📌 Key Themes This Week

• 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.
• 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.
• 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.
• 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.”
• 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.
• 💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.

📈 Company Results & Market Moves * 🏫 ADvTech*

+ Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.
+ Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.
+ Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.
+ Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.

• 🚢 Grindrod

  • Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.
  • Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.
  • Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.

  • 🛢️ Sasol

  • Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).

  • Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.
  • Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.

  • ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)

  • Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.

  • 🪖 Rheinmetall

  • German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.

  • Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.

🌐 Macro Watch * 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%. * 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure. * 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster. * 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.

📌 Quick Hits * 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%). * 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy. * 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating. * 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase. * 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.

🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024 💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app

👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.

Simon Brown

• I hold ungeared positions.

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