EconoFact Chats: Recent Episodes
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Risks from the use of Artificial Intelligence range from autonomous vehicle fender benders to truly cataclysmic events. Managing these risks becomes more urgent with the increased prevalence of AI across a widening set of uses. Josephine Wolff joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how approaches to these challenges must account for the complexity, variety, and opacity of AI systems.Josephine is a Professor of Cybersecurity Policy at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, and the author of Cyberinsurance Policy: Rethinking Risk in an Age of Ransomware, Computer Fraud, Data Breaches, and Cyberattacks.Note: This podcast was first posted on 5th April 2026.
s Deep Decarbonization Initiative.Note: This podcast was first posted on 15th March 2026.
t seen extensive labor market changes from AI, the prospects for worker displacement and the creation of new types of jobs, as well as changes in the supply of workers, as AI evolves and its adoption spreads.Jed is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Head of Macro Data Strategy at Rokos Capital Management. He served as Under Secretary for Economic Affairs at the U.S. Department of Commerce from 2022 to 2024.
and how reforming the taxation of wealth transfers could address both widening inequality and rising government debt.John is a Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. He previously served at the Federal Reserve Board and the Congressional Budget Office.
In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War. This week on EconoFact Chats, Roger Lowenstein describes how Lincoln and Chase revolutionized the role of the federal government, played a crucial part in the Union Army’s victory, and helped forge a national identity – a story that offers a mirror to the current debates over the role of government in building infrastructure and financing higher education as well as the burden of the national debt.Roger reported for The Wall Street Journal for more than a decade. This interview draws from his just-published book Ways and Means: Lincoln and His Cabinet and the Financing of the Civil War.Note: This podcast was first posted on 13th March 2022.
When does a fiscal challenge become a fiscal problem? And at what point can that problem turn into a full blown crisis? As the federal debt held by the public reaches 100% of GDP, a level the US has seen only once before, at the end of World War II, these questions take on greater importance. Drawing on a new EconoFact Explainer (https://econofact.org/explainer/federal-debt-and-the-risk-of-a-fiscal-crisis), Doug Elmendorf, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how U.S. government finances became a problem, what this means for the broader economy, and what prospects there are for reducing government debt.Doug is a Distinguished Service Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.
could check fiscal and monetary indiscipline, and what it would take to rein in housing costs.
the goal of Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown is to “… arm you with the knowledge to fight [because] these battles are going to last for a very long time.” Soumaya and Chad join EconoFact Chats to discuss the effects of the rise of China in the world trading system, the policy approaches taken by the United States, the European Union, and other countries, the role of multinational corporations, the intersection of trade and national security, and the efficacy of defensive policies (like limiting dependence on foreign goods) and offensive strategies (like tariffs).Soumaya Keynes is an economics columnist at the Financial Times and host of The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes. Chad Bown is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and served as Chief Economist at the State Department in the Biden administration.
Close to one in five Americans are over 65, double the ratio two decades ago. This is a consequence of both people living longer, and of declining fertility rates. Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the fall in fertility rates and to explain the challenges from these demographic shifts, including financial strains on Social Security and Medicare, shrinking local tax bases, and reduced business dynamism. She also highlights why immigration is only a partial fix, and why pro-natal policies like child tax credits are unlikely to meaningfully raise birth rates.Melissa is the Gilbert F. Schaefer Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame, where she recently launched the Strengthening Families Research Initiative. She is also the Director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.
Hour.EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to Premium Subscribers. The $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber helps EconoFact bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription here: https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
Billy Pizer discusses how energy security goes beyond the price of oil or liquified natural gas since these prices do not fully capture all the costs of using fossil fuels. One well-known externality, a cost beyond the price at the pump, is global warming and the corresponding climate-related disasters like the 2025 Palisades fire in California or the devastation in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene in 2024. Billy points out that there are other costs as well, including macroeconomic vulnerability from spiking oil prices and the risks associated with the tilting of political and military decisions due to energy needs. He also explains that climate change poses threats to those banks and parts of the financial system that have assets concentrated in places vulnerable to extreme weather events.Billy is the President and CEO of Resources for the Future, a think tank focused on energy and the environment. He previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment and Energy at the US Treasury.
statistics, as well as what happens when elected officials undermine public trust in data.Erica served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017 and is currently Senior Economics Advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Michael is Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.
As the use of AI in finance becomes more pervasive -- in trading algorithms and credit underwriting, to insurance claims processing -- what benefits and risks do these systems pose? Gary Gensler joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how AI is lowering costs and broadening access to financial services, but also creating new challenges around explainability, bias, and accuracy.Gary is Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management as well as of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He served as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Along with Simon Johnson, he hosts the podcast Power and Consequences.
Some of the key economic challenges facing the U.S. include its large federal debt and the possibility of a fiscal crisis, as well as the disruptions (and perhaps promises) of the widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence. Greg Mankiw discussed these challenges in an EconoFact Ask Me Anything webinar held on October 15, 2025. This EconoFact Chats episode is an abridged recording of that webinar.Greg is the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He served as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration. He is the author of the bestselling Principles of Economics and Macroeconomics textbooks.EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription here: https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157Note: This podcast was first published on 16th November, 2025.
was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize.EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to Premium Subscribers. The $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber helps EconoFact bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription here: https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
s Resource on the economic consequences of the war in Iran. Panelists Binyamin Applebaum (New York Times), Nicholas Bloom (Stanford), Michael Klein (EconoFact) and David Victor (UC San Diego) discussed the energy market disruptions stemming from the war, how increased uncertainty has slowed hiring and investment, the bind facing the Federal Reserve as it confronts simultaneous supply and demand shocks, and the divergent energy policy responses emerging in the United States and Europe.Ask Me Anything Webinars are open to EconoFact Premium Subscribers. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157. The $50 annual fee supports EconoFact in its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public.
The COVID pandemic and the war with Iran highlight the vulnerabilities associated with international supply chains. But sourcing from low-cost producers and from countries that have an advantage in providing key inputs also contributes to greater productivity and a wider range of available goods. Chris Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the economic security challenges associated with a dependence on vital inputs like microchips and how to address vulnerabilities while maintaining the global linkages that foster innovation and prosperity.Chris is a Professor at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and the author of Chip War, which won the 2022 Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award.
Much has changed since the EconoFact Chats panel of journalists last met in late 2025; the bombing of Iran and its effects on oil prices and shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz, the Supreme Court’s decision on the illegality of tariffs enacted by IEEPA and the possibility that the government may have to repay tariff revenues, and the nomination of a new Chair for the Federal Reserve, and the arguments made before the Supreme Court on the attempted firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.This week, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Claire Jones of The Financial Times for a wide-ranging discussion on these, and other, pressing issues.
to highlight policies and programs that are effective in crime prevention, reducing recidivism, and helping the incarcerated re-enter society.Jennifer is Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures, and the host of Probable Causation.
s transition from an economy driven by manufacturing and services, to one driven by tech and information, and the effects of tariffs on prices and American manufacturing jobs.The next EconoFact Ask Me Anything Webinar on Tuesday, February 24th, 2026, at noon Eastern Time, which is open to all, will be with John Cassidy (The New Yorker) who will answer questions on, among other topics, his new book Capitalism and Its Critics. Subsequent monthly AMA webinars, such as the one with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, will be exclusively available to Premium Subscribers. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157. The $50 annual fee helps support EconoFact in its efforts to bring timely, accessible, and unbiased analyses on important economic and social policy issues.
Simon is the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he heads the Global Economics and Management Group. He served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund in 2007–2008 and was a co-recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2024.
s driving the higher cost of housing? What policies could help alleviate the challenge of housing unaffordability? Jeff Zabel joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these, and other, questions about housing in America.Jeff is a Professor of Economics at Tufts University. He is co-editor of the Journal of Housing Economics and serves on the editorial boards of Real Estate Economics and the Journal of Regional Science and Urban Economics.
In a recent article, The Economist Magazine noted that “talk about affordability mixes phantom concerns with real ones.” In this episode of EconoFact Chats, Jason Furman argues that “affordability,” which is not well defined, is not necessarily worse now than a year or two ago, or even decades ago. But he notes that there are real concerns as well -- especially with the costs of housing, childcare, and medical care. Jason discusses whether recent policies can address these concerns, and also highlights the scope for government actions to address the rising cost of living.Jason is the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard. He was previously the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.
s been nearly ten years since Britain voted to leave the European Union. The run-up to the referendum was marked by competing claims regarding the consequences of Brexit, with Leave supporters claiming Brexit would restore British sovereignty over economic and social policies, while Remain advocates warned of self-inflicted economic harm. What have the actual consequences of Brexit been? And what lessons does it offer for nations seeking to disengage from the global economy today? Nicholas Bloom joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his recent research on these questions.Nick is the William D. Eberle Professor in Economics at Stanford. He is also the Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been the subject of very public attacks by President Trump, and a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice. These are seen as efforts to influence the Fed to lower interest rates for short-run political advantage. But there has been widespread pushback to these efforts. Kenneth Kuttner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how and why central banks are set up to be insulated from political pressure, and the economic consequences of a failure of central bank independence.Ken is the Robert F. White Class of 1952 Professor of Economics at Williams College. He has also served as Assistant Vice President in the Research Departments of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
New technologies often result in significant change. Perhaps the most salient effect of automation has been labor displacement. At the beginning of the 20th century, agricultural employment gave way to more productive, and higher paying, manufacturing jobs. The growing middle class generated demand for new products and new industries. But more recent technological changes have shrunk manufacturing jobs with workers moving to lower-paying service employment. Even more recently, Artificial Intelligence may displace workers who are at the higher end of the income distribution. Eduardo Porter joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues, as well as cryptocurrencies.Eduardo is a columnist for The Washington Post where he is also a member of its editorial board. He has formerly written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg.Note: This podcast was first published on 17th November, 2024.
For many Americans, episodes of stress are often temporary. But for marginalized communities -- especially black people, and those living in poverty, stress is, too often, an ongoing part of life. And this has dire consequences on health and well-being. Our guest on EconoFact Chats this week, Arline Geronimus has done pioneering work in understanding the consequences of chronic stress, especially as it relates to maternal and infant health; contributing, counterintuitively, to poorer birth outcomes for babies born to older black mothers, as compared to those born to younger ones.Arline is a Professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan. She is also a member of the National Academy of Medicine of the National Academies of Science. Her newest book is “Weathering: The Extraordinary Stress of Ordinary Life in an Unjust Society.”Note: This podcast was first published on 28th May, 2023.
s retreat from global leadership.Note: This podcast was first published on 5th October, 2025.
Trade restrictions are a common theme on campaign trails, and the general public is often suspicious of the net benefits of trade. Are these suspicions warranted? This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein, and Kadee Russ of the University of California at Davis discuss the current landscape of international trade.Note: This podcast was first published on 5th October, 2020.
The US economy has faced many challenges in 2025: the direct effects of a government shutdown and the associated uncertainty because of the unavailability of economic statistics; the imposition of high, and varying, tariffs; concerns about affordability; and plunging consumer confidence. But, as Mark Zandi points out in this episode of EconoFact Chats, the economic fortunes of people vary across income groups, with the top third of the distribution benefitting from the strong stock market, the middle third concerned about their jobs and the cost of living, and the bottom third facing painful price increases, cuts in government support, and stalled hiring. Much remains uncertain as we finish the year and look ahead to 2026, and Mark discusses what to look for and how things may play out.Mark is Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions.
s tariffs, and the Democrats outperformed expectations in a few elections.This week, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Applebaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Claire Jones of The Financial Times to discuss these events, as well as recent shifts in consumer sentiment, Fed independence, inflation, and the impact of tariffs and lower immigration on the economy.
