BofA Global Research Podcasts: Recent Episodes
BofA Global Research
BofA Global Research Analysts share views on what‘s rising, from growth industries to rising risks and opportunities in global markets.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
It's been a summer of extremes, and this week's Must Read Research highlights four themes shaping markets across regions and asset classes. Candace Browning, Head of Global Research at BofA Securities, reviews a powerful earnings season that continues to deliver broad-based EPS growth, even as investors become increasingly difficult to impress. The episode also examines mounting risks in European energy markets amid record temperatures and tightening gas inventories, the accelerating AI investment cycle driving memory demand following SK Hynix's landmark U.S. listing, and a potentially significant reshuffling of MSCI emerging-market indexes that could redirect billions of dollars in investor flows. Together, these developments offer a timely look at the forces influencing corporate profitability, energy security, AI infrastructure spending, and global capital allocation.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Sphia Salim in conversation with Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber post-payrolls and US Treasury refunding. Given the limited guidance at last week's FOMC meeting and resulting US curve steepening, data has become an even stronger focal point for markets. We will discuss the implication of the NFP report for Fed speak, the September decision and US rates. We will also highlight any key takeaways from the Wednesday US Treasury refunding announcement. The call took place at 10am ET, 3pm BST, 4pm CET on Friday 7th Aug.
Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
What if one of the market's most widely followed growth benchmarks is really just a bet on a few dozen stocks? This week, we explore rising concentration within major equity indices, how Russell reconstitution is reshaping portfolios, and where opportunities could emerge if market leadership broadens beyond Big Tech. We also examine an unlikely scarcity story: hazardous waste. With disposal capacity constrained for decades, critical waste infrastructure operators are benefiting from increasingly attractive industry dynamics. Finally, we discuss recent cracks in the AI trade as weakness spreads into high yield credit. We explore pressure on AI-linked data center bonds, the impact of new supply, and whether recent volatility may create opportunities for investors.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with the global rates team on the implications of all the central bank decisions taken this week. We will review the exceptionally uncertain Fed meeting and debate the outlook for 2y & 10y UST yields. We will also discuss the takeaways from the guidance provided by the BoE and BoJ. The call took place on Friday, July 31st, 2026.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Unlocking new markets, from broadband to the moon
The SpaceX IPO has renewed investor interest in the rapidly evolving space economy. But to understand the opportunity that space may present requires an understanding of launch costs and to what extent they can continue to decline. US Aerospace and Defense analyst Ron Epstein explains the economics underpinning the next phase of space development. Ron discusses how advances in rockets have already reduced launch costs from roughly $20,000 per kilogram to as little as $1,000-$2,000, with the potential to fall toward $100 per kilogram. The conversation explores the hurdles to and promise of further declines in costs, the importance of reusability and how dramatically lower launch costs, if achieved, could unlock new markets-from global broadband and orbital data centers to next-generation defense, space manufacturing, and lunar resource development. We also discuss some of the unique challenges space-based data centers-launch costs matter but so do cooling solutions.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
This week on Signals & Noise, Mark Cabana, co-head of Global Rates Strategy, breaks down the highly anticipated July FOMC meeting, explaining why markets face unusual uncertainty over the Fed's next move. He discusses the case for both holding rates steady and raising them and examines what a surprise hike could mean for Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and financial markets.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
This week on Must Read Research, we look back at prior semiconductor selloffs for clues on what may come next and revisit our recent Transforming World Conference for an understanding of the breakthroughs and challenges AI may create tomorrow. Power remains a key constraint for the technology, creating opportunities for traditional oil & gas companies. We also look at emerging market debt where asset class growth and historical returns should impress even AI investors.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
As AI enthusiasm drives markets to new highs, investors are increasingly asking whether the boom has become a bubble. In this episode of Signals & Noise, Ben Bowler and Arjun Goyal explore why today's AI-driven market shares many of the characteristics of past technological booms while arguing that the current cycle may still have room to run. They discuss BofA's proprietary Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI), a tool designed to identify bubble-like price behavior across asset classes, and explain why volatility often rises alongside prices during periods of intense investor optimism. The conversation examines how FOMO, uncertainty, and increasingly reflexive markets can create powerful momentum, as well as the practical implications for investors managing risk in AI-related equities, semiconductors, memory stocks, commodities, and other crowded trades. The key takeaway: in today's market, understanding psychology and market dynamics may be just as important as understanding fundamentals.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Mark Cabana for a discussion with credit strategist Yuri Seliger & rates strategist Meghan Swiber. Yuri will discuss the outlook for hyerscaler issuance & IG outlook, Meghan will place in context of broader rates. The call took place on Friday, July 24, 2026 at 9 AM EDT, 2 PM BST, 3 PM CEST.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode of Signals and Noise, Aditya Bhave, Head of US Economic Research at BofA Securities, lays out the case for three 25bp Fed rate hikes in September, October, and December. He explains why current policy appears too accommodative given the combination of steady labor markets and elevated core inflation, and why recent softness in CPI data has not changed our view. Aditya also addresses the three most common challenges to our forecast: whether inflation is truly a problem, whether Chair Warsh will ultimately follow through on a hawkish stance, and whether markets are underestimating the amount of tightening needed to meaningfully impact financial conditions. Along the way, he breaks down the role of tariffs, geopolitical shocks, core PCE inflation, and Fed credibility in shaping the outlook for rates and markets.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode of Must Read Research on Global Research Unlocked, T.J. Thornton steps in for Candace Browning to explore several of the themes heating up markets this summer. We recap a strong start to earnings season, where broad-based growth is extending beyond AI and early results are running ahead of historical averages. We also examine the debate surrounding Netflix's engagement trends as investors weigh slowing viewing hours against new monetization opportunities and the company's long track record of adaptation. Beyond corporate earnings, we discuss how extreme temperatures across Europe are creating risks for global agriculture markets and what that could mean for corn production and pricing. Finally, we look at the evolving supply-demand backdrop for U.S. Treasuries as signs of softer foreign demand raise questions about future sources of support for the market.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Sphia Salim, Meghan Swiber and Shusuke Yamada. We will discuss potential implications of a hypothetical change in Japan's GPIF asset allocation both for Japan and G10 more broadly. We will also preview next week's ECB meeting and discuss how the Fed's reaction function may have changed with this week's US data.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Our guest speaker is Gary Neville, former professional footballer, entrepreneur, broadcaster and business leader and who is one of the most influential voices across soccer and media. Since retiring from playing, he has built a broad portfolio spanning broadcasting, property, education and club ownership, including co-ownership of Salford City FC. Through his work, Gary is committed to expanding access to sport, supporting communities, and using sport to bring people together. Join us for a wide-ranging discussion covering experiences at the top of the game, transition into media and entrepreneurship, and perspectives on the business of modern soccer.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Our guest speaker is Gary Neville, former professional footballer, entrepreneur, broadcaster and business leader and who is one of the most influential voices across soccer and media. Since retiring from playing, he has built a broad portfolio spanning broadcasting, property, education and club ownership, including co-ownership of Salford City FC. Through his work, Gary is committed to expanding access to sport, supporting communities, and using sport to bring people together. Join us for a wide-ranging discussion covering experiences at the top of the game, transition into media and entrepreneurship, and perspectives on the business of modern soccer.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
U.S. consumers showed remarkable resilience in June, with spending growth reaching its strongest pace in four years. But what's driving the surge, and can it last? In this episode of Global Research Unlocked, T.J. Thornton speaks with David Tinsley, Senior Economist at the Bank of America Institute, about the latest Consumer Checkpoint data. They unpack the factors behind June's spending acceleration, including the impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a rebound in discretionary purchases, and improving momentum among lower-income households. The conversation explores a notable shift in the consumer landscape: the long-running K-shaped spending trend appears to be narrowing. David discusses why wage growth is accelerating for lower-income consumers, how increased job switching and a stronger labor market may be supporting household finances, and whether these improvements are likely to persist into the second half of the year. They also examine spending patterns across World Cup host cities, the return of strength in retail categories, and the risks facing consumers as temporary tailwinds fade and spending continues to outpace wage growth.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Convergence of brokers, betting and prediction markets
Prediction markets (PMs) have exploded in popularity over the past year, with volumes doubling since the start of May. By some measures, prediction markets are already approaching the scale of online sports betting. Julie Hoover from the Gaming, Lodging & Leisure team joins the podcast to discuss what's driving this growth and categories other than sports which could be the next major opportunities for PMs, Julie also explores key differences between prediction markets and traditional sports betting, including taxation, and market-making dynamics.. She discusses online brokers, which share a significant customer base with prediction markets and could be well positioned to succeed in this growing market as the companies expand their PM offerings. Finally, we examine the risks, which include more than 15 state lawsuits challenging prediction markets. It's likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will ultimately decide whether and which sports event contracts can continue to be offered.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
EM resilience tested by Fed, fueled by long-term flows
Emerging market equities have more than doubled the S&P 500's return year-to-date, and have held up well despite rising Fed hike expectations and a stronger US dollar. In this episode, David Hauner explains why he remains structurally bullish on EM despite our Economic team’s expectations for three Fed hikes later this year. David discusses how flows over the last decade, interest rate differentials and dollar diversification play into his calculus. He also addresses the impact and risks that come with U.S. Midterm Elections and AI. David Beker joins for commentary on Brazil, where weaker growth expectations, lower oil and a less favorable rate outlook have flipped the script. But he suggests that political clarity could help investors to re-engage.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode of Must Read Research on Global Research Unlocked, Candace Browning explores a broadening opportunity set across markets and industries. We examine the rapid expansion of the space economy and how advances in launch and satellite infrastructure are reshaping connectivity and computing. We also look beyond the U.S. and China for the next wave of AI beneficiaries, highlighting the countries best positioned to capitalize on both AI buildout and long-term productivity gains. The discussion then turns to Europe, where earnings momentum is improving for the first time in years, and to the Research Investment Committee's latest views on opportunities beyond crowded market leadership as signs of economic and earnings broadening continue to emerge.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join our US economist and rates strategists for their weekly rates call to cover (1) commodity risks for global rates & curves and (2) US CPI preview & US inflation pricing implications. The call will took place on Friday, July 10, 2026 at 9 AM ET, 2 PM BST,
3 PM CEST.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana and Alex Cohen post-payrolls. Since Fed Chair Warsh is trying to move away from forward guidance, the importance of US data will only increase. We will discuss the outlook for the Fed, US rates and the USD in light of the US labor market data.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode of Signal vs. Noise, Savita Subramanian, Head of U.S. Equity & Quantitative Strategy, reviews a surprising first half of 2026 and explains why she believes investors should look beyond the Magnificent Seven. With earnings growth exceeding expectations, inflation reaccelerating, and Fed rate hikes back on the table, Savita argues that the next winners could be large-cap value and manufacturing beneficiaries, including energy, materials, industrials, financials, and real estate.
She breaks down why AI-driven megacaps may be facing higher hurdles, how a manufacturing and capex boom is reshaping earnings leadership, and why stock selection could matter more than ever in the second half of the year.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode of Must Read Research, we explore what happens when “too much of a good thing” begins to reshape markets. From a more hawkish Fed outlook to rotation beneath the surface of equities, shifting AI demand dynamics, and an intensifying battle in prediction markets. We break down the trends investors need to watch next.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode of Signals & Noise, we unpack the latest midyear updates to global economic forecasts, including a modest upgrade to global growth and a downward revision to inflation.
Despite easing headline inflation, policy remains tight, with our economists now expecting a more hawkish Federal Reserve than consensus. We explore the drivers behind this shift, including resilient labor market dynamics and persistent core inflation.
We also discuss the impact of the Iran deal on energy markets, the role of AI-driven exports in supporting global growth, particularly in Asia, and why the U.S. economy continues to outperform other developed markets.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Mark Cabana and Adarsh Sinha to discuss the outlook for G10 rates and FX. We will discuss implications of the new Fed call, updated rates and FX forecasts and the main themes we see drive markets away from the Fed.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
As the United States approaches its 250th Independence Day, Derek Harris, Head of Global Wealth Management Portfolio and Investment Strategy speaks with Jared Woodard, Head of the Research Investment Committee to examine the long-run forces behind America’s market leadership. Using data that spans much of the nation’s financial history, they explore why U.S. equities have delivered nearly 10 percent annual returns and how that outperformance compares globally. The conversation also revisits the role of bonds, challenges traditional portfolio frameworks like 60/40, and highlights the structural drivers of U.S. success, including innovation, strong corporate earnings, and a business-friendly environment. They further discuss the efficiency of American R&D and the enduring role of the U.S. dollar in global markets.
