Macro Bytes: Recent Episodes
abrdn
Join our hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle as they guide you through the world of economics, politics and markets. Each week expert guests are invited to discuss the latest events impacting the macro environment and what this means for investors. Get in touch - macrobytes@abrdn.com
Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s Prime Minister on 20 July and promises a new style of governance - “Manchesterism”. Luke and Lizzy discuss what Manchesterism means in practice, whether devolution is a credible growth strategy, how a Burnham government might navigate financial markets, and how tight fiscal constraints could ultimately limit both its policy agenda and political fortunes.
Many economists and investors try to predict the business cycle in order to time their investments into financial markets. In this episode, Paul and Luke speak to Tyler Goodspeed, author of “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It”, who rejects much conventional wisdom on the business cycle, arguing instead that recessions are the result of external shocks that cannot be predicted. They discuss why humans are pre-disposed to see patterns in economic data, the usefulness or otherwise of business cycle timing indicators, and the likelihood of the current energy shock causing a recession.
Most central banks started the year preparing to cut interest rates further. Then geopolitics intervened. In this episode Paul and Luke unpack how the Iran-driven energy shock has upended rate expectations, why different central banks are responding in different ways, and what that means for inflation and growth. We also tackle two key market questions: what will new Fed chair Kevin Warsh do with the balance sheet, and can equities stay resilient as inflation spikes and yields rise?
Near earth orbit is increasingly a site of economic activity, and a domain of great power competition. Paul and Luke are joined by Hannah Lee, Thematic Investment Researcher at JP Morgan, to discuss how the collapse in launch costs has opened up a wide range of commercial use cases for space, the prospect of placing data centres, semi-conductor fabrication, and pharmaceutical development in orbit, and the way in which space has become a strategic military domain.
The UK local and devolved regional elections are shaping up to be rough for the incumbent Labour party. Speculation about political leadership change is likely to increase as a result. If there is a change of UK Prime Minister (and Chancellor), who could it be, what would be the process, and most importantly for Macro Bytes, what are the economic and market implications? Paul and Lizzy lay out the runners-and-riders, and the possible policy changes across tax-and-spend, regulation, Europe, and defence policy.
The release of China’s Deepseek R1 model last year, which rivalled many US large language models but was trained at a fraction of the cost, seemed to kick-off a new realm of competition between the US and China. Luke is joined by Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen, to discuss the nature of the AI race between the US and China, who is currently winning, whether government strategies around things like export controls and energy policy can help determine who the winner might ultimately be, and whether even framing the contest as a “race” with a single “winner” is the right way to think about how the technology and policy is likely to evolve.
The Iran war is now in its 5th week, longer than many in the market seem to have been expecting, and it continues to be a source of significant asset price volatility. Paul and Luke are joined by Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment at interactive investor, to consider the market and investor reaction to the conflict. They discuss the significance of the oil price as both barometer and transmission mechanism of the conflict, the performance of EM vs DM markets, investor interest in gold, where diversification can be found in a geopolitical crisis, and whether retail investors can be better contrarians at market turning points.
The war in Iran and the wider Middle East has dealt a significant blow to asset prices. Paul, Luke and Lizzy look at the US and Israel’s war aims and examine why Iran’s response has been larger than expected. They go on to consider what asset prices appear to be pricing in about the likely outcome of the conflict, and what this could mean for growth, inflation and interest rates. They also reflect on how US policy fits within Trump’s broader foreign policy agenda.
The war in Ukraine is now four years old, and the nature of modern warfighting - and Europe’s defence needs - has shifted dramatically as a result. Lizzy and Paul talk to John Ridge and Erin Hallock of the NATO Innovation Fund, a multi‑government‑backed venture capital fund, about the accelerating pace of innovation on the battlefield, why governments must procure and adopt defence technology far faster to turn late‑stage prototypes into scalable capability, and how the Fund is finding and funding early‑stage defence, security and resilience businesses.
2026 has started with a flurry of political shocks. Luke and Lizzy talk to Jens Larsen, Practice Head of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, about the structurally elevated geopolitical volatility that investors now face and why this matter to markets. They discuss the fundamental drivers of heightened political risk, including the end of the unipolar moment and the re-emergence of great power competition, the break down in operating consensus that underpinned domestic politics until recently, the chance of US military action in Iran, and whether UK fiscal policy will change significantly under a potential new prime minister and Chancellor.
With President Trump threatening fresh tariffs on various economies, trade wars are back in focus.
Moreover, the risk of the trade war spreading to a capital war has become more pressing. The EU has been considering activating its “Anti-Coercion Instrument” in response to US threats to Greenland, which could see services trade and capital flows targeted.
Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss how a capital war could be the next stage of the global trade war, where the EU may have leverage over the US in such a conflict, the prospect of European institutions dumping US treasury holdings, and whether the US capital account surplus is really a chokepoint trading partners could exploit.
The recent US intervention in Venezuela is a vivid demonstration of the new so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ asserting complete US supremacy in the western hemisphere. Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss the historical context of America’s new foreign policy stance and what it might mean for various neighbours including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, and Greenland. They also consider potential read across for Iran, Russia-Ukraine, and China-Taiwan, and whether it makes other conflicts more likely.
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the Aberdeen Investments research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2026 – including the outlook for monetary policy under a new Fed chair, whether China can tackle its deflation problem, and the risk of an AI bubble bursting.
The much-anticipated UK budget has finally been announced. Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the economic and market implications of the tax rises, spending increases, and higher fiscal headroom. Financial markets liked what they saw in the budget, but the team highlight the backloaded nature of the tax increases, question markets around future spending plans, and the possibility of change at the top of UK politics in 2026.
The world isn’t deglobalising, it’s fracturing – splitting into US and China blocs, along manufacturing, technological, and financial lines. Paul speaks to Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. Paul and Neil talk about what the hyper-globalisation consensus that economic interdependence was stabilising got wrong, how the return of superpower rivalry will force other countries to pick a side, and the ways investors can navigate this new economic and geopolitical environment.
US export controls on high-end semiconductor chips, and Chinese control over rare earth supply, are just the most recent examples of major economies weaponising chokepoints in the global economy. Paul and Luke speak to Edward Fishman, a former US State Department sanctions official, Colombia University professor, and author of “Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War”, about the US’s and increasingly China’s control over these chokepoints, how financial and legal chokepoints arise out of the structure of the modern global economy, and how major powers use chokepoints to pursue their geopolitical interests.
France has been cycling through Prime Ministers, as the government struggles to pass a budget through a divided parliament. Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about France’s political and fiscal challenges, what’s unique about France’s problems compared to other ageing and indebted Western democracies, and what a potential victory for the extremes of French politics at the 2027 Presidential election would mean for the economy and markets.
With the US Federal Reserve under intense political pressure and the labour market at an inflection point, understanding how the FOMC might respond to shocks is critical for financial markets. Paul and Luke talk to Professor Tara Sinclair of George Washington University about her groundbreaking working paper FOMC in Silico, which uses AI personas to model the Fed’s decision-making process. They also explore how AI can augment decision-making more broadly and assess its impact on the labour market.