It's been over six months since the so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs -- a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, and additional country-specific tariffs determined by their trade surplus with the US -- came into effect. The Trump administration argued these tariffs would result in a stronger economy, and a revival of American manufacturing. Have they? Chad Bown joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the rollout and consequences of the sweeping tariffs thus far, and how they compare to the tariffs enacted during the first Trump administration.Chad is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Some of the key economic challenges facing the U.S. include its large federal debt and the possibility of a fiscal crisis, as well as the disruptions (and perhaps promises) of the widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence. Greg Mankiw discussed these challenges in an EconoFact Ask Me Anything webinar held on October 15, 2025. This EconoFact Chats episode is an abridged recording of that webinar.Greg is the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He served as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration. He is the author of the bestselling Principles of Economics and Macroeconomics textbooks.EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription here: https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
In a new report 'Measuring Access to Opportunity in the United States: A 10-Year Update,' The Annie E. Casey Foundation (AECF) notes that child poverty reduction has proved readily responsive to federal and state policy choices. The percentage of children living in poverty fell to a historic low of 5% in 2021, even as COVID slowed the economy, because programs like the expanded Child Tax Credit supported families. When these programs were wound down, even as the economy recovered, the child poverty rate rose, reaching 13% by 2024. Leslie Boissiere joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the report, highlighting the long-run economic and social costs of childhood poverty, and the role of public policy in addressing this problem.Leslie is the Vice President for External Affairs at the Annie E. Casey Foundation. She oversees the foundation's KIDS COUNT effort, as well as the areas of policy reform and advocacy, strategic communications, organizational effectiveness, and national partnerships.
The United States fostered a post-World War II rules-based international economic order that benefitted both itself and many other countries. But recent changes in United States’ policies have altered trade relationships and the international role of the dollar. Oleg Itskhoki joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the sources and consequences of these shifts in the international economic order, discussing topics like the role of an economic hegemon, recent outcomes in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets, and whether tariffs can reduce trade deficits. He also highlights the risks of a more fragmented world economy as the United States pursues a confrontational, rather than cooperative, international economic policy.Oleg is a Professor of Economics at Harvard. He was awarded the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal by the American Economic Association in 2022 which recognizes the American economist under the age of forty who is judged to have made the most significant contribution to economics.
In their new book 'Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone,' John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai highlight how personal finance markets in the US and across the globe often benefit the wealthy and more educated at the expense of those with fewer advantages. This feature of financial markets, along with the inherent difficulty in making financial decisions, makes it difficult for regular consumers to make sound decisions about investing and borrowing.John joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his book, offering practical advice on topics like saving for college, getting a mortgage, making investment decisions, and creating an emergency fund for hard times. He also proposes some solutions to make personal finance work better for everyone.John is the Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard University.
While it is often thought that adolescence begins and ends with puberty, new research shows that the development of cognitive skills, emotional development, and social skills that starts in the early teen years continues into the mid-twenties. In her new book 'Thrive,' Lisa Lawson, President and CEO of the Annie E. Casey Foundation, points out that failure to build on investments throughout this longer period of adolescence can result in missed mental and emotional growth, leaving young people less well equipped to lead independent, successful lives. Lisa joins EconoFact Chats to discuss her new book, and highlight how families, communities and public systems can support programs and policies that build strong, resilient young people.
This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an EconoFact Ask Me Anything Webinar held on September 17th featuring Tara Watson, Director of the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at the Brookings Institution. The AMA focused on the role of immigrants in the U.S. labor force, the extent and types of deportations seen currently, the economic effects of stepped-up immigration enforcement, and the availability of reliable immigration and deportation data.Tara is the John C. and Nancy D. Whitehead Chair, and a Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Her most recent book is 'The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in an Age of Fear.' EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
In a new article in Foreign Affairs, 'The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World?,' Adam Posen, the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues that the policies and institutions the US has helped put in place over the past eight decades have not only bolstered its own economic fortunes, but have helped much of the world thrive. Adam joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the article, and point out how the Trump administration's pursuit of an America first policy could render the US, and much of the world, less economically stable. He also discusses who might benefit from America's retreat from global leadership.
The post-war international economic order was based on two fundamental pillars: American leadership and multilateralism. Both of those are, to some extent, under threat today. The United States is on a different path with respect to international economic relations, than had been the case over the past decades. Increasing tariffs are just one example of a reversal of prior efforts aimed at greater globalization and more economic integration. This reversal has not just occurred in the United States: Brexit stands as a prime example. What have been the forces driving a splintering in globalization? Are there historical precedents for this? What type of international economic regime is likely to emerge? Professor Jeffry Frieden joins EconoFact Chats to address these questions and discuss present and past linkages between domestic politics and international economics.Jeff is Professor of International and Public Affairs and Political Science at Columbia University, and Professor of Government emeritus at Harvard University. His teaching and research focus on the politics of international economic relations.
The Trump Administration claims tariffs will help protect American jobs, revitalize manufacturing, and raise revenues, while keeping prices stable. While it may be too soon to evaluate some of these expected outcomes, pioneering efforts by Alberto Cavallo in gathering real time price data on goods, distinguished by their country of origin, makes it possible to analyze how tariffs are affecting prices. Alberto joins EconoFact Chats to discuss who bears the cost increases from the tariffs, the role of policy uncertainty in companies’ pricing decisions, and the cumulative effects of tariffs on prices.Alberto is the Thomas S. Murphy Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. He co-founded PriceStats, the leading private source of inflation statistics in over 20 countries.
Binyamin Applebaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Globe, Scott Horsley of NPR, and Claire Jones, the US Economics Editor The Financial Times join EconoFact Chats for a wide ranging discussion on the U.S. economy, focusing on the weaker than expected jobs reports, high inflation, the importance of reliable government statistics, the independence of the Federal Reserve, immigration enforcement, demographic shifts, and continued tariff uncertainty.
Less than a year after The Economist labeled the U.S. economy the 'envy of the world,' concerns are arising from disappointing jobs reports, slowing GDP growth, and rising prices. In this EconoFact Chats episode, Mark Zandi notes that tariffs and a restrictive immigration policy are contributing to the likelihood of recession and inflation, although he discounts the possibility of a return to the severe stagflation of the 1970s. He also highlights the risks posed by a ballooning national debt. On a positive note, Mark notes the contributions of the AI boom to the economy.Mark is the Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions.
This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything Webinar held on July 17th, 2025, with Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. The discussion focused on how populist diagnoses of social and economic issues often assume an unhelpful zero sum mindset, leading to poor policy proposals, and on how 'forcing events' can expand the bounds of what is a politically feasible solution.Michael's latest book is 'The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It).'EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
United States colleges and universities currently enrol about 900,000 international students, representing 5% of all students – although the percentage of foreign students varies widely across institutions. Many colleges and universities would be hurt by policies that limit the number of foreign students. The detrimental effects of these policies extend beyond institutions of higher education to local economies, companies that hire engineers, scientists, and programmers, and to the dynamism of the U.S. economy since immigrants educated in this country are vastly overrepresented as entrepreneurs. Furthermore, American higher education serves as an important source of soft power that bolsters America’s standing in the world. Arguments have been made about foreign students endangering national security and taking the places of American students. How should we weigh these concerns against the benefits of foreign students who represent an import export of services for this country? Nathan Grawe joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Nathan is the Lloyd P. Johnson-Norwest Professor of Economics at Carleton College. His most recent book is 'The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Change.'Note: This podcast was first published on 15 June, 2025.
The U.S. dollar is the most widely used currency in global commerce. Many commodities are priced in dollars. Much of world trade in goods and services, as well as in financial instruments, is denominated in dollars, even when U.S. residents are not party to either side of the transaction. U.S. Treasury bonds have been the world’s safe-haven asset.Has the U.S. benefited from the dollar's role in international trade and finance? Is dollar dominance waning under current U.S. policies? If so, what are the likely consequences? Paul Blustein joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Paul is a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is the author of 'King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World's Dominant Currency.'Note: This podcast was first published on 27 April, 2025.
Manufacturing employment has been declining as a share of total employment in the U.S. What's driving this decline? Does the reduction in manufacturing employment represent a natural progression as economies evolve? Can manufacturing jobs today offer a stable, well-paying means of employment for those without a college education? If not, what policies can help those without a college education find careers that offer a path to the middle class? Robert Lawrence joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Robert is the Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at the Harvard Kennedy School. He served as a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisors from 1998 to 2000. His latest book is 'Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth?'Note: This podcast was first published on 11th May, 2025.
Erica Groshen, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses the acronym AORTA to characterize good data; Accurate, Objective, Relevant, Trustworthy, and Accessible. This is apt since good data are the lifeblood of economic decision-making. But what happens if statistics are compromised by reduced staffing and resources, or by politically motivated manipulation? Erica joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the history and the role of the BLS, the importance of good data for decision-making by government, businesses, and families, and her concerns about political interference degrading the integrity of government statistics.Erica served as the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017. She is currently Senior Economics Advisor at the Cornell School of Industrial and Labor Relations, and a Research Fellow at the Upjohn Institute.Note: This podcast was first published on 9th March, 2025.
Most of the United States’ population growth is now due to immigration. Among these is an estimated 11 to 12 million undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants have been deported both through enforcement at the border and by being removed from within the United States. Recently, former President Trump has called for mass deportation of millions of people. How realistic is this goal? What would be the economic consequences of deporting even a fraction of the large number of people that Trump has called for? Does the threat of deportation have a chilling effect on those in this country legally? How would it affect communities that include both the undocumented and legal residents? Tara Watson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Tara is the Director of the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings. Her most recent book is 'The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in an Age of Fear,' co-authored with Kalee Thompson.Note: This podcast was first published on 6th October, 2024.
Reporting on economics often focuses on the 24-hour news cycle and the ups and downs of financial markets. But the stock market is not the economy, and Heather Long, in her career as an economic journalist, endeavored to explain how economic issues affected people’s everyday lives. Heather reflects on her career as an economic journalist, highlighting her efforts to look beyond broad statistics to interview workers, small business owners, and job seekers to get a more nuanced and deeper insight into the state of the economy and the wellbeing of people in different parts of the economy and at different levels of income.Heather is Chief Economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union. She served on the Washington Post’s editorial board from 2021 to 2025, and was the U.S. Economics Correspondent at the Post from 2017 to 2021. Prior to that, she was a Senior Economics reporter at CNN.
Stablecoins -- crypto-tokens whose value is pegged to fiat currencies -- aim to blend the stability of traditional government-issued money with the speed, decentralized nature, and reach of cryptocurrencies. They were created as an alternative to cryptocurrencies whose volatile prices make them impractical for purchases or for holding wealth. Stablecoins are increasingly used in transactions, remittances, and as a way to preserve wealth in high-inflation economies. What are the potential benefits and risks of widespread adoption of stablecoins? And what are governments in the U.S. and other countries doing to mitigate those risks, as well as to promote the use of stablecoins? Udaibir Das joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Udaibir is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, America.
This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of the EconoFact Ask Me Anything Webinar held on May 27th with Bill Gale, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Co-Director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Gale discusses the 'Big Beautiful Budget Bill,' noting that it will provide high-income households with large tax cuts, while likely lowering after tax resources for low-income households. He also stresses the importance of reining in the deficit, and outlines a few tax policy proposals that have broad consensus among economists -- notably lower tax rates, fewer deductions, a consumption tax, and a carbon tax.EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
The first half of 2025 has been marked by broadening macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. How is this uncertainty likely to affect the U.S. economy over the coming months? And over the longer term? Mark Zandi joins EconoFact Chats to point out that while an immediate recession is unlikely, policies on tariffs, university and research funding, immigration, the budget, and efforts to influence monetary policy can have corrosive effects on long term growth.Mark is the Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions.
The poverty rate among children is a crucial indicator of child well-being. Yet, the overall well-being of a child depends on more than just economic security. Education, health, and family and community, all play an important role. Leslie Boissiere of the Annie E. Casey Foundation joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the 2025 Kids Count Data Book report, which tracks trends in child well-being across these broad sets of indicators, disaggregated by geography, race and ethnicity. She notes encouraging reductions in child poverty, fewer teen births, more children with health insurance, and a rise in on-time high school graduation. Yet the latest data also shows a decline in reading and math scores, and an increase in chronic absenteeism.Leslie is the Vice President for External Affairs at the Annie E. Casey Foundation.
The Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs plays a key role in shaping how the United States engages with the world financial system. Jay Shambaugh, Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs in the Biden administration joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his time in office, focusing on negotiations with China over industrial subsidies and non-market trade barriers, foreign investments in sensitive US technologies, and the challenges of dealing with sovereign debt defaults given the wide array of lenders today. The discussion also focuses on the International Affairs Department's role in monitoring exchange rate policies, and its interactions with Congress, the White House, and other domestic agencies.Before his term as Undersecretary, Jay served on the Council of Economic Advisors. He is currently a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and the Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University.
