Ulster Economix - The Podcast: Recent Episodes
Ulster Economix
Hosted by Ulster Bank Chief Economist Richard Ramsey, Ulster Economix - The Podcast keeps you up-to-date on the economy in Northern Ireland. The podcast tells you what you need to know each month, but not always what you want to hear.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Andrew Webb Chief Economist with Grant Thornton
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive at Manufacturing NI
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Featuring Aoife Hamilton, Consultant at Employers for Childcare
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Noyona Chundur, Chief Executive of the Consumer Council for Northern Ireland
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Sir David Sterling KCB
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Grant Thornton’s Chief Economist Andrew Webb
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Hosted monthly by Ulster Bank's Chief Economist, Richard Ramsey
Featuring Mark Spence, CEO, Construction Employers Federation
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring John French, Chief Executive at Utility Regulator
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Anastasia Desmond, Assistant Economist at Ulster University Economic Policy Centre
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer, PropertyPal
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Siobhan McAleer, Managing Director at The Mortgage Shop.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Dr Lisa Wilson from Nevin Economic Research Institute
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Episode 26 - The Good Friday Agreement 25 years on featuring Prof John Turner, Queens University Business School
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Episode 26 - The world's most exciting economic zone with Mark O'Connell, Executive Chairman at OCO Global
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Episode 25 - Unhappy Anniversary with Mark Magill, Senior Economist at Ulster University's Economic Policy Centre.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Andrew Webb, Chief Economist at Grant Thornton
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Sorry, no Jamie Dornan or Gillian Anderson on this podcast. Just an economist and a mortgage broker chewing the fat.
‘The Fall’ refers to the continued fall in output, confidence and living standards amongst other things. We will major on the local mortgage market in a bit.
In this episode we are delighted to be joined by Siobhan McAleer Managing Director of The Mortgage Shop - which Siobhan founded in 1992 and which has become one of the largest mortgage brokerages in Northern Ireland and which has branches in Great Britain / Mainland UK.
But first reflecting on another month and we had not one but two fiscal events.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Gareth Hetherington - Director of the Ulster University Economic Policy (NICEP) at Ulster University.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Andrew Webb, Chief Economist at Grant Thornton
To say that September has been a dramatic month in politics is an understatement.
It marked the end of an era in so many ways. Queen Elizabeth II’s 70-year reign has come to an end with the longest serving monarch of all-time replaced by King Charles III.
The end of one Elizabethan era has coincided with the start of another, with Liz Truss replacing Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. Kwasi Kwarteng became the third chancellor of the exchequer in three months. Similarly, Northern Ireland saw the appointment of Chris Heaton-Harris, its third Secretary of State in three months and the first Northern Ireland Secretary of State with a double-barrelled name.
These personnel changes will bring with them a new approach for a new era. Indeed, “a new approach for a new era” was a key message within Kwasi Kwarteng’s ‘mini-budget’ on 23rd September, a date that will go down in the history books of both the UK government and the Conservative party.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Sam McIlveen, General Manager at NI Jobs (NIJobs.com)
Throughout August we’ve heard lots of comparisons between today and 1976, given the heatwaves and drought that affected both years. 2022 has been the UK’s driest year since and the driest in Europe for 500 years. Europe’s rivers, such as the Rhine, have been drying up with the record drought in China causing similar problems there. The Southwest of China depends on hydroelectric dams for three-quarters of its electricity generation. Rolling blackouts and business closures due to lack of power have become the norm.
While we have been dealing with the impact of the warm weather, it is the cost of heat, light and food for households this winter that should be on all of our minds. We are after all currently experiencing the worst inflation since the late 1970s and the spectre of industrial action has also returned; albeit not on the scale of the 70s.
I’ve been working as an economist for the last 25 years – for those with long memories they will realise that this period has included the credit crunch / global financial crisis, housing crash, Eurozone debt crisis, Brexit, Covid and a war in mainland Europe – and today is the most concerned and worried I have ever been about the near-term economic outlook from the perspective of its potential impact on people.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Featuring Jordan Buchanan - PropertyPal Chief Economist
We’ve become well used to price hikes with rampant inflation. But April was marked by tax hikes with the increase in National Insurance Contributions hitting the pockets of many employees as well as employers. The attention now though is very firmly on interest rate hikes with the Federal Reserve having just delivered its first half a percentage point rate increase in 22 years with more to come as the Fed seeks to tame inflation which is at 40-year-high.
In the UK, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised Bank Rate to 1% this month, its fourth consecutive hike – a first in the 25 years since it was granted independence – as CPI inflation currently stands at 9% a forty-year high too. Three members of the committee wanted to see rates rise to 1.25%, and Governor Andrew Bailey made clear that these hikes won’t prevent inflation from rising further, but judged they were needed to prevent it becoming entrenched.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Under the Tractor Bonnet featuring Cormac McKervey - Head of Agriculture at Ulster Bank NI
The cost-of-living crisis hasn’t been the only crisis dominating the airwaves lately. Warnings of a global food crisis are coming in thick and fast. Last week the World Bank’s president David Malpass warned the world faces a “human catastrophe” from a food crisis resulting from the Russian – Ukraine conflict.
