Wins Above Fantasy – Ariel Cohen (@ATCNYC) of FanGraphs, CBS, and Rotoballer joins Van Burnett (@Van_Verified) and Steve Gesuele (@stav8818) to talk about ATC projections, game theory, and how to quantify risk. Useful Ariel Links: ATC Projections and Minimizing Risk, Game Theory Article Ariel’s Draft Approach (3:55) Explaining ATC Projections (6:46) How Projections Adjust for Lockouts or Free Agency (8:20) How Ariel Scores the Best Projections? (12:28) Advice on Using Projections as Draft Prep (21:00) New ATC Risk Metrics (26:35) Francisco Lindor Safe but Pricey? (44:52) Adam Duvall ATC’s #1 Bargain?! (52:58) Aaron Judge Surprisingly Safe (55:09) Ke’Bryan Hayes Safe for Late, Scarce Categories (58:30) Franmil Reyes a Bargain Despite DH (1:03:05) Luis Robert Pricey Do-It-All Player (1:05:00) Jazz Chisholm More Bust Than Boom (1:08:22) Ryan Mountcastle’s Curious Case (1:14:30) Sandy Alcantara’s Outlook From Ariel (1:19:00) Starling Marte’s Speed and Balance (1:23:00) Is Myles Straw’s Running Worth the Risk? (1:26:53)
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