This episode offers a data-driven perspective on 250 years of American capitalism and the key trends shaping the path ahead.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
We recap the June FOMC meeting with our US economists and rates / FX strategists. We offer our views on the hawkish messaging and how to position across rates & FX.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Mark Cabana in a discussion with Jill Carey Hall, Aditya Bhave, and Oliver Levingston as they break down key market dynamics, equity risks, and central bank outlooks. Gain expert insights and actionable perspectives on equities, rates, and macroeconomic trends
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Welcome to Signals and Noise, where BofA Global Research strategists from around the globe offer a shorter take on market matters as part of Global Research Unlocked. Today, we focus on the best performing size segment of the US equity market this year, US small and mid-caps, and how we're thinking about them today.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
This week we pause to check a scoreboard flashing stretched positioning, analyze how AI infrastructure is quietly creating unlikely winners, highlight an Underdog taking on the big guys, and get field updates on a housing market still playing defense against affordability constraints
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Sphia Salim in discussion with our US economists, rates and FX strategists to review the US payroll report. The US labor market remains central to the outlook for US monetary policy, especially ahead of the first FOMC meeting under the new Chair, and therefore also a key driver for US rates and the dollar.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Mostly friendly skies for airlines and premium consumers
Summer is starting just as higher income consumers remain flush and global soccer fans are descending on North America. But this also comes at a time when the airline ticket situation is becoming a bit more difficult, at least for consumers. Prices are elevated thanks to higher fuel and recently, a low-cost airline stopped flying. We talk to Andrew Didora about what all of this means for the airlines and the latest on consumer travel behavior. And while airlines are notoriously cyclical, we also discuss other parts of Andrew's coverage where the tailwinds are more structural, including cruise, gyms and golf.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Lower prices are unlocking the next leg of GLP-1 growth
Several years ago, the bullish case for GLP-1 penetration hinged on lower pricing and the availability of oral options-both of these have materialized over the past 18 months. Yet we remain early in the oral GLP-1 ramp, and pricing continues to adjust downward, suggesting ample runway for unit growth in these weight-loss therapies. Peter Galbo discusses the impact on food and beverage we've observed at today's ~10% penetration levels and what may lie ahead, especially as Jason Gerberry outlines where penetration could ultimately land and the improvements expected in side-effect profiles. We also examine intensifying competition within the GLP-1 landscape, as well as the packaged food and beverage segments most at risk-or best positioned to benefit-alongside areas where potential upside may be overstated
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
This week, we discuss why the size of the market continues to expand, how the World Cup is fueling global beverage demand, contingency plans amidst shifting energy segments, the paths that lie ahead for LatAm countries facing elections and an overhead view of global markets where scale and earnings continue to expand.
Disclosure:
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Mark Capleton in discussion with Stephen Juneau, Alessandro Infelise-Zhou and Meghan Swiber on inflation and the inflation markets, covering: the outlook for inflation, where we diverge from the market, and implications for central bank policy and the rates curves.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Sphia Salim in conversation with global rates strategists to discuss the broad bond market selloff of the past week. We will explore its drivers across regions and the risks of a further extension of the moves, as well as the policy elements that can cap the rise in yields. We will also present key bond convexity and swaptions ideas in the context of elevated rates volatility.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Youth labor in the age of AI adjustmentThough about one-quarter of global jobs are exposed to AI, the Economics team doesn't share the view that AI will usher in mass unemployment. Benson Wu and Nick Stenner discuss their recent report on the topic, part of the Economics team's larger series on AI impact. They discuss several examples of past tech disruptions, many of which wound up favorable for job prospects when initial predictions were for a much less constructive outcome. Benson and Nick discuss youth unemployment, which is often cited as evidence of AI job destruction but they offer a different take and point out what's been improvement in that metric over the last several months. We share our views on the economies best positioned to benefit from the AI transition, and our take on whether benefits from AI may accrue more to capital than labor.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
This week, we track how weather disruptions from El Niño may ripple through commodity markets that are already on edge, how sticky inflation and strong labor data could prompt unexpected Fed rate hikes, and how consumers are turning to Chinese autos, secondhand and off-price retail as they contend with these higher prices.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Mark Cabana in discussion with Adarsh Sinha & Meghan Swiber to discuss the US-China summit, yen intervention, & US rates. We will cover FX views in context of US-China summit & recent yen interventions / USD flows + US rate views after recent inflation data & new Fed Chair Warsh.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Don't shut the door yet; housing supply discipline turning
Consistent with the U.S. economy as a whole, the housing and building products markets are stronger in the high end, and weaker in the entry-level. Regionally, there are shades of this as well. Our new housing heatmap shows that the New York and San Francisco metro areas are among the strongest. Rafe discusses the drivers behind the regional disparities, the importance of supply and how certain markets that have been dealing with excess supply may get a bit of relief as builders are demonstrating discipline. Rafe also compares fundamentals for homebuilders to those for building product companies and why exposure to less discretionary projects like roofing can make certain building product companies attractive investments. Finally, we touch on housing policy where many potential solutions have been floated but where challenges persist. We discuss why meaningful action so far has been limited, partly due to structural dynamics
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Welcome to Must Read Research on BofA Global Research Unlocked. In this podcast, we offer quick summaries from the prior week’s most interesting and impactful research. This week, we focus on the human and technological engine behind the World Cup, the rising cash flow bolstering big oil, and an IPO supply wave that's preparing its debut.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen and Shruti Mishra to review the US payroll report. The US labor market remains central to the outlook for US monetary policy and therefore also a key driver for US rates and the dollar.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy buyers to rethink supply lines
With energy stocks off recent highs, Jean Ann joins the podcast to discuss what may be ahead and why she believes that cash flow generation at Integrated oil companies, boosted by the higher trading range for crude, make several of them attractive investments. We also discuss longer term impacts from the war, including how we're likely to see more interest in US LNG contracts from more countries, greater interest in building strategic reserves and increased interest in renewables and storage. We detail the compelling outlook for US pipelines, where capex growth was heading higher well before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Lastly, we touch on whether we could see significant oil production increases in Venezuela and Iran over the longer term and whether US integrated oil companies are poised to benefit.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
In this episode, we discuss central bank meeting takeaways and market implications. We discuss the Fed’s and Bank of Canada’s shift in tone, plus the groundwork for hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England. We also cover the Bank of Japan’s delayed hike and the implications for the June meeting. Finally, we recap some recent work across regions on global plumbing and funding markets. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Sphia Salim in discussion with Aditya Bhave, head of US economics research, Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy, and Alex Cohen, senior G10 FX strategist. We will review Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination hearing, with a particular focus on his Inflation views, his comments on the Fed's balance sheet, and the potential for a new Treasury-Fed accord. We will also look ahead to the April FOMC meeting and discuss implications for the rates and FX markets.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Mark Capleton and Meghan Swiber to discuss opportunities in inflation markets. Commodity price swings have been very pronounced since the start of hostilities in the Middle East. We will discuss market dynamics as they have translated into real yields, breakevens, and inflation swaps in sometimes surprising fashion and flag what we consider to be interesting opportunities and market developments.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
South Korea emerging as a breakout defense producer
Asia's defense transformation is emerging as a compelling and investable growth theme, as the region shifts from import dependence to scaled manufacturing and exports. The region is expanding its role in Western defense supply chains as spending rises as a percentage of GDP. South Korea stands out as a key beneficiary, gaining market share across Europe and the Middle East as expanding, diversified order books improve earnings visibility, supporting a valuation re-rating. With cost advantages, deep industrial capacity, and multi‑year backlogs driven by global rearmament and inventory replenishment, Asian defense companies are positioned for durable, multi‑year returns. Still, geopolitics works both ways and the desire for domestic supply chains will play a role too.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Ralf Preusser was joined in conversation by Bruno Braizinha, Sophia Salim, and David Tinsley on Friday, 10 April 2026, at 9:00 a.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. BST / 3:00 p.m. CEST. The discussion covered the impact of the ceasefire announcement on rates and volatility markets and included a deep dive into the U.S. consumer.You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Commodity exposure? There's a region for thatPrior to the Middle East conflict, investor sentiment toward Emerging Markets had turned increasingly bullish, driven by momentum and demand for assets positioned for US dollar weakness; while the war in Iran and the effective closure of the Hormuz Strait disrupted that optimism, David Hauner and David Beker argue the structural EM case remains intact. Latin America-particularly Brazil and Argentina-appears well positioned in a world of higher commodity and energy price floors, despite continued energy‑shock risks. Attractive valuations, improving fundamentals, and persistent global underallocation continue to support EM, with Latin America standing out as a key supplier of energy and commodities-Brazil benefiting as an energy exporter amid an easing cycle, and Argentina offering reform‑driven, off‑index upside.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Takeaways from our inaugural APAC Conference
BofA Global Research hosted its inaugural APAC Conference earlier this month. Timing was opportune. The Chinese CSI 300 Equity Index has outperformed the S&P year-to-date, following years in which the opposite was true and that's helped to pique investor interest. Over 1,200 investors and 300 corporates attended. Winnie Wu joins us to discuss her takeaways from the conference and her views on markets. Winnie believes Chinese equities will remain relatively more attractive in the EM context given the lower valuation and better growth potential for China. She adds China and Korea in particular are very well positioned to leverage AI to help offset their demographic challenges and can potentially achieve higher than expected long-term GDP growth thanks to AI-driven efficiency.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Stablecoin progress to come with time and reg. clarityEbrahim Poonawala has been busy exploring the topic of stablecoins and the impact on banks. He's hosted expert events, started a series of notes on the topic and has communicated with bank CEOs on developments and potential bank offerings. Ebrahim joins the podcast to talk about regulatory progress but the hurdles that remain before consumers and businesses can start using stablecoins just as they use deposit accounts. He also discusses how, for most consumers, there are inadequate incentives to switch from traditional credit cards to stablecoins for payments. He addresses the economics of stablecoin issuers, which are highly dependent on the level of interest rates, and how, if traditional banks were to issue a consortium led stablecoin solution, it could drive network effects and adoption. We also tackle the related topic of tokenized assets and the advantages they can provide. Stablecoins also come with risks, one of several reasons that adoption could progress more slowly than some expect.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Still managing to add value for patients and payorWhile US markets make new highs, the S&P managed care index is half the level it was a year ago. We talk to Kevin Fischbeck about what's driven the substantial weakness and whether deterioration in medical loss ratios (MLR) is temporary or something that will last and prevent these companies from recapturing past margins. Kevin also discusses the different markets served by managed care, from commercial to Medicare Advantage to Medicaid and how profitability challenges are likely to last longer for some of these markets than for others. But he also addresses how managed care adds value to each of these settings, delivering care more effectively and cheaply than the alternatives. He notes that vertical integration is still part of the strategy at some managed care companies, and something that can still help to better align incentives, but that it's been overshadowed by challenges faced elsewhere in the business.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
