FT Hard Currency: Recent Episodes
Financial Times
Financial Times foreign exchange correspondent Roger Blitz talks to experts on the currencies market about the week ahead, looking at the global political and economic factors driving the world’s largest market.
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The US currency's ascent in 2018 has surprised many analysts and investors. The reflation trade that followed the election of Donald Trump was not expected to last. Stephen Gallo of the Bank of Montreal tells Michael Hunter why the rally has endured, and outlines the wider factors setting the pace for the euro, emerging market currencies and the pound.
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A Federal Reserve rate rise had little impact on the dollar while ECB president Mario Draghi drove the euro higher with optimistic comments on eurozone wages and inflation. But is that enough for a sustained market push to buy euros and sell dollars? Jeremy Thomson-Cook of World First gives his thoughts to Roger Blitz and looks at the the effect of growing trade tensions on emerging market currencies
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Trade tensions are hotting up, Brexit talks are souring and the Federal Reserve is gearing up for another rate hike, yet currencies in the firing line, from emerging markets to sterling, seem unperturbed. Jane Foley of Rabobank tells Roger Blitz why currency moves are not reverting to type
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Inflation strength in Europe and the the UK and weakness in the US were important factors in forex as central banks took centre stage, while Turkey's big interest rate rise helped stabilise emerging markets. Kamal Sharma of BofA Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz what that means for the dollar, the euro and the pound, and whether EM currencies are out of the woods
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A week dominated by falls in emerging market currencies, notably the South African rand, is triggering another bout of concern that the problems that afflicted the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira this year are becoming contagious. Kit Juckes of Société Générale discusses with Roger Blitz the reasons why EM are again under pressure and what it would take for their currencies to gain some respite
The British pound, Argentina's peso and Turkey's lira: all of them in the news and all getting pushed around (albeit in different directions) by politics. Katie Martin talks to Eoin Murray, head of investment at Hermes, about what the moves are telling us and what these shocks tell us about global market conditions.
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The dollar came under pressure on two fronts this week - Donald Trump's impeachment risk and the president's disparaging remarks about the Federal Reserve for raising US interest rates. But it is the Fed's own views, with a tilt to the dovish side, that should see the dollar lose the momentum of recent months, Société Générale's Alvin Tan tells Roger Blitz. That should mean renewed strength for the euro and yen, but not necessarily for emerging market currencies.
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Turkey's troubled lira, worries about emerging market currencies and the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the rouble and renminbi have put foreign exchange at the heart of the financial market's traditional August anxiety. Derek Halpenny of MUFG discusses with Roger Blitz the longer term implications of the weeks of summer turmoil, and offers a note of caution on the rising dollar
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Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this week injected renewed vigour into the dollar, while weak data and Brexit woes undermined the pound. David Bloom of HSBC tells Roger Blitz why the case for continued dollar strength is more convincing than the case for further sterling weakness.
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Investors treated the UK foreign secretary's resignation with little concern, leaving the pound poised for a rally as the prospect of a softer Brexit looms into view. Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz why he is a buyer of sterling, and looks at the implications of trade tensions on the market
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China's central bank verbally intervened to stabilise the renminbi after a fall that echoed the dramatic declines of 2015-16. Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal tells Roger Blitz what we learned about China's currency strategy and argues that G10 policy normalisation is back on track, which should see the euro push higher
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Investors have barely had time to acknowledge that there is an EU summit taking place, as trade wars and China worries occupy their thoughts. But as John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz, that's not to say they are complacent about the implications of a slowing eurozone economy and rising populism on the continent
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The emerging markets sell-off is starting to weigh on Asian currencies. Mansoor Mohi-uddin of NatWest Markets explores the reasons with Roger Blitz, looking at the impact of trade tensions on China and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's ambivalence towards EM economies
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A big week in the policy making world saw the US Federal Reserve plough on with rate hikes while the European Central Bank took a more dovish approach, even though it set a timetable for the end of asset purchases. Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz what that means for the euro and the dollar.
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European Central Bank policymakers warmed up investors to a potentially big announcement next week on asset purchases and normalisation, sending the euro higher. Does this mark the end of the dollar rally? Not so fast, Rabobank's Jane Foley tells Roger Blitz - there is less to this ECB strategy shift than meets the eye.
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Markets were guilty of complacency about Italy, says Adrian Hilton of Columbia Threadneedle, failing to appreciate the existential threat to the euro. He tells Roger Blitz what this week's fallout in bonds and currencies means for investors' risk appetite for the rest of 2018
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The Turkish lira's collapse has emerging market investors wondering whether there is any case for continuing to hold assets there. Yerlan Syzdykov of European asset manager Amundi, who was among those investors to lunch with president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in London last week, examines the pros and cons with Roger Blitz
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Local factors are contributing to sharp falls in the currencies of Argentina and Turkey, but other emerging markets cannot escape the impact of the dollar's strength. Simon Quijano-Evans of Legal & General Investment Management looks at the implications for EM and tells Roger Blitz why the US cannot ignore the sell-off for too long
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The rout in emerging market currencies has exposed investors to an uncomfortable realisation - they were too willing to buy the EM rally at the start of the year, says Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management. He spells out to Roger Blitz the lessons of this episode
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The sharp rally in the dollar has investors asking whether it is sustainable or about to fizzle out. Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon has the answer, and as he tells Roger Blitz it’s all to do with yield.
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A rising dollar and a rising oil price are two of the big market moves of the week. But as Bill McQuaker of Fidelity International tells Roger Blitz, the biggest was the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 3 per cent, signalling the end of the bond bull market and the start of a more turbulent phase for markets.
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Despite global growth, investors are struggling to find a driver, not just in foreign exchange but in other markets. What's causing this doubt and introspection? Helen Thomas of macro-economic consultancy Blonde Money tells Roger Blitz that three market tremors of recent weeks, related to electronically-traded funds, are behind investor uncertainty
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With some notable exceptions, currencies are spookily quiet in the middle of tensions over trade, signs of slowing growth in Europe, and the ever-present risk that Twitter spats could spiral into geopolitical crises. But Tim Graf of State Street Global Markets tells Katie Martin that's what currencies are supposed to do. Embrace the calm, but keep an eye on the Turkish lira and rouble.
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Trade tensions and equity sell-offs should be making investors wary of risky emerging market assets. But Wike Groenenberg of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why EM is proving resilient to market pressures and looks at the factors that will influence its performance for the rest of the year
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January's euphoria seems a world away as volatility infects markets, but Silvia Dall'Angelo of Hermes Investment Management tells Roger Blitz that economic fundamentals are still sound and the dollar remains under pressure. The big worry, however, is a widening trade war.
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A Fed rate hike, market tensions about tariffs, a Brexit transition deal and Bank of England hawkishness - Erik Norland of CME Group tells Roger Blitz why things are looking up for sterling and less promising for the greenback
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How big an impact is the prospect of an international trade dispute centred on US tariffs having on the foreign exchange market? Viraj Patel joins the FT's Michael Hunter to look at the main factors moving currencies, including economic fundamentals and the outlook for interest rates
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The European Central Bank is creeping towards the exit from super-stimulative monetary policy. How can it do this without sending the euro flying, particularly while US trade policy unnerves dollar bulls? Stephen Gallo from BMO Capital Markets talked to the FT's Katie Martin about Trump, trade, and taper tantrums.
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New Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's optimistic view of the US economy and faster rate hikes caused stocks to sell off and the dollar to rise. But Jean Medecin of Carmignac thinks this outlook is too rosy, and that the world needs to get used to the idea of slowing global growth and static inflation.
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Federal Reserve hawkishness and market nerves have given the dollar a reprieve from depreciation, but reasons for its weakness far outweigh reasons why it may rebound. Bilal Hafeez of Nomura tells Roger Blitz that not only are we in a dollar bear market but we've been trading it for a year and it's got several years to go.
Foreign exchange investors have sat out much of the recent market volatility. Roger Hallam of JPMorgan Asset Management joins Michael Hunter to look at why dollar weakness has proved so stubborn and to identify the wider market trends.
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Was it a market turmoil, a crash? Or just a jolt, a correction? Whatever your description of this week's equities sell-off, it adds up to a healthy adjustment to a market that is better placed for volatility, as the world gets used to rising inflation and rate rises. That's the view of Max Kettner of Commerzbank, who also discusses with Roger Blitz the surprisingly hawkish Bank of England meeting and the fluctuating dollar
The apparent fondness for a weaker dollar among US administration officials has been enough to prompt HSBC's David Bloom to rip up his forecasts. But he tells Katie Martin that this is no currency war. In fact, currencies are on a path to peace and harmony.
