Why you should use percentages, not words, to express probabilities.
https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is
* document
* Sherman Kent
* noting ruefully
* Phil Tetlock
* vague verbiage gives you political safety
* best-known version
* similar
* results
* fresh survey
* Quora
* women use uncertain words and phrases more often than men do
* avoid nonnumerical words or phrases and turn directly to probabilities
* literature
* results
* common in psychology research
* More-experienced analysts are generally well calibrated
* subjective probabilities
* pin down your subjective probability
* Brier score
* better your forecasts, the better your decisions
* Good Judgment Open
* Metaculus
* PredictIt