Paris-Nice? Familiar roads from March’s race but this will be hotter twice over, the temperature and the ferocity for the stage win.

Isolated 2000: the high point of the Tour didn’t supply the height of drama. The stage started with Visma-LAB sending their best two helpers up the road in Matteo Jorgenson and Wilco Kelderman. A relay plan for Jonas Vingegaard who could leapfrog them to victory? If it was a plan, the challenge came in the execution as Vingegaard sat tight on the Bonette. Thoughts started to turn, will Vingegaard race the Vuelta, could he do the Giro next year instead of the Tour? Because based on all we’ve seen so far what could he do, Pogačar has the measure of him raised to the power of two.

Perspective counts here because Vingegaard was still sitting second overall with a stage win to this name, as defeats go things can be worse. But rather than turn the tables he ended up “saving the furniture” as the French saying goes, protecting second place overall. Once Tadej Pogačar attacked Vingegaard was fixated on marking Remco Evenepoel and covered the Belgian’s attack on the final climb.

In the breakaway all day and first over the Bonette Richard Carapaz is now in the polka-dot jersey with 14 points on Pogačar and 10-8-6-4-2-1 points for the first category climbs and 5-3-2-1 points for the Braus.

The Route: a Paris-Nice stage but run in July this means two things, heat and form. It’ll be a hot day and more riders are on a better level, expect more attacks from the start.

The Braus as an opener is defined by the hairpin bends which help line out any group. There’s a small false flat over the top before dropping down to Sospel.

Next is the Turini, a 20km climb where the upper 10km are 7%-10% for most of the way and then a twisty descent on open roads. The Colmiane is similar, an even climb but steeper in the second half and another descent full of corners to negotiate.

The Finish: a long and steady climb. There’s nothing particularly technical to describe, the early parts have a wide road and the slope is so even all the way up although in the final two kilometres it just tightens up towards 8%.

The Contenders: Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has proclaimed today is for the breakaway… so maybe he goes in the breakaway? He might be content to take it easier in order to win tomorrow’s time trial. Both he and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) will be happy to see a team mate win and can cope without them today. Still if no move can get clear then Pogačar can tidy up.

Ben Healy (EF) sat up yesterday so should be fresher. Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) started so well, has been tired but looked sharper yesterday. Richard Carapaz (EF) and Simon Yates (Jayco) out to be tired but can be in the mix.

Clément Champoussin (Arkéa-B&B) is the local rider and normally this doesn’t make anyone faster but he’s got an impulsive side although just being in the break is a big ask. If it’s a Paris-Nice course then Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-LAB) gets a second go.

| | – | | | Carapaz, Healy, Bardet, Pogačar, S Yates | | | Williams, A Yates, Almeida, Jorgenson |

Weather: 30°C and sunny.

TV: KM0 is at 1.55pm CEST and the finish is forecast for 5.30pm CEST.

Postcard from the Col de Braus
Why is Nice hosting the Tour de France finish? Officially because of the Olympics, the capital is spared a major sports even just before the Olympics and it’s right. But the secondary reason is because Nice hosted the start of the race in 2020 and it was a disaster on three fronts. First the pandemic and the restrictions turned a party into private event, not just barriers but hoardings fenced off the start, you might not get it on TV but the Tour is a very public open event. Second it rained and and all the expected images of the “Bay of Angels” and literal “azure coast” imagery were washed away. Plus a giant crash caused in part by the rain marred the finish. So returning to fix all of this makes sense. Plus where else to finish? Nice has plenty going for it.

So much so that it’s become a big hub for pro cyclists. Monaco lures some for the tax but plenty stay for the sunshine, while Americans and French riders alike who can’t dodge the taxes but can afford to rent or even buy a spacious home for a fraction of the cost of a Monaco apartment. Indeed it’s notable how many French riders are quitting their home regions these days to move here in order to train in better weather year round.

Many new residents on the Côte d’Azur with start their first ride via the Col de Braus, just because it’s there, to ride in land is to end up here. The postcard view above must be in thousands of social media posts today as it’s hardly changed since. Come around the corner and the view of the hairpins is still there, now combined with the urge to whip out your phone to record it.

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