A reader posed a relevant question that is on the minds of the American people. She asked, “Are we about to have a recession?” She could not have asked a more timely question. It is extremely relevant in view of the 1.4 percent decline in GDP in the first quarter. We should begin by defining a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recessions and expansions, defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity” that is widespread and has a duration of several months. This definition includes falling GDP but also involves declining...

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