10Y yields should fall if Fed more dovish than expectedLeading up to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market has priced in a high likelihood of a 25bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. The prospect of rate cuts has helped to lift homebuilding stocks and the group is up 16% since the end of June. But the 10Y Treasury yield is more relevant for homebuyers taking out fixed-rate or even adjustable-rate mortgages. So a key question is how Fed cuts, which should come--it's just a question of when--may impact long rates. And if rate cuts do result in lower 10Y Treasury yields, what does it mean for affordability. Mark Cabana believes that a very dovish Fed, even amidst a backdrop of higher than desired inflation, could still manage to push long rates lower. Rafe Jadrosich talks about affordability and regional housing dynamics, given that supply is above 2019 levels in Florida and Texas but well below levels from six years ago in the Northeast and Midwest.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Coffee away from home enjoying demographic tailwindRestaurants have faced some of the same sales challenges experienced elsewhere in the economy as chains more reliant on lower income consumers have felt more pressure than those with a higher income skew. Sara Senatore discusses the opportunity that inflation and a more selective consumer have created for fast casual and even casual dining. But dining preference shifts mean that fast casual tailwinds extend beyond price gaps. Sara talks about why she expects the category to continue to take share of restaurant spending. The Away-from-home coffee is a category continues to grow even though US per capita coffee consumption has been flat to down for decades. Sara discusses why demographics could keep this running. We also address immigration, labor shortages and restaurants use of AI.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Rev beats bode well but may not lead to big index gainsThe percentage of companies beating on earnings and revenues this season is higher than average and the percentage beating on sales is the highest in four years. Tariffs may be playing a role in the sales beats but either way, the better than expected revenues suggest companies are able to raise prices, a positive sign for corporate resilience. Coupled with softer labor markets and AI, the prospects for operating leverage are strong. And while it's tech and megacaps driving capex growth thus far, Savita believes that even narrow capex growth can lead to a broadening of stock performance. Savita squares all of this with her S&P target which offers limited upside. Whether it's this year or next, the Fed is likely to resume rate cuts and we discuss implications for markets and styles.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Could be in the early stages of a re-weighting into EMEmerging Market (EM) equities have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The weaker US dollar has furnished a number of positives for EM assets, from cheaper funding to less imported inflation to a more attractive carry trade. David Hauner discusses the various positives ahead, including superior economic growth, central bank cutting cycles and the possibility of a lengthy dollar decline. David also discusses EM credit which has seen buying from US investment grade and high yield funds attracted to compelling yields. One of the main risks to this bullish view is a significant deterioration in global trade. So far, however, trade numbers look good and should things deteriorate enough to warrant Fed rate cuts, the dollar could weaken further, bolstering relative performance for EM.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Several positives for US defense but FY26 a tough comp
Defense spending growth in the US and Europe is accelerating. The shift is particularly acute in Europe, where NATO allies had been spending between 1.5% to 2% of GDP on defense equipment but agreed in late June to spend 3.5% by 2035 (5% including other national security spend). Stocks of the European defense contractors have performed well this year as the market begins to anticipate this stronger spend and Ron Epstein addresses to what degree this spending will flow to US defense contractors, given Europe has an interest in boosting the domestic defense industry. Certain programs, like the F-35 fighter jet, could take a decade or more to replace should Europe be interested in their own program, while others could be replaced more quickly and this is a reason why US contractors could lose share of Europe spend with time. Ron also addresses the role that drones could play, implications for higher-end defense equipment, whether F27 is poised to be a down year for US defense spending and the new and existing equipment that could be demanded by the US' Golden Dome.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Limited near-term catalysts for market upsideThe US Equity Strategy team recently raised its S&P 500 target but the target implies little to no upside between now and year-end as the team sees few positive catalysts over the next several quarters. Fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill will be positive but lower than originally expected. The US Economics team expects the new fiscal plan to add between 0.3% and 0.4% to GDP growth in 2026 and to fade thereafter as benefits are front-loaded. US Economics does expect an important change next year as the Fed should start cutting rates and US Strategy discusses how this could boost certain areas of the market. But before discounting 2026 cuts, stocks may have to contend with a pricing out of 2025 cuts-US Economics doesn't expect rate reductions to start until the back half of next year. Jill and Aditya discuss tariffs, the resiliency of large corporates in particular and how tariff strategies could be impacted if higher costs begin to noticeably impact prices.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Pipelines boom, esp. in the previously quiet Northeast
There's been a marked increase in the number of natural gas pipelines expected to be in service in the next several years. President Trump's policies explain some of this. But the commercial side is also enabling the boom. Jean Ann Salisbury addresses the various drivers and how these new pipelines could mean several hundred basis points of additional growth for some midstream companies. Interestingly, much of this development is taking place in the Northeast and increased access to gas could ultimately mean lower utility bills for commercial and residential customers. Jean Ann discusses how LNG will also be a key end market for this gas, the risk of an LNG glut further out and what this could all mean for the price of the commodity.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Thorium can power long-term growth nuclear generationNuclear energy has received a lot of investor focus, especially following the President's recent executive orders and numerous agreements to supply nuclear power to data centers. But while adding capacity to existing plants isn't a major challenge, adding new US plants is more difficult. Jess Gehin from the Idaho National Lab and BofA Global Research's US Utility analyst Ross Fowler join to discuss what may lie ahead. Jess covers how the recent Executive Orders could accelerate the deployment of nuclear and how they've already stimulated activity. Jess also discusses HALEU, a more enriched variety of uranium used in some of the small modular nuclear reactors as well as Thorium, a reactor fuel that was studied in the 1960s and which has seen a resurgence of interest. While Thorium could eventually provide the US a domestically sourced nuclear fuel that enables longer term growth in nuclear generation, Jess believes uranium will be the fuel that continues to dominate for the foreseeable future.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Stablecoins offer opportunities and pose risksPotential for increased adoption of stablecoins and implications for the banking sector has become a hot topic among investors given the push among policymakers. Eventually, consumers might be able to buy dollar-linked stablecoins and potentially earn interest on these assets, meaning more competition for bank deposits. There are regulatory hurdles that first need to be cleared but Congress is currently considering a few proposals that could bring this closer to reality. While the use case beyond cross-border payments seem limited at the moment, the potential for non-banks (Big Tech / Big Retails) to come up with creative solutions to induce adoption poses risks. That said, potential for banks to issue a stablecoin once the regulatory framework is in place could mitigate risks, Ebrahim Poonawala discusses these issues as we delve into stablecoins, the areas where they could be particularly helpful to consumers and how, if adoption winds up being significant, they could impact everything from US Treasury demand to loan funding, to payment fees.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Long end of Tsy curve faces supply/demand imbalanceAs tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest rates. While the boost to growth isn't large, certain groups should see benefits. This includes senior citizens, also business investment may benefit later in the year, especially if tariff uncertainty has peaked. The US Rate Strategy team believes that a mismatch of demand and supply of Treasuries at the long end of the curve could lead to more cheapening of Treasuries, meaning that the 30Y yield could move further above swap rates. In theory, the recent Moody's downgrade of the US' credit rating could lead Congress to a more balanced budget and but on that, our guests were skeptical.
As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest rates. While the boost to growth isn't large, certain groups should see benefits. This includes senior citizens, also business investment may benefit later in the year, especially if tariff uncertainty has peaked. The US Rate Strategy team believes that a mismatch of demand and supply of Treasuries at the long end of the curve could lead to more cheapening of Treasuries, meaning that the 30Y yield could move further above swap rates. In theory, the recent Moody's downgrade of the US' credit rating could lead Congress to a more balanced budget and but on that, our guests were skeptical.
Smart glasses may weigh on phone sales, lift Internet use
Smart glasses could be the next big opportunity in personal technology. Leading tech companies are focused on the form factor and functionality like augmented reality and 4K video may follow today's applications, which include AI assistants, music playback, phone calls and hands-free texting. Ultimately, these devices could stretch out the smart phone replacement cycle, like phones have managed to stretch the replacement cycle for laptops. In the 2030s, we could even see a world where smart glasses are the default personal device. But while there could be big changes ahead, that doesn't mean that hardware and software incumbents are about to be disrupted. Wamsi Mohan discusses why he believes incumbents have a major advantage in smart glasses and much of it comes down to control of the ecosystem. There's risk for incumbent Internet companies too but many of them have proven adept at adjusting business models in the past and the new form factor could even enhance business models as Internet use rises further.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
USD overweight exposure is now normalizing
Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from questions around US exceptionalism. Alex sees German fiscal reforms as a game changer, another dollar negative. But our own survey shows very negative sentiment for the dollar, which is relevant to the short term. Mark Cabana contributes with a discussion of rates given the important interplay between the Treasuries and currencies. Mark believes that there has been a shift away from US Treasuries by global investors, although a lot of this recent shift is a function of investors reducing their overweight position rather than getting outright negative. Mark also discusses debt sustainability concerns and how budget negotiations may impact bonds going forward.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Looming tariffs lead to renewed focus on transfer pricing
Multinational companies have used transfer pricing as a way to reduce tax bills. Transferring a product from a lower tax jurisdiction allows profits to be taxed at the lower corporate rate, so a higher price can mean greater tax savings. But tariffs would be based on the higher price, meaning that some of the same companies using this practice to lower tax bills will also face higher levies. Travis Steed discusses what this means for medtech, the impact transfer pricing has had on tax rates, whether practices could change under a tariff regime and why the group is still a compelling, defensive investment
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Budget conscious consumers indulge in healthier foods
There's been a shift in snacking towards healthier options and away from some of the convenience store classics. A stretched consumer seeking value for their dollar seems to be allocating spend to cleaner alternatives. These often contain more protein and less of what's perceived as harmful. Rising GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) usage may be a minor contributor to these shifts too, though it's likely that more of this impact is ahead of us as penetration of these drugs rises and oral options arrive. Outside of food, alcohol consumption has fallen, creating structural headwinds industries like beer. Pete Galbo discusses trends and what these shifts mean for his coverage. Mike Dick, Consumer Sector Specialist, who is not a member of the research department, joins in to ask a few questions.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Euro defense spend benefits US contractors near-term
European plans to spend more on defense as a percentage of GDP were hatched in the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. More recently, the German Parliament agreed to reforms that allow for even more spending on defense. But for a number of reasons, Europe would like to keep more of this spending within the Euro Area. Ron Epstein and Ben Heelan discuss what Europe may be able to procure internally and what they'll be buying from US contractors. And if the US is spending less on defending Europe, Ron addresses where spending priorities may shift, especially as the US may be less focused on preparing for a land war. Ron also tackles the question of whether Europe may be encouraged to buy more defense gear in exchange for lower tariffs.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Dubai is embracing tech, should investors embrace AI?Our Global Investment Summit in Dubai offered attendees some perspective on what Dubai and the UAE are doing to advance AI. Panels also offered a look at how the technology is being used beyond the borders of the UAE and threats it brings. Sonali Thiesen, Global Head of FICC e-Trading and Markets Strategic Investments and Haim Israel were panelists at the Summit. Haim discusses the critical role that cybersecurity will play as AI evolves. He shares feedback and key ideas from his "World in 2030" note and addresses recent weakness in AI equities. Sonali discusses the continued shift to electronification in the fixed income markets, how machine learning continues to play a growing role in those markets and how Gen AI and blockchain have the potential to generate additional efficiencies.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
An interesting time to explore other shoresWe recently hosted a two-day Global Investor Summit in Dubai. Panels as well as formal and informal discussions touched on everything from the investment merits of Dubai and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to US policy to evolving views on non-US markets. Michael Hartnett discusses his latest views on international markets and how investors are reacting to uninspired price action from US stocks. With so many investors coming in to 2025 with a US exceptionalism portfolio, US policy risk has them reassessing regional positioning. But risks for non-US markets aren't absent either and Michael discusses his preference for international even amidst tariff risks.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Improved SMB macro positive for software but risks existSmall businesses have faced challenges, from higher costs to difficult hiring to higher rates and mixed demand. The Bank of America Institute examines the bank's proprietary data to better understand the US economy. Based on data through February, the Institute found that for the first time in three years, deposit growth among small clients surpassed balance growth, a sign of improved profitability. Taylor Bowley from the Institute discusses what's driving that improvement but cautions that tariffs and other risks are important to watch. Brad Sills discusses how small business makes up the majority of revenues for several software companies, so the health of these businesses is critical. Sluggishness in small business profitability over the last several years means that improvements, should they persist, could boost growth for these companies. Brad also discusses why software companies catering to small businesses have certain advantages that companies with larger customers do not.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Tariff fears, years of US optimism create opening for EMDavid Hauner has been bullish on emerging markets since the US Presidential inauguration, and that view has gotten more attention with performance of markets so far this year. Investors have been seeking out markets outside of the US and recent US policy uncertainty is one of the many factors causing this shift. David points to improvements in China and Europe, the inability for the dollar to rally further, off-sides positioning in EM, especially relative to the US, and still some positive catalysts ahead. He discusses markets where he still sees risks from tariffs as well as those where he believes investors may benefit from having exposure today. Hear why David believes that for EM in 2025, "things are really looking up".