EconoFact Chats regularly hosts a panel discussion with top economic journalists. Since the panel last met in March, the House passed the 'big, beautiful budget bill,' Moody’s has downgraded U.S. debt, universities face stiff funding challenges, and tariff policy continues to be volatile. Binyamin Appelbaum (The New York Times), Scott Horsley (NPR), Larry Edelman (Boston Globe), and Heather Long (The Washington Post) discuss how policy uncertainty is playing out on the ground, what the proposed spending cuts could mean for lower and middle income Americans, and whether an increasingly uncertain fiscal picture could affect the willingness of foreign investors to keep financing U.S. debt.
Since the mid-1990s, the U.S. social safety net has been geared towards policies that encourage and reward work. While steady jobs and decent wages are the surest routes out of poverty, evidence shows that safety-net work requirements rarely translate into higher employment among beneficiaries of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP–formerly known as “food stamps”). Diane Schanzenbach joins EconoFact Chats to explain how stricter mandates often push people off SNAP without pulling them into the labor market, a dynamic that becomes more relevant as Congress weighs bills that would make continued SNAP and Medicaid benefits contingent on having or actively seeking work.Diane is the Margaret Walker Alexander Professor of Human Development and Social Policy at Northwestern University. She is also a member of the Food and Nutrition Board of the National Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine. She recently testified in front of the House Committee on Agriculture on the issue of increasing SNAP's mandatory work requirements.
This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of the EconoFact Ask Me Anything Webinar held on April 22nd, featuring Maurice Obstfeld, former Chief Economist at the IMF, and a member of the Council of Economic Advisors. Maury answers questions on the role of international trade in the US economy, tariffs and their consequences, dollar weakness, and prospects for the U.S. and the global economy.EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
About one in five Americans receive retirement, survivor, disability, or supplemental income Social Security benefits. These payments represent a vital financial safety net, especially for retirees who have had modest lifetime earnings. This importance of Social Security makes reducing its benefits the “third rail” of American politics. But its pay-as-you-go structure – where today’s workers fund today’s retirees – threatens its fiscal solvency as fertility rates fall and aging baby boomers exit the labor force. Is there a way to keep the safety-net solvent? What's at stake if Social Security reform is unaddressed? Gopi Shah Goda joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Gopi is the Director of the Retirement Security Project, the Alice M. Rivlin Chair in Economic Policy, and Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at The Brookings Institution. She served as a Senior Economist for the Council of Economic Advisors in 2021 to 2022.
This EconoFact Chats episode is an abridged version of the EconoFact Ask Me Anything Webinar held on March 26th that featured John Campbell (Harvard), one of the leading authorities on finance and financial markets. John addressed questions on stock market performance, the links between financial markets and the broader economy, the need for consumer financial protection, and strategies for personal financial security.John's forthcoming book is 'Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make it Work for Everyone.'EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157
United States Treasury bonds have long been viewed as a highly liquid investment with very little risk of default. They have served as a safe haven for investors and also provided a benchmark interest rate for mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, and other bonds. Typically, Treasury bond yields fall at times of financial stress as demand for Treasury securities rise. But this time is different. Bond prices have fallen and yields have risen in the wake of the policy volatility of the past month. Jeremy Stein joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the reasons for the increase in interest rates, its possible consequences, and policies to calm the bond market.Jeremy is the Moise Y. Safra Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Previously, he served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. He was also an advisor to the Treasury Secretary during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
US federal debt is currently almost as large as annual national income, something not seen before the pandemic. Expenditures like interest payments on the debt, military spending, and Social Security cannot be easily trimmed, and the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs act are likely to be extended, adding an estimated $5 trillion to the debt over the next decade. What are the likely consequences for the economy of rising debt? And how will this affect people’s retirement, especially if there are cuts to Social Security? Wendy Edelberg and Ben Harris join EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Wendy is the director of the Hamilton Project and a Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at The Brookings Institution. She previously served as Chief Economist at the Congressional Budget Office. Ben is the Vice President and Director of Economic Studies at Brookings. He was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist at the Treasury Department in the Biden administration.
President Trump inherited an economy that was, at least in the aggregate, performing exceptionally well. Since taking office, however, the stock market has fallen, and there are heightened expectations of a slowdown due to the policies, and uncertainty from the shifts in policies, of the new Administration. Are these concerns well-founded? Or will tariffs, cuts to government jobs, and deregulation help usher in a stronger economy? Mark Zandi considers these issues on EconoFact Chats.Mark is Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation's largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation's largest community development financial institutions.
Tariffs are taxes. But unlike most taxes, politicians on both sides of the aisle are calling for maintaining or raising tariffs. The goal is to save jobs and raise revenue. But do tariffs help achieve these objectives? Kim Clausing joins EconoFact Chats to discuss her research on how tariffs negatively impact consumers, shift tax burdens away from the well-off toward lower-income consumers, adversely affect U.S. workers and industries, and invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners.Kim is the Eric M. Zolt Professor of Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law. She served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis in the U.S. Department of the Treasury during the first years of the Biden Administration.Note: This podcast was first posted on 16th June 2024.
Labeled by The Economist as 'the envy of the world' in October 2024, the US economy today is marked by growing fears of a recession amid aggressive tariffs, threats of tariffs, deregulation, and drastic employment cuts across the federal government. Despite the short-term pain, could the Trump administration's policies make the US economy stronger and more productive over the long run? Or is lasting turbulence, lower productivity and economic stagnation a more likely outcome? Heather Long (Washington Post), Greg Ip (Wall Street Journal), Scott Horsley (NPR), and Binyamin Appelbaum (New York Times) join EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.
In his 2012 book, 'A Capitalism for the People,' Luigi Zingales notes the deep economic problems that arise when people are rewarded for who you know, or even, who you pay off, rather than what you know, or your ability to produce and sell better goods and services. What are the broader consequences of this type of corruption that distorts outcomes like who gets a job, what is purchased, and what attributes determine economic success? What impact does corruption have on public trust in institutions? What can one do when norms that had protected market-based outcomes break down or prove insufficient? And what do the answers to these questions tell us about present circumstances? Luigi joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Luigi is the Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. He is also the Director at U. Chicago's Stigler Center.
The United States is an outlier in health insurance coverage. Almost all other high-income countries have near-universal coverage, while almost 10% of the non-elderly US population is uninsured. How did this come to be? And what can policymakers do to improve access to health insurance? Mark Shepard joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Mark is an associate professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, improvements in large language models have continued at an impressive clip, driving a surge of investment in new models, developing new products based on them, and in constructing data centres and other infrastructure needed to run AI models. What will the economic landscape look like as artificial intelligence becomes more pervasive? What are the production, technological, and geo-political challenges facing artificial intelligence development? And will the technology live up to its promise of making life better? Chris Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Chris is an Associate Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. He is also the author of 'Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,' which won the Financial Times Book of the Year Award in 2022.
Football and basketball teams at Division I universities generate billions in revenue. But the student-athletes themselves do not receive salaries. Should they? Most have scholarships for their tuitions, but to what degree are they students, as well as athletes? And how does the money raised through these big-ticket sports support other, less high-profile sports, and the academic mission of these colleges and universities, if at all? Andrew Zimbalist joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Andy is the Robert A. Woods Professor Emeritus of Economics at Smith College. He has consulted in the sports industry for numerous players' associations, cities, companies, teams, and leagues.Note: This podcast was first published on 18th December, 2022.
High intensity flooding events, storms, wildfires, and droughts are becoming more frequent in many parts of the world. Are there measures that can help mitigate the number and severity of these events? What adaptations could make fires, storms, and floods less destructive? And is there a greater role for the government and the private sector when it comes to catastrophic risk insurance? Galina Hale joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Galina is a Professor of Economics at UC Santa Cruz. She previously served as a Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Much like national economies, countries that economically interact with each other need rules to help ensure markets work well, and that economic outcomes accord with some understanding of fairness and equity. While such rules can constrain what a country does, for much of the post-war era, nations have recognized the benefits of international cooperation and the importance of a stable set of rules. Yet, as populism and disdain towards globalization grows, global governance will likely retreat in scope. Could a more circumscribed understanding of global governance help domestic economies do better than if they faced no constraints from global governance rules? Dani Rodrik joins EconoFact Chats to discuss.Dani is the Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
The basic principles of economics are not only worthwhile reading for students, but for the wider public, and perhaps especially, for those involved in policy. Greg Mankiw, the author of best-selling textbooks for Macroeconomics and Principles of Economics joins EconoFact Chats to highlight how a wider understanding of economic principles such as trade-offs, opportunity costs, how people respond to incentives, the benefits of trade, and others can lead to better policy outcomes.Greg is the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. A leading researcher in macroeconomics, he has held numerous high-level policy positions, most notably serving as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors in the George W. Bush administration.
In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War. This week on EconoFact Chats, Roger Lowenstein describes how Lincoln and Chase revolutionized the role of the federal government, played a crucial part in the Union Army’s victory, and helped forge a national identity – a story that offers a mirror to the current debates over the role of government in building infrastructure and financing higher education as well as the burden of the national debt.Roger reported for The Wall Street Journal for more than a decade. This interview draws from his just-published book 'Ways and Means: Lincoln and His Cabinet and the Financing of the Civil War.'Note: This podcast was first posted on 13th March 2022.
Immigration promises to be a key issue in the U.S. Presidential elections. Candidates from both parties favor limits but differ on the extent of restrictions. Immigration is important for a vibrant economy in a country with a low rate of native population growth. What role has immigration played in U.S. economic and demographic growth in recent decades? What has been the impact, if any, on employment and wages among the native-born? What are the likely impacts of restricting immigration for particular industries and for the economy as a whole? Giovanni Peri, founding director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Giovanni is a Professor in the Department of Economics at UC Davis. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.Note: This podcast was first posted on 7th July 2024.
Both presidential candidates have supported tariffs, albeit at very different levels. Can tariffs bring back manufacturing jobs, reduce the trade deficit, and provide substantial revenues? Responding to a recent article in The Atlantic, Maurice Obstfeld and Kim Clausing highlight that steep, across the board tariffs, like those candidate Trump proposes, will prove costly to US consumers and producers, are unlikely to revive manufacturing, will have little effect on the trade deficit, will generate minimal revenues, will raise the prices, and will invite retaliation. Maury joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these points, as well as to suggest other policies to achieve the goals that populists argue tariffs would realize.Maury is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and an Emeritus Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley. He served as a member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, and as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund.Note: This podcast was first posted on 13th October 2024.
A center-right economic policy agenda has traditionally meant a focus on lower marginal tax rates, fiscal prudence, an openness to immigration, free trade and globalization. In recent years however, there has been significant change in the Republican Party's stance on some of these issues -- especially trade and immigration. Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) joins EconoFact Chats to highlight some of the factors driving these changes, and to discuss whether current Republican views on trade and immigration are likely to stay over coming election cyclesMichael is the Director of Economic Policy Studies, and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at AEI. He also serves on EconoFact's Board of Advisors.Note: This podcast was first posted on 24th March 2024.
President-elect Trump's campaign promises included imposing broad tariffs to bolster U.S. manufacturing jobs, pursuing mass deportations to free jobs for U.S. citizens and ease the housing crunch, and assuming a greater role in setting monetary policy. How likely is it that these policies will be enacted and, if so, what would be their possible consequences? Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss the feasibility and probable outcomes of the President-elect’s stated economic plans.
Home insurance has traditionally protected people from catastrophic losses of what is, for many, their most valuable asset. But climate change has contributed to the increasing frequency and severity of destructive weather events and wildfires. Widespread losses stress the solvency of insurance markets while higher premiums contribute to lower rates of coverage. The challenges facing home insurance markets has adverse implications for real estate markets, mortgage providers, people hoping to afford a house, and government programs that provide insurance. David Marlett discusses the sources and consequences of these challenges and strategies for better risk management.David is a Professor of Risk Management at Appalachian State University.
The share of Americans working a full day from home rose from 7% in 2019 to 60% in the immediate wake of COVID in 2020. This share has now fallen to 25%, still well above its pre-COVID rate. What have the last four years revealed about the effects of working from home on productivity? Are employers right in worrying about shirking? What do employees like, and dislike, about remote work? Do they now prefer working from home, returning to their offices, or some hybrid combination of the two? Nick Bloom answers these questions and discusses how a new configuration of work location choice could best serve the interests of companies and their employees in this EconoFact Chats episode.A co-founder at the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, Nick is a Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Does the outcome of the 2024 election suggest a realignment of traditional voting patterns? Early data points to continuity along some dimensions, such as an expected anti-incumbency vote against Democrats. But there were also notable shifts among certain groups. For example, young people, who had largely tilted towards Democrats in recent election cycles, swung by more than 20 points towards Republicans. This shift was even more pronounced among young men of color with lower levels of education. David Lazer joins EconoFact Chats to discuss this, and other notable shifts in voting patterns in the 2024 election, and the likelihood that these changes will persist.David is a University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Computer Sciences at Northeastern University. He is the director of Northeastern's Internet and Democracy Initiative, co-directs the Civic Healthy Institutions Project.
