Bondcast - The Rates Podcast: Recent Episodes
NatWest Corporates and Institutions
In this weekly podcast series, Imogen Bachra along with the NatWest Markets team of rates & markets specialists help investment professionals shape their portfolio views on fixed income, learn how the biggest themes, trends, and events affect bond performance, and get deeper insight into rates markets including the latest analysis & research from the NatWest team.
The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited concerns over higher energy prices, inflation and the outlook for UK growth. But is this shock really comparable to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022?
In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group Chief Economist Seb Burnside to examine how UK consumers and businesses are responding to renewed energy price pressures. Drawing on NatWest’s unique customer data, Seb explains why this time looks fundamentally different from 2022, why households have proved more resilient than expected, and why the biggest risks may lie in business confidence and investment rather than consumer spending.
Key takeaways
- The latest energy shock is significantly smaller than the 2022 crisis.
- Businesses are passing higher costs through more quickly than before.
- Consumers have adapted by reducing fuel consumption rather than simply paying higher prices.
- Mortgage refinancing remains manageable thanks to several years of wage growth.
- Inflation remains a greater concern than an immediate collapse in growth.
- The biggest risk is that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty delays hiring and investment.
- The UK economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than many expected.
Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Guest: Seb Burnside, Chief Economist, NatWest Group
This episode was recorded on 15 July 2026
In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.
Key takeaways
- Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.
- Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.
- The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.
- Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.
- Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.
This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.
The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.
In this week’s episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets.
Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, while political developments in Italy and the UK continue to shape market sentiment.
Key takeaways
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Softer US inflation has significantly reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.
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The Fed’s policy review task forces could have important long-term implications for inflation targeting and monetary policy.
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Markets are increasingly pricing another ECB hike, although the underlying macro data remains relatively benign.
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The Bank of England continues to prioritise evidence of second-round inflation effects before tightening policy further.
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Renewed geopolitical tensions remain the biggest short-term risk for inflation expectations.
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Political developments in both Italy and the UK continue to influence European bond markets, with fiscal policy likely to become a larger market theme later in the year.
Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Guests: Giovanni Zanni, Chief Euro Area Economist
Stuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy
This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead.
Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy off-ramp” rather than the start of a broader regional war, while highlighting the key political and military developments investors should monitor.
The conversation then broadens to explore the US-China relationship, Taiwan, Europe’s strategic position, emerging geopolitical winners, and the underappreciated risks that could shape global markets beyond today’s headlines.
Key takeaways:
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A volatile path to de-escalation: neither the US nor Iran has the appetite for full-scale conflict, but investors should expect an extended period of uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.
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Political calendars matter: US mid-terms, Israel’s elections and domestic political considerations will increasingly shape geopolitical decision-making.
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Taiwan remains a long-term risk: While China’s military modernisation continues, domestic political events in both China and Taiwan may make 2028 a more consequential year than 2027.
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Europe faces strategic choices: As global power becomes increasingly concentrated, Europe must decide what role it wants within a changing international order.
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Middle powers could be winners: Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may benefit from pursuing pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policies amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.
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Technology is reshaping geopolitics: Competition over semiconductors, resilient supply chains and increasingly, space infrastructure, is becoming just as strategically important as traditional energy security.
This episode was recorded on 10 July 2026.
The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.
Key takeaways
- Markets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.
- Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.
- US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.
- Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve’s taskforces.
- UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.
- Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.
Topics covered
- Middle East geopolitical risk and market risk premium
- Oil prices, shipping costs, and the Strait
- US inflation and CPI data
- Federal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony
- UK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointment
- Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech
- Corporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companies
Questions this episode helps answer
- What market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?
Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next.
In this episode, we discuss:
- Middle East tensions and oil prices: why renewed geopolitical risk has pushed markets to reassess inflation and rate expectations.
- ECB pricing: whether recent euro rates repricing has gone too far, and why July still looks too soon for a policy shift.
- Fed outlook: why short-term oil moves may complicate the picture, but still leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode.
- US inflation and growth: why higher oil prices could act as both an inflation impulse and a tax on the consumer.
- Bank of England risks: why the UK still faces the clearest upside risk to policy rates, even if hikes look more likely later than sooner.
- France and OATs: what Marine Le Pen’s 2027 election intentions mean for French political risk and bond spreads.
- UK politics and gilts: why fiscal policy, borrowing risks and autumn policy announcements may matter more than near-term leadership headlines.
- Leverage ratio framework: what the Bank of England’s latest consultation could mean for bank demand for gilts — and why it may not be a game changer yet.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026, and captions are automatically generated.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what’s happening in the real economy?
In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aastha Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.
Key takeaways
- Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.
- Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.
- Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.
- Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.
- Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.
- The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.
- The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.
This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.
The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. It’s a lighter but still market-moving calendar, with UK and French political risks, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee report, the latest signals from the Fed and ECB, and renewed focus on dollar-yen intervention risk.
This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack a deceptively important week for rates markets: a mixed US labour report, softer European inflation, central-bank caution at Sintra, and growing focus on the Bank of England’s balance sheet and gilt market resilience. The big takeaway: markets may be pricing out near-term hikes, but the path ahead is anything but simple.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
This episode was recorded on 2 July 2026.
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In the first episode of Bondcast Speakers’ Corner, host Imogen Bachra is joined by James Bucknall and Iain Budge to discuss one of the most closely watched regulatory topics in UK rates markets: the leverage ratio framework.
With the UK facing sizeable financing needs, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), and growing debate around who will absorb future gilt supply, the conversation explores whether changes to leverage rules could unlock additional demand from bank treasuries and support government funding markets.
Topics raised:
- The Financial Policy Committee's (FPC) July review of the leverage ratio framework is an important event for UK rates markets.
- Changes to leverage rules could support Treasury Bill market liquidity and increase bank demand for gilts.
- The gilt market itself remains resilient, with funding conditions holding up well despite episodes of heightened volatility.
- Any easing of leverage constraints would likely benefit a broader range of assets, not just gilts.
- Regulatory reform may become increasingly relevant as QT progresses and more duration moves onto private sector balance sheets.
Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)
Guests: Iain Budge (Head of Banks and Building Societies Solutions)
James Bucknall (Head of Sterling Interest Rate Trading)
The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.
Recorded on 18 June 2026
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.
This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Palmentier to discuss rates markets in the UK and Europe.
Key topics:
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The sharp repricing lower in UK gilt yields and evolving Bank of England expectations
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Whether markets are becoming overly optimistic on oil, inflation and fiscal risks
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What to watch during next week’s ECB Sintra conference
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Euro area funding plans for the second half of 2026
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What to make of French spreads despite renewed political focus
Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)
Guest: Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist)
This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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This video is about My Movie 1In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.
This week’s episode focuses on a pivotal week for global central banks as markets shift attention away from geopolitical headlines in the Middle East and back toward monetary policy. The discussion covers the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Bank of England’s latest decision, the ECB outlook, and implications for global rates markets.
Key takeaways:
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The Fed turned more hawkish in Warsh’s first meeting, despite no change in rates. Warsh avoided giving forward guidance, but the committee’s dot plot shifted higher, leading markets to price in rate hikes sooner than previously expected.
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Warsh announced five Fed task forces to review communications, balance sheet strategy, data usage, productivity trends, and the inflation framework. While these could eventually support a more dovish policy, they are unlikely to affect near-term decisions.
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We now forecast 50bps of cuts in the US in 2027 rather than beginning in late 2026.
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The Bank of England left policy unchanged and provided little new guidance, but persistent domestic inflation pressures and strong wage growth should not be overlooked.
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The ECB’s June rate hike is viewed as an insurance move rather than the start of an aggressive tightening cycle, with falling oil prices reducing the case for further hikes.
Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)
Guests: Ian VanderHorn (Macro Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist)
This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.
You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Ian VanderHorn and Oriane Parmentier to discuss some key central bank decisions. They examine the latest developments from the ECB, previews next week’s Fed and Bank of England meetings, and explore how geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics and politics are shaping market expectations.