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Reconstruction should boost demand for certain metalsAn end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would have an impact beyond the most important, which is ending the bloodshed. Russian natural gas could start to flow through Ukraine and into Europe once again, pushing Europe gas prices significantly lower, positively impacting European industry and dampening inflation. Oil supplies would be impacted as well and Francisco Blanch discusses how OPEC might react to in case Russia increases oil flows to the West. The supply of certain mined commodities, especially uranium and graphite, could rise as the US looks to secure access to these critical metals. And then there's the demand for metals that could come from the rebuilding of Ukraine. It's estimated 10% of Ukraine housing and 75% of electrical transmission capacity are casualties of the war. Michael Widmer discusses how demand growth for copper should see a significant uplift from Ukraine reconstruction.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
HY issuance recovers but net new credit largely absent
Spreads in the US high yield market are near the tightest levels ever, providing a constructive read on the US economy. Tight spreads and lower rates have led to a pickup in HY issuance, which recently approached more normal levels, but that has since slowed as rates moved up. And much of the issuance seen has been used for refinancing. The positive is that there could be another leg for issuance as companies sell debt to finance capex or acquisitions. This is the Fed transmission mechanism at work. Oleg discusses the impediments to such a shift and the implications of getting the election behind us. We also discuss private credit, how rapid growth in that market impacts high yield and where Oleg sees the best opportunities.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Insurance costs should continue to rise in high risk areasInsurance is in the news again following two damaging storms. Sadly, for many homeowners, much of the damage won't likely be covered by insurance given that it's flood-related and nationally, only about 4% of homeowners have flood coverage. Some homeowners will choose to add flood, adding to the cost of homeownership, but especially in Florida, there was wind damage too. This damage was inflicted on a FL insurance market where 15-20% of policies are written by Citizens Insurance, controlled by the state. Josh Shanker believes that Citizens has underpriced policies and as FL looks to shift these policies to the private market, insurance premiums should rise, adding to what are already the highest insurance premiums in the country. Josh also discusses strides made by the state of FL in reducing fraud in the state's insurance market, the impact that could have on pricing and the latest outlook for auto insurance where he's been bullish on pricing for several years.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Corporate transformation, AI could drive Japan equitiesLast month, BofA Global Research hosted its annual Japan conference. Over 500 investors joined, and attendance was up 2% versus the prior year. Japan equities rallied sharply through July, but then a rate hike from the BoJ and a stronger Yen disrupted the upward momentum. Daisuke Takato suggests there was more evidence of positive change at the conference. He reiterates Japan Equity Strategist Masashi Akutsu view that 2025 will be another leg higher in Japan's equity story as inflation helps drive higher wages, efficiencies and corporate transformation. Semiconductors could help Japan equity returns as Mikio Hirakawa believes Japan's semicap test equipment have and will benefit from AI-related demand for GPUs and memory.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Demanding investment in the grid and generationUS electricity demand growth in 2024 has run at a faster pace than GDP. This follows a decade in which demand hardly grew. And while data centers are an important driver of this recent growth, there are other, more important factors, namely building electrification. Reshoring and electric vehicles have also been a boost. The point is that the factors behind this growth are many, meaning that a slowdown in one area isn't likely to derail what should be years of increasing power needs. Our analysts discuss the challenges that nuclear faces in meeting US demand needs, the role of natural gas and the capital equipment that will be needed for both the grid and data centers. We also discuss the importance of renewables and how limitations keep them from being an around-the-clock baseload power solution anytime soon. Renewables do raise grid complexity and power price volatility, a benefit for the companies offering solutions.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
A ready-mix of positives for real estate
Last month, BofA hosted its annual Global Real Estate conference with record client attendance. Jeff Spector suggests that while investors have been underweight real estate the last couple of years as rates rose, recent outperformance is beginning to draw investors into the group. The fall in rates make REIT yields look more attractive, all else equal, and also come with a number of fundamental positives which we discuss within. REIT executives at the conference see the market for real estate transactions picking up, historically a positive for REIT valuations. And office, aside from being a particular beneficiary of rate cuts, received some positive commentary from real estate executives. Return to office mandates are leading to improvement in certain key US markets including Midtown Manhattan, which is presently one of the strongest office markets in the country. Also, high rates and pessimism on the part of developers in areas including office and retail has meant supply is muted.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Lower rates will drive home turnover and housing stocksMortgage rates have dropped by more than 100bps since last fall and housing stocks have responded. But while lower rates should in theory be good for demand, signs of improvement are modest so far. Many buyers remain on the sidelines as they await a further drop in rates. On the supply side, the new rate regime should reduce lock-in and allow more existing homes to come to market. This might seem to balance the increased demand, but Rafe Jadrosich also points out that home sellers usually become buyers. Plus, lower rates could drive the many high-income renters into the housing market. A pickup in transactions and housing turnover should benefit building products stocks from a cyclical standpoint. And some of these products also benefit from secular tailwinds.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Construction spend strong on structural tailwindsConstruction spending, excluding housing, is running at a rate of about $1-$1.2 billion annually, near record levels. Much of this spend is driven by recently passed legislative acts, according to Mike Feniger. But reshoring and AI are also having significant positive impact and the annualized capex for big tech has increased from $138 billion to $229 billion in just a year. Still, despite the headline strength, there are areas of construction which are weak, including warehouses, retail shopping centers and private office. The number of mega projects is slowing. Rate cuts and election certainty could be a catalyst for some of these lagging areas. Typically, housing benefits from rate cuts first and commercial construction sees a boost 1-2 years later but a lack of overcapacity in commercial construction could mean that there's less of a lag this time. Mike believes that large equipment rental companies are likely to benefit from this improvement, a view he discusses within.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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GenAI: Coming Soon to a Sector Near YouAlkesh Shah views Generative AI (GenAI) as the beginning of the third major tech cycle of the past 50 years. Over the past 10 years, development of more powerful chips and a new neural network architecture has raised the upper bounds of storage and computation exponentially, consequently reducing the time and cost to train increasingly large models powering apps like ChatGPT. Alkesh expects GenAI to catalyze a revolution in corporate efficiency and productivity that will occur far more rapidly than past disruptive technologies, which investors anticipate. Alkesh surveyed 157 equity analysts and macro strategists on AI's financial and economic disruption. Survey responses indicate that enterprise AI implementation could boost S&P operating margins by 200bps over the next five years. AI beneficiaries will likely expand from Semis and Cloud Service Providers in the first wave; Tech Hardware, Software and Capital Goods in the second wave; and ultimately touch every sector globally.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Labor market remains key to consumptionDiscretionary services grew unusually quickly as the economy reopened and savings buffers were high. In 2023, spending received another boost in the form of the Social Security cost of living adjustment, which contributed to rapid 4% GDP growth in the second half of the year. But now, things are slowing to a more normal, trend-like pace of 2%. And there's evidence to suggest that after outsized strength, spend on travel and other services is easing too. One of the positives that comes with this change is that it better balances supply and demand and slowing inflation can help boost real incomes. Another potential positive is that the Fed is close to cutting rates, and while it may take some time for that to help housing markets, Aditya sees benefits for other parts of the economy and for certain consumer segments. Labor markets are key to the outlook, but the recent loosening in these markets has more to do with slower hiring than with layoffs.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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A weakening relationship between nat gas and tempsIn the US, natural gas has struggled for nearly two years to cope with a storage surplus. Meanwhile, solar power generation has jumped to new highs. These are among the reasons that natural gas prices have languished despite growth in US electricity demand. And growth in solar capacity has weakened the formerly positive relationship between summer temps and gas prices. Francisco Blanch believes US power demand growth should continue into 2030, driven by data centers, electric vehicles, the transition to renewable energy, manufacturing and other areas. But while power demand growth should remain compelling, supply dynamics mean that the case for power and commodity price gains is less clear. Additionally, US election outcomes could impact much of the aforementioned. Meanwhile, Europe has seen power demand contract as industrial usage has declined while the Euro area also witnesses growth in solar and wind generation.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Value in Vegas has kept consumer demand resilientThe number of people traveling by air in the US continues to make records, but some airlines have posted disappointing results. That's because pricing has been weak as airline capacity has grown faster than demand. Andrew Didora does expect that airline capacity growth will slow after the summer, easing these pressures. But while demand for airline seats continues to make new highs, there are a number of areas that are undergoing normalization, especially very high-priced and very low-priced hotels as well as certain geographies including coastal Florida and pockets of California. Pricing for mid-priced hotels remains fairly strong, though. And demand for Las Vegas hotels and for cruises has remained resilient, likely because both offer compelling value for the consumer. With Vegas, entertainment options continue to broaden just as other cities in the West have faced various challenges. We'll discuss these post-COVID realities for travel and also address implications of rate cuts.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Slam dunk for streaming media in acquiring NBA rights
Earlier this month, Head of US Media and Entertainment Research Jessica Reif Ehrlich hosted her annual Media in Montauk conference. As is typical, discussions at the conference were most focused on long-term trends and strategy. Women's sports got a lot of focus, especially as the WNBA has seen rising ratings and interest. Year-round offerings are particularly important for streaming networks looking to combat churn and the scheduling of the WNBA helps, given that the season starts when the NBA is coming to an end. Jessica believes cable is becoming less important to media companies as streaming becomes more critical. The oldest form of video, broadcast, remains key because of its wide reach. Jessica suggests box office receipts should pick up in the back half of '24 and normalize by '25 as the impact of strikes wanes. There are mixed signals in travel and entertainment demand, with small cracks in concert demand but there's a new park scheduled to open next year in Orlando and that should drive traffic. Targeted ads on streaming services remain a big opportunity.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Job gains will slow but healthcare has room to runThe labor market has remained robust, adding an average of about 250k jobs monthly since the start of the year. But services jobs account for the bulk of the recent growth and at this point, demand in many parts of the service economy have fully recovered. Additionally, structural changes and shifts toward automation accelerated amidst the difficult hiring backdrop. Michael Gapen addresses questions about how much growth is left in services jobs, he explains what could account for the somewhat different messages being sent by the two government employment surveys and addresses the fading boost from fiscal policy. The US Economics team believes that job gains will slow but they're not expecting a sharp decline, partly because certain job categories like healthcare still have room to add employees.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Volume picture better for restaurants than packaged foodFood companies are seeing negative volumes, both in their grocery businesses and their food service businesses. The volume picture looks a bit better for the largest restaurants but it's also sluggish. Consumers seem to be economizing more than they were a year or two ago, one way is by eating more leftovers, or eating breakfast at home, and that poses some important questions for these industries as they seek to improve volume growth. But just as higher prices have pushed consumers into different foods and restaurant types, more promotional activity may help to bring them back. There's data to suggest that some increase in promotional activity is underway or may be soon. We'll discuss what we've found and what a pickup in discounting may mean for the companies engaging in it.
