Unexpected Points: Recent Episodes
PFF
Unexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a uniquely analytical lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, PFF data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues affecting football.
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
Follow Cody Alexander on Twitter.
Subscribe to Cody’s substack: MatchQuarters
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
Find all of Josh’s work and Buy Low Model at Air Yards
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
Find Josh’s Buy Low model on his substack
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
You can watch the entire episode for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.
See the Week 1 NFL quarterback rankings based on Bayesian updating and adjusted EPA efficiency.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
Watch the whole podcast on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.
The latest Deshaun Watson restructure gives us an opportunity to talk about the emerging financial alchemy teams are employing, especially with quarterback contracts.
I talk through how the Watson deal and general restructures allow teams to roster slightly better teams overall, due to the compounding rise of cap cost and shifting burdens into the future.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
Find the full pod for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.
Read Mike’s QB Tiers article and follow him on twitter.
Josh Hermsmeyer joins the pod for the weekly livestream to talk:
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If Drake Maye should start, and generally what we learn from the preseason
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How the Cowboys played the last few drafts so poorly at WR and lost all leverage with CeeDee Lamb
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A bet on the kick-return rate for the 2024: Herms takes under 40%, Kevin takes the over
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Strong analysis from the NFL’s Michael Lopez and Tom Bliss on the minimal benefit of bye weeks during the regular season
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
Kevin digs into the advanced stats, worries and hopes for
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The Steelers QB “battle” between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields
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All the top QB picks in 2024
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Is Caleb Williams playing as well as his social media highlights?
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Jayden Daniels adjusted to a very different Kliff Kingsbury scheme
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Drake Maye showing a lot of promise with big throws
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Bo Nix continuing to lead the most efficiency offense of the preseason
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Projections guru Mike Leone of Establish the Run joins the pod to talk through
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The JJ McCarthy injury, what it means for his future and the more immediate implications for his teammates
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We also discuss Mike's process forming seasonal and weekly projections
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What are the most common mistakes making mental projections
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How often he uses intuition or his gut to …
Kevin discusses the (little) meaningful information from Week 1 of the NFL preseason Plus, he explain how to best decide on Week 1 starters with competing veterans of less caliber, or when a top-12 rookie is in the mix.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Kevin and Josh talk the potential trade of Brandon Aiyuk:
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Should the 49ers deal him?
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Which team is in best position to get him?
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Quantifying his value for contending and rebuilding teams?
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) of Stealing Signals joins me to talk:
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How the tried-and-true strategies of yesteryear are working out in fantasy football now.
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Whether we’ve become too fixated on the aggregate, stats-based analysis versus looking at talent
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A bunch of ADPs for players that don’t make sense
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Take questions on the YouTube LiveStream
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
What should we be thinking about the Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love deals? We discuss those contracts, plus the larger QB market and NFL team-building.
Find more research from Josh on his substack, including the DFS player’s favorite “Buy Low” Model.
You can watch the pod taping live and ask questions in the comments on YouTube every Tuesday at 1pm ET.
Gambler and all-around insightful commentator ClevTA (@ClevTA) joins the pod to talk:
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Process of building out offseason predictions
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Which teams we like more/less than the market
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Which teams project better/worse by our models than even we believe
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Player futures: MVP, etc
Check out ClevTA's website and FREE 2024 Preview
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
The first of (hopefully) many weekly livestreams with joining Kevin to discuss the latest analytical topics affecting the NFL, plus all the usual football talk from a smarter perspective.
Find more research from Josh on his substack, including the DFS player’s favorite “Buy Low” Model.
You can watch the pod taping live and ask questions in the comments on YouTube every Tuesday at 1pm ET.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
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Why is scoring down so much in recent seasons?
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What are we hearing that has actual signal
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The history of success for quarterbacks by draft position, and what it means for the 2023 and 2024 classes.
You can watch along here:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Find more research by subscribing to https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Sorry for a little delay getting this out on the pod. The recording didn’t go through the first time. Make sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel to watch the streams live and not miss anything.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the mocks joins me to talk all the numbers and strategies behind a wild round one of the draft
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
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Leave future Q&A in the post comments, or replay to this email.
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Apologies to podcast listeners this wasn’t up earlier. Substack was having a issues uploading the audio file. To avoid this in the future, you can subscribe on YouTube and even catch the live stream.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
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Watch on YouTube to participate in Q&A. Broadcasting at 10am Mon/Tues/Fri
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Check on the pod on YouTube:
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The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue joins the pod to talk her excellent 5-part narrative podcast series, The Playcallers.
The series has extensive reporting and interviews with Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur and Mike McDaniel. Plus, additional commentary from coaches who worked with this group, and the players they influenced.
You can listen to the series here.
You can watch this podcast on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Ben Taylor (@ElGee35) joins the pod to talk:
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His method of valuing players
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What the stats and eye test are missing
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Is height less important in the NBA?
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His GOAT list of the 40 most value players of all time
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Why Shaq and Kareem are underrated
Check out Ben’s highly successful YouTube Channel, his website and purchase his book.
Watch on YouTube:
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Seth Partnow (@SethPartnow) joins the pod to talk through his vast experience in multiple sports.
Topic covered include:
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Why he hates what the term “analytics” has come to mean
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His book “The Midrange Theory”
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Did Jokic and the Nuggets help dispel notions of great regular season teams not finishing in the playoffs
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How to build an effective front office to inte…
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) joins the pod to talk about a variety of topics, including the implications of the PGA-LIV merger, which players he's targeting in early best-ball drafts, and thoughts on the NBA finals and state of the league.