Key topics:
- The ECB remains data-dependent but has not closed the door on additional rate hikes.
- Strong US labour market data complicates the inflation outlook but does not yet point to a significant inflation reacceleration.
- The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh will be closely scrutinised for signs of a shift in policy communication.
- The Bank of England meeting may appear routine but could influence expectations for July and beyond.
- Fiscal and political risks in both the US and UK remain important themes for rates markets in the second half of the year.
This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.
You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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This week on Bondcast, the team examines how fading optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and renewed tariff discussions are influencing rates markets. With major central bank meetings approaching, the discussion also turns to the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Federal Reserve.
Key topics:
- ECB rhetoric has become more hawkish, but policymakers are unlikely to commit to a fixed hiking path.
- The BoE remains cautious, with centrist policymakers showing little urgency to raise rates.
- Fed officials continue to balance inflation and growth risks more carefully than markets may be assuming.
- New US tariff proposals could create future headline risk despite limited immediate economic impact.
- French political risk is gradually moving back onto investors’ radar ahead of 2027.
- Fiscal concerns remain a major structural challenge for the UK, particularly due to high debt servicing costs.
Contributors:
Imogen Bachra (host), Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Oriane Parmentier, European Rates Strategist
Ian VanderHorn, Economics and Market Strategy at NatWest Markets
This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026.
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This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Oriane Parmentier and Stuart Sparks unpack the key macro themes dominating fixed income markets following NatWest’s Official Institutions Conference in Edinburgh. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to drive market volatility, the discussion shifts beyond the headlines to explore how investors are thinking about inflation, growth, central bank reaction functions and fiscal risks across the US, Euro area and UK.
Key themes discussed
US: Affordability versus inflation
Stuart outlines NatWest’s view that the Fed could increasingly focus on growth and real incomes rather than maintaining a rigid 2% inflation target. The team discusses whether higher inflation tolerance may become a feature – rather than a failure – of future policy.
Europe: Conditional ECB and structural steepening
Oriane discusses why the ECB’s tightening cycle may become increasingly data dependent, and why long-term funding pressures linked to defence, AI and energy transition spending could support steeper curves across Europe.
UK: Inflation persistence and fiscal risk
Imogen explains why the UK faces a uniquely challenging combination of sticky inflation, aggressive QT and elevated fiscal sensitivity. The conversation also explores why political uncertainty continues to matter disproportionately for gilt markets.
This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.
You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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In this episode of Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by global market specialist Ian VanderHorn to unpack the growing political and fiscal risks shaping UK and US rates markets – where 5% yields are now a thing.
Key points:
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UK political instability following poor Labour local election results
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Risks of a Labour leadership challenge and implications for gilt markets
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Why markets may be underpricing future UK borrowing
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US tariff refund developments and worsening fiscal dynamics
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Inflation persistence and implications for Treasury yields
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President Trump’s China visit and evolving US-China relations
This episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.
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In this special episode of Bondcast, we replay NatWest's live broadcast fireside chat and Q&A with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who was joined on stage by Imogen Bachra, NatWest's Head of Economics and Markets Strategy.
Recorded on 14 May 2026.
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Parmentier to talk about rates in the UK and the euro area. They focus on:
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The return of market optimism despite geopolitical risk
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ECB outlook and how the market is pricing multiple hikes
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Bank of England pricing, as well as fiscal and political risks in the UK
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Client sentiment on rate rises in major economies
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What to watch next week
This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026.
You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their analysis of three central bank decisions to hold rates.
Key points:
- Federal Reserve rate hike prospects and dissenting opinions
- European Central Bank’s conditional hawkish stance
- The Bank of England’s cautious outlook and market expectations
This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.
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This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their expectations ahead of three imminent central bank meetings.
Key points:
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US economic data and consumer resilience
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UK inflation and labor market dynamics
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Fed, BoE and ECB policy forecasts
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UK political risks and fiscal policy
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Ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on markets
This episode was recorded on 23 April 2026.
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This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack why easing geopolitical tensions have lifted risk assets – while rates remain more cautious.
They explore the growing disconnect between equities and yields, with US data and Fed expectations back in focus as de-escalation shifts attention away from geopolitics. In the UK, the story looks different: persistent inflation pressures, fiscal risks, and gilt market dynamics suggest yields may stay higher for longer.
The episode also dives into a key cross-market debate – why UK and ECB rate expectations are diverging – and whether markets are mispricing the path ahead. Plus, a look at the evolving outlook for the Fed amid political uncertainty, and what a potential shift in leadership could mean for rates.
All wrapped up with the key risks to watch next week, from growth data and central bank signals to supply dynamics and the next phase of geopolitical developments.
This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this week’s Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier talk about the delicate ceasefire between the US and Iran and explore the potential impacts on rates markets, inflation forecasts, and central bank policy expectations in the US, the UK, and Europe.
This episode was recorded on 9 April 2026.
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In this week’s episode of Bondcast, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy Imogen Bachra shares edited highlights from NatWest’s recent client webinar focused on the intersection of geopolitics, economic sentiment and market implications. Joined by Scott Livingstone (NatWest’s International Advisor) and Ross Walker (Global Head of Economics) the discussion covers the ongoing Middle East conflict, its economic impact, and how markets and policymakers may respond.
Key discussion points:
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Current phase of the Middle East conflict and the shift to “Plan B”.
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Three potential US strategies: rapid declaration of victory, compelling Iran to a deal, or a prolonged campaign of military pressure.
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Key indicators to watch: US force positioning, US-Israel alignment, and the actions of regional actors like the Houthis
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Updated growth forecasts and inflation expectations
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Bank of England likely to lean towards modest rate hikes in the second half of the year; limited scope for early cuts.
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Markets are pricing in potential rate hikes, but the timing may be later than current expectations.
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UK gilt markets remain sensitive to fiscal credibility and geopolitical developments.
This episode was recorded on 31 March 2026.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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Despite fears that the war in the Middle East will drive inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Europe held rates this week. To discuss why, Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian VanderHorn (Economics and Market Strategy) and Giovanni Zanni (Chief Euro Area Economist) to dissect the latest policy decisions, and how their forecasts are changing.
This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.
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This week, host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics & Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian Vanderhorn (Macroeconomics Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) to provide a comprehensive update on recent geopolitical swings. They focus on higher oil prices, what this means for inflation, and how bond markets have reacted. Lastly, they share their expectations ahead of central bank decisions next week in the UK, Europe and the US.
This episode was recorded on 11 March 2026.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
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This week’s combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy).
They discussed:
- Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players.
- Political pressure on President Trump to conclude this initial phase swiftly.
- Expected continuation of heightened military activity over the next few days.
- Monitoring Iranian missile, drone, and maritime operations, including possible threats to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Indicators for de-escalation: signs of pragmatic politics or regional diplomatic intervention.
- Importance of maritime security in global energy markets.
- Currency markets responding as expected: dollar strength sterling resilience in cross-currency pairs.
- Volatility in bond markets reflecting both safe-haven demand and concerns over defence spending and future inflation.
- Key market drivers to watch.
This episode was recorded on 3 March 2026.
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In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy.
This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026.
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In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the passing week’s developments in rates markets. In the UK, there was a sizeable amount of data to process, most notably on inflation. But how is the market reacting? Elsewhere, they discuss rising tensions off the coast of Iran, the price of oil and French bond market resilience.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
This episode was recorded on 19 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the latest developments in rates markets. They focus on political uncertainties in the UK, the implications of recent job market reports in the US and the Euro area’s supply situation.
You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
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This episode was recorded on 12 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this week’s Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe.
The Bondcasters kick off this week’s podcast with a review of the Bank of England’s ‘dovish hold’ on 5 February and take a closer look at the drivers behind recent upward drift in yields.
The ECB followed the Bank of England with a rate hold of its own this week – and Oriane digs into what this could mean for the trajectory for rates in the months ahead.
