The Texas Hill Country flood that killed 139 people was described as a natural disaster. But after digging through state legislative hearings and Congress’s oversight of FEMA, I found something else: many of the deadliest consequences weren’t just caused by the weather. They were the result of policy choices. This episode follows the disaster from the storm itself to the way Congress prepares—or fails to prepare—the United States for the floods to come.
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Background SourcesRecommended Congressional Dish EpisodesCD155: FirstNet Empowers AT&T
Flood Maps“Under water: How FEMA’s outdated flood maps incentivize property owners to take risks.” Evan Bush. August 12, 2025. NBC News.
“Understand the differences between FEMA flood zones.” First Street.
Trump’s Attempts to Dismantle FEMA“After Texas floods, questions about FEMA’s future loom large.” Laura Strickler et al. July 9, 2025. NBC News.
“Trump floats overhauling or eliminating FEMA while touring hurricane damage in North Carolina.” Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner et al. January 24, 2025. NBC News.
Flood MitigationBuilding Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
BillsH.R.4774 – Fix Our Flooded Basements Act of 2025 Audio SourcesMitigation and Multiple Loss Properties: Factors Influencing the High Cost of FloodingHouse Committee on Financial Services
March 26, 2026
Watch on YouTube
Witnesses:
Clips13:00 Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE):
The NFIP is managed by FEMA. It is primarily funded through premiums from policyholders, but premiums charged by the program often do not fully reflect the real flood risk. When premiums from the National Flood Insurance Fund are insufficient to pay claims, the program has authority to borrow from the Treasury. For most of its history, the NFIP borrowed relatively little from the Treasury. However, after a very destructive hurricane season in 2005, Congress increased the borrowing limit for the program to roughly $20 billion to pay claims. Then, after Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Congress increased the borrowing limit again to $30.425 billion. The NFIP has continued to accrue debt in the years that have followed. Most recently, the program borrowed $2 billion in additional funds in February 2025 bringing the program’s current debt to $22.525 billion. That leaves just $7.9 billion more in borrowing authority before the program has reached its borrowing cap.
14:20 Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE):
Multiple loss properties are properties that flood repeatedly, often costing NFIP and taxpayers significant money. According to the GAO, as of 2021, unmitigated multiple loss properties made up about 2.5% of all NFIP policies, but 48% of NFIP claims. We can find some public reporting that tells the story of these properties that repeatedly flood. For example, the Washington Post reported in 2024 that one property in Virginia Beach has flooded an astounding 52 times, including four floods in 2020, two in 2021. The property received payments totaling around $784,000 from the program.
15:30 Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE):
Methods of mitigation can vary, but in general, there are four main strategies for mitigating risk: acquisition, elevation, relocation, flood proofing. All of these mitigation tactics can be used to limit flood losses in areas that are otherwise prone to flooding.
25:55 Alicia Puente Cackley:
FEMA has primarily mitigated flood risk using acquisitions, that is, a state or local government purchasing land and structures that flooded from willing sellers and demolishing the structure.
26:05 Alicia Puente Cackley:
Congress and FEMA could improve the use of property acquisitions to reduce repetitive loss properties by addressing some key challenges. We identified challenges related to the acquisition process, as well as options to improve the process. For example, one major challenge is the length and complexity of the acquisition process. According to FEMA and stakeholders we interviewed, it typically takes two to three years to plan a project, apply for and receive a grant, and then purchase and demolish high-risk properties. Another challenge is limited state and community capacity. The complex acquisition process is particularly challenging for communities that lack dedicated grant managers or technical staff, and of course, there are financial challenges. The non-federal cost share for an acquisition project, typically 25% of project costs, can deter community and homeowner participation.
27:20 Alicia Puente Cackley:
Turning to the topic of NFIP’s fiscal exposure, GAO has reported several times, most recently in 2023, about the unsound nature of the NFIP program, because current premium rates do not fully reflect a given property’s risk of flooding. As a result, there is a shortfall between the premiums the program collects and the full risk premiums that would need to be collected to keep the program solvent.
27:45 Alicia Puente Cackley:
In 2023, we estimated that 66% of premiums were not at full risk. We calculated that this would result in a total premium shortfall of $26.7 billion by 2037. To address this, we recommended that Congress authorize and fund means-based assistance for NFIP policyholders unable to afford their full risk premiums, rather than limiting how much premiums can increase each year, among other things. This approach would make the program more transparent and would help address the program shortfall.