WATCH ON YOUTUBE:
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
(@rwohan) Writer, ESPN; author, NET GAINS: INSIDE THE BEAUTIFUL GAME’S ANALYTICS REVOLUTION.
Buy Net Gains here: Publisher, Amazon
View the full episode on YouTube:
Kevin talks through what matters in early offseason news, why the Celtics-Heat series is instructive and takes subscriber questions.
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Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) joins the pod to talk greatest college QBs, evaluating the 2023 and 2022 classes, and some soccer talk.
Watch on YouTube:
Watch on YouTube and subscriber there to be part of the next livestream. Leave comments on this post you want answered next week.
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Follow Ben on twitter (@benbbaldwin)
Ben and Kevin give their top- and bottom-5 front office after digesting the 2023 NFL draft and offseason.
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This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Watch on YouTube:
View on YouTube:
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) or Underdog Fantasy joins the pod to talk through all that went down in the NFL draft, including:
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How to properly account for the feedback from NFL teams in our projections
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What really dictates usage and early career starts for rookie quarterbacks
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Weighing landing spots versus macro environments
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Another YouTube livestream. Check out the audio or video, plus subscribe on YouTube to catch future episodes and have the ability to ask questions.
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You can follow Pat on twitter (@PatKerrane) and check out his work at Legendary Upside.
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This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) of Sharp Football Analysis and I talk:
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If there’s a reliable running back other than Bijan Robinson in the class
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Should Bijan go in the first round?
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How to think about a weaker and smaller wide receiver class
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Why Jalin Hyatt might have more NFL value than fantasy
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How waiting at tight end is the right decision for NFL teams
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Why he has …
Kevin details the Unexpected Points research from this week, plus: -
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How a couple analytically savvy analyst get it wrong with Lamar Jackson splits -
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Taking YouTube livestream questions
Watch on Youtube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Mike Renner of PFF (@PFF_Mike) joins me to talk:
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How his ranking process incorporates positional value
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Ranking lower-value positions, like running back and tight end, in a good class at each position.
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Why he has Bryce Young as the clear QB1.
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Should teams be thinking more about upside and Anthony Richardson at No. 1
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Standing out in a lot of draft noise withou…
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) of The Atheltic joins me to talk about the offseason happenings, including:
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Ownership meetings in Arizona -
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How to build relationships in the NFL as a reporter -
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His QB Tiers articles and what they say about Lamar Jackson -
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What everyone is getting wrong about the Jackson negotiations
View on YouTube:
Benjamin Robinson (@benj_robinson) of Grinding the Mocks joins me to talk:
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Methodology and mock draft weighting getting loser to the NFL draft
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Risers and fallers.
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Follow Eric on twitter (@ericeager_)
The full version of the pod is available with a subscription to unexpectedpoints.substack.com.
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We talk macro offseason strategies
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How much winning a Super Bowl affects offseason plans
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Targeting certain positions in free agency
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Elijah Moore trade and when it’s best to make moves
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Rodgers negotiations
Unexpected Points is a re…
Kevin’s takes on the points added for all the major deal, best positions to target, and why the Bears added the most value.
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Kevin reacts to the Bears trading away the No. 1 pick to the Panthers, and why DJ Moore is the key to the deal.
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PFF’s Brad Spielberger (@PFF_Brad) joins the pod to talk:
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QB Contracts
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How teams should approach free agency
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Over/undervalued players by position in free agency
Check out Brad’s work at PFF, including the free agency rankings with grades and his projected contract amounts.
Support the pod here
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Watch on YouTube:
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
This is the first paid subscriber interview pod. The first half of the interview will go to all listeners, and the full episode will be available for free on The Unexpected Points YouTube channel (please subscribe).
Jason Fitzgerald, one of my favorite analysts, joins the pod to talk offseason strategy, targeting different positions in free agency and t…
Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) joins me to talk about:
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Super Bowl game management decisions
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How the Chiefs and Eagles should approach the offseason
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Were we too low on the Chiefs front office?
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Plus, Seahawks talk and what to do with Geno
Watch on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
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Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
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Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
You can watch the episode on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel. Plus, subscribe and leave questions for future Q&A’s.
For all of the research I discuss on the pod, get a paid subscription to the Unexpected Points substack.
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) of Betting Pros joins me to talk:
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The rules you need to follow when thinking about Super Bowl prop betting
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Some of his favorites bets for this matchup
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
View on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
Watch the entire episode for free on YouTube. Please subscribe to the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.
Benjamin Robinson (@benj_robinson) of Grinding the Mocks joins me to talk:
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How he came up with the idea of collecting and analyzing mock draft data
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What traits we’re looking for in strong draft analysts, the draft “Super Forecasters”
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Applications for his vast set of mock draft data
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
View on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Sam Schwartzstein (@schwartzsteins) Amazon Prime TNF broadcast joins me to talk:
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His lessons from the first season of streaming broadcasting at Amazon, including the Prime Vision broadcast he helped design
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How the Eagles and Chiefs match up in the Super Bowl, what insights we can take from two different ways of teambuilding
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Why teams should never feel satisfied at premium positions
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What the Bengals and 49ers need to do to stay competitive this offseason
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
View on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
For the full episode, get a paid subscription
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Watch on YouTube:
Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) of FiveThirtyEight joins me to discuss:
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What makes a great analytical franchise, why the Eagles are lapping the field
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The Nathaniel Hackett hire
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What the Giants and Ravens should do at QB
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Revisit bold offseason predictions
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Whether Brock Purdy can sustain his strong efficiency
View on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins me to discuss how the six playoff losers should approach the offseason:
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Should the Vikings look at the fundamentals and choose mini-rebuild?
