(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re48: From Drugs to Mao to Money
Retraice^1
China Part 2: A sketch of China from the Opium Wars to 2012.
Air date: Saturday, 12th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Our China model and H4
Model of China: The most people with the most history, mostly doing well, except lately (1839-1976), and now making a comeback: 1.4 billion people striving; intense competition in business and mating; government by a single party; risen in a U.S. world; speaking a different language.
The most relevant hypothesis is:
H4 China: `The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely.'
See Retraice (2022/03/07) for details and citations.
What happened in China
(before Xi)?
We don't know for sure, we only know what historians tell us, for which a trust model would be ideal. But short of that, we know (better) things that are present-tense:
The Chinese call it the `century of humiliation'.^2
Whatever else we accept about the history of China, that sentiment is present-tense.
Now, on the history of China before Xi:^3
* Drugs: pursuing better' (H7) via trade and substances (wealth, H10).
+ the Opium Wars (1839-1860): tea sold to the West, and opium sold to China, two drugs with very different effects (one stimulative, one destructive); it started with an imbalance in trade, because China sold tea, but didn't want anything the British were selling, so the British started pushing opium from India;
+ theCentury of Humiliation' (1839-1949); Western technology (boats, guns) won wars, lead to economic exploitation.
* Mao: pursing better' via technical modernization (technology, H2, H12).
+ civil war between nationalists (Chiang Kai-shek) and communists (Mao Zedong) (1927-1949);
+The Great Leap Forward' (1958-1962, 20-30 million died), peasants died, few knew at the time;
+ The Cultural Revolution' (1966-1976, up to a million died), city-folk died, everybody knew at the time;
+ UN recognizes PRC (mainland China) over ROC (Taiwan) (1971);
+ Nixon visits China (1972).
* Money: pursingbetter' via economic reform toward the Western model (wealth, H10).
+ Deng Xiaoping ('70s and '80s), economic reform, hide and bide';
+ Jiang Zemin ('90s), economic reform, globalization;
+ Hu Jintao (2000s), economic reform, the Internet;
+ Economic miracle, Western companies trying to get in and profit, extraction resisted by China;
+ China's ideas about the top spot:Unrestricted Warfare' (1999), The China Dream' and the100 Year Marathon' (2005, 2009).
__
References
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382
https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351
Ames, R. T. (1993). Sun Tzu: The Art of Warfare. Random House. ISBN: 034536239X. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=034536239X
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+034536239X
https://lccn.loc.gov/92052662
Keay, J. (2009). China: A History. HarperCollins. ISBN: 978-0007221783. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780007221783
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780007221783
https://lccn.loc.gov/2009930982
Pillsbury, M. (2015). The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. St. Martin's Griffin. ISBN: 978-1250081346. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781250081346
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781250081346
https://lccn.loc.gov/2014012015
Qiao, L., & Wang, X. (1999). Unrestricted Warfare: China's Master Plan to Destroy America. Echo Point, reprint ed. ISBN: 978-1626543058. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781626543058
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781626543058
https://lccn.loc.gov/2006504536
Retraice (2022/03/07). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.
World Book, E. (2017). World Book Encyclopedia 2018, 22 Volume Set. World Book, Inc., 2018 ed. ISBN: 978-0716601180. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780716601180
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780716601180
https://lccn.loc.gov/2017034899
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 For China, the history that matters is still the `century of humiliation', Michael Zhou, scmp.com, Sep. 28th, 2021.
^3 Sources covering most of what follows: Keay (2009) pp. 455-460, 464-466, 523-529, 534-535; World Book (2017) vol. 3, pp. 502-507; Pillsbury (2015) pp. 27-30; Qiao & Wang (1999) pp. xvii-xxii; Ames (1993); Allison (2018).