SL Advisors Talks Markets: Recent Episodes
SL Advisors, LLC
Simon Lack and Henry Hoffman of SL Advisors consider inflation risks to investors and how to respond.
Energy Transfer (ET) is the name most widely owned among those financial advisors we know with direct investments in the sector. It is perennially cheap, and it’s a frequent topic of conversation. It’s also a significant position of ours, so it was especially pleasing to see their strong second quarter earnings. As well as beating […]
By 2035 the demand for US natural gas will reach 163 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D) according to Wells Fargo, an increase of half from last year. The twin drivers of this will be power generation whose natural gas consumption will rise from 36 BCF/D to 61 BCF/D, and exports, mostly Liquefied Natural Gas […]
The 75th edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy contains all the data a student of global energy could need. If you need to know Latvia’s solar power generation over the past couple of years (1.4 Terrawatt Hours and 2.0 respectively), this is the place to look. Last year the world produced 600 Exajoules […]
Since the Iran War began at the end of February, the price of European LNG and a composite of three US LNG exporters (Cheniere, Venture Global and NextDecade) have tracked each other fairly reliably. At the outbreak of hostilities, LNG investors were slow to realize the opportunity, but after a month of conflict both were […]
We’ve been providing sector updates to a number of clients recently. Midstream had a good 1Q but stalled during 2Q. The resumption of hostilities last week pushed stocks higher, but even without that we think valuations remain attractive. Enterprise Value/EBITDA at 11.1X is close to the ten-year average, a period which includes the 2020 pandemic […]
Around this time of year people ask me if we Brits celebrate July 4th. I have devised a variety of ripostes to this friendly goading. School history classes never even reached 1776 – interminable hours were dedicated to prior centuries. Perhaps English historians concluded nothing much important happened 250 years ago… Of course, we do […]
Apparently, the senior executives of Exxon and Chevron weren’t the only ones worried about inadequate oil inventories causing prices to spike (see Is Crude At A Tipping Point?). The White House heard the message, and ships are once again moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz. The world is suddenly awash with oil, which by […]
Last week we were in Tampa and Orlando meeting with investors. It’s always a pleasure to see clients that have been with us for several years, because they’ve invariably had a positive experience. On the drive from Tampa to Orlando on I-4 we passed the exit for DisneyWorld, although sadly didn’t have time on this […]
Crude oil has so far not reached the heights expected by industry insiders, including senior executives at Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The reasons include China’s decision to stop building its inventories, which reduced demand by 3-4 Million Barrels per Day (MMB/D). Their high penetration of EVs has supported a shifting from gasoline to coal as […]
It has struck us for some time that crude prices continue to reflect an overly optimistic view about when normal shipping will resume in the Strait of Hormuz. There is no acceptable military solution available to the US. The Iranian threat will stop when Iran so decides. Nonetheless, every positive social media utterance from President […]
Although drivers are feeling it at the pump, crude oil prices and therefore gasoline have so far not approached the most dire predictions. We’re enduring the worst supply disruption in history in terms of volume, with an estimated 500 million barrels having been drawn down from global stockpiles. Moreover, it’s become apparent that Iran’s asymmetric […]
Last week SL Advisors partner Henry Hoffman was at the Annual Energy Infrastructure (EIC) CEO and Investor Conference in Ventura, FL. Such events provide an opportunity to meet the executives of the companies we’re invested in. It’s important to avoid being too sold on their prospects – especially now when we have a constructive outlook on the sector. So, Henry brought a jaundiced eye and detailed questions to […]
Last week’s inflation print supported the value of midstream energy in a portfolio for preservation of purchasing power. We’ve noted this recently (see A Healthy Correction last paragraph). The most recent 3.8% CPI reading is driving longer term inflation expectations higher. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh has his work cut out for him satisfying both […]
1Q earnings have been coming in to heightened expectations following strong equity performance so far this year. Energy Transfer (ET), Targa Resources (TRGP) and Cheniere (CEI) all beat median Street EBITDA forecasts and raised full year guidance. AI-driven demand for natural gas to power data centers remains an important theme. ET has described the volume […]
We’ve felt for several weeks that financial markets were too optimistic in expecting a rapid re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz (see Calmer But Not Resolved and A Healthy Correction). Commercial shipping can only resume once the threat of Iranian attacks is resolved, an achievement we felt was beyond the ability of military action short […]
We spent last week traveling in Austria with friends. The impact of the Iran War felt closer – and not just because an Iranian missile could theoretically hit Vienna. This part of the world is highly energy dependent. They rely on imports for just over half of their primary energy, and about the same share […]
In Wealth, War and Wisdom (2008), Barton Biggs showed how financial markets often react with greater insight into the shifting fortunes of war than the general population. During World War II for example, German stocks peaked in 1941, well before the military disaster at Stalingrad. The US market rallied following the Battle of Midway in […]
Normally I regard a “healthy correction” after a long rally as the description of those uninvolved. There’s nothing healthy about a market drop for the longs, regardless of if it was preceded by an extended rally, as is the case for energy this year. A sell-off under any circumstances is only good for shorts and […]
LNG export terminals usually have the ability to export more than their nameplate capacity. This is how we exported a record 18.8 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day (BCF/D) of natural gas in March, compared with FERC’s estimated sustainable limit of 14.6-15 BCF/D. Venture Global’s (VG) Plaquemines facility was the strongest at exceeding stated capacity. Cheniere’s […]
The disruption of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports from Qatar has a short term and long term consequence. As spot benchmark prices rose in Europe and Asia, traders focused on the near-term profit opportunity. LNG export terminals contract most of their capacity for long periods (10-20 years) to reduce their exposure to gas prices. Of […]
Trump 1.0 was not kind to energy investors. Although the sector welcomed his pro-energy regulatory approach, it came with a desire for low oil prices. Covid was the final straw as lockdowns forced everyone to stay at home, crushing oil demand and briefly sending crude prices negative. The American Energy Infrastructure Index (AEITR) delivered –6.2% […]
It’s not easy to make the Persian Gulf safe for commercial shipping. On Wednesday a Thai vessel was hit by three “unidentified projectiles” near the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire. Several other vessels were hit towards the end of the week. In total 22 civilian ships have been hit in the Persian Gulf since […]
The negative correlation between energy and the stock market that we highlighted last Sunday (see AI Moves The Energy Sector) continued last week, unsurprisingly given the news. We had thought global natural gas markets were more vulnerable than crude oil to conflict, and this turned out to be true. Qatar represents only 20% of global […]
Forty years ago, when I was trading eurodollar interest rate futures, it was routine to respond to a sudden unexplained move in the market by calling the floor of the CME and talking to our broker. Caught up in the excitement of the loud heaving mass of brokers and locals in the pit*, he would […]
The performance of midstream last year didn’t align with the fundamentals. This is clear when you consider the periods either side (2024 and 2026YTD). Last year, the sector lagged and many investors became frustrated with the underperformance versus the S&P500, which really means versus the big AI hyperscalers. In 2024 midstream investors grasped the need […]
Williams Companies’ (WMB) youthful President and CEO Chad Zamarin gave an inspiring presentation to kick of their Investor Day last week. He described US energy infrastructure as a blessing, and natural gas as our competitive advantage. Zamarin traced the company’s origins back to World War II, when German U-boats were sinking US ships transporting fuel […]
The other day I was chatting with a retired friend about the inflation rate he should assume when analyzing his investment portfolio and its ability to fund his retirement. The Fed’s stated inflation goal is 2%, so my friend felt that 3% was a conservative assumption. There are several problems with using the CPI to […]
January was a good month for midstream energy infrastructure. The American Energy Infrastructure Index was +9%, the 10th best month of the past decade and the best since November 2024. For those who like simple statistical patterns, over the past ten years the direction of January’s performance has correctly predicted the full year 70% of […]
There were several positive news stories last week that helped propel the American Energy Infrastructure Index (AEITR) to +7% YTD, well ahead of the S&P500 which is +1%. Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) earnings unusually beat expectations. Moreover, their increased backlog of projects didn’t scare investors as much as it should given their perennially low Return On […]
In The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution, author Greg Zuckerman explains how today’s traders spend most of their time doing research. At Renaissance, the hedge fund Zuckerman chronicles, and other quantitative funds, traders spend much of their time looking for market anomalies that are likely to repeat and […]
More than most times, the energy market is moving on macro developments. President Trump is for low oil prices. He wants energy dominance which means ample supply. Although the White House is a big fan of the US energy sector, volumes trump profits. Trump’s first term was not a good one for energy investors. Oil […]
Energy was a laggard in 2025, and within that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) stocks were especially weak. The S&P Energy Index was +9.1%, 8.8% behind the S&P500. The American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) was +1.7%. The five-year annual trailing return on the AEITR is well ahead of the broader market (23.6% vs 15.3%). Over the […]
Regular readers know that around this time of the year my thoughts briefly stray from midstream energy to Christmas. My love of Christmas pudding has been well documented here (see English Christmas Traditions, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! and watch The Joy of Christmas Pudding). We all fondly remember the Christmas of our childhood. My […]
2025 has been frustrating for those who must explain short term performance in midstream energy stocks – which is to say your blogger, along with many financial advisors whose clients are invested in the sector. It hasn’t been an especially newsworthy year. In 2024, the realization that natural gas would benefit from the growth of […]
Hydrogen has long been thought to be a viable form of carbon-free energy. When burned, it produces water vapor. But hydrogen isn’t very energy-dense (about two thirds less than gasoline), is expensive to produce and hard to handle. An interesting fact is that H2 molecules are so tiny they can gradually leak through a steel […]
Renewables’ advocates are fond of linking solar and wind with the power needs of data centers. Superficially, the marriage of new technology and new energy seems inevitable. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) is just one example of media outlets that are telling this story (see Power Hungry Data Centers Are Driving Green Energy Demand). Inconveniently, […]
Midstream is mercifully removed from all the angst and excitement of AI stocks and crypto – although in a modern version of selling pickaxes to goldminers, natural gas and its infrastructure enable much of this activity. You have to admire the response of MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor to the bitcoin collapse which has crushed his […]
To be a climate scientist means to live with a dour outlook. The news is never good. We’re always at a tipping point beyond which irreversible damage to the planet will result. Humanity may die out. Therefore, it was cheering to find some good news in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Outlook 2025, albeit […]
Last week an investor asked us for ten reasons why they should commit funds to midstream energy infrastructure now. Typically, three or four bullet points will suffice to make the case, but in this case the request was for ten. Believe it or not, we were up to the challenge! Here they are: Valuations are […]
Your blogger is routinely critical of the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) — for good reason, as its narrow universe and tax-paying structure offer ample points of weakness. They’ve even struggled to calculate taxes owed, which resulted in two downward NAV adjustments in 2022-23 (see AMLP Fails Its Investors Again). At times I’ve even been critical […]
I just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book 1929, which relies on a lot of previously unpublished material to tell the story of the Great Crash through some of the protagonists. For those who enjoy economic history or even a good story, this will not disappoint. Benjamin Strong ran the Federal Reserve until his […]
The link between inflation and fee increases for liquids pipelines doesn’t draw much attention, but it proved to be valuable to midstream investors three years ago when the Biden administration’s excessive stimulus drove the Producer Price Index (PPI) up 13%. Maintaining purchasing power is the goal of most long-term investors. Inflation is reasonably close to […]
Last week there were two pieces of news that confirmed the bullish long term outlook for natural gas. On Thursday the WSJ reported on the Behind The Meter (BTM) arrangements that are becoming common (see AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants). This is faster than connecting with the grid […]
The last few weeks have been challenging for the bullish story on natural gas. On Thursday evening Venture Global (VG) disclosed that they’d lost an arbitration case with BP over their Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal. The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) found that VG had breached its obligation to make a timely declaration of the […]
BP recently published their 2025 Energy Outlook. When big oil producers make projections about consumption it becomes a political document. Climate extremists are quick to accuse companies of opposing the energy transition and consigning the world to ruinous warming. Yet capital commitments need to be based on rational expectations, not aspirational ones. Earlier this year […]
The energy sector is leaving investors unimpressed. YTD the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is +5% and seems to be marking time. The S&P500, increasingly dominated by tech and AI exposure, is +13%. Long-time clients, having enjoyed several strong years, hope the better days will soon return. More recent investors demand to know what’s gone […]
Investors are routinely advised to incorporate some international exposure into their portfolios. This can be to add diversification or, in the case of emerging markets, to participate in faster-growing economies. For a US-based investor, this is at best a waste of time. Worse, it can introduce unneeded complexity, cost and poor returns. By investing in […]
I’m traveling in Italy and am not so distracted by the cultural and culinary delights to have overlooked the news on NextDecade (NEXT). I’ve watched the subsequent stock price fall with disappointment. They lowered EBITDA guidance on Trains 1-5 from $1.1BN (midpoint of prior $0.9-1.3BN) to $1BN, starting in 2030. Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is […]
President Trump continues to heap pressure on the FOMC to cut rates, to the alarm of every economist and bond analyst. Central bank independence is the gold standard for western nations, the only way to assure that politicians don’t seek to juice growth synchronized with the election cycle. Fed chair William McChesney Martin Jr, who […]
Many years ago, when we were researching silver mining companies, I was fascinated to learn how insensitive production and consumption were to prices. Unlike gold, which is mostly held as an investment, silver has many industrial uses. Consumer electronics represents over a third of demand. Silver has few good substitutes and is a comparatively small […]
Goldman Sachs released a report last week forecasting that Brent crude will slip into “the low $50s” by late next year. It currently trades at around $66 per barrel, down $8 from its year-end level end and $11 over the past year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in their most recent Short Term Energy Outlook […]
Now that we’re more than six months into Trump 2.0, comparisons with Trump 1.0 are spreading. For energy investors, Trump’s first term was a huge disappointment compared with the high expectations held by many when he took office. A year ago, as investors pondered the impact of a Kamala Harris presidency, we were often asked […]
Most LNG export terminals are built when three quarters or more of their liquefaction capacity has been pre-sold to customers. This ensures that the project will generate cash needed to repay its financiers, since there’s not much else you can do with it other than export natural gas. Buyers have to pay the agreed liquefaction […]
