Polling Matters: Recent Episodes
Keiran Pedley
Keiran Pedleys bring you the latest opinion poll news and analysis with guests. Follow Keiran on twitter @keiranpedley
On this week’s episode of the Ipsos MORI Politics and Society podcast, Keiran Pedley and Cameron Garrett sit down to discuss the latest wave of Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor. They ask what is behind the Conservative’s growing poll lead and examine Keir Starmer’s falling poll ratings.
In this special episode, Kieran Pedley is joined by two colleagues, Holly Day and Cameron Garrett.
- Holly talks about the government’s improving poll ratings and what is driving them
- Cameron talks about Keir Starmer’s poll ratings a year in as Labour leader
- And Keiran takes us through how the public think past PMs did in office – as featured on Times Radio this week
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Emily Gray, Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland and Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at The University of Strathclyde. In this episode, the guests discuss the unfolding important elections in Scotland and the latest Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor, including:
- Is the Salmond - Sturgeon row cutting through to voters? Does it matter?
- Looking ahead to the Scottish elections in May, why they're important and what is the current state of events.
- Scotland's independence - Sir John Curtice gives his opinion on what the 'baseline' level of support for independence is and the implications it could pose on the United Kingdom.
- What is Scottish public opinion of the party leaders and issues and how this election compares with previous ones.
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Stephen Bush, Political Editor of the New Statesman and Paula Surridge, Deputy Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Political Sociologist at the University of Bristol.
In this episode, the team review the latest data from the Ipsos MORI Political Monitor including:
- The state of the main parties as we enter 2021,
- The Greens being on 8 points – and whether it matters,
- Public perceptions of the government’s handling of COVID,
- Plus a deep dive on Labour leader Keir Starmer – how is he doing as he approaches the first anniversary of him becoming Labour leader?
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh and Emily Gray of Ipsos MORI Scotland to discuss this week's bombshell Ipsos MORI / STV News poll showing support for Scottish independence at a record 58%. The group discuss what has caused support for independence to increase, the arguments Scots find convincing for independence and for Scotland staying in the Union and what might happen at the Scottish parliamentary elections next year.
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Chris Jackson from Ipsos in the US and Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to take a deep-dive look at the upcoming US presidential election.
Topics discussed included:
- What’s driving Biden’s lead?
- How can Trump turn it around?
- Shy Trump voters / partisan non-response bias / turnout filters and other important polling points
- The states to watch
- Will we know the result on election day?
- Is a Trump win or a Biden landslide more likely?
…and some listener questions too.
On this week's Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Katy Balls, Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator and Ben Walker, Data Journalist at the New Statesman and founder of the Britain Elects website.
The team discuss the fallout from new COVID restrictions announced by the government this week – and what the public think of them as well as reaction to Keir Starmer’s first conference speech as Labour leader and how he polls versus Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Note for listeners: Polling Matters will return in its original format soon but for now Keiran will post Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcasts here as well as on the Ipsos feed - the content is very similar to what listeners are used to from Polling Matters.
This week Keiran Pedley is joined by former Deputy Chief of Staff to David Cameron, Baroness Kate Fall and by Asa Bennett, Brexit Editor at the Daily Telegraph. Interspersed with insights from Ipsos MORI polling, they look at the state the Conservative Party finds itself in now; how it might differ from the party led by David Cameron; and the challenge posed to the future of the Conservatives in government by the election of Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party.
On the inaugural Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ayesha Hazarika, Alastair Campbell and our Chief Executive Ben Page to discuss historic poll ratings for the new Labour leader and where the Labour Party go from here after a historic defeat in December. Topics covered on the show include:
- Starmer’s leadership ratings in context
- Ben Page on the importance (and limitations) of leadership ratings
- Ayesha and Alastair react to Starmer’s ratings
- Ayesha Hazarika on lessons from the Miliband years
- Alastair Campbell on Blair and leadership
- The importance of the Shadow Cabinet + outriders
- How to repair the Labour brand
- Starmer’s style of opposition
- Labour, Scotland and the Independence question
- Conclusions on Starmer’s main priorities and challenges
If you like what you hear please leave a comment or rating and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Note on the podcast: Polling Matters is on hiatus but Keiran will post similar content from the Ipsos MORI podcast here as well until the main show returns.
On the latest Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask 'who has had a good or bad campaign?' and crucially 'Will there be a hung parliament?'
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On the latest Ipsos MORI elections podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Anand Menon - Director of Brexit think tank 'The UK in a Changing Europe'. Keiran and Anand discuss the latest from the campaign trail and the role of Brexit in this election and in reshaping British politics generally.
Missed other episodes? Check out the Ipsos MORI feed here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-election-2019-podcast or search Ipsos MORI elections podcast on Itunes or other podcast apps.
A normal Polling Matters episode with Keiran and Leo will follow this weekend.