The UK Budget is about two months away. The Chancellor is once again facing the prospect of her fiscal rules being breached, and the likely need to tighten fiscal policy. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, senior political economist at Aberdeen, to discuss the Chancellor’s tough choices, potential tax increases, and the state of the UK economy more broadly.
The independence of the Federal Reserve is under sustained attack from the Trump administration. But despite the totemic significance of the Fed to the global financial system, markets so far seem relatively sanguine. Luke and Paul discuss the history of independent central banks, why they matter so much to the economy, and what the journey to full fiscal dominance might look like. They also talk to Aaron Rock and Max Macmillan, senior fixed income and macro investors at Aberdeen, about how they think about monetary policy independence and whether markets should be more worried about fiscal dominance.
Stablecoins are digital assets often tied to the value of a fiat currency, such as the dollar. They have the potential to reshape the financial and economic order.In this episode, Luke and Paul discuss what they are, how they may affect the ways in which we pay for goods and services, how they are being regulated and what it might mean economically. In the spotlight are public sector debt dynamics, the status of the US dollar, how central banks set monetary policy and whether stablecoins pose risks to financial stability.
US macro hasn’t taken the summer off. Between tariff threats and trade deals, slowing growth and massive jobs data revisions, and Trump firing the head of the statistics authority and getting an early pick for a new Fed “shadow Chair”, there’s a lot to catch up on. Luke and Paul explain what all this means for the economic outlook, markets, and monetary policy.
Infrastructure is one of the foundations on which economies are built. It’s essential for meeting the needs of growing and ageing populations, it has a role to play in the defence build-outs that are required in a more volatile geopolitical environment, and its increasingly critical to the energy and climate transitions. New research from Aberdeen suggests at least $64 trillion will need to be spent on infrastructure globally over the next 25 years. Paul Diggle is joined by Robert Gilhooly and Sameer Amin to discuss how “infrastructure gaps” can be identified and quantified, how stretched governments can afford to build infrastructure, and examples of infrastructure projects that Aberdeen has helped fund.
Read the research here: How large are global infrastructure needs? | Aberdeen Investments
The Trump administration is pursuing a significant fiscal expansion with its “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. But with long-term bond yields rising, and Section 899 potentially making the US a less attractive place to invest, investor appetite to finance the US deficit may be waning. Paul and Luke discuss the size of the deficit increase, whether tariff revenue can offset tax cuts, and what Elon Musk leaving DOGE means for fiscal policy.
The Argentinian economy has a history going back decades of chronically low growth, high inflation, and successive crises. However, President Javier Milei’s “shock therapy” of fiscal spending cuts, peso devaluation, and an IMF package, appear to be turning things around. The economy has returned to growth; inflation, while still high, has fallen sharply; and Argentina is gradually returning to international capital markets. Paul and Luke speak to Tettey Addy, emerging market analyst at Aberdeen, about Milei’s unexpected successes with economic orthodoxy, and the challenges that still lie ahead.
The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning with the UK. So does this mean that economic and market concerns about the trade war were overblown? Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Bob Gilhooly about why US-China decoupling is still a long term trend, what next for tariff levels, and how much progress the US administration is making on its other priorities including tax cuts.
The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and reserve currency. However, Trump’s tariffs, a possible growth slowdown, and deeper institutional disfunction, could all endanger aspects of this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether US exceptionalism is over, whether the US is becoming a structurally less attractive destination for capital, and if the global dollar standard is over.
President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new global trading system? And given that most investors’ worst case tariff scenario has transpired, what other major shocks could these moves catalyse? Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the design of the reciprocal tariff regime, the possible economic impact on the US, and how things might get better – or worse.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfare cuts the government has announced, how vulnerable the UK fiscal position is to tariffs and other shocks, and the possibility of future tax increases.
US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew speaks to James McCann about the sudden deterioration in economic sentiment and how reliable this is as guide to future growth, the current state of play on tariff policy, the impact of DOGE on the job market, and how interest rates might revolve in response to the various shocks hitting the economy.
The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany faces profound economic and geopolitical headwinds, amid a contracting industrial sector and a chaotic European security situation. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about Merz’s economic agenda, whether debt brake reform is possible, and if this is the last-chance saloon for the German mainstream.
Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit.
UK growth and investment have almost certainly been lower, and inflation higher, than otherwise. But as President Trump threatens to tear up the global trading system including targeting the EU with tariffs, and European regulation risks stifling the growth benefits of AI, Paul and Luke discuss how the lasting economic consequences of Brexit are still playing out.
Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Bob Gilhooly, and Lizzy Galbraith from the abrdn economics team about the thinking behind President Trump’s tariff strategy, the economic and monetary policy impacts, and what this all tells us about Trump’s broader agenda.
The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump’s policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want to see a weaker dollar to boost domestic manufacturing. Paul and Luke discuss this fundamental dilemma at the heart of the new administration’s economic policy, and how the US may exercise its full array of hard power tools to achieve economic, political, and territorial objectives.
Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have over US fiscal policy, regulation, foreign policy, and the broader Trump agenda.
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2025 – including President-elect Trump’s policy choices, the prospect of ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, and whether the UK Chancellor will be back with more tax increases.
We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether the infamous bond vigilantes will return, pushing up government borrowing costs amid fears of debt sustainability.
A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets.
Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UK’s economic, political and market outlook.
After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into ‘Japanification’, and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal policy support.
Markets are facing an array of potential risks - from the imminent US election, narrow leadership in equity markets, and spiking tensions in the Middle East. Paul and Luke speak to Carl Hazley from Finimize about how retail investors are navigating the economic and market landscape, and how financial institutions can support this increasingly sophisticated group of investors.
Economies are built on infrastructure. But stretched public finances mean the state is increasingly looking to the private sector to help fund infrastructure. Climate change, technological progress, and geopolitics are changing the sort of infrastructure we need. And building physical infrastructure can be fraught with hurdles from the planning process. On this episode, Paul Diggle speaks with Bridget Rosewell, board member of the UK Infrastructure Bank and former Commissioner of the National Infrastructure Commission, about the economics of infrastructure.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget on 30 October. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether Labour have been talking the UK economy down as the government manages expectations ahead of potential tax increases, and whether markets should be concerned about possible accounting changes to the way Bank of England losses are treated in the public finances.
A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Together, these sent shockwaves through financial markets. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to James McCann and Sree Kochugovindan about whether “this time is different” for US recession indicators, what the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida means for the Bank of Japan, and the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy.
We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play these trends? Paul Diggle talks to Blair Couper and Jamie Mills-O’Brien, equity fund managers at abrdn, about thematic investing.
The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Biden’s grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping.
Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets.
France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macron’s gamble doesn’t seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of France’s membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UK’s “Liz Truss moment” are appropriate.
China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Robert Gilhooly about how China overtook the US as the world’s pre-eminent manufacturer of electric vehicles, the ways in which this is changing the course of the Chinese economy, and why this is amplifying trade tensions with the US and Europe.