New technologies often result in significant change. Perhaps the most salient effect of automation has been labor displacement. At the beginning of the 20th century, agricultural employment gave way to more productive, and higher paying, manufacturing jobs. The growing middle class generated demand for new products and new industries. But more recent technological changes have shrunk manufacturing jobs with workers moving to lower-paying service employment. Even more recently, Artificial Intelligence may displace workers who are at the higher end of the income distribution. Eduardo Porter joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues, as well as cryptocurrencies.Eduardo is a columnist for The Washington Post where he is also a member of its editorial board. He has formerly written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg.
Japan's economy was seen as something of a juggernaut in the post World War II era, with growth averaging about 10% during the 1950s and 60s. Yet, in subsequent decades, with a stock market crash, and the bursting of a real estate bubble, Japan entered a period of stagnation and deflation, from which it is only now emerging. What drove Japan's rapid post-war growth? Why did growth stall, and reverse? And are there lessons from the Japanese experience relevant to the U.S. economy today? Paul Sheard joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Paul has been a Professor at Osaka University and a visiting scholar at the Bank of Japan, and at Stanford University. He was also Japan's strategist for Baring Asset Management, and has held chief economist positions at Lehman Brothers, Nomura Securities, and Standard & Poor's.
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, points out that the American economy is currently the envy of the world. The outcome of the Presidential election could change the course of the economy since the two candidates have put forward very different policies. One key difference is the size and scope of tariffs. High and broad-based tariffs would raise prices which would have knock-on effects on monetary policy, growth, and government deficits. Another difference is the promise of large-scale deportations. This would adversely affect the number of workers available for many industries – for example, a shortfall in construction workers would contribute to higher housing prices.Overall, the candidates’ policies reflect very different orientations, and quite distinct views of the economy. Mark joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these differences, and their implications.
Immigration policy has been called “the third rail” of American politics, with intense feelings on both sides of the issue. In this charged environment, it is important to know the facts about immigration, especially as they relate to economic outcomes. Consultants at Analysis Group, an economic consulting firm headquartered in Boston, published an extensive study of the economic impact of immigration in the United States in September 2024. Two of the co-authors of that report, Jee-Yeon K. Lehmann and Yao Lu, join EconoFact Chats to discuss their findings, highlighting the effects of immigration on wages, jobs, housing, innovation, and productivity.Jee-Yeon K. Lehmann is a Managing Principal, and Yao Lu is a Vice President at The Analysis Group.
Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. fell by 12.7% between May 2023 and 2024. As the Office of National Drug Control Policy notes, this marks the largest recorded reduction in overdose deaths. It also marks six consecutive months of reported decreases. What has driven the recent declines? Which policies and interventions have proven particularly effective? And what work still needs to be done where overdose death rates are still rising? Alicia Sasser Modestino joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Alicia is an Associate Professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, and Economics at Northeastern University, where she also serves as Research Director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy.
The economy often figures as a major topic of debate in the lead-up to elections. This election cycle is no exception. While both Presidential candidates have frequently discussed recent economic developments including inflation, trade, tariffs, infrastructure spending, and industrial policy, what economic policies are they likely to try implement if elected? And what impact could those policies have? Binyamin Applebaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of the Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss.
The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act was among the most sweeping realignments of the U.S. tax code in over three decades. It lowered tax rates, simplified taxes, raised the government debt, and was regressive, benefitting people who are well off more than the middle-class and the poor. But many of the Act's provisions are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless action is taken to preserve them. What would the expiration, or the continuation, of these provisions mean for people’s tax burdens, government debt, and the performance of the American economy? Bill Gale joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Bill is an economist at the Brookings Institution, and is co-director of The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. His most recent book is 'Fiscal Therapy: Curing America's Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future.'
Economies have been subjected to profound disruptions from technological change in the past -- from the adoption of weaving machines in the 19th century, to the mechanization of agriculture, and the use of robotics in manufacturing. Yet, these disruptions very often led to a broad increase in societal wealth, and the creation of entirely new occupations. Will generative AI both disrupt and benefit economies? Michael Strain joins EconoFact Chats to make a case for AI optimism, highlighting how America's experiences with technology-driven disruption have proved a net benefit historically.Mike is the Director of Economic Policy Studies, and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. He is also a member of EconoFact's board of advisors.
Charitable giving in the United States as a percentage of national income, about 2%, is significantly higher than the comparable percentage in other rich countries. How do people decide which causes to support? One approach is “effective altruism” which focuses on what’s important (primarily saving lives, no matter where), what’s effective but neglected (saving lives in extremely poor countries), and what’s tractable (by being able to quantify the efficacy of charity). Jonathan Meer joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these tenets, the assumptions behind them, whether charity can, and should, replace the role of government assistance, and offers some critiques of effective altruism as a way to make the world a better place.Jonathan is a Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University.
The United States bills itself as a land of opportunity; where economic and social advancement depend on abilities, skills, and drive, rather than the circumstances into which one is born. But is this characterization accurate? How does the U.S. compare to other countries in terms of socio-economic mobility across generations? And does the ability to change one's economic lot differ much by race, income, and national origin?Steven Durlauf of the Harris School, at the University of Chicago joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues, and to highlight ways policymakers can broaden opportunity for socio-economic advancement across racial and income groups in the U.S.Steven is the Director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth, Inequality, and Mobility at the University of Chicago.Note: This podcast was first published on 18th June, 2023.
Middle-income jobs have been declining over the past decades, leaving behind a polarized workforce, with one group of people doing high-skilled, well remunerated work, and another growing set, that are in low-wage, relatively economically insecure positions, that don't have much of a career ladder.Automation, globalization, and the shrinking role of unions have all contributed to the hollowing out of middle-wage jobs, exacerbating wage inequality among American workers. In the current economic recovery, however, there are hopeful signs that labor demand, and worker activism might improve conditions for low wage workers. This week on EconoFact Chats, David Autor discusses the economic forces behind the hollowing out of the middle class, and what types of policies can help expand opportunities for those left behind. David is Ford Professor in the MIT Department of Economics and co-director of the NBER Labor Studies Program.Note: This podcast was first published on 19th December, 2021.
How do people come to their views on issues like income inequality, tax policy, and immigration policy? What is the role of personal experience in forming these opinions? Do people’s views change when they are confronted with new information that challenges their existing ideas? This week on EconoFact Chats, Stefanie Stantcheva explains how divergent social and political views can become entrenched, and why facts alone often aren’t sufficient to change one's mind.Stefanie is the Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University and founder of its Social Economics Lab.Note: This podcast was first published on 3rd April, 2022.
To what extent does where you live determine how you live? In particular, does growing up in a poor neighborhood reduce one's chances for economic and social advancement, greater educational achievement, and better health? Poor people typically live in poor neighborhoods. But would those people do better living in better-off settings? If so, what government policies could help? To discuss these issues, Lawrence Katz of Harvard University joins EconoFact Chats.Larry is the Elizabeth Allison Professor of Economics at Harvard. He served as Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. His research focuses on labor economics, and on the impact of public policies designed to address social problems. He led the Moving to Opportunity study, a major randomized housing mobility experiment sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.Note: This podcast was first published on 23rd October, 2022.
There's evidence that economically better-off voters tilt Republican. But there is a paradox. While richer voters tilt Republican, richer states tend to vote Democrat. To discuss this apparent paradox, as well as issues of poll accuracy, and how much the state of the economy has mattered in recent mid-term elections, EconoFact Chats welcomes Andrew Gelman of Columbia University.Andrew is a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia. His work has focused on a range of topics, including why it is rational to vote, and why campaign polls are so variable, when elections are often predictable.Note: This podcast was first published on 6th November, 2022.
Doug Irwin joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week to discuss how ideas about free trade have changed over the last 250 years. While most economists today agree that free trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choice, some of the objections to trade expressed by historical figures ranging from Alexander Hamilton to John Maynard Keynes still resonate in contemporary debates.The author of numerous books, including most recently, 'Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy,' Irwin breaks down their arguments while explaining some of the central concepts of international trade relevant to the world economy today. The conversation explores the relationship between trade and industrialization and the role of technological change in manufacturing employment. Note: This podcast was first published on 7th June, 2021.
Presidential candidates promise economic prosperity. Yet views on how to achieve economic prosperity can diverge significantly -- as they do between President Biden and Former President Trump. How likely is it that their proposed policies on taxes, immigration, tariffs, and subsidies will foster economic growth, low inflation, a vibrant labor market, and a healthy macroeconomy? Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the macroeconomics of Biden vs. Trump based on a new analysis co- authored with Brendan La Cerda and Justin Begley.
Many view the greater integration of the world economy as a relatively modern phenomenon. Christopher Meissner puts the current level of international trade, the depth of global capital markets, and immigration in historical context, drawing on his new book One From the Many: The Global Economy Since 1850. Christopher explains how both technological and political changes since the mid-19th century have affected the integration of the world economy. He also discusses how trade, capital flows, and migration have created benefits that made many people better off, but this has been uneven and some people have been left behind.Christopher is a Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Immigration promises to be a key issue in the U.S. Presidential elections. Candidates from both parties favor limits but differ on the extent of restrictions. Immigration is important for a vibrant economy in a country with a low rate of native population growth. What role has immigration played in U.S. economic and demographic growth in recent decades? What has been the impact, if any, on employment and wages among the native-born? What are the likely impacts of restricting immigration for particular industries and for the economy as a whole? Giovanni Peri, founding director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Giovanni is a Professor in the Department of Economics at UC Davis. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The official poverty rate in the U.S. stood at about 11.5% in 2022. But as Jeff Fuhrer highlights, this is almost certainly a vast undercounting. He estimates that about 40% of people struggle to afford basic necessities like food, housing, and transportation. He joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why official poverty measures underestimate poverty, what this means for a nation that prides itself on meritocracy, and how policies to alleviate poverty offer a win-win opportunity.Jeff served for nearly four decades in the Federal Reserve System, first at the Board of Governors in Washington, DC, followed by more than 25 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Currently, he is a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a Foundation Fellow at the Eastern Bank Foundation. He is the author of the award-winning 2023 book 'The Myth that Made Us: How False Beliefs about Racism and Meritocracy Broke Our Economy (and How to Fix It).'
The 2022 CHIPS Act allocated over $50 billion in incentives to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research and development. Two years on, how successful has the Act been in bringing semiconductor fabrication to the United States? More broadly, what was the rationale behind offering sizeable incentives to onshore chip production? And as other countries offer subsidies of their own, what effects are we likely to see in the manufacturing dynamics of both foundational and more advanced semi-conductors? Chris Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other questions.Chris is an Associate Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. He is also the author of the bestselling book 'Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.'
Tariffs are taxes. But unlike most taxes, politicians on both sides of the aisle are calling for maintaining or raising tariffs. The goal is to save jobs and raise revenue. But do tariffs help achieve these objectives? Kim Clausing joins EconoFact Chats to discuss her research on how tariffs negatively impact consumers, shift tax burdens away from the well-off toward lower-income consumers, adversely affect U.S. workers and industries, and invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners.Kim is the Eric M. Zolt Professor of Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law. She served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis in the U.S. Department of the Treasury during the first years of the Biden Administration.
China's share of manufacturing exports rose from just over 1% of the world's total in 1990, to almost one-fifth today. Research by Gordon Hanson and his co-authors documented how the 'China Shock' led to factory closures and job losses in places that had been producing apparel, shoes, furniture, simple electronics, and other goods that China now exported. Tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019 did not reverse these effects and lead to job recovery. But, despite this, Hanson shows there was a political benefit to these trade restrictions.Gordon is the Peter Wertheim Professor of Urban Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he co-directs the Reimagining the Economy Project.
Electric vehicles are thought to represent a partial, but important solution to realizing net-zero emissions goals. Toward this end, the European Union, China, Japan, South Korea, and several U.S. states have declared their intention to ban gasoline and diesel cars. But how realistic is it to move to a fully electric vehicle fleet? And how desirable is this goal? David Rapson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.David is a Chancellor’s Leadership Professor in the Economics Department at the University of California, Davis. He also serves as an economic policy advisor to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Discussions about the circular economy, which emphasizes sharing, reusing, repairing, and recycling existing materials -- has traditionally been the remit of engineers, architects, and sociologists. Is there a role for economists in furthering our understanding of, and in fostering an economy where little is wasted? Don Fullerton of the University of Illinois joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other issues.Don has served as lead author for an assessment report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and as director of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Environmental Program.