On the latest Ipsos MORI elections podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Emily Gray (MD of Ipsos MORI Scotland) and Mure Dickie (Scotland correspondent for the FT) to discuss the latest polling on Scotland ahead of the General Election and attitudes to another Independence referendum.
Missed episode 4? Check out the Ipsos MORI feed here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-election-2019-podcast or search Ipsos MORI elections podcast on Itunes or other podcast apps.
A normal Polling Matters episode with Keiran and Leo will follow this weekend.
On the third instalment of the Ipsos MORI elections podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by political sociologist Paula Surridge and data Journalist John Burn-Murdoch from the FT. The panel discuss the latest campaign developments, delve into the data and take some listener questions too.
Missed episode 2? Check out the Ipsos MORI feed here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-election-2019-podcast or search Ipsos MORI elections podcast on Itunes or other podcast apps.
A normal Polling Matters episode with Keiran and Leo will follow this weekend.
On the first ever episode of the Ipsos MORI elections podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Katy Balls of The Spectator and Ryan Shorthouse of the independent conservative think tank Bright Blue. The crew discuss what’s happened in the first week of the 2019 General Election campaign, including the potential impact of the Brexit Party’s decision not to stand in Conservative-held seats. Elsewhere in the show, Keiran introduces some Ipsos MORI polling on the key issues on voters’ minds heading into the election, whilst Katy and Ryan discuss how nervous the Conservatives should be about their prospects of staying in office and what to look out for in the upcoming debates (and elsewhere on the campaign trail).
Follow on Twitter:
Host:
@keiranpedley
Guests:
@katyballs @RyanShorthouse
This podcast feed will now host two podcasts for the duration of the 2019 election campaign.
And they’re off! General Election 2019 kicks off.
Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers as a December 12th election is announced. Who is best placed? What is the path to victory for each party and what should we look out for in the coming weeks?
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@leobarasi
@keiranpedley
After the most chaotic week in Westminster since the last one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and discuss how it is all playing out in the court of public opinion and where we go from here.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at a momentous week in British politics and what comes next.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to discuss the latest developments in the race to face Donald Trump in 2020 following this weeks Democratic debates. Later in the show, Keiran looks at the most recent public opinion numbers on Hunt vs Johnson.
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@aedwardslevy
@keiranpedley
Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers and ask whether Boris Johnson is now a shoe-in to become Britain's next Prime Minister and also whether he is the vote winner that some say he is.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a look at the numbers on a host of recent political events.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week.
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@mattsingh_
@keiranpedley
The Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at the local election results and look at what the EU election polling tells us about what is to come.
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look in detail at the prospects for EU parliamentary elections in the UK now that Brexit has been delayed up to a further 6 months.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by David Herdson to review who might replace Theresa May as Tory leader when the time comes.
After a breathtaking week, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and look at the numbers. What do the public think about how Brexit is going, the prospect of no deal and where we go from here? Plus, if a General Election comes, who stands the best chance of winning?
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@leobarasi
@keiranpedley
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by former adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Theo Bertram.
Theo shares some stories of working in Number 10, gives his thoughts on Labour's current situation (and whether Corbyn can bounce back again) and discusses how Labour should manage the many problems they currently face.
Follow this week's guests,
@Keiranpedley
@theobertram
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at the numbers around Labour's policy on a second Brexit vote and discuss the popularity of The Independent Group, comparing their potential impact to that of the SDP in the 1980s.
Meanwhile, Matt unveils some exclusive polling on how Britain could vote in EU parliament elections should Article 50 be extended (& should Brits get to vote in them).
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@keiranpedley
@mattsingh_
The Polling Matters podcast returns, with Keiran Pedley (now of Ipsos MORI) and Leo Barasi discussing the latest polling on The Independent Group. Just how popular are they with the public?
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at polling around a no-deal Brexit to see if commentators suggesting that it is the most popular outcome with the public are right.
Also covered on this week's show is a new report by UK in a Changing Europe, which covers a host of topics on Brexit including support for a second referendum and how Brexit identity appears to be trumping party identity.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the fallout from a hectic week in Westminster. They ask whether a General Election, 2nd referendum or 'no deal Brexit' have become more or less likely and explain why politicians claiming that the Tories are ahead in the polls are not telling the full story.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members - who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics.
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@ProfTimBale
@Keiranpedley
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at events in a frantic week at Westminster. They debate whether May was right to postpone the meaningful vote, whether a change in leader would have any impact on Brexit negotiations and the prospect of another referendum breaking the parliamentary deadlock.
Listen to this week’s episode below:
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week's podcast the Polling Matters team, including the returning Rob Vance, discuss evolving public opinion on May's Brexit deal and what happens if she does not win the 'meaningful vote' next month.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
@Robvance
After an eventful week in Westminster, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh sit down to discuss public opinion on Theresa May's Brexit deal and her future and ask 'what happens now?'
