Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism, published by UnexpectedValues on the LessWrong. This is a linkpost for/ I. Here are some hypotheticals to consider, with a common theme. Note that in each case I’m asking what you would do, rather than what you should do. In the fall, COVID cases drop to 10% of their current level. You’re back to working/studying in person. You’re vaccinated, as is everyone else. Mask-wearing isn’t required, but 25% of your co-workers wear one anyway. Would you wear a mask too? What if 75% of your co-workers wear a mask? What if it’s literally everyone else? You’re having dinner with a party of 10 at a Chinese restaurant. Everyone else is using chop sticks. You know how to use chop sticks but prefer a fork. Do you ask for a fork? What if two other people are using a fork? (Inspired by Scout Mindset) For anyone who chose to have kids, or wants kids: if only 30% of adults had kids, would you still choose to have a kid? What if only 2% did? For anyone who doesn’t want kids: if 90% of adults had kids, would you? What if it were 99%? You join a group video call with 20 co-workers/classmates. Everyone except the presenter/teacher has their video turned off. Do you turn yours off too? What if everyone has their video on? Typically, what fraction of other participants need to have their video on for you to keep yours on? Your answers to these questions depend on your personal circumstances. How uncomfortable is wearing a mask? Do you find a fork slightly or significantly easier to use? How strong is your preference to have kids? Is there a Justin Bieber poster in your background? But — unless your answer to each question didn’t depend on the specific percentage — your decision also depends on others’ behavior. If everyone else has their video on, you’ll probably feel obligated to keep yours on too. Maybe you’ll move the poster first. This applies not just to behavior, but also to preferences, beliefs, and opinions. Figure 1: xkcd #185 So far, everything I’ve said is pretty obvious. But let’s throw a model at this observation and see if we can discover anything interesting. Let’s take our example with 20 people in a video call and line all of the participants up, from bottom to top, based on how many other people need to have their video on in order for them to choose to keep their video on. Figure 2: video chat, scenario 1 In this example, Alex and Betty will keep their video on no matter what; on the other hand, Riley, Steve, and Tara will turn their video off no matter what. Most others are somewhere in between: Isaac, for instance, will keep his video on if at least 7 of the other 19 participants have their video on. Take a moment to think about what will happen in this call. As a hint, you might want to consider the diagonal line I’ve drawn on the chart. The answer is that nine participants — Alex through Isaac — will have their video on, and the rest will have it off. Why? Well, if everyone has their video on at the start, then Riley, Steve and Tara will turn their video off right away. A cascade will follow: Quinn and Pete, who are only willing to have their video on if everyone else has theirs on, will turn their video off. And so on — up through Jenny. Now Alex through Isaac (but no one else) will have their video on. But at this point the cascade stops: Isaac is happy to keep his video on, as is everyone else. This would also be the end state if everyone started with their video off (assuming there’s no status quo bias). Alex and Betty would turn their video on, Charlie and Diana would follow, and so on, up through Isaac. Indeed, no matter who has their camera on at the start, this will be the end state. Let’s look at a different example. Figure 3: video chat, scenario 2 Now, Alex is willing to keep his video on so long as at least...