The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy – from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU.
The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US’s long standing commitment to a strong dollar.
The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial markets.
The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.
The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.
The ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay – and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and portfolio diversification.
China has just announced a GDP target of “around 5%” for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy.
US inflation picked up in January, and there are lingering concerns that the “last mile” of bringing inflation back to target will be the most difficult.
Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to James McCann about the drivers of US inflation, the positive supply-side shocks that made the initial decline in inflation so rapid, the 1970s experience that might be weighing on policymakers, and whether the US is at risk of a fiscal crisis.
The Eurozone economy is stagnating and the German economy in particular is facing significant cyclical and structural headwinds. We discuss why.
A majority of the global population are heading to the polls this year, bookended by Taiwan just gone and the US in November. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, to discuss what is at stake for economies and markets. Overarching all these elections are unifying themes of political polarisation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the changing nature of globalisation.
India was the fastest-growing major economy last year, and overhauled China as the most populous country. Paul and Luke discuss prospects for the Indian economy with Michael Langham, Emerging Markets Analyst at abrdn. They talk about India’s demographic tailwinds, its infrastructure needs, whether India can be a ‘friendshoring’ winner, and what a third Modi term could have in store.
abrdn’s economics team ask and answer the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024. These include the path of inflation, the outlook for US, China and Eurozone growth, the likely pace of interest rate cuts, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, and the potential for AI to drive a productivity boom
Paul and Luke talk to Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Economist at abrdn, about the return of inflation to Japan, and the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy as a response. Negative interest rates and yield curve control could end in 2024, if wage growth and inflation expectations continue moving higher.
Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of severe escalation scenarios.
Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the significant rise in global bond yields. They discuss what has driven this increase, and in particular the importance of rising term premia for the economy and monetary policy.
Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the many potential economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence, including on productivity growth, the labour market, sectoral winners and losers, regulation, and global geopolitics.
Inflation is falling in many EM economies, which is allowing some to cut interest rates well ahead of the US Fed. However, the recent move higher in oil prices, and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on food prices, could derail this improving picture. Paul speaks to Bob Gilhooly, senior EM economist, and Michael Langham, EM analyst, about the economic outlook across the emerging markets.
Luke talks to Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCL, and Bob Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the long term drivers of interest rates. They discuss the causes of the secular decline in interest rates before the pandemic, whether economic changes wrought by the pandemic will reverse this trend, and the impact of demographics, (de)globalisation and AI.
Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy. They debate whether the run of strong activity data but moderating inflation means a US soft landing is now more likely than a recession.
Paul and Luke speak to Michael Saunders, former external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, about the UK economy and the Bank’s track record.
Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the UK economy. They discuss recent trends in growth and inflation, how the UK stands against international peers, the political implications of a possible recession, and the fraying of the “green consensus”.
Paul talks to Professor Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and co-author of ‘Restarting the Future: How to fix the intangible economy’, and Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the intangible economy.
The economy increasingly consists of ideas, brands, and relationships. This shift from “stuff” to intangibles has wide-ranging implications for productivity, competition, inequality, and how policymakers should manage the modern economy.
Luke and Paul talk to Chris Miller, academic, historian and author of Chip Wars: The fight for the world’s most critical technology, about the economic and geopolitical importance of semiconductors. They discuss the technological and supply chain marvel that is the modern microchip, whether the US-China-Taiwan chip nexus is politically stabilising or destabilising, the impact of the CHIPS Act, and AI innovation as a driver of market performance and future great power competition.
As China’s re-opening rebound fades, Paul and Luke talk to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group and Robert Gilhooly of abrdn about the Chinese economy. The discuss the prospects for policy easing, the state of local government finances, and internationalisation of the renminbi.
The US is facing another debt ceiling stand-off, with very high stakes for the economy and markets. Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, about the current impasse and how it could be resolved. They discuss the history of the debt ceiling, the likely shape of a deal, the impact of possible spending cuts on the US economy, and the worst-case scenario of a US debt default.
Luke and Paul talk to Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the drivers of global growth out to 2050. They discuss demographics, and why it is not always destiny, migration, urbanisation, the risks of the middle-income trap, and Asia’s growing share of the global economic pie.
Luke talks to Abigail Watt, economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy and policy. They discuss what recent data resilience says about the likelihood of a recession, the ongoing turmoil of the US banking sector, and whether a near term resolution to the current debt ceiling impasse is on the cards.
Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the UK government’s political economy strategy, whether Sunak will be able to deliver on his key ‘promises’, the developments around a green industrial strategy, and the outlook for the forthcoming UK local elections.
Paul and Luke discuss the macro implications of recent stresses in the banking sector.
They discuss comparisons with the global financial crisis, the negative economic spillovers of banking worries into the economy, and how all this effects the decision making of the Fed and other central banks.
Paul and Luke talk to Eddie Donmez, global markets analyst and a popular finance influencer at Finimize.
Eddie tells us what it means to be a finance influencer, and talks about changing trends in the retail investor community around access to high quality research. We also talk about events at Silicon Valley Bank. Finally, Eddie tells us why he thinks chatbots and AI innovations will change how finance research and analysis is done.
Paul Diggle talks to Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” framework.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been anchoring government bond yields at very low levels. But the policy is coming under increasing pressure from financial markets. Will the new Governor of the BoJ upend this key tenet of the global monetary policy landscape?
Luke Bartholomew talks to Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about Europe’s changing fiscal framework.
The rules that govern European fiscal policy are being rewritten, while Europe is also designing its response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. What does all this mean for the economic outlook and markets?
Paul talks to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at abrdn, about China’s move away from zero-Covid. They discuss the reasons for the abrupt policy shift, the initial hit in terms of health and economic activity, and the economic rebound that’s now underway.
Luke talks to Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at abrdn, about the outlook for US politics in 2023. They discuss the impact of the narrow Republican majority in the House on debt ceiling negotiations and fiscal policy more generally, the broader Republican legislative strategy for the next two years, and the ways in which the 2024 Presidential election will start to impact politics as 2023 progresses.
Paul talks with various members of abrdn’s Research Institute about their forecasts for next year. They discuss the probability of recession, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, what’s happening in emerging markets, and what all this means for markets.
Paul talks to Adam Slater, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, about housing markets in the major economies. House prices, home sales and housing starts have been on a downward trend in many countries, driven by rising mortgage rates and squeezed real incomes. But there are important differences between economies, which Paul and Adam explore in this podcast.
Luke Bartholomew speaks to Eva Cairns, Head of Sustainability Insights & Climate Strategy at abrdn, and Jeremy Lawson, head of abrdn’s Research Institute, following their return from COP27. They assess how much progress was made in bridging the credibility, ambition, justice, and adaptation gaps that needed addressing to make COP27 a success. They also discuss whether the COP process is fit for purpose to deliver sustainable climate policy.
Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the optimal – and likely – monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coming recession. Is it back to negative rates and quantitative easing, or will persistent inflation mean interest rates remain high even as recession hits? And are governments able to spend big to support the economy, or will they be constrained by what markets will fund and they can afford?