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look into the implications of this week's mid-terms in the US and dissect data from Survation and Chris Hanretty suggesting that Brits would vote Remain if there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.
Elsewhere in the show, Leo looks at what polling tells us about the prospect of a Cameron comeback and Keiran criticises Momentum's "consultation" of its members about Labour's Brexit policy - which he claims was nothing of the sort.
Follow this week's guests:
@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
In the final part of our mini-series on the US midterms ahead of Tuesday's vote Keiran talks to Patrick Ruffini from Echelon insights on the races to watch, the prospects for a Democratic wave and the likelihood of Trump winning re-election in 2020.
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@PatrickRuffini
@Keiranpedley
As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post.
Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump's approval rating and what to look out for in 2020.
This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors.
The first in our series sees Keiran Pedley speak to Anthony Scaramucci.
Scaramucci is a leading Trump supporter, serving Trump in a variety of roles including an infamous 11 days as White House Communications Director in 2017. During their conversation, Keiran and Anthony discuss Scaramucci's new book 'Trump: The Blue Collar President' and how Trump commands such loyal support among white working class voters in the U.S. Keiran and Anthony also discuss issues of race and gender in US politics, the GOP's prospects in the midterms and how the economy will impact Trump's re-election prospects in 2020 (plus who the president would and would not like to face).
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the political lay of the land as we approach the budget, what the public think about the economy and our political leaders ability to handle it and how important the economy is in voting intention terms in a Brexit-dominated 2018.
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@Leobarasi
@Keiranpedley
This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:
In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by Peter McLeod (Vice President at pollster GQR) to explore what the public think of “Chequers” and what they expect from any Brexit deal May brings back. It turns out that Chequers is more popular than you might think in the right context – but is that the context the Prime Minister’s eventual deal will ultimately be seen in? Keiran and Peter discuss.
In part two, Keiran is joined by co-host Leo Barasi to discuss how May gets a deal through parliament, if indeed she reaches one. Keiran explains why he is much less positive than he once was and Leo explains why pollsters will have a big role to play in how some MPs vote.
Follow this week’s guests
@mcleodp
@leobarasi
@keiranpedley
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland.
Topics discussed include:
1) How support for Scottish independence has changed over time and the impact that Brexit could have
2) When the next Scottish Independence vote will happen
3) What's going on in voting intention polls for Holyrood and Westminster and what this means for the main players north of the border (SNP, Tories, Labour)
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at recent polling by Matt on behalf of Shelter and ask 'what's going on in the marginals' and 'How important is housing politically?'
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@Mattsingh_
@Keiranpedley
On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Paula Surridge (Senior Lecturer in Political Sociology at the University of Bristol).
Keiran and Paula discuss the big trends shaping British politics, such as age, social class and education and the impact they could have on British politics in the future.
Paula gives her view on whether Labour would benefit from explicitly campaigning for a second referendum on Brexit and whether there is appetite for a new political party (and what kind). Keiran and Paula also take some listener questions on a range of subjects.
Follow this week’s guests:
@p_surridge
@keiranpedley
As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour's interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
Keiran Pedley is joined by Mark Pack of the Lib Dem Newswire to discuss this week’s Lib Dem conference. Keiran and Mark discuss how the conference went and where the party goes from here and Mark gives everyone an outside tip on who the next Lib Dem leader might be when Vince Cable steps down.
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@markpack
@keiranpedley
On the latest episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss some recent polling by Opinium that looks at where Brits place themselves of the left-right political scale, who classes themselves as 'centrist' and what they think it means.
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@leobarasi
@Keiranpedley
On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for reforming parliamentary constituencies in Westminster. Ron explains how it’s all done, the potential implications if the current proposals are adopted and what happens next.
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a new report by NatCen suggesting that attitudes to Brexit are shifting and that Brits would vote Remain next time. Meanwhile, Keiran takes us through some recent polling from Deltapoll on the question of a united Ireland following Brexit and asks whether unionism is too complacent about Northern Ireland's future in the UK.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
Polling Matters returns for an extended episode exploring the latest goings-on in Washington DC and what a recent avalanche of Brexit related polling tells us about public opinion as we head into a crucial party conference season.
In part one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at Trump's approval rating and what that says about his prospects for re-election and the GOP's prospects in the upcoming midterms. Keiran and Leo also look in-depth at the potential Democratic candidates to face him in 2020, with a special focus on Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders as they compete for the right to lead the Democrat's progressive wing.
In part two, Keiran and Leo examine a range of recent polls that present conflicting messages about the state of public opinion on Brexit. Keiran argues that polling on the outcome of a second referendum is useless at this stage, Leo looks at whether support for a second vote is increasing and both Keiran and Leo have a few choice words for a recent article in The Mirror suggesting that 4 million people are prepared to vote Labour if Corbyn is clearer on their Brexit policy. Finally, the pair examine what the numbers mean for Brexit in practical terms as we enter a busy party conference season.
