Welcome to Breakdown Beta, and thanks for volunteering.

Sharing a little bit more about what I’m thinking:

The existing format of The Breakdown isn’t changing. I’m going to continue to combine macro and geopolitics with a bitcoin home team to try to help people understand the big power shifts happening in and to our world

I believe its still really early days in podcasting, in terms of everything from format to business model to best ways to engage with listeners

These formats that I’m experimenting with, if they resonate, could end up either as premium options or simply as bonuses that I do less frequently do create deeper engagement with the Breakdown community as it grows

But I really want to stress this: this is entirely learning and additional content not something that will impact the current format of The Breakdown

So, here’s what I’m currently thinking for a set of experiments. Each week, I’ll do the following, and at the end of the week (over the weekend) send you a short survey. If for whatever week you haven’t had time to review - don’t sweat it!

Week 1 (this week): Curation Week

Will be publishing a short daily email on the handful of most important things I’ve read. This format might evolve a bit but it will be focused on curation

Will include a short podcast about why each of these things is important

Will also kick off a Discord and a Telegram group

Note, I like Discord WAY better than Telegram…but this is an experiment, so...

Week 2: 1 Thought Week

Will still do an email and a mini pod, but it will be about a single news story/topic/piece that related to something happening that day

Week 3: Discussion/Social Week

Newsletter will be curation again, but more focused on discussion rather than news

Podcast, will be getting people to do micro podcasts explaining the idea in a specific tweet they shared

Week 4: Hybrid/Blend of all of these

Based on what I’ve learned/observed

Let me know if you have any questions. And anytime you have an idea throughout this, feel free to hit me up via email nlw@whittemore.io or DM on Twitter @nlw

Now let’s dive in!

The Daily Down - 6.1.20

Topic 1: The Stock Market Disconnect

It has become almost a trope on not only Bitcoin Twitter but FinTwit to remark on the unbelievable disconnect between markets and the real world. Still, even for the cynical, the sight of green markets contrasted with the red blood of protestors and red fire of flames was something to behold.

Some pointed out that in very real terms, the protests add a new dimension to the struggle of companies to recover.

Balaji also argues that we’re radically underestimating the ability for destroyed businesses to just spring back up when this is done.

The only thing that really makes sense to me about the markets right now? Gun stocks are way up.

Topic 2: China’s Recovery Not What It Seems

If one part of the hope for a quick recovery is the Fed’s unlimited printing money blunderbuss, the other is a look to a (according to the narrative) mostly recovered Asia. According to this briefing in the WSJ, that recovery may not be all it’s cracked up to be.

China’s urban unemployment survey showed just 6% of respondents out of work in April, against nearly 15% in the U.S. But most economists don’t believe these two measures are directly comparable, in part because China’s measure misses migrant workers who return to rural areas during downturns.

ANZ Bank estimates that total unemployment and underemployment in China—including involuntary part-time workers and those not actively seeking jobs—was likely around 16% in April. Consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics thinks there were 60 million to 100 million workers away from their jobs in March and April, or 11% to 20% of nonfarm workers.

Topic 3: We’re Not Appreciating The Surveillance Implications

Just touching on this one briefly as its something I’ll certainly come back to, but it strikes me that there are a whooooooooooole lotta folks out there who were screaming about their rights being infringed during lockdowns just a couple weeks ago who are now cheering on a move that will massively increase the surveillance power and significantly threaten key freedoms of Americans.

Topic 4: The Least Fun $10K Bitcoin Of All Time

Bitcoin surged past $10k last night. It’s difficult and dubious to ascribe too much of any short term price movement to macro events (as much as we’d like to), but it’s still hard not to feel like the narrative relevance of a hedge against…well lots of turmoil…is resonating like never before.

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