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Are the Bucs done in their current form?
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Why the Seahawks have to look at rookie quarterbacks drafting in the top-5
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Have the Chargers missed the rookie-contract window for Justin Herbert?
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Lamar Jackson done in Baltimore?
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The Dolphins need to go all-in on 2023
View on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
I talk through all that happened this week, including:
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Reactions to my Bears No. 1 pick article and how to hire coaches
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All-Pro Voting, why the new system of rank ordering is better
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And paid subscriber Q&A:
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Lamar Jackson: What will happen this offseason?
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Ranking the coaching vacancies
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How much of QB development is intrinsic?
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How should the Jets play going after Derek Carr?
Please upgrade to a paid sub (if you don’t have one) to support my work and hear the entire episode.
If you can’t afford a paid sub right now, reply to this email and I’ll comp you a 6-month, no-questions-asked sub. Appreciate all who take their valuable time and spend it engaging with my work.
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Tej Seth and Arjun Menon join the pod to talk about their podcast, Take the Points, plus:
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What the Bears should do with the No. 1 pick
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Preview the playoffs
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Their Big Data Bowl research
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How to break into sports analytics
View on YouTube:
Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!
Listen on Spotify:
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
View on YouTube:
Ted Knutson, CEO and founder of StatsBomb, joins me to talk about his journey through being a professional bettor, bookmaker and creating innovative data and insights for professional soccer and American football.
View the interview on YouTube
Follow Ted on Twitter: @mixedknuts
Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts, including:
-
Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews
-
Weekly updated Power Ratings
-
Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency
-
Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputs
Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___
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This week Ed Feng of the The Power Rank joins me to talk about the process of ranking teams and what it means for Week 16. We also talk a little soccer in the wake of the World Cup.
You can find Ed on twitter, or his great site for betting info and predictions.
If watching on YouTube is your thing.
Subscribe to my substack for daily written content and twice a week podcasts.
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For this week’s solo wrap-up pod, I discuss the significance of Mike Leach, and how his thoughtful and intentional way of understanding the game was analytics without numbers.
Plus, I introduce the first selection in what will hopefully be an ongoing thing: The Unexpected Points Book Club. We’re going to start with The Perfect Pass by S.C. Gwynne. It’s a fantastic story of the Air Raid’s founding and ascendance, with Hal Mumme and Mike Leach prominently featured. Lots of lessons from this book to apply to any endeavor, especially when looking to challenge the establishment order.
I lastly have some Q&A from the livestream and detail this weeks research on Joe Burrow’s declining sack rate and Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE).
Leave comments about “The Perfect Pass” here if you’ve already read the book, or are now motivated to start, and I’ll discuss them in the next episode. I’m planning on reviewing the first half of the book (Chapters 1-10) in next Friday’s pod.
Take care.
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Chase Stuart wrote a daily blog at Football Perspective for a decade, and before that helped craft early analytical measures like ANY/A at Pro Football Reference. Chase brings a longer-term perspective to the NFL and how the league has changed over the past couple decades.
Chase joins Kevin to discuss his history, what the current discourse is missing, and which teams he believes are better or worse than their records. Plus, talk on his beloved Jets.
Follow Chase on twitter.
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I’m back on the podcasting streets. You can watch this replay on YouTube to see the video clips of the Mahomes interview, or perhaps my animated talking.
I discuss my takes and research (research in links):
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The injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and what it means for the 49ers.
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Baker’s magical evening, McDaniels blowing it and if McVay can turn him around.
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Jon Robinson’s firing and how billion-dollar NFL franchises aren’t run like stable businesses.
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YouTube Live Watchers Q&A: Patriots playoff chances? Is Justin Field legit? What should the Jets do at QB?
You support the pod and my research by subscribing to the Unexpected Points Substack.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/
The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.
Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully).
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com
For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.
Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12.
Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama.
Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11.
Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent.
Kevin goes through the numbers and implications of the Panthers-Falcons game, plus why Jeff Saturday is skeptical of analytics and the best bets for the weekend by the numbers.
Kevin reviews the MNF matchup and goes in-depth on the decision to fire Frank Reich and replace him with Jeff Saturday.
Kevin goes over a surprisingly close TNF contest and his favorite recreational bets for Sunday.
Former PFFer Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins Kevin to talk about the marco lesson of the deadline and the specific deals that went down this week.
Kevin talks through the Ravens TNF victory and analyzes the Toney, Quinn and Robinson trades.
Today, Kevin is re-joined by Prime Video TNF analytics guru, former NFL offensive lineman Sam Schwartzstein to discuss solutions for fixing some NFL offenses, and Prime Video analytics.
Kevin recaps Thursday Night Football between the Cardinals & Saints, and breaks down the CMC trade.
Kevin talks through the key numbers, grades and takeaways from MNF, plus a look at how to discuss analytics in a better way that we saw in the pre-game show.
Kevin discusses the slog that was TNF, plus the stories of the week and some bets he likes for the rest of Week 6.