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US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin sent forex traders' screens into meltdown when he said a weak dollar was in US interests. With trade tensions adding to currency volatility, Tim Graf of State Street talks to Roger Blitz about how much more the dollar could suffer from this double whammy, how Europe and China might respond and whether the gains being enjoyed by the euro, the yen and sterling are justified.
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2018 has so far seen the dollar fall - but why? Rising Treasury yields, strong US growth and a Federal Reserve all set to raise rates three times this year should be giving the greenback some impetus, but the opposite is happening. Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets admits it is hard to understand, but tells Roger Blitz why it may be happening, and looks ahead to next week's keenly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting
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Data, rumours and policy announcements big and small caused notable forex moves, including swings towards the euro and the yen, as investors rushed to grab the initiative at the start of 2018. Viraj Patel of ING sifts through the evidence and tells Roger Blitz which currency he thinks is this year's one to watch
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2017 was a year of transition, says Nick Gartside of JP Morgan Asset Management, as growth became more global and central banks adjusted monetary policy towards normalisation. That sets up 2018 as a year for accelerated growth and rising inflation, he tells Roger Blitz, and that means the euro is going to grow further at the dollar's expense as the ECB steps up tapering.
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BNY Mellon's Simon Derrick talks to Katie Martin about the curious case of stable sterling, the pending wave of tighter monetary policy, and the hidden signs of nerves in global markets.
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Roger Blitz discusses the impact on the currency markets of signs of Brexit breakthroughs and movement on US tax cuts with Richard Benson of Millennium Global.
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The German chancellor's coalition problems had only a fleeting impact on the euro, as investors were more interested in rising business confidence in the eurozone. George Papamarkakis of North Asset Management tells Roger Blitz why the single currency is in good shape and why the Swedish krona is also heading higher despite a big fall this week
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Market jitters have hit equities, junk bonds and emerging market currencies. Is this something for forex investors and others to worry about? No, State Street's Michael Metcalfe tells Roger Blitz, but although the global economy remains in "Goldilocks" territory, surprise upside inflation data could change all that.
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Donald Trump's election victory 12 months ago set off a dollar rally and protectionism fears, and heightened political risk in Europe. Roger Blitz asks Eoin Murray of Hermes Investment Management whether markets are more immune to shock, if benign forex conditions will last and what to watch out for in 2018.
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The first Bank of England rates hike in a decade left forex investors underwhelmed. With the economy sluggish and wage growth limited, John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz why BoE governor Mark Carney is risking a policy mistake
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In the week the European Central Bank outlined its plans to wind down stimulus, Stephen Gallo of the Bank of Montreal joins Michael Hunter to tune into the signals hidden in the noise
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Investors couldn't help notice the impasse in negotiations over Nafta, Brexit and Catalonia, but did they care very much? Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why the foreign exchange market is more interested in central bank developments than talks deadlock
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Investors brushed off the plunge in the lira as a Turkish difficulty rather than wider issues with emerging market currencies. Is EM FX less vulnerable these days to contagion, or are there more pressing worries for EM, such as a rising dollar, China growth concerns and commodity price movements? Sergei Strigo of asset manager Amundi discusses its prospects with Roger Blitz
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Whether it is the choice of Federal Reserve chair, Japan's election, Theresa May's chaotic speech or Catalonia's bid for independence, leadership has been the dominant theme moving currencies, as Itay Tuchman of Citigroup explains to Roger Blitz
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Politics was the driver of the forex market at the start of the year, but its influence is now waning, says HSBC's David Bloom. Investors are far more focused on monetary policy and interest rate differentials, he tells Roger Blitz, although pockets of political risk persist
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A hawkish Federal Reserve pushed the dollar higher, but investors stopped short of igniting a full-throttle greenback rally. That is because their focus is on the interest rate deliberations of other central banks, Swissquote's Peter Rosenstreich tells Roger Blitz, with the European Central Bank the one being watched most closely
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The Bank of England is leaning towards a rate hike, pushing the pound higher. But does UK data justify the bank's hawkishness, and is sterling's elevated level warranted in the context of ongoing Brexit uncertainty? Jeremy Cook of World First talks to Roger Blitz about BoE governor Mark Carney's options.
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Worries about euro volatility featured heavily in ECB president Mario Draghi's press conference this week. But if he was trying to talk down the euro, he failed, says Commerzbank's Max Kettner. He tells Roger Blitz what this means for the euro now and looks at other factors likely to move the currency
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After a hammering from Donald Trump's election, emerging market currencies have sprung back in style. Paul McNamara from GAM talks to Katie Martin about Donald's dollar, global growth, and whether Tajik bonds are the latest sign of exuberance.
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Is the dollar flickering back into life and when will the pound reach its bottom against the euro? Richard Blackden puts these questions to Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon.
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Sterling found support this week after strong wages and jobs data. The rebound followed lacklustre inflation data, but after a multi-decade high for employment and a forecast-beating rise in incomes, have the Bank of England's hawks been left with more room to fly? Nick Gartside, International CIO of Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management thinks so, and explains why to Michael Hunter.
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Geopolitical risk made its presence felt across the currencies spectrum this week, as Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un clashed over North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Lee Hardman of MUFG joins Michael Hunter to measure the market's reaction.
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The pound received a pummeling after the Bank of England voted 6-2 to leave rates on hold and cut growth forecasts in its quarterly inflation report. John Wraith, head of UK rates strategy and economics at UBS joins the FT's Michael Hunter to plot where the pound fits in with the shifting outlook for monetary policy under the shadow of Brexit. Read more at Brexit uncertainty is holding back investment, Mark Carney warns
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The world's reserve currency hit a 14-month low after the Fed's statement on monetary policy this week. Concern about the US central bank's preoccupation with softer-than-expected inflation put the dollar under broad pressure. Stephen Gallo, European Head of FX Strategy at Bank of Montreal, joins Michael Hunter to assess the shifting policy outlook at the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
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If ECB president Mario Draghi was hoping his press conference would temper market expectations about tapering, he didn't succeed, as the euro pulled higher. Valentin Marinov of Credit Agricole looks at the key takeaways from the ECB meeting and concludes that tapering is indeed coming, so long as the euro doesn't appreciate too fast
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Canada raised rates, unworried that inflation remains below target. But doubts about inflation targeting resurfaced in the US. Kamal Sharma at Bank of America Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz why central bank views on prices differ, and how the debate will shape monetary policy in the UK and Europe
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Central bankers are thinking of turning off the taps all over the world, sending markets into a spin. But with the trend so widespread, it's tough to see where this leaves currencies, Peter Schaffrik of RBC tells Katie Martin.
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Markets took their cue from policymakers' speeches at a central bank gathering this week to inject new life into the euro and the pound. But Steven Saywell of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz that he believes they are too bearish about the US and are mispricing the dollar
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The Bank of England split highlights how central banks are preparing to end years of easing and shift to monetary tightening. But how fast will the change come and how will the pound and other currencies respond? Commerzbank's senior economist Peter Dixon discusses the moves with Roger Blitz, and looks at how the causes of inflation and the way it is measured are also under review.
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Bilal Hafeez of Nomura steers Roger Blitz through a turbulent forex week, which saw markets downplay the hawkish rate hike of the Federal Reserve, buy and sell the pound on a hung parliament, Brexit uncertainty and Bank of England dissent and get caught out by Canadian policymakers' change of tune.
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The election of a minority Tory government has thrown the UK into another bout of political uncertainty, yet investors are not rushing to ditch sterling. Kit Juckes of Societe Generale and Simon Derrick of BNY Melllon tell Roger Blitz why its relative cheapness and prospects of a soft Brexit are keeping the pound afloat, but they doubt whether the currency can withstand the turbulence of a hung parliament
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Derek Halpenny from MUFG joins Michael Hunter to assess the outlook for the pound in the final run-up to the UK election, and also takes a look at the political risk faced by a resurgent euro
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A stronger euro, a weaker dollar, a nervous pound - currencies sparred with each other but none looked capable of delivering a knockout blow. Tim Graf of State Street tells Roger Blitz why the market is in a circumspect, defensive mood
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A frenzied week in forex saw the dollar and emerging market currencies come under fire, while investors loved the euro and took the pound through $1.30. Jane Foley of Rabobank sifts through the moves and tells Roger Blitz that while Donald Trump's woes were a catalyst, the big investor worry is about China and the US economy.