Finally, Ian discusses the latest news out of the Fed: Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell once his term concludes in May. Will Warsh’s past views of Fed’s mandate, and the way it uses its balance sheet, affect the trajectory for rates later this year and beyond? Tune in to find out.
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This episode was recorded on 5 February 2026, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this week’s Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Stuart Sparks and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. Following a much-predicted 25 basis point cut by the Fed, there is still plenty to ponder on US monetary policy going into 2026. And with the Bank of England expected to also cut rates in December, how matched are the two monetary cycles? In Europe, of course, the story is quite different: a glut of supply and rumblings of a rate hike.
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This episode was recorded on 11 December 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this special edition of Bondcast, host Tim Phillips is joined by Paul Robson, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to ask what lies ahead in bond markets in 2026 – a year where the focus will be squarely on the Federal Reserve.
They explore the challenges of elevated sovereign issuance, shifting bond demand, and the global repercussions of fiscal and monetary policy – looking at the UK, the US and Europe in the process. What might steepen curves, and what indicators should we monitor in 2026?
Finally, the panellists each share their bond superhero names from the Agents of Yield universe...
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To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead
This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.
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In this week’s Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Paul Robson to discuss the outlook for next week’s interest rate decision from the Bank of England, as well as the implications of fiscal policy on the UK’s monetary stance. They alsoshare insights from the recent Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a cut, and the European Central Bank's decision to hold rates.
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This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this week’s Bondcast, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderdorn to discuss rates markets. They analyse the UK’s latest inflation figures and prospects for base rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance during government shutdown, and Europe, where inflation is at target, but France’s credit rating has taken a knock.
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This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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This week, host Joann Spadigam and guests explore a change in the fortunes of fixed-income assets, led by gilts and comments from the Bank of England on monetary policy. They also delve into the political landscape in France, highlighting the challenges faced by the new government during the budget season. Plus ça change. Finally, they address the supply-demand dynamics in European markets, emphasising the role of overseas buyers and the concerns regarding duration mismatch in bond issuance.
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This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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With fresh turmoil in the French parliament, this week's host Ian Vanderhorn is joined by guest Oriane Parmentier to talk about what might happen in the days ahead. They also analyse the likely path of OATs and how markets may react to further news. Lastly, they discuss the government shutdown in the US.
This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to analyse what the US Government shutdown means for markets, and the data they rely on. They also delve into the political dynamics behind the shutdown, and the reaction in markets. But it's not all about the US... they also focus on the impact of pension fund transitions in Europe and what this means for bond markets there.
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This episode was recorded on 2 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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In this episode of Bondcast, host Ian Vanderhorn and guests discuss recent monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. And while the policy rates delivered few surprises, there is still much for markets to think about. Paul Robson provides insights into the BoE's interest rate hold and the adjustments in quantitative tightening, while Ian analyses the Fed's recent rate cut, its forward guidance, and whether markets are in line. Finally, Oriane Parmentier concludes with an update on the German DMO's funding strategy and its impact on market dynamics.
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This episode was recorded on 18 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Ian Vanderhorn to discuss key economic indicators and political developments affecting major markets. They focus on the ECB's dovish stance, challenges in France's budget negotiations, the potential for snap elections, Fitch's rating review of France and the current state of the US labour market and inflation. They also discuss expectations for Fed and Bank of England meetings, highlighting the implications of these factors on interest rates and market reactions.
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This episode was recorded on 11 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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As the Bondcast team returns from summer, they discuss recent movements in rates markets, focusing on fiscal concerns in the UK, expectations for the upcoming Autumn Budget, the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve policy, political risks in France, and expectations for the European Central Bank's next meeting.
To read Oriane's take on French political risk, click https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/political-standoff-in-france-scenarios-and-market-implications.html
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This episode was recorded on 4 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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It wasn't the first cut in the cycle, nor at 25 basis points was it the deepest, but there was still plenty to talk about following the Bank of England's (BoE's) reduction to the Base Rate. In this episode, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn to discuss a surprisingly hawkish cut by the BoE, and what impact recent payrolls data in the US might have on the Federal Reserve. They also address the economic outlook for Europe, particularly political risks emanating from France.
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This episode was recorded on 7 August 2025, and captions are automatically generated.
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This week Joann Spadigam, Kevin Cummins and Ian Vanderhorn focus on the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates in the US. They analyse the stance on interest rates, inflation and labour market conditions, as well as the US Treasury's borrowing plans. Lastly they discuss European bond curves and share their views on whether the Bank of England will cut rates next week.
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This episode was recorded on 31 July 2025
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This week, it's all about central banks. Host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Deepika Dayal to discuss the ECB's recent interest rate hold, expectations for the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate decision and the next Bank of England monetary policy decision in August. They also talk trade and delve into US labour data.
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This episode was recorded on 24 July 2025.
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Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn take a closer look at the latest UK data and the potential impact on the Bank of England’s thinking around rate cuts and quantitative tightening.
They also dig into the latest US inflation print and shifts in US trade policy, unpack the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell’s fate, and look ahead to the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting.
This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025.
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In this episode of Bondcast, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks discuss the current state of tariffs and trade deals, particularly in relation to the US and Europe. Might markets be underestimating recent developments? They also analyse why US monetary policy and fiscal policy need to find an equilibrium, and explore the impact of demographic changes on debt sustainability. The discussion also covers the outlook for European markets amid global fiscal pressures and the potential for inflationary trends to complicate the picture.
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This episode was recorded on 10 July 2025.
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This week, Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Ian VanderHorn discuss recent developments in bond markets, focusing on gilt market volatility, the Bank of England's quantitative tightening, the US's big and beautiful budget bill and the European Central Bank's strategy. The discussion highlights the importance of fiscal credibility, market interpretation of economic data, and the potential impact of global factors on European rates.
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This episode was recorded on 03 July 2025.
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This week, Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to discuss the recent geopolitical shifts and the impact on markets, particularly in relation to oil prices and investor sentiment. They delve into central bank policies, focusing on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and explore the implications for economic outlook and investment mindsets. They also cover the European landscape, highlighting supply risks and future projections for bond markets and fiscal policies.
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This episode was recorded on 25 June 2025
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This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson in a Bondcast/Currency Exchange crossover to talk about interest rate holds in the UK and US. Were there any clues about the nature of future decisions? Away from the central banks, they also discuss the impact of military tensions on market sentiment.
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This episode was recorded on 19 June 2025.
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This week, Joann Spadigam, Giovanni Zanni, and Oriane Parmentier discuss the convergence of Italian and French yields. As the spread nears zero, they analyse underlying economics, political dynamics, consider debt sustainability in both countries and discuss the role that ratings agencies play in the market's evaluation.
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This episode was recorded on 18 June 2025
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In this episode, Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks discuss recent economic data in the UK, including inflation and labour market statistics, the implications of the spending review, and expectations for the upcoming Bank of England meeting. They also delve into the gilt market outlook and the impact of Dutch pension reforms on interest rate hedging, and analyse the Fed's perspective on US data.
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This episode was recorded on 12 June 2025.
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This week Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks discuss the recent European Central Bank meeting, interest rate projections, and the implications of quantitative tightening in the UK. They also analyse the current economic landscape in the US, highlighting the challenges for the budget deficit in the months and years ahead.
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This episode was recorded on 5 June 2025.
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With Japan’s bond markets making headlines, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to analyse market sentiment and discuss the broader global impact – including here in the UK. They also discuss the impact of the latest tariff re-de-escalation in the US on Europe, and look ahead to the upcoming ECB meeting in June.
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This episode was recorded on 29 May 2025.
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With high long-end yields in the UK and the US, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to analyse market sentiment, and discuss why inflation is still so crucial to central bank policy. They also talk about the dynamics of European markets, particularly the relative stability of Italian assets.
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This episode was recorded on 22 May 2025.