A weaker yen can boost exports and tourism profitsThe Japanese Yen hasn't been at these levels vs the US dollar since the late 1980s. There are two key drivers of this Yen weakness. One is the interest rate spread. The second, and probably more important longer term, is structural outflows from Japan and the biggest component of this is outward FDI (foreign direct investment) activity by Japanese corporates. The weak yen has mixed effects, boosting export competitiveness and helping tourism revenue but the softer currency also increases Japan's import bill at a time when Japan has become more reliant on them. And over time, export volumes have become less sensitive to the weaker yen, resulting in diminished benefits for the economy, especially in the short term. Still, Izumi Devalier does expect improvement in the Japanese economy in 2H24 as wage increases hit. And if the Fed cuts in December, Yen weakness should be largely contained. A further delay in Fed cuts would add additional risk.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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What's old is new again: bundling streaming servicesEntertainment and theme park spending growth has been weaker as demand normalizes from the post-reopening surge. But despite difficult comps, domestic attendance for key parks is flat to up with small and new attractions as a key driver. Indeed, we will get an important major new attraction in Orlando next year. In streaming, viewers can expect to see more personalized ads and ads that allow for more direct purchasing. Combined with election spend, there's a good backdrop for ad spend in the second half of the year. Bundled content is back, in streaming form, and what's interesting is that these bundles are often combining content that's not related-like a slimmed down cable TV package of old. And while overspending on content remains a risk, some secondary sports deals are coming in below expectations and premier sports can drive viewership and advertising for other content areas. The opportunity in media remains significant and below expectations while premier sports can drive meaningful viewership.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Buy now pay later slowing but still disruptingRising card delinquency rates, particularly among lower income consumers, are one of several pieces of data that have led some to take a negative view of the US consumer. But Mihir suggests delinquency rates have started to decline recently and discusses why that's been the case. Ultimately, employment is a key driver for consumer credit and we'd be more concerned if the outlook for jobs deteriorated more rapidly. "Buy Now/Pay Later" or BNPL has enjoyed rapid growth in recent years, particularly among younger consumers, but a combination of higher rates and a weaker consumer has stalled growth. Mihir believes that BNPL is most challenging for the traditional private label card issuer market (e.g. department store cards), and will continue to gain market share. Mihir also discusses the mortgage insurance sector which has less credit risk than in the past given today's higher underwriting standards and because of the equity that many homeowners now have, owing to home price appreciation.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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A slow but steady hand on the cut buttonThe eventual impact of higher rates on credit, the rise of private capital, slow loan growth and forthcoming tighter regulations have all weighed on bank multiples to varying degrees. But these attractive multiples relative to history, combined with a view that rates probably have peaked, keep Ebrahim Poonawala constructive on the bank group. This is particularly true for money center banks and large regionals, which are less impacted by regulatory changes coming in the wake of last year's bank failures. Ultimately, Ebrahim believes that the value of a bank comes down to the stickiness of its customer deposit base and the services it provides its customers. And certainly, there are a number of banks across the size spectrum that have attractive franchises from that standpoint. And the possibility of M&A, especially as there remain 4,000+ banks in the US, is also a key driver and one that will have disproportionate impact on small and mid-sized banks. The trajectory of Fed policy is a key consideration for the group and if the market were to move to price in a hike, that's a risk.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Strong demand and difficult supplyOver the last two decades, copper demand was inexorably linked to China. At times, China accounted for 110% of global copper demand growth. Now, countries are rebuilding their supply chains at home, building data centers and decarbonizing. While the source of copper demand has changed, demand growth remains compelling and strategist Michael Widmer is bullish on the metal while analyst Lawson Winder is constructive on exposed stocks, even as EV sales slow. On the other side is copper supply, which remains tight given the lead times necessary for new mine capacity. Uranium demand is driven by some of the same forces, as the possibility of new plants in the West rise. The uranium bear case is that 40% of the world's uranium is produced in Kazakhstan which could impact price.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Millennial home buying continues but in some new placesNew home sales are down only marginally from 2021 levels despite mortgage rates rising roughly 300bps over that period. Demand from Millennials entering peak home buying age, wealthy boomers and domestic migration have helped to offset affordability challenges created by higher rates. Existing home sales, however, have slowed to the lowest levels in roughly 30 years as homeowners are "locked-in" at low mortgage rates. A decline in rates would increase the supply of housing but Rafe believes the incremental demand would be greater than the additional supply. Rafe also discusses his outlook for new and existing home prices and the role shifting migration trends is playing in the housing market. Sunbelt population growth is still a key driver, but there are also signs that the Midwest is seeing growth due to attractive affordability and improving job market.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Big portion of retailers hoping for lower ratesHome improvement retail has been challenged by a number of factors of late, from pandemic pull-forward to weakness in existing home sales to inflation that's crowding out other spending. Lower rates would help and millennial home buying continues to provide some support for sales. Robby discusses the role home improvement stocks could play in the housing affordability challenges we face. Shifting to other areas in Robby's coverage, general merchandise sales have weakened as consumers battle shelter and food inflation while sales of big ticket items have suffered from high rates. We discuss continued challenges for dollar stores, the outlook for online grocery, why sales of fuzzy dice are succumbing to macro challenges and examples of data that Robby has found most useful.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
AI: Hardware Today, Software TomorrowCorporate investments in AI have had significant impact on the financials of certain semiconductor and server companies, but while software providers stand to benefit from AI investments too, the technology hasn't yet shown up in the profits of these companies in a meaningful way. Alkesh Shah draws parallels between AI today and the Internet in 1995. Back then, investments were mainly in equipment and chips and the successful Internet companies that we know today hadn't even emerged yet. Internet applications that exist today hadn't even been imagined in many cases, suggesting that for software, much of this opportunity is still ahead. For the market as a whole, the cost savings and revenue opportunities that may come from AI are also still very much in the future, and our survey of BofA analysts suggests corporate AI implementation could boost S&P operating margins by 250bps, equivalent to ~$65bn in cost savings, over the next 5 years.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Higher rates broadening the converts issuance marketConvertible bonds (CBs) can offer equity-like returns with downside protection thanks to the coupon and the ability to redeem most CBs at par. Thus far in 2024, CB issuance has been active, well ahead of levels seen the last few years. Michael discusses the reasons for such an active issuance year, including that Pandemic debt issuance, which was at record levels in the convert space, is starting to come due and converts offer issuers the ability to lower their coupons at a time of relatively high rates. We do have a constructive view on converts for 2024 but we're not overly bullish. That's because converts tend to be issued by smaller companies, and delayed rate cuts present a risk to those stocks. Also, continued appetite for mega cap tech could be a challenge for small caps. On an absolute basis, converts perform best when equities and GDP growth are strong, and relative to equities, they act best later in cycles. Institutional investors can purchase CBs outright but retail investors can gain exposure through mutual funds and exchange traded funds.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Earnings improvement is still fairly nascentIn 2023, we saw an earnings recession, at least in the first half of the year, despite GDP growth that was ahead of trend. Back then, companies were adapting to higher rates, weaker demand and climbing costs, which weighed on earnings. Ohsung Kwon expects earnings growth to look much better in 2024. This year benefits from a lower 2023 earnings base on which to build as well as a number of positives, including rising margins through more rational costs and improved demand in certain sectors. US Equity Strategy believes that capex growth from large cap tech will be virtuous, boosting other groups from semis to hardware to power grid equipment. The end of destocking indicates the end of the manufacturing recession and could be meaningful for the earnings recovery as consumers shift from services back to the goods side of the economy. And while estimating 2025 earnings is difficult as much can happen between now and then, we see compelling growth next year too, partly on better demand, helped to some degree by Fed cuts.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Data trends are approaching Fed threshold for rate cutsThe latest economic data releases this year suggest the labor market remains strong but is cooling and the consumer is resilient in the face of sticky inflation, especially on the services side of the economy. Michael Gapen says the rebound in the labor force, labor participation and net migration played a crucial role in his revised US GDP (gross domestic product) estimates where he forecasts higher economic growth in 2024 and lower growth in 2025. Much of this positive data has led the Fed to delay their first rate cut from March to June according to our US Economics team's forecast. However, equity market strengths should help keep inflation sticky, but shouldn't reverse the downward trend. Productivity enhancements from AI still aren't reflecting in the economic data and we're still a few years off until we see AI's impact.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Transports would ride the cycle but modes matterTransport metrics had been in an extended downturn for around 18 months. Demand was depressed, inventory levels were high and end demand for goods had faded from COVID highs. But more recently there are signs of stabilization in some of the data tracked by BofA Global Research, partly because trucking supply has been removed. And some purchasing managers indices, or PMIs, have shown modest improvement. Ken Hoexter discusses what this improvement means for different modes of transportation and when those modes would stand to benefit. And within transports, rails have a long track record of outperforming the S&P, but since the start of 2023, the group has underperformed. Ken discusses why performance had weakened, what's changed for the better more recently and the structural changes that could benefit the rail group.
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"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
A number of things can go right for Europe Earlier this month, BofA Securities hosted a Global Investor Summit in Rome, Italy. In attendance were corporate executives, prominent investors, policy experts, members of BofA management and several BofA Global Research strategists. Topics ranged from private capital to understanding central banks to the future of Europe. Michael Hartnett suggests that while European markets have been doing well, you often hear a less bullish view of the world in the region. Perhaps this is because of Europe's dependency issues, from energy to trade and beyond. But European stocks have done well at times of geopolitical peace. And Europe, with its dependence on trade, may benefit from the improving indicators that several BofA Research strategists have been highlighting. Join us in this special Europe-focused episode.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Global growth matters for Emerging MarketsAt the start of the year, markets were pricing in three rate cuts by June and now, the likelihood of one cut by June is close to 50/50 based on market implied probabilities. But while delayed rate cuts complicate the bull case for Emerging Markets (EM), David Hauner does point out that expectations for cuts have slid partly because of stronger economies, a positive for EM. Still, further delays in rate cuts would likely be a short-term negative for EM assets. Elections could create volatility as well. But a significant portion of EM outperformance does come around Fed cutting cycles and sentiment on China can't get much worse. David is bullish on EM over the medium-term, he discusses why, what elections could mean, the significance of what appears to be a trough in global PMIs and the tactical opportunities in EM.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
ESG topics still impacting stocks and there's more to comeUS ESG funds faced a challenging 2023, seeing net outflows of around $7.1 billion, but strong markets meant that assets under management grew strongly. In the US, ESG regulations have historically been market driven, unlike the specific directives in the EU, but more recently the regulatory landscape in the US has seen a flurry of initiatives. For investors, there is state legislation that seeks to penalize managers who boycott fossil fuels and firearms manufacturers and legislation in other states that seeks to keep pensions from investing in fossil fuels and firearms. There have been legal challenges to California's legislation but changes coming from the EU will still be relevant for global companies regardless of the California outcomes. The SEC will vote on the long-awaited climate disclosure rule later today. Dimple Gosai hosts Michael Littenberg of law firm Ropes & Gray to discuss the evolving ESG regulatory landscape and which regulations may impact ESG investors.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Rate policy isn't the only big Fed change likely for '24Since emerging from the COVID pandemic, the Fed has contracted the size of its balance sheet, also known as Quantitative Tightening (QT). They've done this by allowing their Treasury holdings to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This has placed upward pressure on yields, all else equal. But the Fed is expected to slow this process later this year. Mark Cabana says this is good news for the Treasury market as it means the private sector will have less total supply to absorb. And while some investors are fond of making the connection between the Fed balance sheet and the S&P 500, it's interesting that the S&P is making new highs while the balance sheet has shrunk, albeit from elevated levels. Mike Gapen discusses why that may be happening.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
M&A activity should increase but not everywhereM&A (Mergers & Acquisition) activity had fallen to well-below the 10Y average over the last 2 years. There are various reasons for this slowdown, including higher rates and negative corporate sentiment. But between equity markets faring well over the last year and interest rates off highs, there are some reasons to expect a recovery. Indeed, we've seen a bit of an uptick. We speak with Jill Hall who points out that SMID cap valuations are inexpensive relative to large caps-another M&A positive. But Jill believes that M&A will be focused in certain parts of the market. Bryan Spillane and Peter Galbo say consumer staples companies with healthy balance sheets could engage in M&A as it becomes difficult to push price further and these companies seek other ways to grow. EB Poonawala suggests that banks could benefit from both higher M&A fees and what could be an uptick in bank mergers, especially if there's political change in November.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
The dynamics of the US gas market about to changeUS oil production grew roughly 1mm barrels per day in 2023 and while US production growth may be slowing, it's growing elsewhere including in Guyana and Brazil. Such growth outside of Saudi threatens their market share, and that could mean even more supply as Saudi looks to take that share back. That all makes for a tough backdrop for the oil price and oil-levered equities, but the situation is more positive for equities levered to US gas. Significantly more LNG exports are expected to come online over the next 4-6 years, boosting demand for natural gas and reflecting positively for gas equities. Higher exports will require a higher clearing price to incentivize production, which is why the gas curve is upward sloping, a different picture than oil. Doug Leggate joins to discuss what all of this means for US E&P companies, how more M&A in the sector will lower costs for producers, and how the correlation of population growth will play a role in oil demand over the next decade.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Bundling, targeted ads among streaming growth drivers Streaming video choices have ballooned over the last decade and leading streamers are already reaching well over half of US households. But there are still a number of compelling growth drivers. The crackdown on password sharing is underway and can boost subscribers, so can bunding deals, such as those with wireless companies and there's still room for much better ad targeting. Meanwhile, streaming companies are slowing their investment in content, another positive for profitability. But it's important to weigh these positives against the headwinds from a declining linear TV business, which is problematic for some of the integrated media companies. Jessica Reif Ehrlich joins us to discuss her outlook for this dynamic group.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Investors face a much different backdrop in 2024Our Economics and Strategy teams expect central banks in developed economies to start cutting rates in '24, inflation to slow further and the dollar to weaken. But questions persist, ranging from which emerging economies may perform best amidst the weakening dollar backdrop, whether 10Y Treasury rates will follow Fed Funds rates lower, and if the markets might be too complacent about inflation and growth. Members of our Economics and Strategy teams join the podcast to answer these questions and provide their outlook for 2024. In case you're interested in a particular speaker, you can skip to a particular time: Claudio Irigoyen (0:58), Michael Hartnett (9:46), Mark Cabana (22:00), and Savita Subramanian (29:38).
