Indiacharts Insiders Club: Recent Episodes
Rohit Srivastava
26 years of Market Analysis comes from True Passion. I share the ''Truth About The Markets'' Indian Global Economic Cycles Macro Trends Currencies and Commodities
The markets have been through a lot of volatility but the light is clearly visible at the end of the tunnel. Do you see what I see? Lets discuss
The sell off in Indian equities has been joined by global equities. The US market is late in the business cycle where it often slips into a recession. The yield curve is steepening causing equities to decline. Bond yields are rising along with the dollar. Not the ideal mix of Macros for a bull market. The bear is thumping the table.
Nifty has broken out ahead of RBIs monetary policy setting meeting on Friday. The mood is of enthusiasm around potential rate cuts as the economy and earnings slow down in India. Will one rate cut really solve the problem though needs to be seen
State elections in India are generating hopes of rally. But earnings have disappointed big time. Can the RBI save the day with rate cuts? Will Donald Trump's trade wars overwhelm all markets? Lots of questions.
Nifty continues to fall the most in global markets. This week the US market which was rising after Donald Trump's election also gave up all the gains. Now rising bond yields and a rising dollar haunt the market. The coming week will set the tone for how markets unfold over the coming twelve months.
The first significant correction in Nifty since March 2023. The stock market is getting oversold in the short term. US elections are adding to the uncertainty. How should we position ourselves?
Nifty made a new all time high this week. The Indian stock market is struggling with the idea that it is overbought or Overvalued. On the other hand, liquidity remains strong and demand has exceeded new supply. Understand this delicate balance. The interest rate cycle is show a trend reversal.
A lot of fear exists around investing in banking stocks. The fear may have been created by the narrative around savings going into bank deposits. The solution offered was higher taxes. On the other hand interest rates are about to start going lower. How does all this add up for the stock market?
The Growing liquidity at a global level and with equity mutual funds in India will continue to fuel a rally in the Indian stock market. The Reflation trade 2.0 refers to wave 3 of the commodity Cycle kicking off where Gold is leading the way Copper has bottomed out and a slow and steady rise in oil will follow falling inflation. This inversion is important to understand.
From the yen carry trade to the risk of recession the markets are back to discounting lower interest rates and a soft landing. Indian stock market has remained subdued due to the resurgence of the Adani scandal. These negatives should be discounted and we should join global stocks higher soon because sentiment is too bearish
The crash in stock markets around the world is probably over. The yen carry trade unwind has capitulated and many markets are oversold. An outright recession is unlikely in the US. Interest rates are on a path lower worldwide that will stimulate growth and drive markets higher again. The dollar index is bearish and a weak dollar is bullish for Emerging market stocks and Bonds.
Sometimes people ask me, Rohit, are you sure as if to check if I am very bullish or just bullish or very bearish or just a little. The problem in my model is that I give equal weight to every trade. Equal position size for each stock and so on.So, in my communication, I am extremely bearish when bearish and extremely bullish when bullish. Stupid, right? Yes, for other people, it's nonsense, and sometimes people may consider me mad and dangerous. However, my model gives me the confidence to take action in that direction because that is how I create conviction. If you are not convinced about being bullish or bearish, how are you going to take the required actions?A lot of people struggle with action. Staying long despite losing money is common. But making it actionable requires conviction that something has changed. A strong opinion helps in decision-making, which is how it works for me. Writing about it every day is a commitment that I have made with Indiacharts Insiders that helps in the process of doing the work needed to change. You may not like it, and from the outside, it looks like I am a madman, but from the inside, it results in a decision-making process. Welcome to behavioural finance.
The VIX has seen the biggest decline ahead of a National Election in recent history. Markets have rallied in anticipation of a major win by the existing power at the centre. With so much going on in global markets, from macro to geopolitics, what should we expect from the stock market?
The Mania in the Indian stock market is real and visible. Investors should be aware of what type of market they are participating in and adjust risk accordingly. I continue to wait to see the air come out of this bubble and I think it is already deflating.