28:15 Alicia Puente Cackley:
Targeting mitigation efforts to those properties with the most heavily discounted premiums could also help address NFIP fiscal exposure. These will disproportionately be repetitive loss properties, as they generally have greater risk and higher full risk premiums. Mitigating these properties would help NFIP achieve actuarial soundness sooner. Moreover, other mitigation activities, such as elevating, flood proofing, or relocating repetitive lost properties, would reduce their risk of flooding and therefore their full risk premium, making those premiums more affordable for homeowners.
30:20 Diane Horn:
There is significant evidence that flood risk from all types of flooding is increasing. The NOAA billion dollar database shows that the costs associated with floods increased from $19 billion in the 1980s to $74 billion in the 2010s. This is due to a number of factors: population growth in disaster-prone areas, rising property values in these areas, inflation and increasing building costs, inadequate building codes, and climatological changes in weather patterns and storm intensities. Congress has increased mitigation funding in recent years, particularly since 2018. There has been increased funding both for the National Flood Insurance Program mitigation activities, and for the other FEMA hazard mitigation programs. However, this increase in mitigation funding is being outpaced by the factors that caused increased flood risk.
35:35 Steve Ellis:
As of February of last year, the NFIP was $22.5 billion dollars in debt to the Treasury, and is expected to continue losing money. That doesn’t include $16 billion in debt that was forgiven in 2017. In total, taxpayers have borne roughly $40 billion in costs.
36:15 Steve Ellis:
Buyouts are slow or incomplete, leaving homeowners feeling trapped. There is little planning for inevitable floods and mitigation, and buyouts are done one property at a time, instead of entire neighborhoods.
38:10 Steve Ellis:
We also need to learn from failure. When there’s a relatively small aviation accident, the NTSB investigates and issues recommendations, but after major disasters, despite billions of dollars in federal spending, we don’t have a comparable process. A National Disaster Safety Board or similar independent process could provide fact-based analysis and recommendations of what went wrong and how it can be fixed, or what went right and can be applied elsewhere.
40:00 Joel Scata:
Since the NFIP was created in 1968, nearly 250,000 properties have flooded repeatedly, and that number grows every single year. We call these repetitive loss properties. They represent some of the most flood-prone homes in our country, and yet only 16% of them have ever received any mitigation assistance. The problem is even worse for the most severely affected homes, what we call severe repetitive loss properties, or SRLPs. These homes have floated an average of five times each. They make up less than 1% of all NFIP policies, but they’ve accounted for over 10% of all claim payments in the program’s history. Between 2018 and 2022 alone, the number of SRLPS grew by more than 7,000 but only 630 — I’ll repeat that: only 630 — received help to reduce their flood risk.
41:45 Joel Scata:
Over 63,000 repeatedly flooded properties sit outside FEMA’s mapped high-risk areas. FEMA’s current maps reflect the past, not the future. They don’t account for changing development patterns, nor changing rainfall patterns. Congress should require FEMA to incorporate future flood conditions. Congress should also require FEMA to map with greater accuracy. FEMA flood maps represent the 1% annual chance flood at the 50th percentile confidence, meaning there’s a 50% chance that flooding could occur beyond that so-called 100 year flood plain. That’s the flip of a coin. We are making development decisions based on the flip of a coin. When 40% of NFIP claims come from properties outside the map flood zone, we clearly have a mapping problem.
42:25 Joel Scata:
The minimum floodplain development standards haven’t been comprehensively updated since the 1970s. Meanwhile, 18% of our most severely flood damaged properties were built after these standards were adopted, meaning they were supposed to be safer, but they’re not. We need higher free board requirements, stronger standards for critical infrastructure, and rules that reflect the science of what’s coming, not what’s already happened.
42:55 Joel Scata:
Right now, in many states, a seller can hand you the keys to a home that has flooded multiple times and never say a word. A study found that home buyers of previously flooded homes can expect to face on average more than $55,000 in flood damages over the course of a 30 year mortgage. That’s not a footnote, that’s a financial catastrophe waiting to happen to most families. FEMA itself has said that states with strong flood disclosure laws have higher rates with flood insurance. Congress should make flood disclosure a condition of participating in the NFIP.