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China is tightening liquidity, commodities have fallen, oil is volatile. So why is Goldman Sachs' Kamakshya Trivedi upbeat about emerging market currencies? It's all about current account balances, inflation, very good trade data and a shift in political risk, he tells Roger Blitz
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Millennium Global's Richard Benson talks to Roger Blitz about the forex developments of the week, including the pound's resilience in the face of a furious Brexit brawl and the likely impact on the dollar and the euro if next month delivers both a US rate hike and ECB tapering signals
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There are too many snags to offer a convincing case for buying the dollar, the euro and sterling, says Adrian Owens of GAM. He tells Roger Blitz why he thinks there are better opportunities in emerging market currencies
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Theresa May's snap election caused a surge in the pound and had investors purring at the idea that a smooth Brexit is coming. Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management tells Roger Blitz whether he thinks the market's optimism is justified and looks at the euro's prospects after Sunday's first round in the French presidential election.
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Investors seemed fairly relaxed about the French presidential election until far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon spoiled their mood by polling strongly. Nomura's Jordan Rochester tells Roger Blitz what his emergence spells for the euro and explains how to trade the markets between the first and second rounds of the election.
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The official start of Britain's negotiations to leave the EU hasn't done further damage to the pound. But George Saravaleos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, says that the messy politics of Brexit will eventually catch up with sterling.
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The first quarter's popular bets - strong dollar, weak peso, high yields - did not pan out the way investors expected. But Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz that the next few months promise decent returns in forex despite ongoing worries about political risk
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Not many, says Steven Barrow of Standard Bank. There may be some short-term upside for the euro, the pound and emerging market currencies, he tells Roger Blitz, but none of these are likely to stay supported as investors itch to revive the dollar rally.
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A dovish Federal Reserve is giving grief to the greenback, but Sam Lynton-Brown of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz there is good reason to expect the dollar to keep rising, while there is a fair chance that sterling will enjoy short-term support
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Strong Eurozone growth and inflation has increased talk about the European Central Bank moving away from easy monetary conditions. But Max Kettner of Commerzbank tells Roger Blitz why the case for a stronger euro is balanced at best
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Hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials was the big dollar driver this week, but Steven Englander of Citigroup tells Roger Blitz why investors should still keep faith in the Trumpflation trade
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Itchy investors are saying goodbye and good riddance to February in the forex market. Kathleen Brooks of City Index tells Roger Blitz that there is much more to look forward to in March, but for the moment, dollar uncertainty is the dominant theme, followed by rising European political risk and a more measured view of Brexit
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The pound has proved surprisingly resilient around the $1.25 level, even as inflation data out this week looked lacklustre. Koon Chow of UBP tells Michael Hunter what is on the watchlist for the UK currency and takes a tour or the agenda for the dollar and the euro
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Donald Trump is golfing with Japan's prime minister, with currency manipulation high on the agenda. Jeremy Cook of World First tells Roger Blitz what the FX implications are likely to be, and also weighs up political risk on the euro
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US protectionism may be more talk than action, but that's not to say it won't have a currencies impact. Athanasios Vamvakidis of BofA Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz why, and also explains how to apply game theory to a Brexit transition deal and what that means for the pound
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Mexico's peso is too competitive for its own good, Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal tells Roger Blitz - but it is in also in US interests to conclude a mutually acceptable renegotiation of Nafta
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The pound's rally following the UK prime minister's Brexit speech and Donald Trump's problems with a strong dollar dominated currency markets - even before inauguration day. Paul Lambert of Insight Investments walks Roger Blitz through another week of FX fluctuations
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Investors were left baffled and disappointed by Donald Trump's lack of policy detail at his feisty press conference. Jane Foley of Rabobank tells Roger Blitz why market scepticism about the reflation trade is growing and what that means for the dollar rally
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A 14-year high for the dollar, the renminbi's best-ever two-day gain, a sharp dollar correction and a central bank intervention. David Bloom of HSBC walks Roger Blitz through the frantic foreign exchange start to the year and concludes that the dollar rally is nowhere near over.
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Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon looks back on a trumultuous year in the foreign exchange market, and gives Roger Blitz his predictions of the big market events for 2017
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The Federal Reserve's hawkish position, which is driving dollar strength, is not a response to Donald Trump and the prospects of fiscal stimulus, Mark Astley of Millennium Global Investments tells Roger Blitz, but a reappraisal of the strength of the US economy
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After the turbulence of 2016, Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jacobsen dares to offer Roger Blitz his predictions for next year, including a stronger pound and yen, and a dollar that disappoints its bull advocates
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November awoke investors' animal spirits, no more so than in the dollar rally, but Alan Wilde of Barings tells Roger Blitz that pitfalls lie in the way throughout December
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The US currency is on a tear, but it's not all down to Donald Trump, Silvia Ardagna from Goldman Sachs tells Katie Martin. With investors finally catching up to US economic strength, an overshoot in the buck is easy to imagine.
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A market that is learning to tread cautiously when it comes to politics has become remarkably gung-ho about what Donald Trump's election victory means for the dollar and the US economy. Kamal Sharma of Bank of America Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz why investors are piling into the greenback and treating the euro with caution
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We don't know which of his policies President Trump will be able to implement, Nomura's Bilal Hafeez tells Roger Blitz - but it's a pretty reasonable bet that a period of dollar strength is coming
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Political risk once again messed with foreign exchange investors, putting pressure on the dollar in the week before the US election and boosting the pound. Paul Lambert at Insight Investment tells Roger Blitz why this is no time for conviction trading
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Geoffrey Yu of UBS Wealth Management puts this week's record low for the offshore version on China's currency into context, and tells Michael Hunter what the market will be looking at for the renminbi towards the end of 2016.
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Expectations this week of big moves in the pound, the dollar and the euro all failed to materialise. Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon tells Roger Blitz why this may not last long, as a US election and continuing Brexit worries exercise market minds
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No one likes the pound right now as the market focuses heavily on UK politics, but Steven Saywell at BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz that investors are leaning too heavily towards selling sterling and so a rebound is on the cards
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Sterling bashers have once again got the upper hand as the UK seems to swing towards a messy divorce from the EU, while eurozone markets are chewing over the potential for the ECB to turn off the stimulus taps. Frederik Ducrozet of Pictet Wealth Management talks about the implications with Katie Martin.
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While rates remain so low in G10 and the Federal Reserve sticks to a gradual rate path, the case for investing in emerging markets just gets stronger, Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management tells Roger Blitz
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Mexico's rapidly weakening peso shows how the tightening US election polls are focusing market minds on what a Trump-led protectionist policy might mean for America's trading partners. Paul McNamara of GAM discusses with Roger Blitz the implications for emerging markets and US rate expectations
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Could the Federal Reserve learn something about how to communicate to the market from the Swiss National Bank? Peter Rosenstreich of Swissquote and FT Switzerland correspondent Ralph Atkins join Roger Blitz to discuss how currencies respond to policymakerspeak.
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While the European Central Bank tackles a sceptical market, the Bank of England takes credit for surprising UK economic data. But as Rabobank's Jane Foley tells Roger Blitz, it's the US that really calls the shots.
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The market has become more sanguine about the devaluation of the Chinese currency in recent months. Geoffrey Yu of UBS discusses what has changed and tells Rochelle Toplensky what we can expect in the event of a Fed rate rise.
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The pound, the yen and the dollar have dominated FX in 2016, putting the euro in the shade. But as Dominic Bunning of HSBC tells Roger Blitz, there is growing resilience in the performance of the single currency and that is set to continue.
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A pick-up in the pound, a call to rethink Federal Reserve strategy, yen strength and US rate hike talk awoke FX traders from their sunbeds. Societe Generale's Kit Juckes sifts through the week's developments and tells Roger Blitz which of them really matters
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Stephen Gallo from the Bank of Montreal looks back at China' s move to devalue its currency a year ago, and tells Michael Hunter that policymakers have since adopted a softly-softly approach to ensuring the renminbi can reflect the rebalancing of its economy while also adapting to conditons on the global market.
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The Bank of England's rate cut, a stuttering US economy and the ongoing difficulties of the eurozone should help currencies linked to commodities and strong emerging markets, Koon Chow of UBP tells Michael Hunter.