The mad frenzy for the Indian stock market now spreads from retail investors to college students and international investors. The flow of funds creates the best of fundamentals and the highest valuations in a long time. This brings risks to long-term returns that are not being considered. The frenzy may be creating a bubble that requires a one-time valuation correction.
It is easier said than done to ignore every crisis, but we have to weigh the odds and manage risk along the way. This is a game of liquidity that the FED started and every time it appears like the end game is here something changes.
After a nice rally from an oversold condition, it is time to think if Nifty is hitting a top and if world markets are done with expecting a rate-cutting cycle without an economic slowdown. How will markets respond to the opposing forces of inflation and deflation.
The stock market is starting to pay attention to bond yields and currency markets. The risk of a slowdown in economic activity due to high-interest rates is real. It also impacts valuations. How to navigate these markets? Listen to Rohit Srivastava
Markets are taking off into the G20 meet being held in India. But there is more than meets the eye in this bull market. Are we really overvalued as a market? Is there a bubble in mid and small-cap stocks? Should we worry about Global Macro? All of that answered by Rohit Srivastava in this Live interaction on Twitter Spaces
Twitter spaces by Indiacharts are an interactive way to get your market insights and ask Rohit Srivastava your doubts about market trends. Follow us on twitter to stay tuned for this or download the Indiacharts app
Rising bond yields have triggered a global risk off. US bond yields are back at crisis highs seen almost a year back. Bu the truth about the economic situation maybe very different. We cannot afford to go down this hole. Understand how to stay focussed on the trend in equities in this environment
A new event roils markets every week, but the pullback appears like a routine correction on charts. The RBI and inflation data will set the course going forward.
Nifty broke out above 19040 and is now moving towards 19900 as the bullish momentum fails to fade. Rising bond yields along with a falling dollar tell us that this is not a risk-off signal yet.
The Nifty bottomed out in March 2023 and started a new bull market phase. Let us understand how we stand after 2 months of a one way rally in stocks.
The extended move in Midcaps can entail a near term correction but the bull market is here to stay
Weekend With IndiaCharts is a full-length Video series discussing markets published each weekend on the Indiacharts website and App. This is the complementary audio version of Episode 103.
Differentiate between market reality and conspiracy theory and stay on the right side of market trends. Sentiment Money flow and positioning of market participants can give clues.
The FED and ECB decisions are behind us, and the last thing the markets are worrying about is the US banks. But equity markets in general are discounting all bad news and going ahead forward and you need to figure out why.
Traders are very focused from one week to the next and miss where the real money is in options trading. Investors need to brace for the near-term risks from earnings and US growth. Sentiment and Liquidity will help.
After three months of decline, the Nifty closed the month of March positive. Now a 10-day rally in the Nifty small-cap index is resulting in renewed optimism.
The most consensus view in the markets today is that the US heads into a recession later this year and drives down all markets. Is this a fair judgment of the situation, or can something change in this narrative? The risk to consensus opinions is that everyone is positioned for it.
Understand what the FED really wants. What has the recent actions to protect the US banking sector really done. Is QE back, what gold and BTC are telling us. This podcast is in Hindi.
The playbook behind previous market recessions like 2000 and 2008 is not at work. Recession? You need a new playbook and watch the moving parts as correlations change between the dollar bonds equities and commodities.
Find Out What Is Pushing The Markets [Hindi] To New Heights Stock Market Analysis by Rohit Srivastava
How several Macro narratives are changing and how to consider the counter forces of inflation and deflation in today's context
The stock markets are recovering from the possibility of a severe recession. Is it sustainable and what to watch out for.
Markets became oversold at the end of December and are slowly seeing a rally develop. For India ahead of Union budget 2023 its sets the stage for a pre-budget rally
Central banks around the world are following divergent economic and monetary policies. Thus creating big moves in forex markets, This is resulting in local inflation and high liquidity conditions that support equity prices. Understanding what the central banks want in the end, inflation or deflation needs to be deciphered. Follow the bond and currency markets closely for signals.
Nifty rallied in October on the back of short covering, but now the bulls need to back this rally if it has to go further. The real strength depends on a change in the narrative.
