Cannabis Investing Network: Recent Episodes

CIN Podcast

2 Private Cannabis Investors share thoughts, analysis and opinions on the ups and downs of the rapidly changing Cannabis Investing landscape. For Investors By Investors

In this episode we are joined by Scott Grossman of Turning Point Brands (TPB on the NYSE). Scott has extensive experience in private and public markets and is Head of Corporate Development for TPB. Turning Point has a unique position in our industry as they control the ZigZag brand and have made numerous investments across the cannabis supply chain.

Scott joins us to discuss:

What's going on with cannabis stocks?
How should rescheduling be priced?
Where are the best opportunities in cannabis?
M&A: Cansortium <> RIV + GTI <> Sam Adams
Who will be the marginal buyer?
Brands, Product Innovation and Consumer Preference
Hemp vs Cannabis Civil War
The Long Game: thinking about how "the end state" of cannabis will look

Thanks as always to Scott for a great conversation

Follow Scott on Twitter @ ⁠https://twitter.com/srg444

In this episode we are joined by the Guru of the Gold Coast Hirsh Jain.

Hirsh last joined us in February where he correctly predicted the timing of the Rescheduling Announcement.

In this episode:

How did Hirsh correctly guess timing of the announcement?
How will rescheduling play out to maximize political benefit?
Will we get a Cole Memo 2.0? How will that impact uplisting?
Will Florida pass adult use?
How will Ohio impact the industry financially and politically?
Will Pennsylvania flip to Adult Use this year?
The Farm Bill: Delta 8, THCA and more

Don't miss out on Hirsh's unique insight into the intersection of cannabis and politics.

Connect with Hirsh:

LinkedIn - ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain/⁠

Twitter - ⁠https://twitter.com/anandastrategy⁠

Hirsh's Website - ⁠https://anandastrategy.com/

In this episode we are joined by Dan from The Chart Guys to compare cannabis investing strategies. With several potential key upcoming catalysts we compare short term trading vs longer term investing and our game plans for the coming months.

Big thanks to Dan for joining us for another great discussion.

Follow Dan / The Chart Guys

On Twitter: ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/ChartGuys⁠⁠

The Chart Guys on Youtube: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g⁠⁠

Free Intro to TA course: ⁠⁠https://www.chartguys.com/trading-courses/7/technical-analysis⁠⁠

In this episode (recorded pre-DEA announcement) we discuss the risk/reward of the industry along with our game plans for going forward.

Let us know what topics you want to hear the most about in the coming weeks!

Focus on the fundamentals!

In this episode we are joined by our friend Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments) who is a long time private and public cannabis investor.

In this Financial Review we cover:

How each operator stands to benefit from Florida Rec
Cash flow, future growth & 280E benefits
Thoughts on MSOs valuations; financial metrics; balancing positives and negatives

Thanks to Nick for joining us and sharing his detailed analysis as always!

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - ⁠https://twitter.com/CannaVestments⁠

LinkedIn - ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/⁠

Family Office Website - ⁠https://www.vginvests.com/

In this episode we go "boots on the ground" into Florida's Cannabis Market.

Our guest Real Estate Randy is an expert in helping Florida operators expand their footprint. He has years of experience dealing with some of the largest MSOs and brings unique insight on their innerworkings as well as the local market nuances.

In this episode:

Why Randy is "all-in" on Florida Rec
How he expects the market to change leading up to the Ballot
Where are the untapped opportunities in the state
Why opening stores will get harder
Which operators Randy likes
M&A: Who's ripe for acquisition?
Why cannabis investors should be VERY excited for the Florida opportunity\

& much more

Huge thanks to Randy for joining us for this episode!

In this episode we are joined by Jesse Redmond of Water Tower Research to discuss Rescheduling Rumours, Cannabis Catalysts & Earnings Take-Aways.

Jesse has a unique background as a former hedge fund manager AND a cannabis dispensary operator. He shares insights on specific names and outlines a game plan depending on your risk tolerance.

In this episode we discuss:

-What to make of the recent Doug Kass rumour?

-Kamala, Fat Joe & Election predictions

-Earnings: How did Tier 1 MSOs perform?

oHow did smaller operators perform?

-Game Plan: what names you should consider depending on your risk level

-Catalysts: How will possible seismic changes affect the investing landscape?

oWhere will big money gravitate towards

-California Cannabis – what’s interesting to look at?

Thanks again to Jesse for joining us

Connect with Jesse:

On X: https://twitter.com/jesseredmond

On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesseredmond/

Water Tower cannabis research: ⁠https://www.watertowerresearch.com/sector/12

To be added to Water Tower’s cannabis email distribution list, email jesse@watertowerresearch.com

In this episode we are joined by Will Muecke who is Co-Founder and Managing Member at Artemis Growth Partners.

Artemis Growth Partners is one of the largest and most active private investors in cannabis with ~$400M+ under management exclusively in cannabis.

Will and his team have invested throughout the cannabis value chain including MSOs, Brands and producers in Europe.

In this episode:

What just happened in Germany?
How will the current market change?
Which companies will benefit the most?
How will Germany change the EU's view on Cannabis
Potential future uplisting for Legal Cannabis in the UK
Rescheduling: How much upside could there be?

Thanks to Will for joining us!

Connect w/ Will:

Website: ⁠www.artemisgrowth.com⁠

LinkedIn (corporate): ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/artemisgrowth/⁠

LinkedIn (personal): ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in

In this episode we are joined by a special guest who brings a unique perspective on trading cannabis stocks through technical analysis.

Charting Man Dan of The Chart Guys is a well known cannabis personality who specializes in chart reading. Dan is a veteran cannabis trader but also regularly trades broader indices and crypto.

Dan is a wealth of honest information and brings an unbiased perspective on the charts.

In this episode we discuss:

The Rescheduling Game Plan for 2024
Buying MSOS vs Underlying OTC names
Deciding when to buy and sell
Florida Rec: how a trader evaluates names and entries

Thanks to Dan for joining us and sharing his perspective. Please check out his links below for great free content

Follow Dan / The Chart Guys

On Twitter: ⁠https://twitter.com/ChartGuys⁠

The Chart Guys on Youtube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g⁠

Free Intro to TA course: ⁠https://www.chartguys.com/trading-courses/7/technical-analysis⁠

Understanding Dilution Video: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay7VFXFxHRM⁠

Priced-In Analysis Video: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGL94mPHFJg⁠

In this episode we are joined by special guest Hirsh Jain. Hirsh is a cannabis policy expert and shares in depth analysis about:

DEA Rescheduling: Is Sooner or Later better for Biden?
How do state level cannabis programs affect elections?
Florida: Why Hirsh is bullish
VA / OH / PA & Texas
How important is cannabis really for voters?

Don't miss out on Hirsh's unique insight into the intersection of cannabis and politics.

Connect with Hirsh:

LinkedIn - ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain/⁠

Twitter - ⁠https://twitter.com/anandastrategy⁠

Hirsh's Website - ⁠https://anandastrategy.com/

In this episode we are joined by Mike aka MJ Stock Trader on Twitter. Mike has become a leading voice on CannaTwitter over the past 3 years and shares a unique perspective on social media's importance in cannabis investing.

In this episode we discuss:

The importance of psychology and sentiment
How 2024 has started for investors
What's Next? Key dates to watch for
Rescheduling, Florida & SAFER
Big risks no one is talking about
Personal investment strategies for 2024

& much more

Follow Mike @ ⁠https://twitter.com/stock_mj⁠

MJ Stock Trader Website - ⁠https://mjstocktrader.com/

Happy 2024! To kick off the new year we are joined by a very special guest - Robert Beasley, CEO of Cansortium (TIUM on CSE or CNTMF on OTC).

Cansortium is a Multi-State Operator with operations in Florida, Pennsylvania & Texas.

In this episode we discuss:

Robert becoming CEO in 2020 and right sizing the company
Living through the COVID Cannabis boom in Florida
The importance of balance in the company
Florida Adult Use on the 2024 Ballot
Price Wars: how price compression has impacted Florida
M&A: how does management think about the company's future
Financial Performance including cash flow, taxes and debt

Thank you to Robert for joining us for this discussion.

Get in touch with Cansortium/Fluent @ https://investors.getfluent.com/

The final episode of 2023!

In this episode we recap what happened this year and paint the picture of our investing game plan for 2024

In this episode:

Recapping 2023 for Cannabis & General investing
The potential macro backdrop for 2024
The biggest 2024 Catalysts for Cannabis
The game plan for making the most of 2024

Thank you all and see you in 2024!

The boys are back! In this episode we discuss 3 recent examples of cannabis companies and how they represent the Good, the Bad & the Ugly of what is going on in the cannabis industry today

In this episode we are joined by Scott Grossman of Turning Point Brands (TPB on the NYSE). Scott has extensive experience in private and public markets and is Head of Corporate Development for TPB. Turning Point has a unique position in our industry as they control the ZigZag brand and have made numerous investments across the cannabis supply chain.

Scott joins us to discuss the most important developments in 2023, his thesis around "Kinetic Energy" building in the industry, how investors should be looking at companies and much more.

Follow Scott on Twitter @ ⁠https://twitter.com/srg444

In this episode we are joined by Ryan Mao to discuss his new piece which gives a clear overview of the steps with regards to rescheduling cannabis.

Read Ryan's work @ www.MSOmao.com

We discuss:

Why Rescheduling is more important than SAFEr Banking
Ryan's predictions and timing for rescheduling
Mechanics: the steps involved and key considerations
Previous examples and how they might differ
What to expect in 2024
How operators and investors can position themselves ahead of these potential changes

Thanks to Ryan for joining us for this in depth chat

Connect with Ryan:

On LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-mao02211996/

Ryan's website - https://www.msomao.com/

Focus on the fundamentals!

In this episode we are joined by our friend Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments) who is a long time private and public cannabis investor.

In this Financial Review we cover:

The 2 biggest fundamental catalysts for the industry (not SAFER banking related)
Cash flow, future growth & 280E benefits
Thoughts on MSOs valuations; financial metrics; balancing positives and negatives

Thanks to Nick for joining us and sharing his detailed analysis as always!

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this episode we discuss higher yields, repricing risk, SAFER Banking and coming to your own conclusions

In this episode we are joined by Mike aka MJ Stock Trader on Twitter. Mike has become a leading voice on CannaTwitter over the past 3 years and shares a unique perspective on social media's importance in cannabis investing.

In this episode we discuss:

Getting started in the industry
Trading vs Investing in Cannabis
Evolution of investor psychology
Evaluating when and what to purchase
The most important valuation metrics
Federal movement: Rescheduling & SAFE
Upcoming SAFE Banking vote: are we too optimistic?
Equity Raises & Short Sellers
Social media's role in retail driven stocks

& much more

Follow Mike @ https://twitter.com/stock_mj

MJ Stock Trader Website - https://mjstocktrader.com/

In this episode we balance the bear and bull case for cannabis stocks coming off the bomb shell rescheduling news.

We discuss process, timeline, what this means for the industry and which companies should benefit the most going forward.

The boys of summer are back to talk about earnings season

This week the boys are on vacation so we thought it would be fun to revisit our predictions episode from Feb 2023 to keep ourselves honest.

What did we get right? What did we get wrong? Were there major surprises or upsets?

"5 Key Things to Watch in 2023" originally aired Feb/8/2023

In this episode we go through the investment case for why owning cannabis stocks may be better risk/reward than the market is signalling

In this episode we are joined by special guest Hirsh Jain. Hirsh is a cannabis policy expert and shares in depth analysis about which markets are most likely to go adult use, which markets are disappointing, how Germany is doing and where the federal political winds are blowing.

Don't miss out on Hirsh's unique state level insight.

Connect with Hirsh:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain/

Twitter - https://twitter.com/anandastrategy

Hirsh's Website - https://anandastrategy.com/

In this episode we review some positive developments for the industry:

TSX Uplisting for Terrascend
Capital raises for interesting opportunities
Maryland starting sales July 1st
Rescheduling update & more

Despite these positive steps forward the cannabis markets seem completely quiet. Is this a problem or an opportunity?

The boys are back together!

In this episode we discuss:

The current state of capital markets
Pause or Hike? Or both?
Why isn't cannabis getting more love?
Regulatory pains of cannabis M&A
Cresco vs Columbia Care
Cannabis vs Office Buildings
Does cannabis make good sense right now?

In this long awaited episode we are joined by our friend Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments) who is a long time private and public cannabis investor.

In this Financial Review we cover:

General thoughts on Cannabis Earnings
Concerns on cashflow and capital requirements
Thoughts on MSOs valuations; financial metrics; balancing positives and negatives

Thanks to Nick for joining us and sharing his detailed analysis as always!

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

Despite SAFE Banking Disappointment we discuss why there are some green shoots in cannabis investing worth paying attention to

Are you ready to get hurt again?

In this episode we discuss SAFE Banking, a confusing macro environment, recession fears and industry trends

In this special 420 episode we are joined by the industry's leading cannabis analyst Alan Brochstein. Alan is the founder of 420investor and co-founder of New Cannabis Venture. AB has deep company level knowledge and is one of our favourites sources of analysis and information for the cannabis industry.

In this episode we go ticker by ticker to get Alan's thoughts on: Trulieve, GTI, MSOS, Columbia Care, Cresco, AYR, Ascend, Weedmaps, OGI and many more! Throughout this discussion we also touch on many of the industry's most pressing issues including profitability, uplisting, 280E and many other items.

Thanks to Alan for joining us for a great discussion as always.

Connect with Alan:

420investor on Seeking Alpha - https://seekingalpha.com/mp/1417-420-investor/articles

Alan on Twitter - https://twitter.com/Invest420

In this episode we are joined by Colin Campbell, Managing Director of Sharp Capital Advisors. Sharp provides advisory services exclusively to the cannabis industry including M&A, Capital Raising and more. Colin joins us to discuss Cannabis Technology (CannaTech) companies as well as the state of the market, plant touching operators and what the M&A landscape looks like.

He also shares a much needed optimistic message that the best companies will survive and thrive through this extended rough patch.

Many thanks to Colin for joining us and sharing his unique insight!

Connect with Colin:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/usccolin/

Sharp Capital Website - https://www.sharpca.com/

In this episode we are joined by Everett Knight, EVP of the Valens Company. Valens was recently acquired by SNDL. Everett has a unique position in the industry - he has been involved with cannabis operations for years but previous to that he was a small cap portfolio manager. In this episdoe we discuss the good, bad and ugly of markets, cannabis and investing opportunities.

What does Bank Fallout mean for Cannabis?
Is there more pain ahead?
What are Investors asking about?
Is there any hope for Canada or California?
Eyes on Germany Legalization
Delta8 potentially being banned

Thanks to Ev for joining us for a great chat!

Connect with Everett On Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/everett-knight-cfa-54574759/https://www.linkedin.com/in/everett-knight-cfa-54574759/

In this episode we are joined by Bethany Gomez, Managing Director at Brightfield Group. As a leading consumer insights company in the cannabis space, Brightfield Group is uniquely positioned to discuss cannabis consumption trends and how they are evolving over time. They've written many white papers which are available for free at their website below.

In this episode we discuss:

How big is Delta 8 and associated products?
Should investors and operators be worried about D8?
Are consumers in legal markets still buying hemp derived THC?
How are brands in cannabis succeeding?
What can MSOs do to stand out across markets?

Thanks to Bethany for joining and sharing her insights with us!

