Everything is not always what it seems. We prefer simple explanations even when that gives us a false understanding of complex issues. I like to repeat a saying popularized in this country by Mark Twain. “There are lies, damn lies and statistics”. Our moment in history has a greater reverence for statistics than Twain could have imagined. The issue is taking the time to look at what is being presented.
As an example, let’s look at television. The common refrain is that television is dying. Broadcast network viewing is down. People are cable cutting, leaving cable and satellite television in greater numbers. Seems pretty obvious, right?
What got me started thinking about this was a recent snark-fest by the director general of the BBC, Tony Hall, aimed at the Netflix show “The Crown”. Hall made a big deal out of the fact that ithad “only” seven million viewers despite its big budget and promotional buzz. He compared it to the lower budgets and larger audiences for the broadcast network’s shows. What’s ridiculous is the apples and oranges nature of the comparison. The potential audiences are so different that it makes the comparison useless.
But that’s not the only useless statistic floating around television. Yes, people are not watching TV the old fashioned way as much (unless you’re in the 65+ category). They are watching streaming video. But what still makes up the largest percentage of WHAT is being watched? The programs from the television networks. Television programming remains the largest portion of our weekly media usage. Smartphone app/web viewed media is second, and somewhat to my surprise, terrestrial radio, that’s the old school radio, is the third largest segment of media usage.
A recent survey in the United Kingdom may shed some light on this as well. Almost 1 out of 3 viewers there use streaming as their primary way to watch television. 63% of younger viewers believe they get better value through streaming over traditional delivery. I would expect the numbers in the U.S. to be close to that as well.
Which brings us back to the original question. How is television doing? Given that the definition of what television is has changed (Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime? Television or not? They are trying to compete with and create product modeled on the older technology), it becomes more and more difficult to set our parameters for success. If we set aside the question of how the programming is delivered, then it looks like the reports of television’s death, much like the rumor that swirled around Mark Twain, has been greatly exaggerated.