A big day for the breakaway and a collection of climbs all with their steep sections. The big challenge could be the wind, it’s forecast to howl today.
Kooij uncaged: Jonas Gregaard (Uno-X), him again, took off to get more mountains points and then backed off to leave Rhone local Sandy Dujardin out by himself all day. We got the promised sprint finish and with Mads Pedersen launching early, Olav Kooij came past to get his first World Tour win. There wasn’t much else to report from the stage although David Gaudu grabbed the six second time bonus mid-stage after a leadout from Arnaud Démare who then mopped up the four second bonus to keep Tade Pogačar away. Also Kooij’s win was the last chance for the sprinters and it means Jumbo-Visma have two stage wins so far, justifying their selection of flatlanders.
It’s Kooij’s second World Tour win after a stage in the Tour de Pologne last year and the 21 year old sprinter is a rising talent, we’ll see if he becomes a pure sprinter or aims for the classics as well. He started out speed-skating at the age of six and riding his bike aged 12 according to his local newspaper, copying both from his father who was a skater who rode his bike when the canals weren’t frozen.
The Route: it’s no longer south, the race is almost by the Mediterranean and heads east today across to Nice. After the start it’s up a main road via some wide hairpins, a chance for the breakaway to go quickly but the battle might last longer.
The first climb starts out of Draguignan and there are a couple of tricky ramps among the houses and apartment blocks but it flattens out, it’s only once the road enters the woodland that it gets harder again, it narrows and there are some hairpins. The second climb is a gradual road to Callian but once it reaches the village there’s a turning for a sharp ramp. The third climb to Cabris is more steady, 5km at close to 6%.
With 40km to go it’s onto the finishing circuit and this crosses the finish line with 30.5km to go. There’s a left turn and road rears up on a backroad, it’s not just steep but narrow and twisting. Even once the slope levels out it’s still on this small road across to the intermediate sprint. From here it’s the main road, there’s 20km to go but it goes by quickly on the descent, it’ll be hard to chase.
The Finish: a twisting downhill on the main road into town and once in La Colle, the final kilometre is uphill, there are a couple of bends but they’re not sharp, it’s just they block sight of the finish line until the final 200 metres.
The Contenders: the breakaway stage. Saturday’s summit finish is likely to be reserved for the GC contenders and likewise for Sunday’s racing although there’s room then for those in and around the top-10 to ride off with the stage win. For everyone else it’s today or nothing but the prime contenders for today’s stage aren’t that far down on GC so they might not get much room; or they’re on team duty, a rider like Tim Wellens (UAE) is the archetype for today but is he allowed to race for himself? David de la Cruz (Astana) fits the bill, he’s infrequent winner but has two Paris-Nice stages. Simon Geschke (Cofidis) and Omar Fraile (Ineos) come to mind too but need a spin of the wheel of fortune to get away, let alone win. Magnus Cort (EF Education-Easypost) will like the finish if he can make it over the climbs, he’s in great shape though.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the sweeper pick, if the breakaway can’t stick and it’s all back together then can win the reduced bunch sprint.
| | – | | | Magnus Cort, Tadej Pogačar | | | Wellens, Powless, De La Cruz, Geschke, Fraile |
Weather: sunny but windy. 19°C but the stat today is the 40km/h NW wind which could gust to 90km/h. The wind will drop during the course of the state but the gusts could persist across the course. These kind of gusts can be too much for racing, you and your bike can be scooped of the road and there’s little you can do so there could be a meeting to discuss things. But the wind model is one thing, the conditions on the ground another and if the gusts aren’t too persistent things can go ahead as planned, look for news later this morning.
TV: the stage start is 11.40am CET, TV coverage is for 3.00pm and the finish is forecast for 4.40pm CET.