Recorded 05/15/2026, Aired 05/19/2026

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer what a strong El Niño could mean for the monsoon. They do a quick recap of the first half of May. And then it’s off to the races with a look at: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, ONI vs. RONI, ENSO’s scientific history, monsoon and its interaction with East Pacific tropical activity, then finally a winter preview. Should be a fun and interesting few seasons to watch unfold!

Also, Zack gives a plug for the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game which will include a new weekly tournament feature this year.

Mentions

NOAA CPC - ENSO Strength Probabilities

Tropical Tidbits

WebberWeather

NOAA CPC - Outlooks

Google - Weather Lab: Cyclones

Paper “North American Monsoon Response to Antecedent Soil Moisture and Snow in the Colorado Plateau”

Paper “Tropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16”