The use of economic sanctions has surged in recent decades. But what does the evidence say about their effectiveness in influencing the actions of other countries? And under what conditions are sanctions more likely to achieve their goals? Daniel Drezner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Dan is a Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and a non-resident senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy, and the Washington Post.
U.S. unemployment remains low while inflation has fallen, even though it remains above its 2 percent target. But there remain public concerns about the economy. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss some of the sources of current economic discontentment among voters, as well as issues related to the longer-run performance of the economy, such as inequality, housing, and manufacturing competitiveness.
“Grexit,” Greece dropping out of the Eurozone, seemed the most likely outcome of that country’s debt crisis in the early 2010s. There were fears that Grexit would be followed by a more widespread splintering of the Eurozone. But Greece and its creditors came to an agreement that enabled the country to service its debt and contributed to its subsequent recovery (and the preservation of the Eurozone). In a striking turnaround, Greece was named the 2023 “Country of the Year” by The Economist magazine. Charles Dallara (Partners Group) recounts the resolution of this crisis, the Greek recovery, and his role in getting Greece and its creditors to come to agreement, in his new book 'Euroshock: How the Largest Debt Restructuring in History Helped Save Greece and Preserve the Eurozone,' which he discusses in this EconoFact Chats episode, along with the lessons of this experience for the current high-debt conditions today.Charles is Chairman and Advisory Partner at Partners Group. At the time of the Greek crisis he was the Managing Partner of the Institute for International Finance. Before that he spent nearly four decades working on international economic policy issues, including at the United States Treasury.
The spring 2024 edition of the IMF's influential World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects 'steady but slow' growth of the world economy over the next two years. But Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as among the world’s leading expert in international economics, notes that while the recovery from the pandemic has proved surprisingly resilient, the WEO forecast could be derailed by the buildup of unsustainable debt, rising great-power competition, the adverse effects of accelerating climate change or another pandemic.Maury is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics Emeritus at UC Berkeley. He served as a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, and from 2015 to 2018, as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund.
How can international trade policy be aligned with global commitments to reduce inequality, transition to a clean energy future, and promote sustainable development? Joel Trachtman, a founding partner of the Remaking the Global Trading System for a Sustainable Future Project joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the group’s new report, focusing on the natural links between trade and sustainable development goals as well as how trade policy can reconcile possible trade-offs between economic efficiency and sustainability goals.Joel is the Henry J. Braker Professor of Commercial Law at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University.
About one-fifth of women who graduated from college between 1900 and 1920 were in the labor force in their mid to late twenties. In contrast, more than four-fifths of women graduating from college between 1980 and 2000 worked outside the home in their mid to late twenties. A flip side of this is the proportion of women married by age 30; 50% for those who graduated college between 1900 and 1920 and about 25% for those graduating between 1980 and 2000.
These statistics reflect choices that women have made and continue to make about balancing a career with raising children, and the choices that men have made and continue to make as well. On this episode of EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein speaks with Claudia Goldin of Harvard University about her recent book, Career and Family: Women's Century-Long Journey toward Equity, highlighting a wealth of statistics and examining cultural shifts shaping these choices.
Claudia is the Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University. She is a former President of the American Economic Association, and co-directs the National Bureau of Economic Research's Gender in the Economy Study Group.
Note: This podcast was first posted on 29th January, 2023.
Economic policies affect people's lives, but the policies themselves can seem arcane. Writing about economics in an interesting, accessible, and compelling fashion contributes importantly to the public’s understanding. Catherine Rampell, an award winning columnist for the Washington Post, shares her thoughts on how to convey key insights on economic issues in this episode of EconoFact Chats.
Catherine is an opinion columnist at The Washington Post. She also appears on CNN, and PBS News Hour. Notable awards recognizing her work include the Online Journalism Award for Commentary, and the Weidenbaum Center Award for Evidence-based Journalism.
Note: This podcast was first posted on 23rd April, 2023.
For many Americans, episodes of stress are often temporary. But for marginalized communities -- especially black people, and those living in poverty, stress is, too often, an ongoing part of life. And this has dire consequences on health and well-being. Our guest on EconoFact Chats this week, Arline Geronimus has done pioneering work in understanding the consequences of chronic stress, especially as it relates to maternal and infant health; contributing, counterintuitively, to poorer birth outcomes for babies born to older black mothers, as compared to those born to younger ones.
Arline is a Professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan. She is also a member of the National Academy of Medicine of the National Academies of Science. Her newest book is “Weathering: The Extraordinary Stress of Ordinary Life in an Unjust Society.”
Note: This podcast was first posted on 28th May, 2023.
Do admissions committees of the most selective colleges consider family income along with applicants’ academic accomplishments, athletic achievements, legacy status, and extra-curricular activities? Given the outsized benefits of attending an “Ivy-plus” college (the eight Ivy league colleges plus Chicago, Duke, Stanford, and MIT), understanding whether children from highest-income families enjoy higher rates of admission compared to middle-class applicants with similar credentials is critical for understanding ongoing privilege and for considering policies to broaden opportunity and promote social advancement.
David Deming joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his findings on these issues, drawing on his latest paper 'Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges,’ co-authored with Raj Chetty and John Friedman.
David is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School, and a Professor of Education and Economics at the Harvard Graduate School of Education.
Economists tend to think of technological change as a good thing. But, as Daron Acemoglu, and Simon Johnson highlight in their new book 'Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity,' the path technological development takes has, for millennia, been linked with political power and to prevailing ideas of how to attain progress. And often the political and social milieu served to concentrate the gains from technological change to a privileged few.
Simon Johnson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his new book, highlighting what the driving vision for technological progress has been over various periods of development, the broader social impact of inventions that come about, and whether technological progress can be made more responsive to broader societal needs.
Simon is the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund in 2007-08.
Founded with the mandate of overseeing a stable international currency system in the Bretton Woods era, over the last decades, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has seen its role shift to coordinating debt relief. Often, such debt relief has been contingent on spending cuts, and other measures that put a stressed country's balance sheet on more stable footing. IMF conditionality is viewed by some as necessary medicine, and by others, as punitive. But how did the IMF come to be the arbitrator of crisis countries' policies? How does the IMF operate? And has it been capable of self-analysis, and when necessary, change its approach?
Charles Collyns joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. A Senior Advisor at EconoFact, Charles previously served as the Director of the Independent Evaluation Office at the International Monetary Fund, and before that, as Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance. He was the Assistant Secretary for International Finance at the US Treasury Department from 2010 to 2013.
While much of the recent debate about the U.S. debt ceiling centered on spending cuts, debt and deficits can also be addressed through raising revenue. One source of government revenue is taxes on corporations. What are the arguments for raising the corporate tax rate? What would be the effects of higher corporate taxes? A substantial increase in revenues? A fairer tax system? Reduced entrepreneurship? Greater offshoring? Lower wages? And which companies would be affected by higher taxes? Kimberly Clausing joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.
Kim is the Eric M. Zolt Professor of Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law.
D.W. Griffith's 1915 film The Birth of a Nation, a fictional portrayal of the KKK's founding, is America's first blockbuster. It's also a film laden with racist overtones, and, as Desmond Ang of Harvard University highlights in a recent American Economic Review article; a film that has had marked effects on racially-motivated violence.
Desmond joins EconoFact to discuss how the relative novelty of cinema at the turn of the 20th century, and the limited number of counties with the wherewithal to show films, make it possible to identify how screenings of The Birth of a Nation increased the frequency of racial violence, and support for the KKK. He also highlights how news, and entertainment media today might be polarizing audiences.
Desmond is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy School at Harvard University.
The recent U.S. debt-ceiling negotiations included demands for cutting funding for Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program. How much would cuts to these and other social safety net programs reduce government spending by? And at what cost to its beneficiaries, that comprised about 3 in 10 people, including nearly half of all U.S. children, in 2019? Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other issues concerning the U.S. social safety net.
Melissa is a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland. She is also the director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.
The United States bills itself as a land of opportunity; where economic and social advancement depend on abilities, skills, and drive, rather than the circumstances into which one is born. But is this characterization accurate? How does the U.S. compare to other countries in terms of socio-economic mobility across generations? And does the ability to change one's economic lot differ much by race, income, and national origin?
Steven Durlauf of the Harris School, at the University of Chicago joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues, and to highlight ways policymakers can broaden opportunity for socio-economic advancement across racial and income groups in the U.S.
Steven is the Director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth, Inequality, and Mobility at the University of Chicago.
EconoFact Chats regularly hosts a panel interview with the distinguished economic journalists Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post.
In this latest installment, the panel has a wide-ranging discussion, including on the topics of: the fight over the debt limit, its resolution, and the possible consequences of this political fight (Moody’s notes that the United States has one of the least affordable debt burdens among advanced economies); the debate the over sources of current inflation, policies to bring it down, and whether the Federal Reserve should continue to have 2 percent as its preferred inflation target rate; and the Administration’s arguments for, and possible limits to, reshaping the American economy through policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act.
Uncertainty affects companies’ investment and hiring decisions, as well as people’s choices about buying big-ticket durable goods like cars or houses. There are different types of uncertainty. Risk arises when you know the likelihood of outcomes but not what will occur, as happens with flipping a coin. Ambiguity reflects a situation in which the likelihood or effects of outcomes are much less clear, as with the consequences of COVID or climate change. Both play important, and somewhat distinct roles in decision-making. Nicholas Bloom (Stanford) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week, to discuss the role of uncertainty, and its patterns across countries and time.
Nick is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship in 2022.
Note: This podcast was first posted on 19th February, 2023.
For many Americans, episodes of stress are often temporary. But for marginalized communities -- especially black people, and those living in poverty, stress is, too often, an ongoing part of life. And this has dire consequences on health and well-being. Our guest on EconoFact Chats this week, Arline Geronimus has done pioneering work in understanding the consequences of chronic stress, especially as it relates to maternal and infant health; contributing, counterintuitively, to poorer birth outcomes for babies born to older black mothers, as compared to those born to younger ones.Arline is a Professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan. She is also a member of the National Academy of Medicine of the National Academies of Science. Her newest book is “Weathering: The Extraordinary Stress of Ordinary Life in an Unjust Society.”
These are challenging times for central bankers, not only in the United States but worldwide. Inflation in the twenty countries in the Eurozone was 6.9 percent in March 2023, almost two percentage points higher than in the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responding to inflation in a similar fashion to the Federal Reserve, by raising interest rates. But there are concerns that these policy moves could cause a recession and threaten banks and financial institutions. Higher interest rates also make government debt more expensive to service, at a time when debt is already high in the wake of COVID.A person uniquely well qualified to discuss central bank policy in the Eurozone is Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank and a member of its executive board. On the eve of the 25th anniversary of the ECB, he joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the current challenges affecting the Euro Area, as well as the ECB's policies.
This spring, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed and First Republic Bank failed and was sold to J.P. Morgan Chase. The $532 billion in assets of these banks exceeded the inflation adjusted value of assets of the 25 banks that failed in 2008. Why did these banks fail? Are they the first three failures in what could be a string of bank collapses? Or did the action of regulators stem the crisis? What policies are needed to make banks more resilient? EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeremy Stein to discuss these issues.Jeremy is a Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 2012 to 2014, and served as a senior advisor to the Treasury Secretary and on the staff of the National Economic Council during the global financial crisis.
The U.S. government could default on its debt obligations by June 1st if Congress doesn't raise or suspend the debt ceiling. This would have far-reaching consequences in the United States and around the world. Why does the U.S. even have a debt limit when virtually no other country does? How often has the debt ceiling been raised in the past? What are the options to avoid default if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling? And what would be the likely consequences of a default? To address these questions, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Bill Gale of the Brookings Institution.Bill is widely recognized as one of the country's top experts on public finance. He is the author of ‘Fiscal Therapy: Curing Americans' Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future.’
The maternal mortality rate in the U.S. is three to four times that of comparably wealthy countries. Furthermore, it is much higher for Black women than White women, and for poor women than for rich women. Strikingly, high income Black mothers have the same risk of dying in the first year following childbirth as the poorest white mothers. What accounts for high maternal mortality in the United States as compared to other rich countries, and for the racial and income differences within this country. What can policy do to ensure better outcomes?Petra Persson and Maya Rossin-Slater join EconoFact Chats to discuss these important questions. Maya is a Professor in the Department of Health Policy at Stanford University. Petra is a Professor at Stanford's Department of Economics.
