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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: 6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction, published by Chris Leong on April 12, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Metaculus now predicts that the first AGI will become publicly known in 2036. This is a massive update - 6 years faster than previous estimates. I expect this update is based on recent papers. It suggests that it is important to be prepared for short timelines, such as by accelerating alignment efforts in so far as this is possible. Some people may feel that the criteria listed aren’t quite what is typically meant by AGI and they have a point. At the same time, I expect this is the result of some objective criteria being needed for this kinds of competitions. In any case, if there was an AI that achieved this bar, then the implications of this would surely be immense. Here are four papers listed in a recent Less Wrong post by someone anonymous a, b, c, d. Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.