00:00 Intro
01:00 Analytics discourse taking over
04:37 Bears-Commanders review
05:47 Lack of scoring this season
11:48 4th down decisions
13:48 Justin Fields talk
22:12 Dan Synder article
25:50 Carson Wentz catching strays
32:00 Week 6 Best Bets
Kevin goes through the Sunday slate of games giving all the adjusted scores and important details on what drove the outcomes.
Kevin reviews the MNF matchup with all the advanced stats and adjusted scores, plus a preview of a highly anticipated Bengals-Dolphins game on TNF.
Kevin goes through the Week 3 Sunday slate of games with all the advanced stats, adjusted scores and big-picture takeaways.
Kevin goes through all the advanced stats and grades for Browns-Steelers, plus a few bets he likes for this Sunday's action.
Kevin goes through all the grading and advanced stats for the two MNF games and what it means for the teams going forward.
Kevin goes through every Sunday game, gives his predictive adjusted scores and points out the most important stats and data to forecast what will happen the rest of the season.
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(00:00) Intro
(01:01) Adjusted scores controversy
(03:12) Are comebacks happening more often?
(05:34) Saints-Bucs
(13:56) Jaguars-Colts
(19:30) Lions-Commanders
(23:47) Why you go for 2 down 8
(28:02) Ravens-Dolphins
(35:40) Browns-Jets
(41:22) Giants-Panthers
(47:38) Patriots-Steelers
(53:36) Rams-Falcons
(58:04) 49ers-Seahawks
(1:04:28) Cowboys-Bengals
(1:10:25) Raiders-Cardinals
(1:12:30) Broncos-Texans
(1:16:30) Packers-Bears
Kevin goes over all the relevant numbers and grades from the matchup of the Chiefs and Chargers.
Kevin goes through the Week 1 slate with all the advanced stats and proprietary numbers you need to know.
Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm.
Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension
Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup.
Kevin goes through every game from the final preseason week, plus discusses the biggest stories around the NFL.
Kevin reviews are the relevant stats from the second week of the NFL preseason.
00:00 Intro
01:25 Life in the Silicon Valley
03:27 Preseason Week 2 Review Setup
04:15 Does the preseason matter
08:18 Young quarterback performances: Pickett, Willis, Skylar Thompson, etc
20:28 Why Pickett should start Week 1
23:45 Running back review
30:22 Wide receiver review
39:25 Tight end review
Kevin talks with professional bettor and BetStamp co-founder Rob Pizzola about his business endeavors and takes on teams that are under- and overvalued in 2022.
Kevin goes through what matter from Week 1 of the preseason, especially in terms of depth charts and young QB play.
Kevin and Josh give their boldest, realistic predictions for the 2022 NFL season. Plus, a few of Hard Knock Ep 1 and the Dan Campbell experience.
Kevin goes through the lookahead betting lines to quantitatively rank NFL teams and find value where the market currently doesn't see it. Plus, talk about Kareem Hunt's contract and what it says about the player empowerment era in the NFL.
Kevin details why the Dolphins fine was significant and what to pay attention in training camp this week and beyond.
Kevin discusses the why of the Watson decision whether it will be appealed and what it means for the Browns' season. Plus, separating the signal and noise in training camp news.
Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 joins Kevin to opine on the coaches/executive quarterback rankings released in a recent article and go pick-by-pick giving their own rankings and rationales, plus what a strict analytical model predicts for the 2022 season.
Kevin breaks down the details of the Kyler Murray contract and how good he's been so far in his career and what to expect going forward. Plus, a look at the best PFF research that came out this offseason.
Kevin counts down the final five greatest statistical QBs of all time.
00:00 Episode Intro/Preview 02:00 #10-#6 Recap 09:00 #5: Drew Brees 18:55 #4: Dan Marino 27:48 #3 Otto Graham 36:57 #2 Peyton Manning 57:51 #1 Tom Brady
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Kevin continues to count down the best statistical QBs in NFL history. Plus, some analysis of the salary tag.
Kevin goes further into the controversy around Lamar Jackson not making the top-10 quarterbacks in a recent NFL poll. Plus, he continues to count down the greatest statistical quarterbacks of all time, this episode going through 20-11.
Kevin explains why the Baker trade is good and bad for the Panthers, what ESPN QB rankings say about recency bias, and continues to count down the greatest statistical QBs of all time.
Kevin continues to count down the statistical GOAT quarterbacks according to passing and rushing value added through their careers.
Kevin breaks down the latest tape vs analytics war on social media, which he helped start by posting an interview with Titans GM Jon Robinson where he sounded skeptical of analytics value. Plus, answering listener questions.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 Pre-roll, Intro music
01:07 Details on the pod, QB GOAT Preview
02:37 Jon Robinson's misguided view on analytics
12:30 Kwesi Adofo-Mensa's holistic view on analytics
17:51 Is Robinson a great GM?
27:50 Mailbag
Kevin counts down the best statistical resumes for quarterbacks in NFL history, starting with numbers 50 through 41.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 Pre-roll
00:47 Intro Music
01:07 Explanation of QB GOAT Methodology
09:06 Honorable mentions outside the top-50
12:40 No. 50: Billy Kilmer
13:34 No. 49: Bobby Layne
17:23 No. 48: Randall Cunningham
20:35 No. 47: Daunte Culpepper
23:03 No. 46: Trent Green
27:10 No. 45: Steve McNair
31:47 No. 44: Bert Jones
33:50 No. 43: Joe Theismann
37:37 No. 42: John Hadl
39:15 No. 41: Bob Griese
Kevin looks over the greatest tight end career to decide if Rob Gronkowski is the greatest of them all. Plus, words of wisdom from Mike Tomlin and an update on a potential indefinite suspension for Deshaun Watson.