The World Bank warns that the Ukraine War is set to cause the largest commodity shock since the 1970s. This warning comes when global food prices were already at record highs. According to the UN global food prices jumped 34% y/y with wheat and oils rising by almost one-fifth and one-quarter in the month following the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. The World Bank projects we could see another huge rise in food prices of 37%.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Last week’sSpring Statement was initially supposed to be little more than an update on economic and fiscal forecasts. However, it had been overtaken by events; namely the cost-of-living crisis.
Last month’s Podcast - Vlad the invader’s price premium – highlighted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made a bad situation much worse – from a cost-of-living perspective. As a result, it was assumed that the Chancellor - or Santa Sunak as he was dubbed during the first eighteen months of the pandemic - would soften the blow for households and potentially businesses. Spoiler alert. The response was underwhelming to say the least. And was more Ebeneezer Scrooge than Santa Claus.
First, let’s look at the economic outlook.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Over the last week or so the UK has been battered by Dudley, Eunice and Franklin. Many households have been impacted by flooding and are knee-deep in water. We await to hear the ‘G’ and ‘H’ names of the subsequent storms that follow.
We are already aware of the advancing ‘T’ storm, or Tax storm. April will see us showered with more tax increases most notably the hike in National Insurance Contributions. Other stealth taxes announced last year are set to be much more painful due to inflation being much higher than expected. These include the four-year freeze on the various income tax thresholds and the five-year freeze on the Pension Lifetime Allowance.
But households and businesses are most concerned about the ‘I’ storm that has been battering their finances with increasing force. The forecast is that the I storm will get worse and will be with us for the rest of the year and beyond. I am of course referring to inflation.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland.
Listeners of a certain age may recall Johnny Logan taking to the stage in a black shirt and white suit to sing “What’s another year?” The Irish singer won the Eurovision Song Contest with that number almost 42 years ago.
Economic conditions back in 1980 were grim with high unemployment in the UK, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. And both the UK and Ireland were ‘in Europe’ in the shape of being members of the European Economic Community or the E.E.C. And there wasn’t a pandemic too
Fast forward to the start of 2021 and economic conditions were also grim. Private sector activity was falling with households and some businesses subject to lockdown restrictions. Fears of a surge in unemployment once the furlough scheme came to an end were real. Meanwhile the NI Protocol came into force and the UK was only in the early stages of vaccine rollout.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland.
On the cusp of Christmas, it feels apt to reflect on the past, present and future of the local economy. And with issues like Covid, Brexit and rampant inflation very much on the agenda, there is no shortage of scary topics to discuss.
2021 was the year of the rebound and it was full steam ahead on the recovery with the roll out of vaccines facilitating that by allowing the economy to open up. This meant that vaccine queues were one of the images of the year, rather than the expected dole queues which were the ghosts of the past that didn’t come back to haunt us.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland.
COVID lockdowns meant 2020 was a year to forget for the film making industry and the movie watching public. No Time To Die, the latest film in the James Bond franchise was delayed three times because of the pandemic. Unlike 2020, 2021 has seen a steady stream of much anticipated sequels being released such as Top Gun: Maverick, Mission Impossible 7 and last month’s Halloween Kills. Spiderman 3 and Matrix 4 are slated for release in December and next year we can look forward to Scream 5 and Legally Blonde 3 – or so I am told.
Some sequels use the same cast and rehashed plotlines as the original. Others introduce new characters and new storylines to engage the audience and to keep the story fresh. In the economics world there are plenty of sequels too whether it is stock market crashes, recessions, or financial crisis.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland.
2020 will be remembered for many things but low energy prices is probably not one of them.
Fuel costs have rocketed since then and are now centre stage within an evolving cost-of-living crisis for households. Those on Universal Credit – that’s around 134,000 in Northern Ireland – are particularly vulnerable having lost their temporary £20 per week uplift last month. Reduced income and rising costs are a nasty combo.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland.
There has been no shortage of drama on the economic and political fronts during September. And the drama is focussed on shortages.
A number of crises, that have been the subject of previous podcasts, are converging. These include supply chain disruption, inflationary pressures and adapting to Brexit. Shortages are becoming ever more problematic from labour to energy.
We have had supply chain disruption intensify most recently with petrol shortages. Some headlines ran with Kung Fuel Fighting as skirmishes broke out in GB petrol station forecourts like something out of a Mad Max movie.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland.
Recessions traditionally follow a standard playbook. A fall in output followed by a lagged rise in job losses and unemployment triggering a decrease in consumer spending hitting retail sales and the housing market.