The other day I listened to an interview with the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, on an Economist magazine podcast. Anthropic is in AI safety and research. They write large language models for sectors including healthcare and financial services. Many people think AI will create such fundamental change that it will eliminate jobs across large […]
On Wednesday Energy Transfer (ET) announced plans to extend its Transwestern Pipeline from Waha in the Permian Basin in west Texas to Phoenix. The Desert Southwest expansion project will improve the egress of natural gas from a region where it’s often produced along with crude oil, which is generally more desirable. The pipeline will support […]
July was action-packed for LNG names. On July 11 Morgan Stanley raised their price target on NextDecade (NEXT) to $15, having last moved it to $10 in October 2022. The stock rose 18% to $10.77 on the news and added further gains during the month. Morgan Stanley’s upgrade was the only news of note, but […]
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen described the US-EU trade agreement as “huge”, demonstrating a helpful grasp of President’s Trump’s lexicon. The imposition of tariffs and the threat of punitive ones has gone remarkably smoothly. That may not always be so, but for now markets are buoyant and inflation only modestly higher. The White […]
PJM Interconnection announced the results of their capacity auction last week. This is where suppliers of electricity quote prices to provide surge capacity for periods of high demand (typically hot summer days). It used to be uneventful until last year, when the clearing price was 9X higher than before. This led to the price hikes […]
The revenue and earnings outlook for the energy sector has deteriorated this year. Alone among the S&P 500’s eleven sectors, FactSet shows declining revenues of –9.6% when companies report for the second quarter based on bottom-up analyst forecasts. 2025 opened with high expectations following Trump’s election victory. And while the White House has followed through […]
Kinder Morgan (KMI) kicked off pipeline earnings season last week, as they do every quarter. Their adjusted EBITDA came in a little ahead of expectations at $1.97BN vs $1.95BN. Management guidance was positive. LNG exports and data center power needs are the two growth drivers for natural gas pipelines. KMI’s Trident Intrastate Pipeline secured […]
Morgan Stanley’s bullish report on US LNG stocks last week gave the sector a lift. The biggest impact was felt by NextDecade (NEXT), which was up 17%, bringing its market cap to $2.8BN. NEXT is still a small cap stock with no dividend, unusual for the midstream sector which is dominated by large-cap, investment grade […]
Last Wednesday PJM Interconnection began their Capacity Auction. PJM runs the largest electricity grid in the US, extending from the east coast as far west as Illinois. The auction sources commitments for surge capacity, to ensure that even during times of high demand the system can meet the need for power. Capacity auctions haven’t historically […]
The ending of many renewables subsidies in the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is being hailed as a win for the oil and gas industry. The WSJ wrote, The Moment the Clean-Energy Boom Ran Into ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’, suggesting that oil production will benefit. But in reality it’s about electricity generation, and oil produced just […]
Around this time of year, I’m often asked if we celebrate July 4th. Since it is the anniversary of America’s Declaration of Independence, in Britain it receives scant attention. But I often note that had the war turned out differently I might not have emigrated to America in 1982. We have much to celebrate in […]
Our power infrastructure survived last week’s heatwave, which saw the PJM Interconnect system peak at an almost twenty year high of 160,560 Megawatts on June 23. Natural gas provided 44% of generation, with solar at 6%. The ISO-NE system that covers New England saw peak demand a day later. This was met 47% by natural […]
The Energy Institute’s (EI) Statistical Review of World Energy provides a wonderfully detailed view of what’s actually happening, mostly untainted by any political bias. The world is using more of all kinds of energy, raising living standards across the developing world. Hydrocarbons still dominate and will for the foreseeable future. There’s still a tendency even at […]
This is the time of year when liberal news outlets warn of irreversible climate change. We spent a couple of days in Naples, FL which was, unusually, cooler than New Jersey. The daily afternoon thunderstorms that accompany hurricane season moderate the heat. When I first moved to New York from London in 1982 I remember […]
Conflict in the Middle East invariably leads to concern about disruption to crude supplies that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices duly rose once Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran. Around 20% of total oil consumption comes through this narrow waterway. It’s unlikely Iran could close it for long if at all. […]
To trade the daily moves in the market is to be an armchair strategist. JPMorgan estimates the crude oil market reflects a 17% probability of a worst-case supply disruption out of the Middle East. Presumably an oil spike would hasten the war’s conclusion via US pressure on Israel. So Israel’s attacks on energy infrastructure are […]
When conflict occurs that might disrupt global oil supplies, portfolios that include an allocation to midstream energy infrastructure usually enjoy some modest protection. Crude traded up 14% on Thursday night as the Israeli attack unfolded. Some opportunistic hedging by producers trimmed those gains during the day. Energy stocks as usual responded positively. The effect on […]
All over the world plastics are manufactured using derivatives of crude oil. Along with cement, steel and fertilizer these are what Vaclav Smil refers to as the four pillars of civilization. Modern life couldn’t exist without them. Renewables are largely irrelevant to their production. Anybody who studies how we use hydrocarbons must conclude, as we […]
Venture Global (VG) continued its post-IPO recovery last week. Back in January price talk was above $50 which would have valued the company at double market leader Cheniere. Pushback from institutional investors reduced the IPO price to $25, but it quickly sank below this (see Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained). VG has earned a reputation for […]
Macro issues are driving the market even more than usual. Pipeline earnings came with barely a ripple as companies once again generally hit or modestly exceeded guidance. Crude oil rose on Monday on news that OPEC+ was planning a smaller than expected increase in output. This coincided with Ukraine’s spectacular attack on four Russian air […]
In conversations with investors the Shale Revolution is acknowledged as driving US hydrocarbon production up. What is less appreciated is how much this has been a US phenomenon, with no equal anywhere else in the world. The technologies of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling were developed sufficiently that they allowed access to enormous reserves […]
The mood was reportedly upbeat at the 22nd Annual Energy Infrastructure CEO & Investor Conference (known as the EIC) in Aventura, FL last week. Performance has been good. The American Energy Independence Index, which reflects the overall industry, has a five year trailing return of 27% pa, easily beating the S&P500’s 16%. Management teams provided […]
My partner Henry Hoffman attended the 22nd Annual Energy Infrastructure CEO & Investor Conference in Aventura, FL last week. Below are Henry’s notes from presentations and meetings. The mood at this year’s conference was upbeat, with natural gas demand driven by data center power requirements and the next wave of LNG projects taking center stage. […]
In early April JPMorgan reacted to Liberation Day by forecasting a recession in the second half of the year. They assumed the tariffs would cause a drop in business investment. They also raised their inflation forecast. They didn’t reckon on the President’s tariff flexibility, and so dropped their recession call following the 90 day moratorium […]
New Jersey, where your blogger resides when temperatures allow, had a good story to tell on energy until recently. Power generation relies heavily on natural gas and nuclear (38% and 56% respectively in February). Residential electricity prices are 19.7 cents per Kilowatt Hour (KwH), above the US average of 16.4 cents but well below neighboring […]
Following Sunday night’s 90-day agreement on tariffs between the US and China, the S&P500 sailed back above its pre-Liberation Day levels. All is right with the world. Sentiment seems weaker than data, so one will correct. After Liberation Day JPMorgan called for a 2H25 recession. Following the tariff news they dropped that forecast. Fed Funds […]
Americans visiting Europe know that Republican presidents are generally less popular than Democrat ones, since Europe’s political center of gravity is left of ours. This is especially true of President Trump, which didn’t surprise us on a recent trip with friends to the UK and Belgium. Trade policy is largely how Europeans experience US presidential […]
Supplies of crude oil were already set to increase by 2.6 Million Barrels per day (MMB/D) year-on-year before the OPEC+ announcement on Monday. Demand is growing in emerging economies across Asia, Africa and South America, but not fast enough. This has led to forecasts of stocks increasing by 2 MMB/D this year. Last year we […]
On Friday the market achieved a welcome milestone in that the S&P500 rose above its pre-Liberation Day level. The unemployment report suggested that we’re not yet falling into a recession. Signs that trade negotiations with China may start was encouraging. Midstream earnings have been coming in with little discernible impact from the tariff trauma. Worth […]
It’s too early to say what caused the loss of power across Spain and parts of Portugal, but early signs are that it was linked to a disruption in solar supply. Some will soon blame it on global warming. But reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) requires increased electrification of energy systems. European governments are pushing […]
Midstream energy infrastructure is offering solid defense during a period when Presidential ruminations on tariffs or Jay Powell’s career prospects regularly cause 2% daily market moves. Operating a pipeline business is dull by comparison. These companies are largely immune to trade wars. They just keep generating cash and raising dividends. Last week Energy Transfer (ET) […]
Tariff turmoil and the market’s gyrations have elicited more than normal feedback on recent blog posts. Politically, our readers and investors tend to be Republican so many are inclined to look for positives in Liberation Day and the subsequent policy switches. Some echo Trump’s claim that foreign countries have been exploiting the US for years. […]
On Wednesday during Q&A following Jay Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of Chicago, he warned that the near-term impact of tariffs is likely to be rising unemployment and rising inflation. The Fed’s twin mandate is one of maximum employment consistent with price stability. Powell said, “I believe that for the remainder of this year, we […]
Last week President Trump said the EU should close its trade surplus with the US by buying $350BN of US energy. The Administration’s spontaneous policy switches on tariffs have been unpleasant for investors. But at least for those exposed to the energy sector, there’s a gratifying consistency in that oil and gas are invariably part […]
Dimitri Alperovitch co-founded CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity firm whose faulty software update on the Windows operating system last year led to worldwide IT failures. Alperovitch was no longer with the company, having left four years earlier to launch a nonprofit called the Silverado Policy Accelerator. In April 2024 he published World on the Brink: How America […]
Last year luxury car sales in Singapore collapsed. Sales of new Bentley, Ferrari, Jaguar and Rolls Royce models were down by as much as three quarters compared with 2023. This wasn’t caused by an economic slowdown. Singapore’s government clamped down on money laundering. Most buyers of such cars are Chinese nationals. Car dealers are required […]
A new administration took office determined to change the economy’s direction with overhauled policies. The leader and key advisers huddled, drawing up their plans in relative secrecy. Once ready, they were unveiled with great fanfare, heralding a new dawn in economic stewardship. Markets, caught by surprise without having had the opportunity to assess them via […]
Americans did vote for tariffs when we elected Donald Trump. Many perhaps thought they’d be implemented with a clearer strategic purpose. I had hoped we’d use them to open up foreign markets such as the EU, reducing our trade deficit by exporting more not by importing less. And most voters probably weren’t voting for a […]
Which is a more important measure of an investment manager’s skill – the return on the first dollar invested at inception, or the return on the average dollar? Return since inception is widely used because it covers the longest period. If performance is reasonably consistent, both methods should tell the same story. That this is […]
$1.4TN is a huge sum by any standard. It’s more than Spain’s entire stock market capitalization and just behind Switzerland’s. It’s more than Indonesia’s GDP and not far below South Korea’s. This is the sum that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has committed to invest in America over the next decade. It’s probably the best […]
In recent years climate extremists have become adept at weaponizing the legal system in pursuit of their dystopian aims. The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which was built to move natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia, faced extensive delays with only a few miles left, because climate activists were able to persuade a judge to […]
There are few parts of America redder than Naples, FL. Kamala Harris signs were nowhere to be seen last year. Florida has shifted from purple to red in recent years. A friend once received hostile comments from a local who noticed his Connecticut license plate, demanding that he not relocate but should keep his liberal […]
I spent a few days last week at the Catalyst Funds National Sales Conference in Puerto Rico. Catalyst is our mutual fund partner. It is about ten degrees warmer than Naples, FL where we’ve spent most of the winter, and the conference was once again thoughtfully located at the Royal Sonesta Hotel on the beach […]
On Monday the market dipped back below its pre-election level. The proximate cause was Trump’s ambiguous response when asked if there will be a recession. He has warned that the tariffs will likely cause “a little disturbance.” To this observer, the problem is more the rapid unpredictability with which new import taxes are announced and […]
Midstream companies are generally unaffected by the current round of daily tariff updates. Their stock prices may gyrate with the rest of the market, but nobody is revising guidance. It’s worth remembering that these are toll businesses, focused on volumes not commodity prices. Consumption of petroleum products is remarkably stable. It’s been between 20 and […]
Last week I gave a lunchtime presentation to a local investment club organized by Elliot Miller, a friend and long-time investor in midstream energy. Afterwards one of the participants came up to me and, disclosing that he used to work as a nuclear physicist, asked me what I thought of the prospects for Small Modular […]
Daniel Yergin is right to call it the Energy Addition. In an essay in Foreign Affairs called The Troubled Energy Transition, he notes that since 1990 hydrocarbons have dropped from 85% of primary energy to around 80% today. That can hardly be called a transition. Since 2000 global energy consumption has increased from 397 Exajoules […]
Suppose for a moment that the Sierra Club was a political party, with candidates running and elected officials in government. They might look like Germany’s Green Party, which has drawn support from idealistic German voters since the 1980s. They are politically left, view everything through the narrow prism of environmentalism and have a history of […]
It seems a lifetime ago, but in the latter stages of the capital bust that was the shale revolution, capex plans were often poorly received. In late 2018 Targa Resources (TRGP) drew the ire of investors when then-CEO Joe Bob Perkins dismissed criticism by calling their spending plans “capital blessings” (see 4Q18 Energy Infrastructure Earnings […]
Among Winston Churchill’s many memorable quotes is, “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.” This applies to some European countries’ posture towards Russia. The Economist recently asked, Will Europe return to Putin’s gas? Could they return to their reliance on Russian energy? The question has been buffeting LNG […]
On Thursday morning Williams Companies released their earnings without the rumored announcement of a Behind The Meter (BTM) deal. The stock briefly dipped as algos reacted to the news release but was soon rallying because the broad outlook for natural gas demand remains strong. It’s turning into a global high tech arms race. Proliferation of […]
On Monday Energy Transfer announced the first Behind The Meter (BTM) agreement of the AI era. They’ll provide up to 450 Million Cubic Feet per Day of natural gas to a data center being built by CloudBurst Data Centers in central Texas. This represents 0.45 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D), almost 0.5% of US […]
On Friday both the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times ran stories about planned capex on data centers by the big US tech companies. The DeepSeek news of two weeks ago hasn’t resulted in any discernible change. The case for increased power generation remains intact. On Wednesday Williams Companies will report their quarterly earnings. […]
Although the US is energy independent and a net exporter of petroleum products, we still import certain blends of crude. Canadian tar sands oil is the heavy type for which American refineries are configured as is Mexican oil. Shale oil is lighter. So we buy what we are set up to handle and sell what […]