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This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Paul Robson to discuss the latest news for the UK and US economies. With stronger than expected GDP growth in the UK, and an easing of trade tensions between the US and China, what next for monetary policy and market sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic? They also examine the European economic landscape and the potential effects of fiscal policy and trade negotiations on growth and inflation.
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This episode was recorded on 15 May 2025
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This week, Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to talk the hawk following recent Bank of England and Fed interest rate decisions. They also examine the political landscape in Germany and its potential impact on fiscal policy, as well as the European Central Bank's stance in light of current market expectations.
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This episode was recorded on 08 May 2025.
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In this episode Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield discuss the latest developments in tariffs, the future of Fed chair Jerome Powell, and the recent UK gilt remit revision. They explore how market reactions are influenced by tariff negotiations, the implications of Powell's potential removal, and the Bank of England's approach to monetary policy amid changing economic conditions.
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This episode was recorded on 24 April 2025.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield, Stuart Sparks and Joann Spadigam to discuss rates and FX markets in the UK, US and Europe. What can we expect next, and where might we go from here in terms of central bank monetary policy decisions?
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This episode was recorded on 10 April 2025.
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In this crossover episode of Bondcast and Currency Exchange, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier to discuss all things tariffs, and the political situation in France. It's not just markets that are surrounded by uncertainty. How the Fed will dictate interest rates now seems less clear than it did just a few weeks ago, owing to likely higher inflation alongside weaker growth expectations. In France meanwhile, will Marine Le Pen's criminal conviction lead to a crisis?
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This episode was recorded on 3 April 2025.
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This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks discuss the UK Spring Statement, its implications for the UK fiscal situation, and the upcoming tariff announcements affecting Europe. They also analyse the latest profit and productivity data from the US, providing insights into market reactions.
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This episode was recorded on 27 March 2025.
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This week, Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to discuss recent interest rate decisions at the Bank of England and the Fed. They also talk the upcoming Spring Statement in the UK, fiscal developments in the Euro area, and the Federal Reserve’s announcement regarding quantitative tightening.
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This episode was recorded on 20 March 2025
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In a week of shifting market sentiment, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Joann Spadigam to discuss rates in the US, Europe and the UK. All eyes are on the Fed and the European Central Bank as they continue to scrutinise data, amid fiscal and economic uncertainties. And it's more wait and see for the Bank of England.
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This episode was recorded on 13 March 2025.
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With International Women's Day upon us, this week's all-female line-up tackles the latest news from rates markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates to 2.5%, but it is Europe's revised defence budget that is the real focus for markets. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve looks to be out of its cutting cycle for 2025 and in the UK what are we to make of modest yield rises?
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NB. This episode was recorded on 6 March 2025
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Welcome to a special edition of Bondcast, where we dive into the geopolitical events shaping markets. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Scott Livingstone, NatWest Group’s international advisor, and Bondcast regular Joann Spadigam, to discuss the intersection of geopolitics and interest rates.
Key topics include the possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal, the future of European defence spending, China’s strategic silence and the Iran factor.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 26 February 2025
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In this episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Joann Spadigam to discuss the latest news, events and data shaping rates markets. In Europe they cover the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European defence spending and the implications of the upcoming German elections. Elsewhere they analyse the Fed's wait-and-see approach, and the current economic data and inflation outlook in the UK.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 20 February 2025
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Joanne Spadigam, and Deepika Dayal discuss the latest trends in rates markets, focusing on inflation data, labour market dynamics, and central bank policies in the US and UK. They analyse the implications of recent inflation reports, the Fed's potential reactions, and the Bank of England's stance after last week's interest rate decision. They also cover the recent UK gilt syndication, as well as the economic outlook for the euro area and the European Central Bank’s neutral rate estimates.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 13 February 2025
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In this episode, Imogen Bachra, Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier discuss the latest developments in rates markets, focusing on trade war dynamics, tariff policies and the implications for markets. They also discuss the recent rate cut by the Bank of England, the evolving economic data landscape in the US, and the fragile French political backdrop.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 6 February 2025
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This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk all things rates and, uniquely for the team, how change may be afoot for pensions in the Netherlands and the UK. While the Fed predictably held rates in the US, the ECB predictably cut them in Europe, but what to make of the data supporting these moves? What of terminal rates?
If you have a view of where UK rates will be at the end of ’25, please vote in our LinkedIn survey, and we’ll discuss the results in next week’s episode.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 30 January 2025.
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This week the Bondcast team discusses strong wage inflation data in the UK, which, combined with sluggish output growth, poses a policy dilemma for the Bank of England. Elsewhere they examine recent US data, Donald Trump’s plans and whether the strong economic start for the year will affect the Fed’s terminal rate for the year. Plus, what to expect ahead of the European Central Bank’s upcoming rates decision?
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NB. This episode was recorded on 23 January 2025.
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With soft-ish inflation prints in the UK and beyond, are we at the start of a trend? Separating the signals from the noise this week are host Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Joann Spadigam, who share news and views on all things rates - including their takes on when we may see further central bank cuts, and what to make of supply dynamics in Europe.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 16 January 2025.
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It’s early 2025 and yields are as high as December’s party spirits. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam to talk UK government bond moves, a cutting-cautious Fed, and a dovish European Central Bank keen to boost economic growth.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 9 January 2025.
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Following a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins and Ross Walker to dissect the nuance of central bank positions. As we enter 2025, how are markets thinking about key economic data prints? And what are the likely cutting patterns as we proceed further into easing cycles?
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NB. This episode was recorded on 12 December 2024.
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This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by guests Oriane Parmentier and Kevin Cummins to update on recent events shaping rates markets. All eyes, of course, are currently on France, where political turmoil is influencing spreads, while in the euro area what can we expect ahead of a rates decision next week? Finally, they discuss what to expect from US employment data, and how the Fed may react.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 4 December 2024
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In this special edition of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss some key themes from our Year Ahead 2025 report, an in-depth guide to what will be shaping economies and markets over the coming 12 months. Following a year of change at the ballot box, new governments have made political promises and fiscal commitments, with increases to government debt on the horizon. How these decisions affect inflation and therefore terminal bank rates is an open-ish question… but the answer is not lower. Finally, they discuss the political backdrop going into 2025, and crucially, how markets are thinking about Trump 2.0.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 21 November 2024
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This week it’s a podcast crossover, as Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield deliver a Bondcast-meets-Currency Exchange special. High on the agenda is what the magnitude of Donald Trump’s election victory means for currencies and policy rate decisions, both in the near and long-term, as the US faces tax cuts and importers look set for tariffs. Away from the polls, both the Fed and the Bank of England cut rates this week by 25 basis points. To what extent were they both doing so with revised outlooks for future inflation? Listen in to find out.
This episode was recorded on 8 November 2024
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Join host Joann Spadigam, and guests Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker as they analyse a busy week for rates markets. In the UK, markets are processing a higher than expected set of Government borrowing needs, so what might this mean for the Bank of England’s terminal rate in 2025? And in the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) may also look to cut less aggressively next year. Meanwhile, in the US there’s a presidential election/Fed decision mashup for markets to consider, with both long- and short-term implications for the economy.
We did say it’s been busy.
This episode was recorded on 31 October 2024 🎃👻🕸
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This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Giovanni Zanni to discuss rates moves in the US, the UK and Europe. What was an un-callable US presidential race based on polling data has become a tussle in betting markets, with Trump the clear favourite. Meanwhile in the UK, the prospect of new fiscal rules is giving markets something to think about, and in Europe dovish tones are affecting the rates outlook.
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NB: This was recorded on 24 October 2024.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised few by cutting its base rate by 25 basis points (bp) on Thursday, but was there anything to learn from the messaging around its decision? This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam scrutinise the latest from rates markets and central banks, where data dependence on inflation remains à la mode in the UK and Europe. Lastly, they look ahead to British Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first Budget, and whether the market may be surprised by the overall funding requirement. (Hint: they think so).
This episode was recorded on 17 October 2024.
