All the focus on Astana this week has obviously been Mark Cavendish’s stage win. Yet what next? Cavendish is surely going to retire now, up to him to pick the moment.

The team goes on, or does it? Both both cyclingnews.com and L’Equipe have published items saying the squad is going to be taken over by XDS, a Chinese bike manufacturer keen to promote its X-Lab brand. This raises plenty of questions and some have to get answered quickly because the clock is ticking if a new owner wants to take over the team.

The story is that XDS Carbon wants to take over the team. Both CN and L’Equipe say the squad will be under a Chinese flag next year. Can you have a Kazakh-funded team with a Chinese flag? Presumably something has to give here.

XDS?
XDS is Xidesheng. It has a Conti team and supplies the Chinese Olympic team with MTBs. The company claims it has “the world’s largest carbon fiber factory” on a dated website in English.

To find more updated info Xidesheng you need to search the Chinese internet instead, and 喜德盛 (“Xi-de-sheng”) is located on the outskirts of Shenzen where it has a large factory and makes everything from its “X-lab” road bikes to MTBs, e-bikes kids bikes and accessories like bidons and bike computers.

The old English website is interesting as some factory photos include frames with Orbea decals (pictured) so while the company has its own bikes it is working as an “original equipment manufacturer” or OEM. This is how most bikes in the World Tour are made. Specialized, Scott, Trek, Canyon etc are not all made in factories belonging to these companies, instead third parties make the frames for them and do assembly. In the past we’ve seen one OEM company make the all three bikes of Tour podium finishers.

Several OEM manufacturers have been thinking about breaking into the market with their own brand because the margins are so much bigger. Why make a frame for someone else who sells it with juicy margins when you are capable of making these products and stand to gain from controlling the whole process? The answer is because branding is subtle and if manufacturing is hard, so is design, marketing and after-sales too.

Xidesheng’s website says it wants to become the world’s leading bicycle brand. Having a shop window in the World Tour could be part of this.

Now come the questions…

Why Astana? Well the licence could be for sale so it makes for an entry point for someone looking to buy their way to the top… but the team is facing relegation from the World Tour and so is not an obvious start. A bike brand wanting to crack the market could back a more successful squad that will be guaranteed entry to the Tour de France and the rest of the premium events.

They can buy their way out of relegation but this means big signings for 2025, the final year of the three year cycle. Astana is roughly 4,000 points adrift of 18th place, the safety spot. For illustration Mathieu van der Poel has 3,000 points this season and could score more by the end, let’s say he makes 4,000. He’s not moving teams of course but is just an illustration for the arithmetic involved, the kind of gap they need to close, a rider of this calibre would need to have a spring like he did to close the gap. More realistically supply your own list of five riders who can each deliver 1,000 points next season, then see if they are available, and then willing to sign.

If they want to do this then the time to do it was last spring but it can be done now, but we’re at the “rest day announcement press conference” stage, big names won’t be on the market for long.

Cyclingnews understands that the Shenzen-based company will become a major investor in the team for a period ranging from five to 10 years. The Chinese-registered team will have a budget in line with the ‘super teams’ of cycling’s top tier such as UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease A Bike. The team will also switch bike suppliers as part of the deal, moving from Wilier to little-known Chinese brand X-Lab.
– cyclingnews.com

Why take over a whole team? Control is the answer but this comes at at a price. The quote above shows ambition but almost too much. It’s one thing to come on board as a bike sponsor but to buy the whole team? The trend in the sport has been in the opposite direction with bike sponsors being priced out of naming rights and not seeing the World Tour as the be-all and end-all of marketing. Just being present at the Tour is not enough, what really works is a charismatic rider who makes winning look easy and fun, think Tadej Pogačar or Peter Sagan.

The quote above evokes a budget equivalent to €30-40 million a year? Can XDS afford this? Maybe if it was a Chinese project backed by big brands (think “Byd-Air China” on XDS bikes) the funding might look more ready but there’s no sign of this. Assume Astana stays and there’s still €10-20 million needed for a super team budget. As a business proposition it is not an obvious one; although what if the XDS owner is a massive cycling fan?

It all creates a Catch-22 scenario where riders and their agents might be wary of signing with a team with likely relegation and uncertain funding. In order to convince them the team and its backers would probably have to pay a premium to secure their services because if you are a “thousand point” rider you can sign elsewhere, especially to a team that doesn’t have the reputation as career cul-de-sac.

Conclusion
If Astana is going to be taken over it’s big news, more so if the ambitions stated are to come true, it’s one thing to say you want to win the Tour de France in five years, another if someone is briefing about half-wheeling UAE in terms of team budget.

There’s a clock ticking here as for a team to exist in 2025 a lot has to be signed off by mid-August under the UCI timetable. The backroom admin is important and there are still weeks to resolve this but if they want big signings now is the time otherwise the fanfare arrival could be a sad trombone moment if they are relegated.

There’s a lot to put in place. Crucially a lot needs to be seen to be put in place if they want to tempt riders across and reassure them about the continuity project.

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