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The outlook for policy at central banks id back at the forefront of the market. Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, joins Michael Hunter to discuss if policymakers will ever have conditions that are 'practically perfect in every way' before they can act
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The dollar is on the rise, suggesting the market is either unfazed by the prospect of a Trump presidency or has yet to focus on it. Jordan Rochester of Nomura tells Roger Blitz that a Trump triumph wouldn't be the first "shock" to be ignored by the market
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Steven Englander of Citigroup tells Roger Blitz why global concerns have moved on from the UK's European travails to the search for yield, China and Trump
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The UK vote was a shock, but is it a systemic one? Michael Metcalfe of State Street tells Roger Blitz there are already signs that the rest of the world can quarantine the impact of Brexit around the UK
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With sterling heading south and no sign of an end to UK political instability, the market will be looking to the Bank of England governor to calm nerves, Baring Asset Management's Alan Wilde tells Roger Blitz
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In an EU referendum special, Roger Blitz discusses the short and long-term consequences of the shock victory for the Leave camp with FX strategists Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon and Kit Juckes of Societe Generale. They also discuss where the pain will be felt the most.
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Leaving the EU will have a number of potential knock-on effects, John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz - including a UK rate cut, the return of QE, eurozone pressures and a sharp drop in the pound. But if history is a guide, sterling could well return to current levels once the dust has settled
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On the FX battlefield, investors worry about the EU referendum but not a Trump presidency. That won't last, Jeremy Cook of World First tells Roger Blitz
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The yen hasn't followed the script so far this year, at least that of Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan. Its rise against the dollar this year is causing a headache, and Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker tells Richard Blackden why authorities are going to have to live with it.
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A fall in the yuan's daily fix to a five-year low has the market wondering whether China is heading for another bout of currency devaluation jitters. Paul McNamara of GAM tells Roger Blitz that a strong dollar is bound to cause problems for China, but not on the scale of previous episodes of FX volatility.
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You thought dollar weakness was here to stay? Think again, Société Générale's Vincent Chaigneau tells Roger Blitz, as market assumptions are once again turned on their head. Don't assume, however, that a strong dollar means a weak yen and don't be surprised if China currency concerns resurface.
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Markets used to take political risk in its stride - not any more, says Ousmene Mandeng of New Sparta Asset Management. He tells Roger Blitz why markets have become so sensitive to Brexit, Trump and other geopolitical events
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Bad news is good news, HSBC's David Bloom tells Roger Blitz, as a weak dollar and Federal Reserve caution opens up the currency market to a risk-on, risk-off climate. But when does bad news become bad news?
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Two central banks held firm this week. But while the Bank of Japan's grip on its currency slipped, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen stayed very much in control of the dollar, as Derek Halpenny of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explains to Roger Blitz.
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Sterling and the euro are moving one way then the other in rapid order. Charles St Arnaud of Nomura tells Roger Blitz how FX moves are becoming very short-term, as investors fret about holding positions for too long.
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A breathless rally in emerging market FX begs the obvious question: will it last? Claire Dissaux of Millennium Global Investments tells Roger Blitz what will influence the rally and which parts of EM look more attractive than others.
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When will the Bank of Japan say enough is enough on this yen rally? BNY Mellon's Simon Derrick discusses the big dollar pullback with Katie Martin and explains which buzzwords from Tokyo matter.
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Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is becoming more dependent on the market than data in determining monetary policy. Steven Barrow of Standard Bank tells Roger Blitz why that's not a good idea.
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Market turmoil has given way to market calm. Is it down to a currency wars truce, and how long will the calm hold? Adam Cole of RBC Capital Markets tells Roger Blitz it won't last.
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Why did the Federal Reserve turn so dovish? Citigroup FX strategist Steven Englander offers his theories to Roger Blitz, and explains why global factors are playing such a key role in determining the US rate hike path
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Wild movement sent the euro all over the FX shop after the European Central Bank meeting. Themos Fiotakis of UBS sifts through the debris and tells Roger Blitz why it all adds up to one thing - low growth and low rates ain't going away any time soon.
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Investor behaviour in 2016 feels schizophrenic, Matthew Cobon of Columbia Threadneedle tells Roger Blitz. What does that mean for the rest of the year and how does it influence FX trading strategies?
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Sterling's fall following London mayor Boris Johnson's backing for the Leave campaign in the UK referendum is all about an aimless FX market needing direction, Peter Rosenstreich of Swissquote tells Roger Blitz.
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The yen's haven properties shone during the recent market turmoil, but Japan's currency has stayed high while calm has returned. Koon Chow, strategist at Union Bancaire Privée, tells Michael Hunter that wider worries are casting a shadow over currencies.
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The dash towards negative interest rates does not seem to be working, leaving markets in a state of flux. Paul Lambert from Insight Investment tells Katie Martin why we need to have a more innovative policy plan, including debt write-offs, and warns it could all get worse before it gets better.
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The Bank of England has kicked UK rate rises into the long grass, but short term, sterling is holding relatively firm anyway. Kamal Sharma of Bank of America Merrill Lynch tells Katie Martin why.
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Deutsche Bank's Oliver Harvey talks to the FT's Katie Martin about sterling's horrible run, the cross currents for the euro, and the irresistible allure of the Swedish krona.
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As the market tumult continues, central banks have been having their say on the global climate. Hans Redeker of Morgan Stanley explains to Roger Blitz the choices ahead for the eurozone, Japan and the US.
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As central banks begin their first meetings of 2016 and delegates prepare for next week's Davos gathering, what does the impact of China and oil price turbulence means for G10 currencies and in particular the Federal Reserve's rate cycle? Roger Blitz asks, Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal answers.
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2016 has begun with the currencies market reeling from a falling oil price and China slowdown fears. Jane Foley, FX strategist at Rabobank, tells Roger Blitz why none of this should be of much surprise to investors.
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Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen finally got the interest rate hike she wanted. Roger Hallam at JPMorgan Asset Management gives Roger Blitz her report card, examining how she managed to turn around the Fed's battered reputation, and what signals she sent for the pace of the tightening cycle.
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Beijing has been letting its currency fall again. Richard Benson of investment manager Millennium Global talks to Roger Blitz about the implications, examines the impact of China's economic rebalancing on commodity currencies and discusses how to fix central banks' lines of miscommunication.
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Did European Central Bank president Mario Draghi over-promise on monetary policy expansion or did the market expect too much? Thanos Vamvakidis of Bank of America Merrill Lynch tells Roger Blitz what the market reaction to ECB policy means for the direction of the euro, and whether transatlantic divergence remains on course.
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Adam Cole of RBC Capital Markets tells Katie Martin why the euro and dollar still pounce on well-known signs of contrasting US and European monetary policy.
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Peter Kinsella of Commerzbank tells Roger Blitz why the rally in emerging market currencies will be short-lived but why there won't be a full-scale resumption in FX declines
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As Mario Draghi continues to talk down the euro, Roger Blitz discusses with Derek Halpenny of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ the ECB's president's options for further monetary easing, and what the dollar's strength means for the yen and emerging market currencies.
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Roger Blitz asks Kit Juckes of Societe Generale what he makes of Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's increasingly optimistic words on a December rate hike, and how they contrast with the surprising dovishness of Bank of England governor Mark Carney.
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Just how hawkish is Janet Yellen really feeling after this week's US Federal Reserve meeting raised the prospect of a festive-season rate rise? Michael Hunter talks to Steven Saywell of BNP Paribas on what the Fed really means and what it means for other central banks.
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How wobbly is the Chinese economy and what impact will this have on its trading partners. Are we in for a sustained period of market instability? Roger Blitz discusses these and other currency market questions with Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon
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Roger Blitz asks Dominic Bunning of HSBC what's behind the recent sprightliness of some emerging market currencies. Can the new-found optimism last, or is it a short-term reversal?
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What influence is the Federal Reserve's rate hike caution having on its transatlantic partner? Roger Blitz talks to Ian Stannard of Morgan Stanley about Britain's inflation problem, the drawbacks in the UK economy and the impact of sterling fluctuation on Bank of England monetary policy.
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In a week dominated by Brazil, Russia, India and China, Roger Blitz and Ilan Solot of Brown Brothers Harriman discuss why the Bric countries continue to show why they are important to the currency market despite the growing gulf in the fortunes of this once-vaunted group.