Luke Bartholomew is joined by Bob Gilhooly, Senior Economist at abrdn, and Neil Thomas, a political risk analyst at Eurasia, to discuss the key takeaways from China’s 20th Party Congress. With President Xi further cementing his power over the Party and China, the risk of policy shocks and mistakes has arguably increased, while in the short-term China continues to deal with the challenge of zero-Covid and the property sector.
In this episode Luke Bartholomew is joined by Jeremy Lawson, abrdn’s Chief Economist, and James McBride from Forefront Advisers to discuss the recent economic, political, and market turbulence in the UK.
With the Bank of England forced to intervene in the government bond market, the economy likely to fall into recession, and the government’s fiscal plans in disarray, they consider how likely the government is to survive the forthcoming fiscal announcement and beyond.
In this episode, Luke Bartholomew speaks to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist after the developments in the US economy and markets over the summer, and look forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and mid-term elections. The Fed is gearing up for another mammoth rate hike, continuing the sharpest adjustment in monetary policy settings since the Volker era.
- This continued urgency provides a pushback to markets which had been flirting with the possibility of a more cautious Fed, and comes in response to a really ugly underlying inflation reading in August.
- We continue to believe that the tightening needed to bring inflation back under control will be fatal for the business cycle, and have brought forward our expectation for a US recession to the middle of next year.
- Democrats have shown they can get policy done with a unified Congress and White House, but face an uphill battle to hold the latter in the November midterms, which could limit the degree of fiscal policy support in the face of a 2023 downturn.
In this episode, Luke and Paul discuss the many challenges facing Europe at the moment, including: inflation, recession, energy prices, political uncertainty, and monetary policy tightening.
The key takeaways are
· Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone is at all-time lows. While these surveys probably overstate the degree of economic weakness, this kind of sentiment deterioration cannot help but have some impact on people’s spending patterns and so the economic outlook. Near term recession risks are therefore highly elevated.
· Going into the winter, Europe faces an even more challenging economic environment, with Russian gas supplies to Europe likely to be highly restricted even in the best case scenario. In the worst case scenario, where Russian gas supplies are largely turned off, the continent would face severe energy rationing for firms causing a recession this year.
· The collapse of the Italian government partly reflects the strains that high inflation and economic weakness are putting on political systems across the world. A governing coalition of right leaning parties looks to be the most likely outcome of elections later this year, which could further complicate Italy’s access to EU support measures.
· The European Central Bank’s Transmission Protection Instrument should help support various sovereign debt markets through this tightening cycle. However, it may be less useful in dealing with spread widening caused by domestic political uncertainty.
· The ECB is likely to deliver several more 50bps rate increases over the next few months. However, the Eurozone economy is heading for recession sooner or later, which means rate hikes will likely go into reverse at some point next year.
In this episode, Paul Diggle talks to abrdn’s Senior Emerging Market Economist Robert Gilhooly and Absolute Strategy Research’s EM economist Adam Wolfe about the outlook for China. They discuss zero Covid, the 20th Party Congress, and President Xi’s policy agenda.
The key takeaways are:
· Chinese growth is rebounding out of the Shanghai lockdown, but this recovery may not prove particularly durable while zero-Covid remains in place. Already, there are renewed outbreaks requiring restrictions in parts of the country.
· As a baseline expectation, China is likely to roll back zero Covid gradually after the 20th Party Congress in Q4. However, the rollout of mRNA vaccines or Omicron-specific vaccines may delay this timetable.
· Fiscal and monetary policy are being used to support the economy, but will struggle to gain traction. Stimulus measures may just be pulling forward growth from the future.
· President Xi is almost certain to secure a 3rd term at the 20th Congress, and continue to consolidate power around himself. The composition of the Politburo may hold clues about his desire for a 4th term and beyond, or whether a successor is being prepared.
· Chinese policy is gradually playing down the supremacy of growth targets, instead pivoting to resilience and national security considerations.
In the second of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century. In this episode they discuss monetary policy, including the geopolitical and democratic consequences of US monetary hegemony, the future of central bank independence, and the likelihood of a recession.
The key takeaways are:
· Both the Great Moderation period of strong growth and low inflation, and the New Normal period of weak growth and low inflation were underwritten by low energy prices. The prospect of a return to structurally low energy prices in the near term seems very unlikely, making the job of monetary policy makers much more difficult.
· The Fed’s position at the centre of the global dollar system means its policy decisions have huge consequences for the rest of the world. In times of crisis this means the Fed has to act as lender of the last resort to much of the world, but even in “normal” times constrains the freedom of manoeuvre of various other central banks and governments. These concerns are likely to be particularly pressing in a period of rising rates.
· The current delegation of responsibilities between fiscal and monetary policy makers is highly contingent and may come under pressure in this period of high inflation. However, a return to fiscal policy acting as the key tool of macro stabilisation is unlikely, especially if it becomes tainted by association with this bout of inflation.
The lesson from previous episodes of high energy prices and monetary tightening is that they typically end in recession, where demand destruction for energy comes about though economic weakness.
In the first of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century. In this episode they discuss the geopolitics of energy supply, and how this helps to explain aspects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the green transition, and other features of the global economy.
The key takeaways are:
Energy markets provide a vital frame to understand 20th and 21st century geopolitics. US energy independence has complicated the relationship between the US, Russia, and the Middle East; while European energy dependence has been an ongoing source of political and economic volatility.
- The German energy strategy of binding Russia’s economic interests with Europe’s through mutual dependence on energy ties failed in part because Russia judged that non-European sources of demand reduced its dependence on European demand.
- The transition to renewable energy is likely to bring further geopolitical tensions in part due to China’s dominance in the supply of key resources involved in green technologies.
- The political response to today’s high energy prices has so far revolved around subsidising demand rather than cutting demand through moral suasion and a ‘politics of sacrifice’. That may change this winter if Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe.
- Conditions of war may be more conducive to appeals to sacrifice, but politicians have so far struggled to mobile this rhetoric around using less energy as a necessary component of net zero.
In this podcast, co-hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle speak to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist about the US-led global recession we are forecasting.
The key takeaways were:
- We expect the US economy to fall into recession in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening.
- History suggests that when inflation gets this high and unemployment this low, hiking cycles overwhelming end in recessions. That is because the way to rebalance the economy and tame inflation expectations is to deliver a slowdown in activity commensurate with a recession.
- The recession is not a ‘policy error’ in the conventional sense, but rather a necessary corrective. The policy error occurred in letting economic imbalances grow this big in the first place.
- Recession forecasts are notoriously difficult to make with many false negatives and false positives. This is the result of many factors, including the random nature of the shocks than often cause recessions, and the feedback that exists between forecasts and policy makers, with policy makers often actively trying to stop any forecasted recessions through stimulative policy.
- Because we consider this to be a necessary recession, policy makers cannot act to stop the downturn we expect. Indeed the Fed is actively trying to deliver a slowdown, not avert one.