Economic policies affect people's lives, but the policies themselves can seem arcane. Writing about economics in an interesting, accessible, and compelling fashion contributes importantly to the public’s understanding. Catherine Rampell, an award winning columnist for the Washington Post, shares her thoughts on how to convey key insights on economic issues in this episode of EconoFact Chats.Catherine is an opinion columnist at The Washington Post. She also appears on CNN, and PBS News Hour. Notable awards recognizing her work include the Online Journalism Award for Commentary, and the Weidenbaum Center Award for Evidence-based Journalism.
2.3 billion people, or 30% of the world's population, are food insecure. This isn't just a problem in low-income countries – an estimated 34 million people in the United States, including one out of every eight children, have constrained diets because of a lack of access to food. Furthermore, malnutrition and obesity are common since most people’s diets have some deficiencies, or some excesses because of the costs of food, and a lack of knowledge about what constitutes healthy eating.What are the causes of hunger? What makes for a healthy diet, and what does it cost to provide this to a family, both in the United States, and around the world? Will Masters joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these and other questions.Will a professor at the Friedman School of Nutrition at Tufts University. He is an elected fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
While China's rapid economic growth has made it an attractive target for foreign investments, it is not straightforward to know how much of one's portfolio includes exposure to Chinese companies. As Matteo Maggiori notes, much of the increasing investment in China is through shell companies in offshore markets like the Cayman Islands. Matteo joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the economic, regulatory and fiscal implications of investments in tax havens, and of international investment more generally.Matteo is the Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a director of the Global Allocation Project. He received the American Finance Association’s Fischer Black Prize in 2021.
Much of the demand for automation in richer countries - whether it be for self-checkout machines or driverless trucks - is driven by labor scarcity. And as populations in these countries age, this scarcity will become more acute. Yet, as Lant Pritchett highlights in a recent Foreign Affairs article, globally, labor remains abundant. Rather than devoting vital high-level scientific and technological knowledge as well as entrepreneurship to address these shortages, a far more efficient solution is to simply allow greater immigration from labor-abundant countries, whose workers would welcome these employment opportunities. Lant discusses the broad economic arguments for, as well as the political and social concerns against, greater international labor mobility in this EconoFact Chats episode. Lant is research director of the Labor Mobility Partnerships. He has worked at the World Bank and has taught at Harvard, Oxford, and the London School of Economics.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank raised the specter of a broader financial and economic crisis. This seems to have been averted by the decision to ensure all deposits; but questions remain about banks’ risk-taking, the adequacy of regulation, and whether continuing interest rate hikes will further imperil the financial system.Moderating the rise in interest rates, however, counters the efforts to bring down inflation, which continues to be well above its target rate. Will the Federal Reserve recalibrate its efforts to tackling inflation? What do regulatory failures mean for future policies regarding banking supervision and oversight? To discuss these issues Econofact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Applebaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post.
The rise of remote work has been among the more persistent labor-market changes engendered by COVID. Three years since the start of the pandemic, even as most social distancing mandates are lifted, many still work in virtual settings. What do we know about who continues to work from home, how much they work from home, and the kinds of jobs enabling this flexibility? What are the advantages and disadvantages for companies that allow remote work? And what does persistent work from home mean for urban commercial real estate? To discuss these issues, as well as his new book, Going Remote, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Matthew Kahn. Matt is the Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California.
The 20th century was defined in large part by the conflicts between free market-oriented ideas, and policies favoring government intervention to soften the effects of unbridled markets. It was also defined by broad increases in quality of life. Yet, even as material progress of the last 150 years greatly exceeded that of the previous thousands of years, it hasn't led to the utopia that people in earlier, more materially dire periods, believed would come about. Drawing on his new book 'Slouching Towards Utopia,' J. Bradford DeLong joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why.Brad is a Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy from 1993 to 1995. 'Slouching Towards Utopia,' was named one of the best business books of 2022 by The Financial Times.
A central result from economic theory is that nations benefit from international trade (even as there is a recognition that not all people within a country may benefit). But recently there have been calls for the United States to restrict trade by creating incentives or rules that favor domestic production over purchases from abroad. Will these efforts ultimately strengthen or weaken the United States economy Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats to discuss this issue.Chad is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, and the host of the podcast Trade Talks.
After reaching a four-decade high in June 2022, U.S. inflation has been on a steady downward trend. Part of the reason for this is the aggressive response of the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. While this is good news, there are concerns that the Fed’s actions could push the economy into a recession, much like in the late 1970s and early 1980s, in the wake of the so-called 'Volcker disinflation.'What are the similarities and differences between high inflation in the 1970s and today? How have previous periods of high inflation, as well as the 'great moderation' -- the multi-decade long period of very low inflation -- informed the Fed's thinking in tackling the current crisis? And what might Fed policy look like moving forward, given the easing of inflation over the past half year? Dan Sichel joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Dan is the Stanford Calderwood Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. Prior to joining Wellesley, he worked at the Federal Reserve Board for over 20 years.
About one-fifth of women who graduated from college between 1900 and 1920 were in the labor force in their mid to late twenties. In contrast, more than four-fifths of women graduating from college between 1980 and 2000 worked outside the home in their mid to late twenties. A flip side of this is the proportion of women married by age 30; 50% for those who graduated college between 1900 and 1920 and about 25% for those graduating between 1980 and 2000. These statistics reflect choices that women have made and continue to make about balancing a career with raising children, and the choices that men have made and continue to make as well. On this episode of EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein speaks with Claudia Goldin of Harvard University about her recent book, Career and Family: Women's Century-Long Journey toward Equity, highlighting a wealth of statistics and examining cultural shifts shaping these choices.Claudia is the Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University. She is a former President of the American Economic Association, and co-directs the National Bureau of Economic Research's Gender in the Economy Study Group.
Football and basketball teams at Division I universities generate billions in revenue. But the student-athletes themselves do not receive salaries. Should they? Most have scholarships for their tuitions, but to what degree are they students, as well as athletes? And how does the money raised through these big-ticket sports support other, less high-profile sports, and the academic mission of these colleges and universities, if at all? Andrew Zimbalist joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.Andy is the Robert A. Woods Professor Emeritus of Economics at Smith College. He has consulted in the sports industry for numerous players' associations, cities, companies, teams, and leagues.
Michael Klein speaks with Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod about their new book, Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom Through the Ages, highlighting the challenges governments face when taxing their citizens, how taxes alter people's behavior, and the difficulty in assessing who bears the burden of a particular tax.Note: This podcast was first posted on 29th March, 2021.
The homicide rate in the U.S. is over seven times that of other industrialized nations. Gun deaths accounted for nearly 80% of all U.S. homicides in 2020. In contrast, gun deaths represented about one-sixth of all homicides in other industrialized countries. What interventions could prove effective in reducing gun violence in the U.S.? Are there ways to identify those at high risk, and reduce the likelihood of them becoming victims? Sara Heller and Max Kapustin join EconoFact Chats to discuss these critically important questions.Sara is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan, and Max is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Cornell University. Sara and Max’s research focuses on interventions to reduce crime, and improve life outcomes for disadvantaged youth.
In 2021, Americans donated nearly $500 billion to charity. One-quarter of all Americans also report volunteering their time. What does economic analysis add to our understanding of volunteering time and giving money to charities, activities typically considered moral or religious duties? To what causes do people donate time or money? And what makes people more or less likely to give to a particular organization? Laura Gee joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.
Laura is an Associate Professor of Economics at Tufts University. Her research is in behavioral economics — with a particular focus on how individual decision making is influenced by group dynamics.
The U.S. dollar is a refuge at times of uncertainty – and in these uncertain times, the dollar is at its strongest point since the mid-1980s. This presents problems. Commodities like oil and wheat, which are priced in dollars, become more expensive in terms of euros, yen, or pesos, fueling inflation, and reducing people’s purchasing power. Additionally, dollar-denominated debt of emerging market and developing countries becomes harder to repay as the dollar strengthens.
In the face of these challenges, what would be appropriate policy responses by countries whose currencies are weakening? And by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury? Professor Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as a preeminent expert on the world economy, addresses these questions, and others, in this EconoFact Chats episode.
Maury is a Professor at the University of California at Berkeley. He served as the Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2015 to 2018. Prior to that, he served as a Member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.
There's evidence that economically better-off voters tilt Republican. But there is a paradox. While richer voters tilt Republican, richer states tend to vote Democrat. To discuss this apparent paradox, as well as issues of poll accuracy, and how much the state of the economy has mattered in recent mid-term elections, EconoFact Chats welcomes Andrew Gelman of Columbia University.
Andrew is a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia. His work has focused on a range of topics, including why it is rational to vote, and why campaign polls are so variable, when elections are often predictable.
As of October 2022, the U.S. national debt stood at over $31 trillion. That amounts to nearly $90,000 of debt per citizen. But is there an upside to a government spending more than its tax revenues? How much should we worry about debt of this magnitude? Does history offer lessons for today? Barry Eichengreen joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.
Barry is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served as a senior policy advisor at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is In Defense of Public Debt.
To what extent does where you live determine how you live? In particular, does growing up in a poor neighborhood reduce one's chances for economic and social advancement, greater educational achievement, and better health? Poor people typically live in poor neighborhoods. But would those people do better living in better-off settings? If so, what government policies could help? To discuss these issues, Lawrence Katz of Harvard University joins EconoFact Chats.
Larry is the Elizabeth Allison Professor of Economics at Harvard. He served as Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. His research focuses on labor economics, and on the impact of public policies designed to address social problems. He led the Moving to Opportunity study, a major randomized housing mobility experiment sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The recent strength of the dollar highlights the impact exchange rate movements can have. In addition to economic impacts, these include far-reaching social and political effects too. Jeffry Frieden, a leading scholar on the political economy of exchange rates joins EconoFact Chats to discuss who gains and who loses from swings in exchange rates, their political implications, how political considerations affect the choice of whether to allow a currency to be determined by market forces or government policies and, in particular, how this applies to the adoption and maintenance of the Euro.
Jeff is Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on the politics of international economic relations.
The United States economy is currently marked by high inflation, a strong dollar, rising food and energy prices, and historically low unemployment. The shortage of microchips presents another challenge, as do the ongoing consequences of climate change.
Can the Federal Reserve lower inflation without sending the economy into a deep recession? Should the United States be incentivizing domestic manufacturing of advanced microchips? What will the Inflation Reduction Act mean for a transition to a greener economy? To address these questions, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Megan Greene, a columnist at the Financial Times and the Global Chief Economist at Kroll.
Given their critical role in everything from complex weapons guidance systems, to medical devices, video games, and watches, semiconductors today have much the same pervasive effects oil did in the 20th century; determining the economic fortunes of countries, the outcomes of wars, and the everyday lives of individuals.
This week, Chris Miller of the Fletcher School joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his new book 'Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology,' highlighting among other things, the extraordinarily complicated, and geographically concentrated chip fabrication process, the geopolitical vulnerabilities that concentration raises, and the scope for the U.S. to onshore chip production.
Chris is an Assistant Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Chip War comes out on October 4th, 2022.
Most people don't think of economics as having a religious basis, and may question whether religion affects people’s views of economic issues. But in his recent book, 'Religion and the Rise of Capitalism,' our guest on EconoFact Chats this week, Professor Benjamin Friedman of Harvard University, discusses the influence of religion on economics, including how the ideas of the Social Gospel and the Gospel of Wealth played a role in the development of American economic thinking in the late 19th century, how religious thinking influenced people’s views of economic policy in the 20th century, and how that influence continues to the present day.
Professor Friedman is the William Joseph Maier Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University. He has authored over 170 scholarly articles, and written or edited a dozen books, including The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth.
Distrust is based on experience – and there are many historical experiences that give rise to distrust among African-Americans of economic institutions in the United States, including the laws of the Jim Crow era and discrimination in hiring, lending, and access to education and health care. Trevon Logan discusses historical experiences, and the long shadow cast by them, in this EconoFact Chats episode. Part of this discussion centers on the Green Book, published annually between 1936 and 1966, that offered guidance to Black travelers about public accommodations like restaurants and motels that they could patronize. Trevon’s research analyzes how the locations of establishments listed in the Green Book correlate with the presence of anti-discriminatory laws, the educational and racial profiles of towns and cities, and the history of overt racist acts like lynchings in those places.