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Roger Blitz talks to Marvin Barth of Barclays about market turbulence, the impact of slowing growth in China, the spread of "Dutch disease" and the trend for central banks to opt for negative interest rates
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What do migrants, robots and the political left have to do with FX? Paul Lambert of Insight Investment talks to Roger Blitz about some of the big issues of the day and why everyone from policy makers to FX traders and analysts cannot ignore them.
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Steven Englander of Citigroup tells Roger Blitz how the rest of the world views the Fed's contortions over its rate hike options, why some central banks are gripped by paralysis and what the ideal circumstances might be in the US economy for a rate hike.
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Vincent Chaigneau of Société Générale tells Roger Blitz how falls in commodity prices and emerging market currencies are making it harder for central banks in developed countries to reach their inflation targets.
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Why the panic? Paul McNamara, portfolio manager at GAM Holding, tells Roger Blitz why the markets should not have been shocked by China's slowing economy, how it plays on the Fed's rate hike calculations and why the bottom in emerging market currencies may soon be reached.
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Roger Blitz and Jane Foley of Rabobank discuss the repercussions of China's economic weakness, with emerging market fundamentals laid bare and the Fed's dilemma over when to move on interest rates intensified.
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A dramatic shift in China's exchange rate policy has seen the renminbi fall for three consecutive days, throwing the markets off course. Roger Blitz asks Charles St-Arnaud of Nomura what this critical moment in the world's biggest economy signals for the rest of the world.
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Michael Hunter is joined by Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal to discuss what we learnt about the timing and pace of the Bank of England's next move on interest rates, the performance of the pound, and the risks weighing on the minds of Fed and BoE policymakers as they ponder when to raise rates
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Geoff Yu, strategist at UBS, tells Michael Hunter which numbers the Fed will be looking at as the approaching US rate rise dominates the market. He also offers a view on the curious strength of the euro, sterling's prospects and the outlook for emerging market currencies.
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Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, tells Roger Blitz when he thinks the Fed and the Bank of England will move on rates, as data continues to drive the markets
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As worries about Greece, China and the oil price ease in the forex market, Roger Blitz talks to Alan Wilde of Baring Asset Management about whether the market really has recovered its risk appetite and about just how hawkish the UK and US central banks truly are.
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After a week when China added to market nerves already frayed by Greece and the price of oil took a dive, Roger Blitz asks Hamish Pepper, currency strategist at Barclays how investors should react. Should they flock to the yen, the haven of the moment, learn to love the dollar again, or take a break and wait until the fuss dies down?
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Steven Englander, head of global FX strategy at Citigroup, tries to avoid talking about the Greek debt crisis with Roger Blitz, and instead discusses the currency themes from the first half of 2015 and what to expect for the rest of the year
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Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada talks to Roger Blitz about the health of the euro in the climate of the Greek crisis, and why risk appetite in the currency universe may be short-lived.
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Roger Blitz talks to Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe at JP Morgan Asset Management, about what Fed Chair Janet Yellen's statement means for the likelihood of a September rate rise, Greece's impact on the euro, and whether the pound is looking like a safe haven currency.
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Matthew Cobon, fund manager at ColumbiaThreadneedle, tells Roger Blitz why central bankers are not as omnipotent as the markets think they are, why he is steering clear of emerging markets, and where volatility is coming from.
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Roger Blitz is joined by David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC, to discuss the euro-dollar rally, how the markets read the Fed's forward guidance and other central bank signals, and political risk in forex ahead of the Turkish election.
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Ralph Atkins and his guest John Normand of JP Morgan discuss recent patterns of currency turbulence, why the Yen has fallen - and what will happen to sterling as UK election excitement fades
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Roger Blitz and his guest Ian Stannard of Morgan Stanley discuss where the Japanese currency is headed now that it has broken out of its long-held range, as well as this week's euro volatility.
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Roger Blitz is joined by Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman to discuss the US economy's weak performance and its impact on the currency markets, whether the eurozone is on a sustained path to recovery, and the post-election shine on sterling.
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Roger Blitz discusses this week's market unwinding with Roger Hallam, of JPMorgan Asset Management. With the dollar down, the euro up, Brent crude oil close to $70 a barrel and bonds being sold off, is this a return to some semblance of normality?
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A week before the UK poll, Sam Hill of RBC Capital Markets and Tina Fordham from Citigroup talk to Roger Blitz about how the market views a hung parliament, Brexit, Scottish nationalism and the relative health of the UK economy
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As the currency market prepares for the Federal Reserve's next move, further talks on Greece and the UK election, Lena Komileva of G Plus Economics discusses how the US is preparing the global economy for a rate increase, why the euro decline isn't greater, and the political risk to sterling
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Roger Blitz talks to Steve Barrow of Standard Bank about his damning assessment on the euro, the rapid descent of German bund yields and the weak link between a country's growth prospects and its currency.
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Ralph Atkins is joined by Peter Kinsella of Commerzbank to discusses the great dollar bull run, whether the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy further, and the increasing trend by central banks around the world to surprise the markets.
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Roger Blitz, joined by Paul Lambert of BNY Mellon's Insight Investment fund, looks back at the seismic forex events in the first quarter and ahead to Good Friday's US jobs data - the next big event on the currencies radar.
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Roger Blitz is joined by Kit Juckes, global strategist at Société Générale, to discuss where next for the dollar, what's causing forex volatility and whether markets will be taking a more data-driven view of currency values.
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Roger Blitz discusses the FOMC policy statement and the dramatic moves in the currency markets with Marc Chandler, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
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Roger Blitz is joined by Jane Foley, senior strategist at Rabobank to discuss the start of Quantitive Easing in the eurozone and the rapid pace of the euro's decline against the dollar.
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As the euro once again touches new lows against the dollar, Roger Blitz discusses the resumption of euro-funded carry trade and what are the biggest factors at play with Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon.
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With the pound up about 4 per cent against the dollar since hitting a cyclical low in January, and up about 5 per cent against the euro over the same period, how much are interest rate expectations supporting the UK currency. Neil Dennis discusses sterling's strength with Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro.
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Vivianne Rodrigues talks to Vassili Serbriakov, foreign exchange strategist at BNP Paribas about the impact of this week's Fed minutes on the US dollar, the release of the eurozone balance of payments reports and the Bank of England's comments about the next UK interest rate rise
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Neil Dennis is joined by Lee Hardman, strategist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi to discuss central bank strategies as Sweden's Riksbank becomes the latest to lower its key interest rate in a bid to drive down its currency.
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Neil Dennis is joined by Steve Barrow from Standard Bank to discuss the ECB's decision to raise the stakes against Greece by tightening the Greek Central Bank's access to liquidity and the possible domino effects, the Australian Central Bank's move to ease interest rates, and tomorrow's US jobs data.
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Neil Dennis talks to Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank about the Fed's apparent unconcern over the dollar's rise, whether the Australian dollar is overvalued, and why the euro appears unruffled by the ECB decision on QE and a new hard-left government in Greece.
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Alice Ross talks to foreign exchange strategist Sebastien Galy of Societe Generale about the reasons why the Euro fell to its lowest level in more than a decade after the ECB announced its long-awaited decision on quantitative easing.
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On the day the the euro dipped to its lowest-ever level against theSwiss franc following the Swiss National Bank's surprise decision toscrap its currency floor against the single currency, Alice Ross talksto Marc Chandler, global head of markets strategy at Brown BrothersHarriman, about what happened and what it means for investors.
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As the euro continues to fall, when will the European Central Bankstart buying government bonds and is that priced into the euro yet?Alice Ross, markets correspondent, discusses the outlook for thesingle currency as well as what central banks are doing about currencyreserves and when the Fed will tighten rates with Alan Ruskin, foreignexchange strategist at Deutsche Bank.
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With all eyes on the European Central Bank for January, is full-blownquantitative easing priced into the single currency yet? Alice Ross,markets correspondent, discusses the outlook for the euro, as well asthe dollar and the yen in 2015, with Peter Kinsella, foreign currencystrategist at Commerzbank.
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Will Switzerland's introduction of negative interest rates help itkeep the franc weak in the face of haven flows amid Russia's currencycrisis? Alice Ross, markets correspondent, asks Steven Englander,foreign currency strategist at Citigroup, what the outlook for thefranc is. Also, how will the dollar trade after the FOMC meeting, andwhat is the future for Japan's yen?