- Moreover, ongoing evidence of demand strength would not ease our recession concerns, but exacerbate them, as this would imply inflationary imbalances were getting more entrenched. It is only positive news about the supply side that would make us less concerned about a recession.
The energy transition in the Asia Pacific region, the crucial role this plays in decarbonisation and the opportunities and challenges that are faced as part of this transition.
In this episode our hosts, with guest Jonathan Hobbs from Finimize, discuss the recent collapse of a large crypto asset project, crypto coin and a related stablecoin and the knock-on effects on the wider crypto market. They also consider what’s happening more broadly in other crypto assets, crypto regulation and the significance for traditional finance and investors.
Focusing on the UK local elections, Paul Diggle, Luke Bartholomew & Jeremy Lawson discuss the economic challenges facing the UK government and what it all means for the potential future general election and for investors
Luke Bartholomew & Paul Diggle discuss the French Election Results and the state of French politics. They touch on the lessons to be learnt around Inflation and the broader political environment
Luke Bartholomew & Sree Kochugovindan sit down to discuss the factors at play as to why Inflation is so surprisingly high across multiple countries. They drill down on key topics surrounding inflation and how this is then linked with the employment market.
With growing perception that the Fed has fallen behind the curve in terms of dealing with underlying inflation pressure, significant monetary tightening will need to occur. Does this mean a recession is looming? Deputy Chief Economist, James McCann and Research Economist, Abigail Watt, join Luke Bartholomew to provide their insights.
With sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, we discuss what this means for central bank reserves as well as look at the economic consequences for the rest of the world
In this episode (recorded on 22 February 2022) we discuss the rapidly changing situation between Russia and Ukraine, look at how the crisis developed, and explore the potential longer term geopolitical consequences
How will central banks behave in response to Omicron, shifting labour markets and inflation? In the second of a two-part series looking at Omicron, we are joined by James McCann and Luke Bartholomew to explain
How is Omicron impacting China’s globally important economy? What impact will China’s strategy to confront Covid have on global supply chains? And what do these supply chain issues mean for inflation?
In this episode, the first of a two-part series, Luke Bartholomew is joined by abrdn Research Institute colleagues Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist and Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist to discuss these key questions.
In this podcast episode we discuss the latest installment in our award-winning series, “A Woman’s Place”, identifying three areas in which governments and companies can do more to boost female participation in the workforce.
Authors Stephanie Kelly and Abigail Watt discuss how tax rates can discourage women from paid work and suggest how governments can lower this barrier.
The research also examines how childcare cost and availability are deterring women from paid work and how such obstacles reinforce both gender and ethnic inequalities.
In this episode we're joined by James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist, to look forward to 2022 thinking about the important economic and political issues that we think will be shaping the investment landscape and market returns.
In this episode we discuss China’s shifting regulatory sands, particularly in the real estate, technology and education sectors where sweeping changes in these areas stunned investors through 2021.
The first note in our series on China regulation can be found here: https://www.abrdn.com/en/uk/institutional/insights-thinking-aloud/article-page/china-policy-xi
COP26 created a lot of headlines but will it lead to meaningful policy change on the ground? The team discuss the significance of promises made and missed, and explain what it could mean for investors and our commitments going forwards.
| Nick Robins, Professor in Practice of Sustainable Finance at the London School of Economics, joins to discuss the Just Transition, what it is, why it matters and what it means for financial institutions.
In this episode we consider the role of government policy in the transformation, the UK’s strategy to achieve decarbonisation and how the outcomes of COP26 could influence the future of energy on a global scale.
In this episode, Anna Moss, Climate Change Scenario Analyst at abrdn, and Luke Bartholomew, co-host and our Senior Monetary Economist, join Paul Diggle to discuss the role of the judicial system and the courts and central banks in climate policy, and the profound impact that climate litigation and central bank action has on investment markets.
In this episode, Stephanie Kelly interviews Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew on their research into the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the economy.
Duncan Weldon, UK Economics Correspondent for the The Economist, joins us to discuss his new book looking at the political economy of Britain from the industrial revolution to the pandemic.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
In this episode of the Macro Bytes podcast we take a look at the initial rebound in global economic growth and consider the factors that could slow down the pace of recovery .
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
In this week's episode the team discuss the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report on climate change which has gained considerable media coverage since its publication. They explore their initial reactions, how it impacts concepts like Net Zero 2050 and what it means for investors, policymaker,and companies.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Welcome to another week of our Macro Bytes podcast – in which co-hosts Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by special guest David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, former Treasury Department economist, academic and host of the Macro Musings podcast to explore the new frontiers of central banking.
This week the team discuss three key topics:
· The recent changes to the US Fed’s and other central banks’ inflation targeting frameworks
· The implications of central banks getting involved in climate policy
· Whether central banks are going to start issuing digital currencies in response to the rising popularity of cryptocurrencies
David’s NYT Op-Ed on Jerome Powell’s reappointment is here.
Luke and Paul’s piece on green central banking is here
And here are our thoughts on the outlook of central bank digital currencies
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Welcome to another week of our Macro Bytes podcast. Our host Paul Diggle is joined by colleagues James McCann and Edward Glossop from the abrdn Research Institute to discuss how the Delta variant is impacting the economic recovery around the world.
In this episode we discuss the spread of the Delta variant through the major economies and highlight how vaccine rollouts and Covid handling will drive countries on different economic paths.
The team explores how different policy responses, political preferences and varying vaccination rates are creating a divergent recovery. Mapping a country’s vaccine penetration against its Covid-handling strategy can give a good indication of its economic recovery prospects.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes in which our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by Abigail Watt, to discuss their latest output in the A Woman’s Place research series : an index for investors and policymakers to track progress and changes in female workforce dynamics.
This new Gender Equality Index (GEI) scores and ranks 29 developed countries on gender equality, in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals, policy and empowerment – and shows where countries are doing well and where they need to improve when it comes to maximising female potential in the workforce.
In this episode the authors share their belief that countries with more progressive gender policies and higher GEI scores will be better equipped to deal with issues like aging populations and slowing productivity growth and why investors considering long-term risks should factor in gender equality to get a more holistic view of the fundamental problems of labour supply constraints and the consequences of aging populations.
The GEI seeks to provide a basic framework for undertaking this analysis and a useful additional tool for forecasting which countries are vulnerable to weak productivity and potential growth and which are likely to flourish and benefit from the growth in the investment environment.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
In this episode of Macro Bytes we take a look at the US labour market and its implications for the Federal Reserve. What’s been holding back labour supply and how temporary or permanent is this? What’s behind the change in the dot plot and to what extent do markets need to fret about a more hawkish Fed?
Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by James McCann from ASI and Kathy Bostjancic from Oxford Economics. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the US is seeing a slower than expected recovery of the labour market. We discuss the potential causes and the future outlook.
Part 1 focuses on the labour market, the causes behind mismatched labour supply and demand, and the implications for inflation.
