The Commodity Corner: Recent Episodes
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We provide concise information about agricultural markets so that you can start every day in the know.
The last couple weeks have seemed like an extreme roller coaster, keeping traders on their tippy-toes and witnessing irregular moves throughout the livestock complex. However, Tuesday’s trades looked to have calmed the market just a touch, seeing lighter moves and sensible closes.
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Monday proved to see little buyers in the fat cattle futures market, seeing a selloff that lasted most of the day. On the other hand though, cash fats ran up with good sales over the weekend, turning basis positive for the first time in a couple weeks. Feeder Cattle dropped sharply, looking to follow suit to their fatter cousins.
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With the USDA Cold Storage report being released Friday, shows that the release dates are back on track.
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Both Live Cattle and Lean Hog futures found closes near unchanged after an open that tricked many into thinking we were going to see a stiff selloff. Feeder Cattle were the bright spot, seeing a consistent close higher. February’s Cattle on Feed report came out Friday, showing a higher than expected number for cattle and calves on feed.
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As the title suggests, the market is all about hogs for now. After Wednesday’s limit up move in the front five contracts, hogs made another limit up move yesterday, this time to the expanded limit level of $4.50. Live and Feeder Cattle both saw completely green moves across the board as well, still being overshadowed by the pork side of the market.
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There was not a red contract to be seen yesterday. The bigger news, however, was that Lean Hogs saw another limit move higher Wednesday, coming just a day after they saw their first cooling off break in nearly two weeks.
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After the dust settled from the excitement of Event 232, the Dairy Complex is back to being mixed.
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Global Dairy Trade Event 232 pushed the Dairy Complex higher on Tuesday.
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Feeder Cattle closed the discounted gap that they had been seeing over the past several months on Tuesday by just a bit. Those contracts gained a consistent dollar more their fat cattle counterparts. Although Live Cattle saw consistent gains throughout the tradable contracts, the move didn’t hold a candle to the strong upward move by the feeders.
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The livestock industry overall saw bullish moves Monday, seeing only a few contracts in the cattle market close lower. Basis continues to weaken in both Feeder Cattle and Lean Hog futures, as the nearby contracts continue to outpace the cash market. Monday also saw large volatility in many calendar spreads.
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Lean Hog futures traded as high as they could on Friday, seeing contracts lock limit across the board, that limit being $3.00. This makes yet another day of a strengthening hog market, way outpacing cash hogs. Severe weather continues to leave its mark on the livestock market.
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The Dairy Complex edged higher with notable gains in some of the contracts.
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A historically strong and destructive storm began Wednesday morning and continued through last night, making a wide swath through the middle of the United States, up from South Dakota and Nebraska down to Texas. Winds, flooding, and blizzard like conditions have affected killing operations in many places, seeing cash prices plunge by over a dollar, as packers are unable to take in a normal inventory of cattle.
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The entire hog complex looked to be seeing another strong day across the board, before the front few contracts sold off hard, even seeing April drop below unchanged. Back half hogs, though, did see a close of major strength, widening the spread to over $20 between April and July. Cattle futures didn’t have much of a move either way, closing near unchanged more times than not.
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The Dairy Complex for the most part edged higher.
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Fat cattle futures were the laggards of the livestock contracts Tuesday, losing a good bit of ground on their previously strong March. Feeders followed suit, while hogs jumped higher for the third straight trading day.
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Lean Hog futures saw the second straight day of solid bullish moves, seeing a move above $0.80 in all contracts. Both cattle futures contracts struggled, seeing a bit of a selloff, feeders definitely feeling it more than fats.
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The Dairy Complex started off to a slow start this week.
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All livestock futures products saw a very consistent message on Friday: there is optimism. On the cattle side, both Live and Feeder Cattle picked up modest gains, keeping with the recent bullish feel throughout the market. Lean Hogs saw an outrageous move higher, nearly $3.00 higher in the front four contracts.
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With the Cold Storage report coming in the dairy complex struggled into the red.
With Cold Storage being released today natural cheese stocks saw a 1% increase month over month while butter stocks were up 18% month over month.
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In case you haven’t gotten tired of talking about Feeder Cattle, here we are again with them in the spotlight. Feeders yesterday saw some serious moves higher, however, instead of the recent rough patched they’ve endured. The move wasn’t reflected in the cash side however, still seeing cash trades below $140.
