The biggest money maker in software stocks this earnings season has been video game authoring tools company Unity Software, based on its seventy-seven percent rise in stock price since it reported on November 9th. The biggest dog so far is payments processor dLocal.
The earnings season isn’t quite over, but after seeing reports from a hundred and twenty-five names in the past month or so, I thought it might be instructive to see how things have done.
The latest earnings positive surprises, Monday evening, are GitLab, makers of versioning control systems for programmers, and Sumo Logic, makers of DevSecOps platform software and tools, both of which saw their shares rise sharply after-hours after reporting better-than-expected revenue and earnings and a better-than-expected forecast.
What I’m after, however, is how the software names have done not just in their immediate response but in the days and weeks following.
And so the table at the bottom of this post includes the stock jump right after earnings in one column, but also the cumulative return of the share price since the day of the report. The table is sorted by the latter metric, the cumulative return.
A fundamental thing to take away are the reversals. Companies that had a big pop on their report, have in many cases notched big declines subsequently, such as legal firm software maker CS Disco. The reverse is true too: some companies sold off big but recouped losses and even rose handsomely, such as Five9.
I wouldn’t say there’s any deep reason for those reversals. They are merely a lesson not to take the pop from the report too seriously. After the smoke clears, some people find value in beaten-down names, while the enthusiasm for earnings reports for some names fades upon more careful reflection.
Another fundamental thing to take away is that companies that did everything right, such as Alteryx and Confluent, nevertheless sold off subsequently, whereas companies that blew it as far as reported results, such as Telos or Shift4Payments, were able to bounce back in the days following.
As you can see from the average return in the footer row of the table, the next-day pop for these stocks hasn’t been too good, just one percent, on average. And from report date to today, one percent as well.
It’s no surprise why software’s having a tough season. As I’ve chronicled in the past two months, many software names are reporting what they call “deal push-outs,” more time required to sell software, more scrutiny. It’s been harder and harder to sell software as companies tighten their belts.
I’ve tried to weed out companies that are software to an extent, but that include too much of a focus on content, such as online learning firm Coursera, which I dropped, or that are really making money by sales of items even if they regard themselves as a software company, such as luxury goods marketplace Farfetch. If you come across names you think do not belong in this group, please point them out.
I’ve included the most recent quarter’s revenue, as well, so that you can get a sense of each company’s scale. While there have been winners and losers of all sizes, I will point out that the average quarterly revenue of all the companies whose stocks have declined since their reports is $407 million. The average quarterly revenue of all the companies whose shares have stayed flat or risen since their reports is three times as large, $1.25 billion. So, on average, bigger companies have seen their shares hold up better than smaller companies.
Feel free to download the table in Excel format if you’d like to slice and dice it.