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@Leobarasi
@Keiranpedley
Got a question for the Polling Matters team? Why not message Keiran or Leo on twitter?
On this week's PB / Polling Matters show Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a different approach to the podcast and look at public opinion on conspiracy theories using some exclusive polling from Opinium.
How many Brits think the earth is flat? Is Elvis alive? Were the moon landings faked? Is Paul dead? Is Nessie real? Our podcasters find out the answers, plus which conspiracy theory has less than half thinking it is false...
Also on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss how Corbyn's latest troubles might impact the polls and what the public think about Boris Johnson's recent comments on the Burka.
Follow this week's podcast guests:
@Leobarasi
@Keiranpedley
This week's PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into three parts.
In part one: Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss this week's Sky Data poll and look at the evidence for whether the public really are turning against Brexit and what this might mean for the debate in Westminster
In part two: Keiran and Leo look at some exclusive PB / Opinium polling on different political systems and ideologies. What do the public think about socialism and capitalism? Is communism really being rehabilitated? And what do the public really understand about the different ideological terms that are often bandied about in the press
In part three: Finally Leo asks some important questions about who pays for polling and how much we should know / pollsters should be made to publish about who pays for their work
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the levels of public support for a no-deal Brexit and how that may factor in to decisions in Westminster.
Also on the podcast, the duo look at polling on support for the far-right and other potential new parties by YouGov as well as public support for the death penalty in light of Sajid Javid's decision not to seek assurances that suspected British Jihadis will not face execution when facing trial in the United States.
All this and more (including Corbyn's Brexit speech and the latest goings on in North Antrim) on the link below:
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@Leobarasi
@Keiranpedley
This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts.
In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.
In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s been happening in Westminster this week, including Boris Johnson’s resignation speech today. Asa looks ahead to a critical Tory party conference season and gives his perspective on who might replace Theresa May in the future.
Finally, Keiran sums up what we’ve learned and explains why Boris Johnson reminds him of David Miliband and why Theresa May reminds him of Mr Burns from the Simpsons. A stretch? You’ll have to listen to find out why...
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@Keiranpedley
@MrJCrouch
@asabenn
On a special episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss a momentous 24 hours in Westminster that has seen both David Davis and Boris Johnson resign. Keiran and Leo ask what happens next and look at what polling of Tory members by YouGov tells us about the future direction of the Conservative Party and who might come to lead it.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a recent Bloomberg story investigating links between hedge funds and pollsters on the day of the EU referendum, public opinion on Heathrow and the environment and ask what Blair hopes to achieve with his latest intervention (and why David Cameron seems to be so quiet).
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at public opinion on the NHS as it hits 70 years old in light of the government's promise to pump in extra cash. Keiran takes us through what the public think of the policy and whether they would accept tax rises to pay for it alongside data on how perceptions of the quality of care provided by the NHS have changed over time.
Later in the show, Leo looks at public opinion on UK drug laws, especially those related to cannabis as the government looks to change the law and discusses how policy might shift in the future. Leo also raises the important distinction between 'decimalisation' and 'legalisation' that appears to go over many commentators heads.
Finally, Keiran and Leo briefly look at US public opinion on the Trump administration's policy of separate children of immigrants from their parents at the US border. Spoiler alert: it's very unpopular.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss Trump's historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore. Keiran and Leo debate the significance of the meeting and what happens now whilst Keiran takes us through the latest polling on Trump that shows what his re-election campaign might look like, why he remains in a tough spot and why these negotiations with North Korea could make or break him.
Later in the show, Keiran and Leo discuss this week's events in parliament. Leo then takes us through some recent polling by Opinium on what the public think of the single market, freedom of movement and the impact that Brexit will have on their own personal finances. Finally, Keiran and Leo take some time to give their thoughts on what might happen in the Autumn and what successfully navigating Brexit will mean for Theresa May's legacy.
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@Keiranpedley
@Leobarasi
The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! On this week's episode, Keiran is joined by Irish journalist and host of 'The Irish Passport' podcast Naomi O'Leary to discuss the fallout from the recent referendum on abortion and where Ireland goes from here. Naomi gives her take on how Ireland has come to change so much in such a relatively short space of time and the relationship between the Irish people and the Catholic church, alongside perspectives on Brexit in Ireland.
Keiran is then joined by Dr Kevin Cunningham, lecturer in statistics, pollster with Ireland Thinks and former Targeting and Analysis manager for the UK Labour Party. Kevin also gives his perspective on the recent Irish referendum and looks at polling data on a united Ireland. Kevin goes on to discuss his recent work with Ian Warren of Election Data, looking at the breakdown of Remain and Leave voters in UK parliamentary constituencies, telling us what it has told him about Brexit and politics in Westminster.