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The Dairy complex was mixed however, four the six contracts finished in the green when looking at the front month.
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Feeder Cattle hit day number two of tough losses, departing again from Live Cattle’s moves sideways. Cash looks to be the variable that continues to yank on the futures, pulling it downwards closer and closer to $140. Hogs caught the eye of sellers, seeing a decent drop throughout the contracts.
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There for a while, it looked as though Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle would move similarly, either higher or lower. Over the past few weeks, however, there has been a divergence from that pattern. Tuesday was an excellent example of that shift outside of correlation.
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The Dairy Complex was mainly down with Cash Settled Butter showing the most strength on Monday.
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Fat cattle futures sold off on a day that didn’t seem find many steadfast buyers. Cash cattle and beef cutouts both continue gaining, seeing strong demand. Both Feeder Cattle and Lena Hogs saw some green, but nothing substantial enough to throw money at them.
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The Dairy Complex fell into the red again with four of the six contracts only posting losses.
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Again, Feeder Cattle fell in the front end of the contracts, seeing a drastic carry market throughout the tradable contracts. Fat cattle basis looks to see shallow negative or even flat numbers, as cash rallies to catch up to futures. Hogs continue to have no sense of direction and no footing to stand on.
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With the roll of the contracts the front month saw a larger than usual estimated volume.
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Feeder Cattle futures were the weak link in the livestock chain Thursday, seeing a crisp drop in the early hours before closing mostly near a dollar lower. This comes as indexed feeder cattle drop below $140, a level not seen for some time. Lean Hogs and Live Cattle products each saw flat moves, both mostly within $0.50 of unchanged.
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Livestock products saw no exceptional moves into the close Wednesday, keeping the volume profile of the trading day condensed. One big piece of information to absorb is cash fat cattle are slowly converging to futures, coming only a few days prior to the settlement of the February contract.
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The livestock complex did not have a single loser Tuesday. The cattle futures contracts continued their bullish channel, some months continually seeing contract highs. Hogs finally turned around after a Monday that kept the negative pressure steady.
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As February draws near the end of the month we see the front month slowing down and remaining unchanged.
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Lean Hog futures again took a blow Monday, seeing a close lower of over a dollar in many of the contracts. If you’ll remember, last week created excess volatility throughout the hog complex, seeing limit down moves followed by nearly limit up moves before finally closing Friday relatively quiet. The cattle market showed no big moves Monday, stabilizing just under the $130 mark in the front two contracts.
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The Dairy complex remains mixed.
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After an exciting week to spectate the livestock futures market, Friday proved to take a bit of volatility out of the market, seeing closes of no more than a dollar away from unchanged in all products and all months. The USDA released the Cattle on Feed report as of January 1 which yielded no big surprises.
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Although the cattle complex saw lower prices in the front end contracts, there was still strength and a feeling of bullishness in the markets Thursday. Along with that, even Lean Hog futures made a day out of it, getting quite the boost after two days of torturing losses.
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China excites all markets with a proposal to buy $30 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products a year.
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Lean Hogs were the talk of the town once again Wednesday, with a sharp drop in the front half of the contracts. Cattle futures looked to stabilize near contract highs, but have yet to prove that they can push through the $130 mark. Harsh winter weather and lighter than average yields are most likely the causes for the higher prices.
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Government reports are finally catching up after the Government shutdown that took place between December and January.
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A tough week only got tougher for U.S. wheat futures, as prices faltered for the fourth straight session against lower global wheat prices.
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There was lots to talk about Tuesday after the long weekend, seeing an explosion of prices across the livestock complex. Live and Feeder Cattle both had exceptionally strong moves higher on the day, sticking with recent bullish sentiment. The hog complex fell through the basement Tuesday, limiting down in five of the tradable contracts.
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With the Global Dairy Trade, Event 230 taking place on Tuesday the Dairy Complex found some support settling in the green.
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Friday proved to show a week of little change in the livestock complex. After some swings throughout the week, the livestock products ended the week without substantial moves. USDA continues to push out data, but has yet to catch up to current events.
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The Dairy Complex struggles to regain footing with another day sliding towards the red.
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Dairy fell again on Thursday with Class III finding itself below $14.00 again this year.