Contact Bethany:

On LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bethanymurphygomez/

Brightfield Group Whitepapers - https://www.brightfieldgroup.com/resources

In this wide reaching market update we discuss macro, being cautious on the market, AYR selling assets, Canopy layoffs, Shopify and what it will take to change consumer and investor mentality.

Some stories discussed:

California Interstate - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-13/california-pot-laws-in-2023-may-allow-interstate-commerce?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter
THCO is Illegal - https://cannabusiness.law/thco-is-a-schedule-1-controlled-substance-says-dea/

In this episode we identify 5 key things all cannabis investors should be keeping an eye on in 2023

Links Mentioned:

Eric Johnston @ Cantor Interview on SPY Downside - https://www.realvision.com/shows/daily-briefing/videos/when-will-the-green-shoots-narrative-end-Alne?tab=details

In this episode we are joined by Scott Grossman of Turning Point Brands (TPB on the NYSE). Scott has extensive experience in private and public markets and is Head of Corporate Development for TPB. Turning Point has a unique position in our industry as they control the ZigZag brand and have made numerous investments across the cannabis supply chain.

Scott joins us to discuss:

Sifting thru the rubble & Investing in a "bombed out" sector
Should cannabis investors give up?
Where are the best opportunities in cannabis?
What are the best valuation metrics to pay attention to?
Publics vs Privates
How Macro could weigh on capital markets
The Long Game: thinking about how "the end state" of cannabis will look

Follow Scott on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/srg444

In our first episode of the new year we explore the brutal price breakdown in December and ask ourselves - how did we get here? What went wrong? What can we learn and do differently? We also share thoughts about investing and opportunities for 2023

Happy 2023!

In a continuation of last week's episode we are back with Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments) to finish off our analysis of the big 5 MSOs.

In this episode we discuss:

Listener Question: Where are the new buyers going to come from?
General thoughts on industry trends
Financial Analysis of our Final 2 MSOs
Final thoughts on the industry and 2023

Thanks to Nick for another great review to close out 2022. See you all in the new year!

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this long awaited episode we are joined by our friend Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments) who is a long time private and public cannabis investor.

In Part 1 of this review we cover:

General thoughts on Cannabis Earnings
Concerns on cashflow and capital requirements
Thoughts on 3 MSOs; valuations; financial metrics; balancing positives and negatives

Thanks to Nick for joining us and see Part 2 of this conversation next week!

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this episode we are joined by Sayshu who has extensive experience in private and public markets.

We discuss how capital flows impact valuations, funding and investor mentality across all sectors with a particular focus on how SAFE Banking may benefit cannabis in the short and long run.

Thanks to Sayshu for joining us and sharing his insight

Follow Sayshu on Twitter - https://twitter.com/sayshu_mm

In this episode we are discussing all things political & SAFE Banking

Election Results and what this means for Cannabis
SAFE Banking in Lame Duck
Broader Market predictions for 2023
Strategies around SAFE and risk management

In this episode we are joined by Will Muecke who is Co-Founder and Managing Member at Artemis Growth Partners.

Artemis Growth Partners is one of the largest and most active private investors in cannabis with $350M+ under management exclusively in cannabis.

Will and his team have invested throughout the cannabis value chain including MSOs, Brands and producers in Europe.

In this episode:

Getting started in Cannabis: Will's personal connection to the medical market
Early Deals: Green Thumb (GTI), Lord Jones, Clever Leaves and more
What does Artemis look for in Cannabis Investments?
Germany: Deep Dive into proposed regulations and opportunities
Capital Markets and the first German Cannabis Pubco
US Cannabis Investing: What are the most interesting opportunities?
Some of Artemis' Favourite Cannabis Companies

Thanks to Will for joining us!

Connect w/ Will:

Website: www.artemisgrowth.com

LinkedIn (corporate): https://www.linkedin.com/company/artemisgrowth/

LinkedIn (personal): https://www.linkedin.com/in/wmuecke

Happy Election Day! In this episode we discuss recent deals, what we're watching for in the Midterms and how Cannabis & Tech are affected by changing attitudes of Regulators.

Topics Covered:

P Diddy & Cresco Labs Deal
Key Election Ballots & Races to Watch
Elon Musk, Twitter & Verano + Vireo
Secular Rotation out of Technology

Video - Cramer Melting down re: META - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Er_9ZjiJD5Y&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

Canopy Growth USA

Thread re: is this a new mechanism? - https://twitter.com/LogicPrevails_/status/1585288412671737857

Germany's Legalization Plans
Macro Theory - Labour <> Housing <> Consumer Spending

In this jam packed episode we catch up on several key developments in the sector and share why we think US Cannabis has re-rated upwards into 2024 (but also discuss the challenges we face in getting there). We also make several predictions about the future of the industry.

We Discuss:

Biden's Executive Actions
Why did he do this and what it means for the future
2024 Predictions for further actions
How this changes the calculus for other politicians
Booker, Schumer & SAFE Banking

Link: Politico Spaces on Rescheduling - https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vOxwMLjgOgGB?s=20

Green Thumb & Circle K
What this deal means for the industry
How Biden's actions paved the way for this deal
What's next?
Is the deal happening?
The Road to 2024
Challenging fundamentals, sentiment & macro
Comparisons to the down cycle of late 2019
Predictions for how big brands and US companies will get involved

In this episode we are joined by a special guest who brings a technical perspective. Charting Man Dan of The Chart Guys is a well known cannabis personality who specializes in technical analysis and chart reading. Dan is a veteran cannabis trader but also regularly trades broader indices and crypto.

Dan is a wealth of honest information and brings an unbiased perspective on the charts.

In this episode we discuss:

What does Biden's executive action mean for the market?
How can Cannabis Stocks break their current slump?
Supply & Demand
Where are we and how can we change that?

Thanks to Dan for joining us and sharing his perspective. Please check out his links below for great free content

Follow Dan / The Chart Guys

On Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChartGuys

The Chart Guys on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g

Free Intro to TA course: https://www.chartguys.com/trading-courses/7/technical-analysis

In a follow up to last week's bleak outlook on the industry we discuss thoughts on valuing the cannabis industry.

Some key topics discussed:

Fundamentals - how the headwinds of price compression make it difficult to value companies
Macro Factors - we are still negative but hearing some interesting mixed signals
Video Mentioned: Eric Johnston of Cantor on CNBC
Federal Legislative - the difficult of predicting SAFE+
Video Mentioned: Cory Booker on SAFE Banking

In this episode we dig deep into the fundamentals and narrative surrounding the industry, analyzing the past and making some somber predictions for the future.

We break our discussion into several parts:

History - how we got here and what we learned
The Transitional Phase we are currently in
Looking Forward - how we see the industry progressing from here

We look at cannabis fundamentals in relation to capital availability, macro conditions and supply side considerations.

We are back! In this post-summer episode we discuss a topic that's often missing in investing discussions - when to sell your stocks. We discuss a recent loss and how it influenced thinking about cutting your losses. We view this topic through the lens of Macro, Sector and Company analysis. Thanks to Sayshu for joining us for a great conversation.

Follow Sayshu on Twitter - https://twitter.com/sayshu_mm

We're back! In this market update we cover a wide variety of topics including:

Broader Market Rally (or headfake?) (Recession meme link)
Consumer Spending & Inflation
Short term market strategy
Cannabis Q2 earnings
SAFE Banking and Political Winds shifting
Brittney Griner and Biden's Hypocrisy
Florida Rec 2024 Campaign

We're back with a double stacked episode! Our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q4 2021 + Q1 2022 quarterly review of all the big 5 MSOs.

We discuss the overall cannabis market then dive into quarterly results plus strengths of weaknesses of each company and analysis of which is the most attractive at today's prices.

We also discuss how well positioned each of these companies is for the current phase of our industry and where we see them going in the future.

Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this episode the boys are back to discuss the macro picture, interest rates, inflation and the importance of recalibrating expectations. We discuss strategy, outlook and why we think cannabis is actually looking pretty good in comparison to other parts of the market.

In this episode we are joined by Kim Rivers who is CEO, Founder and Chair of Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Kim is one of the industry's most well known and respected executives. She has deep operational knowledge and a keen eye for detail.

In this episode we discuss:

Doubling Down in Florida since 2019: what others missed
Customer Obsessed: How data drives high per store sales
The importance of Scale
Operations: What is Trulieve doing differently?
2 big limiting factors in Cultivation Construction
Using automation to drive efficiency and stay flexible
Investments in robotics to “bring the plant to the worker”
Florida Adult Use: how big could the market be?
Milestones to getting rec on the 2024 ballot
Divestitures, Convertibles & Warrants…how to spot a shakeout
M&A: How Trulieve is positioned for the future

A big thank you to Kim for joining us for a highly informative chat.

Follow Kim on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rivers_kim

Whitney Tilson is a well known value investor with a long and varied past in financial markets. He joins us to discuss markets, value investing and how he got interested in cannabis stocks.

We discuss:

How Whitney got started in investing
Being a Late 1990's "Bull Market Genius"
How that Bull Run compares to Today's
Getting religion by learning about Buffett and Value Investing
The Ups and Downs of starting his own hedge fund
Market Timing: Indicators that Whitney looks for
What attracted Whitney to the Cannabis Sector
How the current rout in Cannabis compares to Tech in 2000
The 3 things Whitney looks for in a winning company

Thanks to Whitney for joining us for this fun and wide ranging discussion

Sign Up for Whitney's Free Newsletter:

https://empirefinancialresearch.com/newsletters/whitney-tilson-daily

Follow Whitney on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/whitneytilson

In this episode we are joined by Frank Perullo of Ascend Wellness. Frank is a Co-Founder of AWH and currently serves as President and Chief Strategy Officer.

We Discuss:

Frank’s Background in Regulatory Affairs
Early Days of being a Cannabis Consultant in MA
Working with GTI, Tilt, Ianthus, Acreage along with mom & pop operators
Why is it so Difficult to Open a Dispensary in MA?
Genesis: Meeting Abner and Creating Ascend
Moving Fast: Why Ascend was able to win the Friend St Store in Boston
IL: Buying a Distressed Cultivation Asset
Deciding to Double Stack to be ready for Adult Use
NJ: Doing a Deal after Everyone Had Looked at it
Ground Game: Finding Great Retail Locations by Knocking on Doors
How’s the New Jersey Market?
Changing Canopy Sizing based on Projected Supply
Entering PA via acquiring a CR license
Second Mover Advantage
Customers: Value vs Premium and Inflation Pressures
Why Should Investors choose Ascend?

Thanks to Frank for joining us for this very fun and informative interview

In this episode we discuss the complexities of investing across any asset class right now.

From commercial real estate to cannabis, investors are facing tough questions about the future, especially in the context of inflation and rising interest rates.

As delve into some of the uncertainties and examine reasons why Q4 and Q1 were so tough for operators.

In this episode we update our Fed Party analogy to ask: where are we now? What's next? Where is the opportunity?

As the broader market gets crushed we discuss what is happening, how stocks are being repriced and how cannabis will look in comparison.

Link:

The Fed on Inflation & Rates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugBKSiTL0IU&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance

We're back! After a long road trip we share our thoughts, takeaways and changes in strategy after a very productive Benzinga.

What did we see? What did we learn? What are the best investment opportunities right now?

In this week's episode we discuss Burn Out. As sentiment continues to be depressed and the macro environment looks ugly it is easy to feel down and out on cannabis. In this episode we discuss ideas and strategies for handling and avoiding burn out.

In this episode we discuss balancing short term catalysts for cannabis with an ugly macro picture.

We also look out to 2024 and discuss how the industry will look, with multiple attractive markets open and a presidential election approaching.

Videos mentioned:

Fed will Crush Stocks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fiiib9oqTB0&t=1s&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance

In this weeks episode we do a market update on:

the MORE act passing the house (again)
Mainstream recognition and momentum building
CAOA and SAFE possibilities
New Mexico starting legal sales with a bang
Listener Question re: Schwazze
Cresco x Columbia Care Merger thoughts

We also discuss how the macro effects of inflation, supply chain issues and accelerating rate hikes might break the economy. We talk through how cannabis might behave in a recession and why it may not be all bad for the industry.

In this episode we go back to where it all started – the Canadian cannabis market!

We are joined by Everett Knight who is Executive Vice President at the Valens Company. Everett has a very interesting background as he was an institutional investor in Cannabis as early as 2013. He has toured over 200 cannabis facilities between the US and Canada, investing on both sides of the border. He experienced significant investment success in the early days before deciding to “get in the game” by join Valens.

Because Everett has experience on both sides of the fence he has a unique perspective - the ability to think through the investment implications of the industry but have a view to the inner operational side of the business. Similarly, Valens has operations in both Canada and the US (including a new NASDAQ listing).

We have a very honest conversation about:

what Canada looked like early on
why Canada is so challenging as a market
how Canada compares to California (and other unlimited license states)
Valens financial performance and outlook for 2023
what will happen to Canada over the next 2 years?

Thanks to Everett for joining us.

You can follow him @ https://twitter.com/smallcapfund

or contact Valens IR @ https://thevalenscompany.com/contact/

In this episode we discuss 3 categories of upcoming catalysts which could help propel the cannabis sector out of its current slump

We break out these potential catalysts into state level changes, federal changes and potential M&A.

We also discuss which changes will have a long term impact and which could be have short lived benefit.

In this episode we dig through our listener mailbox to answer some wide ranging questions including:

New York giving first 200 retail licenses to Social Equity
Canadian LPs rapidly losing share to smaller producers; what does this mean for the US?
How do we like Curaleaf at these prices?
How will low share prices affect M&A?
When to sell your holdings?
What do we think about the Ancillary plays?
Why is this still an attractive industry?
How much upside is there in any one cannabis name?

Thanks for the great questions and please keep sending them in!

References:

Trump vs Nancy Mace: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/nikki-haley-trump.html

Nancy Mace Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAKwodshrxU&t=183s&ab_channel=mindsetcapital

As markets continue to give everyone heart burn we try to take a sober look at:

1) Emotions - how it feels to live through volatility

2) Risks to Limited License Operators - some negatives we are seeing

3) Fundamentals - why the thesis still makes sense, but how we are underwriting more conservatively

In this episode we dig into potential downside risks to the long term thesis of our cannabis holdings including interstate commerce, federal regulations, state regulations and price volatility. We also spend some time discussing why its so important to think about downside risk in this industry and sizing your portfolio appropriately.

Links / Articles Discussed:

1)The Cannalysts Hot Dog Stand Analogy: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheCannalysts/comments/st9a7l/the_hot_dog_stand_an_analogy/

2) Oklahoma is a Cannabis Boom State: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/us/oklahoma-marijuana-boom.html

In this episode we are joined by a special guest who brings a different perspective. Charting Man Dan of The Chart Guys is a well known cannabis personality who specializes in technical analysis and chart reading. Dan is a veteran cannabis trader but also regularly trades broader indices and crypto.

In this episode we discuss:

What is technical analysis?
Why is technical analysis useful?
How does trading on the OTC differ from Higher Exchanges
What are Dan's personal strategies with regards to cannabis trading
How does Dan decide to buy or sell a stock
Why does Dan think we are at the bottom of a cycle and what would change his mind

Thanks to Dan for joining us and sharing his perspective

Contact / More Information:

The Chart Guys - https://www.chartguys.com/

Dan's Youtube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/TheChartGuys/videos

In this episode, we are joined by Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy.

Hirsh does a deep dive on the Arizona market, which implemented its adult use program in a record 2.5 months after legalizing cannabis through a state ballot initiative in November 2020, generating more than $1.35 billion in sales in its first year. Hirsh walks through some of the reasons Arizona's program has had success, including its licensing structure, favorable tax climate and a high level of cooperation between state regulators and the industry.

