PHIL 6014 (crn: 20919): Spring 2023
Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference
(This is an IN-PERSON class)Wed 4:00-6:30 pm, McBryde 22
There may be opportunities for zooming half-way through the semester.
Syllabus: First Installment
D. Mayo (2018) Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP, 2018): SIST
Several articles will be provided.
| Date | Themes/readings | | 1. 1/18 | Introduction to the Course: How to tell what’s true about statistical inference Reading: SIST: Preface, Excursion 1 Tour I 1.1-1.3, 9-29MISC: NOTES on Excursion 1, Souvenir A Postcard to Send, SIST: Abstracts & Keywords | | 2. 1/25 (R-1) | Error Probing Tools vs Comparative Evidence: Likelihood & ProbabilityWhat counts as cheating?Intro to Logic: arguments validity & soundnessReading: SIST: Excursion 1 Tour II 1.4-1.5, 30-55(R-1) Questions for Session 2: (PDF) MISC: Souvenir B Likelihood versus Error Statistical, Souvenir C A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide, Souvenir D Why We Are So New, | | 3. 2/1 | PhilStat & Formal EpistemologyThe Traditional Problem of InductionIs Probability a Good Measure of Confirmation? Tacking ParadoxReading: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour I: 2.1-2.2, 59-74 Optional: Hawthorne and Fitelson (2004)MISC: Excursion 2 Tour I Blurb & notes | | 4. 2/8 & 5. 2/15 | Falsification, Science vs Pseudoscience, InductionStatistical Crises of Replication in Psychology & other sciences Reading for 2/8: Popper, Ch 1 from Conjectures and Refutations*, Popper TestReading for 2/15: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour II: 2.3-2.7, pages TBA Popper, severity and novelty, array of problems and modelsFallacies of rejection, Duhem’s problem; solving induction nowMISC: SIST Souvenirs (F) Getting Free of Popperian Constraints on Language, (G) The Current State of Play in Psychology, (H) Solving Induction Is Showing Methods with Error ControlExcursioon 2 Tour II Blurb & notes | | Fisher Birthday: February 17: Celebration of N-F wars | | 6. 2/22 & 7. 3/1 | *Ingenious and Severe Tests: Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, Cox: Concepts of TestsReading SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I: 3.1-3.3, 119-163 (trade-offs 328-330)the 1919 eclipse tests; Fisherian and N-P Tests; Frequentist principle of evidence: FEV Apps for statistical testing MISC: Excursion 3 Tour I Blurb & notes |
SPRING BREAK Statistical Exercises While Sunning (March 4-12)
The following is very tentative, and will depend on student interests.
| 8. 3/15 Assign 2 | Confidence & Fiducial Intervals and Deeper Concepts: Higgs Discovery | | 9. 3/22 | Objectivity in Science: Objectivity in Error Statistics & Bayesian Philosophies | | 10. 3/29 Short essay | Bayes factors and Bayes/Fisher Disagreement | | 11. 4/5 | Biasing Selection Effects, P-Hacking, Data Dredging etc. | | 12. 4/12 Assign 3 | Negative Results: Power vs Severity | | 13. 4/19 | Should Statistical Significance Tests be Abandoned, Retired, or Replaced? | | 14. 4/26 | Severity, Sensitivity, Safety: PhilStat and Classical Epistemology | | 15. 5/3 | Current Reforms and Stat Activism: Practicing Our Skills | | Final Paper |