It has loomed over the GOP’s posture toward Donald Trump basically from the moment he entered politics: the threat of Trump going the third-party route if he doesn’t win its 2024 nomination — and spoiling the party’s chances.

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) effectively acknowledged that it’s a significant reason he says the party needs to stand by Trump. And the Republican National Committee is seeking to pin Trump down by forcing candidates to sign a party-loyalty pledge to participate in 2024 debates.

What if the GOP needn’t worry quite so much?

That’s what a new study suggests. But there are some significant caveats to that.

Read the rest of the story at The Washington Post

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