Trevon is a Hazel C. Youngberg Trustees Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Ohio State University. He is also the inaugural director of the National Bureau of Economic Research Working Group on Race and Stratification in the Economy.
Sanctions in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have had less of an impact than initially hoped by the West, or feared by Russia. But Russia’s longer-term economic prospects don't look particularly good. Which sectors and segments of Russian society have Western sanctions affected most? How leaky have they been? What short and long-run effects are they designed to have? And are they likely to achieve their ultimate goal of making the cost of continuing the invasion of Ukraine too high? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Christopher Miller.
Chris is an Assistant Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. His research focuses on Russian history, politics, and economics. He is the author of “Putinomics: Power and Money In a Resurgent Russia,” and "We Shall Be Masters: Russian Pivots to East Asia From Peter the Great to Putin."
The U.S. dollar recently traded at par with the euro for the first time in almost 20 years, and the dollar now buys more British pounds than at any time since the mid-1980s. While the strength of the dollar is good for American tourists in the U.K. and the Eurozone and for those in the U.S. purchasing imports from those countries, it presents challenges for American exporters and has other disruptive effects for the world economy. Why is the dollar so strong? What are the implications for the U.S. and other countries? In the face of these currency swings, does it make sense to reconstitute a fixed exchange rate system in order to promote greater macroeconomic stability? EconoFact Chats welcomes Kathryn Dominguez of the University of Michigan to discuss these issues.
Kathryn is a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan. She is also a member of the panel of economic advisors at the Congressional Budget Office, and is on the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Inflation erodes purchasing power, but the reported inflation rate can mask very different experiences across groups of people. For example, the current rapidly rising rents and food and energy prices hit lower-income households harder since they spend a higher proportion of their income on these items. Dan Sichel discusses the measurement of inflation and how the single, headline statistic may not fully reveal the range of effects across income groups or categories of goods and services.
Dan is a professor at Wellesley College. He recently served as Chair of a National Academies panel that wrote the report “Modernizing the Consumer Price Index for the 21st Century”. He also worked at the Federal Reserve Board for over 20 years.
The pandemic has resulted in supply chain disruptions, and goods shortages across multiple industries. But few shortages have caught the public’s attention like that of infant formula. Kadee Russ of UC Davis joins EconoFact Chats to discuss some of the structural reasons behind this shortage, focusing on the role of regulation, the power of lobbying, the role of advertising, and the impact of trade restrictions.
Kadee also highlights what good government policy for ensuring the supply of infant formula might look like.
Kadee Russ is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of California at Davis.
Looking from the early 2000s, the rise in international trade and financial flows seemed almost inexorable. Yet, political opposition to greater integration grew significantly over the past decade. This opposition intensified with the pandemic, which led people to question how dependent they should be on other countries for supplies of essential goods.
What does this growing opposition portend for the future of globalization? And how does it play out in the political sphere in the U.S. and in other countries? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeffry Frieden of Harvard University.
Jeff is a Professor and Chair of the Government Department at Harvard University.
China's economic rise -- which brought hundreds of millions of its citizens out of poverty, and drove about one quarter of global GDP growth over the past two decades, has been among the most consequential events of the past century.
However, like many countries, China's economy today faces deep challenges. To discuss some of these challenges, as well as the drivers of China’s growth over the past decades, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Eswar Prasad of Cornell University.
Eswar is the Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
The Pew Research Center reports that the U.S. public now views inflation as the top problem facing the country, by a wide margin. It's not hard to see why. After decades of low and stable inflation, the U.S. economy is witnessing a rate of price increase unseen since the 1970s and 80s. Why is inflation so high? Who does it hurt most? And what are the prospects for it coming down? Karen Dynan of Harvard University joins EconoFact Chats to discuss some of these questions.
Karen is a Professor of Practice in the Department of Economics at Harvard University. She previously served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
The S&P 500 index more than doubled between March 2020 and the end of 2021. It has recorded steady losses since then, falling by about 15% as of June 2022 . What determines stock prices? Were stock prices too high before 2022? Are they too low now? More generally, how do we gauge whether stock prices are too low or too high? Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth College joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.
Eric is Professor of Economics at Dartmouth. His expertise is in industrial organization and agency issues in the financial and informational industries.
The United States currently generates 20% of its energy supply from nuclear power; a figure that has been remarkably stable for decades. As the U.S. moves towards a carbon-free energy future, what role is nuclear power likely to play? What are the risks associated with fission power generation and waste storage? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Gilbert Metcalf.
Gib is a Professor of Economics at Tufts University. His latest book is Paying for Pollution: Why a Carbon Tax is Good for America.
Intervention by the United States government helped the rapid development and large scale production of three COVID-19 vaccines. What were the economic, legal, and political challenges of developing and distributing vaccines in the face of an emerging deadly pandemic? How were these challenges addressed? And what were the successes and shortcomings of these policies? To discuss these issues, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Chad is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., and the host of the podcast Trade Talks that focuses on international trade and its attendant policies.
Some statistics indicate that the U.S. economy is thriving. Payroll employment rose by nearly 430,000 in March. Unemployment is at 3.6%. Consumer spending and business investment grew strongly in the first quarter of this year. But other statistics are concerning. GDP declined 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022. Inflation is at a 40 year high. Additionally, tighter fiscal and monetary policy, higher gasoline prices, and the broader economic impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine could all weigh heavily on growth.
To understand the myriad factors affecting the outlook of the U.S. economy, EconoFact Chats welcomes back a panel of distinguished economic journalists -- Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of the Washington Post.
The year ending July 1st, 2021 marked the slowest rate of population growth in the history of the United States, with the natural increase -- the number of births minus deaths -- at 148,000; one-tenth the typical value a decade before. Much of the slowdown stems from the low birth rate. As of 2020 the U.S. birth rate was 55.8 births per 1000 women of childbearing age; a decline of almost 20% from 2007. What's driving this decline? Melissa Kearney at the University of Maryland discusses her findings on this week's episode of EconoFact Chats.
Melissa is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. She is also the Director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, and a Senior Editor at the Future of Children.
In the 1950s and 1960s, the dollar was as “good as gold” – until it wasn’t. The dollar no longer served as the centerpiece of the world’s fixed exchange rate arrangement when the Bretton Woods system broke apart in the early 1970s. But the dollar has remained, to this day, the dominant currency for international trade and global finance.
What advantages does the United States enjoy because of the special role of the dollar? Are other currencies, like the Euro or the Renminbi, or even cryptocurrencies, likely to replace the dollar’s hegemonic position? Megan Greene discusses this topic which has important implications for the United States economy as well as the stability of the world monetary system.
Megan is a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School, and is also the first Dame DeAnne Julius Senior Fellow in International Economics at Chatham House, UK.
College costs are far from straightforward. For the vast majority of students attending four-year private colleges, the amount they pay is not the sticker price. Rather, colleges offer many different types of financial aid. But it's hard for families to figure out beforehand how much aid they're likely to receive.
What are the problems that arise from the opacity of college costs for families? And for colleges and universities? What are some reasonable plans to make college more affordable? Phillip Levine joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.
Phil is the Katharine Coman and A. Barton Hepburn Professor of Economics at Wellesley College.
As the war in Ukraine continues, sanctions on Russian energy exports have led to a rise in global oil and gas prices. How might the supply disruptions, rising prices, and the growing political urgency in Europe to reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas shape our energy future? Are we likely to see environmentally harmful short-run effects as countries scramble for additional sources of hydrocarbons? Could the current crisis accelerate efforts to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels? David Victor at UC San Diego joins EconoFact Chats for a discussion of these issues.
David is Professor and the Center for Global Transformation Endowed Chair in Innovation and Public Policy at UC San Diego. He is also co-Director of the University’s Deep Decarbonization Initiative.
How do people come to their views on issues like income inequality, tax policy, and immigration policy? What is the role of personal experience in forming these opinions? Do people’s views change when they are confronted with new information that challenges their existing ideas? This week on EconoFact Chats, Stefanie Stantcheva explains how divergent social and political views can become entrenched, and why facts alone often aren’t sufficient to change one's mind.
Stefanie is the Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University and founder of its Social Economics Lab.
The economic impact of the COVID recession has differed widely across groups of people. Pamela Meyerhofer joins EconoFact Chats to discuss some of these differential impacts, focusing on women's experiences in the labor force, as well as those of frontline workers -- those who were providing essential in-person services and facing the biggest risks at the beginning of the pandemic.
Pamela is a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Montana State University.
COVID-19 has changed much of how we live. For many of us, it's also changed how and from where we work. What have been the effects of working from home on businesses and employees? Now, as many places re-open, will those who had been working from home continue to do so? Will they want to? Will companies be willing to accommodate them? How will working from home affect productivity and people's sense of isolation? This week on EconoFact Chats, Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University joins Michael Klein to discuss the far-reaching implications of working from home.
Nick is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War. This week on EconoFact Chats, Roger Lowenstein describes how Lincoln and Chase revolutionized the role of the federal government, played a crucial part in the Union Army’s victory, and helped forge a national identity – a story that offers a mirror to the current debates over the role of government in building infrastructure and financing higher education as well as the burden of the national debt.
Roger reported for The Wall Street Journal for more than a decade. This interview draws from his just-published book 'Ways and Means: Lincoln and His Cabinet and the Financing of the Civil War.'
In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an alliance of governments announced wide-ranging sanctions aimed at punishing President Putin, members of the Duma, and Russian oligarchs. What impact are these sanctions likely to have? How resilient will the Russian economy be to the withdrawal of foreign partners? And how responsive will President Putin be to hardships facing the Russian people, as well as to his more immediate circle? Christopher Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues.
Chris is an Assistant Professor international history at The Fletcher School. He is the author of 'Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia.'
Unusually frequent droughts and hurricanes are manifestations of climate change; and these events, along with associated wildfires and floods, have important economic consequences. This week on EconoFact Chats, Galina Hale discusses the costs of both, these extreme events, and the costs of a transition to a more environmentally friendly economy.
Galina Hale is a professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She previously was an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
What are the ways in which public finance -- the study of government taxing and spending -- can and should address issues related to the inequitable racial impacts of government policy? This week on EconoFact Chats Bill Gale of the Brookings Institution discusses recognizing and analyzing racial disparities fostered by public policy and how public finance policies can better address past injustices.
Bill is the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy and Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. He served as president of the National Tax Association from 2019 to 2020.
Antitrust laws have been part of U.S. legislation since the Sherman Act of 1890, and the Clayton and Federal Trade Commission Acts of 1914. Does existing legislation provide a useful framework to check anti-competitive practices today? This week on EconoFact Chats, Dan Richards discusses the many forms of monopoly and monopsony power, how U.S. regulatory attitudes towards anti-trust have shifted, and what tools are available to address monopolistic practices today.
Dan is a Professor of Economics at Tufts University.
Union membership has been declining for 60 years but there are incipient signs of a reemergence. Why did unionization decline and what might be prompting its return? How do unions affect wages, as well as the workplace environment? More broadly, what is the evidence on the effects of unions on overall productivity and public policy? Aaron Sojourner discusses these issues in this week’s EconoFact Chats episode.
Aaron is Associate Professor at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management. He served as senior economist for labor at the U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisors for Presidents Obama and Trump.
This week on EconoFact Chats, Giovanni Peri, founding director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis discusses the many roles that immigrants play in the US economy, how current labor shortages are linked to international travel disruptions and immigration restrictions, and what natural experiments like the Mariel boatlift of 1980 can tell us about the impact of immigration on the wages of native-born workers.
Giovanni is Professor in the Department of Economics at University of California, Davis. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
There has been a widening divergence in mortality rates across states over the past four decades. While this is partially explained by differences in education, income and “deaths of despair” -- those related to alcohol, drugs, or suicide -- there are also place-based effects beyond these factors. This week on EconoFact Chats, Ellen Meara discusses the effect of the health environment and state-level policies on mortality rates, and how the breakdown of social safeguards contributes to worse health outcomes.
Ellen is Professor of Health Economics and Policy at the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University and an elected member of the National Board of Medicine.
Racism in the United States has created an enduring wealth gap between Black and White Americans. This gap is rooted both in slavery itself and in the systematic exclusion of Black people from government assistance and social safety programs beginning after the Civil War and continuing through the Jim Crow era and after. Although it’s not easy to capture the magnitude of this injustice, paying reparations to Black Americans is one way to begin to correct it. This week on EconoFact Chats, Professor William (Sandy) Darity Jr. explains the history of the racial wealth gap and why reparations remain necessary today.