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As the dollar continues to smash through multi-year highs against other major currencies, Alice Ross, markets correspondent, asks Jason Thomas, managing director and director of research at Carlyle, what the risks are for dollar bulls. Also, how US investors are getting access to euro-investments and the outlook for Asian currencies.
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With a lower oil price likely to reinforce the divergence of US and EU monetary policy, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Marc Chandler, strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, what the risks are to the overwhelming consensus that the dollar will continue to rally. Also, will Japan's elections trigger another fall in the yen - and at what point will investors start to worry about the political risks for UK assets?
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With the dollar at a 7 year high against the yen, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, what it will take to reignite its rally against other major currencies. Also, does the Save our Swiss Gold Initiative threaten the SNB's cap on the Swiss franc, and should investors worry about the consensus prevailing in forex markets?
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As an effective free float of the rouble drives the currency to all-time lows, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, is joined by Tom Levinson, strategist at Sberbank CIB, to discuss the change in policy. Will Russia's central bank step in to defend the rouble; does it have further to fall before it finds a new level; and what are the implications for currencies of central and eastern European neighbours?
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After a hawkish policy statement from the US Federal Reserve, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Michael Sneyd, currency strategist at BNP Paribas, whether this will revive the dollar rally. Also, what to expect from ECB policy makers next week - and what does the kiwi's fall tell us about the outlook for other growth-sensitive currencies?
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As investors nurse losses from last week's flash crash in US bond yields, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Valentin Marinov, strategist at Citigroup, what it would take to restore their confidence in the dollar, whether the Bank of England will still worry about a strong pound, and what the ECB's bank stress tests will mean for the euro.
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After the greenback's biggest one-day fall in more than a year, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Matthew Cobon, fund manager at Threadneedle Investments, whether this is the end of the dollar rally; whether volatility will persist; and which fear is the dominant one for investors.
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With Fed officials underlining concerns over the exchange rate, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Derek Halpenny, strategist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, whether the dollar’s three month surge can continue; how the yen is affected by changing investment patterns in Japan and why politics is pressuring the pound.
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With the single currency already below the levels many had forecast for the end of the year, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Peter Kinsella, strategist at Commerzbank, whether the ECB will try to engineer a bigger depreciation. Also, will the dollar rally maintain its momentum, and can New Zealand's central bank continue to talk down the kiwi.
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As the prospect of higher US interest rates puts emerging markets under renewed pressure, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Koon Chow, emerging markets strategist at Barclays, whether we will see a repeat of last year's 'taper tantrum'. Also, what is the scope for volatility as carry trades unwind, and what are the risks of China resorting to exchange rate intervention to boost flagging growth.
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With the vote to remain in the union prompting only the briefest rally in the pound, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Alan Wilde, head of fixed income and currency at Baring Asset Management, what the longer term implications of the vote will be for investors.
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After the dollar hit a six year high against the yen this week and gained against emerging markets, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Simon Derrick, foreign currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, whether the US currency’s rally is part of a long-running trend based on interest rate divergence or the result of a retreat from political risk. They also discussthe reasons for the renminbi’s rise and Swiss policymakers’ options to keep the franc in check.
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As the ECB's rate cuts send the euro to a 14 month low, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Paul Lambert, fund manager at Insight Investment, how this changes the equation for the single currency. Also, are we about to see a new bout of volatility in the foreign exchange market - and what will the Scottish referendum mean for the pound?
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With the dollar's rally putting emerging markets currencies under pressure, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Ilan Solot, strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, whether emerging markets are now better placed to withstand a rise in global rates - and what political developments in Brazil and Turkey will mean for two of last year's 'fragile five' currencies.
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The pound endured its biggest one-day drop in nearly six months on Wednesday. The Bank of England has been sending out mixed messages on when interest rate hikes may or may not occur over recent months - but did the consensus for rate rises change this week? And how might continued Eurozone weakness affect sterling? Also, how is the political situation in Turkey affecting the performance of the lira? Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, joins Thomas Hale.
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The pound has risen rapidly over the past year. But it fell in July, and faces uncertainties when it comes to Scotland's independence referendum in September. Thomas Hale asks Phyllis Papadavid, currencies strategist at BNP Paribas, what the future holds for sterling. Is the pound overvalued? How much of an impact on the currency might Scottish independence have?
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The dollar reached 10-month highs this week on the back of stronger economic growth in the US and a gradually changing horizon for monetary policy. Thomas Hale asks Ian Stannard, head of European currencies strategy at Morgan Stanley, how far the dollar might climb, and what this means for other currencies, especially the euro. Might the dollar’s resurgence also prompt a rise in volatility?
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With the forex market showing only a modest reaction to tougher sanctions against Russia, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Elsa Lignos, strategist at RBC Capital Markets, whether currency investors have become less sensitive to geopolitical risk. Also, can we expect any sustained strength in the dollar after this week's rally; and should Canada's central bank try to talk down its currency?
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As a rate cut by Sweden's central bank sends the krone to a 3 1/2 year low, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Chis Turner, strategist at ING, whether ECB easing has sparked a race to the bottom among the eurozone's neighbours. Also: how far will the ECB still be concerned about euro strength, and what to make of intervention to defend Kong Kong's currency peg?
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With the violence in Iraq worsening, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Geoff Yu, currency strategist at UBS, how an oil supply shock would affect currency markets. Also, why dollar bulls face a difficult summer, and what to make of a stark change in policy from Norway's central bank.
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With investors piling into higher-yielding currencies, James Kwok, head of currency management at Amundi Asset Management, tells Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, why the carry trade is the only game in town. Also, why the ECB will struggle to weaken the euro further - and the reasons for the New Zealand dollar's surge
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As markets absorb the ECB's announcement of a negative deposit rate and credit easing, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Jeffrey Frankel, professor at Harvard University Kennedy School of Government, how far this takes the ECB in its fight against deflation - and whether it is becoming a covert actor in the so-called currency wars
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With UK policy makers flagging concerns over the rising risks of a bubble in the housing market, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, how macroprudential measures would affect sterling. Also, what would be the knock-on effects of ECB easing for other currencies - and what does range-bound trading in the yen tell us about the state of the forex market?
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With Mario Draghi's efforts to talk down the euro bearing fruit, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Jane Foley, strategist at Rabobank, whether investors are now expecting too much of the ECB. And with central banks around the world keen to see weaker exchange rates, are we on the verge of a new currency war?
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With the euro close to 2 month highs against the dollar, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Steven Englander, strategist at Citigroup, what Mario Draghi will need to say to stop it rising further if the ECB keep policy unchanged today. Also, why the dollar is so soft - and how much longer can the carry trade in emerging market currencies continue?
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With the greenback suffering from dismal first quarter growth data, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Peter Kinsella, strategist at Commerzbank, whether dollar bulls can expect any relief from Friday's US jobs data; how to explain the persistent slump in volatility; and whether M&A announcements should affect exchange rates.
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Hard Currency is taking a short break over Easter, and will be back in the last week of April. Until then, you can read all your FX news at ft.com/fx
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With investors focused on geopolitical risk and evidence of a Chinese slowdown, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Bhanu Baweja, head of emerging market cross asset strategy at UBS, how to explain the relative stability in emerging markets currencies. Also, what are the knock-on effects of China curbing carry trade in the renminbi - and what is up with the Chilean peso?
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With analysts predicting a modest improvement in the US labour market data due on Friday, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Paul Lambert, head of currency at Insight Investment, how the soft dollar is affecting foreign exchange markets; why the Ukraine crisis had little impact on major currencies; and how investors can navigate a world of low volatility.
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With the greenback trading at a two-week low against the euro, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Matt Cobon, head of rates and currencies at Threadneedle Investments, why the consensus bet on dollar strength is not yet paying off. Also, how should currency markets interpret the Bank of England's latest set of economic forecasts - and what to make of the latest twist in the fortunes of the Aussie?
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With the sell-off in EM currencies deepening, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Koon Chow of Barclays Capital, what is driving investors’ behaviour, how currency weakness will affect other assets - and which countries might welcome depreciation.
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With sterling at a 2 1/2 year high against the dollar, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks John Normand, currency strategist at JP Morgan, what to expect next from the Bank of England's forward guidance. Also, how can investors differentiate between commodity currencies, and is China's ever-appreciating renminbi set for a fall?
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With hedge funds seizing on dismal jobs data, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Geoff Yu, currency strategist at UBS, whether the Aussie's slide is set to continue. Also, how will the theme of deflation play out in currency markets - and is Turkey now in real trouble?
