As part of a new series, each week we typically conduct a DCF on one of the companies in our screens. This week we thought we’d take a look at one of the stocks that is not currently in our screens, PepsiCo Inc (PEP).
Profile
PepsiCo is a global leader in snacks and beverages, owning well-known household brands including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Lay’s, Cheetos, and Doritos, among others. The company dominates the global savory snacks market and also ranks as the second-largest beverage provider in the world (behind Coca-Cola) with diversified exposure to carbonated soft drinks, or CSD, as well as water, sports, and energy drink offerings. Convenience foods account for approximately 55% of its total revenue, with beverages making up the rest. Pepsi owns the bulk of its manufacturing and distribution capacity in the US and overseas. International markets make up 40% of total sales and one third of operating profits.
Recent Performance
Over the past twelve months the share price is down 11.92%.
Source: Google Finance
Inputs
Forecasted Free Cash Flows (FCFs)
| Year | FCF (billions) | PV(billions) | | 2024 | 8.12 | 7.66 | | 2025 | 8.77 | 7.81 | | 2026 | 9.48 | 7.96 | | 2027 | 10.25 | 8.12 | | 2028 | 11.08 | 8.28 |
Terminal Value
Terminal Value = FCF * (1 + g) / (r – g) = 380.41 billion
Present Value of Terminal Value
PV of Terminal Value = Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)^5 = 284.27 billion
Present Value of Free Cash Flows
Present Value of FCFs = ∑ (FCF / (1 + r)^n) = 39.82 billion
Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value = Present Value of FCFs + Present Value of Terminal Value = 324.09 billion
Net Debt
Net Debt = Total Debt – Total Cash = 37.90 billion
Equity Value
Equity Value = Enterprise Value – Net Debt = 286.19 billion
Per-Share DCF Value
Per-Share DCF Value = Enterprise Value / Number of Shares Outstanding = $208.44
Conclusion
| DCF Value | Current Price | Margin of Safety | | --- | --- | --- | | $208.44 | $168.17 | 19.32% |
Based on the DCF valuation, the stock is undervalued. The DCF value of $208.44 share is higher than the current market price of $168.17. The Margin of Safety is 19.32%.