FPL Optimized: Recent Episodes
Bas Belfi, Sertalp B. Cay
Everyone in Fantasy Premier League heard about the data and analytics revolution and realized that the landscape is changing rapidly, but not everyone has time to keep up with the news. We are here to bring you the latest and best about data, analytics, Moneyball approaches to FPL, how it works, advantages, pitfalls, and more. Bas, the eye-test manager, and Sertalp, the analytics manager, compare their notes and talk about FPL from two different angles.
https://twitter.com/sertalpbilal https://twitter.com/belfibb
As usual, Bas and Sertalp talk about GW3 review, share latest model error rates, talk about fixture ticker, and Bas shares his eye test report for GW4 and beyond.
Thanks to NeilRankinZA (https://twitter.com/NeilRankinZA) for the analysis and visualizations.
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Join our FPL Analytics Community Discord
https://discord.gg/HRjcXrTM54
In this episode, Bas and Sertalp talk about Chelsea's next two fixtures and switch to Newcastle defense by GW5. They also cover prediction model accuracies, team strengths, player prediction changes, current wildcard optimal team, and Bas' eye test report.
Thanks to FPL_Chase (https://twitter.com/FPL_Chase) and NeilRankinZA (https://twitter.com/NeilRankinZA) for their analysis and visualizations.
Join our mini league at
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto-join/0jsdla
Join our FPL Analytics Community Discord
https://discord.gg/HRjcXrTM54
Bas and Sertalp evaluates their GW1 and talk about prediction models. With only 1 GW left behind, model correlations, accuracies, team strengths, and player projection changes are the main topic of this episode.
Big thanks to FPL_Chase (https://twitter.com/FPL_Chase) and NeilRankinZA (https://twitter.com/NeilRankinZA) for their analysis and visualizations.
Join our mini league at
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto-join/0jsdla
Join our FPL Analytics Community Discord
https://discord.gg/HRjcXrTM54
Just before we begin the season, Bas and Sertalp talk about GW1 decisions, data, optimal teams, and their drafts.
Bas is back and Optimized podcast kicks off the season officially this time. Bas and Sertalp talk about the new pod format, team predictions, and latest drafts.
Consider joining our mini league at
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto-join/0jsdla
And consider joining our FPL Analytics Community Discord
https://discord.gg/HRjcXrTM54
In the last Q/A episode before GW1 planning begins, Sertalp hosts Formadillo (on Twitter) who had an extremely unlucky season despite using analytics and data. Sertalp asks Formadillo questions about his last season, and plans for the new season.
Optimized pod is back for 2023/2024 season! Sertalp hosts Massive Data champion Jonny Currie while Bas is having a well-deserved vacation.
Bas and Sertalp talk about GW16 choices and single-GW punts ahead of the World Cup break.
While Bas is away, Sertalp hosts Brett Taylor (@FPLEchidna) to talk about getting tilted in and frustrated with FPL. They talk about sources of frustration, how it can be approached analytically, and ways to deal with it.
In this shorter than usual episode, Bas and Sertalp talk about main GW13 questions using different data sources.
Bas and Sertalp talk about GW11 and the Blank GW12. They answer questions from Twitter about captaincy, Free Hit optimal, budget defenders, and how to decide whether to take a hit or not.
After a depressing GW, Bas and Sertalp talk about GW10 plans and answer questions from Twitter. WC10 optimal plans signal the rise of mid-price midfielders, while the importance of defenders keeps going down.
Bas and Sertalp talk about main topics of GW9 and Wildcard picks: goalkeeper selection, optimal wildcard teams, Salah vs KDB, Maddison captaincy, cheap defenders, and risk preference.
Bas and Sertalp have a special guest during the International Break: Brett Taylor (FPLEchidna on Twitter), who finished #3 in the world last season. Brett answers Bas and Sertalp's questions about his play style, what he thinks about data, and how his football history helps decision making.
Bas is already on wildcard, Sertalp is considering to delay until GW9. This week's main topic is wildcard: how to compare plans and their expected values, how to pick players, what we think about some of the confusing questions. Have a green arrow and nice International Break everyone!
Bas and Sertalp discuss GW7 questions amid BHA-CRY game postponement and Tuchel news. Bas is already on wildcard, while Sertalp considers factors that might affect the optimal WC time.
After a weird GW, Bas and Sertalp get together to discuss their teams, give update on model predictions, review WC4 optimal team, and talk about EV sacrifices for nonquantifiable data in analytical play.
Bas and Sertalp talk about what models have learned in two GWs, and answer some questions about potential transfer options.
Bas and Sertalp talks about what "optimal" means in FPL, and evaluate Kane to Haaland premium switch from an analytical perspective.
Last episode before the start! Bas and Sertalp talk about what prediction data gives as optimal squad, which formations appear more, what are some of the choices waiting optimization solver users before the deadline.
Bas is back! ✈ Apparently he didn't stop thinking about FPL even on the beach, read a book, and came back with more questions than answers. As we get closer to the GW1 deadline, Bas and Sertalp talk about premium goalkeepers, 'No Salah' madness, players to consider, and have a brief look at the raw-data-optimal team. Another 1 hour episode, so you might want to take that longer route for your commute, perhaps...
As we get closer to GW1, Sertalp hosts Simon and Jamie of the Corridor of Uncertainty podcast. While Bas is away, they talk about their podcast plans, Grass vs Analytics, heated Twitter discussions, what is in FPL's future, models, and answer questions. It's a much longer than usual, but a pretty spicy episode. 🌶
In this special 1-hour episode Sertalp hosts Jan Kępski, an analytics-focused manager with lots of fame with his amazing minute predictions. Jan covers latest transfers while Bas is away, and answers questions from Sertalp and pod listeners.
FPL. IS. BACK. 🔥 Bas and Sertalp cover latest confirmed transfers, and go back to analytics basics: what data is needed for FPL analytics, how is it used, what is a solver. Enjoy the first episode of the new season.
Bas and Sertalp cover the latest transfers in Premier League, and (as promised) talk about team strength models and fixture difficulty ratings.
While we are eagerly waiting for FPL to reveal player prices, Bas and Sertalp talk about fixture difficulty ratings, and cover confirmed transfers so far.
Chip decisions play a critical role in our season performance, but to what extent? Bas and Sertalp talks about how important chips decisions are, and what we can learn by analyzing some of the best managers' chip usage.
In this episode, Bas and Sertalp talk about how to use Season Highlights tool on FPL Optimized to analyze the season and ideal pricing methods for FPL.
Bas and Sertalp review the last GW of the season, talk about "lessons" learned, and discuss what Expected Goals (xG) is and how it is relevant in FPL analytics.
KDB reminded everyone how fast things could change in FPL. After his 4-goal haul, Bas and Sertalp talk about captaincy, TC chip, how probability of hauls are calculated, and their plans for the final GW.
BBC published an article "Is it fair for fantasy football managers to rely on AI?" which is the main topic of this episode. Bas and Sertalp talk about how they approach the game, and how Artificial Intelligence and analytics are being used in FPL.