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Both Live and Feeder Cattle futures dropped sharply to start the day, before rallying late into the close. Hogs dropped hard Thursday after showing possible strength at the beginning of the week.
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Cattle futures took the brunt of the lower trades on Wednesday, falling sharply, but not closing more than a dollar lower. Hogs couldn’t make it three days in a row higher, seeing mixed results yesterday.
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The Dairy Complex fell down after Tuesday’s bounce up.
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The large data release from USDA last Friday has done little to change market direction across the grain complex, as markets remain focused on the outcome of trade talks between the U.S. and China.
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The dairy complex showed mixed results for the most part with the exception being Class III.
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Hogs pieced together another bullish day, making it two days in a row of green. We haven’t seen hogs close two days in a row firmly higher in over a month. In that case, the day after the second up day was starkly lower. Cattle futures were mostly unchanged, holding their prices decently strong.
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Lean Hog futures finally climbed higher after a multiple week downtrend that pounded hogs across the board. The front and end months didn’t move much, but the middle months proved they had some footing. Cattle futures ended higher again, making some contract highs scattered throughout the complex
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The dairy complex seems to stay mixed with different fundamental drivers moving prices.
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After a choppy week in the livestock markets, both Live and Feeder Cattle made a point to finish strong. In both the nearbies, we saw a close of over a dollar higher. Hogs on the other hand, continue to carve a path lower, falling sharply into a steep bear pattern.
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The Dairy complex showed less price action on Friday with three of the front month contracts settling unchanged.
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Lean hogs continue to carve a pathway lower, falling steadily lower across the board. Both cattle futures products showed some strength early on, before settling back in near unchanged. Deliveries on February Live Cattle have shown a strong start over the last three days.
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Dairy remains mixed with Class IV still trading above Class III.
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Trade concerns took hold of the grain complex on Thursday, as doubts of a meeting between the U.S. and China weighed heavily on the markets and tripped technical selling.
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The Global dairy Trade Auction on Wednesday posted the largest gain of 5 consecutive auctions. The aggregate was up a total 6.7%.
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Livestock products were heavily weighted towards the downside when the dust settled on Wednesday. Feeder cattle led the charge lower, seeing many contracts close at least $0.50 weaker. Weather conditions are staying chilly across many parts of the United States, and yields are expected to stay decently weak.
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In a day described as “so slow even traders were reading the Wall Street Journal”, grain markets put in an extremely quiet day of trade. Anticipation of an unprecedented big data release from USDA on Friday was profoundly evident.
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The Dairy complex pushed further down on Tuesday.
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Tuesday proved to show renewed strength in front-month February after its First Notice day on Monday. The end of last week convinced some traders that we are headed lower, but after strong moves in the front end of contracts, there may be a slightly different sentiment now.
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The dairy complex fell back into the red on Monday with five out of the six contracts posting losses.
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In was another rangebound day of trading for grain markets on Monday, as markets closed on the plus side but held within tight trading ranges.
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The dairy complex started to push into the green with three of the six contracts only posting gains.
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Despite a positive close across all fronts on Friday, grain markets generally marked another sideways week of trade prior to USDA releasing important updates this coming Friday.
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Cattle futures went for a roller coaster ride Thursday, up all the way to the top of contract highs, then violently lower to close over a dollar weaker. In a day that sent fear through the market, it looked to be almost safer to stay in outright futures contracts rather than some calendar spreads, especially in hogs.
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The dairy complex continues to show mixed results at the end of January.
After the government shutdown, the USDA still has to catch up on missed reports which will take time to report and effect the market.
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Grains markets went on the defensive Thursday as technical selling prevailed, and traders found no reassurance of progress on trade talks with China.
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I am sure everyone is tired of hearing it, but livestock futures AGAIN traded sideways in a very quiet atmosphere. Cash trades looked to follow suit to the futures and stayed relatively unchanged, as the market awaits much needed information.
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The dairy complex showed mixed results as gains and losses were seen across the individual products. In addition, with Japan and the European Union’s trade agreement taking effect this Friday, it could create a large loss for the U.S. market share for years to come if the U.S. does not create a new trade deal in the future.
