Eye On The Market: Recent Episodes
Michael Cembalest
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go public and some market technicals related to AI.
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Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence
Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets. In this special issue we look at the details: US reserve currency status, capital flows, the much anticipated but still unprofitable “Sell America” trade, US corporate profitability and productivity in the age of AI, investing in Security & Resilience, equity market concentration, energy independence and the revival of the US IPO market. The biggest medium-term concerns for investors in US assets, other than the sustainability of the US Federal debt and cyclical inflationary pressures: the increased unpredictability in the rule of law, and government defunding of science and sidelining of scientific expertise.
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The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets.
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Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update
Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice.
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Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military officers, and a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream.
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Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid.
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In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits.
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On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.
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While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated content and the increasing democratization of text-to-video tools used to create it, the value of the legacy content moat in film/tv libraries and the best movies of the 21st century (as ranked by me).
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Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender balance of psychiatric medication.
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In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has been supporting US equity markets since 2011; and pictures from Chilliwack, Canada.
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Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives.
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Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.
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Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past.
Explore our insights
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different?
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A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.
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With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.
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Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage.
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Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
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Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.
While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate with more of the former than the latter. The only surprise is that it’s happening before 50 days has passed since the inauguration.
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Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.
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From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones
Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.
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Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.
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Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.
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I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
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A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
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Candidate policy comparisons in an historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude with analysis of the China stimulus package, which might have a better chance of succeeding than recent failed efforts.
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
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A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for distressed office investors. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
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From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
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The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sport betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
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With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
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Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election.
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This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage.
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Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
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This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
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A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien
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Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
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A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
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Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
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Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
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I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment.
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Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
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Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now.
The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans.
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins
Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule
In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.
Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else
Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force
Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry
Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one
Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?
The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.
We continue with three topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users, the transmission quagmire and bans on combustion of fossil fuels for heating in favor of electric heat pumps
We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration
Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin
The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inherently slow moving, particularly when citizens of countries adopting them erect NIMBY barriers along the way (a topic we cover in this year’s forthcoming energy paper). As we have discussed often, capital spending by the world’s largest energy companies has fallen 75% from peak levels while global demand for oil, gas and coal are all at or above pre-COVID levels. Countries that reduced their supply of thermal energy at a much faster pace than they reduced their demand are paying a very stiff price for that right now. We expect some about-face movements on this in the days ahead.
Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.
Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers
On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.
Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.
“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlenecks will dissipate, the US will still face tight labor markets and rising wages that are at odds with current Fed policy
The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022
Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data
Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nuclear power, hydrogen and carbon accounting.
Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.
If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.
Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.
In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy policies (ban on new oil & gas leases on Federal lands, Keystone XL pipeline termination and conversion of Federal fleet to EVs) will probably end up increasing US oil & gas imports more than they reduce emissions.
Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.
Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.
The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.
The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6th.
For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance).
The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General.
US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on science.
US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.
US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.
While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.
Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.
Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.
An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.
Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due to the erosion of covenants.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Trump has been telling us who he is all along; I should have listened. A story in pictures. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks. While we expect US GDP and profits to continue to rise in 2019, unresolved trade issues, slowing global growth and a move by the Trump administration away from its 2017 market-friendly policies are likely to cap a post-correction rebound. All things considered, it looks like a volatile, positive single-digit year for diversified portfolios in 2019.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In this Eye on the Market, Michael provides an update on the credit risk of US states based on their unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations. Please see the podcast video or visit jpmorgan.com/eotm for the slide referenced.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market: America, First. Michael reviews the strength of US equity markets so far this year in the context of fading fiscal and monetary stimulus, signs of fatigue in US tech stocks and potential ramifications of constitutional and trade concerns. Other topics include current dynamics in Italy and the US commercial real estate market.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The song remains the same. Michael reviews current market dynamics, walks through four investment strategies that have performed well over multiple cycles as this one enters its latter stages, and shares his thoughts on the Helsinki summit.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In this episode, Michael Cembalest takes a look at the recent tariff announcements in the context of historical tariffs since 1900. While the tariffs are substantial for the industries affected, Michael explains why they may not move the needle for overall consumer prices or corporate profits. Please see the podcast video or visit jpmorgan.com/eotm for the slide referenced.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market. Topics include the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable given the greater economic linkages between the US and China compared to adversaries of the last 100 years. Also, some thoughts on emerging markets, Turkey and serial defaulter Argentina.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs. Legal precedent shows that bondholder losses exceed pensioner write-downs. Given complacent conditions in credit markets, this is a good time to review muni diversification. Read more: jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320745513818.pdf
*Please note this PDF is publicly available and issued through our Private Bank business.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The Late Show. He considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018. He tackles the drivers of somewhat muted equity returns by focusing on late-cycle investing, the Fed, and the factors affecting the path of interest rates (labor markets and the expanding budget deficit). Michael also discusses his views on the oil price recovery since 2016.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest discusses his annual energy paper, Pascal’s Wager, the argument that belief makes more sense than disbelief when the worst outcome is a total loss. He tackles the reality behind climate goals & decarbonization, electric vehicles, academics’ view on the renewable energy future, & a twist on the US Electoral College. Michael is joined by Matt LeBlanc, CIO of JP Morgan Asset Management’s Infrastructure Group.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Michael Cembalest explores ways in which the current administration could negatively impact financial markets in the midst of an environment of generally rising growth, profits and capital spending with guest speaker, Jack Bartling, an international affairs specialist.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.