Global markets have been driven by the changing FED narrative but Nifty has a mind of its own. We need to find out which way the FED will pivot and when because that will drive the immediate market behaviour
The breakout in the bond and rupee markets has finally played spoilsport with the bulls' narratives on Dalal street. A reality check is in progress
The Stock market is gyrating both ways to the tune of 1000s of points, and it is important to future out which way we head next at Nifty 17900
The Nifty has been bouncing back after FIIs shorted it the most since the pandemic. How to read FII/Client data, Gold vs. Bitcoin as a currency hedge.
Nifty has started a bounce and the big question is whether it has legs, we discuss the technical picture and then the contra fundamental arguments for and against the market out there
The RBI raised rates today in line with street expectations. The market is moving slowly but may start pricing in the impact of these actions in the weeks to come. We are in a bear market and bear market rallies involve low volume. Rotation between stocks and sectors can confuse on the rollover process but the big picture remains clear.
The market declines are relentless, but we are also seeing sharp pullbacks in some stocks. But bounces in a bear market do not last and end up trapping more bulls. The most important decision is to believe that we are in a bear market, then we know what to do.
Nifty has had a change of heart as the US bubble continues to pop, and now RBI back off from accommodative policy.
The March bottom has been followed by a relentless rally that could have been taken on only with the right mindset.
The market are at a very historic juncture now and all eyes are on Putin.The FED is discounted.
Nifty is flat but stocks are taking off across the metals energy oil and gas sectors. This was a trade not to miss given the mood of the market and it provided you with an active hedge.
the volatility in the markets is always a function of uncertainty of how policy makers and governments will respond. Once markets are certain they can discount the future.
Ahead of the FED nifty was oversold, now it is prepared to discount the budget. Bonds Inflation and Commodities, the truth discussed.
The market ended a 3-day correction ahead of monthly expiration but is now positioned for a pre-budget rally. How till things shape out in the coming weeks?
From my recent youtube video on the impact of Oil and the Dollar on Indian stock markets and how they will shape 2022 as we head toward Budget 2022 - in Hindi
The bond-buying programs of most central banks continue at a record pace and ECB steps it up as the US and BOE step it down. What does all this mean for global markets and the Nifty going forward?
The Nifty has had a rough week but is far ahead of the curve on this correction than US equities and should start to lead again. 17250 is a key breakout point to watch in the weeks ahead.
The Fear of Inflation is back in the news but what is your inflation narrative. Are we going back to deflation or are we in a structural inflation period of growth plus inflation? And do you really believe stagflation is predictable when it rarely happens in any economy? A bull market in equities is then the only outcome
This is a bull market where every day is a crisis, but one man's crisis is another man's opportunity. The repricing of asset markets is the real bull market, creating wealth for everyone.
The Nifty is falling from an overbought condition near term and broke an important channel. What next?
Nifty keeps going higher pushing technical indicators to a very overbought condition, but should we worry? Asia breaks out and Banks kick in to aid the rally. Economic growth requires continuous stimulus and it is here and coming
This market is far from giving up on the Bullish trend. Punched by everything but holding steady. In fact many sectors are making strong gains while everyone waits for the dollar to confirm its original bear market. Waiting and not believing means missing out on the trends early. But nothing has changed for long term investors
Every day's move in the dollar does not have to correlate with equities. Every day's headline is either a Sentimental reaction or Actual News. Know the difference
Nifty faced a lot of headwinds this week from the Pandemic to the world markets but continues to march ahead albeit slowly
The stock market has hit a hurdle and slowed down because earnings take a hit from the lockdown this quarter. World markets have paused for clarity from the FED on its policy response to the higher inflation data. The next two days will then set the tone for how the relation trade plays out from here.
The Nifty hits an all-time high and the trend is likely to continue as investors start looking beyond the lockdown. Sector rotation has resulted in strong market internals that is driving the trend in new sectors especially evergy renewables and metals. Many of these companies are large caps and PSU stocks. Stay runed
Markets are faced with volatility every day nowadays from global indices the risk of inflation or rising cases in the pandemic. Where to invest in this environment. We discuss the key factors, the market's perception, and the strategy that we follow going forward.