Part 2 discusses the June Federal Reserve meeting and what monetary policy normalisation means for financial markets.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
In this episode of Macro Bytes we consider the potential implications of US-China tensions for global political risk and inflation risk. We discuss what has changed under President Biden, what has not, and answer the big investor question: what does this mean for inflation.
Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist at the abrdn Research Institute. Having discussed the general outlook for inflation in the US in a recent episode of the podcast, this week we focus in on how to think about inflationary risks when it comes to US-China politics and the fragmented global trade environment.
Part 1 discusses US-China relations hot on the heels of the G7 summit.
Part 2 explores whether investors should worry about US-China decoupling adding to inflation pressures.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
The causes of the pandemic recession were different to anything from the post-war era, so should we expect the economic recovery to be different too? How should market price this recovery and what should investors look out for?
Welcome to another week of Macro Matters. In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by Jeremy Lawson, Luke Bartholomew and Robert Gilhooly from the abrdn Research Institute. A year ago, Luke and Paul’s research report ‘How is this recession different?’ considered how the economic shock from the pandemic differed from any recession seen before. Now, 12 months on and with the bounce out of the recession underway, the question is around the nature of the recovery.
Luke begins by discussing the shape of the recovery and the extent of monetary and fiscal policy support.
Jeremy asks whether this recovery is the start of a new business cycle or a continuation of the previous one, and explores divergences in the goods and services sectors.
Bob focuses on how the recovery may vary between emerging and developed markets.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
The recent news of a significant jump in US consumer prices surprised many. As post-pandemic demand for goods has risen, the US is experiencing supply bottlenecks putting upward pressure on prices. Combined with Biden’s economic stimulus, this has caused growing concerns about the risk of inflation. Will the economy overheat? And how will the Federal Reserve respond?
Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode, we welcome our guest host, Luke Bartholomew who is joined by James McCann, abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist. The post-pandemic surge in consumer prices raises concerns over potential overheating the US economy and the risk of inflation.
Part 1 focuses on recent US inflation data and the bottlenecks in the goods and services sector.
Part 2 considers the outlook for inflation, the risks in 2022/23 and the Federal Reserve’s response.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Semiconductor chips are in short supply and high demand at the moment. These chips are technologically hard to make and production is highly concentrated in Taiwan and Korea. With semiconductors present in an ever-increasing share of the goods that global consumers buy, a global shortage can be seen as akin to a modern-day oil shock - with widespread consequences for economic activity, inflation, and even geopolitics.
In this episode, our host Paul Diggle is joined by Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist and Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist from abrdn Research Institute. Together they discuss the reasons behind the global semiconductor shortage and what this means for markets.
Part 1 explores the supply and demand factors behind the current shortage their consequences and how long they may last.
Part 2 focuses on the implications for inflation, chip production, geo-strategic competition and reliance on global supply chains.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) won a fourth term in power in the recent Scottish election. Despite falling one seat short of absolute majority, with the backing of the Greens, they will be able to form a pro-independence coalition. What does this mean for the Scottish independence referendum and how will it impact investors and the economy?
Our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist at abrdn. With the results of the recent Scottish elections, eyes turn to the question of independence and its impact on the UK economy.
Part 1 begins by discussing the pre-election political context in the UK and the key takeaways from Scottish and local English elections.
Part 2 discusses the path and barriers to a Scottish independence referendum and explore what Scottish independence would mean for monetary policy, currency and the Scottish economy.
After the Great War and Spanish Flu, the 1920s saw a rejuvenation of the economy with a golden age of booming consumerism, innovation and culture. Now economists are questioning whether history is set to repeat itself. Will we see the 2020s roar? Or is secular stagnation here to stay?
In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest Dominic White, Head of Economics at Absolute Strategy Research. Having published a recent note ‘Signs of a shift out of Secular Stagnation’, Dominic comes with some interesting views on how we can compare the 1920s economic boom with the 2020s in relation to the economic aftermath of the Covid pandemic.
Part 1 begins by characterising the Roaring Twenties decade, drawing parallels between 1920 and 2020 and explaining secular stagnation.
Part 2 discusses why the Roaring 2020s analogy falls short and focuses on why investors and markets should remain optimistic.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Biden vowed to ‘reset’ the approach to foreign policy and rekindle international relationships. But how has he fared? Join Stephanie Kelly and special guest Jeffrey Wright as they discuss repairing allyship in Europe, the US China relationship and what this means for the macro environment.
Jeffrey Wright, analyst at Eurasia Group's North America practice, shares his expertise in US fiscal, foreign, trade, and regulatory policy, as well as presidential politics.
Part 1 begins by summarising Biden’s approach to foreign policy compared to his predecessor. In particular, the discussion is around the US position in global politics and how allies are reacting to a more friendly US partnership.
Part 2 The focus then shifts to the climate agenda, the US China stand-off and impacts on countries caught in the cross hairs.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
This week on Macro Bytes we welcome Dr Grégory Claeys to discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) strategic review. Can monetary policy be used in the fight against climate change and what does this mean for the ECB?
In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest, Dr Grégory Claeys. Senior Fellow at the European think tank Bruegel and Associate Professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris. Grégory talks to us from Brussels to share his expertise in macroeconomics, central banking and European governance.
Also joining Paul is the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew, our in-house Monetary Economist. Together they discuss the impending ECB strategic review and how climate change can be incorporated into monetary policy.
Part 1 gives the background on the ECB strategic review, and explains how the inflation target and the tools of monetary policy may change.
Part 2 focuses in on climate change in relation to monetary policy, the tools a central bank has to fight climate change, and how it fits in with the ECB’s mandate.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
The Covid Crisis has thrown the sustainability of the European Union’s fiscal rules into question. This episode of Macro Bytes discusses the main reform proposals on the table and debates whether a new European fiscal architecture is needed for the post-pandemic world.
Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode our co-hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle address the motivations for, and problems with, the European Union’s longstanding fiscal rules.
Part 1 outlines what the EU fiscal rules are, why they were needed in the first place, and why they have recently been so heavily criticized.
Part 2 covers the various reform proposals that have been put forward, before discussing the key political players across Germany and Italy that investors should look out for.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
As Biden unveils a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure package for the US, it’s clear that his administration are committed to strengthening the post-pandemic economy. This episode of Macro Matters discusses the key challenges of the proposal and what it means for politics, climate change and beyond.
Joining our host Stephanie Kelly for another US politics special is the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew , our Senior Monetary Economist and regular guest on the podcast. Together they open up the conversation around Biden’s bold infrastructure plan and its macro and political impacts.
Part 1 sets the scene for the US in terms of the Covid crisis before explaining what the infrastructure package includes and how it's funded
Part 2 covers what this new proposal actually means in relation to politics, the macro environment and climate change.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Are higher bond yields a headwind to the economic recovery and financial markets, or justified by the improvement in economic prospects as countries recover from the pandemic? This week on Macro Matters, we look at government bond markets to understand the impact of higher yields on the economic recovery and investors.
