equation http://amzn.to/2ecUWVU Michael Mauboussin urgers readers to ask; how fast is mean reversion, how predictable is the result, and are cause and effect easily identifiable? Those answer will guide a person to using base rates or experience as their decision guide.

This clip is from the 5/2/18 Wharton Moneyball Podcast

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1/ Adapting your thesis 2/ Crypto-currency and techno-economic changes. 3/ Wolrd After Capital

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How do you make Billions? Spend two hours a day six days a week writing in a storage locker with one chair with your best friend and then repeat that (kinda) for twenty years.

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notes at http://thewaiterspad.com/2018/04/10/katrina-lake

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In summary, Danielle Weisberg and Carly Zakin have succeeded because they noticed poor product-market fit and made a small bet to build something using their existing skills and being curious along the way. Once their brand snowball got rolling, they focused on strengthening it and are now expanding to other areas.

More notes at https://thewaiterspad.com/2018/03/19/theskimm/

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  • Why does alpha erosion occur?
  • How are business moats built?
  • Who are the best capital allocators? Show notes at: http://thewaiterspad.com/2018/03/01/moats-and-allocators

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David Ogilvy was known for his advertising 'rules.' After diving deeper into his work I found out these aren't really rules at all but conclusions. Ogilvy's first principle is do what works. This episode will focus on three things that anyone in any industry can do.

1/ He was objective in his research. If the facts differ from your beliefs, change your beliefs rather than the facts.

2/ He created advertising around big ideas. Images should aim to inspire intrigue, not win awards at Cannes.

3/ He groomed a culture. Hire "gentlemen with brains" and give them the autonomy to do good work. Also, avoid bureaucratic bloat. "If you were a dairy farmer and kept cows, would you employ twice as many milkers as you have cows?"

A pdf of this is available at http://thewaiterspad.com

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A few things that caught my eye. Notes at http://thewaiterspad.com Why is Nick Saban undefeated against former assistant coaches? Why is Philadelphia an undefeated home underdog? Why are there called strikes in betting pools? Why is visualizing data so helpful? Why is novel data helpful too? Why is a bit identity footprint better?

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More details at: http://thewaiterspad.com

Arthur's paper: http://www.iwp.jku.at/born/mpwfst/02/BArthur/Arthur_B.pdf

Mauboussin's interview: https://overcast.fm/+Iz-J-F6_E

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Part two of the audio version of these posts: https://thewaiterspad.com/?s=%22TIL2017+Summary+Series%22

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An audio version of the end-of-year posts at http://thewaiterspad.com

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For links and block quotes: https://thewaiterspad.com/2017/10/23/rory-week-15/

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Notes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HL5xe_oUzThcpZLYiiTVqRjaXRs4w8DMnTkUU1m4pZw/edit?usp=sharing

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We all exist within a system and each system nudges (or shoves) us certain ways. Whether it's women in tech, people on bikes, or neighborhoods with more roads than sidewalks.

Inspiration from http://amzn.to/2xBVGj6

Notes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1P7RdgegXusudhZBhhfQF3lfV77Vlofwf6GQgRMNocQQ/edit?usp=sharing

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Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2vpYJJK

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For All the Tea in China http://amzn.to/2u9Mam1 is a wonderful book. It covers the 1800 East India Company, Robert Fortune (and his forgotten wife!), and how to succeed in England without even dying. We'll touch on only a few parts of Fortune's story.

Modern Monopolies http://amzn.to/2uj8REC makes the case that it's platform businesses that will rule the day. I guess that YouTube is the best of these. We also look at 6 things platforms need to do (#5 is no naked men).

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Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2ti2tKk Any business person needs to get out of the office and talk to her suppliers, customers, and competitors. "Get up and go outside, you'll learn more in five minutes of talking to somebody at a company than you will in a week of crunching its numbers." - Stephen Mandel They'll all have their own biases but they also have crucial information. You will too. "I was mixing up what I liked with what my customers wanted, writes Fearon. If you make a mistake, get out. "Quitting is very important when buying and selling stocks."

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Early Retirement Extreme by Jacob Fisker http://amzn.to/2tnUNJ1 1. Reframe where you are. 2. The more you know the less you need. 3. A robust modular life.