We also discuss what other states may be in a position to learn from Arizona's example, and implement successful adult use programs in the near future.

It's been only 2 weeks since our last market update and we have seen a very rough market shakeout.

As we face down a volatile equity market we find ourselves asking fundamental questions about investing: Why is the market behaving so wildly? Where should we invest? What sectors will do well? How will cannabis weather the storm?

We talk about key macro considerations like inflation and interest rates and discuss wheher they should factor into our investing decisions. We talk through our reasoning on why investors should still be interested in equities and why cannabis equities in particular are attractive. However, the increased volatility we are seeing means we may want to change strategies, allocations and cash balances going forward.

In this episode we are delighted to bring back our unofficial political correspondent, Jason. Jason has extensive experience working on the ‘Hill’. He was a member of 2 lobbying groups that advocated for safe and fair-trade issues and economic investment in American cities. As well, he worked for an appropriations chairman who focused on financial services and trade issues.

Jason recently wrote a detailed post on reddit titled ‘Understanding Washington: 2022 The Year Ahead’. The post is well written with one of the main themes being: We must see the whole board and understand the position that our legislative agenda fits into the broader picture. This is an important perspective when considering the impact politics plays in Cannabis. We discuss this these along with the following topics:

What events occurred that led to the removal of SAFE from the NDAA

Money in the politics and where to look

How the political catalyst landscape looks for 2022

What, if anything, we can predict about the years beyond this November’s election.

The 3 Political Tests you should do to prevent getting caught up in the hype:

(1) Political Test: Democratic Leadership is comfortable with a vote

(2) Practical Test: There are a majority of votes in Congress

(3) Bi-Partisan Test: there are votes from both sides of the aisle.

Links:

https://www.opensecrets.org/

Jason's Article - Understanding Washington: 2022 The Year Ahead (Click here for the article).

As always, we hope you enjoy this episode.

In this 2022 Market Update we discuss the theme that "nothing has changed" since late last year and why that is both positive and negative for the cannabis industry. In particular we discuss macro factors such as raising interest rates and how that sets up a difficult investing environment for 2022. We also discuss industry specific issues and give some predictions for how they may play out.

Read JP's outlook for SAFE banking - https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/s2cw14/understanding_washington_2022_the_year_ahead/

In this episode of our executive series we are joined by Greg Butler of Cresco Labs. Greg is Cresco's Chief Commercial Officer and has a wide ranging background including pharma, private equity and alcohol.

In this interview we discuss:

Greg's Origins: How he got started in cannabis and why he chose Cresco Labs
Alcohol vs Cannabis: how the industries are different and how they are similar
Competitive Threat: How Big Beer is tracking the cannabis industry
Industry Evolution: how cannabis is changing as it gets more competitive
Building a Cannabis Brand: what it means, what matters and what's changing
Financials: What will drive growth ahead for Cresco
Being the "Partner of Choice": How Cresco is positioning itself for the future of the industry
Investment and Acquisitions: What big CPG will look for when it comes time to partner with an MSO

Thank you to Greg for joining us for this interview!

Welcome to 2022! As we ring in the new year we look forward and shares some of our predictions of what is to come this year.

We discuss upcoming catalysts to get excited about, headwinds to be cautious about and discuss potential wild cards that could upend the market.

If 2021 taught us anything it was that "Nobody Knows" and "Expect Volatility Ahead".

PS - as we start a new year we are looking to hear your suggestions for what topics you'd like to hear about! Please email us your thoughts

Recapping the rollercoaster of the year that was 2021. Cannabis investors were hoping 2021 would be “The Chosen Year” with potential for significant federal change in the US. Instead we got whiplash and a lesson in humility.

In this episode we rewind to the start of the year and discuss how key events played out. The end of the year is a great time to do some sober reflection on what we got right, what we got wrong and what lessons we can take to (hopefully) improve our game in the future.

Some Key Topics:

Nobody Knows: the importance of humility and staying nimble
Everyone is Retail: how price action drives investor mentality
The Quiet Role of Short Sellers and their impact on cannabis
Increased Competition across key markets
SAFE Banking and betting on federal change

We also discuss how the industry has evolved in 2021 and how we are thinking about our investments heading into next year.

Thank you to everyone for listening and sending in great questions! We will see you all in 2022

In this episode we are joined by special guest Hirsh Jain. Hirsh is the founder of Ananda Strategy, a consultancy that works with many of California's leading cannabis brands and retailers and has helped its clients operationalize some of the most successful cannabis facilities in the state.

We unpack what’s changed since Hirsh’s last appearance. We address the elephant in the room which is the carnage that’s happening to California operators and why the top MSO’s have shifted their posture to a wait and see strategy vs looking to establish a footprint in the golden state. Although there is no optimistic sheen to put on California, there are certain steps the companies and municipalities are taking to defend the industry as well as attract investments. During the second half of the episode, we look at what new states could learn from California to make their regulated cannabis roll out more efficient.

As always, if you have any questions for our guest Hirsh, please reach out to him at hirsh@anandastrategy.com or any questions for us please email us.

Connect with Hirsh:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain-b896b080/

Ananda Strategy - http://anandastrategy.com/

In this episode we are joined by Jarrett Annenberg of Newlake Capital Partners. NLCP is a new OTC listed public cannabis REIT who owns dispensaries and cultivation facilities across the US. Their largest tenants include Curaleaf, Cresco, Trulieve, Columbia Care and other single and multi-state operators.

We touch on a wide variety of topics including:

Why a delayed SAFE banking will help Newlake grow its portfolio
History repeating itself: how expectations of SAFE in 2019 are similar to 2021

- The $3B capital opportunity and where Sale-Leaseback fits into the equation

Origins of Newlake: how the company got started by raising $90M in 2019
Scaling up by merging with Green Acreage REIT
How NLCP raised $100M to go public in a soft equity market
"A Safer Way to Play Cannabis" - why larger investors liked cannabis REITs
Why investors should be excited about NLCP and its opportunity for capital appreciation

Thanks to Jarrett for joining us!

Jarrett on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jarrett-annenberg-8584474/

Newlake Investor Deck - https://ir.newlake.com/company-information/presentations

In this episode we are joined by Alan "The Maven" Brochstein. Alan is an extremely experienced cannabis analyst who has been covering the sector since 2014. He is co-founder of New Cannabis Ventures and founder of 420investor.

In this wide ranging conversation we discuss many different topics including:

State of the market: how AB sees the cannabis stock action compared to previous years
Cyclicality of Cannabis Stocks: How the pendulum swings to the extremes
Staying flexible: the importance of combining trading and investing mentality
Altria & Cronos: Why Alan thought (and still thinks) Altria should buy Cronos
Interesting opportunities in the market right now, especially with newer issues

Thanks as always to Alan for joining us to share his insights

Connect with Alan:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/Invest420

420investor - https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/

In this mega-episode our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q3 2021 quarterly review of Cresco, Curaleaf, Trulieve, Green Thumb, and Verano (in that order).

We do a deep dive into profitability, cash flow, brands, valuation and how we see the strengths and weaknesses of each company.

We discuss how well positioned each of these companies is for the current phase of our industry and for the future post-uplisting.

Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

What a difference 2 weeks makes!

In this episode we discuss a few key themes around the biggest issues we are seeing in today's market

1) Narratives vs Reality - how the divergence creates opportunity for investors

2) Nancy Mace Legalization bill - what this really means and the effect its having on the market

3) $MSOS huge cash inflows and how we expect this to impact the cannabis stock market short term

4) Strategy - ideas on position your portfolio to play the ups and downs of cannabis volatility

In this episode (which was recorded on Fri Nov 5th) we discuss the rapid sentiment shift from "Depression" to "Euphoria" and why it is an excellent real-time example of the inefficiency of the cannabis investing market.

We often discuss how our market behaves irrationally but in this episode we delve into the reasons why it is that way, examples of irrational behaviour and strategies to take advantage of these swings.

This week we are joined by fan-favourite Nick Gastevich (aka CannaVestments). Nick is an OG cannabis investor whose family office invested in GTI's first round in 2014 (and again in subsequent years).

In this episode we discuss:

General negativity in the cannabis sector
Schumer, SAFE, NDAA and federal politics
Q3 financial softness in key markets of PA/FL
Other headwinds which can make the short term choppy
Positive catalysts being overlooked including potential 2022 legalization in PA/OH/MD/MO/AK
Re-allocating your portfolio to account for tax loss harvesting
Owning smaller companies vs the biggest MSOs
Strategizing for SAFE vs no-SAFE banking

Thanks to Nick for a great episode as usual.

Connect with Nick:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this (slightly late) episode we debrief a phenomenal MJ Biz conference including our takeaways, the negatives, the positives and our strategies for the coming quarters.

JP October SAFE/NDAA Update - https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/qc4h27/understanding_washington_october_updates/

In this episode we talk about how we can "sharpen our swords" and focus on improving our investing abilities. We talk about mistakes we've made (and re-made), what we've learned and some of the easiest ways to work on your cannabis IQ, investing knowledge and research capabilities in order to (hopefully) reach better outcomes.

In this episode we’re joined by Sayshu Medicherla (@Sayshu_MM), the Founder/CIO of MM Fund. He has extensive experience investing professionally across a variety of asset classes and strategies including public equities, venture capital, private equity, and credit. We cover two major topics today:

First, we discuss different ways to approach investing in cannabis and why it’s important to ‘know what you own’ and understand that the people you’re following throughout various media outlets may not necessarily have the same investment style as you. Sayshu also provides his insights on how he views investing through an institutional lens and how risk comes in various forms whether it’s liquidity, valuation, narrative shifts etc. We also discuss how he thinks about valuations in both a public and private market context.

Second, we discuss the evolving brand story in US cannabis. The story so far has been one of ‘if you can grow weed, you can sell weed’ and the top operators have proven they can run profitable businesses. However, as we look out a couple years, we look at what we feel will be the next battleground for cannabis companies, the battle of the brands. Sayshu explains why he thinks this is a relevant topic for investors today, and how he’s trying to understand the brand strategies of the top companies.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to email us. If you have any questions for Sayshu please feel free to DM him on twitter @Sayshu_MM.

In this episode we are joined by George Archos who is CEO, Chairman and Co-Founder of Verano Holdings.

In this interview we discuss:

Background: How George got started in the restaurant industry
What makes a restaurant successful and why its a good training ground for the cannabis industry
Verano Orgins: How the company got started by winning an IL cultivation license
Expansion Years: Building the base of assets rapidly over 3 years in MD, OH, NJ and NV
Importance of Culture: How George brought in highly motivated people from the restaurant industry to win in cannabis
2018: Consolidation, Raising Capital and a false start in Florida
Legislative Change: Why George is focused on State level changes over Federal
The Harvest Merger: How this transformational M&A side tracked the company and hurt their footprint
First Mover Advantage: Why Verano staked its name on high quality indoor flower
Florida: Why Altmed was a great fit and why they choose to avoid participating in Florida's price war
M&A: Why Verano was so aggressive in AZ and PA to expand the footprint
Financial Performance: What happened to EBITDA margins from Q1 to Q2 and what we can expect longer term
Running Lean: Why 2008 was a key learning lesson that influence's the company to this day
The Future: Expanding the footprint, functioning like CPG
Buying vs Building Brands: Where the company is focusing its energy today

Thanks to George for joining in for this in depth interview!

Connect with George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/georgearchos

In this episode we discuss the importance of admitting "I don't know" when it comes to investing in this sector.

We discuss how "I don't know" can be helpful for:

Taking a more cautious approach to building your portfolio
Federal change, the SAFE act and NDAA news
Selecting which markets are attractive
Evaluating headlines and social media
Managing your cash position
Buying individual stocks vs the MSOS ETF

We also discuss having a CIN meet-up at the upcoming MJ Biz conference in October

The theme of this episode was inspired by a recent episode of Howard Mark's podcast the Memo which you can listen to here:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/podcasts/the-rewind-us-and-them

In this episode we are joined by special guest, Jason, who worked in Washington D.C. for a House Appropriations Chairman and focused on financial services and trade issues. During his career in D.C., he was an integral member of two lobbying groups that advocated for safe and fair trade issues and economic investment in American cities. He is still heavily involved in the political world and currently manages a program that focuses on developing unique financial products to support the development of infrastructure and investment in cities.

Given his extensive experience on “the Hill’, Jason provides a political perspective on why he feels collective wisdom pertaining to federal cannabis reform may be misguided. He explains why he remains bullish but with hesitation and why investors should proceed with caution as they try to unravel political lingo and process.

We discuss at length the process of getting different types of bills passed into law, the recent addition of SAFE into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and finally the Cannabis Administration & Opportunity Act (CAOA). Jason explains why he feels the Democrats are more likely to stick to a social justice agenda when it comes to cannabis and will not give up the capital markets issue without getting social justice measures in whatever legislation moves forward. In short, this could go from a quick and easy protection for banking to a controversial package with many moving parts.

We hope you enjoy this episode and as always if you have any questions feel free to contact us or Jason on reddit at CMDR1305 (https://www.reddit.com/user/Cmdr1305/).

In this episode, we are joined with the guru of the golden coast Hirsh Jain! Hirsh is the founder of Ananda Strategy, a consultancy that works with many of California's leading cannabis brands and retailers and has helped its clients operationalize some of the most successful cannabis facilities in the state.

In this action packed episode we try to further understand the California cannabis landscape and as always we look at both sides of the coin, the challenges and the catalysts. Many of us understand the California cannabis market is ‘fragmented,’ but what does this truly mean from an investment perspective? What are some of the major risks and challenges facing the cannabis investment landscape in California? How is a dialed in professional like Hirsh navigating the state and helping his clients avoid possible pit falls? What are the upcoming catalysts and how can we appropriately position our portfolios to win in this state?

Find out the answers to these questions and more in this episode. As always, if you have any comments or questions feel free to contact us at CINpodcast@gmail.com. We love hearing from you and so do our guests. Please feel free to contact Hirsh at hirsh@anandastrategy.com if you have any specific questions regarding California.

Connect with Hirsh:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirsh-jain-b896b080/

Ananda Strategy - http://anandastrategy.com/

Joining us today is Abner Kurtin who is CEO, Chairman and Co-Founder of Ascend Wellness Holdings (AWH). Abner’s background is as an investor – starting at the highly regarded Baupost and moving on to starting his own hedge fund. He raised $50M to invest in the cannabis space before switching gears and Co-Founding Ascend in 2018.

In only 3 years Ascend has become a top player in IL with an eye to repeating the model in NY, NJ and Mass (the company is also in MI and OH).

In this episode we discuss:

Abner’s Investment Background: What he learned working at Baupost
Raising $50M to Invest in Cannabis: The 3 Key Factors Abner looked for in each deal
Why Investing in MSOs like Grassroots, GTI, Pharmacann made sense
Starting Ascend – Being opportunistic in MA and IL
How AWH became a top player in IL alongside GTI, Cresco & Verano
The importance of being scaled and vertical in every market
NJ: How AWH got started and why NJ will be the story of 2022
What to look forward to in NY and how the state is progressing
Is slow uplisting a risk or opportunity to the cannabis space?
Why is capital allocation so important in this industry?
The Future of Ascend: Acquiring, Merging or Selling the company

Thank you to Abner for joining us for this jam-packed interview

You can find more information on AWH including past earnings calls at: https://awholdings.com/investors/

In this mega-episode our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q2 2021 quarterly review of Cresco, Curaleaf, Green Thumb, Trulieve and Verano (in that order).