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
GLP-1 impact should be big but lots of puts and takesAlmost 40% of US adults are obese and the US healthcare system spends nearly $173 billion a year on obesity-related medical costs. In the past, exercise and diet regiments were the best solutions for combating obesity but now there's an injectable called a GLP-1. These drugs trigger receptors in the brain to suppress appetites, cravings and addictive behaviors. Pete Galbo explains GLP-1s could mean less snacking but even years from now when penetration of these drugs is even higher, the impact on overall calorie consumption is likely to be small. Patients who were too obese for knee replacements could now be eligible, according Travis Steed, while some patients who lose weight may delay surgery for a period of time but its hard to see these drugs having a meaningful impact on knee replacement growth rates.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Lithium price likely to fall and take battery costs down too Lithium is one of the more abundant minerals found in the Earth's crust and relative to other metals markets, like copper, it's still fairly small in size, which helps to explain the volatility. Even though global EV (electric vehicle) penetration is expected to rise to 40% by the end of the decade, Matt DeYoe sees an oversupply of lithium in 2024 and 2025, pressuring prices for the metal and providing cost relief for battery suppliers and auto OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) that are working to provide consumers with more affordable EV options. But ultimately we do expect lithium prices to balance out at a fairly high level, relative to history, and the abundance of lithium supply means that, over the next few years, batteries are unlikely to be a constraint when it comes to vehicle availability.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
You can't fly to Ithaca when you're in Italy US network airlines have benefited from booming demand for international travel this summer. Revenues for US to Europe routes are 45% higher than pre-pandemic, helped by pent up demand and a lifting of all restrictions. Domestic beach and mountain destinations were great options in 2021 but have lost share as people set their sights abroad. But Andrew Didora believes we should see some normalization this Fall as people who had traveled internationally return to domestic routes. International profitability is well above pre-pandemic levels but that may not last. Cruise lines have lagged the recovery pace of airlines and things only returned to normal this year, so there's likely more of a recovery ahead. Plus, relative to airlines, cruise lines do tend to have more bookings visibility and less exposure to volatile fuel prices.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
AI to drive productivity and margin expansion over time Companies have faced rising cost pressures as they emerged from the short-lived COVID downturn. The price of raw materials, labor and money has all risen but there are positives that come with this changing dynamic-companies are forced to focus on efficiency. Savita Subramanian believes we are at the forefront of a productivity boom driven partly by AI but also corporate necessity. Savita points out that the pace of margin deterioration has slowed since 1Q23 and she expects to see stabilizing margins going forward. A.I. helps growth and tech but also should help efficiency leaders in less efficient sectors.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Bond market expects the Fed to get the job done Despite all the talk of sticky, structurally higher inflation, Meghan Swiber and the US Rates Strategy team find that after disaggregating the yield curve the message from rates markets may be a bit different than the popular discourse. Yes, the yield curve inversion suggests the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts. But looking at implied real rates suggests these cuts are expected because inflation should come down to the Fed's target, not because of a big slowdown in the economy. As inflation falls, real rates become more positive and the Fed reacts by cutting. We'll also discuss positioning in Treasuries and long term inflation expectations.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Demand for new homes and single-family rentals should remain strong even in a mild recession Rental markets saw booming demand as people migrated and the economy recovered from COVID lows. But now, certain markets are facing high apartment supply, recent rent increases have made apartments less affordable and the consumer is less flush. Josh Dennerlein discusses apartment risks in the Sunbelt, why the single family rental market is generally more attractive than multi-family and why New York City rents are so strong. Housing analyst Rafe Jadrosich doesn't expect the millennial housing tailwind to become a headwind until the end of the decade. For now, demand is strong, the outlook for housing starts compelling and consumers and builders are both benefitting from what have been declining raw materials costs.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Tokenization of traditional assets accelerates Token prices have gone up, down and up again, but the development of distributed ledgers and blockchains has accelerated throughout the volatility. The technology is maturing as public permissionless blockchains become faster and cheaper; and as private permissioned distributed ledgers emerge, that enables financial institution and corporate use cases required for regulatory compliance, privacy and scalabilty. Distributed ledgers and blockchains have powered trillions of dollars in tokenized asset transfers, but the disruption that we expect across every industry has only just begun. An evolution of infrastructure is occurring that is likely to transform financial and non-financial infrastructure and public and private financial markets over the next 5 to 15 years.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
The bots are here to help For software companies, generative AI can add efficiencies to product development but the revenue side is where things can get even more interesting. For example, digital content design software largely serves professional designers, and thanks to proliferation of Internet advertising, social media and web presence, that market has grown nicely. But AI can help open these design tools to a much larger group, allowing consumers to, say, come up with custom designs for birthday party invites and club logos. Brad Sills discusses areas within software likely to benefit from AI, those that are threatened and why platform software vendors may be advantaged over point solutions as AI proliferates.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Treasury supply to hit $1 trillion over the coming months The debt ceiling drama has finally come to a close as Washington signed legislation to raise the debt ceiling and avert default. But the next chapter abruptly follows and involves $1T of Treasury Bill issuance over the next 3 months, 5x the average annual supply. Mark Cabana discusses the impact that may have on shorter term Treasuries, the outlook for long dated bonds and whether the agreed upon spending caps will dissuade any of the Treasury bears.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Mine-d the compelling long term story for metals Demand for metals is expected to ramp further as the world transitions to greener and more sustainable energy. But mining and processing more of these metals will require substantial capex and we'll likely need higher metals prices to spur that investment. Metals strategist Michael Widmer believes we need to invest around $160 billion per year, well above the $90 billion we currently spend. Investment in the electrical grid will have to increase as well, but these investments are currently harder for many regulators to stomach as consumers are already pressured by rising costs for everything from groceries to car payments. We discuss bottlenecks on the way to net zero and how the energy transition may also usher in changes like fixed price power bills.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Consumer lending remains positive for now but does a weakening consumer threaten that strength? The collapse of several regional banks earlier this year has raised concerns around credit availability, especially as loan standards were already tightening into the spring. While Fed data shows that bank balance sheets are still expanding, loans tied to the commercial & industrial sector have declined 6% annualized over the last 13 weeks and it's consumer lending that has held up better. We discuss whether mounting weakness in consumer spend threatens lending and the role that regional banks play in the provision of credit.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Negative sentiment pervades but depth of possible recession key to market pathOur proprietary survey shows investors are as pessimistic as they have been all year, leading to the biggest shift to bonds from equities since the Global Financial Crisis. But the news is not all bad. Savita Subramanian notes companies have effectively cut costs driving stability or improvement in margins and one reason March quarter results beat expectations. Though not constructive on markets at the index level, she sees opportunities in certain sectors. But recession still looms and according to Elyas Galou, every past Fed hiking cycle has ended with a credit event. He suggests the next major credit event could lead us to the next recession, a risk for markets but a buying opportunity once it happens. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Biodiversity loss presents risks to the planet, company reputations and supply chainsBiodiversity provides us with essential ecosystem services such as pollination, water purification and climate regulation. Mentions of biodiversity in the news have soared 200% over the past two years, suggesting growing interest and awareness. Dimple Gosai, Head of US ESG Research thinks biodiversity related investments may grow 20x from today. In her work she concludes that within higher emitting sectors such as Energy, Industrials and Utilities, companies that address biodiversity losses tend to trade at a relative P/E premium. And companies that harm biodiversity may face financial and reputational risks. We're also joined by expert speakers Sofía Condés and Ingrid Kukuljan to discuss the role of food and agriculture in preserving biodiversity and why investors should consider biodiversity in their strategies. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Blockchain innovation and app development continuesBlockchains are implementing innovative but differentiated approaches to improving the tradeoff between scalability, decentralization and security. We expect blockchains that expand functionality and incentivize development to become attractive for developers in the near term. Over the longer term, we expect blockchains that prioritize usability and effectively market themselves to gain market share by attracting a robust and diverse ecosystem of applications that drives adoption, network effects and cash flows. Despite last year’s digital asset correction, development continues for Layer 1 distributed ledgers and blockchains, Layer 2 scaling solutions and oracle networks and Layer 3 applications with real world uses. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Consumer resilient but gradually slowing The Bank of America Institute joins for a discussion on the many data sources they examine, sources that offer a multi-dimensional look at the consumer. Data suggests the US consumer has weakened somewhat since the start of the year, with household spending growth falling to the lowest level since February 2021. Some of the weakness is likely temporary and follows what was a very strong start to the year, and it's noteworthy that total payments, which goes beyond credit and debit card spending, are stronger than card spending. We also discuss regional differences in job growth, how spending in the Midwest has held up better than elsewhere and offer reasons why female labor participation continues to lag.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Economic concerns and increased funding costs may combine to help slow a resilient US economyThe consumer economy has remained strong in the face of rate hikes and labor demand has remained resilient. But recent stresses in the banking sector give Michael Gapen more confidence in his view that the US will see a mild recession later this year. Banks had started to tighten lending by the end of the 4Q and a combination of economic concerns as well as higher cost funding and more regulations could lead to even more tightening. Inflows into money markets are notable and probably don't reverse until the Fed is cutting rates again according to Mark Cabana.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Blockchain innovation and app development continuesBlockchains are implementing innovative but differentiated approaches to improving the tradeoff between scalability, decentralization and security. We expect blockchains that expand functionality and incentivize development to become attractive for developers in the near term. Over the longer term, we expect blockchains that prioritize usability and effectively market themselves to gain market share by attracting a robust and diverse ecosystem of applications that drives adoption, network effects and cash flows. Despite last year's digital asset correction, development continues for Layer 1 distributed ledgers and blockchains, Layer 2 scaling solutions and oracle networks and Layer 3 applications with real world uses.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
We're only tapping into 1% of global data, artificial intelligence should allow us to make use of much moreGenerative AI models such as ChatGPT have dominated headlines and adoption has been particularly swift. But generative AI can do much more than write college essays. Haim Israel thinks this is an "iPhone moment" where a new technology exists that will revolutionize our lives more than many of us currently appreciate. Justin Post describes how generative AI can enhance social media content and even improve monetization of search. Vivek Arya believes the greater need for processing will boost demand for semiconductors and semicap equipment.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved
Chinese resorts benefiting from pent up demand but international leisure destinations will gradually pick upChina's COVID reopening unleashed nearly 3 years of pent up business and international travel demand. So far, domestic travel has dominated the recovery as international travel has been hampered by passport and visa frictions. Nathan Gee believes that as these constraints ease international travel can recover to 50-60% of normal by year-end. Shaun Kelley explains that while Chinese tourism remains fairly small for the US, gaming markets like Las Vegas could benefit and recovery incrementally helps LA and SF, markets which have recovered more slowly than others.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
EU banks seeing various factors change for the betterSince the Global Financial Crisis, investors have avoided European banks as the companies navigated the low to negative interest rate backdrop and greater regulatory hurdles. But with interest rates having risen and disciplined cost management, European banks have become profitable again thanks in part to a surplus of low cost deposits. Alastair joins us to discuss how European banks are now better capitalized, poised to lend again, expand their securities books and yet valuations are still compelling vs history. And while a recession isn't off the table, banks are well positioned for the sort of shallow recession that could come.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Improvement coming but there's much more to goIn the US, more than 6 million Americans are living with Alzheimer's disease and by 2060, Alzheimer's disease cases are predicted to rise to an estimated 14 million people. However, a number of therapeutics are entering the marketplace this year showing promise of reducing plaque in the brain and a slowing of cognitive decline. Data so far suggests relatively modest improvement but Geoff believes a combination of some of these therapies and greater innovation in diagnostics can lead to greater improvements over the next 5-10 years. Charlie predicts there will be multiple players in the Alzheimer therapeutic space and with pricing trending downward, the cost benefits may lead to a multi-billion dollar market.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
CBDCs: The future of money and paymentWe view digital currencies, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as a natural evolution of money and payments. Digital currencies and programmable payments already exist, but the underlying CBDC infrastructure is what makes these digital currencies so transformative and will likely change how and when value is transferred over the next 15 years. There are currently 114 central banks exploring CBDCs, up from 35 in May 2020, representing 58% of countries globally and over 95% of global GDP. However, central banks and governments can't build new financial systems based on distributed ledger technology alone and have indicated that they will leverage the private sector to drive digital asset innovation. Our view is that CBDCs have the potential to revolutionize global financial systems.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Weaker labor the key to lower spend and inflationConsumer spending is challenged by a number of well-discussed factors including inflation and fading stimulus but there are some positives too. The prices of many goods are down from highs, minimum wages for several states rose at the start of the year and Social Security payments for '23 enjoyed an unusually big boost. Aditya Bhave and Robby Ohmes join us to discuss how these various drivers net out, the outlook for higher and lower income consumers, how the expected slowdown in labor markets is necessary to slow wages and how job losses should have a bigger impact on spend than the wealth effect had in 2022. Mike Dick from Specialist Sales will get into more detail with Robby on issues including to what degree a stretched consumer is trading down and whether it becomes harder for suppliers to push through price increases from here.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Major R&D requirements mean obesity market likely to be dominated by large biopharmasThe CDC estimates the US obesity prevalence is nearly 42%, making it a common and costly disease for Americans, especially as it is associated with other health afflictions. However, a new generation of obesity therapeutics is set to enter the market over the next few years and these offer greater weight loss than prior generations, fewer side effects and may offer cardiovascular benefits. But the initial costs for drugs aren't low, especially considering how many people could be taking them. Geoff and Alex join us to discuss the pipeline for obesity therapeutics, when we can expect to see these drugs impact results for large biopharma and what could stand in the way of achieving what have become fairly optimistic expectations.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2023 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
From commodities to food packaging, costs have eased but when will consumers and producers benefit?Food at home CPI has been growing double digits Y/Y but the cost of a number of inputs, from grains to coffee to chicken to transportation are well off highs and back to early '21 levels in some cases. When will consumers benefit and will producers translate these lower costs to higher margins? Bryan Spillane and Peter Galbo join us to discuss areas within the food and beverage groups where prices will remain sticky, areas that could see some price relief and why some beverage companies could be well positioned in an environment of lower costs and thriftier consumers.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
FTX, Industry Development and Corporate EngagementFTX's bankcruptcy was a major blow to the digital asset industry's credibility, but development of distributed ledger and blockchain technology is accelerating and driving corporate engagement and adoption. This is a rapidly developing industry that needs time to mature, given much of the technology is less than 3 years old. Alkesh notes that FTX's collapse may lead to increased urgency for a comprehensive regulatory framework, which is critical for mainstream adoption.