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With dollar bulls relishing the start of Federal Reserve tapering, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Michael Sneyd, foreign currency strategist at BNP Paribas, what could throw their predictions off course. Also: what will the year ahead bring for the euro, and is the Canadian dollar set on a downward trend?
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Sterling has rallied on the Bank of England's announcement that it no longer sees a need to subsidise mortgage lending. Valentin Marinov, strategist at Citigroup, joins currencies correspondent Delphine Strauss to discuss whether this amounts to a tightening of monetary policy. Also, what should investors expect from next week's ECB meeting; and how will the Swedish krona perform as the central bank steps up its fight against deflation?
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With investors alert to any hint of further action from the ECB, Delphine Strauss is joined by Steven Saywell, foreign currency strategist at BNP Paribas, to discuss the outlook for the euro, the effects of Japanese pension fund reform - and the implications of stalling growth in China's vast foreign exchange reserves
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As Janet Yellen gives evidence to the Senate Banking Committee, Delphine Strauss is joined by Jane Foley, foreign currency strategist at Rabobank, to ask what investors are watching for from the nominee to chair the Fed. Also, is the good news on economic recovery already priced into the pound, and can Sweden's central bank act against deflation?
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Jose Wynne, foreign currency strategist at Barclays, joins Delphine Strauss to discuss what would prompt a rally in the dollar, whether the euro's strength is sustainable, and the relative attractions of the Aussie and New Zealand dollar.
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With the euro near a two year high against the dollar, Delphine Strauss asks Chris Turner, foreign currency strategist at ING, whether the European Central Bank is likely to take any action; how long the rally in emerging markets currencies might continue; and what is driving trade in the Scandinavian currencies.
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Delphine Strauss is joined by Simon Derrick, foreign currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon to ask whether the US shutdown will have a lasting effect on the dollar, whether the rally in the Aussie will continue and what we should read into Beijing's decision to allow the renminbi to reach a record high
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The impasse in Washington has left forex investors unsure which way to turn, as they weigh the effects of the government shutdown against the prospects for a delay in tapering. FT currencies correspondent Delphine Strauss is joined by Ian Stannard, foreign currency strategist at Morgan Stanley to discuss how the market will handle the uncertainties, and how much longer we can expect strength in the euro and sterling to continue.
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With the US government shutdown weighing on the dollar, FT currencies correspondent Delphine Strauss is joined by Derek Halpenny, European head of global market research at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. Can forex markets remain this calm if the debt talks drag on into next week? How much higher can the euro go? And with the yen's weakness apparently set to continue, what changes in behaviour might we see from Japanese institutional and retail investors?
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As investors absorb the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to keep its bond-buying programme steady, Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, joins Delphine Strauss to discuss how the delay in tapering will play out in FX markets. And if investors now think the Bank of England will be the first to tighten, what's in store for sterling?
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As investors continue to play a guessing game about when the Federal Reserve will start tapering its bond buying programme, Geoff Yu, foreign currency strategist at UBS joins Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent to discuss the key upcoming data releases likely to move the market. And across the pond, how is sterling being affected by UK economic data?
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After a week of unprecedented forward guidance from the ECB and BoE, what’s in store for the pound and euro? Peter Kinsella, foreign currency strategist at Commerzbank, joins Alice Ross to discuss
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The FT's currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to head of spot fx trading at BNP Paribas Bob de Groot about why the dollar bulls are out in force. Plus, will the arrival of Mark Carney as Bank of England governor encourage investors to short the pound, and what should we expect from the European Central Bank this week?
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Will the US dollar continue to gain against other currencies after the US Federal Reserve said it plans to buy fewer bonds later this year? Plus, what's in store for the floundering Australian and New Zealand dollars, and why is sterling holding up well in the current market turmoil? Alice Ross, currencies correspondent, talks to Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
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It's been a month of huge moves for the dollar-yen pair. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting in June, Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent, asks Shahab Jalinoos, FX strategist with UBS, what he expects from the talks as well as whether the Swiss National Bank will act to weaken its currency.
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What effect has the weakness of the Japanese yen had on Japan’s major trading partners in Asia? Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent, is joined by Koon Chow, head of EM fixed income strategy at Barclays for an Asia currency special, to look at the Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit and the renminbi.
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Is the recent sell-off in emerging market currencies a response to suggestions the US Federal Reserve will taper its bond buying programme, or a reflection of underlying economic fundamentals? Ilan Solot, emerging market currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss
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After a week of jittery currency markets Kerry Agiasotis of Western Union Business Solutions joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss where the markets will go from here. Also, the growing internationalisation of the renminbi, and how are Japan’s massive momentary easing plans affecting other Asian currencies?
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With the Australian and New Zealand dollars hitting multi-month lows against the US dollar, Elsa Lignos, currency strategist at RBC Capital joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the mood on commodity currencies. Also, is central bank intervention likely in the Swiss franc and the continued weakening of the Japanese yen.
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In a week in which the dollar has finally broken through the 100 barrier against the yen, currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Ian Stannard, foreign currency strategist at Morgan Stanley to discuss the regional impact of the weaker yen and the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by trading partners.
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This week currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank to talk about the consequences of the ECB rate cut and Mario Draghi’s comments that the bank’s deposit rate could be cut further. They also discuss whether another round of quantitative easing will be necessary in the UK, and if further falls in the euro will cause investors to see the Norwegian and Swedish krone as a haven
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With several central bank meetings in the week ahead, FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Derek Halpenny, head of European forex research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. What impact would there be on the euro if the ECB cut headline interest rates on Thursday? What does it mean for the dollar if the Fed provides guidance on how much longer QE will be needed? And why is the Swiss National Bank unlikely to raise the floor at which it buys euros to weaken the franc?
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This week, currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Kit Juckes, global strategist at Société Générale to discuss the correlations between commodity prices, global equities and the so-called commodity currencies of Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They also take a look at which emerging market currencies are the most sensitive to falling commodity prices, and predictions for the yen trade over the next few weeks
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The Bank of Japan's bond-buying scheme is continuing to ripple through currency markets. Aroop Chatterjee, US forex strategist at Barclays, joins FT's currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss what to expect from this week's Ministry of Finance data, the dollar's rise in line with US equities, and factors influencing the euro.
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Valentin Marinov, foreign currency strategist at Citigroup, joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the recent sell off of the Japanese yen, after the Bank of Japan announced sweeping measures to drag the country out of deflation. They also talk about lacklustre trade in the euro and the pound’s recent resilience
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Paul Lambert from Insight Investment joins Alice Ross to discuss the impact of the crisis in Cyprus on the single currency, the Bank of Japan under a new governor, and whether the market has given up on the Swiss franc haven trade
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George Saravelos, foreign currency analyst at Deutsche Bank, joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the euro's indifference to the crisis in Cyprus, whether there will be a knock-on effect on other currencies and the impact for sterling of the Bank of England's new mandate
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Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou from JPMorgan's Flows & Liquidity team joins David Keohane of FT Alphaville to look at the consequences of the dollar's strength, how the size of the ECB's balance sheet affects the single currency and whether the halt in the yen's slide can be attributed to foreign investors while domestic investors wait for the expectation of Abenomics to turn into reality.
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Kathleen Brooks from Forex.com joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the rise in the euro, expectations of more QE in Britain, and whether this year will be one of a strong dollar as the Fed looks set to withdraw monetary easing.
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Chris Turner, foreign currency strategist at ING, joins Alice Ross, FT Currencies Correspondent to discuss the outlook ahead of rate setting decisions from the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. Plus, would appreciation of the real actually be good for Brazil’s economy?
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Bob Savage of hedge fund FX Concepts joins Alice Ross, currencies correspondent, to discuss the beating that sterling has taken, when the Fed will end QE and the implications for the dollar, and the impact of the election in Italy.
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Georgette Boele, currency strategist at ABN Amro, joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss whether it is fair to say countries such as Japan are engaging in competitive attempts to devalue, what the latest economic data mean for the euro and the implications of the hawkish signals the Swedish Riksbank has been sending
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Geoff Kendrick, Nomura currency strategist, and Alice Ross, currencies correspondent, discuss the implications of the euro’s sell-off for ECB policy, the prospects for the Japanese yen ahead of the G20 meeting in Moscow and the effect of Mark Carney’s parliamentary grilling on sterling
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Geoff Yu, UBS currency strategist, joins Alice Ross to discuss how much higher the euro will rise, the outlook for the Swiss franc which has recovered following a big sell-off in January, and the build in bearish momentum on sterling.