We do a deep dive into profitability, cash flow, brands, valuation and how we see the strengths and weaknesses of each company.

As the cannabis market trades poorly we discuss how valuations between these top tier companies have diverged and where we see the most opportunity.

Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this end of August market update we discuss negative market chatter we are hearing. We try to answer - "How long can this go on? And how bad can it get?"

The simple answer is that we don't know - but we think through some of the bear cases for our sector. We also discuss how to win as an investor in a down market. The theme of the episode is that investors are spoiled for choice right now but need a strong stomach and a longer time horizon to take advantage of it.

In this update we cover several earnings update, thoughts on MMEN/Tilray and general ideas about the state of the market.

In this episode we discuss why we believe the market has swung back to "Golden Opportunity" territory and the dynamics behind the shift.

In particular we dig into Trulieve and Verano and explain why we think these two names are have fallen to very attractive multiples based on 2022 EBITDA.

In this episode we ask - what is wrong with cannabis stocks? Why is it despite all the good news, earnings and fundamental progress occurring the cannabis sector continues to bleed red? Should investors be worried that something is wrong or excited about the opportunity this presents?

In this episode we discuss:

Earnings season and how stocks seem numb
The set up: how we got here
Human psychology of winning and losing
Investing vs playing at the casino
Taking advantage of market inefficiencies
Risk factors: what should investors be worried about?

Resources:

Florida Deals - https://flcannabisdeals.org/cannabis-deals-florida/

Part 2/2 - In this episode we are joined by fan favourite Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments to do a deep dive into 7 of our favourite up and coming mid and small cap MSOs. Part 2 has smaller cap companies with potentially more upside but also additional execution risk.

In part 2 of this analysis we go over:

Our Picks for #4-7:

4) Pharmacann (private)

5) Vireo / Goodness Growth

6) Jushi

7) Cansortium

Ranking: Why we feel this way
Origins: Genesis of each company and the progress that has been made
Value: Current valuation and where we see future upside potential
Capital Structure: Shares outstanding, debt and cash on hand
Footprint: Core states today and future growth states
M&A: Past and future prospects
Risks and Challenges with each company

Thanks to Nick for joining us for this epic 2 part series

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this episode we are joined by fan favourite Nick Gastevich aka CannaVestments to do a deep dive into 7 of our favourite up and coming mid and small cap MSOs. We also go over market sentiment, reactions to Schumers bill and why it is worthwhile to look at mid cap MSOs.

In part 1 of this analysis we go over:

Our Top 3 Picks:

1) AYR Wellness

2) Ascend Wellness

3) Columbia Care

Ranking: Why we feel this way
Origins: Genesis of each company and the progress that has been made
Value: Current valuation and where we see future upside potential
Capital Structure: Shares outstanding, debt and cash on hand
Footprint: Core states today and future growth states
M&A: Past and future prospects
Risks and Challenges with each company

Coming next week - part 2 of our analysis where we review picks #4-7

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

In this episode we are once again joined with a special guest, Chris Murray. Chris and Abi discuss a wide array of topics that affect the social stigma in cannabis along with potential factors which are affecting other sectors and could spill over to cannabis.

First we briefly touch on Sha'carri Richardson's recent disqualification in the upcoming Tokyo Olympics after testing positive for THC.

Followed by a look into ESG, Environmental, Social and Governance, which refers to the three key factors when measuring the sustainability and ethical impact of a company. ESG is affecting many other industries including meat, agriculture, metals refining, crypto mining and others. We discuss if this is something cannabis investors should be concerned about.

Lastly, we look back on Tilray and discuss how a restricted cap combined with retail demand on a large US exchange created a perfect storm for the price to shoot to the moon.

As always, we hope you enjoyed this episode.

In this episode we discuss last week's Jefferies ~300 page research report on the US Cannabis industry. The investment bank covers many MSOs, US markets and projects out sales to 2030.

We discuss why we think the headline is true but potentially misleading, try to measure how much upside we see in the next 2-3 years, discuss forward margins and EBITDA multiples and discuss our strategy for earning outsized returns to build our portfolio.

Nostalgia time! In this episode we dive into our experiences over the last 2+ years and discuss how the market has evolved since we started this podcast. While many things have changed, the parallels between market boom and bust, the nature of retail investors and the emotional turmoil of the highs and lows are eerily similar to 2019. We discuss how our past experiences (and mistakes) have hopefully made us better cannabis investors in 2021.

A special thank you to all the listeners who have been with us through the ups and downs; 100 episodes down and we are just getting started!

In this mega-episode our good friend Nick Gastevich joins us for the Q1 quarterly review of Curaleaf, Trulieve, Cresco Labs, Green Thumb and Verano.

We do a deep dive into profitability, core footprints, valuation and how we see the future for each company.

As the broader peer set trades between 10-14X '22 EBITDA we feel the time is right for acquiring these big 5 MSOs. We discuss the theme of value hidden in plain sight for these "Green Chip" companies.

Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

We are joined by a special guest, Andrew Semple from Echelon Wealth Partners. Andrew was recently highlighted as the top performing analyst on Bay St by the Globe and Mail. He's a fundamental investor at heart and finds value in growth stocks.

In this episode we gain insights on federal reform, select limited license states and US MSO's. As well we gain insights on how Semple begins an analysis on a specific market.

Companies mentioned: AYR Wellness, Columbia Care, Curaleaf, GTI, Jushi, Trulieve, Verano.

Links to Andrew’s Research:

· Click here for Andrew’s Weekly Summary June 11, 2021

Link to Andrew's analyst disclaimer - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qc3gGCQQjDVuxi3xKE_qF6wxVEP-_HBM/view?usp=sharing

Correction - Chris mentions Hexo/Truss drinks in the US containing THC. This is an error - these drinks are CBD only.

We are joined by a special guest, Chris Murray. Chris is a veteran in the cannabis sector. He was employee number 7 at Canopy Growth, which was the first Canadian LP to go public on the TSX and NASDAQ and was dubbed the first unicorn in the cannabis sector. Canopy played a pivotal role in shaping today's cannabis sector and today we are joined by Chris who had first hand experience in catching the monumental growth riding the unicorn wave.

In this episode we gain insights on what happened at Canopy. We take a deeper dive into the importance of company culture and how strategic decisions affect it. We look at the differences in strategies between a medical focused company vs an adult use cannabis company and why it's important to differentiate between the two types of customers. As M&A continues to accelerate in the sector, in this episode you'll learn how to view M&A opportunities through a unique qualitative lense.

Companies mentioned: Canopy, Aphria, Aurora, HEXO & Trulieve.

In this episode we dive deep into the state of the cannabis retail market in Florida. Florida has long been one of our favourite markets. Today's guest was on the forefront of the Florida market from a different side of the table. As a real estate developer focused on Florida retail, cannabis operators came onto Randy's radar. He helped these companies rapidly grow their retail footprint over the last few years by being able to source appropriately zoned properties and deal with the variety of issues that complicate the life of dispensaries. But Randy soon realized the payoff for accomplishing these deals could be enormous.

In this episode:

How Randy stumbled into the industry
The early days of Florida's medical market
Doing GTI Florida's first deal
What the heydey of opening dispensaries was like
His thoughts on who's doing it well and how good Trulieve really is
The secrets to success at this stage of the industry

Thanks to Randy for joining for a very fun and informative chat!

Audio Note: There was an echo in this episode we mostly fixed. However the audio may at times be a little odd. Thanks for understanding

In this episode we are joined by the leading cannabis analyst Alan Brochstein. Alan is known for being the sheriff of the wild west of cannabis and applying his deep analytical insights in the cannabis industry.

He is founder of New Cannabis Ventures and shares his insights as "the maven" of 420investor. Alan regularly helps us form our opinions on the cannabis space and helps investors make better investment decisions.

He joins us today in a broad ranging discussion about investor psychology, cannabis fundamentals, company specific discussions and much more. Thanks to Alan for joining us as always.

Twitter - https://twitter.com/Invest420

420investor - https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/

In this episode we unpack last week's interview with Boris Jordan and review in-depth some of the interesting points he raised.

We also do a deeper dive into the Trulieve - Harvest merger and share our thoughts on why it's a true value play and what Kim may be hoping to achieve post-integration.

In this jam-packed episode Boris Jordan joins us in an extremely candid conversation about Curaleaf Holdings. Boris is founder and Executive Chairman of Curaleaf Holdings and is one of the industry's most recognized faces. He is also a prolific cannabis investor having invested over $400M of hard cash into Curaleaf and more into other private cannabis opportunities.

In this wide ranging discussion Boris shares stories and discussions on many topics including:

The First Inning of Curaleaf: how it all started and where we are now
Compliance & Custodying: how the recent compliance forced institutional selling is a repeat of 2019
Guidance: What is driving the massive Q2 growth Curaleaf is projecting?
Interstate Commerce: why Boris thinks it is inevitable and how they are planning for it
Driving Down Costs: Technology that could cut manufacturing cost by 90%
Being National: Why it's important to be in highly competitive markets like California and Oregon
Wide & Deep: How the recent Trulieve & Harvest merger validates Curaleaf's early thesis
Florida: what mistakes were made, how they were fixed and the future
Cost of Capital: refinancing Curaleaf debt in 2022 at 7-8% without warrants
Private Investing: How Boris fills the "venture investing" role for Curaleaf
Being the Biggest: Why it matters
Margins & Growth: How Curaleaf compares to its competition
M&A: The importance of Select & Grassroots
Mistakes: Learning from past issues

Thank you to Boris Jordan for joining us for this episode!

We are joined with a friend of the podcast, Pat Smith, former sell side analyst on Bay St.

In this episode we cover a broad range of topics including how investors are switching from simply reading headlines to analyzing fundamentals and why cannabis continues to be a value play.

We discuss how the broader markets are impacting our sector, as well touch on how crypto, gold, bond yields and the vaccine roll out could affect cannabis.

Note: there is an echo in the audio if you listen using headphones; it goes away if you listen through a speaker. Sorry about that, new audio set up this time!

In this episode we talk about watching your back! Cannabis investing is buyer beware and investors should always be thinking about mitigating their downside risk.

We discuss our personal viewpoints, investment philosophies and trading tactics for minimizing your downside risk in cannabis investing

In this episode we share our thoughts on the market before answering listener questions

Back to future: how our current pullback is eerily reminiscent of 2019
Comparisons to crypto, psychedelics and other speculative asset classes
Legalization let down: why investors shouldn't be discouraged

Listener Questions:

What do we think about the MSOS ETF?
Show new investors be worried if cannabis is regulated similar to alcohol? (see link)
How do we feel about certain speculative "penny stocks"?
Questions about cannabis companies exporting to the EU
Are the Big 5 MSOs the best investments in the sector?
If we had to start over again, what would our portfolios look like?

Correction: We mentioned 300K patient count in Germany; 300K is the number of prescriptions written; patient count is estimated much lower at 60K

Buckle up boys and girls - in this epic episode we have the one and only CannaVestments (Nick Gastevich) joining us for a deep dive into the big 5 MSOs (now including Verano).

In this episode we discuss

Overall thoughts on the market and having a long term focus
Core markets for each of the big 5
Financial performance for Q4 and 2020
Where the majority of profits are being generated today
What excites us for the future of each company

Thanks to Nick for another great and extensive review

Connect with Nick:

Twitter - https://twitter.com/CannaVestments

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/

Family Office Website - https://www.vginvests.com/

Story time! In this episode we get nostalgic and share our experiences of the ups and downs of cannabis investing from 2017-2019.

In what was truly the boom and bust of speculative cannabis investing we learned some hard lessons which can be instructive for newer investors.

In this episode:

Starting with a bang in 2017 with Canopy and Aphria
Investing in a company at 30c and hitting a 20X return...then watching it come back
How a private California deal went wrong
Lessons learned through tough experiences

In this episode we dive into the psychology behind the sharp pullback our sector has seen and we ask - what are cannabis investors so afraid of?

Agenda:

Common Retail Mistakes that we see taking place
The Momentum Trade dying down and what this means
New York Legalizes! What this means for the industry
SAFE and Legalization Talks
GTI and the Crisis of Confidence
What we were scared of in the past (and what's changed)
What are retail investors really afraid of?

Ascend Wellness S1: https://sec.report/Document/0001628280-21-005806/

Wall Street Journal Article on Retail Investors Retreating: https://www.wsj.com/articles/individual-investors-retreat-from-markets-after-show-stopping-start-to-2021-11617528781

We are joined by a special guest, Manuj Grover from Aim Gro Consulting. Manuj has over 20 years of experience in finance and has helped many private Cannabis companies gain access to US and Canadian investors via Regulation A (Reg A) raises, the most recent being Gage Cannabis.

In this episode we cover Reg A raises, one of the many ways for retail investors to participate in pre IPO investments, and how it’s changing the investing landscape as we know it.

The following topics are covered in more detail:

Reg A vs. traditional private placements

Criteria for tier 1 and tier 2 raises

Why Reg A is gaining popularity

Risks and rewards associated with investing in private companies

Dangers associated with Reg A raises

Link: Click here for SEC Form 1 Filings

Companies mentioned: GTII, Gage Cannabis, Juva Life

In this episode we delve deep into the mind of mysterious "retail investor". Since cannabis is a retail dominated market it is important to understand how this impacts volatility and the opportunities it creates.

We cover 3 main topics:

Who is Retail? What constitutes Retail vs Institutional?
What are the most common mistakes retail investors make?
How can we avoid making these mistakes?

In this episode we delve into the importance of digging deep into potential cannabis investments

We discuss:

Why its important to do due diligence (DD) before investing
Setting clear goals of what you hope to achieve
How DD should help your understanding of the business and the operators
What to look for in potential deals
Where to look (public and private)
Resources provided by the company
The importance of public filings

Following up on last week's volatility cannabis investors are left asking - what now? In this episode we share our core thesis of buying weakness in US cannabis names (selectively and at the right valuations). However, we debate both sides of buying now vs waiting for more pain.

In this market update:

Where are we now?
Why rising bond yields matter and what cannabis investors should know
How stimulus affects the short term
Catalyst: NY Legalization
Catalyst: SAFE & Uplisting
Catalyst: Federal legalization
How each of these could play out and how they could fail
Strategies for adding or waiting depending on your portfolio
Earnings season inbound for US Cannabis

In this episode we talk about how rattling it can feel to see large pullbacks in the broader market leading to wilder swings in the cannabis markets. As we lived through this last week we ask - how do we prepare ourselves mentality for this volatility?

What happened last week? Understanding why the 10 year bond rate matters
Human psychology: why is loss felt more acutely than gain?
What does loss cause investors to do?
Dispelling popular investment myths
Using stop losses vs "diamond handing"
What no one talks about (openly) in investing
Simple strategies can be better than complicated ones

We are joined by a special guest, Todd Harrison, who is the founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer of CB1 Capital. Todd is also an advisor for the prolific big board listed ETF MSOS which now has over $1B in assets.

Todd is a seasoned professional who has over +30 years on Wall Street managing risk and researching financial market strategies. Todd is also quickly becoming one of the "go-to" investment voices in the cannabis industry. You can find him on Twitter (@todd_harrison), read his substack @ Cannabis Confidential or see him on TV educating the public on the cannabis opportunity (links below).

This is an action packed episode, where we cover a broad range of topics.

Starting off with he calm before the storm, Todd gives his perspectives into what lays ahead for the cannabis industry, how the ‘big boys’ have not sat at the table and how the Robinhooders have not ‘dipped their arrows’ yet.