1:05:15 Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE):
I do want to renew my interest in working on an NFIP bill with the ranking member, as it would be appropriately called Flood Waters.
1:44:00 Diane Horn:
Congress directed that certain policies would be at less than full risk-based rate, so under risk rating 2.0, the new pricing policy, people are moving towards their full risk-base. FEMA refers to this as the glide path. But Congress has actually put a limit on how much their premiums can be increased each year. So for primary residences, they can only be increased at 18% per year. For severe repetitive loss, the ones that we’ve been talking about, it could be increased at 25% per year. But what we don’t know is for an individual property, how long that glide path is. So, GAO, I think, said that it was going to be something like 2037 before 95% of policies were paying the full risk-based rate.
1:48:30 Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI):
We have Fix Our Flooded Basements Act. One, It’s educating my colleagues that this is actually factually true, that basements are not covered unless there’s a bedroom down there.
1:49:05 Joel Scata:
Basements usually are not covered by NFIP policies.
1:49:10 Joel Scata:
I think one of the things that we, or FEMA, could do to address this issue is to increase the amount of money that’s provided through increased cost of compliance funding. So, ICC funding is triggered when there’s a flood that damages more than 50% of the value of a home. Right now, a homeowner who gets that type of damage only gets about $30,000. That’s far less than what it costs to actually mitigate a home nowadays. It didn’t stay in line with inflation, and it’s not even helpful when they do get that money, because they often can’t afford to make up for the rest of that cost.
1:51:00 Joel Scata:
I think some of the ways that FEMA has been undermined are through just reductions in hazard mitigation programs. It’s good to see that BRIC (Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities) is back up and running, that is essential for reducing risk. I’d also like to see hazard mitigation grant programs be more utilized. A lot of the buyouts are through that program.
2:28:30 Diane Horn:
The maps don’t actually show every source of risk, so the existing maps show the risk from rivers and flooding from rivers and flooding from the sea. It does not show the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, and we’ve seen that. I think certainly starting with the Baton Rouge floods in 2016, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Helene. We’ve seen a lot of instances where the flooding has come from heavy rainfall, and that’s currently not included on the maps. It is included in the new pricing from Risk Reading 2.0 but if people still rely on the maps to know their risk, that’s not going to be something that becomes available. Again, as many people have said, there needs to be more education about the flood risk to individual properties.
Oversight Hearing – National Weather ServiceHouse Appropriations Committee
March 25, 2026
Watch on YouTube
Witness:
Taylor Jordan, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction, National Weather Service
Clips10:15 Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY):
As climate change continues to impact our nation and planet, severe weather outbreaks are becoming increasingly frequent. That’s why it was extremely concerning to see the weather service lose roughly 600 employees, including many meteorologists, in the early months of the Trump administration last year, specifically as a result of the firings and early retirements engineered by Elon Musk and his DOGE team. This was confirmed after Secretary Lutnick falsely told this subcommittee last year that no meteorologists were amongst the hundreds of employees fired. Local weather forecast offices were greatly stressed and understaffed across the country. Numerous offices were forced to limit weather balloon launches due to limited staffing. These are devices that measure temperature, pressure, and relative humidity at high altitudes. At one point last year, 45% of local weather forecast offices had vacancy rates of 20% or more, the threshold for critical under staffing, while eight offices were missing more than 35% of their staff. 16 offices were missing their warning coordination meteorologist, the person responsible for making sure emergency managers and the public know what to do when emergency and disaster strikes.
12:25 Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY):
Despite the difficulties caused by the staffing shortages, the Trump administration refused to allow for the back filling of critical frontline National Weather Service meteorologists and other staff until last August, when the administration finally recognized the problem it had created and allowed the weather service to begin back filling some vacant positions at local weather forecast offices. Further compounding these problems, the Trump administration has required that every contract decision greater than $100,000 must first go to the office of Secretary Lutnick for his approval. This has caused bottlenecks and delayed critical missions impacting the National Weather Service. For example, a backbone information technology system used by the Weather Service came within hours of shutting down. A local weather forecast office in Kentucky utilized portable toilets in its parking lot during a major storm due to an inability to get permission to hire a plumber, and these are just two examples.