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OODA WHAT? by MIKE

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OQ/ http://amzn.to/2rQ59hC 1/ The Startup, http://amzn.to/2rftD5h. Failed startups, http://amzn.to/1nztynB 2/ Breaking apart problems (multiplication, Legos) 3/ Beanie Babies post, http://thewaiterspad.com/2017/06/07/beanie-babies/beanie-babies 4/ Culture advice from a "Bull"

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OQ: http://amzn.to/2rftD5h 1/ Star Wars convexity 2/ Checklists are fun! 3/ Base rates on motorcycles 4/ The stories we tell ourselves

Support: https://gumroad.com/l/mikesnotes

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OQ: http://amzn.to/2pBTq6T 5:50 don't shoot the dog 11:30 walking the idea maze 17:30 boring businesses 23:30 the David Swenson checklist

Support: https://gumroad.com/l/mikesnotes

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OQ: Dan Carlin on the History on Fire podcast 1/ What job does this service/product do? What job are YOU hired for? 2/ Good decision makers put their thoughts down on paper. One way to do that is with checklists. 3/ To learn, find relevance not information. 4/ Common principles to wealth and health. (https://thewaiterspad.com/2017/05/15/finances-and-fitness/)

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OQ: http://amzn.to/2pBTq6T

1 What to do when 'that's interesting.'

2 Technology is not the MIT for technology startups, instead it's luck, persistence, and elbow grease.

3 When starting, copy structures, formulas, or philosophy. When advancing be more like Sherlock Holmes

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Intro: the metaphor of tracking (Boyd Varty on Invest Like the Best). 1/ Thinking Small, http://amzn.to/2oNLFKF. 2/ Multiple compound yields and the triangle of mediocrity. 3/ Patrick Collison on starting a startup 4/ Me on Ryan Holiday on reading

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Greek heroes, getting better, building your toolbox, and arguing well.

Mike's Notes - https://thewaiterspad.com/mikes-notes/

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From Santa Fe Institute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSCbnS1yCzI

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Intro: Tools of Titans, but for classical education 1/ 20 year technology cycles 2/ Using the 51% solution at Soulcycle 3/ Reading advice from president Obama's Chief of Staff

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Feedback: https://thewaiterspad.com/podcast-feedback/ Monthly subscription: https://gumroad.com/l/mikesnotes

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How to learn algebra.

What does flipping burgers and "plain vanilla stock picking" have in common?

Can you get paid more for the work you love? (Sisyphus)

A couple lessons from Danny Meyer.

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All NBA edition, mostly based on Daryl Morey's interview with Zach Lowe at MIT Sloan. Questions? 559-464-5393 or @mikedariano

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Introduction quote: http://www.safalniveshak.com/investing-simple-not-easy/

Taleb’s MOOC: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww

Prisoners of Geography: http://amzn.to/2lWGK79 a16z podcast: http://a16z.com/2017/02/25/reedhastings-netflix-entertainment-internet-streaming-content/

Cowen’s book: http://amzn.to/2lWA6Og

The Marshmallow Test: http://amzn.to/2mrwWBW

Pressfield interview: http://www.artofmanliness.com/2017/02/23/podcast-281-overcoming-resistance-turning-pro/

Bushnell interview: http://www.npr.org/podcasts/510313/how-i-built-this

My blog: http://thewaiterspad.com

My latest project: https://gum.co/philiprocess

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Opening quote: www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/02/16/entrepreneur-takes-wednesdays-and-it-has-made-him-millions.html

1/ 1:30 Malcolm Gladwell solves the endowment effect.

2/ 5:05 Setting The Table by Danny Meyer. http://amzn.to/2kGVzO0

3/ 10:45 What does retirement mean? Inspiration from EarlyRetirementExtreme.com and MrMoneyMustache.com

4/ 13:45 Personalization is hard but something we need more of.