Finally, Keiran gives his take on today's battle between Theresa May and David Davis.
Follow this week's guests:
@Keiranpedley
@NaomiOhReally
@kevcunningham
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the demographic and ideological trends shaping our politics and how they drive voting intention.
Keiran and Leo also look at public opinion on customs unions and the impact that polling is having on Theresa May's calculations when it comes to Northern Ireland.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
Keiran Pedley takes us through Thursday's Local Election results, calling out the results we should pay attention to and asking what this all means for the main parties at Westminster.
Follow Keiran at @Keiranpedley
On this week's podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn's personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling.
The podcast then turns to Rudd's resignation this week, with an in-depth look at public opinion on her departure and immigration more generally. Topics covered include whether the public think our immigration system is fair, too strict and specifically what the public think about a 'hostile environment' policy.
Also on the show, Leo and Keiran discuss polling on President Trump's upcoming 'working visit' and look ahead to the local elections this week.
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@leobarasi
@keiranpedley
NOTE - There will be a bonus podcast this week on Friday after the local elections.
On this week's podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week's local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today's YouGov poll for Queen Mary University.
Follow Keiran Pedley at @keiranpedley
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss:
- Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions
- Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration
- An exclusive survey from Opinium that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in Syria
- What the Lords has to say about the future of polling and how pollsters should react
You can find data tables for the Opinium poll on Syria here http://opinium.co.uk/tables-weeks-polling-matters-survey/
Follow this week’s guests:
@keiranpedley
@MattSingh_
@AGKD123.
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss:
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Jeremy Corbyn’s declining poll ratings and whether Russia or the ongoing anti-Semitism row is more to blame.
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A new poll shows May and Hammond leading Corbyn and McDonnell +13 points on the economy. But is the economy as all-important politically as we once thought?
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David Miliband’s favourabilty ratings – how do they compare to his brother and could he make a comeback?
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Who would actually vote for a new party in Britain?
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Why question wording really matters when looking at support for a second Brexit vote.
Follow this week’s podcasters:
@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn's job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media.
Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the ever evolving Russia story and delve into some numbers you might have missed from YouGov on Brexit with less than a year to go until Britain 'leaves' the EU (depending on how you interpret the transition).
Follow this week's podcasters below:
@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!
As a new YouGov poll shows the Tories 4 points ahead, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the untold story of the recent Conservative resurgence in the polls and ask what is behind it and does it matter?
Catching up on recent events, Keiran and Leo also discuss the Salisbury attack and delve into recent polling around its aftermath and Russia. Keiran explains why he thinks this story might be cutting through politically beyond the usual Westminster bubble chatter. Keiran and Leo also discuss the Facebook / Cambridge Analytica scandal, whether people really care about how their personal data is used and what it tells us about the Trump and Brexit campaigns.
Finally, the podcast looks at Labour's antisemitism row and why it could matter in a way you might not expect.
For all this and more click the link below:
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@keiranpedley
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On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask 'was there really a 'youthquake' at the 2017 General Election and does it matter?
Keiran and Leo also look at the role that gender played in the 2017 vote and uncover some striking data that suggests we might be getting public opinon on Brexit all wrong.
Find all this and more on this week's show.
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@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's podcast Keiran and Leo unveil some exclusive polling that asks how favourable or unfavourable the British public is towards the following countries (with some interesting differences by Brexit vote and age):
NET: Favourable NET: Unfavourable Net New Zealand 72% 3% +69 Australia 71% 4% +66 Spain 54% 8% +46 Japan 46% 8% +38 Germany 44% 14% +30 France 44% 18% +27 United States 43% 24% +19 Poland 31% 15% +16 South Africa 20% 26% -6 China 21% 28% -7 Argentina 15% 25% -10 Russia 11% 50% -39 Iran 5% 61% -55
(Note - nets may appear to be one point out in places due to rounding)
Source: Opinium. 19-22 Jan, 2018. Tables with appear on the Opinium website in due course.
Also on the show, Keiran and Leo look at polling on how young is 'too young' and how old is 'too old' to be Prime Minister and ask what this means for the current political leadership in the UK.
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@leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include:
1) What the Tories' new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy 2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and what recent polling tells us about public opinion on the issue. 3) What's going on with Labour following the NEC elections, is a Corbynite succession now inevitable and will Corbyn's age be an issue at the next election? Follow the podcasters here: @keiranpedley @leobarasi
The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns for a new year with a new format.
The podcast starts with Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discussing the latest news stories from the past week. Leo talks about this week’s reshuffle and the recent hiring and resignation of Toby Young and what it means for the Tories. Keiran then gives his impression on the latest goings on in Trump-land and whether Oprah could really run for president.
Keiran and Leo then unveil some exclusive polling from Opinium on how favourable the public are towards different political leaders in the UK and who they trust (and don’t trust) when it comes to Brexit. There are some woeful numbers for Tony Blair and some interesting stats on which organisations Leave voters trust to tell the truth on Brexit.