Kevin talks with the NFL's director for data analytics about his work to improve the league's quality pf play, officiating, hiring practices and injury prevention.
Kevin goes through recent PFF research of the effect of perfect coverage, gives the pluses and minuses of different QB stats and talks about the conflicts of politics on social media for sports reporters.
Kevin talks to Adam Beard, Cubs Director of High Performance, about the lessons learned with his time in a similar role with the Browns and how sports science has impacted the NFL.
Kevin discusses the news from the previous week, with a focus on what the mainstream narratives might be missing.
Kevin and Josh give their best ideals for the NFL that media and football guys would consider cancellable.
Carnegie Mellon professor and creator of nflscrapR talks with Kevin about the trend in NFL analytics, what he's learned working with tracking data and where analysis goes wrong.
Kevin discusses the David Njoku extension in the larger context of the Browns going for it in 2022, plus some stats being misused and mailbag answers.
Kevin talks with Sean Clement, former R&D analyst for multiple NFL franchises, about the trends in the NFL communicating with coaches and where the game is going.
In the first annual Unexpected Points Haters Ball, Kevin hates on a few things that have come across his radar in the last several weeks.
Kevin goes through the Week 1 betting lines, how the market has tiered NFL teams and other news from the week.
Kevin goes through the best bets and longshots for NFL 2022 awards and answers listener questions.
Ben Baldwin of the Athletic joins Kevin to talk through their front office rankings now the the 2022 NFL draft and free agency offseason is mostly complete.
Kevin goes through his post-draft models looking at the likelihood of NFL success for 2022 WRs and RBs.
Kevin breaks down the winner and losers of a trade-filled first round.
0:01 Intro
6:22 AJ Brown Traded to the Eagles
14:52 Hollywood Brown Traded to Cardinals
18:20 Only Kenny Pickett Drafted in Round 1
22:19 WR Drafted in Round 1
25:59 Steals & Reaches in Round 1
Kevin discusses movements in the NFL draft prop markets. Plus, why the QB evaluators are good at what they do, not what they haven't studied. Plus mailbag.
Matt Freedman joins Kevin to discuss betting NFL draft props and the Deebo Samuel trade request news.
Kevin looks at recent player extensions and what they mean for the broader NFL landscape.
Kevin is joined by Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis to discuss the 2022 wide receiver class.
Kevin discusses the Eagles-Saints trade and the best strategy for teams drafting early in the 2022 NFL draft
Jim Sannes of FanDuel and numberFire joins the pod to talk about his quarterback prospect model and what it says about the 2022 class.
Kevin talks about the shifting dynamics in the wide receiver trade market and which teams added the most value at the right prices in free agency.
Sam Schwartzstein joins the pod to talk about his time building the rules at the XFL, what the NFL could do to improve its rules and what he thinks about the new overtime rules for the playoffs.
Kevin goes through what we heard from Andrew Berry, Deshaun Watson and the Browns owners in their first public appearances after the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson.
Kevin goes through the winners and loser of the Tyreek Hill trade, and looks back at the Chiefs strategy the last few season building around Patrick Mahomes.
Kevin goes through all the numbers for the practical costs and Super Bowl probability impacts of the big NFL trades.
Kevin talks through the main options for Watson and how the Falcons and Browns will deal with their QB situations going forward. Plus, rules for understanding free agency and what it all means for your favorite team.
Kevin talks about the ramifications of Brady's return, the Vikings taking the right path with Cousins and why he's particularly troubled by the discourse around Deshaun Watson.
Kevin gives his data-based takes on the Russell Wilson trade and why it works for both teams.
Kevin goes through the results of his NFL Combine models for every offensive and defensive position.
Kevin goes through his combine research on the measurements and drills that matter most for each position, plus why his modeling points to Treylon Burks and Breece Hall as the best prospects at their respective positions.
Kevin discusses the difference in good and bad answers on running the ball from new coaches and whether Aaron Rodgers is too conservative in the playoffs.
Kevin talks with ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques about the Mike McDaniel hire, Tua's ceiling and a potential big-spending offseason for the Miami Dolphins.
Kevin reviews the numbers behind the Super Bowl and looks ahead at the implications for this offseason and next year.
Kevin discusses the numbers behind the Super Bowl matchup and how confident he is that the different coaching hires will be successful.
Kevin discusses if the NFL's can fix the broken hiring process for minority coaches, plus a comparison of Tom Brady to GOATs of other sports, and why his career arc is so different.
Ben Brown joins Kevin to break down all the numbers and narratives behind the Conference Championships.
PFF's Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to talk through all the GM and coaching hires, and what to expect in the coming week.
Ben Baldwin joins kevin to discuss the Seahawks future and the divisional round matchups.
Kevin and Ben break down the two paths the Vikings can take this offseason, plus previews of the Wild Card round.
Kevin and Ben talk through the most impactful games from Week 18 and their playoff implications.
Kevin goes through an article from the Ringer on NFL higher practices, highlights stat wars, and builds a plan for the Browns to navigate the offseason.
Kevin and Ben break down the week of NFL action with all the numbers behind the final scores.
Kevin goes through market-based and his own NFL power rankings, highlighting the biggest differences in public perception and reality. Plus, he gives his Week 17 best bets.
