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๐ŸŒ Worldwide Markets โ€“ Episode 658 ๐Ÿ“… 26 November 2025 ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Hosted by Simon Brown ๐Ÿ’ผ Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

๐Ÿ”ฅ This Week's Big Themes * ๐Ÿ“Š JSE 10-year returns โ€” miners dominate! * ๐Ÿ’ฝ Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction * ๐Ÿฅ‡ Harmony goes big on copper * ๐Ÿ› ๏ธ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery * ๐Ÿ“ฆ Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks * ๐Ÿง  Standard Bank launches new AI structured product * ๐ŸŽฏ Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

๐Ÿญ Invicta Results โ€” A Deep Value SA Inc Play * ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia. * ๐ŸŒ Tariffs hit their China โ†’ US shipments. * ๐Ÿ’ฐ Valuation extremely cheap:

+ PE
+ Dividend yield > 3%
+ Price-to-book: 0.7
  • ๐Ÿšง SA's weak GDP is the drag โ€” but a recovery to 1.8% โ†’ 2% โ†’ 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.
  • โš™๏ธ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

๐Ÿฅข Prosus / Naspers / Tencent โ€” Cash Flow Turns Positive * ๐Ÿ’ต First positive free cash flow ever โ†’ +$59m vs -$104m. * ๐Ÿ’ฐ Billions of $ in cash reserves. * ๐Ÿ” Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model. * ๐Ÿงง Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

+ ๐ŸŽฎ Tencent Games
+ ๐ŸŽต Tencent Music
+ ๐Ÿ“บ Online ads
+ ๐Ÿ“ฑ WeChat ecosystem
+ ๐ŸŽฅ Epic Games stake
+ ๐ŸŽž๏ธ TikTok-style platforms
  • ๐Ÿ”„ Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

๐Ÿ’ป Nvidia โ€” Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls? * ๐Ÿ“ˆ Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance โ€” classic Nvidia. * ๐Ÿค” But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility. * ๐Ÿญ Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon. * โš ๏ธ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage โ†’ still "B-grade". * ๐Ÿ“‰ Technically:

+ Support at ~$180
+ Next support ~$166
+ Further support ~$150s
  • ๐ŸŽˆ Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" โ€” but bubbles go UP before they pop.

  • ๐Ÿ“‰ Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

    • Only Meta sits below (-10%).
    • Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).
    • Amazon also soft (+5%).

๐Ÿฅ‡ Harmony โ€” From Gold to Copper Giant? * ๐Ÿช™ Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia. * ๐Ÿงฑ Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50โ€“$5.25). * โ›๏ธ Harmony is shifting from pure gold โ†’ gold + copper, diversifying earnings. * ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

+ โœ”๏ธ Good blend of cyclical exposures
+ โœ”๏ธ Some risk hedging between metals
  • โ›๏ธ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier โ†’ copper is a logical hedge.
  • ๐Ÿ”Œ Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

๐Ÿง  Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!) * ๐Ÿงบ Basket:

+ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Tech (NASDAQ)
+ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China Tech (KWEB)

  • ๐Ÿ’ธ Auto-call feature:

    • Year 1: If both indices are positive โ†’ 16% payout
    • If not, each subsequent year with positivity โ†’ 16% per year
    • Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

    • ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Capital protection:

    • 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

    • ๐Ÿ’ต Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)
    • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Closing: 3 December 2025
    • ๐Ÿ“ Available via OST or your stockbroker.

๐Ÿ“ˆ 10-Year JSE Winners โ€” The Miners Dominate ๐Ÿฅ‡ Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends) * ๐Ÿฅ‡ Harmony Gold โ€” 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!) * ๐Ÿฅˆ Gold Fields โ€” 37% * ๐Ÿฅ‰ Kumba Iron Ore โ€” 33% (42% incl. dividends) * โš’๏ธ Exxaro โ€” 28% + 12% dividends * โš™๏ธ Northam Platinum โ€” 28.5% * ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Argent โ€” 27% (first non-miner) * ๐Ÿ’ผ African Rainbow Capital / Valterra โ€” 25% * ๐Ÿฆ Capitec โ€” 22.5% + dividends โ†’ 24% total * ๐Ÿ› ๏ธ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye โ€” strong ~19%+ * ๐ŸŒ Datatec โ€” 19% + 17% dividends โ†’ 37%

๐Ÿ“‰ Big Losers (per-year declines) * ๐Ÿช“ Eskom (ELI / ACO) โ€” -26% * ๐Ÿ“ฆ Nampak โ€” -18% * ๐Ÿ›๏ธ City Lodge โ€” -14.5% * ๐Ÿงช ArcelorMittal โ€” -14% * ๐Ÿ’Š Aspen โ€” -10% * ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Sasol โ€” -10% * ๐Ÿ˜๏ธ Balwin โ€” -7% * ๐Ÿ” Famous Brands โ€” -7% * ๐Ÿงฑ PPC โ€” -5% * ๐Ÿ›’ Pick n Pay โ€” -5% * ๐Ÿฅ Netcare โ€” -4.8% * ๐Ÿงบ Woolworths โ€” 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

๐Ÿ“Š Top 40 โ€” 10-Year Benchmark Performance * ๐Ÿ“ˆ 118% total return over 10 years * ๐Ÿ“‰ CAGR: 8.2% (โ‰ˆ10.5% incl. dividends) * ๐Ÿ“Œ Best period: 11.6% (2019) * ๐Ÿ“Œ Worst: ~3% during crisis * ๐ŸŽฏ Real return (CPI ~5%): โ‰ˆ7% โ€” very respectable.

๐Ÿ“ฃ Call to Action ๐Ÿ’ฌ Tell us in the comments:

  • Which 10-year winners do you own?
  • Which stats shocked you most?
  • What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

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