5/ 17:02 How businesses are like fractals. Inspired by InvestorFieldGuide.com

My blog: TheWaitersPad.com Feedback: thewaiterspad.com/podcast-feedback/

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Intro quote from: http://amzn.to/2kJDfzz

Russ Roberts explains hindsight bias (02:00)

When listening, aim for understanding not necessarily agreement (07:05)

Backstops for life (09:55)

Context matters, NBA edition with Bill Simons (15:40)

Public understanding of risk (19:55)

Feedback: https://thewaiterspad.com/podcast-feedback/ My book about Belichick: http://amzn.to/2kYSrMR My website: http://thewaiterspad.com

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A new format for the podcast as I tinker. For now expect weekly summaries - released on Thursdays - of things I learned. (00:39) Judd Apatow explains loss aversion via Super Bowl bets. (03:45) The importance of work relationships - something I lack. (08:45) Solving problems with knowledge from more than one domain. (13:10) Asymmetrical returns. What areas of your life can you 'tip the scales' so if you win you win big but if you lose you lose little or nothing? (20:26) Digging past the first statistic. How much does earnings season matter? How accurate are average Super Bowl ticket prices? We should be careful.

If you liked this episode and format you can let me know by clicking here: https://thewaiterspad.com/podcast-feedback/

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Judd Apatow explains Loss Aversion on The Adam Carolla Show by MIKE

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Inspired by this post: https://thewaiterspad.com/2017/02/06/read-more-books-part-deux/

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Audio of posts at http://thewaiterspad.com Print version of this http://amzn.to/2kYSrMR Contact me: http://twitter.com/mikedariano or mikedariano@gmail.com

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First level thinking; LeBron James and the Atlanta Falcons by MIKE

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In Misbehaving (http://amzn.to/2jUVWQ9) Richard Thaler writes about his experience advising the owners of the struggling ski slope, The Greek Peak. We'll look at what he suggested and how your own business can apply the lessons of transaction utility (getting a good deal), mental accounting (small additions to large purchases), and surprises.

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An audio version of this blog post: https://thewaiterspad.com/2017/01/13/howard-markss-expert-opinion/

Five big ideas. 1/ (Social) Media is more entertainment than information. 2/Be there to learn more. 3/ Experts on TV/in magazines are not good forecasters - but you can be. 4/ Should you and can you know? Should you care? 5/ Metaphors can be LIARS! 6/ Certainty is a lie.

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An audio verion of this blog post. https://thewaiterspad.com/2017/01/09/chris-cole/

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Five ideas from the first fifty pages of http://amzn.to/2g9C26r 1/ Most of the time our intuitions are right. 2/ Never forget to account for luck. 3/ System 1 is "automatic and effortless." 4/ System 2 can ONLY run consecutive tasks. 5/ Guarding against ego depletion.

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An audio version of this post: http://thewaiterspad.com/2017/01/04/moats-profitability-and-podcasts Inspired by this post: https://25iq.com/2016/11/18/why-moats-are-essential-for-profitability-restaurant-edition/

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Why should leaders go to the front lines? 1/ It gives them details they don’t see from their office. 2/ It gives trust and authority with insiders (your team) and outsiders (your critics and fans). 3/ It allows better alignment between strategy and action. Sources Jocko podcast (YouTube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFS7jBQFOcU Mountains Beyond Mountains: http://amzn.to/2icYxYq The Fish That Ate The Whale: http://amzn.to/1WkjNcR With the Old Breed: http://amzn.to/2hJIPAr

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049 "Dear Chairman" book review by MIKE

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048 Thinking about inversion by MIKE

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047 What happened to Nasty Gal? by MIKE

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046 Chesterton fences on submarines by MIKE

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045 The Harry's Model by MIKE

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A few (more) things I learned from http://amzn.to/2evaRPp

This episode does not cover disruption theory.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: Topher Mohr

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Inspiriation: http://amzn.to/2evaRPp Looking at 4 things in the framework of Amazon. 1/ Christensen's Disruption Theory. 2/ How many Harvard MBAs does it take to screw in a lightbulb? 3/ The roll of luck and skill in Amazon's early days. 4/ Maniacs. Intro: Bensound.com Outro Topher Mohr

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Inspiriation: http://amzn.to/2ecUWVU Blog: http://thewaiterspad.com Intro: http://bensound.com Outro: Topher Mohr & Alex Elena

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A podcast version of this post: https://medium.com/mikes-notes/advice-from-the-outsiders-3cf9eb9827c7#.ehnyua55z Based on this book: http://amzn.to/2dsO7A5 - 1/ Be different and find truths. 2/ Keep an (inner) scorecard. 3/ Decentralize. 4/ Forecasting well is hard; a high investments (in time) and low return activity. 5 Keep a low overhead. 6/ Think like a croc. - Intro music: BenSound.com Outro music: The Creek, Topher Mohr & Alex Elena

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Part of this book: http://amzn.to/2e555b7 Intro by Ben Sound. Outro by K-391

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A few ideas from Howard Marks book The Most Important Thing

1/ It's not easy. 2/ Mapping and cycles as models. 3/ Margin for errror. 4/ The future is unknowable. 5/ Live to fight another day.