Todd gets into the power of the plant, cannabis 3.0, the idea of holding the best companies, how his mindset is evolving and much more.

We discuss where both short term and long-term opportunities lie, whether it’s the privates or the public names. We hope you enjoy this episode and please make sure to DYDD and understand that nothing shared during this interview in considered financial advice.

Thanks to Todd for bringing his signature upbeat style combined with financial insights.

Companies mentioned: Verano, Parallel, GTI, Cresco, Columbia Care, AYR Wellness, Curaleaf.

Find Todd online:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/todd_harrison

Substack Articles: https://toddharrison.substack.com/

In this episode we dissect how we think about Growth vs Value investing. While the market divides companies and investors into two separate camps they don’t need to be.

Once in a while an opportunity comes along that gives us the chance to experience high growth at value prices! US Cannabis is that golden opportunity.

Topics Covered:

Why Warren Buffett’s way of investing doesn’t work for everyone
What is Growth Investing?
What is Value Investing?
Why is it so hard to get growth and value together?
GARP Investing: Growth at a Reasonable Price
US Cannabis gives us the opportunity for growth and value
Using Cansortium as a live example
Verano RTO hitting the market
Playing Verano through SOL (and how this is an example of value investing)

Howard Marks Memo on Value vs Growth: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf

As Canadian LPs like Tilray and Canopy enjoy historic runs (along with MSOs) we find ourselves asking - what now? Should we be taking chips off the table or holding strong? In this episode we discuss:

What we think is causing the parabolic run
The WallStreetBets / $GME effect coming to the cannabis industry
Short squeeze in full effect
Warning signs / red flags
Unusual trading activity on TLRY, Canopy, Supreme and MMEN
GTI's new $100M institutional raise
Question: Sell GTI or let it ride?
Question: What companies do we like for long-term investing and why?
Question: Won't Canadian LPs be able to enter the US soon?
Question: Trading vs Investing

In this episode we delve into an issue that has become an absolute obsession of ours - GameStop. This story is the intersection of the stock market, retail investors and social media. Since cannabis is a retail dominated industry with a heavy presence on reddit, we can draw some great parallels to what we are seeing play out.

There are many lessons to be learned here as our community is very likely to see an influx of retail investors in the near future.

In this episode:

1) What happened? The Perfect Storm

2) Digging Deeper - looking past the obvious

3) Overcoming the initial emotional reaction

4) Robinhood, WeBull, Interactive Brokers & DTCC

5) Thinking about the end game

6) Lessons learned for cannabis investors

7) The dangers of reddit to making good investment decisions

8) So what? How to prepare ourselves for our "GameStop moment"

Links & Resources referenced:

Roaring Kitty / Deep Value GME Investment Thesis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alntJzg0Um4&ab_channel=RoaringKitty

Interactive Brokers Chairman worried about integrity of system:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RH4XKP55fM&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

WeBull CEO says Clearing House restricted trading by increasing collateral:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ8AfbjW_A8&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance

DTCC Clearing Naked Short History:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depository_Trust_%26_Clearing_Corporation#Naked_short_selling

We are joined by a special guest, Andrew Semple from Echelon Wealth Partners. Andrew was recently highlighted as the top performing analyst on Bay St by the Globe and Mail. He's a fundamental investor at heart and finds value in growth stocks.

In this episode we cover a unique arbitrage opportunity in Canadian dispensaries and take a closer look at select US MSO's and states that have institutional investors excited.

Companies mentioned: High Tide, Fire & Flower, GTI, Cresco, Columbia Care, AYR Strategies, Curaleaf.

Links to Andrew’s Research:

Click here for Andrew’s Weekly Summary Jan 15, 2021

Click here for Globe and Mail article - Top Performing Canadian Equity Analysts

Click here for Analyst Disclosure Link

In this episode we are joined by seasoned cannabis investor and all around gentleman Nick Gastevich (known online as CannaVestments).

You can find Nick on linkedin @ https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-gastevich-75841346/or see his family office website @ https://www.vginvests.com/

The 4 “next tier” MSOs we cover are:

1) Columbia Care

2) AYR Strategies

3) TerrAscend

4) Jushi

We discuss:

Why it’s important to dig into these mid-tier MSOs
How these players have a chance to out perform through M&A
How investors should analyze these company’s footprints
Why fundamentals and IR mismatch can be an opportunity
Which companies we like the most from a value perspective

For each company we do a deep dive on:

The footprint and “core markets”
Which markets are the most attractive
How we think the company will perform in 2021 and beyond
How M&A has shaped the company
Revenue and EBITDA multiples
Valuation: where do we see value?

Thanks to Nick for joining us – his insights are always greatly appreciated

After an extremely positive start to 2021 we find ourselves asking - should we be excited for what's ahead or nervous of the recent rally we've had?

In this episode we discuss:

The democrats winning both senate seats and flipping the senate
The state of the market: should investors be worried by the speculation?
How investors are moving from "the middle to the edges" across the market
What is still to come for US cannabis
How values can evolve over time and how investors have to adapt
The various capital raises by Jushi, Columbia Care, Curaleaf, Planet 13 and more
Why what worked in the past for cannabis may not work in the future
The importance of the MSOS ETF and why it is just getting started
What happens as institutions start to come in the space
How to position yourself incase a correction comes
Why "this time is different" for cannabis investors

In this episode we have some fun and share forecasts and ideas for what we expect to see in 2021

1) Multiple Ways to Win - there will be many different wants for companies and investors to profit in the new year

2) 2021 will be the "Year of Catalysts"

Potential for new states like New York to flip to rec (also RI, CT, NM, VA)
Markets transitioning to adult-use: AZ & NJ
Existing markets having organic growth: MI, FL, IL, PA
Medical markets opening up or issuing lics: GA, TX, MS
Potential for political tailwinds if Dems win both senate seats: SAFE and uplisting

3) Volatility + Exercise Caution

Investors have been spoiled by this bull market
Keep some cash, stay hedged and be prudent
Expect bumps along the way

4) Stay Flexible - things change quickly

investors will need to learn on the fly as the market evolves
your 2020 playbook that succeeded may need to change for 2021
higher valuations mean investors need to be more selective and smarter

5) The Great Separation Continues

Which markets will continue to outperform and why?
Why will losing markets continue to struggle?

6) The Big 4 is no more

The big 4 MSOs is an antiquated concept
Introduction of Verano creates a big 5
But in reality there is a big 10 already: AYR, Columbia Care, Ascend Wellness, Jushi & TerrAscend
Investors will have to adapt to these new names which will create opportunity
Where we see value and what we like

7) Scale will be more important

As capital is readily available and legalization accelerates the game has changed
Shift from pure focus on profitability to having the footprint to be a significant player

In this episode we reflect on what we've learned in 2020, why it is important and how we plan to improve our game going into 2021. Happy new year everyone!

Discussed in this episode:

Humility: how this year humbled us and taught us that "no one knows"
How 2020 was a break out year for cannabis
What would we have done differently?
Things change quickly - how perception (and reality) shifted in 2020
The Big 4 MSOs were the big winners of 2020; who will be the winners of tomorrow?
How the Fed helped prevent a financial disaster and propelled the markets to record highs
The AYR and LHS acquisition - what we think and how it went down (and why AYR/LHS could be a win-win)
Keep refreshing your thinking - don't get stuck on old perceptions of the market (or a company)
Back to the Future! How you can understand what will happen next
The information advantage - the 3 tiers of cannabis investors
Taking risk and making hay while the sun shines
The value of IR in a company's brand to investors (eg. Trulieve)
Winning Big, Losing Small: swing big at fat pitches
The importance of MSOs achieving scale going forward
A big thank you and new years message for our listeners

Happy 2021!

In this episode we are joined by a special guest and friend of ours, Alex Gastevich. Alex's family office (VGI Investments) has deep experience investing in cannabis since their first investment in GTI in 2014. He joins us to discuss how he and his family think about picking a winner in the cannabis space.

In this episode:

How VGI first invested in the cannabis space in 2014
How do you define a "winner"?
The importance of long term thinking and "intangible fit"
Private investments in cannabis - how does decision making differ?
Private MSO Ascend Wellness (AWH) and how we decided to invest
Understanding the fundamentals of a limited license market to pick a winner
How to become a better investor in this space
Why the Verano IPO will be one of the hottest in the space and why you should pay attention
Valuation - why it matters and how to think about it
Trading vs Investing with WeedMaps, Verano and SOL as examples
The importance of having an investing network and discussing opportunities from many viewpoints

Thanks to Alex for joining us and sharing some great insights, you can connect with him below:

VGI Family Office - https://www.vginvests.com/

Alex on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-gastevich-088a6043/

Back by popular demand we have Alan Brochstein joining us! Alan is known across the industry as "the leading cannabis analyst" and joins us today to share his insight on why he is so bullish on the future of the Cannabis industry. "The Maven" knows this industry and its players inside and out and his 420investor service (https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/) is our favourite resource for making money in cannabis investing, especially in this bull market.

In this episode we discuss:

Post-Election thinking and the Cannabis Bull Market
4 Reasons why Alan is so bullish on cannabis (the 4 legs of the stool)
Technicals, Fundamentals, Valuation and Sentiment - which of these points to future upside?
Names that AB has liked this year and what he likes going forward
Why investing is "not a beauty contest" and what that means
How to invest in cannabis if you're afraid of a market pullback
Why Alan thinks cannabis investors shouldn't ignore Canada
How California is turning a corner and why The Parent Company could be interesting
IPOs & New Companies: Verano, The Parent Company, WeedMaps and more
Shifting from the Big 4 to the Big 10-15 MSOs - what will this mean for the market?
Revisiting the MSOS ETF and how it is a "game changer"
AB's big prediction for 2021 and what he's the most excited about

Thank you to Alan for coming on and sharing his valuable insights.

If you enjoyed this episode and want more of Alan's insights and picks, we highly recommend you look into a subscription for 420i @ https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/

We also suggest you sign up for AB's free weekly newsletter @ https://www.newcannabisventures.com/subscribe/

The balance sheet might not be the most reflective of how well a company is doing.

Today we are joined by an incredibly special guest, Patrick Smith, a special situations analyst from Bay St.

Patrick shares with us some great insights and tips on how to quickly analyze financial statements and why the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows are a better gauge of where the company is headed. Patrick put together a comprehensive powerpoint to follow him during this episode.

Please click here for 4 Front financial statements

Please see our Google Drive here for the PowerPoint (and other episode files):

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/180DITZc5unsNnc-beUP8eOlHH_ANPq51?usp=sharing

Please note we recorded this episode early Tues morning and the cannabis markets has turned ugly by close Tues night.

Which is the important theme of this episode - as hype and speculation return in force to the cannabis industry investors need to be careful and be fearful when others are being greedy.

In this episode:

What the hell is going on?
Explaining wild price action over the last few days
Rally of the "others" not the big 4 MSOs

- ACB as a proxy for the wildness of this market and unsustainability

How to protect yourself while taking advantage of the "risk on" mindset

In this episode we are joined by special guest Nick Gastevich. You may have seen Nick posting online under the name CannaVestments where he regularly shares financial analysis and commentary about US Cannabis companies.

Nick has deep insight into the large MSOs and through his family office invested in GTI and Cresco as private companies.

In this episode we cover Curaleaf, Trulieve, GTI & Cresco's Q3 results and for each company we discuss:

Top Line metrics and Growth
Gross Margin and adjusted EBITDA
Cash Flow & Capital Expenditures
Footprint analysis - which states are driving revenue and profitability?
Future growth - which states represent the most future upside?
Valuation - what multiple does the company trade at? Do we view it as cheap or expensive?

This is an action packed episode - many thanks to Nick for joining us and sharing his insights

Please note: we had a technical issue and one of our mics somehow had the "witness protection" filter put on.

In this episode we discuss how cannabis investors should weigh the potential risks associated with COVID and the broader markets

Vaccine Optimism is pushing markets higher - is too much optimism priced in?
Vaccine is much welcome news and provides a light at the end of the tunnel
However many risks remain as we head into a prolonged "dark winter"
Lack of fiscal stimulus, lack of US federal COVID response and why a delayed transition is particularly bad this year
Risk feels mispriced - from bonds to commercial real estate this remains a real overhang
So what? Cannabis is performing very well but is not immune to broader markets
Lack of stimulus hurts consumers; market correction will hurt weed stocks
How do we plan around this? What measures can we take?
Portfolio and cash management over 2021
Discussion of MediPharm Lab's BRUTAL Q3 and a longer term outlook
Thinking about B2B for Village Farms and Cresco Labs

In this episode we digest the results of the US election and discuss why we are bullish on the future of US cannabis

In this episode we discuss:

Why investors should be careful with this "sugar high" rally on Canadian LPs
What a Biden win means for US Operators
Why this is good for future M&A
How cannabis will fare under a split senate or under a republican senate
Why "more of the same" is actually a win for existing players
Why the NASDAQ remains the holy grail and how that impacts the current players
How The Golden Age of Investing is likely to be prolonged

We finish off with a few listener questions from Alex, Zachary and Ben D

In this post-election special we discuss what the future holds for cannabis investors and how to manage uncertainty

This week we discuss the importance of continually evolving your thinking in the rapidly developing cannabis landscape.

Why updating your mindset is so important
How to filter noise from real trend changes

Topics that we discuss our updated thinking on:

Flower vs Extracted products
Brands in Flower (how and why Cookies has performed so well)
Vertical Integration
Importance and Long Term Viability of Dispensaries
Extractors
Rec vs Medical markets

Lastly we give some final thoughts before the upcoming US election next week

In this episode we share an optimistic outlook for US Cannabis regardless of who wins the Senate or White House in Nov. Instead we talk about the positive developments we expect to see by the time we get to the next US election in 2024 and why we might look back on this period as "The Golden Age".

What makes this "The Golden Age" for US Cannabis investing? Why does it not apply to Canada?
Lack of capital, lack of access and lack of good information
Pricing on Public vs Private cannabis companies
Radical transformation of the industry expected over the next 3-5 years
Future recreational states: NY, NJ, PA & FL (representing ~60M people)
Some glaring inefficiencies in our market and how they will be corrected over time
Positive developments at the municipal level
Less talked about markets like South Dakota, Montana and Mississippi (and why they matter)
Future volatility and downside risk still very likely (and why that's an opportunity)

Listen to the speakers from last week's Benzinga conference for free @ https://www.benzinga.com/events/cannabis/virtual/

In this episode we take listener questions on the upcoming US elections and US Cannabis in general.

In this episode:

Kamala Harris and the uncertainty of Timing
Will the US Decriminalize or Legalize? What’s the difference?
Will the FDA get involved in THC regulation like they did with CBD?
Do we have data to support the thesis that NASDAQ-listed weed stocks can outperform?
Low Volume Weed Stocks – should they be avoided? Why might they be a good opportunity?
Will the US eventually become like Canada as more capital flows in? Why or why not?
How will SAFE Banking affect Cannabis REITs?
What is the best Cannabis beverage so far and when will it come to the US?
Which players will benefit the most from coming state legalizations?
“Don’t sell the winners; come back in a few years” – why not buy and hold instead of trading?
Will Weed Stocks bubble then crash (similar to 2018) with the coming US Election?
Thoughts on options trading in Cannabis?
Which Fortune 500 companies do you see jumping into Cannabis?
What is the biggest risk to cash flows for US MSOs?
What is going on “behind the scenes” that investors should be aware of?
Which MSO would benefit the most from a Biden win or a “blue wave”?
Which MSO is the most undervalued?

