🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665
📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
🌍 This week in markets * Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️ * Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮💨 * Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿ * A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉
🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle * 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations * 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included * The hyperscalers: + Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️ * The "shovel sellers": + Nvidia, ASML, TSMC 🧑🏭🪓 * Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light * Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉
"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."
📊 Stocks & charts * Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress * Nvidia and ASML still look healthy on the charts ✅ * Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏 * 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀
🤖 Software shock & AI disruption * Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure * New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬 * Reality check: + Niche software may struggle + Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace
🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies * Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k * Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️ * Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥 * Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️
🌐 The debasement trade * Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries * China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉 * Key takeaway: + This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢 * Governments reduce debt via: + Inflation + Currency weakness
🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers * Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected * Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁 * Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦 + Forward PE near 10 + Analysts broadly constructive
⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard * Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes* * The commodity may be in the ground – but: + Extraction is complex + Capital is hard to raise + Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧 * Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢 * Even experienced operators fail
📢 Events & deadlines * Power Hour – 19 February 🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank + Tax-free investing beyond TFSA + ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28 * Important reminder ⏰ + Many providers have early contribution deadlines + Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute
👉 More info: justonelap.com/events
🙌 Wrapping up * CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming * AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven * Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving * Stay cautious, stay curious
"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️
Simon Brown
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