Following Monday’s “sputnik moment” for AI the market has had a few days to consider the ramifications of DeepSeek’s apparent breakthrough. Mark Zuckerberg reaffirmed Meta’s plans to spend $60-65BN on data centers. They have embraced an open-source approach to AI, believing that sharing code freely will drive penetration. Since DeepSeek also published their code any […]
Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen called it, ”AI’s sputnik moment.” The news that Chinese start-up Deepseek may have leapt ahead of the US in AI caused an unpleasant start to the week. In 1957 Sputnik’s orbit led to the creation of NASA and fears that Russian satellites could attack the US from space. While Americans have […]
One source of recent volatility in midstream has come from a stock that wasn’t even listed – Venture Global (VG), the LNG exporter whose IPO priced on Thursday. The fundamentals could not be more positive. Trump has reversed the LNG export pause, wants US energy dominance and asked our trading partners to buy more American […]
I was chatting with an investor the other day, and he remarked that there are three powerful legs to the midstream story. They are demand growth for natural gas; attractive valuation; the incoming administration’s support for traditional energy. He felt that there’s too little appreciation of the underlying support from these three elements. Last year […]
Last week the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). People are often surprised to learn that US power demand has remained the same for the past couple of decades – at around 4,000 Terrawatt Hours (TwHs). The economy and population keep growing but offsetting this is improving energy efficiency. Electricity […]
It’s now less than a week until Donald Trump takes over in the White House. The past couple of months have caused many to wonder why there’s such a long gap between the election and the inauguration. It’s a holdover from the eighteenth century when the time was required to allow messengers to travel to […]
Wells Fargo has recently suggested that the market may start paying more attention to the P/E ratios of midstream stocks. The sector has historically been valued using Free Cash Flow or Distributable Cash Flow (DCF), which is FCF less the maintenance capex necessary to preserve the value of existing assets. P/E hasn’t been used much […]
Data center demand for natural gas was the big energy story last year. Wells Fargo referred to “a momentous year for midstream” with this as the biggest driver. It’s been consistently cited by JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Wells Fargo calculated that C-corps outperformed MLPs by 23%. This was a substantial difference and means that the […]
We enjoy the feedback from our blog readers, which along with the pageviews inform future topics. Looking back over last year’s posts, natural gas growth, the challenges facing renewables and obstructionist climate extremists were among the themes that resonated most. The most popular post was The Inflationary Energy Transition, which reviewed how US electricity prices […]
The other day I read a tweet complaining that since 1971 household family income had increased 5.5X (from $10K to $55K) while the median cost of a new car has gone up by 12X ($4K to $48K). It’s not quite correct. Median family income has risen to $101K, so has almost kept up. But it […]
Over the years I’ve developed a few soundbites to help investors remember why they should invest in midstream energy infrastructure. Once it became clear that climate extremists’ efforts to impede new pipeline construction were boosting free cash flow, I proclaimed that we should all hug our local climate protester and drive them to their next […]
Around this time of year, I’ve often indulged myself in writing about Christmas pudding (for more, watch this video). This English dessert is a rich, dark fruit cake best enjoyed heated with heavy cream. It is an acquired taste, and our children were each offered one brief opportunity to develop a taste for it. While […]
For years the center of gravity for global LNG trade was in Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were routinely over 60% of global LNG imports. Asia-Pacific was often over 70%, reaching a high of 75% in 2018. Australia and Qatar were geographically better suited than the US to meet this demand, and our […]
With forecasts for power demand growth seemingly increasing every month, it’s clear that part of the solution will be “behind the meter”, meaning new natural gas power plants directly connected to their data center customers without the need to connect to the grid. This also sidesteps potential complaints that existing electricity customers are subsidizing the […]
Last week my partner Henry Hoffman attended the 23rd Annual Midstream, Energy, and Utilities Symposium, held by Wells Fargo. The mood was understandably upbeat, underpinned by strong fundamentals and the more coherent regulatory framework expected following the election. Given our focus on natural gas, we were naturally interested in this element of the energy story. […]
It’s clear that natural gas demand is heading higher over the next few years. It’s less certain that this will push prices higher. New LNG export terminals are going to double our volumes sent overseas over the next five years. The widely criticized pause on LNG permits that President Biden imposed last January only applied […]
Sometimes this blogger stumbles across a phrase that begs to be used as the title for a blog post. Who better to be the subject of this one than the far-left climate extremists whose policies have led to higher energy prices, deindustrialization and job losses. Start with Germany. Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary recently described Germany […]
In recent years as extreme views on climate have become increasingly fringe, no hydrocarbon has enjoyed more of a reassessment than natural gas. Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talks about the “energy evolution” rather than a transition. The US is adding over 140 new gas power plants this year as demand from data centers builds. Accommodating […]
Like millions of families across America, on Thanksgiving we gave thanks for being with friends and family, along with “…sunny days and that we’re all together.” I added a silent appreciation that left-wing climate extremists were resoundingly defeated on November 5th. The market’s realization that the election had ushered in sensible, pro-American energy policies took […]
The word of the week is re-rating. Both Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley have suggested that, notwithstanding this year’s 50%+ return in midstream energy infrastructure, further upside is possible. They posit that a re-rating of the sector would not be unreasonable given the strong fundamentals. Enterprise Value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) is a widely used valuation metric, although […]
Market strategists often point out that valuations aren’t a good timing tool, but it’s still worth staying on top of whether the market is cheap or not. Stocks were having a good year leading into the election, and the Republican sweep took the market another leg higher. Residents of Naples, FL, our winter home, are […]
Sitting next to me at Newark airport on Monday while I waited to board an airplane was an FT reporter. I know this because he made a phone call to discuss the Trump appointments “on background” with a source who, based on one side of the conversation, had recently been in Mar-a-Lago. Chris Wright, Trump’s […]
When investors ask what return they should expect from an investment in midstream, we typically suggest dividends plus growth plus buybacks. Dividend yields are around 5%. Wells Fargo is forecasting 4% dividend growth next year, and buybacks of around 2% of market cap. 5% + 4% + 2% suggests an 11% total return, assuming no […]
As the market absorbed last week’s election results, energy was the clear winner. On the week, midstream infrastructure returned +8.4% while the S&P500 was +4.7%. The main driver of outperformance is the expectation of a regulatory regime not beholden to climate extremists. The pause on LNG export permits will be lifted. Although many expected this […]
Donald Trump’s political comeback looks a lot like the recovery in the energy sector. In March 2020 during the pandemic pipeline stocks slumped as crude oil prices briefly turned negative. Within a year Trump was out of office, faced numerous civil and criminal charges and was widely believed to be a one-term president. By then […]
Performance in the pipeline sector remains strong – closing in on its fourth straight year beating the S&P500 and ahead overall for the past five. But for the past six months the Alerian MLP Infrastructure ETF (AMLP) has increasingly lagged the sector, as defined by the American Energy Independence Index. AMLP is more or less […]
An axiom of capitalism is that a business must earn a Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) in excess of its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). It’s just as true for a lemonade stand as for a conglomerate. I should note here that fifteen years ago our younger daughter (then about nine years old) set […]
The pause in issuing new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) permits is among the least defensible energy policies of this Administration. It has been widely criticized. Jamie Dimon called it naive, and the International Energy Agency worries that it will impede the supply of natural gas on global markets. The US Department of Energy (DOE), which […]
The long term demand outlook for natural gas continues to improve. India is likely to double its consumption by 2040, and much of that will rely on imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This will offset coal consumption, lowering local pollution as well as CO2 emissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA), normally a tireless promoter […]
A couple of weeks ago South Bow Corporation (SOBO) began trading on Nasdaq. It’s a spin-off from TC Energy (TRP) which decided to split its liquids business off from its core natural gas pipeline activities. SOBO operates the Keystone pipeline that moves crude oil from Hardisty in Alberta south via Cushing, OK to Houston and […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released their 2024 World Energy Outlook last week. The IEA has become a renewables cheerleader in recent years, issuing projections of energy consumption that are frequently implausible. However, they still produce a Stated Policies Scenario (“STEPS”) which omits their more fanciful projections. Electricity demand from data centers has been a […]
Politicians from both parties long ago learned that fiscal prudence leads to electoral oblivion. Therefore, the absence of the deficit as a topic of conversation should surprise no-one. Publicly owned Federal debt is 99% of GDP and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is forecasting that this will reach 166% over the next three decades. Trump […]
We received a few comments from readers in response to last Sunday’s Heat Pumps Need Natural Gas. While EVs are widely criticized for the issues with charging, where heat pumps are installed, they seem to operate with little controversy. Defenders were quick to point out the benefits. One client in California uses solar power + […]
Some may find irony in BP dropping its goal of reduced oil and gas output by 2030 at the same time as Hurricane Milton is barreling towards southwest Florida – the second hurricane in two weeks. Four years ago, BP pledged to cut hydrocarbon output by 40% within a decade. Two years ago they scaled […]
I was surprised to read the other day that sales of heat pumps across Europe dropped 47% in 1H24 versus a year earlier. The EU has adopted more aggressive policies to combat climate change than any other region. Residential adoption of heat pumps is part of their green agenda. We recently replaced an oil furnace […]
Revisions this year for the ten year growth outlook for US power demand because of AI data centers have provided support for midstream energy stocks, as additional natural gas will be needed (see The Coming Fight Over Powering AI). A recent report from Morgan Stanley (Global Clean Power – At a tipping point) expands this […]
The outlook for crude prices is a frequent conversation topic among energy investors. We’re often asked for our thoughts – over the next several years we’re bullish as growing demand from developing economies competes with insufficient investment in new supply. But we don’t trade oil nor reflect that outlook in portfolio construction. Crude oil and […]
When a sector has enjoyed a period of good performance, the investor typically has to moderate her feelings of satisfaction at a choice well made with concerns about a crowded trade. When a good idea becomes widely acknowledged as one, prices are likely to overshoot as valuations become stretched. This does not seem to be […]
I spent two weeks recently touring southern England with my wife. It’s 42 years since I moved to the US, and I appreciate my old country more now than as a teenager itching to escape to the new world. We did some sightseeing and saw old friends. As we traveled around, the British approach to […]
If a single chart can illustrate the challenges in reducing emissions, it’s the scatterplot below showing per capita energy use and GDP. Raising living standards requires more energy. The relationship between these two variables is hard to break. Richer countries consume more energy, and becoming richer requires more energy. Everyone wants to move up and […]
It’s hard to overstate the global success of US natural gas production. Over the past decade we’ve grown output by 37 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D), accounting for half the global increase. We now produce over a quarter of the world’s gas. And it’s cheap. The development of fracking happened in America not elsewhere […]
To be an energy investor is to consider the energy transition on a daily basis. You don’t even have to be certain that man-made global warming is happening. Simply accepting that it may be possible should still induce a prudent world into managing this risk. Climate is complicated, and certainty that increasing CO2 emissions will […]
Journalists love to write about fast growing renewables. It fits the narrative that solar and wind can eventually replace our traditional sources of energy. It allows the absence of any serious push towards nuclear power to go unanswered. It avoids the uncomfortable question of why China’s increasing emissions from coal are acceptable when in America […]
Germany’s energy transition, or “Energiewende” as they call it, is causing casualties. One is the Green Party, which did so badly in recent elections that it may not be represented in Thurungia’s regional legislature. More state elections are scheduled and there are concerns of further loss of support. The Greens are the main proponents of […]
Oneok (OKE) is developing a habit of surprising the market with their acquisitions. Last year’s deal with Magellan Midstream (MMP) was roundly criticized, including by us, because of few obvious synergies and an unwelcome tax bill for MMP unitholders (see Oneok Does A Deal Nobody Needs). MMP’s refined products business didn’t look like a […]
Investors sometimes ask us what induces us to sell a security. It’s usually because relative valuation has made one stock more attractive than another. Williams Companies (WMB) is an example. The company holds a unique position in natural gas pipelines with its Transco network running along the eastern US. They have a heavily fee-based business, […]
Rivian’s R1T truck has a special storage compartment for golf clubs. Nothing else so eloquently describes the conundrum facing the auto industry. America is not an obvious market for EVs. It’s a vast place, so we drive greater distances. Gasoline is cheaper than in other developed countries. And we like big cars – two thirds […]
I traveled from San Diego to Portland, OR last week and enjoyed a delicious wine pairing dinner in nearby Oswego with a group of investors. Oregon is wine country, and its residents are knowledgeable about varietals and vintages. I met some people who cultivate vines as a hobby and enjoy producing enough to fill a […]
2Q midstream earnings have come in mostly at or ahead of expectations. Oneok had a strong quarter and are expected to raise full year EBITDA guidance in November. Targa Resources also beat analyst estimates and raised full year guidance. Cheniere beat expectations and once again raised full year guidance, something that is becoming a regular […]
US natural gas and its related infrastructure isn’t the only beneficiary of the AI-driven boom in power demand. Utility stocks have been rising, as investors assess growing power demand will boost earnings. The S&P Utilities Index is several per cent ahead of the S&P500 this year. Operators of data centers well understand the challenges they […]
Once again a liberal activist judge has succumbed to a far-left climate extremist group. On Tuesday DC Circuit Chief Judge Srinivasan, along with Circuit Judges Childs and Garcia sent parts of a previously granted permit from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) back for review. NextDecade’s (NEXT) Rio Grande LNG export terminal was one of […]
It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks. Debtors benefit when the currency in which they’ve borrowed depreciates. The Yen offered low […]
US natural gas is the cheapest in the world. December TTF futures on the European benchmark are $13 per Million BTUs (MMBTUs). The Asian JKM benchmark is $12.50. The US Henry Hub December futures are at $3.15. Fracking has become ever more efficient, allowing production to continue even at prices that seem ruinous. Range Resources […]
One casualty of the shale revolution was the MLP financing model. The General Partner (GP) would typically direct its MLP to finance assets that were “dropped down” from the GP. MLP capex and M&A more than tripled from 2010 to 2015. Cash returns too often came up short of those promised, and investors lost confidence […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which polishes its progressive credentials every time Executive director Fatih Birol speaks from his ivory tower, is forecasting fossil fuel use to peak within a decade. Down at ground level, evidence continues to mount that fossil fuel consumption will continue to grow, led by natural gas. Williams Companies CEO Alan […]