15:15 Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY):
Last year, the Trump administration disbanded the author team and dismissed hundreds of scientists working on the sixth national climate assessment, a legally mandated report that is used to help shape environmental rules, legislation, and infrastructure projects. The administration is currently pushing to eliminate the endangerment finding, which, since 2009, has underpinned the federal government’s ability to fight climate change.
26:40 Taylor Jordan:
First, the weather service is modernizing our weather alert systems, including NOAA Weather Radio, avoiding approximately $12 million per year in maintenance cost increases.
26:45 Taylor Jordan:
We have also expanded our flood inundation mapping technology across the United States, saving countless lives during severe weather events.
26:55 Taylor Jordan:
We have also embraced artificial intelligence. We recently announced the launch of a new suite of operational AI-driven global weather prediction models. These new models are faster, more efficient, and use a fraction of the computational resources compared to legacy models. NOAA is the first organization in the world to launch this hybrid grand ensemble model.
27:25 Taylor Jordan:
We were excited to announce that we are moving the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, known as AWIPS, to the cloud, a critical tool for our weather forecasters. These investments will give forecasters efficient, secure, and remote access to provide support wherever and whenever severe weather threatens. A new, nimble, flexible mobile weather service needs its operations to match.
27:50 Taylor Jordan:
We are also updating the core physics in our next generation modeling architecture. A new dynamical core to NOAA’s weather model, supported by the broader weather enterprise, provides the path towards substantial weather forecast improvement. Into this model, we will continue to feed data from the many observing networks and systems we operate.
28:15 Taylor Jordan:
We are also leveraging new partnerships through our Commercial Data Program, which includes the National Mesonet Program and the Aircraft-Based Observation Program.
28:20 Taylor Jordan:
We will also design and deploy the next generation of weather surveillance radar technology, our Radar Next program. This next generation of radars will ensure continuity of operations, expand coverage, and improve performance. It will enable forecasters to improve lead times and accuracy of warnings for high-impact weather events. This work will improve our data and enable high-resolution modeling across the globe, both of which are critical to our efforts to advance US numerical weather prediction.
29:30 Taylor Jordan:
The Weather Service is also taking steps to implement a reorganization in order to better support the needs of our nation.
33:15 Taylor Jordan:
So the Weather Service is actively hiring, and we have been approved to hire several hundred new forecasters, and we have already onboarded several hundred new forecasters. We are also giving those forecasters new tools through our new AWIPS to the Cloud initiative, which will bring the foundational technology that forecasters use every day to create those weather forecasts into the cloud, and that allows them to work with others, work with nearby weather forecast offices, and to also embed directly with state and local emergency managers.
35:00 Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY):
Given the persistent challenges rural communities like mine in Kentucky face in receiving timely and accurate warnings, I’d like to focus on the gaps that still exist across the country in radar. How is the weather service addressing those gaps in radar and observational coverage, particularly in central Appalachia and other rural regions?
Taylor Jordan:
Thank you for the question. NOAA is working to better understand our next radar architecture. We currently have the NEXRAD system in place that has radars across the country, and we know that in the next decade or so those radars will reach the end of their life, and we’ll need to recapitalize those systems. The architecture of the future will have an expanded network and coverage through partnership with the commercial sector, of which now there are multiple commercial companies that provide radar as a service. So we’re looking to expand coverage between our larger government-based radars to allow for greater coverage of weather events for watches and warnings.
38:35 Taylor Jordan:
We’re approved to hire over 400 already new weather forecast office forecasters across the country. We have already sent final job offers to over 200 of them, and we have almost 200 already on board.
39:00 Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY):
You mentioned the AWIPS transferring to the cloud. When will that be ready? What is the timeline on that?
Taylor Jordan:
That’s a great question. So I believe the work will continue over the next 12 to 18 months for the AWIP system to the cloud. In the meantime, we will continue to operate the system as is, as we work to have a parallel path, and then transition over to the new system.
39:50 Taylor Jordan:
All weather forecast offices across the country are operating 24/7.
43:55 Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK):
Can you briefly describe some of the challenges facing the current NEXRAD weather radar system, including, as you’ve mentioned before, and I think my colleagues have as well, gaps in surveillance coverage? What are the efforts underway to try and close those sites?