Thanks to pmitch, Ankur, BuildSoc, Airick-The-Great, SongWriter, Opposite Day, Alderho10 & Zebah for the questions!

A few months ago we discussed Cannabis trading ideas around the US Presidential Election - now with under 30 days to go until the big day we revisit the names we find interesting and our related strategies. The theme of today's episode is "sometimes things get complicated".

How Trump hitting pause on stimulus talks could hurt weed stocks
Reflecting on how the market has recovered since the March lows
How the upcoming election might cause an extreme outcome and civil unrest
Why the ballot initiatives in AZ and NJ are such a big deal - and which one matters more
4 Nasdaq listed names that have the potential to heat up: Grow Gen, IIPR, Greenlane & Scots Miracle Grow
Which of these 4 we like the most and why
The Big 4 MSOs - how are they positioned going into the election and into 2021?
Demanding a margin of safety in your cannabis investments to hedge your risk

In this episode we try to understand - why is Canada such a mess? Are we approaching an inflection point where things change? Is there a buying opportunity in Canada?

Who Cares? Why investors should pay attention to Canada
What Happened? How did we get here
Why did it happen?
Where are now?
Where are we headed?
Is it a buying opportunity?
What areas or indicators are we watching?

**Note: audio quality is a little funky as we adjust to the new studio but gets better after the 5 min mark; we will improve on the next one!

In this episode we delve into the concept of risk adjusted return when investing in cannabis:

What is Risk?
How do we measure and think about risk?
What risks are specific to the Cannabis industry that investors need to watch out for?
Why is it so important to think about risk in this industry
Why valuation is one of the most important things to investors
Trulieve's PA Acquisitions - how do risk and return play into making this decision
How should investors think about potential return?
Balancing risk and return in your cannabis portfolio
Examining names like Liberty Health, Trulieve and Ianthus in terms of risk vs reward

In this episode we explore the benefits and challenges of chasing momentum or seeking value in the cannabis industry.

Topics:

Momentum Investing
What is it?
How do we find momentum opportunities
How does it apply to the cannabis space and why does it matter
Value Investing
What is it?
What makes a good value investment
Examples of cannabis investments which are value oriented (LHS & Vireo)
Pitfalls of value investing
Momentum vs Value
What should investors look at in cannabis
Why the big 4 MSOs might experience superior growth
How capital raising creates a competitive advantage
Cannabis vs Tech and "winner take all"
Our Strategies
Investment decisions made in 2020
Private vs Public investments
US Election in Nov - which stocks we've purchased to try to ride the momentum

In this episode we are joined by Nick Gastevich who is known on the forums as CannaVestments. He is known for deep cannabis knowledge, a keen analytical eye and being an all-around nice guy.

Nick runs a family office along with his brother - they started in the industry in 2014 with an investment in Green Thumb. He joins us on this episode to do a deep dive on the "Green Chip" cannabis names which have captured investor attention lately.

In this episode we review:

Green Thumb (GTI)
Trulieve
Cresco Labs
Curaleaf

For each company we review

Footprint of each company
Key markets for each company (now and in the future)
Which markets and assets are the most exciting
Q2 Financials - Revenue, Gross Margins & Adjusted EBITDA
2020 & 2021 Earnings Multiples
Valuations of each company: now and in the future
Ranking of the big 4 at current prices

Note: This episode was recorded a few weeks ago, since then Florida has legalized edibles

In this week's episode we are joined by Alan Brochstein of 420investor (https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/) and New Cannabis Ventures (https://www.newcannabisventures.com/).

Alan (aka "The Maven") is one of the leading providers of original thought and analysis in the cannabis space. He runs 3 cannabis-only model portfolios on 420i and he joins us to talk about his investing philosophy as well as how things are changing since he started in 2014.

Topics Covered:

Intro to Alan, 420i and New Cannabis Ventures
The Three Waves of Cannabis Investing since 2012
First Wave - Total Speculation & Garbage Companies - Late 2012 to Early 2016
Second Wave - Canadian Legalization Wave - 2016 to early 2020
Third Wave - US MSO Fundamentals & Potential Legalization - Mid 2020 to ?
How Alan called a Cannabis Bull Market in May 2020
"This Time is Different" for Cannabis Companies
The one time Alan moved to all cash in his model portfolio
"How the Market works" with a live example
Technical vs Fundamental Investing (or Momentum vs Value)
Mistakes Made & Timing the Market
The new MSOS ETF by AdvisorShares
How will this NASDAQ listed ETF affect weed stocks?
How Investors may be able to "Front-run" the MSOS ETF
Investing for the 2020 Election - Risks and Catalysts
Inefficiencies in Cannabis presents great opportunity for Investors
The Big 4 MSOs Potentially Evolving to the Top 10
The Most Common Mistake Investors Make
Is a Mass Extinction Event still in the works?

Thanks to Alan - this is an insight packed episode!

In this episode we do a 2020 update to our "How to Invest in Weed Stocks" episode from 2019. A lot has changed in the year since and it's important to upgrade your game accordingly! We discuss how things have changed and the mindset you should have going forward.

In this episode:

Understanding Risk in Cannabis Investing
What you should learn about
Advantages of learning
Understanding the cannabis business
Deciding to Invest - Questions to answer before Pulling the Trigger
Trading vs Investing in Cannabis

In this episode we have our first guest ever! Alex Gastevich runs a family office along with his brother and mother. Based out of Chicago the Gastevich family were early round investors in GTI in 2014. Alex joins us to discuss:

Investing in early round Cannabis companies (GTI and Medipharm)
The value of having multiple perspectives in investing decisions
What's the craziest thing you've seen in the cannabis space?
What makes a cannabis company successful?
What are signs of being in a cannabis bubble?
What's the biggest lost you've taken in this industry?
What's your end game?

This was a very fun episode, thanks to Alex for joining us!

In this week's episode we answer questions regarding the amazing performance of the large MSOs:

Are US MSOs better than the Canadian LPs?
Why are they out performing?
Why the US is a better place for the cannabis sector
What makes a market successful for cannabis companies (Canada, California, Oregon vs Illinois, Florida & NJ)
Canopy vs GTI vs Trulieve
Are the US companies over priced?
Are the Canadian names priced for value?
The power of the NASDAQ listing
A word of caution on chasing momentum

In this market update we revisit our concerns from the March COVID episode and the January Mass Extinction Event episode. We cover feeling bullish on cannabis (and why) as well as understanding why weed stocks are so hot (and if it makes any sense).

In this week's episode we are excited about acceleration of future legalization of cannabis in the US and we discuss trading and investing strategies for cannabis stocks.

1) Biden - Sanders Task Force Plan

How real is this? How does it play into the coming Democratic National Convention?
Social Justice reform, Police reform and change all accelerate cannabis legalization
DNC provides an opportunity for democrats to discuss ending the war on drugs

CAUTION - legalization hype is building quickly but actual legalization takes years to pass and implement

2) Investment Strategies for Legalization Hype

Many different ways to play this with various risk/reward - which makes the most sense?

a) "The Big 4" - GTI, Trulieve, Cresco & Curaleaf - obvious candidates as retail comes in

b) Ancillary & US-Listed Companies - IIPR, Greenlane & GrowGen

c) Tertiary Plays - Canadian LPs, Foreign Companies, Low Cost Countries

Remember: Hype is not rational - capital will flow regardless of valuations

US Legalization hype will make Canadian hype look like "a drop in the bucket"

3) Institutional Capital Flowing into US Cannabis

How will it play out?
When should investors get in? When to get out?
What are the best risk/reward strategies?

This episode we explore: Is Cannabis investing or Gambling?

Whats the difference?

Why does it matter?

Examining your own behavior and changing it

We're finally back in the studio! This week we look forward at the various ways the US could legalize cannabis

1) Why You Should Care about US Legalization

US is the crown jewel of the international market
Over $12B USD in state-legal sales in 2019 (vs $1.2B CAD for Canada)
Huge capital available once NASDAQ & NYSE listings are available
US has higher prices, limited licenses and far less government regulation for cannabis

2) How will US Legalization Go Down?

Likely to be a phased approached as opposed to one big legalization

Several possibilities for how it can be done:

a) Decriminalization

b) De-scheduling or Re-scheduling (may come under FDA regulation)

c) SAFE Act - access to banking and lending

d) STATES Act - allows state law to be compliant with federal law

e) Full Legalization - federally mandates legalization across entire country

3) What is the Biden Plan? Will it actually happen?

Biden Plan is a marketing document designed to excite the base
We need to see Biden mention the plan or champion it before believing it
Biden Plan involves medical legalization + STATES Act

4) How Will Legalization Change the Industry?

Effect on industry will depend on the type of legalization
SAFE vs STATES vs Full Federal Legalization
Being on US Exchanges will be the biggest catalyst

5) Will cannabis be allowed to cross state lines?

6) How to Invest around Legalization

Market Update: COVID risk is growing rapidly but Cannabis is looking good

Broader market remains buoyed by Fed Support but valuations are stretched
COVID is accelerating across US and is a massive threat with exponential growth
Lack of political will to close down economy again; somehow wearing a mask has become a political issue
Relation to cannabis: do you look at the stats or listen to the pundits?

Cannabis

Has performed very well in pandemic; strong sales; essential status
Cannabis is perfect for a COVID / isolated world
Long term: accelerates opportunity for legalization and reforms
RISK: stimulus still flowing, things can slide backwards (Ontario pulling back delivery and curbside)

o Nevada can be soft ; But updates from AYR Q2 are encouraging

o Many lower quality companies on the edge

Diving deeper into AYR Strategies (CSE: AYR)
Sentiment: Investors are upset and can easily dump despite good results (eg. LHS)
Separation of winners and losers but many retail investors don’t really care (gamble vs investing)

In this episode we dive into Medipharm Lab's Q1 2020 results which greatly disappointed the market

What's going on with LABS? Why did it have such a drop off in revenue?
How does it compare to Valens?
Examining their recent $37M financing (good and bad)
How the slow 2.0 rollout is hurting the extraction industry
Why 2019 was such a good year for LABS - will it recover?
How will the extraction landscape look in the next 1-3 years?

In this episode we discuss strategies for taking advantage of the current bull market the Fed has created

The realization that the Fed will actively try to prevent the market from falling to prevent fear from dominating the market (as shown on Mon)
The market is likely to remain distorted which creates opportunities for investors
How do we play this bull market while being cautious about the disconnect between prices and fundamentals?
Debating investing in legacy business like Airlines and Theatres

STRATEGY

PATIENCE! Keep your powder dry as it takes time for the market to re-adjust
Thinking of investing like private placements with the ability to hold for 1-3 years if prices tanks
Buying top tier companies like Green Thumb (GTI) with the understanding it may take a while to grow into the value
Deploying cash selectively in overlooked names with good risk/reward
How? Looking for small cap cannabis companies which have good fundamentals but have lagged in share price
Liberty Health (LHS) as an example
Comparing Canada to the US

LOOKOUT

Don't chase high prices on low volume
Emotional investors are back! Watch out for them

In this episode we talk about the unbridled optimism in the general equity markets and how that flows into cannabis.

SPY is 7-10% HIGHER than it was 1 year ago
Market effectively pricing in V shaped recovery
Does this make sense? Should investors be buying?
The importance of a margin of safety in investing
How cannabis has been buoyed by the broader markets
The "Big 4" MSO: GTI, TRUL, Curaleaf & Cresco
Potential risks being overlooked by the market

In this episode we delve into understanding the disconnect between real life and the stock market.

Why is the S&P above 3,000 when the economy is frozen? Why are cannabis stocks on an absolute tear? Does this make any sense?

What can we learn from this disconnect and how does it influence our investing philosophy?

Two Key Principles:

Anything can happen in markets
Nobody knows what will happen next

After a strong week for cannabis stocks we delve into the reasons for optimism for cannabis investors.

Strong Results Prove out the Investment Thesis

a. GTI posting 25% EBITDA on $100M USD of revenue

b. TRUL likely to post 50%+ EBITDA on similar revenue

New Markets set to Open

a. NJ (9M) and AZ (7M) both on the 2020 ballot

b. NJ could cause domino effect with PA (13M), NY (20M)

COVID-19 Proving Sales are “sticky”

a. Cannabis being recession proof / resistant; defensive sector

Canada Getting Better

a. 2.0 rollout and Ontario retail expansion

b. ACB and Canopy improving (not out of the woods yet)

Wildcard – SAFE Act & Legalization / Election Talk

a. Possibility to get SAFE through senate with COVID bill

b. Potential election talk related to cannabis legalization

In this episode we examine the key take aways from Berkshire's 2020 Annual General Meeting (AGM).

Why did Buffett sell his entire airline holdings (~$6.5B) at a loss?

What can we learn from the legendary investor with regards to his view on the current market?

We also discuss how we look at investing from a long and short term lens.

Can we really be long term investors in this space? Are we better off taking short term profits?

When does it make sense to "sell it all" and move to the sidelines?

In this episode we touch on the recent developments in the general markets and cannabis stocks.

The market has rallied considerably in the last few weeks to within 15% of it's pre-COVID all-time highs. Does that make sense? Why is it reacting this way? And what's with the recent cannabis rally?

We go through what we think is happening and why you should exercise caution before chasing the dragon.

Happy 4/20! In this episode we take a step back and review how much the cannabis industry has advanced in the last year.

From Boom to Bust - how the capital markets overshot and are now correcting
Milestones - major progress has been made in the last year
Is it a good time to invest in cannabis? Positives and negatives

Is the S&P 500 overvalued or cheap? That depends on what you think the "new normal" will be. In this episode we discuss how the economy may look very different post-COVID and how long it could take to recover:

The strong market rally - what are investors thinking?

3 reasons why the future normal could be very dissapointing

1) Record high unemployment - 16M+ new claims in the last 3 weeks (staggering)

2) Decreased consumer spending as confidence falls off a cliff

3) Longer term structural issues - what does "opening up" look like?

CANNABIS:

Bad news for Harvest (HARV) and Ianthus (IAN)
Good news on Illinois numbers ($188M USD for Q1 Sales)
Aurora (ACB) 12:1 stock split and new ATM facility - what this means
IIPR Short Report - more on this next episode

In this episode we dissect the recent market rally and urge caution that there is much more pain to come

How Deep will COVID go? How long will the lockdown last?
Is it time for investors to be fearful or be greedy?
Reasons why the market is underpricing future risk
Buy/Sell/Hold - what makes sense?
How Alternative Investments fare when the general market corrects
How fundamentals and valuation may change even after COVID passes
Concerns and things to watch in cannabis
Examining Medipharm Lab's Q4 results
Village Farms BRUTAL Q4 Financials
Exercising caution on HEXO

In this episode we delve deeper into the market mayhem that has happened over the last 10 days - things have changed for investors.

How long will the COVID shutdown last?
How deep will this go? How bad will it get?
How should investors change the way they look at the markets (broader markets vs cannabis)
The worst is yet to come - our thesis on how the next few months could play out
Why we are selling and raising cash in anticipation of what's next
Buckle up! Be ready for a longer shutdown than you might think
How cannabis is behaving so far and what to keep an eye on going forward
What will be the best investing opportunities in the coming weeks

PS - please excuse the audio quality; we are recording remotely on our phones!

In this episode we do a 180 on coronavirus and admit how we underestimated the virus and its potential to completely turn our economy and life upside down. We dig into how markets are reacting, how bad it is going to get and how this will ultimately affect broader markets and of course, cannabis investing.