Tellurian finally put its investors out of their misery, selling to Woodside for $1 per share. The 75% premium to the prior day’s close is only impressive because the stock has sunk so low to this point. Founder Charif Souki was never able to obtain financing for this LNG wannabe. In 2022 in one of […]
Press reports suggest President Biden will bow to the inevitable and withdraw from the election – the first time since Lyndon Johnson an eligible president has declined to run. Betting websites and financial markets have been pricing for a new Democrat candidate since the debate. Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is unlikely to fare much better, […]
As we head into earnings season, Kinder Morgan will as usual kick off the reports from midstream energy infrastructure. The appeal of pipelines has always been their predictable earnings underpinned by long term contracts. Earnings surprises have been rare for several quarters, except for Cheniere which regularly beats to the upside. Many investors continue to […]
BP’s 2024 Annual Outlook continues to navigate carefully the political minefield that faces any big energy company in making projections about energy consumption. They’ve simplified their scenarios – in 2022 Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum all sounded faintly hopeful and for the first two totally unrealistic. New Momentum was the scenario intended to present […]
The White House pause on LNG permits has impacted negotiations. Poten and Partners, a research firm, estimates that Sale Purchase Agreement (SPA) volumes are –15% in 1H24 versus a year ago. It’s hard to get buyers to commit to buying LNG from a new export terminal without certainty about when it’ll be constructed. Fortunately, last […]
93% of car trips are less than 25 miles, according to data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The problem with EVs in America is with the other 7%. That’s where the range anxiety and charging infrastructure become an issue. According to a recent survey from McKinsey, the US has among the least satisfied […]
This is the time of year when friends ask me if I’ll be celebrating July 4th, in a wry dig at the losing side of that war. As a transplanted Brit I have more to celebrate than most – I point out that had the War of Independence turned out differently, emigrating to the US […]
For those wondering how the election will affect the energy sector, Thursday’s presidential debate offered some clarification but also added some uncertainty. Following Biden’s stuttering performance, he’s a poor bet to return to the White House after November. It must be more likely than not that his party will find a way to dump him […]
Last week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest ten year budget projection. It invariably makes for depressing, if unsurprising reading. Significant deterioration in our fiscal outlook is visible with every release. For example, in February we noted that one particular milestone, the year in which interest on the Federal debt exceeds $1TN, keeps […]
Cheniere Energy Inc (CEI) has come a long way since its founding by Charif Souki in 1996. Three decades ago the US looked likely to be an importer of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as demand outgrew dwindling domestic production. CEI planned to meet the gap with LNG imports. By 2008 the company’s LNG import terminal […]
It says something about one company’s dominance of AI chips when a presentation on power demand growth starts with Nvidia’s revenue forecast. But that’s how John Schultz of the Advanced Data Center Consulting Group opened a recent webinar. Unit volumes can be derived from sales, and the number of chips being bought determines the amount […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report forecasting an oil glut by 2030, with 113.8 Million Barrels per Day (MMB/D) of supply capacity versus demand of only 105.4 MMB/D. They expect oil demand to plateau over the next few years. By contrast, OPEC sees continued demand growth, albeit slowing to around 1 MMB/D by […]
The trend of positive assessments is continuing for the pipeline industry. Sell-side analysts are pressing the case for their favorite names. JPMorgan sees further upside for Targa Resources (TRGP) even though it’s returned 40% YTD. They have a $140 price target for the end of next year, up from ~$120 today. They cite a “fully […]
The inflation statistics offer a rich trove of counterintuitive methods that often inspire this blogger. It’s an important issue because voters cite inflation, for which they blame Joe Biden, as one of their top concerns. Inflation reports show it’s coming down, although that doesn’t mean earlier price hikes are being reversed, simply that prices are […]
Oregon is typical of many liberal states in that it is reviewing the infrastructure plans of the utilities it regulates. The concern is that too much capital will be invested in new natural gas infrastructure that will subsequently result in “stranded assets” as renewables reduce natural gas demand. The fear is that poor capex decisions […]
I was perusing energy podcasts the other day. Disappointingly they all seemed to be about renewables – nothing about where over 80% of the world’s energy comes from today. Hopefully I started listening to one by Shell, but quickly realized it’s part of their PR campaign to convince people they’re fully committed to the energy […]
Which is the best pipeline company? It depends on what you’re measuring. Income-seeking investors might focus on Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) yield or distribution (dividend) yield. Dividend coverage is usually important. Lowest leverage would provide comfort to those concerned about downside. Momentum investors will look at dividend growth – and few will ignore price performance. […]
Natural gas prices have been recovering in the US following several months below $2 per Million BTUs (MMBTU). The techniques of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) have enjoyed steady improvement, allowing break-evens to fall. An additional factor has been associated gas from the Permian in west Texas. E&P companies want oil but they get […]
NextDecade (NEXT) has drawn plenty of investor questions over the past ten days. It began with their most recent 10Q, filed with the SEC on May 13th. The phrase, “... there is substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.” wasn’t pleasant reading for many. How can a company that reached […]
Ominously for President Biden, opinion polls consistently show voters are unhappy with his economic stewardship. The surge in inflation in 2022 didn’t help, but after believing it to be transitory the Fed responded and it’s now back down. Wednesday’s 3.4% CPI figure isn’t yet at the Fed’s 2% target but is close enough that the […]
Costa Rica, a central American country of five million, has a proud history of strong environmental policies. Their electricity comes almost entirely from renewable sources. Hydro is 73%, with geothermal providing most of the rest. Solar and wind are minor. Over the past decade they have reduced oil from 12% to virtually zero. Costa Rica’s […]
Energy Transfer (ET) is the pipeline company most often directly owned by the financial advisors we talk to. It seems perennially cheap, and that’s in part due to their controversial history of at times treating themselves better than their other unitholders. They’ve provided plenty of material for this blogger to note how management always seems […]
Earnings season for midstream energy infrastructure has been wonderfully devoid of excitement for many quarters. These companies just keep churning out more cash, typically within a few percent of expectations. The exception is Cheniere (CEI), where earnings often come in substantially ahead of sell-side estimates. 1Q reported EBITDA beat by 12.5%. The company spent $1.2BN […]
I traveled through Indiana last week. A day and a half of meetings in and around Indianapolis were followed by a drive south for an afternoon at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. If you’re lucky enough to be invited to a Jockey Club hospitality suite, a good time is guaranteed. Tye Uppinghouse, our Catalyst Mutual Funds […]
Last week my partner Henry Hoffman and I had the opportunity to chat with Peter Hill. Peter holds board seats or is on the advisory committee of several companies where he provides energy advice, including Edge Natural Resources, Jaguar Exploration and Citizen Energy LLC. His long career includes 22 years spent at BP in various […]
Last week the WSJ published an interesting chart, reproduced below. It was in an article ominously titled America’s Economy Is No. 1. That Means Trouble. The chart shows that US share of global GDP has been increasing for over a decade. We’ve gone from 21% in 2011 to 26% this year. It’s an amazing performance. […]
Progressives will maintain that the planet is on track to burn up, but realists will see an unfolding positive story. Transitioning our energy systems is incredibly expensive, slow and inflationary. JPMorgan just published research (The Energy Transition: Reality check needed) acknowledging this and calling for a reset. No big company says anything about energy without […]
As we sat down to lunch in London’s west end earlier this month, Richard told me his family had been good friends with Patrick Moore, presenter of BBC’s The Sky At Night from 1957 until his death in 2012. He was a passionate amateur astronomer who taught viewers what they were looking at in the […]
The Wall Street Journal called it “Biden’s Green-Energy Price Shock”, noting that electricity prices have increased by 21% since January 2021. That this has coincided with increased solar and wind output ought to surprise no-one. Thoughtful progressives should hail this as a positive development and argue that higher energy prices are an inevitable and worthwhile […]
Vaclav Smil is often described as a polymath. His website says he does interdisciplinary research in the fields of energy, environmental and population change, food production, history of technical innovation, risk assessment, and public policy. He is Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba. I first came across his books when Bill Gates described […]
JPMorgan’s 14th Annual Energy Paper (subtitled “Electravision”) is as always packed with data and insights. Mike Cembalest has few peers among investment writers. Two themes, the slow electrification of western economies and the challenges of Electric Vehicles (EVs) stood out. As Cembalest has noted before, renewables are gaining market share of power generation faster than […]
By Henry Hoffman, Partner, SL Advisors In the realm of global energy, 2024 was heralded as a landmark year for the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, particularly for America. Optimism was buoyed by the prior year’s achievements, wherein American enterprises reached Final Investment Decision (FID) on the equivalent of 5 Billion Cubic Feet […]
The Magnificent Seven may be shrinking to the Fab Four as the number of AI-linked market leaders diminishes. Tesla and Apple are down on the year while Alphabet lagged the S&P500. That leaves Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and Facebook leading. As with the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, if you can link your business to the […]
Indonesia and Malaysia are apparently among the few places on earth with geology suited to hold CO2. This has drawn the interest of Exxon Mobil among others, who recently secured “exclusive rights to CO2 storage” according to CEO Darren Woods. Meeting the “Zero by 50” goal requires burying 1 billion tons of CO2 annually by […]
Last week a Federal judge blocked completion of the Cardinal-Hickory Creek high-voltage transmission line. The 102-mile project linking Dubuque County, Iowa, to Dane County, Wisconsin has one mile remaining. Three environmental groups opposed its construction through a Mississippi River wildlife refuge. It’s needed to upgrade an existing transmission line built in the 1950s, add capacity, […]
Treasury bills yielding 5.3% are not the worst place to put some cash. Long term expected returns on US large cap equities are generally 5-7%. Schwab expects 6.2%. JPMorgan is at 7%. The Equity Risk Premium is the lowest it’s been in over two decades. S&P500 earnings projections for this year and next are roughly […]
The Artificial Intelligence boom means the need for vastly more computing power. This is leading to a sharp jump in data centers, with a consequent increase in projected electricity demand (see AI Boosts US Energy). Elon Musk noted the pressure this is putting on the supply of electric infrastructure. Electricity is stepped up to very […]
In recent years the International Energy Agency (IEA) has moved from providing objective forecasts to championing the world’s shift away from fossil fuels. In embracing a liberal political stance they’ve lost relevance to companies and governments making investment decisions to meet future demand. For example, the IEA projects peak oil demand within the next few […]
Last week I saw some investors in Florida before joining my partner Henry in Puerto Rico at the national sales conference for Catalyst Funds, our mutual fund partner. The warm, sunny weather and ocean breeze stimulated much useful interaction with clients and salespeople about midstream energy infrastructure. It’s always helpful to hear firsthand the questions […]
There’s no shortage of books, essays and documentaries warning that climate change will make Planet Earth uninhabitable. Therefore, Hannah Ritchie’s Not the End of the World provides a refreshing reminder of how much is going right and likely ways we’ll adapt to a warmer planet. Ritchie is no climate denier. She studied environmental science at […]
European imports of LNG rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago. The US was well positioned to step in and provided virtually all the additional LNG Europe bought. The current pause on new LNG export terminals runs counter to these trade flows, but it’s increasingly clear this policy has few supporters other […]
American coal exports are booming. Exports of thermal coal rose 26% last year, to 44 Million Metric Tonnes (MMTs). This is mostly burned to produce electricity. We also exported 46.5 MMTs of metallurgical coal, typically used in industrial processes such as steel manufacture. Shipments of thermal coal to India doubled, to 14.1 MMTs, close to […]
Earnings for 4Q23 are almost complete. Most companies came in at or a few per cent ahead of market expectations. Cheniere (CEI) beat sell-side estimates by 11%, continuing a remarkable run. They are targeting a 1:1 ratio between buybacks and debt reductions and based on their long run desired share count should be retiring 12-13% […]
Recently I’ve given presentations to a couple of investment clubs in Naples, FL. Usually I speak about midstream energy infrastructure, but I was also asked to expand on Our Darkening Fiscal Outlook, recently published on our blog, The Q&A is always enjoyable at such events. Below are some common themes that came up. Don’t weak […]
There are two ways in which our looming fiscal catastrophe draws closer. One is through the passage of time, as entitlements grow with more aging Medicare recipients. The other is through worsening projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Both are happening. Start with interest expense. In the CBO’s May 2022 ten year Budget and […]
Criticism of the White house pause on LNG approvals continues. Williams Companies’ CEO Alan Armstrong said it would cause some countries contemplating the construction of new LNG import facilities to hesitate. The clearest result will be increased coal consumption since it’s cheap and widely available across Asia. Shell expects LNG demand to increase by 50% […]
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. It confirmed the current trends of increased production, improving mix and declining CO2 emissions. Most notable is that coal production is continuing to fall. This year should see output 20% below 2022, at 470 Million Short Tons (MSTs). We use […]
We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the White House pause on approving new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export terminals. Several projects are already under way, and the pause does not rescind approvals that have already been issued. So for example construction of NextDecade’s Rio Grande terminal is continuing, with permits already in hand. […]
It’s a question posed at every mid-cycle. Observers of commodity markets will often advise that the cure for low prices is low prices. Meagre profits reduce production, eventually curbing supply and driving prices higher. 2014 was the last cycle peak for energy. The shale revolution brought new US supplies of oil and gas onto the […]
Investors often ask us why crude oil prices aren’t higher. The industry has maintained capex on new production too low to sustain current production for years, without any apparent impact on prices. More recently, the Middle East has generated a plethora of incidents which might be expected to cause consternation about the reliability of supplies […]
With his moratorium on new LNG export terminals, aging President Joe Biden and his advisers have stumbled on a way to upset both ends of the political spectrum. Domestic energy businesses want to export more, cheap US natural gas to foreign buyers. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago the US pledged to replace […]
I began investing in midstream energy infrastructure almost two decades ago. When SL Advisors was founded in 2009 it was one of our core strategies. Over the years it’s become our principal focus. Infrastructure possesses enduring qualities for the long-term investor, and energy is just one segment of what’s often referred to as real assets. […]
Income-seeking investors often compare midstream energy infrastructure with utilities. Both own long-lived infrastructure assets dedicated to delivering energy to customers. Both tend to be regarded as yield-generating investments and are subject to considerable regulatory oversight on rate-setting. But the energy transition is impacting each sector very differently. Midstream growth capex peaked during the shale revolution […]
All three TV networks recently carried stories of northern state Electric Vehicle (EV) owners stranded. Chicago’s very cold weather reminded EV owners that not only do their batteries hold less charge when temperatures drop, but they are slower to charge as well. Public charging stations saw vehicles lined up – some EVs ran out of […]
