How to Choose -  SHOW NOTES www.goodbetterright.com.au Season 1, Episode 2: Overestimating our abilities Tessa Mudge & Ken Smith INTRODUCTION In this episode, we look at when it pays to think things through more deeply and some of the pitfalls of relying on your (or others’) non-expert intuition. We explore the Dunning-Kruger Effect and other theories about overestimating and underestimating our ability. KEY TAKEAWAYS ➢ Beginners (or the incompetent) tend to overestimate their ability and experts tend to underestimate their abilty ➢ This effect can also be seen in culture and gender, being aware of this can help you better support friends and co-workers ➢ We all fail to accurately assess our own ability at some point ➢ Engage in metacognition, assess your own competence and experience critically and seek expert feedback ➢ A little knowledge is a dangerous thing! LINKS The https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780123855220000056 (Dunning-Kruger Effect) is based on multiple peer-reviewed studies, it is also https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/31/18200497/dunning-kruger-effect-explained-trump (explained by Vox )and it’s all over the internet, including some critiques. The difference between mae and female self evaluation is https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-15/men-more-likely-to-overestimate-their-iq-than-women/100909236 (summarised by the ABC) and ‘Male Hubris and Female Humility?...’ is https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223906403_Male_hubris_and_female_humility_A_crosscultural_study_of_ratings_of_self_parental_and_sibling_multiple_intelligence_in_America_Britain_and_Japan (a study )by psychologist Adrian Furnham. We didn’t have time to unpack the closely related ideas of https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0960982211011912?token=6A0EE90B321BDCF1DE98A5C6C5CE43E4D3A2A5BB52117EAC5FC19C24066E55E66289278BEEACB0B5C2E3F1DA71213A6A&originRegion=us-east-1&originCreation=20220526013227 (optimism bias) and https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/scicurious-brain/the-superiority-illusion-where-everyone-is-above-average/ (superiority illusion), for a good breakdown, explore the links. WHAT TO DO? ● Talk about these concepts with other people - this is a proven way to reinforce learning ● Subscribe to How to Choose ● Drop us a line at contact@goodbetterright.com.au IN OUR NEXT EPISODE... Next episode we’ll talk about ‘tree felling’ or the reasons why we might want to stick to our big decisions!