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Alice Ross, currencies correspondent, and Richard Conyers, the chief investment officer at Harmonic Capital Partners, discuss the reemergence of currency wars, the possibility of intervention in Latin America and the outlook for the euro.
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Alice Ross, currencies correspondent and guest Nigel Sillis, director of fixed income and currency research at Barings, discuss market expectations that the new Japanese government will raise its inflation target and weaken the yen, the outlook for the British pound and whether the currency wars are set to erupt again?
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With the euro close to nine-month highs on signals from the European Central Bank that interest rates are set to hold steady, Alice Ross, currencies correspondent, asks Michael Sneyd, foreign currency analyst at BNP Paribas, whether the rally is set to continue. Also, what are the chances of more intervention in the franc from the Swiss National Bank, and where next for the Yen?
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The euro has defied expectations, ending the year much higher than predicted. Alice Ross, the FT's currencies correspondent, asks Jose Wynne, head of foreign exchange research at Barclays, what effect the ECB's Outright Monetary Transaction scheme would have on the euro if implemented next year. Also under discussion is the outlook for the dollar if a deal is reached on the fiscal cliff, and whether the yen will finally weaken.
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Investors have been aggressively shorting the Japanese yen in recent weeks in anticipation of a more dovish approach from the Bank of Japan. However, Adam Cole, foreign currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets thinks that these traders are heading for disappointment. He joins currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the effect of the Japanese elections on the currency and whether investors are falling out of love with the Swiss franc, following inaction from the Swiss National Bank.
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As debate over the fiscal cliff continues and doubts linger over the US’s economic recovery, the market is unsure how to react. Clive Dennis, head of currencies at Schroders, thinks there's a high chance that the US will go over the fiscal cliff. He talks to currencies correspondent Alice Ross about the impact of this scenario, and the release of payroll figures, on the greenback. Also under discussion is the euro, which is back below $1.30, on expectations of an interest-rate cut by the ECB early next year.
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Despite the threat of a sovereign downgrade and concerns over UK growth, Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura, tells FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross that there's still hope for sterling. Also under discussion is whether demand for the pound as a haven in the eurozone will continue, and the Aussie dollar ahead of a probable interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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As Japan prepares for an early election on December 16, the yen has come under pressure, falling against the dollar. Will this trend continue into next year? Ian Stannard, head of European FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, joins Alphaville reporter David Keohane to debate the effect of domestic policy and trade on the yen, as well as its attractiveness as a funding currency. Also under discussion is the euro's outlook for the next 12 months, after showing notable resilience in 2012.
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With event risk affecting currencies, the concern is not what you sell, but what you buy, according to Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon. He joins Alphaville reporter David Keohane to discuss which safe havens investors can retreat to, considering the pressures on the dollar from the fiscal cliff and the impact of upcoming elections on the yen. Also under discussion is whether foreign exchange reserves will continue to grow in the next year.
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In a week dominated by the fallout from the US presidential election, and the Chinese leadership transition FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments about the outlook for the US dollar and Chinese renminbi.
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Following the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme in September, there were predictions of a rise in appetite for emerging markets currencies, yet this has failed to materialise. Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at Soc Gen, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to talk about current sentiment towards EM currencies. Also under discussion is the rise of the Mexican peso, and whether its popularity is shortlived.
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Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the pound, which has risen after higher than expected UK growth figures, as well as whether the Bank of Japan will launch a full scale currency intervention at its upcoming meeting.
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David Bloom, global head of FX strategy at HSBC, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the future of forex trading as the currency runes become increasingly hard to read and investors shy away from the market, as well as the connection between the euro's performance and a Spanish bailout.
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Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross, to discuss talk of a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen, and how the Aussie dollar, which has been suffering in recent weeks, will react to the latest batch of Chinese economic data.
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Chris Turner, FX strategist at ING, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross, to discuss whether the upcoming International Monetary Fund meeting in Tokyo will affect sentiment on haven currencies such as the dollar and yen, and what's in store for the Canadian dollar after its recent popularity among traders.
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Geoffrey Yu, foreign exchange strategist at UBS, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the fallout on the currencies markets from the Spanish budget – and whether a bailout is now more or less likely – as well as when the focus will swing back towards Greece. Also, what is the QE3 effect on the commodities currencies?
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Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC markets, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the likelihood of a new outbreak of the currency wars and why Japan, not Brazil, has most to complain about from more quantitative easing in the US.
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Peter Kinsella, senior currency strategist at Commerzbank, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to assess the impact of more quantitative easing from the US federal reserve on the currency markets and is the worst now past for the euro?
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Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, joins Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent, to discuss how the European Central Bank’s confirmation of plans to buy government bonds in peripheral markets is supporting the euro – even if no actual action has been taken. Also, is the Federal Reserve likely to introduce more quantitative easing and just what is going on with the Swiss franc?
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This week Alice Ross, the FT’s currencies correspondent, is joined by Javier Corominas, head of research and fx strategy at Record Currency Management, to discuss what’s driving the pound and euro weakness as the Draghi effect fades. They also look at the strength of the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen.
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This week our currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Kit Juckes from Société Générale to discuss what's going on behind the scenes with the Swiss franc, what next for the euro following the recent ECB meeting and the strength of the Australian dollar
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Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, talks to Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent about why intervention from the Bank of Japan into the yen is unlikely despite the currency’s strength and why whilst the ECB’s bond buying programme is likely to restart, QE3 from the Fed is unlikely in August.
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Matt Cobon, fixed income manager and FX specialist at Threadneedle Asset Management talks to Alice Ross, FT currency correspondent, about why low volatility in the market means traders are taking risk off the table, why the Australian dollar looks overpriced in relation to its economic fundamentals and why all eyes are on the Swiss National Bank.
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Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon and Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent look at the week ahead in forex. Is the movement of funds out of the euro is a sign of flight, or the possible beginning of a carry trade in euros? Why the US dollar is seeing increased flows, and is the ECB the most accommodating of the central banks?
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In the FT’s look at the week ahead in forex, Elsa Lignos, senior G10 currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets tells Alice Ross, the FT currencies correspondent, why the ECB rate cut has sent the euro south why sterling isn’t a true haven currency.
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John Normand, global head of FX strategy at JPMorgan, talks to FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross about the prospects for the euro following the EU summit and the outlook for emerging market currencies
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This week the FT's currency correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Humayun Shahryar, chief executive of hedge fund Auvest Capital Management, to discuss the Fed's decision not to introduce a third round of quantitative easing, the difficulty of trading the euro amid the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, and opportunities for investing in emerging market currencies
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This week the FT's currency correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Humayun Sharyar, chief executive of hedge fund Auvest Capital Management, to discuss the Fed's decision not to introduce a third round of quantitative easing, the difficulty of trading the euro amid the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, and opportunities for investing in emerging market currencies
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Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of FX strategy at UBS, joins the FT's currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss how the euro might drive currency markets in the wake of the Greek elections, the likelihood of a new round of QE3 in the US in light of recent bad economic data and the case for further monetary easing in the UK
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Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com talks to FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross about the prospects for more – and different - QE in the USA, why action from the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen is unlikely, and why the Australian dollar will stay in tune with risk aversion.
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Valentin Marinov, director of FX strategy at Citi, talks to FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross about currency interventions, looking at why the Swiss National Bank will keep defending the Swiss franc’s peg with the euro in the face of increasing money flow into the haven currency, the prospects for intervention in the yen, and the outlook for the euro.
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FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to Steven Saywell, head of FX currency strategy in Europe at BNP Paribas about why he thinks a Greek exit is unlikely and remains bullish on the euro, as well as a look ahead to the US non-farm payroll data and the prospects for more quantitative easing in the US and UK.
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FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to global head of FX strategy at HSBC David Bloom about the pressures on the euro and why he is forecasting a rise in value, the Norwegian krone’s haven status and why the pound is doing well.
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Currencies correspondent Alice Ross explores the trends driving the global currencies market, this week focusing on sterling’s status as a haven currency, why the euro is still strong against the dollar and how a further rate cut in Australia will impact the carry trade.This week’s guest is Paul Robson, senior currency analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland.
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