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This week the Bondcast team unpicks higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index data in the US, and shares where they think rates will go from here. In the UK, recent yield increases have met our targets, but how might upcoming data next week affect the curve? They also debrief on the French Budget and look ahead to the next European Central Bank decision on rates.
This episode was recorded on 10 October 2024.
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This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam ruminate about rates markets on either side of the Channel. In the UK, markets appear to be waking up to fiscal concerns, and have had to take into account recent remarks from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, how might the euro area's falling inflation affect future decisions on rates? Finally, to France, where markets are waiting for next week's budget.
This episode was recorded on 3 October 2024.
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This week, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker to discuss all things rates. In Europe, what is the market's attitude towards October's European Central Bank meeting, and what is happening to spreads in euro-denominated debt? In the UK the Labour conference had analysts pouring over signs for a shift in fiscal policy, while the Fed's focus on employment numbers takes centre stage in the US.
This episode was recorded on 26 September 2024.
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This week Ross Walker and Kevin Cummins discuss central bank rates decisions in the US and the UK. Markets had all caught up by the time the Fed announced its 50 basis point cut, but remain less certain about further cuts in 2024 and how to interpret employment figures. In the UK, the Bank of England's decision to hold rates was arguably hawkish, but spurred by that familiar bugbear... high services inflation. Looking ahead, how might the UK's fiscal approach affect the terminal rate of this current easing cycle?
This episode was recorded on 19 September 2024.
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With the cutting cycle among major central banks under way, Giovanni Zanni, Kevin Cummins and Paul Robson talk all things rates markets. Ahead of the much anticipated rate decision at the Fed next week, the mood is very much for a 25 basis point (bp) cut in the US – even if the door is open just enough to allow for 50. In the UK, the next decision on rates seems more finely balanced following a close decision to cut in August. In Europe, a further cut of 25bp on Thursday seemed almost inevitable. Looking longer term, however, where might terminal rates eventually settle?
NB: This was recorded on 12 September 2024.
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In an early ode to autumn, our Bondcast trio predict a season of missed targets and not-so-mellow economic conditions. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to catch up on how late summer’s fruitful developments have affected bond markets, and where they go from here. In the US, all eyes are on jobs numbers and whether the Fed will cut in 50 or 25bp clips. And in France it’s bonjour to incoming PM Michel Barnier… but will his appointment soothe the political pangs? The early protests suggest not. Not so much an ode to autumn as an oh dear.
NB: This was recorded on 5 September 2024.
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It’s been a big week for rates markets. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Kevin Cummins dig into the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, and whether markets are right to expect a cut as soon as September. Speaking of cuts, we take a closer look at the Bank of England’s decision to trim 25 basis points off the Bank Rate – the first cut in 4 years – and what that means for UK interest rates in the months ahead. Finally, the Bondcast crew dig into recent euro area GDP and inflation figures and discuss what that means for future rate cuts from the European Central Bank.
We’ll be taking a break from the podcast the rest of August, but we’ll see you all again in September.
NB: This was recorded on 1 August 2024.
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Joe Biden’s withdrawal from this year’s presidential race means “Veep” Kamala Harris will likely face Donald Trump. How are markets affected? This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss not only US politics, but the run-up to another finely-balanced interest rates decision in the UK and the impact of pension reform in France.
This episode was recorded on 25 July 2024.
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Not so good news for the doves on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, as persistent services inflation may yet stall an August rates cut. This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam read the runes on UK and European markets, and share their views on yield curves.
This episode was recorded on 18 July 2024.
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This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk rates news in Europe and the US. With more good data on inflation, might the Fed change its stance on when to reduce rates? Maybe, maybe not, but with more data on the way, it can bide its time. In France, what does the latest round of election news mean for euro spreads?
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This episode was recorded on 11 July 2024.
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While the UK election results lit few fireworks for markets, the same can’t be said of political events elsewhere. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to talk about the fiscal challenge facing the UK, in the US how betting markets view a Joe Biden victory (or drop-out) amid many permutations, and in France what we can expect from the second round of voting in the parliamentary elections.
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This episode was recorded on 5 July 2024.
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Ahead of elections in France and the UK, how are markets pricing in possible outcomes? This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam consider how bonds are being affected and what clues markets are looking for. While they’re confident that a Labour victory has been priced in to current spreads, across the channel there is far less certainty about the eventual political outcome.
This episode was recorded on 27 June 2024.
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With inflation approaching its target, what were the prospects that the Bank of England would cut its base rate? Not much, according to Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam, who this week look at both the reasons for a hold, and whether the Monetary Policy Committee is becoming just a bit more dovish. Hint: it is. Away from the UK, they cover elections in France and Germany’s Q3 funding update.
This episode was recorded on 20 June '24.
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This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Joann Spadigam to talk all things bonds. From the political backdrop affecting market confidence to the details of dot plots, the trio cover major developments in the US, the UK and the eurozone.
This episode was recorded on 13 June '24.
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At 25bps the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first interest cut may not have been the deepest, but the ECB is still ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England in its easing cycle. Looking to the prospects of further cuts in the year, Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins go beyond Europe and focus on how the Fed is being guided by data.
This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024.
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This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss major bond markets. High on the agenda is what to expect in the run up to a likely cut in rates next week by the European Central Bank. They also discuss how elections are shaping rates markets and ask why quantitative tightening is a growing topic.
This episode was recorded on 30 May 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is again joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss not just rates, but how political developments in the UK and Europe are affecting markets. In the UK, the starting gun has fired for a July general election, while in the EU, parliamentary elections are also looming. Away from the ballot box, it's starting to feel like monetary Groundhog Day: stronger than expected print data looks likely to keep rates higher for longer.
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This episode was recorded on 23 May 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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This episode was recorded on 15 May 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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This week, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and John Briggs discuss how markets are digesting this week’s ‘dovish hold’ from the Bank of England, and the pace of UK monetary policy easing in the months ahead. They also share their thoughts on monetary policy divergence across regions and the impact on bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 9 May 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam to discuss how major central banks are approaching monetary policy. In the US, the Fed held rates and expectations for a cut are further adapting to strong inflation data. The picture is quite different in Europe, while in the UK, all eyes are on the Bank of England's next meeting.
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This episode was recorded on 2 May 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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This week Imogen Bachra, John Briggs and Joann Spadigam discuss market surprises, with strong inflation in the US, strong purchasing manager sentiment in Europe and a strong suggestion from the Bank of England's Huw Pill that UK rates may not fall before June. Aside from the immediate figures and updates, they discuss supply, long-term debt qualms and who's led by the Fed.
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NB: This was recorded on 25 April 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by John Briggs and Joann Spadigam to discuss bond market movements. With scant evidence of grand disinflation in the US, the panel ask whether the Fed may cut rates at all this year, and what the markets may price in. In the UK, what should we make of recent inflation data which contained upside surprises, while in Europe, how acceptable are Italian and French national debt levels?
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NB: This was recorded on 18 April 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword.
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N.B This was recorded on 11 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
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This week host Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins review their expectations for central bank rate cuts later this year. While economic data have surprised in the US, they don't think it's enough to dramatically change the Fed's position. But with more data on the way, it's a case of wait and see. In Europe, the broad inflation news is in line with the European Central Bank's expectations, and an April cut still seems unlikely.
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NB: This was recorded on 4 April 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk about the latest developments in the US, the UK and Europe. With rates on hold, however, there is still lots for market participants to mull over from recent central bank updates, as the risks of inflation persist. June is still on the table for the Fed's first rate cut, while at the Bank of England no member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike. From Europe, we hear about what clients have to say.
Bondcast is away for Good Friday but will return on 5 April.
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NB: This was recorded on 21 March 2024.
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This week Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi dissect US inflation figures and look ahead to a Fed meeting that promises an update on Quantitative Tightening policy, among other things. Will it be enough to upset the relative calm of late and move markets? They also analyse what may happen next week in the UK and look at whether the European Central Bank is still expected to cut rates in June.