Intro by BenSound.com Outro by Tophor Mohr and Alex Elena.

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The first section of my book, 28 Lessons from Startups That Failed, http://amzn.to/1nztynB There were five ways founders made the customer mistake: 1/ There were no customers to begin with. 2/ The customers were part of a bureaucracy 3/ The customers weren't asked to buy 4/ Founders talked to non-customers 5/ The customers were free users

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Six things I noted about Instagram's success. 1/ Imitation is a place to start, but not finish. 2/ A lower overhead is a longer survival. 3/ Luck matters. 4/ Win on third down. 5/ Good timing helps a lot. 6/ Everything is a trial by fire. Intro music from K-391, outro from Topher Mohr and Alex Elena. I'm on Twitter, @MikeDariano, On the phone, 559-464-5393, On the web, http://thewaiterspad.com

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Stories of pattern recognition and ideas about how to do it better.

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Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2bnwdxU In what ways can we take Belichick's football decision making skills and apply them to our own lives? 1/ Red teaming (cutting Bernie Kosar). 2/ Relentlessness (Tom Brady too). 3/ Being a secret finder (fitness, film). 4/ Getting lucky (and knowing it). Here's the blog where I'll be writing more about red teaming, http://thewaiterspad.com.

Intro music from BenSound.com, outro by K-391.

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Does Bill Simmons make super forecasts? Let's look at his NFL podcast preview and see. We'll look at: 1/ Finding good value and not obvious winners. 2/ Stay away when things are too hard. 3/ Mean reversion when randomness abounds. 4/ SITG. 5/ Invert (always invert!). 6/ What are the full range of outcomes?

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Life lessons from (just the early part) of http://amzn.to/2bYAKGb, by Gene Kranz, flight director for the NASA Apollo missions. What does Kranz have to teach us? 1/ you will never be ready 2/ the value of role play 3/ pattern recognition 4/ don’t just do something, sit there. 5/ 10k hours and the support you need

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An investigation of things Michael Mauboussin told Barry Ritholtz in their Bloomberg podcast. The big ideas:

1/ Know the pot and the payout. 2/ Incentives matter. 3/ The inside and outside views. 4/ Wonderful storytelling machines.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: K-391 A digital version to read: http://amzn.to/2bvKhpH

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From a person who walked the walk and talked the talk. Four ideas from Grove. 1/ Be there to know what’s going on. 2/ Have a Devil’s advocate. 3/ Decentralized command is a powerful tool. 4/ People are involved and people have emotions.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: The Creek by Topher Mohr Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2aRqYnm Notes: https://thewaiterspad.com/2016/08/17/10267/

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What does the best American college coach have to teach us? 1/ The value of hustle and the grind. 2/ Want success? Increase the denominator. 3/ You'll need some luck. 4/ Imitate to start. 5/ Focus on your most important things. Intro: BenSound.com Outro: K-391 Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2blaUyu

Note: This was more a freestyle, rambling episode. The tighter format will be back.

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1/ Scratch your own itch. Laura Brockington just wanted to play soccer. She was motivated and invested. 2/ Easier now than ever. New things will always be hard. Outcomes will always be unclear. But it’s never been easier to try. 3/ Make it easy for someone else to say ‘yes’.In an upcoming episode we’ll dive into one of the best books on this, Getting to Yes. 4/ Surf well. If you know how to surf and are one of the first at the beach, you can ride the waves all day long. Don’t lose that advantage by getting mired in the shallows.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: K-391

