You know I prefer to have solid data to back up my assertions, but in this one special case I have decided for the benefit of your mental health to throw caution to the wind and get ahead of the data.

The temptation to parcel out every poll this past week and next will be high (and the clicks they provoke too tempting) for them not to do so, but I want to make something crystal clear: it will take until heading into the DNC in 3 weeks for the polls to have amassed enough data to tell us how much the dynamics of the race have changed by giving the American people the ONE thing they wanted: a younger candidate.

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If you are surprised by the way Democrats have rallied around Harris I will tell you that Joe Biden pulling a George Washington to walk away from power set the bar and the rest of us have answered the call, washing away what was weeks of debate about the best replacement nominee in a tsunami of enthusiastic endorsements for Harris, the one best positioned to inherit Biden’s campaign organization.

Thus, we wipe away the two things making me ill since debate night: the losses of our two main advantages in the the 2024 cycle: party unity and organization in the swing states.

Hence I have spent the last week rolling around town with a shit kicking grin on my face. In short, I feel like a pardoned death row inmate, and so should you.

All the old polling on Harris’ favorability ratings and the head to head ballot test against Trump became less than worthless once she was elevated to the top of the ticket. Forecasters and aggregators will likely blend this new data into the old, a big methodical mistake.

My next post to you will present data post switch and will give us a picture of where Harris AND down ballot Democrats stand heading into the DNC convention, which I am now over the moon about attending.

We’re NOT Going Back

Rachel

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