The stock market has been hit but bad news from covid. In the short term will election results matter or RIL results matter? Liquidity is the only thing that remains abundant. Listen to the market
RBIs recent announcement of GSAP, means that real interest rates remain negative for the rest of the next financial year and that will continue to fuel investment demand for stocks meaning a higher Nifty. Economic growth is high on the agenda and inflation is being ignored as long as it is not in double digits. Financial repression is the path for all global central banks already and we have just joined the bandwagon
Nifty has not been able to take out the FEB high for over a month and that along with weak market internals is resulting in multiple inter-market divergences that are negative for the short term as we head into the end of the financial year 2021.
After another market crash scare the volatility is behind us and stability appears back in bond markets for now. Will Nifty go on to new highs, is gold going to bottom out and why fade the dollar bounces?
The bull market is not over and extending without major corrections or crashes defying gravity like never before. Even then the rotation and strength of individual sectors is changing the landscape and making it the best bull run that we have seen in a long time. Do not miss the opportunity of participating in a bubble from start to end.
The stock market has fallen ahead of the budget and is set up for a recovery given the oversold nature short term. The Union budget has never been welcomed by a market crash before but then isn't this supposed to be the best budget in 100 years.
Nifty is heading higher ahead of the budget and there is still no sign of change in momentum. Global cues have been supportive as well. The fear of a dollar spike has persisted but not yet been meaningful. What domestic event could cause jitters? The Union Budget?
Nifty had a Flash Crash this Monday but all is not lost the trend has not changed and Midcaps might lead from the front. Enjoy the Ride to New highs as sentiment remains in pre bubble territory. Fears around covid strains are real but the stimulus is more real.
NIFTY continues to trend higher along with stocks despite elevated levels of optimism. Staying with the trend gets difficult but we need a confirmation of trend reversal first.
It's been a raging rally in stocks but is it time to get cautious now? Divergences in momentum indicators between silver and copper and momentum itself are raising red flags now. Stay alert to possible changes in trend,
Nifty lost momentum this week as markets continued to ignore the risk of a second wave hitting home in India. Market participants have gone from being skeptics to completely embracing this rally and future economic growth. What does this wild mix lead to?
Nifty and Bank nifty are achieving their expected targets but participation is still not widespread. Liquidity should move toward midcaps and small caps sooner than later. the only risk to the markets is the resurgence of covid cases. Governments are proactive in taking decisions
The failure of a stimulus package to kick in, the uncertainty over US elections, and the return of Coronavirus cases combined bring down stock markets. But all is not lost as the long-term trend may be still bullish after the correction. Falling interest rates and fiscal policy will go a long way in providing the support needed in the post-crisis world.
Nifty capitulated into this month's expiration and US futures ended up with a short position. The dollar is now on every investor and trader's radar. This can work both ways in driving sentiment to extremes.
Markets crashed one after the other this week from one index to the next. But is this really a crash or just one more knee jerk reaction as in the past. A look at what indicators like the dollar copper and US banks are telling us.
Nifty does an English August. Trend goes flat even as stocks continue to surge driving a strong advance to decline ratio. Sector rotation may continue to keep the momentum in the market positive and should finally give a thrust to the Nifty next month.
The bull market triggered by value buying and liquidity is not over. The bold breakout to new highs is a precursor to the coming of inflation. The bubble starts
Equity market continue to mark higher against all odds. They are more optimistic than most traders on the street. Emerging market currencies continue to rise and the falling dollar kicks off a breakout in gold and silver.
The nifty is again at a key level where many indicators are diverging from price raising the risk of a near term pullback. Will it happen and should investors be worried. How retails is flocking back to the markets marking the start of a new trend in risk taking.
Nifty Ended the last two days down into expiry, the opposite of the last two. Bulls have had a reason to go long, what will shift them to the bear side? Key levels and factors to watch.