ou may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Better information and more accurately priced perils could have an important impact on where we choose to liveWe've witnessed costly floods and wildfires over the last several years, raising questions about whether consumers and lenders may begin to avoid certain parts of the country and certain properties. We're joined by Matthew Eby, CEO of First Street Foundation to discuss how they're making data on flood, heat and wildfires more accessible to consumers, federal agencies, insurance companies, banks and investors which could impact future migration patterns. We also hear from analyst Ian Rogow of BofA Global Research on how all this may impact municipal bonds.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
FTX, Alameda, Illiquidity & Contagion FTX and its affiliated company Alameda used illiquid tokens as collateral, which resulted in the token losing its value, to liquidity issues that have ended in the bankruptcy filling. The digital assets ecosystem has been impacted by these events and the top 100 tokens market value dropped by 15%-20%. Also, regulators may ramp up the enforcement actions to protect investors in the US. Alkesh noted that the blockchain technology is still finding application and adoption, and these events will not affect that trend.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Demand for European luxury brands in non-traditional luxury cities one of the many growth drivers Luxury goods sales have grown at a 9% annual rate over the last 20 years. Growth drivers have shifted over time but Ashley Wallace sees more ahead. And this compelling growth suggests to Ashley that the the selloff in shares provides an opportunity. Cultural relevance is rising, with increasing mentions of luxury brands in song lyrics, including Beyonce's 2022 "Renaissance" album, and strong connections to top Instagram accounts. And while expansion into China may be slowing, less traditional US luxury markets, including Charleston, are becoming more relevant.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
As the US pivots back to the great power competition, defense spending likely to be supported for years Ron Epstein joins us to discuss how the US national security strategy has pivoted from addressing non-nation threats such as terrorism to addressing threats from competitor nation states. Protecting against these nation states requires the ability to project power over long distances, meaning a prioritization of spend on equipment including submarines and aircraft carriers. Ron also explains why defense companies tend to have high returns, low capex risk and why inflation and interest rates are much less of an issue for the industry than for other parts of the market.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
OPEC Cuts, Inflation Reduction Act, RepowerEU could ultimately boost the US through energy dominance While higher rates and slower growth have driven down commodity prices, oil prices remain well bid, something Francisco Blanch expects to continue. Fearing slower global growth, OPEC+ cut oil production but other factors played into the cut too, including general inflation. But higher oil isn't necessarily problematic for the US longer term. We discuss how the US, especially if it refrains from imposing energy export bans, can use a combination of energy production and renewables to become more energy dominant, boosting its global clout and strengthening its relationship with Europe. For more on the OPEC+ cut and broader impact, please see Issue #1 of our FAQ series.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Software tends to feel a recession later than other areas S&P software enjoyed a great run in the back half of last decade but higher interest rates and elongating sales cycles haven't been kind to the group over the last year. Brad Sills joins to discuss how he expects the onset of a recession to be an overhang for the group. Still, he points out that many stocks are getting very little credit for growth, as they're mostly trading on the value of their recurring business. Brad discusses why renewal rates are so important for software companies and why there's still substantial opportunity ahead, especially in small and medium business software and migration to the cloud.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
China's economy is expected to improve next year as many other economies slow China's zero-COVID policy has been a drag on economic activity, property markets and popular sentiment in China and we expect a gradual reopening to start later this year. Thus, China's economy is expected to grow next year as the rest of the world deals with persistent inflation, an energy crisis and what's likely to be a global recession. Winnie joins us to discuss how the reopening will drive demand for discretionary products and services over staples. She also provides an update on China's regulatory crackdown of the internet sector, how the goal of an innovation-driven economy will be impacted by escalating geopolitical tensions with the US and will address the outlook for equities next year.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Digital assets fall as rates rise, Ethereum's next upgrade, US regulatory update Digital assets are acting like high growth technology and were impacted earlier this year due to higher than expected inflation and rate hikes, but stablecoins grew over the last few weeks. Alkesh explains the successful Ethereum merge and what is expected of the next upgrade on the platform. The current proposals for a comprehensive US regulatory framework identified opprotunities and risks across the ecosystem.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Why are labor markets so strong and when will wage gains finally slow? The reopening of the economy led to another leg higher in labor demand and even as some jobs related to the movement of goods have become redundant, demand from services industries, which tend to be more labor intensive, kept labor tight. Adding to the wage strength, job switchers tended to get the biggest raises. But with much of the reopening behind us and with the Fed aggressively raising rates, Michael Gapen joins us to discuss what's ahead for labor, whether there's room for labor supply to rise from here and whether wages may be more stubborn this cycle.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Can the Inflation Reduction Act live up to its ambitious name?
The IRA or Inflation Reduction Act passed last month is the largest climate and energy package in U.S. history. It earmarks nearly $370 billion in spending towards renewable energy. And while the benefits for residential solar are fairly clear, here we focus on the impact to utilities and the impediments and pitfalls around the energy transition. Julien discusses why corporate and industrial customers may be a critical force behind the transition, the role of nuclear and hydrogen, the need for transmission and pipeline infrastructure and what all of this could mean for power prices.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Uncertainty remains as buying momentum and Ethereum Merge optimism fade
Buying momentum in the digital asset sector is fading as investors rotate defensively into stablecoins, likely due to uncertainty around the bear-market bounce's sustainability and potential for a hard recession. Alkesh explains the implications of Ethereum's Merge upgrade, which is likely to occur around September 15th.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Managed care companies have transformed over the past decade. In 2008, the average managed care company generated about 58% of revenue from commercial or individual plans; today that number has fallen to 18%. Health care companies have increasingly diversified their revenue mix into government programs and also outside of the core health insurance business as they increasingly own physician groups and home health providers. Kevin Fischbeck joins us to discuss this structural change and how it is that patients, doctors and managed care all seem to be coming out ahead. Also, Kevin addresses the latest on labor supply and implications from the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
5G benefits in the future, critical service now Telecom companies provide a service to consumers that’s basically a utility. But over the past few quarters, telecom stocks have traded close to all-time lows on a P/E basis. David Barden joins us to discuss how networks have improved to the point where there’s much less differentiation and many customers are bringing their own device, all of which has upped the competitive quotient. Still, wireless companies have spent billions on 5G while much of the revenue opportunity is still ahead. And fixed wireless broadband has boomed, now accounting for about 100% of net retail broadband adds from close to 0% in early 2021. It’s a product that offers a compelling trade down option for many consumers. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
EU gas likely to remain tight for years, a persistent issue for industries and consumers
High prices have already destroyed about 10% of European gas demand but curtailed flows from Nord Stream 1 could require another 10% decline in gas use. Industrial demand is likely to take the biggest hit from these curtailments and we look at the Aerospace and Defense industry specifically to understand how various parts of it may be impacted. Europe has already committed to using other sources of energy, from LNG (liquid natural gas) to renewables, but this will take time and in the interim, many European companies will be forced to find their own solutions, which may include moving production from Europe. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Migration trends could shift again as cost of living benefits for popular post-COVID cities vanish During the pandemic, homebuyers left urban centers for the suburbs, particularly Sunbelt regions, in pursuit of a lower cost of living and attractive climates. The impact on real estate prices has been widely discussed, but the population shift also created a greater demand for services such as restaurants. Local businesses didn’t have the staff to serve these new customers even as there was often a surplus of labor in the urban core, and this contributed to the imbalanced labor market we’re experiencing. Now with surging prices of homes and services in some of these areas, there may be less of a cost of living benefit to moving. And if fewer people are moving, we discuss what that could mean for sales of home related goods. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Oil drivers go well beyond potential slackening demand A further slowdown in the US, potential interruptions in Europe's gas supply, gasoline demand destruction in the work from home era, an SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) that needs to be refilled, there are a number of competing forces impacting oil and Francisco joins us to discuss how he believes they may influence price. Should Russia curtail gas supplies to Europe, the European economy may slow further but a scarcity of gas and power could also boost demand for alternative power sources, like diesel. Over the longer term, though, energy demand will face challenges as the world transitions to EVs and the peak for transportation fuel demand isn't that far off, something that will impact investment in new capacity and and eventually demand.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Separating Web3/Digital Assets adoption from price volatility The current shakeout of the digital asset sector is ultimately likely to be healthy for the industry. Despite the market state, we believe focus should be on the tokens that power blockchains and on applications with strong user adoption, developer activity, clear use cases and roadmaps to cashflow and profits. Also, stablecoins have the ability to coexist with potential central bank digital currencies, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are moving beyond just art and collectibles. In this episode, Alkesh explains what the digital asset sector's price volatility means and how the digital asset space is continuing to evolve. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Semis remain cyclical but secular strength should capture market focus again Over the past decade, semiconductors (semis) have outgrown electronics on rising content and semiconductor growth has outpaced GDP by 2-3x. Looking ahead, Vivek expects semis to continue to outgrow GDP on rising content and pricing. And yet, semis are still cyclical, something which the market is focused on presently, and exposed to inventory cycles and demand destruction from economic downturns. Vivek Arya joins to explain why semis are less hyper cyclical than in the past, what a recession could mean for earnings estimates, where surpluses are present and when shortages in other areas should lessen. And just because markets have fallen, doesn't mean the compelling reshoring story is over - that's another long term positive. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Staples companies looking a bit less defensive against this inflationary backdrop The Consumer Staples index recently logged it's 4th worst session in history suggesting the narrative on Staples is changing. A stretched consumer and pressure on discretionary sales is prompting some retailers to push back on price increases from staples companies and pushing some consumers to trade down. Bryan joins T.J. Thornton and Consumer Sector Specialist Michael Dick, who is not part of the BofA Global Research department, to discuss how high inflation is impacting consumer packaged goods companies (CPG), whether the Consumer Staples sector can still be considered defensive in this environment and whether this may all contribute to more M&A. Ultimately, Bryan believes staples aren't as well positioned as they've been in the past but pricing tiers and segments will help determine which companies handle this environment best. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Ticket sales for US airlines are close to fully recovered, but there are still demand drivers ahead Airline ticket prices are up relative to 2019 as demand recovers but supply isn't back to pre-pandemic levels. Corporate travel had lagged but is catching up quickly. But investors are trying to gauge the sustainability of the recovery, whether pent up demand fades and whether higher prices push the consumer to pursue lower altitude modes of transportation. Andrew joins us to discuss why he believes there's still demand strength ahead, how ticket prices still compare favorably to history and to other services in these inflationary times and the impact that higher oil and pilot shortages could have-one that is both positive and negative. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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It’s been a good ride for auto profitability, but as with many things, there’s a normalization coming Inflated vehicle prices have inflated auto profits too but Horst Schneider, Head of European Automotive Research, believes the days of outsized profits for automakers are numbered as supply and pricing both normalize. And chips may be scarce now, but slowing demand for electronics could mean that supply of chips for the auto industry improves sooner than some think. The shift to EVs and further penetration gains are undeniable, but Horst discusses some recent developments that could slow those gains somewhat. He also discusses some key competitive considerations for EV makers and new battery technologies that could solve cost issues further out. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Digital assets trade like risk assets and face many of the same headwinds The digital asset market is in a trading range near-term, but likely headed higher intermediate and long-term, along with other risk assets. Stablecoins had $6 trillion of transaction volume last year and are critical for future metaverse economies and for lowering the friction of making payments across borders. In this episode, Alkesh explains algorithmic stablecoins and the current state of the digital asset market. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