Taylor Jordan:
Absolutely, so we are doing an analysis of alternatives to look at what the future of that architecture and that network looks like. The existing network, called our NEXRAD system, is quite old. It’s decades old at this time, and we have done service life extensions on them over the last decade or so, but at a certain point they will reach the end of their lives. So we are actively working internally on what the future program looks like, and the landscape is different than when we originally did our current NEXRAD system. There are commercial companies who have smaller radars who can play in between our larger radars to cover those gaps that currently we do not, we have not done in the current times. We look forward to working on that analysis, and then bringing that to Congress in the future.
45:10 Taylor Jordan:
We expect the current NEXRAD system in place to reach its end of its life in the next decade or so, so we will need to begin in the coming years to plan for the continuity of those critical data sources.
47:30 Taylor Jordan:
We have approval through OPM to hire several hundred, I think it’s over 400 new forecasters. We have already given final offers to over 200 of them, and of that 200, 190 have already been onboarded. So we’re making tremendous progress to staff up, to adequately staff all of the weather forecast offices.
48:00 Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-MD):
People who had been laid off, would they be first in line for being rehired for positions that they were removed from?
Taylor Jordan:
That’s a great question. I actually will need to get back to you on that. I’m not entirely sure of the process.
52:25 Taylor Jordan:
Our satellites are extremely important, because they provide over 90% of the data for our weather models. Not a lot of folks know that, but we ingest a lot of different types of data from ground-based sensors, aircraft, satellites. 90% of the data that goes into our weather model comes from satellites. So, working with external partners like Swery is extremely important to us.
53:25 Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX):
In July of 2025, the Texas Hill Country was hit by devastating floods that claimed 135 lives, including children at Camp Mystic. Catastrophic flood events are not a one-time event, they can happen again and often do. What steps has the National Weather Service taken since the Hill Country floods to improve the the timeliness of flash flood watches and warnings?
Taylor Jordan:
Thank you for the question. And in addition to the hiring that we talked about to ensure that weather forecast offices are adequately staffed, as I said in my my opening statement, we’re also rolling out new products for flood inundation mapping to ensure that the communities and the public has access to the latest up-to-date information for the threat of flooding specifically.
1:05:15 Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA):
Turning to radar coverage maps, that’s been mentioned a little bit here. Particularly in rural and mountainous areas in Northeast Georgia, my district, the National Weather Service Doppler radar network leaves gaps in covered areas across rural parts of my district, largely due to terrain challenges and the distance from existing radar sites. These gaps can degrade situational awareness and make it more difficult to accurately detect and predict severe weather. At the same time, the private sector and state government entities have demonstrated a growing ability to help close those gaps. For example, in 2022 researchers at the University of Georgia and the Georgia Institute of Technology partnered to deploy a new radar system in Gwinnett County to address the well-documented coverage gap in northeast Georgia. I believe it’s called GAWX, is the radar in Gwinnett County. You spoke a little bit about this earlier in your responses.
1:09:35 Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA):
In the DOGE firing – remember what the name of DOGE is, Department of Government Efficiency – how many people got fired as a result of them coming in to the Weather Service?
Taylor Jordan:
So, I believe through the DRP (Deferred Resignation Program) and the VERA (Voluntary Early Retirement Authority), and the VSIP (Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment) process, I believe roughly a little over 500, close to 600, people took early retirement.
1:11:20 Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA):
In terms of hiring, troubling to me was some of the things that we see in the applications, and what people have to speak to as they are applying for some of these positions. For example, the application for a hydrologist opening asked applicants to identify one or two of President Trump’s executive orders that are “significant to them” and explain how they would help implement them at hire if hired. What does that have to do with the person’s ability to be a hydrologist?
Taylor Jordan:
I’m sorry that I’m not familiar with the OPM guidelines on what is in a hiring application. I was unaware.
Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA):
You have some role in hiring?
Taylor Jordan:
Yes, ma’am,
Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA):
Could you take a look at the applications and what is asked of applicants, and would you maybe assure us that you would remove such questioning that asks for a political requirement, a loyalty requirement, rather than exactly what this person brings in terms of the science?
Taylor Jordan:
Thank you. I’m happy to work with you and your staff.
Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA):
I thank you.
1:14:45 Taylor Jordan:
For the Radar Next program we are working on analysis of alternatives internally to NOAA, because the landscape has changed. We are not working on just the exact same government-built radar system. We are blessed with a robust weather and water enterprise in America with commercial companies that can play a role in how we meet our mission, so we are looking at the architecture and running different analyzes on what is the correct mix of a government system versus a gap filler in between two different radars, and look forward to working on that analysis, and then briefing it over to Congress as soon as we can.