Nifty has been gong up since march and at every pause investors are worried about the next crash even as the lock-down is being lifted. The global narrative is shifting slowly from deflation to inflation and you need to adjust your investment approach accordingly.
The sentiment keeps getting worse but market performance is diverging in favor of new stocks v/s the old. Banks go out of favor and midcaps come back in favor based on near term market performance. What lies ahead in a post covid world?
The Economic stimulus did not stimulate markets but the economic reforms were path breaking irrespective. The business cycle will play its course but in the near term markets will ride on sentiment.
Nifty is at an inflection point but I sense a consensus that everyone wants it to crash to 6000. If wishes grow on trees. Markets will take its time to discount the future. Who is going to sell to crash the market? Consider the unknowns as well. How leveraged is the market? For every seller there is a buyer then who is buying. Are retail investors throwing out the bucket? Nothing is easy so why should this be.
NIFTY and equities bounced back around the world in April but Oil continued to decline. Is this divergence for real or just an engineered crisis? USDINR and other inter market divergences appear bullish for markets
Why is Nifty going up was the most asked question of the week. Sentiment remains very negative and that might change. The question to ask is how to spot the next turn lower. Gold prices turned lower and there could be more weakness ahead
Markets fall in A-B-C during corrections and wave B can be a deep retracement of wave A. So where are we today and how did previous bear markets workout? What does this tell us about the future path of the Nifty in the months ahead.
Nifty is in late stages of a sell off and will get ready for a larger bounce at some point of time. But can it be sustainable? What key factors to watch out for in the markets and the economy
Nifty is moving up along with global markets responding to stimulus announcements, including from our FM, but most are directed at backstopping the effects of the virus. Economic activity will still plunge and pick up only several quarters down the line.
Markets are falling with lower tops and bottoms and regulatory action so far has not changed the trend anywhere. The deflationary forces are far stronger than what is being thrown at it as we enter a supercycle degree bear market.
Nifty Bounces back. Is the panic selling over and the worst over. What signposts to watch out for?
India kicks off into its First Equity Economic Winter Bear Market. You have never seen this in your lifetime so prepare to be surprised. This is not about Corronavirus. Dollar up everything else down is what you get in a deflationary depression. India's first and most investors do not know what is hitting them.
Nifty is about to break the 11030 trend support that might change everything you are thinking about the market today. USDINR gives a lead indication that the market recognizes risk.
Global markets panic on the virus scare even as china holds up. Gold bonds and the dollar overshoot. How should you respond to this crisis?
Nifty Bloodbath Or Buying Opportunity, after a powerful negative reaction to the budget and not the Telecom AGR dues and Coronavirus the markets appear to be finding support on dips. But can it hold as news flow is unlikely to improve soon. Economic data will continue to worsen because of the impact of China on the world economy.
The Union Budget created a lot of nervousness but it was short lived. The broad market should give us real clues on where we are headed going forward. Global markets have already recovered from the Coronavirus shock.
Multiple headwinds surrounding the markets and the narrative keeps changing from bearish dollar to bullish dollar from up oil to down oil and now from IRAN to Coronavirus. Hopes run high on Budget 2020, how do you position yourself as investors and traders and which sectors are best.
The Economic winter is getting deep and widespread. Lower interest rates will not work if no one wants to lend. Credit contraction will equal an economic deflation unless the government intervenes big time. till then prepare for more pain in financial markets
World Equities are poised at crossroads. Nifty is ahead of an election season but may take cues from global volatility near term.
Nifty has remained in a tight range from the Elections to the Union Budget to RBI policy. Now discounted it is time for a clear trend to emerge. Seasonality kicks in.
The Union Budget left markets with little hope and all eyes are on the RBI to cut rates. Can they cut and will it have an impact? Are we in An Economic Depression?
In conversation with Investment Advisor Dipen Baro in Hindi to get the Market view in simple language for all. Why the Nifty is holding its own and will it continue to do so. What are the asset classes to focus our attention on for 2019 and much more.
Why did the Euro turn bullish after the French Elections was it a one off event? what it means for currency markets.