Kevin and Ben Brown go through the Week 16 slate of games with the biggest takeaways for futures and team strength.
Kevin review TNF 49ers-Titans game, goes through his analysis on points added for non-QBs and gives some best bets for the weekend.
Kevin breaks down the TNF matchup, who the Jags should hire as head coach and Week 15 best bets.
Kevin is joined by PFF's Ben Brown to talk through all the Week 14 action from an analytical perspective.
Kevin reviews Vikings-Steelers, discusses the Belichick-McDermott discourse and gives a few best bets for this Sunday.
Kevin reviews the advanced stats from TNF, discusses a groundbreaking PFF study and gives his best bets for Week 13.
Kevin reviews Lions-Bear, Raiders-Cowboys and Saints-Bills. Plus, a few best bets for Sunday.
Kevin goes through the adjusted scores and advanced stats for the entire Week 11 slate.
Kevin assesses the Patriots title chances, rants about the accurate presentation of evidence and has a few best bets for the Week 1 slate.
Kevin reviews releasing Odell Beckham Jr., touches on the Aaron Rodgers, plus reviews of the Week 9 action and his favorite bets.
Kevin reviews all the Week 8 NFL action using his adjusted scores, advanced stats and PFF grades.
Kevin reviews the thrilling Packers victory where the Cardinals were probably the better team, plus a few best bets from the Falcons-Panthers, Bills-Dolphins and Saints-Bucs games.
Kevin reviews Week 7 and his adjusted scores, providing insights into teams that were better or worse than many think. Plus, he puts a few fan bases on notice for excuse making and getting ahead of themselves.
Kevin goes through the emergence of running-backs-don't-matter stud D'Ernest Johnson, the great decision-making of Kevin Stefanski and which games he's betting this Sunday. Plus, a look at a recent interview with Bob Voulgaris and what it shows about the mis-incentives in sports franchises.
Kevin walks through the Week 6 results, why Derrick Henry is valuable but not the MVP, if Belichick has lost his mojo, and why the Cardinals are not quite the best team in the NFL just yet.
Kevin goes through all the numbers of a bad beat TNF contest between the Bucs and Eagles, plus his best bets for the rest of the Week 6 slate.
Kevin review the Week 5 results, breaks down his game grades and goes over a successful week of best bets.
Kevin breaks down the Thursday night matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, plus his favorite bets for the weekend and a detailed preview of each game.
Kevin reviews the Jaguars tough loss to the Bengal on TNF, plus he previews the entire Week 4 slate, which includes a handful of games with betting value.
Kevin goes through all the relevant advanced stats and grades from the Week 3 matchups.
Kevin breaks down the TNF performances and why Sam Darnold is thriving in Joe Brady's system, plus he goes through the most important stats and trends for every Week 2 matchup.
Kevin goes through all the Week 2 action from an analytical lens, digs into why Patrick Mahomes has a relatively poor PFF grade, and puts into context where each team's quarterback stands among the rest of the league.
Kevin details why some of the grades from the TNF matchup may not match consensus perception and goes through each remaining Week 2 game with a few stats and trends to watch.
Kevin and Ryan Paganetti talk through the details of Chiefs vs Browns, including how the Browns played better than their numbers, and Kevin Stefanski had perfect decision-making. Plus, why the Patriots are unvalued after a Week 1 loss in a game where they outplayed the Dolphins.
Kevin looks deep into the advanced stats to show that the Bucs were more than two points better than the Cowboys, plus one thing to watch for every team playing this weekend.
Former coach and game management specialist Ryan Paganetti joins Kevin to discuss what they're looking for when they watch games and study the numbers, they break down TNF Buccaneers-Cowboys, or the "Does Defense Matter" Bowl, and Ryan presents a paradigm-shifting idea on how teams can block 30-50% of opponents' field-goal attempts with little additional investment.
Kevin provides insight on Mac Jones getting the Week 1 start while making the case it won't take long for Justin Fields, Urban Meyer's farcical QB competition leads to cancellation, a review of smart game management during the last week of the preseason, and players you need to target in every round of fantasy football drafts.
Kevin talks to JJ Zachariason, editor-in-chief at FanDuel, about his 15 bold predictions, including Trey Lance being a top-5 quarterback, Najee Harris being a top-8 running back and DeVonta Smith leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy.
Kevin talks with former game mangement coach Ryan Paganetti about his time working with Chip Kelly and Doug Pederson, he takes us inside the booth and behind the scenes on how coaches view analytics, plus we discuss a few great stories, including Doug Pederson wanting to be a little too aggressive in the Super Bowl.
Kevin discusses his new research that shows strong value for the top NFL runners, but still leaves questions about paying them big money. Plus, how the Josh Allen extension shifts the extension market for Baker and Lamar, and a handful of WRs you need in every fantasy draft.
(0:00-16:02) Wentz injury/Impact on the Colts moving forward and potential new faces at QB (16:03-25:04) Nick Chubb’s New contact and the Significance it has on the Browns salary cap (25:05-33:43) “Stick to Sports” Kevin discusses his thoughts on Simone Biles decision to not compete in Olympics (33:43-43:09) New Segment, “When keeping real goes Wrong" Does the salary cap add parody to the NFL?