We were 110% wrong - here's what we underestimated
The Shutdown: stopping the virus means pausing our economy and way of life
Mass extinction event now applies to many small business outside of cannabis
How bad is this? How long will it last?
Predictions: How will government support business and households?
Is this a 30 day event? Or a 6 month event? What happens if it goes longer than we think?
How will cannabis behave in a shutdown? Will consumers buy online?
Weed Stocks in a corona era - how will they behave? Who will win?
Should investors open their wallets or proceed with caution

In this episode we explore the irrationality and panic which has pummeled stock markets and absolutely brutalized cannabis markets. We also something of a market update where we discuss news on Canopy, Cresco, Village Farms and the Florida Market.

What happens when there is a panic and a "rush to the exits"
What we are seeing in the market today
Does the market know more than you?
Don't expect the market to act rationally in the short-medium term (eg. VFF settlement)
Several overhangs which will create drag for cannabis investors
Canopy shutting down 2 BC greenhouses
Cresco President abruptly "resigns" (bad sign!)
How bad were Tilray Earnings (hint: really really bad)
Florida House looking to cap THC at 10% for under 21 patients
2 questions to ask yourself before investing in cannabis today

In this episode we talk about the recent pummeling the cannabis markets (along with the broader markets) have taken due to Coronavirus fears. How does this relate to our on-going thesis of a 2008-style cannabis liquidity crisis? What are we buying right now?

What is going on? How Corona is affecting broader markets
Are the fears overblown? What potential risks are there?
How does Corona affect the Cannabis Markets?
What quality names are we buying at "deep value"

In this episode we emphasize the importance of digging into a company's financials for yourself to see if any warning signs are present. It is CRITICAL you are looking at a company's financials (sedar.com)

How we realized there was a "mass extinction" event coming
Why we sounded the alarm bells 30 days ago
Learning from the companies who went broke: DYME as a case study

Warning Signs:

Cash balance rapidly declining
Large losses on income statement (and the importance of gross margins)
Cash Flow Statement vs Income Statement (why this matters)
"Circle The Drain" Financing - equity or debt raises at smaller amounts and worse terms
Lawsuits - Company gets into more lawsuits and disputes as they can't afford to pay their bills

Bonus - Importance of receivables and taxes payable

**Important - take a holistic view of the company. Having one of these items present is not nearly as having several red flags

In this episode we go over mistakes we made in our cannabis investing decisions and how we've improved our game since.

This is especially important as we are seeing investors repeating the same mistakes.

Where did we go wrong? The importance of humility and continual learning
Checking your ego at the door on the way up
Investors are not learning - same mistakes are being repeated
Deals "priced to perfection" - investors not getting paid appropriately for uncertainty
Relying on headlines and "experts" for information (which is inherently biased)
Getting information from online echo chambers of cheerleaders (weak surface level due diligence)
Not actively seeking out negative or contrary opinions
Investing on hype and potential rather than fundamental prospects

Forward Looking: What if Bernie Sanders wins the election? Discussing federal legality

Hello CIN listeners! In this episode we talk about Aurora and other companies who have cut jobs. How do we right the ship? How do we fix the existing mess that we are seeing?

Although we continue to warn investors for the fallout about to occur we also want to explain why we are still actively investing in the cannabis space. In this episode we discuss the major factors which will drive the sector longer-term:

Canada - 2.0 Product Ramp & Ontario Retail Stores (~500 expected by end of 2021)
New Markets - International (Mexico, Israel, EU) + US (New Jersey, New York, Arizona and more)

These two points alone will potentially bring billions of dollars of sales online in the next 2 years!

Rise of CBD and other Compounds (CBN, CBG, and more to come)
Potential for Bio Synthetic Cannabinoids

It's important to keep a longer-term focus as it takes time to build real businesses and have new programs roll-out.

In this fun episode we talk about what we've seen in Toronto for Cannabis 2.0 Products.

Some topics we cover:

The Rollout of 2.0 Products
Types of products we've seen
Which products are selling the best
Concerns for the future
Some of the best products we've seen so far

In this week's episode we digest our warning from last week and discuss some issues which have come to the surface. Many of these are warning lights flashing for weed investors to exercise caution:

How we got here: people are not paying attention
BMO issues an optimistic Price Target on Canopy for $40 CAD. Why this matters (and why they're wrong)
Discussing Medipharm's $9.8M CAD statement of claim against HEXO
Are we wrong? Is the negativity in the space already "priced in"?
Where are we now: Hot Air Balloon Metaphor
Should companies just stay private instead?
Promo companies not promoting - what that means
Long-term bullish: Why the winning companies will benefit from all this

In this episode we discuss several types of bias we see in ourselves and other cannabis investors. The ultimate goal is to understand patterns of thought and adjusting to make better investing decisions.

Understanding your own bias from your investing background
Dissociating your political opinions from business reality
Avoiding group think and online echo chambers
Be careful of confirmation bias and avoiding negative information

In this episode we lay out a serious warning to our network about the potential for an impending capital & liquidity crisis for the cannabis sector in 2020.

Companies are rapidly burning cash and financing is very tough to secure. Many companies (especially smaller ones) are running out of runway faster than you might think. Why is no one talking about it?

What is going on?
Fundamentals vs Capital Markets
How bad is it? (hint: pretty damn bad)
Predicting what happens next
How to protect yourself as an investor
Survivors will be long term winners
Medium-Long term very bullish on the cannabis space but have to pick your spots accordingly
What to look for in all of your holdings to evaluate your own risk
Are we wrong? Thoughts on things we may have missed

**Do you agree or disagree? We'd love to hear your thoughts - CINpodcast@gmail.com

In this episode we make some predictions for what is to come in 2020 for cannabis investing. In this episode:

1. "The Great Divide" - Winners & Losers Emerge

Mentality will shift: sector will stop moving as one and winners will emerge
Shifting from ETF mentality to stock picking (from passive to active)
Example: Trulieve should separate from the pack given their isolation in Florida and strong financial performance
Losers will lose HARD while winners will distinguish themselves

2. Predicting Sales for Canada in 2020

The $3B sales bet...under or over?
Major catalyst for 2020 sales with Cannabis 2.0 and Ontario store increases
Will be a slow rollout for both, so the ramp will be gradual
Many unknowns still to be seen (like how Beverages sell)
Still a short list of winners in Canada who will be in a better position in 2021

3. The US & Canada - The Separation Begins

US will begin to outperform Canada
Illinois and Michigan will prove to be very strong markets with a strong ramp in 2020 but will really shine in 2021
Data and results will drive investors to invest in the US in 2020
280E Taxation remains the biggest issue US operators will face
Big States which may go Rec: Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Arizona (I mentioned Florida but their initiative is now dead)
New Jersey seems the most likely and represents a very lucrative market ("Florida 2.0")
Mexico story looks promising, Europe story is less attractive
CORRECTION: MediPharm did NOT get their EU GMP certification yet, they got their Australian GMP

4. Rough Patch Ahead - Be Careful!

Capital crunch has turned into a capital crisis - very difficult to raise funds
Very few companies have gone under despite being very close to it
Circle the Drain Financing: Desperate companies will take crappy deals to try to save the ship
Some companies will turn it around, others won't
Bankruptcies will cause a domino effect and pull many others down with it
Ramp up of sales in Canada will be slow and won't be fully realized until H2 2021
The general cannabis market will get punished as this occurs
There is no bottom for crappy companies! Some will go to zero! Especially those low on cash and burning fast
The companies who survive will come out stronger and better positioned

5. M&A From Unlikely Sources

Companies will look to merge to survive...but cash is king!
Potential for non-cannabis companies with cash on balance sheet combining with struggling cannabis companies

6. Up & Downs Continue

Things will not go straight up or down. Volatility will continue
FOMO is dead. Be patient, be picky and take profits!
No federal legalization in US in 2020 but 2-3 major states to go rec

QUESTION: What are your predictions? Email us!

Happy New Year! In this market update we cover the good and bad for the start of 2020!

2020 will be a year of Strong Catalysts driven by Fundamental Growth
There will also be significant headwinds to navigate

Illinois Goes Full Rec:

Banner first day with $3.3M USD sales + $2.2M on 2nd day
$11M USD of sales in 5 days (with customers paying $20 USD/gram of flower)
Illinois will be a great market in 2020 and 2021, with a strong sales ramp and limited licenses

Ontario Retail:

45 dispensaries to open in Ontario Q1-Q2 (licenses were granted last year)
160 new retail licenses in 2020 in Ontario (~225 granted by end of 2020 and ~475 by end of 2021)
This will greatly help ramp Canadian sales in 2020 and 2021

Cannabis 2.0 Launches in Canada:

2.0 products shipping this week to retail and online next week (in Ontario)
These High Margin products will greatly drive sales for the entire industry
Very limited supply of products initially with many more to roll out over next 6 months
Will be similar to flower – under supply then over supply
We debate the strict marketing rules and how fast companies should be moving

Vaping Bans:

Quebec banning vapes and raising age to 21

Alberta delaying vapes until spring (at least)

US News:

Debt Deals for Curaleaf ($275M USD) + Harvest ($73M USD)

Curaleaf - $275M USD debt deals // Harvest - $90M USD debt deal

Trulieve Short Report

Florida – Rec vote not looking good, suing for more time (flower got approved by lawsuit)

See full Florida point-by-point rebuttal here: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

If you are not changing the way you invest going into 2020 you are in trouble!

In this end of the year episode we recap the top 5 lessons learned for Cannabis Investing.

1 - No Excuses, Play Like A Champion

Every investor is the CEO of their own account
Take full responsibility for your own results and learn from your mistakes
"It's not your fault but it is your problem"

2 - LEARN LEARN LEARN & Pay Attention

The importance of investing time and energy into learning this space
Continually evolving your thinking in this fast moving environment
Building a network of trustworthy investors to bounce ideas off of

3 - Investing vs Trading in Cannabis

Shifting away from the negative stigma of Trading
Learning what can affect short term movements of a stock
Marrying the best of both worlds to find the strategy that works best for you

4 - Read Data NOT Headlines

Importance of reading past the headlines
Acknowledge your weaknesses and improve upon them - especially if they are financial related
Future will be financial and results based - make sure you are analyzing for yourself!
Good data is like a crystal ball
Beware paid and biased information sources (including investment banks)

5 - Quality over Quantity

Shifting from a broad portfolio of shiny companies to a consolidated list of winners
Willing to make lower profits in favour of lower risk
Getting paid for taking risk on earlier stage names
Running sensitivity on valuations to see what the margin for error is

CLOSING - NOMO FOMO

This business is extremely capital intensive, even the best companies will need to keep raising
Investors will have chances to buy into these companies along the way as equity raises will be needed
Keep evolving your mindset into 2020 and beyond!

Please note: This episode was recorded before the Trulieve short report came out. Our detailed breakdown of the Trulieve report here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

Next Episode: Top Predictions for 2020

In this episode we talk about how we kick the tires on potential private investments.

How we evaluate potential private deals
Mentality behind venture investing
Potential Red Flags & Deal Killers
Personal Frameworks for Evaluating Private Deals

Next Week: Stay tuned for fresh episodes on 2020 predictions and top picks!

In this episode we explore 4 common overhangs which can weigh on Cannabis Stocks. Most of these things are unique to small cap and venture investing.

Overhang: Factor which negatively impacts a stock (typically short to medium term)
How this helps answer "Is This the Right Time to Buy"?
Cap Table / Share Structure
Understanding the importance of the cap table
Why previous rounds of financing matter and the "Game Theory" involved
How warrants and cheap paper can drag on a stock
Share Unlocks
Unlocks can create a huge overhang, real or perceived
How Mergers & Acquisitions create large unlocks
Resource for US MSO unlocks: https://www.statesidecannabisinvestors.com/calendar
Timing
Examining two low volume seasons: Summer & Tax-Loss Period
Debating if timing matters for fundamental investors
Capital Raises
Why capital raises drop the share price
Why capital raising is actually not a bad thing in the long-run
What to look out for (straight equity vs debt vs warrant coverage)
How to Predict a Future Capital Raise

**Note: Episode was recorded prior to MedMen/Pharmacann being called off (but the concept still applies)

In this episode we examine an article titled "The Cannabis Bubble has Burst". Were we in a bubble? What is a bubble? What does this mean for cannabis investors?

The definition of an investment bubble (valuations vs fundamentals)
Why it's so difficult to identify a bubble
The 5 Stages of a Bubble: Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, Selling & Panic
Displacement: How it starts
Boom: Quick money being made and momentum builds
Euphoria: FOMO is king and the investment goes mainstream
Selling: Sophisticated Capital exits
Panic: The Sell-Off deepends and the bubble bursts
Mistaking luck and risk-taking behaviour for genius
Is Cannabis A Bubble? Why or Why Not?
How US Operators will drive fundamental value over time
How strong operators will dominate the market in a capital crunch

In this episode we dive into the world of Sale Leaseback transactions. We are seeing this pop up more and more as the capital crunch gets worse.

What are Sale Leasebacks?
How do they work?
What's special about Cannabis related Leasebacks?
Why are we hearing so much about these kind of deals?
Who is Innovative Industrial REIT (IIPR) and how important are they to the industry?
Would Manish buy IIPR or another Cannabis REIT today? Why or Why Not?

What happens next for Cannabis stocks? Will the market bounce back to new highs or is there more pain in sight?

Short Term Trading vs Long Term Investing
Yes and No: Why some companies will surge and some will fail
Sector wide sell-off hurts everyone
Winners starting to bounce back and differentiate themselves
Why many companies will fail going forward
How did we get here? Pre Legalization hype based investing
Old Method: Using "Funded Capacity" and Lofty Projections
Today: Matured to Show Me instead of Tell
Examining Revenue vs Margins vs Earnings vs Cashflow
Using Origin House as an example - selling off companies that don't smell like Winners
Balancing Revenue Growth with Burning Cash
How do we find winners? What to look for (cash, margins, earning potential, market, business type)
Cash and Cashflow and Capital Markets are KING
How to Play the Volatility in the Sector (trading vs investing)
Future Catalysts and Landmines

In this episode we explore the pains and issues Canada is having.

What are the core problems? What are the solutions? Will these problems be solved? When?

Forecasting the Canadian Weed Stocks going forward (how to play the volatility)
The Good News: Many of the problems are fixable and will eventually be solved
The Bad News: We are 12-24 months away from any earnings relief. Many companies won't survive
Explaining today's issues in terms of Supply & Demand
Companies are missing revenue guidance (HEXO, OGI, Canopy, etc)
Large build-up of inventory in the system (exploring the numbers)
3 Core Problems: Retail, Marketing and Distribution

Retail: Ontario is far lagging behind and needs 20x the retail stores

Why this problem might get solved and how long it will take
Why private owned retail is SO important

Marketing: Why the strict rules are hurting the system

Why retail can help solve this problem

Distribution: Government playing middle-man causing huge issues

This may change in Ontario but unlikely to in Quebec

Picking Winners: What to look for in companies that can weather the storm

Conclusion: How investors should act going forward knowing what is coming next

In this episode we explore Maneesh's thesis that Florida is the best cannabis market we've seen so far. Here's why:

The 3 levels of cannabis legality - which is the best for investors?
Why is every big company focusing on Florida? Profitability
Trulieve leads the industry in EBITDA margins and Earnings
What makes Florida such a profitable market?
Overview of Florida's rules and set-up
Vertical Integration: Forcing full Seed to Sale
Cultivation > Extraction > Processing > Distribution > Retail
Barriers to Entry - the impact of strict Vertical Integration
Why it is harder than people think to scale in Florida
Capturing high profit margins: what makes a business attractive
Transparency: OMMU data lets us see weekly sales
Rapid Growth: 170K to 300K patients in a single year
Doubling of product sold + flower introduced in 2019
Full Rec: Legalize It Florida vs Regulate Florida
Will Michigan or Illinois surpass Florida in 2020?