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@leobarasi
@keiranpedley
On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole to discuss what the DUP really wants from Brexit negotiations, the role that Irish domestic politics is playing and will play moving forward plus a new poll apparently showing support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland with EU membership.
Also on the show, Keiran looks at the recent Survation poll showing Labour +8 ahead and why it is so different to what other pollsters have and dissects some data from NatCen on what the public think about the Brexit negotiations at 'half time' and how they would vote if there was another referendum tomorrow.
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@mickfealty
The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Matt Singh to discuss the latest developments in Westminster and beyond and what the numbers tell us about what happens next.
On this week's show the team discuss why the polls appear not to be moving given the government's struggles, what the public really think about Brexit and whether the Democrat's could really win in Alabama in the U.S.
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@leobarasi
@mattsingh_
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Roland Kappe of UCL to discuss the recent German election results and what happens next.
Keiran and Roland look at the results that stood out, why the AfD did so well (and whether comparisons with UKIP are valid) plus what form of coalition Angela Merkel could form and why the German election result might be bad for Brexit negotiations.
Elsewhere on the show, Keiran reviews the latest polls and gives his snap reaction to Corbyn's conference speech on Wednesday.
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@rolandkappe
@keiranpedley
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran rounds up the latest political news and polling analysis from the US and the UK.
This week's episode is a solo effort due to a last minute cancellation by a guest, so Keiran takes the reigns alone in a shorter than usual show. Following his return from the States, Keiran takes you through the latest US political news including a slight uptick in Trump's approval rating following Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma.
Closer to home, Keiran reviews the latest UK and Scotland polls, the fallout from this week's vote over the EU withdrawal bill and Tory attempts to woo back young voters from Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party.
Follow Keiran at @keiranpedley
The PB/Polling Matters podcast returns with a review of the summer and in-depth interview on the Brexit talks and where Britain goes from here with Jonathan Portes.
Jonathan is a Professor of Economics at King's College London and a Senior Fellow for UK in a Changing Europe. An expert in matters of immigration and labour markets, Jonathan was Chief Economist at the DWP from 2002 to 2008 and at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He was also Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research between 2011 and 2015.
On this week's episode Keiran and Jonathan discuss the progress made in the Brexit talks, what immigration could look like after Brexit and the significance or otherwise of Labour's recent policy pronouncements on the single market.
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@jdportes
As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date.
The trio discuss polling showing that the Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour and they also discuss Chuka Umunna's recent tweet that seemingly challenged the Labour leadership's position on Europe. Keiran, Rob and Leo then look at what the myriad of polling on Brexit tells us about public opinion on the subject and indeed whether it matters considering the relative lack of difference in policy on Europe shared by the two main parties in Westminster.
The podcast concludes with each of the panellists explaining what they will be looking out for when Westminster returns in the autumn.
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@leobarasi
@robvance
Please note: The podcast will now take a three week break for the summer unless a major political story breaks.
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss exclusive polling from Opinium that looks at how popular a series of frontline British politicians are.
The poll asked a nationally representative sample of UK adults to rate the following politicians on a scale of 0 to 10 on the basis of how favourable they were to them:
- Jeremy Corbyn
- Sadiq Khan
- Yvette Cooper
- Keir Starmer
- Emily Thornberry
- Diane Abbott
- Ed Miliband
- Theresa May
- Boris Johnson
- David Davis
- Phillip Hammond
- Ruth Davidson
- Michael Gove
- Amber Rudd
- Vince Cable
- Nicola Sturgeon
- Arlene Foster
Jeremy Corbyn was the winner - but there's a catch. Listen to the podcast to find out more.
Keiran and Leo also discuss Tony Blair's recent Brexit intervention and ask whether he is a help or a hindrance to his cause.
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@Keiranpedley
@leobarasi
On this week's podcast Keiran is joined once more by US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua.
Keiran and JC discuss the political fallout in the States following scandalous revelations from emails. However, this time they are not Clinton emails but those of Donald Trump Jr. Keiran and JC also discuss what Corbyn’s surge might mean for US politics in the future and why America doesn’t have universal healthcare even though some polls suggest that the concept is more popular than you might think.
Later in the show, Keiran unveils some exclusive polling from Opinium showing that UK public opinion seems to be steadily edging towards support for a second referendum on EU membership. Opposition to another vote still leads by 7 points (48%-41% against) but this is down from 19 points in December. There will be more to come on this from Keiran on PB in the coming days but for now you will have to download the podcast to find out more.
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@keiranpedley
@jcbua
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Habib Butt and Leo Barasi to discuss the latest polling news and analysis of the week.