Sandy Darity is the Samuel DuBois Cook Professor of Public Policy, African and African American Studies, and Economics and the director of the Samuel DuBois Cook Center on Social Equity at Duke University. His most recent book, coauthored with A. Kirsten Mullen, is 'From Here to Equality: Reparations for Black Americans in the 21st Century.'
The American public has always struggled with immigration policy, particularly as it intersects with race, poverty and economic opportunity. This week on EconoFact Chats, Tara Watson discusses her new book co-authored with Kalee Thompson, The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in the Age of Fear. The book is both an economic analysis of the effects of immigration on the United States economy, and the story of six immigrant families and their struggles. The podcast focuses on the sources and the extent of unauthorized immigration, the net fiscal costs of unauthorized immigration, and policies to address unauthorized immigration under the Obama and Trump administrations.
Tara Watson is a Professor of Economics at Williams College. She served as Deputy Assistant Secretary at the US Treasury from 2015 to 2016, and is currently a Rubenstein Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Middle-income jobs have been declining over the past decades, leaving behind a polarized workforce, with one group of people doing high-skilled, well remunerated work, and another growing set, that are in low-wage, relatively economically insecure positions, that don't have much of a career ladder.
Automation, globalization, and the shrinking role of unions have all contributed to the hollowing out of middle-wage jobs, exacerbating wage inequality among American workers. In the current economic recovery, however, there are hopeful signs that labor demand, and worker activism might improve conditions for low wage workers. This week on EconoFact Chats, David Autor discusses the economic forces behind the hollowing out of the middle class, and what types of policies can help expand opportunities for those left behind.
David is Ford Professor in the MIT Department of Economics and co-director of the NBER Labor Studies Program.
Economic forecasting is rarely easy. This is especially true in the current environment, as the relationship between economic activity and public health metrics such as the percentage of people vaccinated, or the number of COVID cases, remains far from predictable.
Key macroeconomic questions remain. Is higher inflation likely to persist, or will it prove transitory? Will businesses be able to boost productivity despite the tight labor market, and supply chain disruptions? And what are some of the most useful metrics to assess economic recovery in the current environment?
This week on EconoFact Chats, Julia Coronado discusses these questions, and offers her perspective on which metrics best indicate the health of the economy.
Even as the initial economic shocks of COVID-19 abate, labor shortages, supply constraints, demand shifts, and inflation continue to cloud the U.S.' macroeconomic outlook. To discuss whether these phenomena might prove transitory, or more durable, EconoFact Chats welcomes back a panel of distinguished economic journalists: Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of the Washington Post.
The panelists also break down the major economic stories of the past year, and discuss how labor force participation, wages, inflation, and monetary policy might evolve as the second pandemic year draws to a close.
John Campbell of Harvard University and Michael Klein discuss the links between financial markets and the broader economy.
In the wake of the economic crisis of the 1970s, and again, in the aftermath of 2008, macroeconomists have had to rethink their understanding of the drivers of recessions, as well as the most effective policy responses to them. This week on EconoFact Chats, Karen Dynan and Michael Klein discuss how past recessions have shaped today’s fiscal and monetary policy, the role of inflation, and inflation expectations, and how policy makers can be better prepared for future crises.
Karen is a Professor of Practice in the Department of Economics at Harvard University. She served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury from 2014 to 2017.
Economic theories often inform policy choices, but events can call into question these same theories. In this episode of EconoFact Chats, John Cassidy, Staff Writer for The New Yorker joins Michael Klein to discuss how policies based on the advantages of unfettered free markets were challenged by the 2008 financial and economic crisis. John also discusses other instances of challenges to theories; for example how evidence has given rise to behavioral economics, and the role of psychology and information to guide policy.
John is the author of How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities and Dot.Con: How America Lost Its Mind and Money in the Internet Era.
Nationalist economic policies, including rising opposition to free trade, skepticism of international institutions, and anti-immigrant sentiment, are on the rise at a time when the pandemic and climate change are making international cooperation more necessary than ever. This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein speaks with Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as one of the world's leading experts in international economics, on the tensions between globalization and economic nationalism – the historical context, current challenges, and the prospects for the future.
Maury Obstfeld is Professor of Economics at U.C. Berkeley. He formerly served as Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, and as a Member of the Council of Economic Advisors.
Even as overdose deaths from opioids in the US reached a disturbing peak of 69,000 in 2020, monthly state-level data for 2021 suggests that overdose deaths are on pace to rise even further; likely driven by a combination of increased stress, reduced access to care, and a greater prevalence of more lethal drugs. This week on EconoFact Chats, Alicia Sasser Modestino of Northeastern University discusses the origins of this ongoing public health crisis, how the problem has evolved over the decades, and what role there is for public policy, as well as for individuals in addressing this epidemic.
Alicia is an Associate Professor at Northeastern University. She has also been a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Her research focuses on public policy issues affecting labor, housing, and health care.
High inflation has become a central concern. After four decades of low inflation, the so-called ‘great moderation,’ the key question is whether the current situation portends a return to the high and rising inflation of the 1970s, or whether we are seeing a temporary blip due to supply chain disruptions and other effects of the pandemic.
Looking at a finer-grained analysis of the price changes of individual goods and services offers some insight. Alberto Cavallo, a pioneer in gathering and using online micro-data, joins EconoFact Chats this week to discuss the major takeaways from his analysis of over a billion prices.
Alberto is an associate professor at Harvard Business School. He co-founded The Billion Prices Project, and Price Stats -- the leading private source of inflation statistics in over 20 countries.
Michael Klein and Jacob Hacker of Yale University discuss the politics behind the enactment, sustainability, and expandability of economic policies.
How can journalists present statistics in a way that is both understandable and accurate? Why are data visualizations sometimes misleading rather than informative? As newspapers scale up their data coverage, journalists are developing insights into how best to report complex statistics without misrepresenting them.
This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein and Ben Casselman of the New York Times discuss the nuances of communicating economic data to a broad audience.
How do laws affect commerce between nations? Are WTO decisions routinely biased against the interests of the United States? What are the biggest legal challenges to the international trading system? What role do labor standards and the protection of intellectual property play for international trade?
This week on EconoFact Chats, Joel Trachtman, a leading scholar of of international trade law, discusses how national and international legal systems impact trade between nations.
Even as the popularity of cryptocurrencies grows, debates surrounding their viability as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and as an investment remain contentious. In this episode of EconoFact Chats, Eswar Prasad of Cornell University joins Michael Klein for a discussion of how cryptocurrencies work, the ways in which they differ from central bank digital currencies, issues surrounding the regulation of cryptocurrency, and the environmental impact of mining cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
Tom Frieden (former Director, CDC) highlights factors that make COVID-19 particularly deadly, the importance of good governance in slowing its spread, and the need for better primary care in underserved areas.
Lisa D. Cook discusses her work on how the Tulsa Massacre raised questions among African Americans about their equal protection under the law, and how this led to a nationwide falloff in patents awarded to Black inventors.
Economics has changed, with new areas of inquiry such as behavioral economics, the role of information, and network and contagion effects. Economics students have also changed, coming from more diverse backgrounds, representing a wider range of ages, and having broader career and life interests. The economy has changed as well, due to the 2008 financial crisis, the rise of the digital economy, the effects of COVID-19, and the growing importance of services. As we begin the new academic year, EconoFact Chats interviews Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers (University of Michigan) on the way they have addressed these changes in their new Principles of Economics textbook. Betsey and Justin also discuss their efforts to make the teaching of economics more inclusive, to draw to the subject women and people from underserved minorities.
Note: This podcast was first published on 7th September, 2020. It was recorded on 13th August, 2020.
Trade restrictions are a common theme on campaign trails, and the general public is often suspicious of the net benefits of trade. Are these suspicions warranted? This week on EconoFact Chats, Michael Klein, and Kadee Russ of the University of California at Davis discuss the current landscape of international trade.
University of Maryland professor Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats host Michael Klein to discuss the scope and causes of child poverty in the U.S. and policy efforts to alleviate it.
The gender pay gap in the United States has narrowed over the last 50 years, but today women still earn about 20 percent less than men. In this episode of EconoFact Chats, Francine Blau joins Michael Klein to discuss the gender pay gap, female labor force participation in the US, and the push to reduce gender discrimination, specifically in the economics profession. Francine is the Frances Perkins Professor of Industrial and Labor Relations, and a professor of economics at Cornell University. For her contributions to the economic analysis of labor market inequality, she became the first woman to receive the Institute for the Study of Labor Prize.
Note: This podcast was first published on 1st March, 2021. It was recorded on 17th February, 2021.
Michael Klein, and Binyamin Appelbaum, lead writer on economics and business for The New York Times Editorial Board discuss Binyamin’s book The Economists’ Hour. The discussion focuses on the history of economists influencing public policy, and the limitations of free markets in solving issues like inequality.
Note: This podcast was first published on 26th October, 2020. It was recorded on 14th September, 2020.
Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman joins Michael Klein for a discussion on globalization, global trade patterns since the late 19th century, trade policy, protectionism and tariffs, and industrial policy. They also discuss the economics of geography, and the importance of communicating clear economic models. Krugman is a Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He is the author of numerous books, including most recently Arguing with Zombies Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future.
(Note: This podcast was first published on 21st February, 2021. It was recorded on 16th February, 2021).
The high and rising inflation of the 1970s caused widespread economic insecurity, raised fundamental questions about the government's ability to manage the economy, and caused macro-economists to doubt many of their theories. Now, as inflation rises after a decades-long lull, economists and policy-makers are faced with a key question: is the current rise in prices transitory; driven by supply chain issues and COVID stimulus spending, or are we likely to see a more sustained increase in prices?
This week on EconoFact Chats, Jay Shambaugh of George Washington University joins Michael Klein to discuss the prospects for ongoing inflation, and the ways in which inflation affects your economic well-being.
The move to remote learning in high schools and kindergartens has proved among the more pervasive disruptions of COVID-19. Hardest hit have been those without access to technology, or adequate places to do schoolwork at home -- a group in which low-income students and students of color are overrepresented. While the government has made resources available to school districts to address learning disruptions, questions of how to best deploy these monies remain. Nora Gordon, among the country's leading experts on education policy and finance, joins EconoFact Chats to discuss policy responses to learning loss in the wake of COVID-19.
James Stock, professor at Harvard University, and a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers joins EconoFact Chats this week to discuss the role of economic policy in slowing climate change.
Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins EconoFact Chats this week to describe how she and her team organize their thinking and analysis of the U.S. economy at a time when the pandemic has disrupted the conventional models and rules of thumb that forecasters traditionally use.
New York Times economics reporter, and EconoFact Board Member Eduardo Porter speaks with Michael Klein about his book, American Poison: How Racial Hostility Destroyed Our Promise.
Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, Jason Furman joins EconoFact Chats this week to discuss the economy’s emergence from the COVID-19 recession.
David Deming (Harvard) discusses why manufacturing jobs are no longer a straightforward path to the middle class, and why greater investments in public colleges can help more people get well-paying jobs in a changing economy.
Doug Irwin (Dartmouth College) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week to discuss how ideas about free trade have changed over the last 250 years.
With over 1 in 7 children living in poverty in 2019, the United States is an outlier among rich nations. It doesn't have to be this way, according to University of California, Berkeley professor Hilary Hoynes.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics lays out evidence for the U.S.'s retreat from globalization, and its potential consequences.
COVID-driven lockdowns contributed to a sharp drop in the rates of many types of crime, although, the rates of some crimes such as homicides increased in 2020. What explains these divergent trends?
A discussion with Matt Kahn, director of Johns Hopkins' 21st Century Cities Initiative on what causes some cities to grow, while others shrink.
EconoFact Chats draws on a panel of distinguished economic journalists to discuss what the Biden Administration has achieved in its first 100 days, and the challenges it faces over the coming year.
Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discusses financial stability issues in the wake of the COVID crisis, and some ways to address them.
Michael Klein speaks with Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod about their new book, Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom Through the Ages, highlighting the challenges governments face when taxing their citizens, how taxes alter people's behavior, and the difficulty in assessing who bears the burden of a particular tax.
Michael Klein and Ken Rogoff discuss the ways in which large-denomination bills facilitate criminal activity, tax avoidance, and corruption.
Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics joins Michael Klein to discuss China's role in the global economy, as well as the international cooperation involved in COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing and distribution.