That was the typical path of recessions. The COVID-19 pandemic spawned a new recessionary variant. The UK economy posted its biggest slump in output in over 300 years. Yet a comparable rise in unemployment did not occur. Similarly, a fall in house prices was viewed as a ‘no brainer’ but it too did not occur.
Rather than double-digit declines in house prices, almost every major economy is reporting booming house prices, marking the biggest rally in more than two decades.
The local housing market has defied economists’ predictions too.
The Ulster Economix Podcast. The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
Five years have passed since the EU referendum. The result was clear, but the outworking of Brexit has not. That is because Brexit is a process and not an event. It has been a much slower, laborious and complicated process than many of the proponents of Brexit had anticipated.
Liam Fox dubbed securing an EU trade deal “one of the easiest in human history”. Though things have not panned out that way. The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020. But, as part of a transition period, remained in the EU customs union and single market until the 31st December 2020.
Since then, regulatory borders have been redrawn, including a new regulatory sea border in the Irish Sea as part of the NI Protocol - which governs NI’s special status as being in both the UK & EU’s respective single markets for goods.
The Ulster Economix Podcast. The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
It could be said that we have a Ketchup bottle economy at the minute. Shake a ketchup bottle and nothing happens. But eventually we will get covered in red sauce as the blockage is worked free. Something similar is happening in global supply chains at present and this is impacting on all of our lives.
Inflation has been the buzzword in recent weeks around the world. Households are experiencing a pick-up in both consumer prices and house prices. Meanwhile businesses are reporting soaring input costs such as increased freight costs and rising raw material prices. These additional costs will be passed onto firms’ customers in due course.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
EPISODE 7 – Brewster’s Millions
In the 1985 film Brewster’s Millions, Richard Pryor’s character is left a £300 million fortune. Provided Monty Brewster meets the challenge of blowing $30 million in thirty days he can keep the whole estate. Simply giving the money away though is forbidden and there are limits on gambling and donating to charity. The lead character embarks on a spending spree and fulfils the conditions of the will, therefore inheriting the lot.
Will we see a Brewster style spending spree in the global economy in the months ahead? Some think so.
The Ulster Economix Podcast. The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear. It is better to be prepared for the economic environment we are operating in and not the world we would like to be in.
March saw the end of another historic Rugby Six Nations. Scotland may not have won but they certainly rolled back the years by beating England at Twickenham for the first time since 1983 and defeating France in Paris for the first time since 1999.
Following the deepest recession in three hundred years, March also saw Rishi Sunak roll back the years with his second Budget - albeit his 15th fiscal event in the space of a year.
The podcast that keeps you up to date with what is happening economy-wise in Northern Ireland. Telling you what you need to know but not necessarily what you want to hear.
Neither Armageddon nor nirvana. That’s how the chair of Westminster’s Northern Ireland Affairs Committee described the first month of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Michael Gove introduced an aviation metaphor to describe the turbulence so far. According to Gove – “We all know that when an aeroplane takes off that’s the point when you sometimes get that increased level of turbulence. But then you eventually reach a cruising altitude and the crew tell you to take your seatbelts off and enjoy a gin and tonic and some peanuts. We’re not at the gin and tonic and peanuts stage yet, but I’m confident that we will be.”
New Year, new era. January has already heralded much change on both sides of the Atlantic. There is a new president in the White House with Joe Biden. In the UK, the Brexit transition period has ended and through the EU and UK's Trade and Cooperation Agreement, signed last month, a new chapter in the UK-EU relations has begun. The UK-EU deal that has been secured is unique in that it is the only trade deal in history which creates and adds barriers to trade rather than remove them.
You wait ages and then three come along at once. Since March, it has been clear that a highly effective vaccine is required to cope with COVID-19. A sustained and meaningful economic recovery can only take hold if one is found. Following the encouraging news on three potential vaccines hope has returned. First out of the traps was Pfizer and BioNTech successful trials. Their news saw the share price of Zoom & Peloton slump and those of airlines and cruise ships soar.
A fresh round of lockdown restrictions in November and December coupled with the incoming news on the vaccine front has seen economists continue to revise down economic forecasts for 2020 and simultaneously revise up growth expectations for 2021. This doesn’t mean that the sunlit uplands are around the corner.
Traditionally a month renowned for its beer festivals and socialising, October is shaping up to be quite the opposite, with the second wave of restrictions hitting the hospitality sector. These have been applied to varying degrees across the UK and in the Republic of Ireland. With the daily COVID-19 cases surging across much of Europe, any hopes of a V-shape recovery have been snuffed out.
So what the local economy in Northern Ireland? what is the incoming economic data and news telling us about the economy and the strength of the recovery?
The summer has been and gone.
So what about the local economy? What is the incoming economic data and news telling us about the local economy and the strength of the recovery?
During the month of August, the public were encouraged to Eat Out To Help Out to support the hospitality sector. September it wasn't so much get out, but get back in. A resurgence in the virus triggered a change in tact from Health Secretary Matt Hancock as he warned the country was at a tipping point with the onset of a second wave of infections.