Our host Paul Diggle is joined by the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew, our in-house monetary policy expert, as well as Ross Hutchison, Investment Director at abrdn who works at the coal-face of government bond markets. Together they discuss the causes of the rise in bond yields, the implications for the economy and markets, and what central banks are saying and doing about it all.
How have emerging economies weathered the Covid storm? This week on Macro Matters, we look across Latin America, Russia and Asia to understand the different challenges facing emerging markets along the road to recovery.
In this episode our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by two of our Emerging Market Economists from the ASI Research Institute, Robert Gilhooly and Edward Glossop. Together, they discuss the Covid crisis from the perspective of emerging markets and the implications of the crisis on future growth prospects.
Part 1 begins by explaining the EM experience of the pandemic versus DMs before focusing on Latin America to discuss the political implications of the crisis.
Part 2 gives an update on Chinese and Russian vaccine diplomacy and the impact of the Biden administration on Latin America and China.
As the pandemic continues to accelerate the long-term shift away from cash transactions, central banks around the world are seriously considering digital currencies as a way to keep up with digitalisation. But what would a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) look like? How could it change the way we all save and spend money, and what does this mean for the future of commercial banking?
Welcome to another episode of Macro Matters. This week our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest David Oxley, Senior Economist from Capital Economics. Together with Luke Bartholomew, our in-house Monetary Economist, they discuss whether central banks should issue digital currencies.
Part 1 brings us up to speed on what CBDCs are, how they differ from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and what it would mean in practice for us all to have a bank account with the central bank.
Part 2 discusses the potential costs and benefits of CBDCs, focussing on the consumer and business innovations that could be possible, how CBDCs might change monetary policy, and the future of commercial banks in this brave new world.
This week marks the rather grim milestone of a year since the World Health Organisation declared the COVID-19 spread a global pandemic. But with vaccines being rolled out and lockdown easing, we might be glimpsing the light at the end of the tunnel. The big question remains: what will the world look like when lockdown is over?
For investors and for policymakers, this is especially thorny because it partly depends on individual behaviour. What will reopening mean for the large savings balances that wealthier individuals have amassed? Will people flash the cash on meals out and foreign travel as soon as economies start to re-open? And what will all of that mean for growth, inflation and the market environment?
Stephanie Kelly discusses the tricky question of post-pandemic economic forecasting with James McCann, with some hints from our mini-survey of the Macro Bytes team and what they're personally most looking forward to in life after lockdown.
Ahead of International Women’s Day on March 8th, this week’s episode of Macro Bytes focuses on gender equality. Sharing the findings from the newly published research ‘A Woman’s Place’ , the episode explores why boosting female participation in the labour force is key to unlocking long-term economic growth and what policies really work. It turns out, men are a crucial piece of the puzzle.
Find out more about A Woman's Place
We'll be publishing further editions of the research throughout the year so stay up to date by visiting our Research Hub where you'll find related articles, upcoming events and links to download the full working research paper.
If there’s one thing that’s certain about the pandemic, it’s uncertainty. So how do economists and investors make forecasts in this environment? Our latest episode explains why drifting into epidemiology has become an occupational hazard when it comes to forecasting the macro-economy and markets.
Our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist and head of the ASI Research Institute. Together they discuss the complex process of economic forecasting, and explain the additional uncertainties introduced by Covid-19 that mean vaccine rollout and lockdown stringency are important economic considerations.
Part 1 focuses on how the pandemic has changed the way economists do their forecasts, and describes a framework for integrating vaccine rollout and lockdown stringency into the outlook for economies and markets.
Part 2 considers the outlook for vaccine rollout and expectations for re-opening, as well as the longer term impacts of the crisis.
Biden’s bold fiscal stimulus proposal has sparked a wider debate in the investment community about the limits of fiscal policy. Should we worry about governments running large deficits and building up huge debt loads? Or are the costs of doing too little greater than doing too much?
In this episode, our host Paul Diggle is joined by fellow economists from the Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute, James McCann and Luke Bartholomew. Together they discuss the role of fiscal policy in the pandemic recovery, and whether economies risk having ‘too much of a good thing’.
Part 1 addresses why a country is not like a household in its debt carrying capacity, what that means for austerity versus fiscal stimulus, and whether debt-to-GDP limits are much larger than people think.
Part 2 turns our attention to the current debate over the size of fiscal stimulus in the US, the role of fiscal policy when central banks are so constrained, and what such huge stimulus measures mean for the inflation outlook.
How are EU institutions handling the Covid challenge and what are the prospects for EU recovery? With Draghi trying to form a new government in Italy, upcoming elections in Germany to decide who replaces Merkel, and a difficult vaccine rollout being a potential source of euroscepticism, it's safe to say that 2021 has change in store for European politics.
This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle return our attention back to Europe and bring us up to speed on the recent economic and political developments impacting the EU.
Part 1 focuses on Europe’s handling of the covid crisis, covering vaccine roll out, fiscal policy and the role of the European Central Bank.
Part 2 covers both Germany and Italy, discussing the implications of Germany’s next chancellor and the task ahead for the Draghi government.
Science meets politics in this week’s episode of Macro Matters. As the race continues to roll out a coronavirus vaccine, what should be a positive step towards normality has turned into a political debate over supply. Are we seeing the emergence of vaccine nationalism, and what does this mean for Covid diplomacy?
This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Robert Gilhooly, our in-house Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist. Together they discuss the political implications of the Covid vaccine rollout and what this means for foreign policy, UK-EU relations, and emerging markets.
Part 1 focuses on vaccine nationalism covering Brexit, Euroscepticism and border controls.
Part 2 ends with vaccine diplomacy and covers vaccine donations, emerging market vaccine supply and Covax.
As America’s new president is sworn in and the Biden administration officially begins, our host Stephanie Kelly explores what to look out for in Biden’s first 100 days. What changes are in store for fiscal policy and what does this mean for investors?
This week we're joined by Clayton Allen, director of Eurasia Group, who brings a wealth of knowledge having worked in both the Senate and the White House. Joining Clayton is James McCann, our own in-house expert and Senior Global Economist.
Part 1 begins with Clayton answering key questions concerning party politics today. How unified is the democratic party? Who are the key people to watch? And why is Joe Manchin so important?
Part 2 sees James cover the implications of the Biden administration on our growth forecasts and the markets outlook.
The pandemic has wide-ranging implications for the future of cities. Lock-down measures have reduced the use of office space, halted the hospitality sector and changed how we use transport systems. But is city-flight a temporary phenomenon? Or are cities more resilient than we think?
In this episode our host Paul Diggle discusses the post-pandemic future of cities with the esteemed British economist Bridget Rosewell. Once the Chief Economist for the Greater London Authority and now Non-Executive Director of Network Rail, Bridget shares her leading expertise on the economics of cities and transport.
What does 2021 have in store for the global economy? Rested after the festive break, our hosts Paul Diggle and Stephanie Kelly regroup for the first episode of 2021. Together they look forward to the year ahead and answer 7 questions shaping our economic and political outlook
• How big is the drag from renewed lockdowns?
• How quickly will vaccines be rolled out and gain macroeconomic traction?