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What happened to Yahoo? Taking notes from Kara Swisher and Eric Jackson, there were five things I noticed: 1/ Beware of executives that succeed because of rising tides and tailwinds. 2/ Don’t forget about the MIT 3/ Built up experiences (or read books for a shortcut) to help you recognize patterns. 4/ Know your strengths and your weaknesses. Punt what you don’t do well. 5/ Reduce stakeholders to get more options. You need a long runway to experiment. the more career capital you have, easier cutting down will be.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro:K-391 Inspiration: http://www.recode.net/2016/7/29/12314580/yahoo-verizon-kara-swisher-marissa-mayer-recode-podcast & http://www.recode.net/2016/8/1/12339366/yahoo-verizon-aol-deal-explained-podcast

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Inspiration from Jack Schwager's podcast with Barry Ritholtz. Here we talk about: 1/ Plan B (Kahneman and Fast & Furious) 2/ Rising tides and Buffett's ducks 3/ Patience for fat pitches. What Louis CK hit but Mark Zuckerberg missed.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: K-391

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Another Warren Buffett episode. This one focuses on his early (pre-1976) writings. We’ll examine: 1/ How Buffett used red flags to tell people when to switch investments. 2/ How Buffett focused like a flashlight. 3/ Buffett’s advice for “turning over a lot of rock,” and three ways to encourage your search. 4/ Buffett was like a pirate. A good haul and he’d be rich, a poor captain and the crew could take over. These are win win situations. 5/ Buffett knew he was dealing with people, and acted accordingly. 6/ Ducks? Yes.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: K-391 Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2aqi4ya Donation: cash.me/$mikedariano

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Neville Isdell was the former chairman and CEO of Coca Cola. I found his book on accident, happily.

Isdell's story isn't well known - or at least to me - and so his 'off the beaten track' experiences are extra valuable. What helped a kid born in Ireland, who grows up in Africa, starts his career in white South Africa and goes on to work in the Philippines and German succeed? There were five themes in my notes: 1/ Isdell was motivated by more than money. Once we take care of our basic needs (not our basic wants) we can focus on only the most important things. 2/ Isdell was "there." Being there is crucial to certain jobs. 3/ Isdell married the right person. I loved the story he told about the trip to their honeymoon destination. 4/ Isdell had clever red flags (though not as clever as David Lee Roth, who makes an appearance). 5/ Isdell ran red team meetings.

Intro: BenSound.com Outro: K-391 Inspiration: http://amzn.to/29oOXcD Donation: http://cash.me/$mikedariano

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Nothing new here, just a reminder -- which we all need.

Buffett isn't brilliant because he's rich. Fellow billionaire Seymour Schulich wrote, "The word ‘billionaire’ is a very crude and inaccurate measure of how well I have played the game of life.”

Buffett is popular because of how he did it, not what he did. This episode looks at 5 ways. 1/ Buffett seeks few possessions. 2/ Buffett waits "for the right pitch." 3/ Buffett focuses on results. 4/ Buffett values good work over good tools. 5/ Buffett is a (patient) pattern recognizer.

Intro music from BenSound.com. Outro music from K-391. Inspiration: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/person-to-person-warren-buffett/ Donation: http://cash.me/$mikedariano

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Two ideas today; stakeholders and culture.

Stakeholders are the people you answer to; investors, advertisers, internet providers, and spouses.

Culture is the spirit of a place. It's something "you have to see to believe."

This podcast was inspired by: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2016-06-24/interview-with-wesley-gray-masters-in-business-audio. Intro music from BenSound.com. Outro music from K-391.

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Even though he lived (and thrived) 100+ years ago, Milton Hershey succeeded in business using techniques people still suggest today. In this episode we'll look at seven of them. 1/ Hershey was a relentless tinkerer. 2/ Hershey had a deep understanding 3/ Hershey had a supportive spouse. 4/ Hershey had a moment. 5/ Hershey had good people around him. 6/ Hershey was lucky. 7/ Hershey escaped the competition.

Intro from Bensound.com

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Advertising parodies are funny but prove serious things. In this podcast episode we look at three: 1/ How stakeholders influence range of motion. 2/ Gray areas, and lines not to cross. 3/ Why good comedians are deep learners.

Inspiration from http://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/commercial-parodies-1.3637767 Intro music from BenSound.com

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One way we "fool ourselves" (Feynman) is the sunk cost bias. Dr. John Cooke saw it in his academic research, Mohnish Pabrai saw Charlie Munger avoid it, and Richard Thaler saw it but didn't know it.