1:17:30 Taylor Jordan:
NOAA produces and works on over 200 different environmental models, where other competitors, like the European Center, focuses on one model, so our eyes are on a lot of different models, and we need to look at ways in which we can consolidate models in an appropriate way.
1:19:20 Taylor Jordan:
For tornadoes and many severe weather events, really, the forecast starts with with math. It starts with our weather model, and it starts with the observations that we feed into it. We need to ensure at NOAA that we recapitalize the systems, including our radar technologies, including our weather balloons, and work with new partnerships, because there are even commercial companies who can provide weather balloons and ensure that we have the recipe, the ingredients that I mentioned before that go into a weather model. Make sure that we have all of those satellites play a huge role in that. I mentioned that 90% of the data that goes into a weather model comes from satellites. And then we need to focus on the model. The model is very important, and that is one of the tools that forecasters use.
1:20:25 Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN):
You had talked about weather balloons. Are weather balloons commercialized, are they privatized, or what is the current status of that operation?
Taylor Jordan:
That’s a great question. So, to say concisely, every weather forecast office is launching two weather balloons a day, and we are also buying additional commercial weather data balloon through our national Mesonet and commercial data programs.
1:21:15 Taylor Jordan:
At the moment, for AI, we are looking at AI, and we have rolled out an AI model, but we also have a traditional physics-based model that is not with AI, and that is our traditional Global Forecast System (GFS). So, we’re ensuring that we have the continuation of our existing model, which does not have AI in it, and then we have a parallel model that does have AI in it to ensure that we are understanding AI, that we are utilizing best practices for AI, and that we can roll out and still have an accurate forecast, because sometimes the math behind an AI model is different than a physics-based model.
1:25:20 Rep. Mark Alford (R-MO):
There was some talk last year about moving to more centralized forecasting centers. Has that changed? How many local weather forecast offices are there, and are there any in danger of closing?
Taylor Jordan:
Thank you for the question, sir. We have no plans to close weather forecast offices at this time.
1:26:25 Taylor Jordan:
So we haven’t made those decisions yet on what the staffing looks like, but we are not, we’re not changing staffing levels based on the reorganization, we are not changing offices, and we are not asking people to move.
Joint HearingTexas State Senate Select Committee on Disaster Preparedness and Flooding and Texas State House Select Committee on Disaster Preparedness and Flooding
July 23, 2025
Witnesses:
Pat Calvin, then Meteorologist, KHOU 11 Houston
Chief Nim Kidd, Chief, Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM)
Freeman Martin, Director, Texas Department of Public Safety
Clips13:50 Pat Calvin:
We’re going to start first with why this prolific flooding event happened, and it all has to do with tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Barry. And you might be asking yourself, What tropical storm? We didn’t have anything make landfall here in Texas, and that’s correct. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Gulf last week and ended up making landfall in northern Mexico. That moisture then moved up into Texas and interacted with a slow-moving batch of storms over the middle of the state. Those two combined and pretty much happened over one of the worst parts of the state when it comes to flash flooding events, the hill country, where you have all of these ravines and these creeks and these streams that kind of empty into bigger rivers, and that terrain helps to focus moisture and water all into one spot. When you’ve got heavy training thunderstorms that occur in these areas, flash flooding becomes a huge problem.
15:25 Pat Calvin:
When you’ve got low-level tropical moisture that comes onshore, it has to go somewhere, and it can’t go up and over the mountains, and so it starts to stream up north, and so you take all of that tropical moisture from this dissipating storm and you funnel it northward. Now, typically this will lead to maybe a couple of days of unsettled weather, more clouds, a couple showers for us here in South Texas. What made this situation unique was the presence of what’s known as a mesoscale convective vortex. It’s basically a mini area of low pressure, and it was very slow moving, pretty much stationary over central Texas. Now forecasters knew that this MCV, mesoscale convective vortex, was going to be over the area about 12 to 18 hours before this event unfolded, and that will go to the timeline. We’ll talk about that in just a second, but once they saw this feature and they saw the interaction that was happening with that tropical moisture, that’s when the first alarm bell started to go off.