The US is unique in that sub-surface mineral rights typically belong to the landowner. In every other country we’ve looked at, ultimately the government is the owner of what’s beneath you. This was a crippling feature of the failed effort by driller Cuadrilla to produce natural gas using US fracking technology in Yorkshire, north England […]
Allocating to emerging markets is a Wall Street construct designed to confuse investors and justify periodic reallocations to higher fee products that obscure measures of relative performance. Some financial advisors will be outraged at this statement. So let me quickly move to the evidence. Start with the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, the biggest […]
Chesapeake (CHK) and Southwestern (SWN) are the latest energy companies to be contemplating a merger. Chesapeake was founded by Aubrey McLendon, whose belief in higher natural gas prices combined with his ample risk appetite led the company into financial difficulties during a period of low prices. In 2016 he was indicted by a federal grand […]
President Biden probably won’t brag about US energy production, but when the final figures for 2023 are in the US will have set numerous records. Crude oil production reached a record 13.2 Million Barrels per Day (MMB/D) in October, surpassing the prior record set four years earlier before the pandemic. Few analysts were projecting this […]
It can fairly be said that the bond market boosted stocks in the last couple of months of the year. Equities have lost their cheapness in recent years, ever since the Fed belatedly became concerned about inflation. TINA became unfashionable as interest rates returned to unfamiliar, reasonable levels. Compared with bonds, stocks are as expensive […]
Heading into year’s end, a number of interesting stories caught my attention. Energy Transfer (ET) rarely avoids conflict and is embroiled in a dispute with three pipeline developers in Louisiana who sought crossings over Gulf Run Pipeline, owned by ET. Momentum Midstream, one of the developers with a $1.6BN project, accused ET of unfair trade […]
The only negative about the pipeline sector today is the direction of fund flows. It’s regularly covered in this blog and a topic that continues to mystify us. Although we’re still awaiting data for the last two months of 2023, it’s almost certain to be the fifth year of the last six during which retail […]
Christmas is a time of traditions, which in turn create nostalgia. Like endorphins, this is a free and harmless narcotic. Putting up the external Christmas lights, which we typically do right after Thanksgiving, usefully expends a few calories and kicks off that warm Yuletide feeling. Hunting through dusty boxes in the chilly attic for […]
This time of year usually prompts a blog post on MLP seasonals. It’s been a reliable topic (see 2015’s Why MLPs Make a Great Christmas Present or 2016’s Give Your Loved One an MLP This Holiday Season). The Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZI), which is tracked by the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) has long displayed […]
There’s no particular reason why a 12 month outlook is more important at year’s end, but that is nonetheless when research analysts take stock of past forecasts and offer new ones. In late 2022 many economists were forecasting a recession by now. In his press conference on Wednesday, Fed chair Jay Powell retained enough humility […]
Brent crude currently trades for around $4 per barrel less than a year ago. Back then Goldman Sachs published another highly convincing research report predicting higher oil driven by increasing demand and chronic underinvestment in new supply. Since then Jeff Currie has left the firm, hopefully not because of his not yet vindicated commodity super […]
SL Advisors partner Henry Hoffman spent a couple of days last week at the Wells Fargo Midstream and Utilities Symposium. He had the opportunity to meet with many of our portfolio companies and drew some useful insights. Below are Henry’s notes from the event. Chatter at the Conference: Throughout the one-on-one meetings, hallway conversations, and […]
Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) will soon move 2 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF) of natural gas from West Virginia to southern Virginia. It will allow increased takeaway capacity from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays in Appalachia. By connecting to Transco (owned by Williams Companies) it will allow for natgas to be transported south, […]
Bonds had a great month in November. The Bloomberg Agg was +4.5%. Ten year yields dropped 50 bps. Indications that the Fed will pause again were extrapolated into easing expectations as soon as next quarter. Lower yields help the relative valuation of equities, although Factset earnings forecasts are no longer trending upwards. Consequently, the rally […]
COP28, the annual UN climate conference, starts tomorrow in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It’s easy to criticize the world’s efforts at reducing global Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). They over-emphasize intermittent solar and wind instead of going all in on nuclear and should replace coal with natural gas. China gets a free pass to […]
Media coverage of reliable energy tends to focus on oil and gas. Oil comes in hundreds of different grades of complex hydrocarbon molecules. Natural gas, methane, is the simplest hydrocarbon of them all with a molecular formula of CH4. In between methane and crude oil lie Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) – successively more complex combinations […]
Next month VettaFi, which owns the Alerian indices, will announce a rebalancing of the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZI). This will impact the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) which tracks AMZI. For an index fund it does a poor job of keeping up with its index – ALPS Advisors, who runs it, reports alpha of –3.03% […]
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) faces daunting Math. Mike Cembalest, JPMorgan Asset Management’s Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, publishes a well-researched and insightful annual energy paper. In the 13th edition last March, he provided the sobering CCS math that sequestering just 15% of the US’s annual CO2 output would involve the same volume as […]
Steven D King is not as famous as his namesake, but for an economist can still write a spine-tingling book. Prompted by the inflation that followed the pandemic, King walks us through past episodes of inflation and their causes, and offers some clues as to whether it’s persistent or transitory. Moderate inflation of 2% or […]
Investors often ask what are the prospects for hydrogen as an energy source. In spite of Jeff Sommer’s conclusion that the market doesn’t think much about the future (see Priced For A Pragmatic Energy Transition) we think about it all the time. Hydrogen is appealing because when it burns it combines with oxygen to release […]
The other day a NYTimes columnist contrasted the relative outperformance of oil stocks with plunging solar and wind. He concluded that the stock market is oblivious to the threat of climate change whereas the UN and other scientists believe we must reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to zero by 2050. The writer, Jeff Sommer, briefly […]
Targa Resources provided one of several bright spots among pipeline earnings last week with a 50% increase in their dividend planned for next year. Their cashflows are increasing strongly. JPMorgan projects a Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) yield of 14% for this year, rising to 16% in 2024 and almost 18% in 2025. The new $3 […]
“I want to go make that happen” was twenty-one-year-old Elon Musk’s thought in 1992 on California mandating a 10% market share by 2003 for Electric Vehicles (EVs). Or rejecting a job building videogames, which he loved, because “I wanted to have more impact.” As a young man he wanted to colonize Mars to ensure human […]
For our entire careers the US budget deficit has hung over markets like the sword of Damocles. It was a political issue in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat George Bush, a victory enabled by Ross Perot siphoning off Republican voters with his warnings of fiscal catastrophe. Under Clinton we briefly ran a budget surplus, part […]
Financial advisors need no reminding that performance this year has been heavily influenced by how much you invested in the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla). Not only have the remaining 493 stocks substantially lagged the S&P500, but the MSCI All-Country World index of nearly 3,000 companies would be down this […]
It’s always interesting to learn how financial advisers use our energy infrastructure investments in their portfolios. Often, it’s for income, because the 6-7% yields are well covered by cash flow, growing and supported by continued reluctance to boost growth capex. America has the pipeline network we need. New construction gets held up by court challenges […]
I listed to the audio version of Going Infinite by Michael Lewis on a recent road trip visiting clients. If you’re planning to drive from Washington DC to Columbia, SC and then on to Charleston, you’ll find that the book and travel time are nicely synchronized. It’s always better when the author does the reading. […]
Last week the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their 2023 International Energy Outlook. It came out on Wednesday, the same day that Exxon Mobil (XOM) confirmed their acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and they’re linked in more ways than simply their announcement date. When energy companies issue long term energy forecasts they’re well aware […]
Only last week a new investor asked how the pipeline sector might respond to geopolitical risk. Conflict in any of the world’s trouble spots is bad for most sectors and the market overall. But energy is different, because the specter of supply disruption draws in buyers. Saturday’s massive terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas is […]
I traveled down the east coast last week – stopping along the way to see clients. My first stop was Washington, DC to see Robert Dove, an old friend from high school in London and a long-time client. We can both still recite the school song in Latin, an obscure skill not as highly valued […]
On Sunday my daughter lamented the fact that she didn’t have a ticket for the Chiefs-Jets game that evening. Not that she’s an NFL fan – she was blissfully unaware of the injury that Aaron Rodgers sustained three weeks ago and has no experience of the perpetual heartache Jets fans stoically endure. She just wanted […]
Changes in US oil inventories sometimes cause a sharp move in the price of crude. It makes perfect sense, even if it’s hard to tease out much of a statistical relationship from the data. Oil stocks, meaning oil held in inventory, have been falling since the early days of the pandemic when the collapse in […]
Students of stock market history will know that September is seasonally the worst month of the year. This month is typical. Some may think it’s October because of the crashes that month in 1929 and 1987. Only a few years into my Wall Street career, I returned home on October 19th, 1987, and solemnly warned […]
In March of 2020 when crude oil was collapsing dragging energy stocks, including pipelines, along, I tried to focus on the positive, which was that it had become cheaper to drive places. Except there was nowhere to go because of the lockdown. And even if there had been, I would have had to make roughly […]
A couple of weeks ago in Windpower Faces a Tempest, we highlighted the challenges facing offshore wind both in the US and Europe. A good friend of mine, a lawyer who has made his career doing energy deals, took issue with the blog post. A spirited text message interaction ensued, continued in person over two […]
Crude oil has rallied recently, in a much delayed reaction to numerous analyst forecasts that have been bullish all year. A couple of months ago Goldman’s commodities head Jeff Currie, who is leaving the bank, cut his year-end forecast for Brent crude from $95 per barrel to $86 while maintaining his long term bullish outlook. […]
The old MLP model rarely saw stock buybacks. Traditionally the General Partner (GP) would sell assets to the MLP it controlled in a non-arms-length transaction. The MLP would issue equity and debt to pay for them. MLPs were sellers of their own units, not buyers. Today’s midstream energy infrastructure sector has left that model behind. […]
At the end of August Orsted, a Danish developer of wind turbines, announced they’d be delaying their first planned installation off the New Jersey coast until 2026. They blamed supply chain issues, interest rates and insufficient US Federal tax credits. The Federal government had only recently approved the project. New Jersey Democrat governor Phil Murphy […]
The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could be forgiven for feelings of quiet satisfaction. They’ve raised short term rates higher than most observers expected, and odds of the consequent recession have been receding. The increase in the unemployment rate to 3.8% on Friday leaves it still well below full employment. Yet inflation […]
Nearly three years ago, French utility company Engie pulled out of negotiations with NextDecade (NEXT) to buy Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Concerns about leaks during the production of natural gas (methane) were the reason. Methane is a GreenHouse Gas (GHG) that is many times more potent than CO2 over a decade or so at trapping heat in […]
We’ve been critical of Magellan Midstream’s (MMP) proposed sale to Oneok (OKE) for months (see Oneok Does A Deal Nobody Needs), mostly because it forces MMP unitholders to pay taxes now that didn’t need paying and for some may never be paid. But we do agree with MMP CEO Aaron Milford that the growth opportunities […]
If you google “Florida solar” or “Florida natural gas”, both searches return around 150 million results. NextEra Energy, which owns Florida Power and Light (FPL), the utility that covers much of the state, is targeting zero emissions by 2045. Their 2022 ESG report says FPL expects to quadruple its solar generation capacity by 2031. They […]
The diminishing number of MLPs has started to draw attention from sell-side analysts. Morgan Stanley’s Robert Kad wrote in his Midstream Weekly that consolidation was likely to, “impact active manager mandates that have been dedicated to the sector.” The shrinking pool of MLPs and its impact on MLP-dedicated funds has been a developing problem for […]
Energy Transfer’s (ET) acquisition of Crestwood (CEQP) highlights the shortcomings of the proposed merger of Oneok (OKE) with Magellan Midstream (MMP). Because ET and CEQP are both MLPs, combining the two entities doesn’t constitute a taxable event for unitholders. This contrasts with OKE/MMP where MMP unitholders will face the recapture of deferred income tax on […]
Government regulations play a big role in energy markets. Although concern about climate change is part of the political discourse in every democracy, consumers and businesses aren’t going to reduce their emissions without tax credits, incentives and rules to modify behavior. Sometimes policies can have unintended consequences. Take ships, which mostly use heavy, bunker fuel […]
Last week the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) announced a reduced quarterly distribution. Regular readers know that AMLP has been a rich source of material for this blog. Launched in 2010 when MLPs were synonymous with pipelines, it was designed to offer exposure to midstream energy infrastructure without the K1s that so many investors and their […]
Midstream earnings are in, and generally met expectations as has been the case for the past several quarters. Williams Companies (WMB) enjoyed record natural gas gathering volumes of 18 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D). This drove 2Q23 adjusted EBITDA of $1,611MM, versus analyst expectations of $1,568MM. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exporter Cheniere continued a […]
Midstream earnings have been reported for the most part and generally came in at or close to expectations. Cheniere once again surprised to the upside, with 2Q EBITDA of $1.86BN versus market expectations of $1.62BN. They modestly increased full year guidance, carried out planned maintenance on their Sabine Pass facility on schedule and for the […]
It doesn’t look like a bull market, but July was crude’s best month in more than a year with the Brent benchmark closing up almost $11 per barrel at over $84. After peaking in spring of last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crude oil has been sliding irregularly lower. Russia has found ways to […]
Criticizing the Fed is a self-indulgence afforded the rest of us unburdened with the need to actually set monetary policy. The FOMC usually provides a target-rich environment. The last couple of years have offered a sumptuous feast of mis-steps. Start with synchronization of accommodative monetary policy with Biden’s uber-stimulus following his inauguration in early 2021. […]
The market currently assigns barely 50/50 odds of the Oneok-Magellan (OKE-MMP) merger receiving shareholder approval from both companies. When the deal was announced in May approval was judged to be highly likely, but it soon receded as analysts offered only lukewarm approval. We offered our view (see Oneok Does A Deal Nobody Needs) within a […]
Exxon Mobil (XOM) is not typically associated with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) but they are planning to double the volumes they handle by 2030, to 40 million tonnes pa. This would be equivalent to around 5.3 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D). The US currently exports around 12 BCF/D although that will grow as new […]
Life after Climate Change: Better than you think by Bjorn Lomberg was recently published in the National Review. Lomberg has published several books arguing that climate change isn’t the existential disaster often portrayed in the media. His most recent is False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to […]
Climate extremists have a well deserved reputation for a simplistic approach to solving the complex problem of curbing CO2 emissions without impoverishing us all. However, poorly informed objectives doesn’t mean they have a co-ordinated approach. The growth in solar and wind power is setting environmental extremists against one another. Take New Jersey, a state whose […]