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A weaker U.S. dollar set a positive tone for the grain complex on Wednesday. Markets closed modestly higher on all fronts but held to defined ranges, as traders await input from trade talks and USDA numbers.
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Protein futures had a distinctly neutral day Tuesday, with no tradable contract closing more than $0.825 higher or lower from the day before. Market participants are continuing this sideways trend as we continue to await needed market and fundamental information.
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Overall the dairy complex pushed higher. However, Class III and Cash Settled Butter settled with no contracts in the red.
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With the exception of west coast white wheat, grain markets saw a generally defensive tone move through the complex on Tuesday. Traders await further input from the U.S. and China trade talks this week, along with fresh numbers from USDA over the next week.
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Livestock futures products, especially cattle, traded completely sideways Monday, staying in a recently carved out trading range. This sideways trade was surprising to many after the long awaited re-opening of the federal government. With Super Bowl Sunday approaching quickly, look for a pick up in retail store traffic for all kinds of meat products.
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Dairy showed mixed results after the strong gains that we saw Friday.
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Grain markets opened the week trading mostly sideways, as traders await release of important USDA numbers next week. With government operations resuming, USDA will release several key reports on February 8th, included quarterly stocks and winter wheat plantings.
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With the news of the Government reopening, the dairy complex pushed higher.
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President Trump announced the partial shutdown has come to an end Friday, saying congressional leadership had come to an agreement for three weeks, ending the longest government shutdown in history. This news came after the livestock market had closed, so nothing had the chance to be priced into the market.
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In a week that saw grain futures mark another modest upward move, traders welcomed news of at least a temporary reopening of the U.S. government with USDA updates to follow.
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Dairy slows its losses but not by much. Adding to the problem, the government shutdown continuing allows for no reports to be released.
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Cattle stayed relatively stable Thursday coming off an explosive up day in feeders the day before. All tradable contracts looked to hold strong. Hogs, for the second day in a row, were the laggards in the livestock world, seeing harsh losses in the front end. Economic data shows continued growth and strength among a dovish sentiment from the FED chief.
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It was a tight-knit day of trading for the grain markets on Thursday, as row crops held to narrow ranges and wheat moved modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling.
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The Dairy complex continues to slide further into the red with little to no sign of stopping.
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Live Cattle and Lean Hogs saw decent moves Wednesday, but for the most part couldn’t sustain a close over a dollar higher or lower. Feeder Cattle on the other hand rocketed higher seeing around a $2 move in the front two contracts.
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Wheat markets saw follow-through buying on Wednesday, while soybeans bounced and corn held mostly steady. With grain markets now lacking important USDA information for more than a month, private acreage forecasts provided direction.
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The dairy complex had a hard time recovering over the three-day weekend. With trading halted in celebration of Martin Luther King Jr. day on Monday, markets reopened Tuesday and continued their downward slide.
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The first day of this week’s cattle trade showed to be weaker than recent days, with both Feeder and Live Cattle trading over a dollar lower in most cases. Hogs lurched sideways to higher, with traders still not confident in the US filling the new Chinese pork demand stemming from their loss due to African Swine Fever.
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Speculation reigned supreme yet again in the grain markets on Tuesday, as reports of China intending to buy U.S. wheat as a part of trade negotiations fired-up the wheat sector.
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The dairy complex on Friday slid a bit further into the red but with the lightening of stocks in the international market may favor an increase in prices.
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After a week of choppy movement, fed cattle held their own Friday, while feeders continued to stay the weakest. Lean Hogs found green to end the week, seeming like a needle in a seemingly endless haystack of weak hog trading.
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Information flow, or lack thereof, was the primary driver in the grain markets last week. Traders remained intent on determining whether or not reported modifications to tariff restrictions with China did, in fact, take place.
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The dairy complex went further into the red Thursday with little to no gains across contracts.
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The rumor mill was active in the grain pits on Thursday, circulating stories of the U.S. modifying tariffs with China and spurring a positive day across the complex.
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Dairy futures took a slide into the red today following the GDT auction on Wednesday.
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Grains put in a relatively quiet day of trade on Wednesday, as markets generally remain range-bound and trade on limited information flows from USDA.
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The Global Dairy Trade auction showcased its fourth straight positive auction with the GDT Price Index jumping 4.2%. Meanwhile, futures showed mixed reactions across the board.
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