17:30 Pat Calvin:
As the forecast started to become a little more clear, as more high resolution model data, which is what forecasters used to develop these forecasts, became more consistent, that’s when they put out a special discussion about a flash flooding threat. So the messaging started to become a little more specific Thursday evening. Now we get into the overnight hours, and just after midnight, so 1am Friday, July 4, is when thunderstorms begin to develop right over Kerr County, and that’s when the first flash flood warning is issued. This is a warning that is issued for stationary training heavy thunderstorms that are producing a tremendous amount of rainfall in a localized area that can lead to the development of rapidly rising floodwaters. Three hours later, at 4:03 in the morning, that is when that flash flood warning is upgraded to a rare flash flood emergency. Flash flood emergencies are reserved for the most significant types of flash flooding events. This is when there is an imminent ongoing threat to life and property, and if you don’t leave, your life is in danger. And so, flash flood warnings are common through the Hill Country. Flash flood emergencies are that step above. That’s a forecaster’s way of saying this is a critical situation.
20:25 Pat Calvin:
2:30 in the morning — remember that first flash flood warning came out just after 1am and this is the reason why. There was one lone thunderstorm right over the north and south fork of the Guadalupe River, and that’s what prompted the initial flooding. Then you get the MCV coming in on top of that, notice the spin there, and that’s just kind of enhancing everything, enhancing thunderstorms, enhancing rainfall rates. It was the absolute perfect storm, and the problem that this presents for forecasters on TV, at the government level, in the private sector, across the board, is that this is really pushing the science of meteorology to the limit, we are not at a point yet where we can pinpoint exactly where these thunderstorms are going to pop up and where that flooding is going to happen.
21:55 Pat Calvin:
And then when you just compound what happened in the days after going up towards Marble Falls, Georgetown, look at this, over 20 inches of rain. You’ve got nearly two feet of rain just to the south of Brady, so there were different pockets here, notice these pockets of pink and magenta, this is where flash flooding was the worst, and this is what I was talking about, where the science just isn’t there yet. We are not at a point yet where we can identify where these individual pockets that lead to this life-threatening flash flooding can happen until pretty much it’s starting to happen. So, within about 30 minutes to an hour, the National Weather Service is going to see the trend, and they’re going to issue the warnings, but those warnings will only come with about 20 to 30 minutes of notice. We can’t, you know, it’s not at a point yet where you can give you a day’s worth of notice to get out of the way of these flooding events.
35:25 Chief Nim Kidd:
I’ll move to Thursday morning, July 3, at 8 o’clock. We do a command and general staff, which is our agency’s internal call of our assistant chiefs across the region and the divisions. We do this every weekday just to get us started as an agency on the same page, it lasts usually 12 minutes, maybe 13 minutes from time to time. If there’s something going on that lasts a little longer. At our 8 o’clock command and general staff call, some forecast models by the National Weather Service had some outliers. The area of concern that we were looking at was 35,000 square miles across Texas. Let me put that in perspective, that’s the state of Indiana, or Maine, or Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island combined was the area of operation that we wanted to have resources ready to support our local government partners. That was 44 counties in Texas. The forecast then for those 44 counties in that area was again one to three inches of rain less likely, now five to seven.
42:35 Chief Nim Kidd:
9:30pm on Thursday night, National Weather Service San Antonio, pockets of heavy rain in Kendall County headed towards Gillespie and Blanco County. One to two inches have already fallen within the last three hours, and more rain is on the way. At 11:17pm National Weather Service San Antonio, pockets of rain continue across the hill country, more development expected through the evening. Flash flood watch remains in effect until 7am on Friday, July 4, and their message was, “Turn around, don’t drown.”
43:15 Chief Nim Kidd:
At 1:14am, flash flood warning. First warning, as you saw in the broadcast also, from Ingram and Hunt until 4:15am. One to two inches have fallen, expected rate of two to three inches per hour, one to three additional inches expected. Flash flood is ongoing or expected with what they put out on their social media accounts.
45:00 Chief Nim Kidd:
4:23am — five to 10 inches of rain over the next three to six hours. This is a flash flood emergency. 4:45am the National Weather Service at Guadalupe and Hunt puts out another message. And at 5:56, I personally get the first report of people trapped on roofs. We know what happened after that.