Last year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) raised the tax credit for CO2 that’s permanently buried underground. Some CO2 is used in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to help push crude out of mature, low pressure wells. It can then be pumped back into the well for permanent storage. This is Carbon Capture, Use and Sequestration (CCUS). […]
It’s almost two months since Oneok (OKE) announced their proposed acquisition of Magellan Midstream Parners (MMP). Consummation of the transaction has never looked more promising than on the day of the press release. By mid-May, the market was ascribing less than 30% odds of shareholder approval, based on the gap between MMP and the combination […]
Independence Day is a wonderful holiday. It involves being outside in warm weather with the family to eat and watch fireworks. What’s not to like? Perhaps more than at any other time of the year, Americans rightly feel pride at our great country. As a transplanted Brit for now 41 years, my riposte to the […]
When it comes to energy, the media has a decided liberal bias. With a few exceptions, journalists covering this sector breathlessly highlight the phenomenal growth of renewables and criticize those evil fossil fuel companies who supply 82% of the world’s primary energy. The solar/wind juggernaut is barreling along and if you don’t jump on you’ll […]
On Monday the Energy Institute (EI) published the 72nd edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy. BP handed off this responsibility last year. They probably felt that saying anything about energy consumption would inflame climate extremists without commensurate benefit. The EI launched the publication with a webinar, which predictably was both upbeat on renewables […]
We’re getting used to 4-5% inflation. Using the Fed’s preferred measure, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), it’s been above 3% since April 2021. People are quietly mentioning the unmentionable – what if the Fed raises its inflation target? The Economist recently published a briefing warning that “failure to quell it quickly will transform financial markets”. […]
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is a measure of the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds. It compares the earnings yield on stocks with the interest rate on ten year treasury notes. For much of the past decade it’s shown stocks to be relatively attractive compared to the average relationship going back to 1962 – […]
Insider trading hasn’t been eliminated, in spite of the SEC’s efforts. In March Terren S Peizer, CEO of Ontrak Inc, was indicted for selling stock in his company when he knew they were losing a key client. He did the trades using Rule 10b5-1 which governs when senior executives can dispose of shares. Last week […]
New York and much of the northeast US was shrouded in smoke from Canadian wildfires last week. Westfield, NJ is around 21 miles from lower Manhattan, which is normally visible if you’re at a high enough point. Last Wednesday it was not. Neither was the sun. Millions of Americans experienced air quality more usually associated […]
The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) has suffered countless delays because of continued legal challenges from environmental extremists. Permits issued by Federal agencies were on many occasions rescinded by judges. No infrastructure of any kind can be built with such a process. When the recently passed debt ceiling legislation deemed completing MVP “in the national interest” […]
In February, the transcript of the dialogue between Bing’s chatbot and a NYTimes journalist illustrated a weird, unsettling side of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Kevin Roose, the columnist, mischievously led the chatbot through a series of existential questions about feelings which culminated in advice that Roose was in love with Bing, not his earthly companion. It […]
Last November SS&C Alps Advisors, the people who manage the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), admitted that they’d screwed up calculating the taxes owed by their fund. Mutual funds and ETFs don’t pay taxes as long as they comply with the rules of the 1940 Investment Company Act for an exemption. AMLP does not comply, because […]
Right up until the last minute, environmental extremists continued to use the court system to stymie completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which will move natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia. Permits have been issued by too many Federal and state agencies to list here. Extremists led by the Sierra Club with their […]
Last week the Midstream Energy Infrastructure Conference (MEIC) held its annual event in Palm Beach, FL. SL Advisors partner Henry Hoffman was there and today’s blog post recounts highlights reported by Henry. Oneok’s (OKE) proposed acquisition of Magellan Midstream (MMP) was a common topic, especially the unwelcome recapture of deferred taxes facing MMP. When a […]
An unintended side-effect of Oneok’s (OKE) proposed acquisition of Magellan Midstream (MMP) has been to give a bid to smaller MLPs. This has come about because of the shrinking pool of names available to populate the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZIX) and the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) which tracks it. AMZIX recently increased its maximum […]
Wall Street analysts are predisposed to be supportive of management’s M&A activities. The sycophantic posturing that precedes an earnings call question with, “Nice quarter, guys” lives in the hope of investment banking business. Hence the response of sell-side analysts to Oneok’s (OKE) proposed acquisition of Magellan Midstream (MMP) is one of mild surprise at this […]
Oneok Inc (OKE) surprised sell-side analysts with their Mother’s Day acquisition announcement of Magellan Midstream, LP (MMP) at a 22% premium. Anticipated synergies of $200MM aren’t that big for the $18.8BN transaction value. Management expects that to reach $400MM+ but nobody can ever tell after the fact whether it happened or not. And given the […]
Last week the WSJ warned that We May Be Getting Used To High Inflation. Only 9% of respondents in a recent survey think inflation is our most important problem. Government leadership (presumably the absence thereof) and “the economy in general” were both bigger concerns. Americans are learning to live with higher inflation. The University of […]
The relationship between crude oil and pipelines exhibits the qualities of a copula distribution. This was suggested to us last week by a highly numerate financial advisor, commenting on the tendency of the midstream energy infrastructure sector to have its biggest falls when oil is also collapsing. It is an unfortunate historical truth that a […]
I looked through First Horizon Bank’s (FHN) 10K last week. They were in the news because Toronto Dominion (TD) canceled their merger agreement due to uncertainty about when they might receive regulatory approval. FHN’s stock slumped to below $10. The merger price, agreed in February of last year, was $25. FHN CEO Bryan Jordan told […]
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) may be the least appropriately named legislation in recent memory. That doesn’t detract from its impactfulness. Ever since its passage last summer, energy companies have been exploring ways to benefit from the uncapped tax credits and other subsidies available. The IRA provided an improved tax credit of $180 per tonne […]
The regional banking crisis rolled on with two key developments on Friday. One was the release of several reports detailing the errors that led up to Silicon Valley Bank’s sudden collapse. Poor regulatory oversight combined with an absence of risk management were to blame. The other was the slow collapse of First Republic, which is […]
This Friday’s inflation update will include the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator and the Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI). The Fed prefers the PCE because its weights are dynamic. When apples rise in price relative to oranges, CPI assumes no change in behavior, whereas some substitution towards oranges is to be expected. PCE picks […]
A wood-burning fireplace on a cold day is a welcoming sight. The crackle and smell of combusting organic matter has provided a place for humans to bond for millennia. Coal replaced wood as the developed world’s chief source of energy in the 19th century. Because of this some feel a misplaced sentimental attachment to burning […]
I’m the treasurer for our co-op in Naples, FL. I recently asked our local bank to pay a more competitive rate on our cash balance, which is well over the $250K FDIC insurance limit. Their deposit rate for business accounts was 0.5%, and maybe because Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had just failed they quickly raised […]
Why are people so negative? A recent WSJ article included results to the yes/no question: “Do you feel confident that life for our children’s generation will be better than it has been for us?” 78% of respondents said no. They think the next generation will be worse off. This is the most negative reading in […]
FERC recently approved a request by Williams Companies to expand its Transco natural gas pipeline in New Jersey. As is usually the case, environmental extremists have been opposing this and other enhancements to the state’s energy infrastructure even though Williams, a commercial enterprise, is presumably meeting increased demand for its services. Of the seven fossil […]
I was in the UK recently where reducing emissions to zero by 2050 is now law. In spite of the conservative populism that drove Brexit, Britain is a politically liberal place from the eyes of this visitor who last lived there 41 years ago. Illegal immigration is a worldwide problem, and the British face African […]
According to the American Automotive Policy Council, the world’s biggest auto companies can use over a thousand silicon chips in each car. This fact from Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology resonated more than anything else in this fascinating book about the world’s reliance on computing power. Had I been asked […]
90% Of Everything moves by ship, at least according to author Rose George in her 2013 book that’s still fascinating reading today. George traveled as a passenger on a cargo ship called the Maersk Kendal. While onboard she interviewed the captain and crew members, enabling her to present an absorbing picture of maritime freight, an […]
First Citizens Bancshares has agreed to buy most, but not all, of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) carcass from the FDIC. They’re acquiring $72BN of loans at a discount of $16.5BN. The FDIC estimates SVB’s failure will cost it around $20BN. The Deposit Insurance Fund currently sits at 128BN. It’s funded by banks, which means by […]
At some point Congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve should result in a careful examination of the central bank’s error-strewn record under Chair Jay Powell. Below is a roadmap for discriminating legislators willing to conduct a critical review of the Fed’s serial mistakes. Above the Fed’s twin mandate of seeking maximum employment with stable prices […]
An Op-Ed in the Washington Post last week suggested that unrealized losses on fixed income investments are likely much higher than the $640BN on held to maturity MBS. It was written by Sebastian Mallaby, who wrote about hedge funds in More Money Than God and has published several other finance books. Mallaby relies on two […]
Investors have reacted to the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) failure by assuming tighter credit conditions. This makes sense over the near term. The US banking system has been increasing duration risk, and while SVB was more reckless than most they were not alone. Piling into long term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities required […]
Commercial banks have long benefited from depositor lethargy regarding rates. Although we now have a de facto guarantee of all commercial banking deposits, not just those up to the $250K threshold, customers are likely to pay a little more attention to return and risk, which will force banks to be more competitive. On the asset […]
Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) succumbed to poor risk management in holding long term bonds funded with demand deposits. If that’s all there was to banking we wouldn’t need many banks. But at a strategic level, Quantitative Easing (QE) as pursued for too long during the pandemic created the conditions for poor decisions. Central bank strategy […]
Real estate investors are keenly attuned to the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation. The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) is down 18% over the past year, lagging the S&P500 which is –6% and the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) which is –1%. Rising rates have cooled the hot property market that the Fed’s bond […]
From time to time we come across new companies and technologies that offer the potential to reduce emissions, thereby contributing to the energy transition. One recent example is Sea Forest, an Australian company developing a seaweed-based food additive for cattle that will reduce methane emissions (see How Seaweed Can Fight Global Warming). A few weeks […]
Casually following news of the energy transition can create the impression that the world is a few years away from running on solar power and windmills. The reality is that climate extremists have propagated two impractical beliefs that are impeding policies based on pragmatism. One is that solar and wind are the complete solution. The […]
The “energy” in midstream energy infrastructure is often the primary consideration of potential investors. It probably began with the increased investment during the shale revolution, and the energy transition generated questions about energy mix and stranded assets. But nowadays capital discipline beats growth capex while without energy security there is no transition. It’s time to […]
For anyone in finance, the US budget deficit has always been a looming disaster but rarely a current problem. It hasn’t been a political issue since Clinton ran for office and Jim Carville quipped that the bond market intimidated everybody. For a few brief years we had a budget surplus (1998-2001), but fiscal prudence long […]
A couple of weeks ago stocks and bonds looked vulnerable to strong data (see Confronting Asymmetric Risks). Since then the narrative of impending recession has been punctured by employment, retail sales and inflation figures that all surprised to the upside. Valuations based on the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) were only moderate. Since then, stocks are […]
Earnings continue to meet or modestly beat expectations. 4Q22 EBITDA at Enbridge of $3,911MM beat expectations by $16MM, or around 0.4%. The small margins between actual and expected at many companies highlight the visibility of their earnings. Along with TC Energy, both companies have a long history of dividend growth — 28 years at Enbridge […]
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy used to be a fact-based compilation of useful data. Skimming through the 2016 version, it recounts what happened and comments on likely trends. In recent years it has unfortunately degenerated into a political document. The historic data remains useful, but its implausible forecasts are there to defend itself […]
Enterprise Products Partners’ (EPD) earnings release last week revealed that leverage (Debt:EBITDA) fell to 2.9X at the end of last year. They are now targeting 3.0X, down from 3.5X previously. This is among the lowest in the industry, and reflects a continuing trend to strengthen balance sheets, de-risking the businesses. Years ago, Kinder Morgan argued […]
Wednesday’s soothing words on inflation from Fed chair Jay Powell seemed a distant memory after Friday’s blockbuster employment report. The market liked hearing that , “…the disinflationary process has started.” More relevant now is his warning that, “The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.” Investors are Confronting Asymmetric Risks, as we noted on […]
The Fed’s mid-week policy meeting will punctuate a busy earnings week. Sell-side analysts continue to ratchet down earnings forecasts. Factset reports bottom-up 2023 earnings expectations of $226, down over 10% compared with last spring when Fed tightening started to have an impact. Energy continues to be a bright spot, providing positive surprises in 4Q earnings […]
Last week Energy Transfer (ET) raised their quarterly distribution to $0.305, restoring it to a level last paid in July 2020. This cheered a great many people. Among the financial advisors we talk to it is the most widely held individual name. It is perennially cheap. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and (according to Refinitiv) 94% of […]
Most of the commodity questions we get relate to crude oil, since its price reflects energy investor sentiment and can move midstream prices. When oil and pipelines are down, people want to know why the volume dependency of midstream cashflows isn’t visible in stock price performance. The correlation between the two is unstable (see Energy’s […]
Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported earnings last week and announced that President Kim Dang will be taking over from Steve Kean as CEO. This prompted us to look back over KMI’s history, which reflects some of the best and worst of the MLP sector for the past ten years. A decade ago the shale revolution drove […]
On the weekend the WSJ highlighted contrasting views of the 60/40 portfolio between Goldman Sachs and Blackrock. The classic asset allocation had its worst year in nominal terms since the 2008-9 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and adjusted for inflation the worst since the Great Depression. It shouldn’t be a surprise. Bond yields have been too […]
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) published their Short Term Energy Outlook last week. The EIA produces an enormous amount of data and is apolitical. For energy investors it’s really all good news. US crude production is expected to grow, but slowly. Natural gas production will increase at a faster pace with export growth more […]
Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist, thinks stocks could fall 22% this year. Wall Street is bearish, and the mood has spread to consumers. Earnings forecasts are falling and households report expectations close to the depths of the 2008 great financial crisis. A lot of smart people are negative. We don’t spend any effort […]
The Fed has a poor forecasting record, something Wall Street never tires of pointing out. The chart below from Barclays shows the FOMC’s constant self-correction on inflation through successive meetings. Fed chair Powell downplays the blue dots but often refers to them at his press conferences. Usually, the dots move towards the market as the […]
You might think last year’s 39.5% outperformance of the S&P500 by the pipeline sector was a record but in 2016 the margin was 42.0%. This followed a harrowing 41.0% underperformance the prior year. However, the past two years have been the best on record, with the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) beating the S&P500 by […]
Readers know not to expect bearish views on energy from this blog. A year ago, we offered ten reasons why we thought the outlook was positive (see The Upside Case For Pipelines – Part 1 and Part 2). We were right about the direction but not all our reasons played out. Below is a report […]
Consumer sentiment is as bad as 1980 when inflation was 13%. The Fed funds rate swung from 17% to 9% before peaking at 19% in early 1981. Eight US marines died in Iran in a failed attempt to rescue our hostages. John Lennon was shot. No wonder Ronald Reagan won election later that year. Consumers […]
Christmas pudding is among my favorite traditions of the season. Like marmite, it’s only offered by English parents, and failure to acquire a taste when young quickly becomes permanent. Our children were offered a perfunctory opportunity and only one chance at rejection, a rule I imposed to ensure an adequate supply for the rest of […]
My visceral reaction upon reading headlines such as Martin Wolf’s “Glimmers of light in a terrible year” in the Financial Times is to counter with positives. I am a glass half full guy, a prerequisite to navigating 2015-20 when pipeline stocks lagged the S&P500 for five years out of six. Wolf says, “Few will regret […]
For the first time in history, nurses who work for Britain’s National Health Service went on strike last week. They’re demanding a 19% pay increase, to make up for current inflation as well as the “20 per cent that has been eroded” from pay over the past decade, according to union leader Pat Cullen. Nurses […]
The energy sector is closing out a strong year weakly. This shouldn’t detract from the fundamentals, which remain strong. The American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is 36% ahead of the S&P500 YTD after finishing 10% ahead last year. That almost two-year period of outperformance is the best since the index’s inception date in 2010. Battle-hardened […]
How do you conservatively value illiquid assets in a fund that offers liquidity to existing investors and accepts money from new ones? That’s the unsolvable question inadequately answered by the $125BN Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust (BREIT), which is why they were forced to suspend withdrawals. Private equity funds typically raise money and invest it […]
Dinner in late 2017 with Enlink’s soon to be CEO Mike Garberding and his management team was the most expensive I’ve ever had. Not because I had to pick up the check – they were gracious hosts. But because I left the restaurant impressed with Garberding’s grasp of the company’s opportunities and knowledge of the […]
We all know the US tax code is complicated. ALPS Advisors, manager of the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), has been tripped up by the tax complexities inherent in their fund structure. As a result they’ve been forced to make an embarrassing NAV adjustment to AMLP for taxes, depressing the fund’s NAV by almost 4%. It […]
Midstream is up 27% for the year as of Tuesday, but investors are showing no irrational exuberance. The North American pipeline sector retains its MLP moniker because MLPs used to be the dominant corporate structure. Even though it’s now two thirds corporations, the ‘40 Act funds who specialize in the sector are still called MLP […]
Long term energy forecasts are nowadays subject to a partisan test by many readers based on whether or not they project a rapid energy transition. The biggest oil and gas producers such as Exxon Mobil and Shell understand that the media interprets their published long run energy forecasts as reflecting their capex criteria. The result […]
The COP27 ended with an agreement by rich countries to make increased payments to poor ones, but a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels failed to gather unanimous support. The holdouts included Saudi Arabia and Russia, who supply substantial volumes of oil and gas to willing buyers but don’t rank highly on the list […]
2022 should have been a great year for renewables. The prices of fossil fuels, which they are supposed to replace, have jumped. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the importance of energy security, which solar panels and windmills offer because most countries can find places to build them. And global Green House Gas emissions (GHGs) […]
Bitcoin could be poised for another ascent. Bulls will be encouraged that Jim Cramer advised holders to sell following the collapse of FTX. Few readers would have been surprised when this blog first expressed crypto-skepticism in December 2017. Its return since then is 1.7% pa, substantially behind the market and, naturally, midstream energy infrastructure. But […]
As the world’s leaders meet in Egypt at the COP27 climate change conference, there are reasons for optimism among those who yearn for a pragmatic approach to reducing global Green House Gas emissions (GHGs). The Economist magazine front covers over the past couple of years provide an evolving perspective from one publication that likes to […]
Fed chair Jay Powell and the American worker do not have an alignment of interests. In his remarks, following another 0.75% rate hike, Powell said the FOMC is, “acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, […]
New England’s largest utility, Eversource, is worried about a looming shortage of natural gas. CEO Joseph Nolan has publicly asked the White House to make plans for emergency supplies in the event of a severe cold spell this winter. North America has abundant supplies and export volumes will grow. Europe is gearing up to increase […]
A few weeks ago, my wife and I were fortunate enough to attend a wedding quite literally next door at our neighbors’ house. Freed from any concern about driving us both home safely, I was already in a mildly ebullient mood when I met Australian Stephen Turner. Now I may be promoting a stereotype and […]
Electric Vehicle (EV) penetration in the US is slower than many other countries. Sales of EVs and hybrids reached 5% market share last year, compared with 16% in China and 17% in Europe. US auto ownership is among the highest in the world, at 875 per 1,000 people. But relatively cheap gasoline weakens the cost […]
Poland has stopped producing fertilizer. Natural gas is a key input into the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). The European energy crisis has rendered their manufacture uncommercial because of high natural gas prices, which are likely to persist for at least another year or so. Poland produces 6 […]
UK Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss has reached “in office but not in power” in record time. On September 6th she met with Queen Elizabeth II and formally became PM. Two days later the Queen died, commencing a period of mourning that ended with the monarch’s funeral on September 19th. Practically speaking, that’s when Liz […]
The relationship between crude oil prices and pipeline stocks is a perennial subject – why do the toll-like features of midstream energy infrastructure sometimes fail to separate the sector from the vicissitudes of commodity markets? The truth is they move together more at certain times than others. The 2015 drop in crude caused by excessive […]
Recently Shell’s CEO commented that China had added more coal production capacity during the third quarter than Shell’s entire global energy production. It is a response to high prices. We don’t often write about coal because we’re not invested in it. Prices have more than doubled over the past year, although were lower in September […]
Tellurian (TELL) CEO Charif Souki is one of the more colorful executives in the energy sector. In his book The Frackers, WSJ journalist Gregory Zuckerman memorably chronicles his career from a “shaggy-haired Lebanese immigrant” who spent seven years in Aspen where he “skied and bummed around” to founding Cheniere, today’s leading exporter of US Liquefied […]
Although inflation has soared to levels not seen in forty years, expectations for future inflation have stayed remarkably low. This is evident in the bond market, where the spread between five year treasury notes and five year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) is 2.4%, implying average inflation of that level. The forecast over ten years […]
Midstream energy infrastructure lagged the market sharply following last week’s FOMC meeting with its revised dot plot. The odds of a recession have increased. Although infrastructure businesses have very visible cashflows, enough holders operate on a hair trigger that requires little inducement to sell. It’s doubtful you’ll see any revision to guidance as a result […]
“I have approximate answers and possible beliefs in different degrees of certainty about different things, but I’m not absolutely sure of anything.” Fed chair Jay Powell did not say this at his press conference on Thursday. It is attributed to American physicist Richard Feynman. But had Powell uttered these words they would not have seemed […]
The northern hemisphere winter is approaching, which means more opportunities for amusement or shock at New England’s masochistic energy policies. Massachusetts and neighboring states have denied themselves access to abundant US natural gas in the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania by preventing the construction of new pipelines that would connect them. As with most initiatives embraced […]
The August CPI report that came out last Tuesday was the catalyst for a sharp market reversal. The headline number was a benign 0.1%, helped by falling gasoline prices. But the “core” number (ex food and energy) came in at 0.6%. There were several factors, but chief among them because of its high weighting was […]
On Monday evening Cheniere provided their third revised EBITDA guidance of the year. It’s good that they’re not based in the EU where they would be a target of the planned windfall profits tax. Cheniere has raised guidance by $1.2BN (after 1Q earnings), $1.6BN (after 2Q earnings) and now another $1.2BN pointing to a range […]
Recently a long-time investor Jeff Waters suggested that it might be interesting to dig a little deeper into the valuation metrics that make midstream energy infrastructure such an attractive sector. It resulted in a podcast interview, which you can access here. The roughly 2/3rds drop in growth capex since 2018 underpins an improving cash flow […]
Few should be surprised that Russia has shut off all natural gas to western Europe, on a timing of their choosing not Germany’s. EU countries and the UK are implementing price controls and residential subsidies in various forms to cushion the blow from electricity prices that have risen as much as 10X over the past […]
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has a checkered history. In 2019 CEO Vicki Hollub snatched Anadarko away from Chevron (CVX), who already had a signed deal in place. CVX CEO Mike Wirth showed financial discipline that’s rare in such cases and declined to get into a bidding war. Instead, they walked away with a $1BN break-up fee. […]
The beginning of my career in finance overlapped with the presence of morning suits on the floor of the London Stock Exchange. Mullens & Co, founded in 1786, held the privileged role of “government broker”, meaning they transacted directly with the UK Treasury and were an important intermediary in financing the UK government. As recently […]
“Thank you for being the bright spot in our client portfolios,” said investor Emily Jaffe. We had just sat down to enjoy a most convivial lunch with Emily and her business partner Jeff Waters of OFC Wealth Management. In the photo below we are toasting the performance of the pipeline sector this year. Superstition has […]
Many readers enjoyed the recent blog posts on Bad Investment Ideas. Our criticism of ESG was especially popular, with many assessing it as a meaningless investment fad. ESG isn’t inherently bad – who doesn’t want better “G” (Governance) at their portfolio companies? But if every company can find someone to rate them highly on ESG, […]
A few weeks we posted Bad Investment Ideas Still Flourish (Part 1). The current plethora of products injurious to one’s financial health assured enough material for Part 2. ESG Like many Wall Street fads, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards started out as a good idea before being used to exploit the naïve and those […]
Managing investments in pipeline companies, even with a bias towards natural gas as we have, nonetheless means explaining the relationship with crude oil. It measures energy investor sentiment like a Texas-sized barometer. A discussion about the near-term direction of oil is often an important timing consideration for many investors. A simple count of the frequency […]
US households are learning to cope with inflation in basic necessities, such a food and energy. Even though the recent CPI report was encouraging, the rising cost of living is a political issue. Fawlty Towers, the brilliant twelve episode British comedy series with John Cleese as the eponymous hotel owner Basil Fawlty, has a scene […]
The Fed has a problem with long-term yields. They are remaining stubbornly low, in willful defiance of steadily increasing short term rates. Slowing the economy so as to raise unemployment will be hard unless bond yields move high enough to impede some capital investment and debt issuance. There were signs of this in the spring […]
The theme to pipeline earnings for 2Q22 is one of positive surprises. It reminds me of Don Layton, former vice chair at JPMorgan and more recently CEO of Freddie Mac, when I told him I’d hired a new derivatives trader with a perfect Math SAT. Don, not easily impressed, responded by recounting a class he […]
To the twin certainties of death and taxes, the energy investor might add increased US exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is far from certain, but it’s hard to envisage Europe ever relying on Nord Stream 2 for natural gas. Moreover, once the flows from Nord Stream 1 […]
Making eurodollar futures interesting is not among Fed chair Jay Powell’s goals, but he’s achieved it nonetheless. From just after their June FOMC meeting through Thursday, the market has lopped over 0.50% off the projected rate cycle. The cycle peak has even been brought forward, from March 2023 to this coming December. The FOMC’s Statement […]
I spent the last couple of days at LPL’s Focus event in Denver, meeting a good number of clients and prospects. Denver’s enormous conference center was teeming with LPL financial advisors. CEO Dan Arnold gave an inspiring talk. Human contact is roaring back. On the flight out to Denver, a couple of recent conversations reminded […]
The other day a White House spokesman offered familiar criticism of oil companies for not reducing gasoline prices to match the recent drop in crude. It’s easy to manipulate charts to make a point, and the example used in the press briefing does that. Gasoline prices have fallen recently, but is their relationship with crude […]
Higher prices for traditional energy are supportive of increased use of renewables. The point of a carbon tax is to create price signals for users and producers of coal, oil and gas that reflect society’s assessed cost of the burden imposed by rising CO2 emissions. Uncertainty over long-term public policy has led to years of […]
Earnings season for the pipeline sector kicks off Wednesday 20th with Kinder Morgan. Crude oil prices have slid over the past several weeks, reflecting increased fears of recession and China’s ongoing efforts to eliminate Covid through regional lockdowns. Sharp moves in oil affect energy sentiment and the consequent drop in midstream energy infrastructure reflects these […]
On Monday Nord Stream 1 was shut down for annual maintenance, cutting off the remaining Russian natural gas exports to Germany. Europe’s biggest economy continues to provide lessons to the rest of us on what a flawed energy strategy looks like. German industry anxiously waits to see whether some contrived additional repairs will extend the […]
It’s an odd recession when the economy adds 372K jobs and the unemployment rate stays at 3.6%. We seem to be talking ourselves into one. Consumer expectations are the lowest in almost a decade. High prices for energy and food are the culprit. Few are seeing their incomes keep pace with 8% inflation, so real […]
US drivers may complain about the cost of filling up, but the epicenter of the energy crisis is Germany. The world’s third biggest exporter (behind China and the US) reported a monthly trade deficit for the first time in over thirty years. Higher energy prices hit in two ways – Germany is spending much more […]
May 17 represented a memorable anniversary for me as it marked 40 years since I first moved to the US. Another Brit leaving the old world for the new. I arrived on an evening flight from Toronto where I’d spent a week with family. It was my first time in NY and such was the […]
The energy transition’s long overdue reassessment was already under way by the time Russian missiles began falling on Ukraine. Fear of stranded assets has been replaced by the sudden need for energy security. At a recent JPMorgan energy conference, CEO Jamie Dimon repeated his call for a new “Marshall Plan” to ensure energy security for […]
Every investor is aware that the market’s been volatile recently. The VIX is high but converting it into typical daily moves isn’t intuitive. Several readers like the chart below, which shows what % of the last 100 trading days have seen the market move by more than 1% in either direction. It’s currently 55, so […]