The 10-year yield has more than doubled since the start of this year, and it's now at the level at which it peaked in 2018. The higher 10Y yield has taken a toll on risk assets, especially growth stocks, and elevated rate volatility has contributed to the weakness. But Mark does believe 10Y yields have only modest upside from here and expects rates volatility to fall when the path for lower inflation becomes more clear and Fed moves more predictable. Mark also discusses the impact that structurally higher inflation could have on rates. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Forest products companies contributing carbon sequestration enter the sustainability and ESG discussion Forests are one of the largest sources of carbon sequestration through voluntary carbon markets. Wood products companies which own these forests harvest wood for housing and other applications and as long as the wood remains protected, as it would be in a house, the materials become a carbon sink. And from a revenue perspective, companies can sell carbon sequestration into the voluntary carbon markets, though those markets are still nascent. Awareness of the positive carbon attributes of wood could also boost wood construction and allow it to displace some concrete and steel. Join our discussion with George Staphos as he discusses forest product companies and their role in helping the world reach net-zero.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Despite shorter term macro headwinds, Miami conference demonstates growing interest and positive sentiment The digital assets market has declined with stocks and bonds and the market value of the 18,000 tokens that are in this ecosystem remains down about 16% year to date. Digital assets, including Bitcoin, continue to act like risk assets rather than inflation hedges. With an aggressive Fed as a top concern for investors, digital assets have struggled this year despite long term promise for many. In this episode Alkesh gives an update on Bitcoin Miami and insights gained from the BofA Global Research Crypto Mining conference. He believes that there are misconceptions around Bitcoin’s energy consumption, but that there is work to done to make mining more energy efficient longer term.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Gold holding up well despite higher rates and the dollar, likely more strength coming US equities, credit and Treasuries have outperformed gold for the better part of a decade. However, with inflation likely to remain above recent norms and the secular low in rates having passed, per Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett, there's a regime change underway, and what has worked won't necessarily work going forward. Joining us today is Paul Ciana to provide a technical view on the yellow metal and its relationship with equities, currencies and rates. Lawson Winder joins to give a fundamental view on gold, the implications of inflation on gold mining and whether crypto can be a substitute for gold.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Higher prices, rates and low inventories may make homeowners stay put and remodel instead Owing to an upward march in prices and rates, housing affordability is as poor as it’s been since the housing crisis and down payments are at record levels. But there are many differences between this housing market and the market of ‘07/’08, particularly on the supply side. And that dearth of supply along with a reluctance to move into a higher mortgage rate could convince many to stay put and to upgrade their existing home instead, boosting home improvement demand. Meanwhile, home furnishings demand may be less persistent and could suffer as stimulus is lapped, there’s payback from demand pull-forward, and renters get squeezed by climbing monthly payments. Joining us to discuss these issues and more are BofA Global Research analysts Rafe Jadrosich, who covers homebuilders, Curtis Nagle, who covers home furnishings as well as real estate fintech and Elizabeth Suzuki who covers home improvement and other hardline retailers
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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It's called "defense" after all, and ESG investors taking a more nuanced view of the group ESG investors have traditionally viewed defense and energy sectors as off-limits or at least challenging to their objectives. However, defense and energy stocks have seen dramatic gains this year as energy prices have boomed as have plans for defense spending. Many ESG investors had already been moving toward a more nuanced approach, looking for ESG improvers rather than just excluding certain groups and companies, a move that has been accelerated by recent realities. Defense companies that were once associated with harmful practices may now be viewed as champions of freedom and democracy and the EU taxonomy around ESG investing seems to allow this as long as companies aren't wholly opposed to social objectives. Savita Subramanian and Ronald Epstein join us to discuss these issues and how defense may benefit from both higher spend and a widening pool of investors.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Despite pricing pressures, digital assets continue to grow and a regulatory framework is imminent The crypto asset market is up 250% since January of last year despite a 20% correction at the start of 2022. Demand for digital assets continues to grow and Alkesh believes values will continue to appreciate in the medium term but will face macro pressures from liquidity and rate concerns in the near term. He explains how recent regulatory action can be a positive for crypto markets as users become more comfortable adopting technology that is regulated with protection for consumers and businesses. Alkesh also sees greater usage of NFTs not only as ownership of a unique asset but also as a marketing tool for brands across many industries.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
COVID recovery, an aging population and still plenty of room for innovation will drive growth In 2020, the MedTech industry faced revenue pressures as COVID related headwinds forced many patients to avoid the hospital for elective procedures. As COVID risks fade, the industry has returned to growth and the demographic and innovation tailwinds that have helped to drive steady growth remain. Travis joins us to discuss how some of the biggest MedTech markets, from diabetes to heart surgery, will benefit from continued innovation, helping the group and potentially millions of patients. And thus far, MedTech has actually benefitted from the increase in the number of surgeries done outside of the hospital. Travis also highlights that hospitals are now better equipped to handle future COVID spikes and MedTech should remain resilient even through a negative economic backdrop.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Higher recycling rates will be key to the energy transition and it starts with product design Metals including copper, aluminum and nickel should see booming demand as the world transitions to cleaner energy. These MIFTs, or Metals Important for Future Technologies, could be in short supply in the future, however, with electric vehicles requiring twice as much copper as a traditional ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and far more nickel, cobalt and lithium, which are hardly used in traditionally powered vehicles. There's simply not enough investment happening in mining, but recycling offers a partial solution while also emitting much less carbon than pulling metals from the ground. Michael discusses important considerations around building a more efficient recycling supply chain, product design being one of the keys.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Safe drivers look elsewhere for discounts as the auto insurance industry is entering a hard market During the peak of COVID lockdowns, miles driven declined dramatically while auto insurers posted highly profitable quarters and policy holders enjoyed premium cuts and rebates. But the pandemic recovery commenced, pushing miles driven higher along with pricing for used cars and parts and forcing a reversal of fortune for auto insurers. Josh Shanker joins us to discuss how the the recent hit to auto insurance profits will result in insurers pushing premium prices higher, likely leading consumers to shop around for better rates and resulting in market share shifts. He advises consumers to shop for insurance early while insurers and regulators implement premium increases. Josh also discusses long term implications for the industry from innovative safety technology and autonomous vehicles.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
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Cryptocurrencies - Not just for speculating Cryptocurrencies have received a lot of focus in recent years as crypto market values have turned some small investors into wealthy investors. But with the number of tokens proliferating and numbering over 17,000, it's clear that many will not create wealth and it's critical to understand which tokens offer usefulness and potential longevity. Alkesh Shah joins us to discuss some of his new analysis and how daily active users, transaction count and developer activity can help indicate which blockchain platforms will grow and which will shrink. Regulation will play a key factor in the mass adoption of stable coins and how consumers can exchange their coins for dollars. Alkesh also discusses the use of NFTs and how they can grow from digital art to an ownership contract or an event ticket.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Fore! A new generation of golfers coming to a golf course near you. . . COVID lockdowns fueled a shift in spending to solitary leisure activities but even as recreational options have expanded since the spring of 2020, there's still a tailwind for "local leisure." First time home buyers moving to the suburbs found themselves filling their empty homes with furnishings, fitness bikes and recreational gear they now had space to store and the ability to use. The Great Resignation and remote work motivated early retirees and others to flock to warmer climates in pursuit of lower taxes and more balanced lives. Robby Ohmes joins us to discuss how these demographic shifts will impact consumption and implications for sporting equipment, household purchases and the renaissance of motorcycle touring.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
At the low or more to go? Technical analysis can help The equity sell-off, which has been extreme for a long list of stocks, has many investors wondering, "where's the bottom?" Have multiples compressed enough, what if forward numbers get cut, do shares already anticipate that? Technical indicators, especially when a number of them are sending a similar message, can help to remove the emotion and identify when markets may have gone too far, perhaps they suggest exhaustion of sellers, even in case of more bad news. Stephen Suttmeier, Chief Equity Technical Analyst and Paul Ciana, Head of FICC Technical Strategy join us with a focus on some of the methods that can be used to help identify lows.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Now it’s Omicron straining supply chains . . . will inventory levels ever return to normal? Last fall, as retailers began to prepare for the upcoming holiday season, consumers were advised to shop early to avoid supply snags. While people mostly found what they wanted, Omicron hit late in the holiday season, threatening supplies for 2022. Lorraine Hutchinson discusses this past holiday season for retailers, how much of the merchandise margin benefit retailers may be able to maintain, the impact of higher shipping costs in the holiday quarter and how buying for holiday ’22 will be impacted by all of this.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
SMID Cap IPOs and small cap growth equities underperformed last year, is it 1999 all over again? Last year, equity markets rose to record levels and market strength as well as numerous other factors boosted retail investor participation. But as risk aversion took hold, many of these popular retail stocks and other SMID cap growth stocks began to falter. Also, there was an IPO boom, including many companies with no earnings, leading some to compare the environment to the tech bubble of '99. Jill Carey Hall advises us the environment is different from that of the late '90s as IPOs are more diversified, the number of public companies is still much lower, and IPO deal value as a proportion of total US market cap is less extreme. John Egan discusses the downward pressures on growth stocks and headwinds to equities but believes much of the sell off is close to over and looks for lower volumes and volatility to help gauge the bottom.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Passive investing, meme stocks . . . could alternatives be the next wave for retail investors? Historically, private investments were only accessible to ultra high-net worth clients and institutional investors. More recently, however, the asset management industry has renewed its focus on developing products that are accessible to a larger investor base and the offerings are increasingly compelling, with strong performance and lower minimums. Penetration of private market strategies in the retail channel remains low at only 1-2%, it could rise to 5-10% over the next 5 years and RIAs and wirehouses are a few of the ways a retail investor can access these alternative strategies. BofA strategists are generally bearish on key markets for 2022 due to potential volatility surrounding rate hikes which could make private markets attractive to retail investors. Also, if we see a market decline, it should make for a more attractive environment for asset managers to invest capital.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2022 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Home affordability falling but reasonable, demand to last years In the last 18 months, housing demand has significantly outpaced supply, and strong demand is likely to continue with the number of 35 to 44 year olds rising by 5mm over the next 8 years. Meanwhile, housing supply growth has been muted as construction was sluggish for years following the housing crisis. While this has pushed prices much higher, affordability isn't far from historical average and rentals have become more expensive too, such that buying makes more economic sense in many markets. Supply chain issues have made materials more expensive, but an easing of these issues could also help with affordability. And while rates are expected to rise next year, the increase will likely have a minimal impact of on the average mortgage payment and a less accommodative Fed could slow inflation, a positive.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2021 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Gas powered equipment is beginning to electrify, helping the planet and neighborly relations Much of Wall Street’s focus on electrification has been directed at vehicles, logical given the size of the global auto market, but what about snow blowers, chain saws, light towers and even generators? Gas powered equipment contributes to carbon pollution and generates a significant amount of noise. Many states and municipalities have introduced legislation banning the sale of some new gas powered equipment and in CA a ban is coming. But electrics are increasingly attractive to consumers as well, and penetration rates have room to rise--they’re only around 20% in mowers, for example. In the commercial equipment rental space, ESG conscious consumers are beginning to demand electric alternatives in their construction projects. US Machinery Analyst Ross Gilardi discusses the electrification of consumer and commercial grade power equipment and impact on the hundred billion+ dollar market.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2021 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Earnings risk from China policy moves may still be ahead but investors view some of these changes as positive China policy tightening is already impacting economic growth but some of the earnings impact may still lie ahead. BofA Global Research recently held a highly attended two-week China Conference in which investor surveys were conducted on the state of Chinese markets and the economic outlook. A majority of survey participants expect China's GDP growth to slow in 2022, and of course, this can have spillover effects to the rest of the world. When it comes to common prosperity, though, many more investors view it as necessary and as a positive for long term China growth than view it negatively. The property sector is a key driver of wealth inequality and is at risk of continued policy tightening and property appreciation may be capped. Winnie suggests the worst of the policy tightening may be behind us but earnings could still disappoint, helping to keep her neutral
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2021 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Fossil-fuel based feedstocks and low recycling rates are an issue for the plastics industry, but substantial resources are being devoted to fixes The percentage of plastic that actually gets recycled is in the single digits and proper sortation continues to be a challenge, limiting the end uses for recycled plastic. This creates multiple issues, from water pollution to demand for landfill space to carbon emissions. The plastics industry has aggressively gone down the path of finding technologies that ameliorate these issues because shareholders and consumers have demanded it. The focus for the last several years has been mechanical recycling but more sophishisticated and advanced approaches are now in focus including turning plastic back into virgin-grade product. As for chemical production, one of the more promising areas of focus has been the use of renewable feedstock, everything from tree oil to cellulose to cotton t-shirts. This will require time and lots of capital, and while these are still a few years away, Steve Byrne suggests we are edging closer to a more sustainable way to produce plastics.
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2021 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.