We may be entering the later innings of an expansion but we are still an economic expansion. Will the fed slamming on the brakes slow down our expansion? Will the debt cycles be shorter now?
Typical debt cycles go from 5 to 7 years. It's been just over 2 years since we crashed .1% GDP or even half percent GDP is still growth.
The credit markets are super important to the growth of our economy. We have not seen credit shrink quite yet. As the 10-year yield gets up over 2.8%, the spreads widen and banks tend to make more money. So credit has not started tightening yet.
There's more money in the system than ever. The number that Ray Dalio throws out is there's about $3 trillion in cash with just $50 trillion in credit.