As the week gets set to wind down, we think the biggest takeaway is the ongoing upside pressure on inflation around the globe. We’ve seen a number of record prints here and there, and in the US, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that we could still see more upside pressure.
Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/03/3marchlmaxaudip.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Still looking for higher low * GBPUSD Room for more weakness * USDJPY Don’t rule out one more drop * AUDUSD Setbacks should be supported * USDCAD Sights set on additional upside * NZDUSD Well capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Looking for downtrend resumption * GOLD (spot) Setbacks seen forming higher low
Fundamental highlights EURUSD ECB officials downplay core inflation * GBPUSD Pound can’t shake dovish BOE comments * USDJPY BOJ no hurry attitude forces more Yen sales * AUDUSD Aussie building approvals fall most on record * USDCAD Canadian Dollar gets help from commodities * NZDUSD Kiwi feeling a little better on solid data * US SPX 500 Inflation headache not going away * GOLD (spot) Dealers report* plenty of demand
30 Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Wall Street Traders Have Lost Much of Their Swagger, A. Brown, Bloomberg (March 1, 2023) * The Reason the Recession Hasn’t Happened Yet, A. Lowrey, The Atlantic* (March 1, 2023)
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GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro is in the throes of a correction following a run to the topside through 1.1000 earlier this year. Any additional setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.0200 in favor of the formation of the next major higher low and a bullish continuation. Ultimately, only a monthly close back below parity would give reason for concern.
R2 1.0805 – 14 February high – Strong
EURUSD – fundamental overviewEU core CPI printed a record number, but this wasn’t enough to help the Euro, with Fed expectations continuing to offset. There are some who believe the ECB is downplaying the rise in core inflation and won’t have the nerve to match market expectations for higher rates. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade and PMI reads, Eurozone PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, Canada building permits, US ISM non-manufacturing, and some Fed speak.
EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now
GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The recent weekly close back above the September high at 1.1739 strengthens this prospect. Any setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 1.1500. Next key resistance comes in at 1.2668.
GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound is struggling from dovish BOE comments from earlier in the week. BOE Bailey was out saying nothing was decided with respect to the rate trajectory. This coupled with an ongoing hawkish repricing of Fed expectations easily accounts for the recent Pound weakness. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade and PMI reads, Eurozone PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, Canada building permits, US ISM non-manufacturing, and some Fed speak.
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USDJPY – technical overviewThe major pair has been in the throes of a long overdue correction that was waiting to play out after a parabolic run to the topside to multi-year highs. At this stage, the correction could be getting close to having played out fully, with the market finally approaching critical previous resistance turned support in the 125.00 area.
USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe BOJ continues to signal a commitment to monetary policy accommodation, and the Yen remains under pressure as a consequence. BOJ Nakagawa was on the wires earlier this week saying the central bank needed to see the impact of the December policy tweak before making any fresh decision. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade and PMI reads, Eurozone PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, Canada building permits, US ISM non-manufacturing, and some Fed speak.
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AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base following the recent surge back above 0.6500. The recent weekly close back above previous support now turned resistance at 0.6682 strengthens the outlook for a bullish structural shift. Next key resistance comes in at 0.7284. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 0.6500.
AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has been underperforming on the back of the latest round of soft economic data highlighted by GDP, CPI misses, and the latest slumping building approvals reads which fell the most on record (-27.6% m/m). This has placed the conversation around an RBA pause back front and center. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade and PMI reads, Eurozone PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, Canada building permits, US ISM non-manufacturing, and some Fed speak.
USDCAD – technical overviewA recent surge back above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.
USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has been weak overall, but managed to hold up relatively well this week on account of some better bid commodities prices. But commodities have stalled into Friday and with risk sentiment in question, there could be another round of Canadian Dollar selling ahead. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade and PMI reads, Eurozone PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, Canada building permits, US ISM non-manufacturing, and some Fed speak.
NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with risk for the current recovery rally to stall out and form a lower top for the next major downside extension. A break back above 0.6577 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside.
NZDUSD – fundamental overviewEarlier this week, New Zealand terms of trade data came in solid. This followed a healthy Tuesday building permits read and so overall, the New Zealand Dollar has managed to hold up well as a consequence. At the same time, any signs of risk off flow in global markets could easily result in renewed Kiwi selling. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German trade and PMI reads, Eurozone PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, Canada building permits, US ISM non-manufacturing, and some Fed speak.
US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from extended readings off record highs. Look for rallies to be well capped in favor of lower tops and lower lows. A monthly close back above 4300 will be required at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Next major support comes in at 3885.
US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewWe’ve finally reached a point in the cycle where the Fed recognizes unanchored inflation expectations pose a greater downside risk than over-tightening. This is significant, as it means less investor friendly monetary policy that risks potential recession in the months ahead. Overall, we expect inflation to continue to be a problem in H1 2023 that results in downside pressure into rallies.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600 on a monthly close basis ahead of the next major upside extension. The recent break back above 1808 strengthens the bullish outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 2000.
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.