Key topics discussed this week include:
1) What the polls tell us about the state of the parties
2) Who the voters think would make the best PM and what the numbers mean
3) Exclusive Polling Matters / Opinium numbers on why people voted as they did in June and whether Corbyn is ready to be PM or not
4) How Remainers and Brextiers like their steak
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@leobarasi
@tseofpb
On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium.
The team discuss this week's Queen's Speech and the start of the Brexit negotiations and what happens next for the Lib Dems now that Tim Farron has resigned.
The panel also discuss Ipsos Mori's data on 'who voted for who' at the General Election and what impact younger voters might have on British politics in the coming years.
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@agkd123
@markpack
This week’s podcast is split into two parts.
In part one, Keiran chats with Ben Lauderdale from the LSE. Ben was behind the infamous YouGov model which turned out to be so successful. He explains how the model works, what it tells us about the campaign and British politics more generally and where the polling industry goes from here.
In part two, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP might want from the Tories and what any potential deal might mean for the future of the Northern Ireland peace process. Mick gives an interesting perspective on why he is worried about the peace process but still remains optimistic for the future of Northern Ireland.
Keiran then finishes by giving his thoughts on the election and the state of play in British politics
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@keiranpedley
@benjamin_lauderdale
@mickfealty
On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions.
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@mikesmithsonpb
@tseofpb
On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from https://britainelects.com/ to discuss the weekend's polls as the campaign enters the final week.
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@brtnelexben
On this week's episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments.
Chris Curtis explains the background to this week's controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it.
Later in the show, the panel discuss why pollsters have such differing opinions on the state of the campaign and what May must do now to regain momentum and avioid the keys to Number 10 slipping through her fingers. Meanwhile, the team also unveil new polling on who voters trust most to negotiate Brexit and who they think will win.
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@chris__curtis
@AGKD123
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour's recent poll surge is 'real' and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close.
Later in the show, Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that looks at how opinions of the main party leaders have changed since the election began. Also included in the survey is a question about who voters would trust to negotiate Brexit - May or Corbyn - with numbers trended from when the question was last asked in June.
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@mattsingh_
@leobarasi
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Adam Bienkov and Adam Payne from Business Insider UK to discuss today's GfK/Business Insider poll results.
The panel discuss the scale of the Conservative lead, what's happened to the Lib Dems and why Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings are improving (and why it probably won't matter). They also discuss what's behind May's approval rating plus interesting findings from the survey that suggest Tony Blair is less popular than Jeremy Corbyn.
The discussion finishes with analysis on what British politics may look like after the General Election is over for all sides.
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@adampayne26
@adambienkov
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll.
Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week's local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls differ from the national vote share last week and what it means. Steve explains why he thinks a Tory landslide is more likely than not and Keiran and Steve make time to discuss France too.
Later in the show, Keiran unveils new polling from Opinium that suggests the public are broadly buying Theresa May's key talking points in the election but may not be as thrilled at the prospect of a Tory landslide as the polls may suggest.
Follw this week's guests
@keiranpedley
@stephendfisher
On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off.
The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion polls and whether the polls might be wrong again (and how). The podcast also unveils the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey looking at the appetite (or lack thereof) for a second referendum on EU membership. Could this be why the Lib Dems struggle or is Adam Payne’s alternative suggestion the real reason?
Finally, the panel also look ahead to the local elections on Thursday and discuss the potential impact of turnout on the General Election result in June.
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@keiranpedley
@AGKD123
@Adampayne26
On this week's podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia.
Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of 'En Marche' be succesful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might happen to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.
To finish the show, Keiran unveils some new Polling Matters / Opinium polling that asks how engaged the public are in the campaign, what issues matter most to them and who is best placed to deal with them.
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@keiranpedley
@chrishanretty
With a snap general election announced, Leo Barasi is joined by Progress deputy editor Conor Pope, and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinski, to talk about the state of the parties and the race ahead. The Tories seem to be on course for a guaranteed landslide but does that mean they won't be able to scare potential voters about a Corbyn government? What policies and arguments can Labour offer to fight back? How far can the Lib Dems go? And is it all gloom for Ukip?
Keiran is on holiday.
Follow this week's guests: @conorpope @jantalipinski @leobarasi
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Leo is joined by Lib Dem writer and campaign strategist Mark Pack to discuss the Lib Dem fightback and the new Polling Matters / Opinium survey on the party's prospects. The Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls, but how high can they go, where should they look for new voters, should they change leader and can they win the Gorton by-election? Later in the show, Leo and Mark discuss the new poll from Lord Ashcroft and what it says about the challenges the government will face in negotiating a popular Brexit deal. Keiran is on holiday.
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@leobarasi
@markpack
On this week's PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Colin Rallings from the University of Plymouth to discuss the latest Rallings and Thrasher projections for the coming local elections in May and what they might mean for the wider political environment. Later in the show, Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi to discuss the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey which looks at what voters would be prepared to compromise in the coming Brexit deal.
NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Brexit day, Article 50 polling, Scotland’s future and GfK returns
On a momentous day in British history, Keiran and Rob discuss public opinion on Brexit as the Article 50 letter lands in Brussels and Keiran discusses Scotland’s future with Ipsos Mori Scotland Research Director Mark Diffley. Finally, Keiran talks more about new GfK political polling that has made a splash this week including numbers showing Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating among Brits being as weak as Donald Trump’s. More on that polling (including methodology and data tables here).
The segment on Scotland dominates this week’s episode and is a particularly wide ranging discussion, including new information on why the polls are not moving towards Independence at this stage. Keiran and Rob also unveil new Polling Matters / Opinium numbers showing party cross-breaks that might surprise you.
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@keiranpedley
@robvance
@markdiffley1
Do you want to support the PB/Polling Matters podcast?
Please vote for the show in the British Podcast Awards for ‘Listeners choice’. Just go to https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/vote search for ‘Polling Matters’ and click on the avatar with the graph (not the one by Frank Newport). Shortlisted shows get featured on The Guardian so it really helps grow our audience if we make the cut
On this week's new (revamped) episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran touches briefly on the shocking events of this week before being joined by Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to discuss the latest polling data and elections news. Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling on whether there should be a second EU referendum with changes that might surprise you, Leo explains why he thinks there will not be a snap election (although Keiran argues May is making a mistake in waiting) and Rob touches on events in Northern Ireland following the death of Martin McGuinness. Follow this week's guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi @robvance
On this week’s podcast Keiran is joined by Ailsa Henderson, Head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Edinburgh to discuss a potential second Scottish Independence referendum.
Keiran and Ailsa discuss why Nicola Sturgeon decided to call for a referendum now, what a new campaign would look like, what the polls tell us about who would win, the importance of Brexit and what we can learn from Quebec.
Also on the show Keiran unveils some new polling from Opinium looking at whether voters consider Brexit the right or wrong decision (tracked from January) and we get the second part of Keiran’s conversation from last week with Mick Fealty from Slugger O’Toole on Northern Ireland.
Follow this week’s guests
@keiranpedley
@ailsa_henderson
@mickfealty
Oh and please vote for the podcast in the British podcast awards below.
Do you want to support the PB/Polling Matters podcast?
Please vote for the show in the British Podcast Awards for ‘Listeners choice’. Just go to https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/vote search for ‘Polling Matters’ and click on the avatar with the graph (not the one by Frank Newport). Shortlisted shows get featured on The Guardian so it really helps grow our audience if we make the cut.
This week’s episode of the Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:
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Part one: Keiran speaks to Mick Fealty of Sluggerotoole.com about what we learned from last week’s elections in Northern Ireland, who the winners and losers were and what happens next…
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Part two: Keiran discusses this week’s polling of Labour members conducted by YouGov on behalf of Ian Warren at Election Data. Keiran is joined by Laurence Janta-Lipinski and Emma Bean to discuss how vulnerable Corbyn is and who might lead Labour into 2020 if he stands down. The panel also discuss the budget and Laurence explains why budgets are never good for governments.
Follow today’s guests here:
@keiranpedley
@mickfealty
@emmalbeanie
@jantalipinski
Do you want to support the Polling Matters podcast?
Please vote for the show in the British Podcast Awards for ‘Listeners choice’. Just go to https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/vote search for ‘Polling Matters’ and click on the avatar with the graph (not the one by Frank Newport). Shortlisted shows get featured on The Guardian so it really helps grow our audience if we make the cut.
On this week's podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics.
The panel discuss the fallout from and historical significance of last week's by-elections in Stoke and Copeland and what happens next for Labour and UKIP. Keiran introduces polling that shows the significance of Corbyn's leadership in Labour's situation as well as polling from YouGov on who might replace Corbyn as Labour leader should he be replaced.
Finally, Keiran and Adam unveil new Polling Matters / Opinium polling on what makes a good Prime Minister and Matt gives his impressions on what might happen after this week's election in Northern Ireland.
Follow this week's guests here:
@keiranpedley
@agkd123
@mattsingh_
This week's podcast is split into two parts:
In part one Keiran is joined by Charles Moore to discuss the legacy of Margaret Thatcher, how she compares to Theresa May, would she have voted Brexit and what we should make of the new 'fake news' phenomenon. Charles Moore is the former editor of both the Sunday and Daily Telegraph and The Spectator and also the authorised biographer of the former Conservative Prime Minister.
In part two Keiran is joined by Phil Burton-Cartledge, lecturer in Sociology at the University of Derby, Labour activist and blogger for 'All that is solid'. Phil has been on the doorsteps in Stoke and Keiran asked him about his experiences talking to voters, whether he thought Labour would hold the seat this week and how politicians can reengage with apatetic working class voters.
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@CharlesHMoore
@philbc3