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NB: This was recorded on 14 March 2024.
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This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi share key takeaways from recent events in the UK, Europe and the US. At the European Central Bank, did new inflation figures give a better indication of when it might cut rates? In the UK, a predictable Spring Budget yielded little drama for markets, while in the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress.
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NB: This was recorded on 7 March 2024.
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This week Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to look ahead to the UK Spring Budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may decide to reduce some taxes, the country's modest fiscal headroom means there is little likelihood of a dramatic financial policy change. Elsewhere, they discuss personal consumption expenditure data in the US, and inflation figures from Europe.
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NB: This was recorded on 29 February 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam discuss their views on policy developments in UK and European bond markets. In the former, fiscal headroom may not have a dramatic affect on gilt issuances, even as the market is becoming more retail friendly. In Europe, the European Central Bank is growing wary of cutting rates too early, while PMI data suggests a deviation between German and France economic expectations. And how are retail issuances performing in Italy?
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NB: This was recorded on 22 February 2024.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam debrief after a big data week in the UK and US and discuss the impact on our rates outlook. They also take a closer look at some new thinking published this week around the ECB’s operational framework.
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NB: This was recorded on 15 February 2024.
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This week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss how their views on the market differ from the businesses they have been speaking with recently. In the UK, the data appears to support our modestly hawkish view, while in the US non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed will hold rates for now. In Europe, could French sovereign spreads be too tight, and Spanish too wide? For Italy, it's all about risk.
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NB: This was recorded on 8 February 2024.
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Major central banks have been somewhat taciturn about the prospect of rate cutting, so did that change during the past week? Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam analyse recent events, data and market views in a week when the Fed and the Bank of England held rates - and explained their decisions to do so. In Europe, inflation appears to be falling faster than the European Central Bank's projections suggested, while German and Italian syndications caught many by surprise. Might Spain and Belgium be next?
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NB: This was recorded on 1 February 2024.
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Join host Imogen Bachra, dovish Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the effect that central bank moves are having on bond markets. In Europe, markets seemed to have reacted strongly to a somewhat benign meeting at the European Central Bank, while in the US, all eyes are on the Fed's meeting next week. Could we see a substantial change in the policy statement? In the UK, meanwhile, all eyes are on how markets may respond to the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
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NB: This was recorded on 25 January 2024.
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Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how recent jobs and inflation data is affecting markets. In the UK, slightly higher than expected inflation news spurred a sell-off in bonds, while in the US, there was some strong consumer news to contend with. It's been relatively quiet of late in Europe, but there is some speculation that the European Central Bank is becoming less dovish.
Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.
NB: This was recorded on 18 January 2024.
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Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the back and forth of market moves and central bank motions over interest rates. In the US, how will Quantitative Tightening sit with rate cutting? They also discuss the fiscal situation ahead of a likely election in the UK, while in Europe the overall monetary picture is becoming more dovish, amid record levels of supply.
Remember to hit 'follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.
NB: This was recorded on 11 January 2024.
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Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they examine how markets started 2024. In the US, the Fed is not giving out much new information of when interest rate cuts may begin, though it has released some more detailed notes on quantitative tightening and balance sheet rundown. In the UK, what's driving weakness in gilts, and may stickier core inflation still keep rates higher for longer? In the EU it's arguably a simpler picture, with markets poised for cuts from the European Central Bank.
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NB: This was recorded on 4 January 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
The Bank of England (BoE), the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) shocked few by collectively holding rates this week, but that doesn’t mean the meetings were without their surprises. Join host Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how markets reacted to the news, and identify signs of when rates may begin to fall.
Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.
NB: This was recorded on 14 December 2023
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...well, maybe not so great, but this week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss the market mood ahead of announcements by all three of the major central banks: the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. Elsewhere they talk about events in money market funds and the importance of the overnight rate.
Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.
NB: This was recorded on 6 December 2023.
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Join host Imogen Bachra and guests Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss signs that some central banks may cut their base rates sooner than expected. Could the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) do this as soon as March 2024? Faster falls in inflation in the US and the eurozone raise the possibility. But in the UK? Not so much.
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NB: This was recorded on 30 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Join host Imogen Bachra and guest Joann Spadigam as they discuss how customers have responded to our Year Ahead 2024 report, and analyse the contents of the Autumn Statement. Elsewhere they also look at supply data in the eurozone.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
The expected divergence of monetary cycles presents both challenges and opportunities for fixed income investors and issuers, especially at a time when fiscal policy remains abundant. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi outline where they see policy rates heading next year, what this means for the direction of travel for yields and the shape of the curve, and where cross-market opportunities lie.
Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.
NB: This was recorded on 13 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
fter softening employment data was released in the US, host Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi analyse how markets have been reacting to both this news as well as to other events. In the UK, there are expectations for the Autumn Statement to contend with, while in the euro area, markets are pricing close to 100bps for cuts.
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NB: This was recorded on 9 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
As both the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) held rates this week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to pick over the actions, motives and views held among central banks. How are markets reacting and are worries being alleviated? In Europe, rate cuts may come earlier than previously expected.
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NB: This was recorded on 2 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Fresh after this week's European Central Bank meeting, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk all things rates, bonds and balance sheets. As it turns out, many of the market dramas in recent months have somewhat dissipated, whether that's in the euro area, the UK or the US. So are we in for an extended period of rate holds? Only time, and more importantly data, will tell.
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NB: This was recorded on 26 October 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi catch up after another volatile week in rates markets. They digest some of the latest data prints and discuss the potential impact on key central bank decisions in the weeks ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 19 October 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Amid broad consensus that base interest rates have neared their peaks, focus is on when central banks will begin to cut, and by how much. Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to discuss rates, economics and yields in the UK, the euro area and the US.
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NB: This was recorded on 12 October 2023.
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Bond yields have risen in the past week, especially at the shorter end of curves. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss whether current levels will persist, especially in the UK. Elsewhere, German bunds have hit our 3% target, and in the US can markets price in messages coming from the Fed?
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NB: This was recorded on 05 October 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
The bonds markets have been a bit wild of late, leading to some speculation about oversupply in the market for US treasuries and others to look closely at the euro area market. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss the effects on both the front and tail ends of yield curves, minimum reserve requirements and developments at the Bank of England.
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NB: This was recorded on 28 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Neither the Fed or the Bank of England increased rates this week, after last week's dovish hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss the impact of these hawkish holds on markets and the extent of possible cuts in 2024. Will the narrative of 'higher for longer' be challenged? And how may the central banks reduce their balance sheets?
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NB: This was recorded on 21 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
On the back of the European Central Bank's "dovish hike", host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss the impact on markets, and whether the Fed and the Bank of England may follow suit. Behind the question of whether interest rates have hit their peak is how prolonged that peak may be. Will sharp rises be matched by precipitous falls to create an Everest-like trend of rates? Or will the peak really be a plateau that more resembles Table Mountain?
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NB: This was recorded on 14 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
Following a three-week summer break, Bondcast is back. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to catch up on what happened while we were away. Looking ahead, they discuss prospects for next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, changes in the US yield curve, and how many times the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes refer to wage growth – which is a lot.
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NB: This was recorded on 7 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after yet another base rate hike from the Bank of England. They also discuss US bond supply, inflation dynamics in Europe – and the impact on fixed income markets as we move through the final weeks of summer.
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NB: This was recorded on 3 August 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease note that captions are automatically generated.
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale take stock of the latest rate hikes from the Fed and the European Central Bank and discuss the trajectory for rates going forward. They also look ahead to the Bank of England meeting in the week ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 27 July 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigm, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the impact of the recent downside UK inflation surprise on the fixed income outlook. They also take a closer look at what markets should expect from the upcoming European Central Bank and Fed meetings.
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NB: This was recorded on 20 July 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale discuss our latest views on inflation and potential implications for the fixed income outlook in the months ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 13 July 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Kevin Cummins, and Giles Gale discuss shifting rate hike expectations in the UK, the impact of the latest US data deluge on market expectations, and potential fixed income market risks to look out for in Europe as we move into summer.