We're back! In this PACKED market update we cover:

Whatever happened to that vaping "crisis"?

Some positive news for Canada for once!

Cannabis Council write an Open Letter to Doug Ford
Ford Government responds quickly - signalling very positive news for Ontario and Canada
The 3 changes the Ford government is promising and why it might save the cannabis market
BUT be careful...they still haven't specified any concrete timelines
Discussing the building of inventory in the system and the risk this poses; How does this get resolved?
The Drake / More Life Growth Deal
What this means and why Manish thinks it's so important (beyond his Drake man-crush)
LABS applies for NASDAQ listing
Trulieve raises $60M USD at good terms
Zenabis seeks to raise $20M CAD at brutal terms
Upcoming earnings: LABS, WEED, VFF, TRUL & GTI
When the earnings release what to look for

In this episode we deviate from our usual mantra of "buy companies not stocks" and talk about why it is important to be a good stock and what makes a good stock.

How do companies capture investor attention and get love from the capital markets? We differentiate between being a fundamentally good long term investment and being a good stock that captures the attention of investors.

This is an episode we recorded in the summer after visiting Detroit for a conference.

We give an overview of the Michigan market and why we think it will be one investors should pay close attention to.

The revitalization of Detroit since 2008
The 6 main types of licenses (similar to California's model):

1) Cultivation

2) Processing / Extraction / Manufacturing

3) Retail / Dispensary

4) Secure Transport (stand alone)

5) Lab Testing (stand alone)

6) Micro-Grow

How Michigan compares to Florida in terms of patient count
Why Michigan is actually a tourist destination
Why Michigan will be a smoother roll-out than Ontario
X-Factor: Michigan's Black Market
Future Predictions for the Michigan Market

This was a fun one!

In this episode we talk about our favourite new products we've seen or tried.

Most of these products are from California and give us a hint of what's to come in other markets.

1) HEXO CBD Peppermint Spray - https://ocs.ca/products/elixir-cbd-peppermint-oil-oral-spray-hexo (Canada only)

2) THC & CBD Infused Bath Bomb - https://myjane.com/ (California subscription service)

3) Atlas Edibles Raspberry Hibiscus Beverage Mix - http://atlasedibles.com/raspberry-hibiscus/ (California only)

4) CBD lined Eye Mask - https://myjane.com/ (California subscription service)

5) Dosist Vape Pen - https://dosist.com/

6) Foria Sexual Wellness - https://foriapleasure.com/pages/home

What's the coolest product you've seen or tired? Let us know - CINpodcast@gmail.com

In this episode we explore the July 2019 sales data for Canada and compare it to sales numbers for mature US markets

How Canada compares to Colorado, Washington and Oregon (mature markets)
How other emerging markets like California and Nevada compare
We breakdown how sales are doing and what future sales might look like
Lastly we derive future potential valuations from both conservative and aggressive projections
How do the current market valuations compare to future potential?
Where is there more opportunity for investors?

Ultimate Resource for US Data: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/d2txuf/us_statebystate_cannabis_industry_data_sources/

**Footnote: The Canada data is based on July 2019 sales data

In This Market Update:

Valens Grow releases excellent earnings. What this means for the extraction sector
How does Valens compare to Medipharm Labs?
Auxly proposes an interesting solution to $100M of upcoming debt
How this will impact Aurora's upcoming $230M (March 2020)
Origin House - HSR Date passes with no announcement...what's going on?
Cannabis 2.0 officially kicks off with good marketing
Ontario looking at reforming it's distribution model
Nevada freezes all license transfers

In this episode we discuss the new reality of the Cannabis Market - corrected values and the end of easy money

1) The Correction -- How did we get here?

Natural transition from a hype-driven to a results-driven environment
Using real estate developments as an example (selling the sizzle vs the steak)
How the overall sales numbers are WAY off the projections ($4.6B vs $1B)

2) What is Easy Money?

Lack of due diligence; "sizzle" driven investing
Emotion driven investing style
Focus on upside instead of risk mitigation (Greed > Fear)

3) The Effects of Easy Money

Asset prices / Company Valuations start to rise rapidly
How this has happened in Real Estate since 2008
Attracting shady players ("promotes")
Speculative behaviour of investors chasing comparable gains

4) What Next? What does this mean for investors?

Resetting values can be attractive for investors
"Cashed up" players can take advantage of this downturn through M&A
Investors need to pay closer attention to margins: gross and net
Cash and Cashflow are extremely important
Focus on companies who have a proven ability to execute and make money
How a failing company can create an investing opportunity in a winning company

Bonus: Manish and Abi make a $3 Billion Dollar Bet for 2020

We are at a critical juncture in Cannabis:

There is a structural shift to evaluating companies on fundamentals and cash burn
Bad News: Medmen and Pharmacann cancel proposed merger
Who got a better deal? And Medmen's CFO getting fired
How this might impact Origin House / Cresco Labs
More Bad News: HEXO misses revenue and CFO gets fired (note the pattern)
HEXO drops hard in price - is it valued fairly?
Even More Bad News: Village Farms raises $25M at half the value from a few months ago
How we should have seen this coming
What this says about the market and about VFF (good and bad)
Good News! Mitch McConnell (senate leader) visits California and meets with Cannabis companies
This bodes well for the SAFE Banking Act vote (but still uncertain)
Good News: MediPharm Labs gets an increased bank facility at reasonable rates

In this episode we examine how the Canadian market has evolved over the past few years. We explore each part of the value chain - Cultivation, Brands, Processing and Retail and see if Canada is losing ground to other countries.

In this episode we go through the mechanics of how and why Weed Companies raise capital. This is especially important in today's environment when companies may be forced to suffer significant dilution if they can't raise on favourable terms.

We use a theoretical company ABC ("Always Be Cultivating") and explore how they might approach investors at each stage of their business.

See how a company progresses from Seed Funding to Series A to IPO/RTO and beyond. We discuss what investors should look for and what questions to ask.

In this Market Update we discuss how we are right in the middle of a perfect storm of negativity and uncertainty:

How we got here (CannTrust > Recession Fears > Canopy Earnings > Vapegate)
Why the Vape Issue is really a Black Market Problem
How Vaping should be solved and the unfortunate knee jerk reaction
Emergency Financing: Why Prices Dropped 20-30% in the last week
KushCo (KSHB) Raises $30M USD at a steep discount
Ianthus (IAN) Raises $20M USD from Gotham Green on a 13% convertible note
What happened to Harvest's (HARV) $225M USD Debt Financing? (Torian Capital deal explained)
Data: How much have Vape Sales declined? Less than you might think...
How much of this is priced in already? Is this Sentiment or True Risk?
Closing: What Stocks Manish Sold and Why
Selling: Medmen/CVSI/IAN/HARV/KHSB
Booking Tax Loss consideration ahead of others (risks and reward of this)
What to look for Going Forward (important of cash and cash flow)

We are back with a PACKED Market Update:

1) Breaking down the HISTORIC passage of the SAFE Banking Act (by the House)

How it happened and Why it matters
The road ahead (goes through the Senate)
Benefits of the SAFE Banking Act
Why Traditional Bank Financing would be a huge positive for US Cannabis companies

2) Exploring the Vaping Health Epidemic (is it really an epidemic?)

350 cases with 8 deaths so
How bad is this? How aware is the general public?
What's the cause? Vitamin E Acetate? The Black Market?
How much should investors care? Is this just a blip?
How simple and negative news can spread far and wide
Why Vaping is so important to Cannabis Companies
Massachusetts' 4 month ban on ALL vaping products (who's next?)

3) Pennsylvania and the Tri-State Area (NY/NJ/CT) Going Full Rec

4 neighboring states all looking to go rec in short order
Why New York wants the other states to share the same rules
PA = 21M people; NY = 19.5M
All 4 States = 53M people (1.5x Canada!!)

4) CIBC says Canada Sales Estimates are WAY too High

$6.5B of 2020 Sales reduced to $2.2B (1/3rd of original)
$7.5B of 2021 Sales reduced to $3.3B (44% of original)
People online bashing CIBC over this. Are they right?
Are these numbers accurate? Let's compare to real numbers
What this means for the Canadian market
US sales vs Canadian sales

Closing Thought: Long-term focus and being patient

This is a 3-5 year investment play!
Don't get caught focusing on the ups and downs

In this episode Abi discusses his recent California trip and how complicated distribution in the Golden State is. We compare Canada to California and talk about the fragmentation of the market.

NOTE / WARNING - THIS EPISODE IS VERY OUTDATED.

Yes, even though it's not that old our views on this topic shift very quickly and there's some companies on here you should avoid

There are several companies in this episode we no longer like including Harvest, Medmen, Ianthus and CV Sciences.

We're keeping this episode up but want to give you fair warning to be careful on cannabis investing information as it constantly changes!

The Medmen/Pharmacann acquisition passing DOJ regulatory hurdle is BIG news. Here's why:

What is the DOJ 2nd Request Process?
Why this is SO important to US Cannabis stocks?
Which MSOs will benefit from this announcement?
What this means going forward for US Weed Stocks?
Are investors fully appreciating how important this is?
How is the weed market performing since the August lows?
Which weed stocks will benefit from this?
Update on the Origin House trade

Mapping out the supply chain from start to finish
How the supply chain varies in the US vs Canada
Why it's important for investors to understand the supply chain
Specialization vs Vertical Integration
LPs / Cultivators: Issues they will face going forward
Exraction / Processing: Why we are bullish for the future
Distribution: Canada vs US
Retail & Dispensaries: Vegas vs Toronto

In this episode we cover investing basics:

What is an index (eg. TSX, Dow Jones, S&P 500)?
ETF: Basket of stocks typically reflecting a particular sector
Be careful with ETFs and HMMJ
Hedge Funds vs Mutual Funds
Actively Managed vs Passively Managed Funds
Management Expense Ratio (MER)
Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio
Value vs Growth: Low P/E vs High P/E stocks
Picking a P/E multiplier - Why its so important
Trailing P/E vs Forward P/E
Defining EV and EBITDA
EV: Market Cap - Cash + Debt
EBITDA: Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization
EV / EBITDA Ratio - what it is and why it's important
EV/EBITDA vs P/E Ratios - taking debt into consideration

In This Episode:

"Creating Value is not enough..." - Peter Thiel
4 Reasons Why A Good Product may do poorly as an investment
1) Being out of favour with the capital markets / institutional capital
2) The company can be overvalued, even if the prodcut is good
3) Company Profit and Share Price don't always move together
4) A weak and expanding Cap Table can cause issues
Relating cannabis companies to your favourite restaurant

In this episode:

What is FOMO and why does it matter
How Manish got FOMO from the Raptors Championship
Is FOMO Unique to Millennials?
Fear vs Greed: Which is more powerful?
Equities vs Fixed Income
Shifting investor mindset to longterm value
What we could learn from Bitcoin
Why Cannabis is different than Bitcoin
What happens when markets are moving up & moving down
Creating Systems which allow you to make good investing decisions

In this market update:

How's the Marijuana Stock Index doing?
Broad Strokes: What caused a heavy downturn
Starting with CannTrust non-compliance
US DOJ Anti-trust concerns delaying mergers
Fed rate cute; Broader market sell-off
Some good news from Medipharm, Cresco, Trulieve and general US progress
Are we heading into a recession?
How Canopy Growth headlines overshadowed everyone
Why Canopy didn't really lose $1.2B in one quarter
Why Manish is buying Village Farms (VFF)
How large Canadian LPs will compete globally
What companies to buy if we're heading into a recession
How would cannabis behave in a recession?

In this episode we debate buying your weed from a dispensary: here to last or just a fad?

The argument for why consumers will buy weed online instead of in person
Why dispensaries are important in capturing consumers
How dispensaries act as a bridge between black market and mainstream
Do people enjoy the dispensary retail experience? Will they continue to visit once the initial fad fades?
How important is the budtender?
Will consumers trust the dispensary? Or will they rely on online and word of mouth
Lessons learned from Planet13's location in Vegas
How dispensaries will be invaluable to cannabis brands

Deepdive on Valuations:

Valuation = Earnings x Earnings Multiplier (AKA PE)
Choosing an Earnings Multiplier
Thinking about Risk
Risk in real estate vs in stocks
Risk free rate
Interest Rates are like gravity in the investing world
Why Abi looks at the cap table/valuation first
Using comparables to judge relative valuation
Valuations of Canadian Companies vs US Companies

In this Market Update:

Turmoil in the broader equity markets
US 10 year treasury hits 1.6% - why that matters
Flight to Safety (and out of Cannabis)
Are we heading into a recession?
Recessions vs Bear Markets
What does that mean for businesses and investors?
What does that mean for Cannabis Investing?
How Big Cannabis Players can dominate in a recession
Silver Lining: How Cannabis could outperform in a recession
Catch us at the Benzinga Conference in Detroit this week!

The fundamentals of investing in Cannabis companies
Buying a company vs buying a stock
Evaluating a company's valuation; why Abi reads the Cap Table FIRST
Importance of patience and long term focus
Risks involved in venture investing
The art of a picking a winner

Next episode: Buy companies not stocks

PACKED market update including:

Huge earnings from Aphria and why you should dig deeper into the revenue breakdown
Strategic investments from Couche-Tard & Imperial Brands (for Fire & Flower and Auxly)
Curaleaf's CVS deal gets pulled after FDA warning letter
Is Manish buying or selling Curaleaf?
More CannTrust drama
Beyond Meat raising $650M USD and why it matters
How Beyond Meat's business strategy relates to Cannabis

Next episode: How to invest in weed stocks 101

Has the market bottomed?

After a few brutal weeks we examine values in the market:

What caused this recent drop in prices?
What's the difference between a blip and a correction?
How CannTrust caused the entire market to fall irrationally
What's next for CannTrust?
Are market values attractive at these numbers?
The strategy of buying companies around the problematic companies (like HomeTrust)
Managing cash for situations like these

Market Update:

- Curaleaf buys Grassroots for ~$875M USD deal

Neptune closes $41.5M USD raise
Flower withdraws a $125M offering (indicates investor hesitation) (this was later turned into a $43M bought deal)

Activity:

What Manish has done during this downturn
The Origin House arbitrage opportunity

The intro episode! Welcome to the Cannabis Investing Network, a podcast created For Investors By Investors. Our focus is squarely on the public and private cannabis markets.

In this episode:

Manish's background in Commercial Real Estate
Abi's background in Fixed Income
How we both ended up investing in the Cannabis Space
Our first ever investments and what we learned
Is it too late to start investing in this space? Is all the easy money gone?
Where the market is and where is it heading
Canada vs US vs International focus
Cultivation vs Extraction vs Brands

Next week's episode - Investing in Weed Companies 101

This mini-episode covers the state of the market as we currently see it (July 2019).

CannTrust issues have pulled down the entire cannabis market
Take a deep breath and remember investing is for the long-term
Valuation = Earnings x Multiple; has other of these variables changed?
Should you be adjusting your investment strategy?
Why it is so important to research and understand the companies you buy into
Market pullbacks mean your favourite companies are on sale
Don't panic, act rationally and think long-term

Our first official episode "How to Invest in Weed Companies 101" coming soon!

Manish & Abi

Comments, feedback, suggestions - CINpodcast@gmail.com