Amid the more hawkish Fed and consequent sharp drop in the market, the jump in real yields has not drawn much attention. The rise in ten year yields came with inflation expectations remaining well anchored at around 2.75%. TIPs yields rose with nominal ones. Factset earnings expectations don’t yet reflect the pessimism of public company […]
People may disagree on whether this Fed is hawkish or not, but reactionary is not a controversial adjective. They first demonstrated this in waiting eighteen months after the Covid vaccine and fifteen months after the last $1.9TN slug of fiscal uber-stimulus to roll back their monetary accommodation. Quantitative Easing (QE) is more aptly followed by […]
Vaclav Smil is a polymath whose prolific writing on energy has produced his latest book, How the World Really Works. You read Smil slowly, taking time to digest the facts and conclusions that are his trade. He combines expertise across several disciplines to explain the technology and inputs supporting modern western lifestyles. In Fossil Future, […]
There were three stories last week that can best be characterized as providing energy realism. The fire at Freeport’s LNG facility sent US natural gas prices skidding, with the loss of 2 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D) of export capacity. Freeport warned it’ll be at least three weeks before operations can resume – meaning […]
When the MLP structure dominated midstream energy infrastructure almost a decade ago, yield was a popular valuation metric. MLPs typically paid out 90% or more (sometimes over 100%) of their Distributable Cash Flow (DCF). Comparing MLP yields with the ten year treasury provided a measure of historic valuation. By this metric, midstream isn’t cheap. The […]
Getting to zero emissions by 2050, the goal set by the UN in order to limit global warming to 1.5° C above pre-industrial times, is technically well within reach. Not with intermittent solar panels and windmills – extracting all the minerals necessary for their manufacture plus enormous battery back-up in implausible. Kinder Morgan’s enhanced oil […]
Alex Epstein’s 100K Twitter followers have anticipated for months the publication of Fossil Future – Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas – Not Less. Few authors have promoted a book more relentlessly. I awaited its publication eagerly. It is the follow up to Epstein’s 2014 book, The Moral Case for […]
Maybe last week’s FOMC minutes had something for everyone. Some analysts seized on the consideration the Fed gave to tighter monetary policy: “They also noted that a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook.” On the other hand, the minutes noted that, […]
Offering investments tailored to ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria is a growing source of fee income for Wall Street. Morningstar calculates that 65 US funds have been repackaged into ESG funds since the beginning of 2019. Investors are attracted by the notion of holding virtuous stocks, but companies and fund managers must also find […]
The continued rally in the energy sector is steadily lifting past performance ahead of the S&P500 over multiple timeframes. The American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) now has a higher annual return than the S&P500 over the past one, two and three years. Even over five years the performance gap is closing. The 12.3% pa return […]
Last week’s Economist magazine included an illuminating op-ed by Nigeria’s vice-president on “the hypocrisy of rich countries’ climate policies.” Like most emerging countries, Nigeria is simultaneously pursuing two goals; improving the access of Nigerians to energy, while reducing the country’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Vice-president Yemi Osinbajo’s essay neatly captures the dilemma his and other […]
Financial advisors probably feel that they’re more than earning their pay recently. Market volatility is high, which means clients want to know what’s going on. Advisors have in the past confided to me that one of their most important roles is to persuade clients from selling impetuously. Their original asset allocation was made after much […]
If it feels like the market’s daily swings are giving you whiplash, you’re right. Following Monday’s rout, the number of daily moves in excess of 1% breached 50% over the past hundred days. In other words, a 1% or greater change in the S&P500 is now more likely than not. This is unusual. Markets were […]
Earnings for pipeline companies are generally devoid of excitement unless steady growth gets you animated, such is the stability of most business models. But 1Q22 earnings were full of positive surprises. Cheniere (CEI) blew away expectations with 1Q22 EBITDA 65% ahead of consensus. Most of their Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) contracts are based on a […]
The ten year treasury yield touching 3% has drawn headlines, but the bigger story is that the increase in nominal yields has been driven by rising real yields. Ten year TIPs yield 0.18%, the first time they’ve been positive in over two years. Until recently, real yields had been declining irregularly for decades. $TNs of […]
Last week recession questions were more common than in the past during our many conversations with clients. The likely performance of the energy sector during a slowdown is what they’re asking. Recession risks are growing in the minds of many. In one recent survey, a third of economists are forecasting a recession within two years. […]
The US was increasing its net exports of natural gas before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added an element of urgency. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) gets most of the attention, but this year we’ll export nine Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D) by pipeline, to Mexico and eastern Canada. LNG exports are still rising, with most […]
Earlier this month there was a fascinating exchange on Bloomberg TV between former NY Fed president Bill Dudley and journalist Jonathan Ferro. Dudley has been vocal in criticizing the slow rate at which his former FOMC colleagues have been normalizing monetary policy. He’s pointed to the robust stock market and warned that the Fed’s going […]
Wells Fargo describes Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as THE theme for midstream energy infrastructure. In a recent series of meetings they found investors were “highly constructive on long-term fundamentals for global LNG…and looking for ways to play the theme.” One reason is that Europe’s pivot on energy security seems unlikely to change regardless of the […]
The energy sector, already responding to inflation in recent months, has been a clear winner from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Few countries in history have striven for energy independence as much as America. Having achieved it, the US is now in a position to help Europeans achieve energy security. They have no hope of energy […]
In the US, energy independence has been a sought after goal for generations. Ever since the 1973 Arab oil embargo in response to the Yom Kippur War, US presidents have spoken out in favor of reducing our dependence on foreign oil – notably OPEC. There are several definitions of energy independence — The definition of […]
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack explains why Democrats are partly to blame for high energy prices
What’s the best shape for the yield curve? Today’s flat verging on inverted shape isn’t optimal. It suggests the market is worried that the Fed will tighten too much, causing a recession. It also makes it hard for banks to make much money extending credit, because they typically lend for longer maturities while funding themselves […]
There were few places to hide last quarter. The S&P500 was –4.6% with nine of its eleven sectors losing. Energy sparkled at +39% and Utilities were +4.8%. Bonds were even worse, with the Bloomberg Aggregate –6.2%. Close to our hearts, pipelines (as defined by the American Energy Independence Index) were +24.5%. Low yields have underpinned […]
The Administration’s planned release of 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is borne of their frustration with high prices. Average crude prices have been higher under Biden than Trump, even after adjusting for the collapse during Covid (not Trump’s fault) and the jump following Russia’s invasion (not Biden’s […]
Europe’s realization that it needs a strategy to ensure energy security has provided a further boost to US natural gas stocks. Last week was especially good – NextDecade (NEXT) added another customer for their proposed Rio Grande Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export facility. By coincidence we had just interviewed Matthew Mott, SVP of their Next […]
This week’s podcast is an interview with Michael Mott, SVP at Next Carbon Solutions, a division of NextDecade. Following our podcast taping, NextDecade announced a 20 year Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) export agreement with Guangdong Energy, a Chinese utility. NextDecade stock soared as the whole US LNG sector responded positively to increasing demand, most notably […]
In this Audio file from a recent video, Simon Lack talks about the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the conflict between progressive climate policies and energy security
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the new outlook investors have on the energy sector
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses interesting comments from Elon Musk’s on the energy transition
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack explains why higher inflation is unlikely to be transitory
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack explains why the climate change debate needs more pragmatism
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack explains why reduced energy output is good for investors
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack explains how climate change boosted Kinder Morgan’s profits
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack explains why Democrats are good for energy investors
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses President Biden’s cancelation of the Keystone pipeline
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the outlook for fiscal policy under the Democrats
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the outlook following the Georgia senate races
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the irresponsible management of MLP closed end funds
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses who’s responsible for excessive student debt
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the growing trend towards pipeline buybacks
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses Energy Transfer’s reaction to the election.
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the critical role of natural gas in fighting climate change
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the impact of a President Biden on the energy sector
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the complimentary relationship between solar power and natural gas
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses how fossil fuel opponents have the wrong goals.
In this week’s podcast, Simon discusses the Dakota Access Pipeline Show Notes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3wq7wkgvYY 0:30-1:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGJXnfMlwH8 0:40-1:06 https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/judge-rejects-dakota-access-request-emergency-order-71650592
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack celebrates America’s Independence Sources Mentioned: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/ronald-reagan-morning-in-america-campaign-1984/2018/09/10/e42baddc-b525-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_video.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYiOUEjzZNs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynIW7CN08sc
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses some of the energy insights on recent earnings calls
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses Michael Moore’s latest documentary taking a shot at environmental extremists
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses why more widespread Coronavirus could help open things up Sources for facts cited: Road deaths Association for Safe international Road Travel https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ California infection rates https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328 German and Dutch infection rates https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the twin tragedy of climate extremists Clips in this podcast: Senator Elizabeth Warren Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez President Obama World Health Organization
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the energy markets during the current pandemic
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses energy writer Vaclav Smil Sources mentioned in podcast: Sources of energy https://ourworldindata.org/energy
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the impact of climate change on investment choices Sources mentioned in podcast: EIA electricity generation by source https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.phpFT article on China and emissions
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the loose definition of ESG Sources mentioned in podcast: CO2 Emissions https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/ FT article on China and emissions https://www.ft.com/content/2da15374-40e7-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses climate change news from Davos Sources mentioned in podcast: How many private jets flew to Davos in 2019? https://www.businessinsider.com/davos-by-the-numbers-billionaires-private-jets-security-bill-2020-1 OIL CEOs discuss emissions https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/1/22/oil-leaders-at-davos-debate-tougher-co-cuts-as-pressure-mounts
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses Blackstone’s recent client letter on sustainability
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses how investors should manage the risk of Middle East conflict
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the many positives about today’s human existence
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses the positive momentum for certain pipeline stocks heading in to the new year
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack discusses why MLPs may be at the start of a long rally Sources mentioned in podcast:
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack comments on sentiment among midstream energy infrastructure investors Sources mentioned in podcast: https://sl-advisors.com/the-coming-pipeline-cash-gusher
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack comments on how China’s coal use is expanding to offset global efforts against climate change Sources mentioned in podcast: https://www.ft.com/content/c1feee40-0add-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-21/aramco-faces-serious-risks-from-climate-change-report-says https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50490700
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack comments on how better corporate governance is helping returns
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack comments on phasing out coal Sources mentioned in podcast: NYTimes article
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack comments on developing countries inaction on climate change Sources mentioned in podcast: NYTimes article Miami Will Be Underwater Soon Polluted Oceans
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack complains about celebrities lecturing us on climate change Sources mentioned in podcast: Leonardo DiCaprio Katy Perry at Google Camp Julia Roberts, James Cameron and Al Gore If you missed our webinar last week, titled “Volumes, Cashflow and ESG”, here’s a link to a replay.
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about climate extremists and good news on US CO2 emissions Sources mentioned in podcast: Greta Thunberg in the Economist New York Post on where CO2 emissions are growing Extinction Rebellion video protesting on top of commuter train EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
The Misdirection of Extinction Rebellion In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about Extinction Rebellion’s misguided objectives
Review of Russell Gold’s Superpower In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about his conclusions after reading Russell Gold’s recent book, Superpower
Greta’s Grandstanding In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about Greta Thunberg’s UN speech and long term projections for energy use
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack is going to talk about the lesson we should take from the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure
Political Promises on Climate Change In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about the impractical promises from Democrat presidential candidates on climate change, and adds an update on the Blackstone-Tallgrass deal (6 minute mark).
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack is going to talk about the ethical gulf revealed by Blackstone’s offer to take Tallgrass private.
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about the difference in value seen by private and public market investors.
In this week’s podcast, I’m going to talk about the distortions showing up in bond markets.
In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about the growing concerns on trade and how we think events will unfold.
In Episode 5 of SL Advisors Talks Energy, Simon Lack talks about market volatility, valuations in midstream energy, and Canada’s new way to export its crude oil.
In Episode 4 of SL Advisors Talks Energy, Simon reports on 2Q19 pipeline earnings and provides his insights on the weeks's major stories in energy politics.
Although much of the press coverage focuses on solar and wind, the big story in energy is the growth in natural gas. In this podcast, Simon Lack reviews how natural gas growth is far more important than renewables.
In Episode 2 of SL Advisors Talks MLPs, Simon and Henry discusss the ins and outs of capital management and other musings about the energy sector.
In Episode 1 of SL Advisors Talks Energy, Simon and Henry discuss how the similarities of MLPs to hedge funds costs investors.