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NB: This was recorded on 6 July 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam examine Andrew Bailey's comments in Sintra, Portugal. They also discuss the flattening of yield curves in the UK and look at how markets reacted to new employment data in the US.
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NB: This was recorded on 29 June 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and John Briggs debrief after the Bank of England's surprise Bank Rate hike. They also take a closer look at what Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s "dovish defence" means for rates going forward, and discuss the enduring hawkishness of European Central Bankers.
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NB: This was recorded on 22 June 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after the Fed's "Freudian Skip" and the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate hike decision. They also look ahead to the Bank of England meeting next week.
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NB: This was recorded on 15 June 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take stock ahead of the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings next week and share their views on what markets should expect.
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NB: This was recorded on 8 June 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take stock of the key themes and events driving the global fixed income rally this past week and discuss the outlook for rates markets from here.
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NB: This was recorded on 1 June 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
In the latest episodes of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Kevin Cummins dig into the latest inflation dynamics and discuss potential implications for the rates outlook.
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NB: This was recorded on 25 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take a closer look at the latest US debt ceiling drama and the impact on fixed income. They also dig into what the latest UK labour market data could mean for rates and the Bank of England’s policy tightening path.
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NB: This was recorded on 18 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Ross Walker, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after the latest Bank of England rate decision and discuss the path for rates markets from here. They also take a closer look at the implications of the latest US Core Price Inflation (CPI) print for bond markets, and discuss potential risks around sovereign ratings downgrades in Europe.
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NB: This was recorded on 11 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi look ahead to May's Bank of England MPC meeting. They debrief after two very different rate hikes were delivered in the US and Europe and discuss the potential implications for bond markets from here.
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NB: This was recorded on 4 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debate whether markets are right to price rate hikes at the upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings and discuss the trajectory of rates from May onward.
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debate whether markets are right to price rate hikes at the upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings and discuss the trajectory of rates from May onward.
Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com.
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Kevin Cummins wade through the latest inflation data and discuss the potential impact on monetary policy decisions at key central bank meetings in May – and beyond.
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NB: This was recorded on 20 April 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take stock after a week of fresh central bank minutes and speeches. They also delve into some of the key takeaways for bond markets from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring meetings this past week.
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NB: This was recorded on 13 April 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi take a closer look at this weeks' labour market data in the US, the potential implications of pension sector reform in the UK, and the impact of political currents on rates markets in Europe.
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NB: This was recorded on 5 April 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Kevin Cummins, and Giles Gale debrief after another volatile week. They discuss the latest Bank of England and Fed meetings and take a closer look at the trajectory of rates from here.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 March 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale discuss central bank decision-making following a week that saw financial instability take centre stage in global markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 16 March 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale discuss the upcoming Spring Statement and revised gilt supply forecast in the UK, the latest thinking from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and our perspectives on the upcoming European Central Bank meeting.
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NB: This was recorded on 9 March 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale discuss the big drivers for UK gilt supply in the coming months, and the impact of upcoming data prints on our views in Europe and the US.
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NB: This was recorded on 1 March 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale give their views on current turnaround signals, latest central bank speak and why stronger data doesn’t imply a more hawkish policy path than markets are pricing.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 February 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Joann Spadigam debrief after a week of big data releases and take a closer look at bond supply.
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NB: This was recorded on 16 February 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Joann Spadigam share their perspectives on how markets should interpret the hawkish hints dropped by central bankers in recent days and look ahead to some key data releases in the weeks ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 9 February 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after a busy week of global central bank meetings, and discuss what the latest round of hikes mean for the path of interest rates from here.
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NB: This was recorded on 2 February 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Kevin Cummins share their expectations for a busy week of global central bank meetings and key risks to the outlook.
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NB: This was recorded on 26 January 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi dig into an expansive set of factors driving fixed income markets this week including the Bank of Japan's commitment to yield curve control, new data prints in the UK, falling energy costs, the US debt ceiling, and supply.
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NB: This was recorded on 19 January 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Giles Gale, Ross Walker and Jan Nevruzi take a look at some of the factors shaping the inflation outlook, the potential impact on monetary policy, and what all that means for fixed income.
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NB: This was recorded on 12 January 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss some of the big drivers for fixed income markets in the first few weeks of 2023.
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NB: This was recorded on 5 January 2023.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and John Briggs debrief after a busy week of central bank meetings and discuss the implications for fixed income markets heading in to 2023.
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NB: This was recorded on 15 December 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the key factors for markets to watch ahead of a trifecta of important central bank meetings in the week ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 8 December 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the latest US data print, the unwinding of post-mini budget bond buying in the UK, and what the odd price action in Europe says (and doesn't say) about the bigger picture.
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NB: This was recorded on 30 November 2022.
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In this special Year Ahead episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss their views on the big themes and events driving fixed income markets in 2023.
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NB: This was recorded on 21 November 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the latest US inflation print and the impact on investor sentiment in Europe, and look ahead to the UK Budget announcement and slew of data releases in the week ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 10 November 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after a busy week of central bank meetings and interest rate hikes, and take a closer look at what fixed income markets should expect heading into December.
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NB: This was recorded on 3 November 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after the European Central Bank meeting and look ahead at what to expect from the Bank of England and the Fed next week.
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NB: This was recorded on 27 October 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi digest the latest twist in the UK political landscape and take a closer look at what the start of quantitative tightening could mean for bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 20 October 2022.
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The UK continues to dominate global markets, but it is not quiet elsewhere either. In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi demystify what fiscal u-turns, buybacks still-high US inflation and central bank rhetoric signal for rates investors.
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NB: This was recorded on 13 October 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take a closer look at rising yields in the UK, renewed discussion of central bank policy pivots in the US, and talk through our new bund yield forecast.
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NB: This was recorded on 6 October 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and John Briggs debrief after a volatile week in UK markets to understand the global, medium-term implications of recent policy moves there.
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NB: This was recorded on 29 September 2022.
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In this special crossover episode of Bondcast and the Weekly Watch, John Briggs, Jan Nevruzi, and Paul Robson debrief after a series of (very different) interest rate hikes in the US and UK, and discuss the impact on bond markets and FX.
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NB: This was recorded on 22 September 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Giles Gale, Jan Nevruzi, and Ross Walker discuss how the latest US inflation print, the UK fiscal outlook, and euro area energy policy could affect the monetary policy outlook -- and key implications for bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 15 September 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the European Central Bank's latest presser, explore impact of the Truss government's energy support package on gilt supply and the rates outlook, and share a sneak peek at what investors can expect from next week's US inflation print.
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NB: This was recorded on 8 September 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi dig into a deluge of recently released data, discuss the potential impact of more fiscal firepower in the UK on gilt supply and rates, and read the tea leaves on the pace of rate hikes in the euro area.
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NB: This was recorded on 18 August 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take a closer look at how bond markets are digesting the latest US inflation print, the path for interest rates in the UK, and the potential impact of volatile global energy prices on fixed income.
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NB: This was recorded on 11 August 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi discuss the latest Bank of England meeting and what the Bank Rate hike means for markets and future monetary policy, and digest the recent snapback in US rates.
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NB: This was recorded on 4 August 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Kevin Cummins, and Giovanni Zanni digest the latest Fed meeting and discuss the path for future rate hikes, the European political landscape, and our expectations for the August Bank of England meeting.
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NB: This was recorded on 28 July 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giovanni Zannidebrief after the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, dive into a deluge of recently released UK data, and take bets on whether the Fed will changed course on the road to higher interest rates.
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NB: This was recorded on 21 July 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the impact of the latest US inflation print, fears over European gas supplies, and UK political volatility on rates markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 14 July 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the market reaction to the political drama that unfolded in the UK, the latest ECB minutes, and our revised outlook for US rates.
