Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: What cognitive biases feel like from the inside, published by chaosmage on the LessWrong. Building on the recent SSC post Why Doctors Think They’re The Best... What it feels like for me How I see others who feel the same There is controversy on the subject but there shouldn't be because the side I am on is obviously right. They have taken one side in a debate that is unresolved for good reason that they are struggling to understand I have been studying this carefully They preferentially seek out conforming evidence The arguments for my side make obvious sense, they're almost boring. They're very ready to accept any and all arguments for their side. The arguments for the opposing side are contradictory, superficial, illogical or debunked. They dismiss arguments for the opposing side at the earliest opportunity. The people on the opposing side believe these arguments mostly because they are uninformed, have not thought about it enough or are being actively misled by people with bad motives. The flawed way they perceive the opposing side makes them confused about how anyone could be on that side. They resolve that confusion by making strong assumptions that can approach conspiracy theories. The scientific term for this mismatch is: confirmation bias What it feels like for me How I see others who feel the same My customers/friends/relationships love me, so I am good for them, so I am probably just generally good. They neglect the customers / friends / relationships that did not love them and have left, so they overestimate how good they are. When customers / friends / relationships switch to me, they tell horror stories of who I'm replacing for them, so I'm better than those. They don't see the people who are happy with who they have and therefore never become their customers / friends / relationships. The scientific term for this mismatch is: selection bias What it feels like for me How I see others who feel the same Although I am smart and friendly, people don't listen to me. Although they are smart and friendly, they are hard to understand. I have a deep understanding of the issue that people are too stupid or too disinterested to come to share. They are failing to communicate their understanding, or to give unambiguous evidence they even have it. This lack of being listened to affects several areas of my life but it is particularly jarring on topics that are very important to me. This bad communication affects all areas of their life, but on the unimportant ones they don't even understand that others don't understand them. The scientific term for this mismatch is: illusion of transparency What it feels like for me How I see others who feel the same I knew at the time this would not go as planned. They did not predict what was going to happen. The plan was bad and we should have known it was bad. They fail to appreciate how hard prediction is, so the mistake seems more obvious to them than it was. I knew it was bad, I just didn't say it, for good reasons (e.g. out of politeness or too much trust in those who made the bad plan) or because it is not my responsibility or because nobody listens to me anyway. In order to avoid blame for the seemingly obvious mistake, they are making up excuses. The scientific term for this mismatch is: hindsight bias What it feels like for me How I see others who feel the same I have a good intuition; even decisions I make based on insufficient information tend to turn out to be right. They tend to recall their own successes and forget their own failures, leading to an inflated sense of past success. I know early on how well certain projects are going to go or how well I will get along with certain people. They make self-fulfilling prophecies that directly influence how much effort they put into a project or relationship. Compared to other...