What are sunk costs, and how can we avoid them? After asking the question, Feynman also gives us the answer.

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Though the founding times were 40 years apart, both Knight (http://amzn.to/1YehxD3) and Thiel (http://amzn.to/1UkFFTc) have similar thoughts about starting businesses. This episode looks at five: 1/ Why to look for secrets. 1:05 2/ Where to look for secrets. 2:37 3/ Relentless searchers. 4:43 4/ Good people. 7:45 5/ Org. culture. 9:20

Intro music by BenSound.com

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Inspiration: Eight Men Out by Eliot Asinof http://amzn.to/22xPejF

Lessons. 1/ We get emotionally invested in the thing we do.  2/ Home field advantage helps; from sports to law to war. 3/ Dominos can fall in unexpected directions.  4/ In strengths are weaknesses and in weaknesses are strengths. The players were incredibly unorganized, and they earned less in bribes than promised. But, this proved to be their (legal) escape hatch. 5/ Extras help. Airplanes have extra space, companies have extra money, bodies have extra parts. The people who came out of the scandal best were the ones who had extra resources going in. 6/ Conditions matter. The macroeconomics conditions of World War I suppressed player’s salaries. The conditions of frustration during the initial discussion led to some players agreeing but having second thoughts.

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Inspiration: http://amzn.to/1TOa0ba

Big ideas: 1/ History isn't always rosy, with quotes from Charlie Munger and Marc Andreessen. 2/ Two paths diverged in a woods...and Ponzi went with the devil on his shoulder. 3/ Incentives matter. Part of the reason Ponzi was so successful was because of his salesmen.

Read more at, https://thewaiterspad.com/2016/06/08/charles-ponzi/

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016 Six takeaways from SebastianJunger's podcast with Tim Ferriss by MIKE

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From being your best customer to knowing the pot odds and ante, deGraff shared a few good ideas.

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We all have default choices for things (like how you take your coffee). Some of these defaults - we'll also call them scripts - can be like levers, where only a small amount of effort has dramatic results.

The most damaging are the negative mental scripts we have.

In this episode the characters are Barbara Corcoran, Felicia Day, and Gary Vaynerchuk. We'll look at a story from each and how they rewrote their mental scripts.

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Good things take time. This podcast uses stories from Gary Vaynerchuk, Steven Pressfield, and Felicia Day to encourage people who haven't made a destination yet.

Good things are also fractal, that is, no matter what level you're at there are rewards and obstacles. Our characters all face challenges now that they are "successful" just like they did "before they were successful." Now, the challenges are different.

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Our three characters: Austin Kleon, Mark Webster, Maria Popova.

Sometimes we think that the things we don't have access to are the things that we need. "If only I had more time/money/freedom/connections."

Maybe that's not what we need. Maybe it's exactly what we don't need.

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Our three characters to explain the finish line fallacy; Warren Buffett, Tadas Viskanta, and Josh Williams.

Also, what I think about when I run on the treadmill, and why it's harder each year I get older.

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One way to have optionality (episodes #001, #002) is to have low overhead. In this episode we look at how commedians, failed startups, and Sophia Amoruso approached this idea and why.

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Survivorship bias explained with World War 2 airplanes, basketball players from New York City, and mutual funds. This episode is part of the https://medium.com/survivorship-bias project.

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The gear you use doesn't matter. It's not about the best mic or software or camera. It's about doing the work. We'll use the examples of Casey Neistat, B.J. Novak, and Gina Trapani to see how.

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What if instead of paying someone for an MBA you did it yourself? What if you took that money and invested it, or bought books, or built a car wash?

What would that look like?

Let's find out how 3 people did just that.

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006 Danger in Safety by MIKE

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With examples from Google, Stephen Gould's cancer diagnosis, and how many games the Cleveland Cavaliers might win.

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Systems are everywhere around us. They're as simple as Lego bricks and as complicated as the stock market.

If we can learn to listen to systems we can hear the signals more clearly. We'll know when it's bad to climb down mountains, when football plays won't work, or how not to surf.

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Inspired by the book, The Hard Thing About Hard Things, there are ways to think about difficult problems that help us solve them.

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How Jerry Seinfeld described his optionality in 1983.

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What is optionality, why is it important, and who has used it?