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NB: This was recorded on 7 July 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi read the tea leaves on Sintra central banking conference, digest the latest inflation prints, and discuss the impact of recessionary risks on rates.
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NB: This was recorded on 30 June 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi talk about the hand-off from inflation to growth as the big theme driving market behaviour this week.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 June 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi make sense of the latest bout of market volatility following a trio of central bank meetings.
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NB: This was recorded on 16 June 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Kevin Cummins digest the European Central Bank's recent hawkish shift and discuss what to expect from the Bank of England and the Fed in June.
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NB: This was recorded on 9 June 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the impact of a fresh UK fiscal injection on the outlook for bonds, the latest US Fed minutes, and monetary policy in Europe.
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NB: This was recorded on 26 May 2022.
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In this special crossover episode of Bondcast and The Weekly Watch, John Briggs, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the latest UK inflation prints and job data, the pace of US rate hikes, and the impact of the end of quantitative tapering in Europe.
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NB: This was recorded on 19 May 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the latest US inflation print and share perspectives on market pricing in Europe and the UK.
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NB: This was recorded on 11 May 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the most recent Fed and Bank of England meetings, and read the tea leaves on European Central Bank policy in the months ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 5 May 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take a closer look at what we expect from the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings, and the impact of growth concerns on the stagflation debate.
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NB: This was recorded on 27 April 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi take a closer look at how the shift higher in UK and European bond yields might play out for markets, and discuss why the US is bucking the trend.
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NB: This was recorded on 21 April 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giovanni Zanni take a closer look at how markets (and central banks) are digesting shifting global inflation dynamics, and the risk landscape in Europe.
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NB: This was recorded on 13 April 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and Giles Gale discuss the most recent Fed minutes release and potential implications for other regions and bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 7 April 2022.
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In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the impact of higher inflation on yield curves, bond supply and pricing, and economic growth expectations.
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NB: This was recorded on 30 March 2022.
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Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe and Brian Daingerfield for the US – discuss the resurgence in European bond supply, renewed inflationary pressures, and the revised gilt supply forecast.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 March 2022.
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Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss central bank rate forecasts hot off the heels of the latest Bank of England and Fed meetings, and the implications for bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 17 March 2022.
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Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe, Jan Nevruzi for the US, and special guest Brian Daingerfield – discuss the European Central Bank’s hawkish surprise, what to expect from the Fed, and the outlook for oil & gas.
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NB: This was recorded on 10 March 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
John Briggs and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the impact of the Ukraine invasion on bond markets, central banks, and what recent market dynamics suggest about the path for volatility in the days and weeks to come.
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NB: This was recorded on 3 March 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
Could the escalating crisis in Ukraine sway central banks to tweak their monetary tightening plans? Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the impact of rising geopolitical risk on market pricing and central bank policy expectations.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 February 2022.
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It’s been a week full of policy chatter across the globe. Get our take on next central bank rate moves and how markets might react from the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giovanni Zanni for Europe, Ross Walker for the UK and Jan Nevruzi for the US.
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NB: This was recorded on 17 February 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
In this episode of Bondcast, guest host John Briggs and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss whether markets are fairly pricing the rate hike and inflation outlook.
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NB: This was recorded on 9 February 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of specialists – Ross Walker for the UK, Giles Gale for Europe, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss our new rate hike expectations across the G3 and potential implications for bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 3 February 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Theo Chapsalis for the UK, Giles Gale for Europe, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss our new rate hike expectations in the US, potential implications for UK and European bond markets, and rising geopolitical volatility.
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NB: This was recorded on 27 January 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss big bund market shifts on the horizon and inflation dynamics in the UK and US.
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NB: This was recorded on 19 January 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss our revised US monetary policy outlook, and the impact of a huge shift in UK and European inflation expectations on markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 12 January 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – share their views on how markets are responding to the latest Fed minutes, Q1 bond supply and pricing dynamics in Europe and the UK.
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NB: This was recorded on 6 January 2022. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the final central bank meetings of the year in each region and share their views on key implications for fixed income in 2022.
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NB: This was recorded on 16 December 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
In this episode of Bondcast, John Briggs and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – share their expectations for what the European Central Bank, the Fed, and the Bank of England will discuss at their final meetings of 2021 and how markets could react.
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NB: This was recorded on 8 December 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this special Year Ahead episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Paul Robson share their perspectives on the global rates & currencies outlook for 2022.
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NB: This was recorded on 24 November 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe and Theo Chapsalis for the UK – discuss investor sentiment around the Bank of England and the rate rise trajectory, and help make sense of big shifts in European rates markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 17 November 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the latest US inflation figures, market pricing in Europe, and the upcoming (and record-setting) UK inflation-linked gilt issuance.
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NB: This was recorded on 10 November 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – debrief after a busy week of central bank meetings that saw the US Treasury tweak its refunding programme (Tinker), the Fed announce it will start to pull back on asset purchases (Taper), volatile spreads and steepening yields curves (Steeper), and a UK rate hike that never came (Sigh).
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NB: This was recorded on 4 November 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giovanni Zanni for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – debrief on the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, discuss what markets should expect at the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve meetings in November, and assess the US refunding outlook.
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NB: This was recorded on 28 October 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss what bond investors should make of recent market volatility amidst (potentially) shifting central bank reaction functions.
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NB: This was recorded on 20 October 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the latest round of market volatility and potential risks facing bond markets in the months ahead.
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NB: This was recorded on 14 October 2021.
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the UK green gilt programme, corporate concerns over inflation & supply chains, and the path out of US political deadlock.
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NB: This was recorded on 6 October 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
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In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US take a closer look at how haulier shortages, spiking energy prices, and US politics are feeding into rates markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 29 September 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary
In this episode of Bondcast, John Briggs and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe, Theo Chapsalis for the UK, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – digest a busy week of central bank meetings and discuss what it means for bond markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 23 September 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
Sharpen your view with our insights & fixed income analysis. Our market strategists discuss the biggest themes & events shaping the landscape. In this episode of Bondcast, John Briggs and the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Giles Gale for Europe and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss potential developments that could arise from the fed meeting, inflation trends in Europe and other surprises markets may have in store.
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NB: This was recorded on 16 September 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists –Giles Gale for Europe and John Briggs for the US – discuss shifting ECB views in the run up to next week’s meeting and the likely impact of forthcoming US jobs data on rates markets.
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NB: This was recorded on 01 September 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
Sharpen your view with our insights & fixed income analysis. Our market strategists discuss the biggest themes & events shaping the landscape. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists –Theo Chapsalis for the UK, Giles Gale for Europe, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the US fiscal outlook and debt ceiling season, the right time to turn bearish in Europe, and building the UK’s green bond curve.
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NB: This was recorded on 25 August 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
Sharpen your view with our insights & fixed income analysis. Our market strategists discuss the biggest themes & events shaping the landscape. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists –Theo Chapsalis for the UK, Giles Gale for Europe, and John Briggs for the US – discusses the latest inflation & jobs data out of the US, and recent shifts in UK and Euro Area rates.
Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com.
NB: This was recorded on 11 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
Sharpen your view with our insights & fixed income analysis. Our market strategists discuss the biggest themes & events shaping the landscape. In this episode of Bondcast, John Briggs steps in for Imogen Bachra, and along with the NatWest Markets team of strategists – Theo Chapsalis for the UK, Giles Gale for Europe, and Jan Nevruzi for the US – dives into the Bank of England’s quantitative easing plans, US refunding, and the curious shift lower in global bond yields.
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NB: This was recorded on 5 August 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.
Sharpen your view with our insights & fixed income analysis. Our market strategists discuss the biggest themes & events shaping the landscape. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra and the NatWest Markets team of strategists –Theo Chapsalis for the UK and Jan Nevruzi for the US – discuss the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, the latest UK inflation & labour data, and German elections. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was recorded on 19 August 2021. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://ci.natwest.com/insights/articles/insight-glossary Please view our full disclaimer here: https://ci.natwest.com/disclaimer.