49:30 Chief Nim Kidd:
I know we’re going to talk about interoperable communications a lot, so I won’t talk about it much now, but I will tell you, I went to Kerrville on Friday morning. As soon as I got the text, I went straight there, about an hour and a half drive from my house, and I ran into some of my guys from the San Antonio Fire Department that I worked with back when I was in the field as a lieutenant on the technical rescue team, and I had my radio with me, and I asked to be able to talk to them on theirs, but their San Antonio radio doesn’t work in that footprint, so they had some really cheap Chinese radios that they were talking to each other on. We’re better than that. We can do better than that, and we need to.
50:40 Chief Nim Kidd:
There’s no minimum qualifications to be an emergency management coordinator in the state of Texas. It’s whoever the county judge or whoever the mayor appoints. We’re better than that.
1:10:20 Chief Nim Kidd:
The state and the nation looks to the National Weather Service. That is the public-facing weather document that we primarily look at and gauge what we think others will see in that. That’s part one. Part two is we have multiple private sector weather services that our team uses in addition to the products from the National Weather Service. One of those tools for storm prediction is a private sector group out of the Friendswood area there, and they give us a very scientific forecast for tropical storms, much different than what the National Weather Service puts out. So our team of expert meteorologists does actually look at all of those that are out there to see what the public is seeing, so that we can help try to gauge what public action may be, as well as take the resources and position them in places that we feel we need to be ready to support local partners.
1:43:45 Chief Nim Kidd:
Under the FEMA public assistance program, we call it PA, that’s the money that goes to state agencies, local governments, and certain nonprofits to rebuild or repair what was damaged. In the PA program that’s a 75/25 split, usually. 75% of the money from FEMA through us down to that sub applicant. If during the time of that rebuilding or that repair, there is an opportunity to do additional mitigation, that’s the word that FEMA uses, and FEMA will approve that for the right benefit-cost analysis, that structure, that facility can be improved, not just rebuilt to the way that it was. That’s part one. Part two is FEMA has a program called the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, referred to HMGP. HMGP is generally identified one year, 12 months, after the beginning of the disaster. Historically, that has been 15% of whatever the federal share was of the public assistance damage. Tracking so far? So for every million dollars in damage I get $150,000 in new money to go do mitigating efforts in different places that were not impacted by the disaster, could be the same community, but remember in the PA program, I can do mitigation. This new money would go and do places in the same jurisdiction or in other jurisdictions to fix problems that have been identified. Historically. That mitigation money does not all get spent across the nation, not just in Texas, but across the nation. There are multiple reasons for that. One is, it’s a 75/25 split. Most of the jurisdictions that have just experienced the disaster do not have the financial resources to go and build what they want to fix, because they’re building what has been damaged in the inventory and repaired.
1:48:15 Chief Nim Kidd:
And this is why the FEMA flood mitigation program and the hazard mitigation program isn’t really that successful, because the way the program was designed, it’s to the individual jurisdictions. It’s very difficult to get the taxpayers in Harris County that are impacted by the flood to flood mitigation efforts 200 miles upstream that caused the flood.
1:59:00 Chief Nim Kidd:
There are also National Weather Service — NOAA, National Weather Service is part of NOAA, which is part of Commerce — weather radios. I have one by my bed. You should stop at HEB or Walmart on the way home if you don’t have one, and spend the $35 and have one next to your bed, because we’re places where we don’t have cell phone coverage, the National Weather Service, NOAA Weather Radios, will alert and wake you up at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 o’clock in the morning.
4:35:30 Sen. Donna Campbell ®:
Doesn’t FirstNet, which is an emergency secure network operated by AT&T, have a bandwidth that’s available for good communication for emergency services to coordinate? Because we’ve heard a lot about how systems can’t, you can’t talk to each other, or you’re in an area where there is poor reception, but does FirstNet alleviate some of that problem? It’s supposed to be a secure –
Freeman Martin:
Freeman Martin, Texas DPS. I know there are some experts here that can answer that question better than I can, but it’s my understanding that what FirstNet does is prioritize emergency responders over others, so if the network is saturated, it’ll prioritize our calls over the general population, but if there’s no service, there’s no service.
Sen. Donna Campbell ®:
I see.
MusicTired of Being Lied To by David Ippolito
EditingPro Podcast Solutions
Production AssistanceClare Kuntz Balcer
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