(43:10-53:45) Kevin breaks down PFF’s Expected Fantasy Point Tool and how you can use it in your analysis ahead of fantasy drafts
Kevin talks through the Aaron Rodgers agreement and what it means for Davante Adams, and how the NFLPA has failed to protect players from COVID-related financial losses. Plus, we talk with Keevin Meers of Zelus Analytics about how teams should focus more on macro strategy, and what the public doesn't know about analysis from the inside on an NFL franchise.
Kevin talk through the Aaron Rodgers drama and why passing up a big contract isn't that important, how to view Darrell Henderson after the Cam Akers injury, why teams should be proactive extending QBs, and why empathy makes us bad fans and decision-makers.
(4:55) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s PFF grades leading up to his trade to the Rams (8:00) Breaking down Stafford’s 2020 Ranking (10th) to 2021 (6th) (10:20) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s lack of production despite having top tier receivers (11:40) Why Lamar Jackson should be ranked higher than Stafford headed into 2021 (13:17) Matt Stafford: Overrated?Lamar Jackson: Underrated? (14:51) Is it possible to be underrated if everyone thinks you are underrated? (18:06) Looking into the media/fans determining who is overrated/underrated/right on point (19:59) Breaking down Fantasy Running backs for your upcoming draft (20:42) Why 2nd/3rd year running backs should be your main focus when drafting for Fantasy
(23:25) Kevin highlights RBs to look out for in 2021: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary (26:45) Regret Aversion: Kevin talks about Kyle Shannahan’s biggest regret as a play caller, looks into analytics of offensive play calling/decision making (40:13) Kevin looks into mitigating regret aversion as a decision maker and the sacrifices that need to be made
The Process (2:30) Browns new front office (4:45) Turning over likelihood of success to luck (8:00) Winning Championships (9:50) Letting players go (11:50) Picking the right players (13:00) Hue Jackson discussion (16:00) Talks about interview with Paul DePodesta (20:00) Browns progress season to season (23:30) Browns letting players go (27:00) NFL ready college QBs (30:00) How trade effects wins (34:00) Unlucky losses (37:00) Bringing in talent (40:00) Dorsey clearing house (44:00) Were the 2017 draft picks mistakes (47:30)What would old front office have down differently (52:00) What the Browns did wrong (55:30)
What has Belichick been up to? (2:10) Patriots fourth down rate (9:00) Patriots trade back habits (13:30) Are the Patriots wasting draft picks (15:00) Feedback loops (28:30) How has Belichick been so good at exploiting the Feedback Loop (31:00 - 35:00) Patriots lack of comp picks (39:30) Could Belichick be on the hot seat if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out (41:30)
Kevin reviews his final QB rankings, looks at rookie QB data to see when they should start, and find that teams are getting smarter on situational aggressiveness.
David Giuliani, the Browns director and strategy and research, joins Kevin to talk about how the league is becoming more focused on data, how to best communicate with coaches and other decision-makers, and how recruiting has changed with so much good analysis in the public sphere.
Kevin quantifies the win-win nature of the Julio Jones trade to the Titans, cancels a RB-truther beat reporter, ranks the NFL quarterbacks according to analytical modeling, and challenges the notion that hard work and effort are fundamentally different from other athletic talents.
Kevin talks about the week's news, ranks the best and worst front office in the NFL, and talks about how we can apply insight from a new book on noise in expert opinions to the NFL.
Kevin breaks down the Julio Jones trade situation from a the perspective of a front office in a two-year cap crunch, tracks year-over-year changes in MVP odds that point to Russell Wilson as a big-time value, and introduces a new "Stick to Sports" segment focusing this week on the biases of hundreds of Jeopardy contestants.
Kevin tries to figure out if Urban Meyer is a donkey, cancels Dan Campbell after the head coach fails Analytics 101, and tells you why Micah Parsons is a value for Defensive Rookie of the Year, despite having the shortest odds.
Kevin discussed why we overestimate the leverage NFL players have to force trades, why draft reaches and a thing but steals aren't, and the value betting on Najee Harris for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Kevin goes solo talking through every teams drafts, with a focus on positional value, trading down and why more humility is needed in draft evaluation. Plus, he talks about the dangers of the GM as super scout.
Matthew Freedman of the Action Network parses what's important to pay attention to predicting the NFL draft and which draft props have the highest expected returns.
Benjamin Solak of the Draft Networks joins the pod to talk through his QB evaluation process, what some are missing and why Justin Fields should be the QB2 of the 2021 class.
JJ Zachariason of numberFire joins the pod to rank the 2021 rookie wide receiver class and explain why he's higher on Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall than the consensus.
Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis returns to talk about the Sam Darnold trade and ramifications for the Panthers and rookie quarterback rankings, plus he goes through his rookie running back rankings in advance of the 2021 NFL draft.
PFF cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins the pod to wrap up the first week of free agency, highlighting the best and worst moves and what it all means going forward.
Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis joins the show to talk through a busy couple days in free agency, how the various moves affect the fantasy landscape and general rules for assessing the impact of players switching scenery.
RJ Ochoa, editor-in-chief of Blogging The Boys, joins the pod to talk the new Dak Prescott deal, why the Cowboys can still compete with a big QB contract and which team he fears most in the NFC East.
Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic joins the show to discuss on the J.J. Watt acquisition shifts the balance of power in the NFC West, plus his reporting on Russ Wilson's dissatisfaction with the Seahawks and what it means for their future together.
Stephen Holder of The Athletic joins the show to discuss the Carson Wentz trade, whether it was the right move for the Colts, and how Chris Ballard and Frank Reich can build around their new quarterback to make a postseason run.
Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports and creator of the Reception Perception wide receiver rating system join the show to go through the vaunted 2021 free agency class, which receivers teams should prioritize, and why Curtis Samuel could break out in new surroundings.
PFF's salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to discuss the Chiefs' mistakes in the Super Bowl and look across the landscape of QB-needy teams to figure out who should land where.
Matt Freedman of The Action Network joins Kevin to dissect the Matthew Stafford trade, give his rationale for the Chiefs covering and talk through his favorite prop bets for Super Bowl Sunday.
Kaelen Jones of the Ringer NFL joins Kevin to go over the bad decisions from Conference Championship Sunday, why Aaron Rodgers' legacy took a huge hit, and if Patrick Mahomes is the Michael Jordan of the NFL. Plus, they explore how much value Matthew Stafford provides teams needing a QB to get over the hump.
Aaron Reiss of The Athletic joins the show to talk Deshaun Watson trade discussions, the Texans' coaching candidates, if Jared Goff is worth top QB money, and previews of the conference championships.
Kevin Cole is joined by Benjamin Solak, Senior CFB Writer from The Draft Network to talk about the loss of Doug Pederson, how it will affect the Eagles and much more.
Kevin Cole is joined by FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’s Josh Hermsmeyer again to talk about the Eagles tanking situation, GM's and head coaches across the NFL and much more in this weeks episode of Unexpected Points.
Kevin Cole is joined by Seth Keysor, Chiefs Analyst for The Athletic to talk about just how good Patrick Mahomes is, the likelihood of super bowl victory and everything else Chiefs.
Kevin Cole is joined by Jason Fitzgerald, Founder of Over the Cap to talk the Jets, player contracts, draft capital and more.
Kevin Cole is joined by Arif Hasan, Beat writer for the Vikings to talk about, Their loss to the bucs and the impact from that on their playoff chances, and more.
Kevin Cole is joined by Sheil Kapadia, senior NFL writer to talk Eagles, Seahawks, Hurts replacing Carson Wentz, what Jeffrey Lurie thinks & much more.
Kevin Cole is joined by Marcel Louis-Jacques to take a deep dive into the Buffalo Bills to discuss the coaching situation and the front office.
PFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run Director of Analytics Michael Leone to talk DFS analysis.
PFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run co-founder Evan Silva to draft teams and find their super bowl winner.
Film Analyst & Football Writer Jake Burns joins Kevin to talk film breakdown, the state of the Cleveland Browns, taking a broader look at the QB position and where Baker Mayfield fits in.
Professional bettor Rob Pizzola talks through his process, why the Seahawks and Saints are undervalued and his thoughts on rest of the Week 9 slate.
Ben Baldwin of The Athletic joins Kevin to talk advanced QB stats, Wilson vs Mahomes and why coaching aggressiveness is on the rise.
Michael Lopez, the NFL's Director of Football Data and Analytics joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss his background and how he got into football. Also on this episode, Kevin and Michael discuss how the NFL uses advanced data and analytics in everything from identifying current trends, to how NFL coaches and organizations use data to impact their decisions on and off the field.
Matthew Freedman of FantasyLabs joins PFF"s Kevin Cole to discuss the validity of prop bets in today's market. Kevin and Matthew also discuss NFL props in the 2020 season and outline some situations where prop bets may be favorable and some situations where prop bets may not be nearly as lucrative.
ESPN NFL Analyst Mina Kimes joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss all the latest NFL news including Dwayne Haskins' benching and Bill O'Brien's ousting in Houston (3:25). Also on this episode, Mina and Kevin hand out some awards a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season (24:21).
PFF's Kevin Cole sits down with FiveThirtyEight and Establish the Run's Josh Hermsmeyer to talk Josh's famous Air Yards model (2:30) and statistical trends through 3 weeks of the NFL season (11:30). Kev and Josh also discuss some of their favorite under the radar Week 4 NFL fantasy football plays (18:15) and which teams could represent the AFC and NFC in Super Bowl LV (28:23).
PFF's Kevin Cole sits down with Rufus Peabody. Kev and Rufus talk all things gambling including Rufus' background (01:58) and what sort of data points go into the making of the Massey-Peabody's sports betting models (07:26). Also on this episode, Kev and Rufus preview Week 3 of NFL action (25:01).
PFF's Kevin Cole welcomes ESPN's Seth Walder to discuss the NFL's opening weekend and which current narratives he's buying or selling after one week of action (2:04). Kevin and Seth also discuss the methodology behind Seth's now infamous Aaron Donald take (56:02).
PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes Establish the Run's, Adam Levitan, to talk DFS and the origins of Establish the Run (01:41). Also on this episode, Kev and Adam discuss DFS strategy (06:04), what to expect early on in the 2020 NFL season from a DFS standpoint (25:54).
PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes USA Today's, Steven Ruiz. Kev and Steve discuss Steven's latest work (01:38) and dive into the age old question: coverage vs. pass rush (09:34)? Kev and Steve also discuss Steven's QB rankings (24:15) and much more on episode 2 of Unexpected Points.
On the first ever episode of Unexpected Points, PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole sits down with FanDuel and numberFire's, JJ Zachariason. Kev and JJ discuss JJ's 15 bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy season, including Cam Newton's potential finish as a top-5 fantasy QB (14:59), a monster season for Adam Thielen (24:50), and a battle in the AFC North between James Conner and Nick Chubb (41:14).