• What does the Brexit deal actually mean?
• What will a Biden Presidency do?
• Is the global economy facing fiscal cliffs?
• Will monetary policy remain a support?
• Which way will inflation go?
In our final podcast of 2020, we're joined by Felicity Burch, Director of Innovation and Digital at the CBI and James McCann, Senior Economist at ASI. What does the future hold for business? How important is innovation and why does research matter for economists and investors alike?
In part 1, we consider why innovation matters for business, the "silver-lining" effect that Covid has had in incentivising firms to innovate, and the challenge companies face to keep up the momentum as the world returns to something closer to ‘normal’ in 2021.
In part 2, we discuss why innovation is a key factor for the macroeconomic outlook and how research can allow investors to identify the winners and losers of digital innovation.
Climate change. A force shaping our economy as well as our geography. Our experts in this week’s podcast bring the climate agenda into sharper focus. What risks does climate change pose for the markets and how can investors use climate scenarios to better inform their understanding of the risks and opportunities in the coming decades?
Part 1 highlighting the risks that climate change poses to life as we know it and then moves to the importance of climate scenarios for investors seeking to understand both physical and transition risks.
Part 2 highlights the growing demand for climate scenario analysis from clients, regulators and beyond.
Inflation or deflation? It’s a question fuelling debate across the investment community. Our experts on this week’s episode discuss the impact of the Covid crisis on inflation and the likelihood of fiscal dominance.
Our host Paul Diggle is joined by two familiar faces from the Aberdeen Standard Research Institute, giving us a trio of economic expertise - Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist and Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist.
Part 1 focuses on the outlook for energy and food prices, the impact of tax cuts and wages support, and the practical difficulties of measuring inflation during a pandemic.
Part 2 compares the high inflation of the 1970s and the low inflation of the 2010s, applying the lessons of these distinct historical inflation regimes to the inflation outlook from here.
This week on Macro Matters we welcome the renowned professor and author, Barry Eichengreen to discuss polarised politics in the eye of a Covid storm. How has coronavirus fueled the populist narrative and what does this mean for investors?
Part 1 begins by touching on themes from Barry’s published works and explains the key drivers of populism and its impact on economic growth. Diving into the pandemic, the discussion turns to Covid’s unequal economic impact whilst also covering the US Election and the challenges being faced in Eastern Europe.
Part 2 follows Steph and Paul as they discuss examples of populism in action today, what it means for investors and what we can expect going forward.
This week we welcome Bloomberg’s Chief Economist, Tom Orlik, to discuss China and the widespread prediction that it's a bubble about to burst. Is the Chinese economy really on the cusp of collapse? Or have doom-mongers been getting it wrong?
Part 1 will cover the frequent oversimplification of the Chinese economy by outside observers, the long-term growth trajectory and how China performed during the Coronavirus outbreak.
Part 2 questions the impact of the US Election on US-China relations whilst also touching on its 2060 zero-carbon commitment.
This episode turns our attention to Europe. What does a Biden win mean for Brexit, and what is the future of Europe after Angela Merkel steps down next year?
Part 1 follows on from the US Election to discuss the result and its impact on EU-US relations.
Part 2 dives deeper into the EU agenda covering the pandemic, Europe post-Merkel, Brexit, and the longer term challenges facing the Eurozone.
As the dust begins to settle after a huge turn-out both on and before polling-day in the US, Senior Political Economist Stephanie Kelly and Senior Economist Paul Diggle invite Chief Economist, Jeremy Lawson, back on to the show to take stock of the standings as they unfold. What are the early indicators? What happens next? And how are the markets responding so far?
A note on timing: we recorded the podcast at 11.00 UK GMT and 06.00 Washington DC time on November 4th 2020.
As the US Election race enters its final week before the big day in November, there could only really be one topic of conversation: who is in the lead, and what do the different possible outcomes mean for the markets and for investors?
Our Senior Global Economist, James McCann, joins us from Boston, Mass. to discuss the state of the race with Senior Political Economist, Stephanie Kelly. What would be the best outcome for growth forecasts? What's the worst? And in the heat of the high-profile tussle between the two Presidential runners, what should investors be focussing on?
For part 2, Stephanie takes the hot seat and Senior Economist, Paul Diggle, picks up the questioning of polling accuracy.
What lessons can economists learn from how a virus spreads, and what pitfalls should they avoid? Our guest, the distinguished economist Paul Ormerod, suggests that the macro-modellers of the Covid-19 virus might have missed a trick; put simply, they didn’t properly take into account the fact that people faced with a situation – any situation – are highly likely to change their behaviour as a result.
And if economics is all about human behaviour, should economists have been as closely involved as epidemiologists in modelling the approach to managing the virus back in March?
Brexit and Covid-19 are still the topics on everyone's lips, like it or not. But taking a longer view, where does this leave UK politics - and what does sustained political volatility mean for investors?
Stephanie Kelly's guests this week are James McBride, from Hanbury Strategies, and Luke Bartholomew, a regular Macro Matters guest and a senior economist at the ASI Research Institute. Join them as they discuss how Covid and Brexit play with the Westminster world, what the outlook is for UK politics, and what protracted political uncertainty means for markets and investors.
We're talking to Senior Monetary Economist, Luke Bartholomew, on whether furlough worked and discussing the outlook for the UK and broader European labour market, as some of the support schemes start to roll off.
Then it's a chat with Research Economist, Abigail Watt, on the rise of big data, which economists are using to track the economy in real time during this crisis.
In the wake of a spectacularly ill-tempered U.S. Presidential election TV debate, who is leading the race, and what does this mean for our economic forecasting?
We welcome our guest, American political strategist, Robby Mook. Robby has run multiple major election campaigns for the Democratic Party and most notably was the campaign manager for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign.
Stephanie Kelly interviews Robby, kicking off with an easy question - who's going to win the race for the White House? Then the tables are turned and Paul Diggle asks Steph to review the insights from Robby and to consider the outlook for markets and investors.
We recorded this episode the day after the first U.S. Presidential debate, and before the announcement about President Trump's positive Covid-19 test.
This week, we grade Abenomics and look ahead to the next era of Japanese politics, and we assess the impact of the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the US Presidential race.
Paul Diggle is joined by three socially-distanced guests to discuss the fallout from the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. Together they grade the three arrows of Abenomics (spoiler: nobody gets an "A") and discuss the challenges facing the new Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, and how all this affects investors.
Our lead topic is the cheery prospect of a cold, Covid winter - are further lockdowns on the horizon, and how much more can the economy can take? We leaven this with a lively discussion on inflation, and ask whether the crisis will have inflationary or disinflationary consequences. Clue: we think worries about inflation rising out of control are overblown - but you'll have to listen in to hear the rest.
This week’s lead topic is the Federal Reserve’s new mandate. Our guests are James McCann, Senior Economist, based in Boston, Massachusetts, and Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist. Then we’ll be picking up where we all left off on Brexit, and assessing the latest dramatic moves from the UK Government and the EU.