The Cranky Flier: Recent Episodes

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After a lengthy battle, the new terminal at Kansas City International Airport opened earlier this week. For years, proponents and opponents of the plan sparred, and now… absolutely none of that matters. The new terminal is here, and it’s going to be provide a better experience for just about everyone who uses it… except those who care about car-to-gate distance and nothing else.

The original Kansas City airport terminal opened in 1972 which was the absolutely worst possible time to design and build a new terminal. It was created in a time before security and really, before the hub-and-spoke system, when the convenience of getting from car to gate was all that mattered. When universal passenger screening started soon after thanks to a spate of hijackings, the design became instantly obsolete.

But before I get into all the problems, let’s just take a moment to appreciate the original design. It was a geometry teacher’s dream with 3 circular terminals (in red) arranged in a cloverleaf fashion. It was even more geometrically fun when the square parking garages (orange) were added in later years. The roads (yellow) were also circular.

This design was perfect for the Kansas City origin or destination traveler. You could drive right up to the terminal and get dropped off or picked up right where your gate would be. You just had to walk in, check your bag, and off you went.

The idea was that you’d spend so little time in the terminal that the terminal itself could be tiny. There’s no need for amenities if you won’t be spending any time there. But when security was introduced, that started to show the airport’s shortcomings.

With such a narrow terminal, putting security in was an afterthought that still tried to cater to the local traveler. There were many checkpoints throughout each terminal, so that travelers could still go into the airport near their gate. But there was no way to go between gates after security.

Many airlines tried to hub in Kansas City over the years, but all failed. This was more a commercial issue than anything else, but I imagine the difficulty of connecting at least played some part in that.

After 9/11, things got really bad. Now travelers had to arrive at the airport even earlier to go through extended security, and that meant they wanted amenities on the other side. It took creativity to even get the basic food and newsstand options set up, and the place was bursting at the seams.

Meanwhile, Southwest had wanted to keep growing its operation at Kansas City, but that required increasing numbers of connecting passengers. So what happened? They stapled on these so-called “gerbil tubes” on the airside of the terminals to allow passengers to connect between gates in different secure areas. It was an impressive effort, but it was obviously not sustainable as a long run solution.

The industry’s move toward upgauging was the final nail in the coffin. With more people on each airplane — especially with Southwest getting 175-seat airplanes versus its historical fleet of 143 seats or less — it just became an untenable situation with gate areas far too small for what they needed to hold.

Sure, DFW had a similar problem, but those concourses were wider and more functional. Still, the circular design was just not one that made sense any more, and whenever DFW builds Terminal F, it will go a different route as well. When Kansas City had to decide what to do, the airport wisely opted to scrap the whole thing and start over.

The first thing that had to be done was open up some space. One of the terminals was decommissioned, knocked out, and made the location for the new single terminal.

There are no circles in the new terminal, it’s all hard corners. But it is pretty remarkable to think that by trading the proximity to the curb, Kansas City could build the same number of gates (and more) in a much more compact space.

The new terminal has all the goodies that you’d expect to see in an airport. There’s even a Delta SkyClub with apparently a common-use lounge under negotiation. There’s barbecue and art and a bunch of gates with room for travelers to sit. It all sounds so basic, but in Kansas City, it just didn’t exist before.

The new terminal certainly lacks the uniqueness in design of the old airport, but it effectively eliminates all the problems that have plagued the old terminals since they opened. That’s what really matters.

This isn’t going to magically enable a mid-continent hub to work at the airport, but as long as the airport costs don’t skyrocket too much, then it will enable airlines to grow and add new service in a way that might have been tough in the old setup.

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The 2023 Cranky Network Awards is over, and judging by how late everyone was hanging out in the bar after, it was a roaring success. If you missed it, this year’s event was audio/visual problem-free (after the slightly delayed start). You can see and hear it all at this replay link.

But before we close the book completely on this year’s event, we need to auction off some super cool Boeing airplane models. Boeing again provided models for us to use as centerpieces on the tables this year, and most were given to attendees. But I held four back to auction off here. Like last year, the winning bids will go to supporting pilot training.

If you’d like to support pilot training and get a deal on some models you likely can’t find on your own, then keep reading.

Like last year, these are not plastic models you find the airport gift shop. These are beautifully-crafted, 1:100 scale models that will make your friends drool (or your non-avgeek friends say “I don’t get it” while you angrily try to explain what they are missing.

The four models available this year are (with a small orange next to them for scale):

Allegiant MD-80 (made by Daron – retail value $219.95)Do we call this a Boeing airplane? Technically, yes. Of course, this is the pride of Long Beach, and unlike the other models, this one comes with the gear down.

Delta 717 (made by PacMin)We had one of these last year as well. It’s another Long Beach-built bird which won’t be in the Delta fleet for long.

United 737-9 MAX (made by PacMin)This MAX is in the old colors, or the interim design that had the swoopy cheatline. It’s in an action pose, showing the airplane in a bank, and unlike the rest which are attached to the stand with a screw, this one uses magnets.

Boeing House Colors 737-7 MAX (made by PacMin – retail value $495)Once this airplane is certified, you’ll get to see a whole lot of these in Southwest colors. But for now, it’s a rare bird indeed. Note that the Boeing House Colors have a flecked sparkle in the paint which make this look very cool.

After shipping costs, the winning bids will be donated to the Phoenix Chapter of the Ninety-Nines June Bonesteel Memorial Flight Training Scholarship, so win a model and do good for the industry. Here are the details.

• Bids can be submitted below through Friday, March 3 at 5pm Pacific Time.
• Minimum bid is $50 per model.
• The winning bid will include shipping to an address in the US or Canada. If you are outside these countries, you will need to pay extra for shipping.
• If you want to bid on multiple units, you can submit multiple bids for as many as you’d like.
• The winner will be contacted after the auction closes with a link to submit payment and a request for shipping address.

Loading…Thank you very much to Boeing for providing these models at the event!

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Regular travelers on American and Delta have long been used to flying on CRJ-900s, but United travelers have never had that experience. This changes on March 3 now that United has finally loaded the first Mesa-operated CRJ-900 flight for the airline.

Sure, United has had CRJ-700s (and CRJ-550s) under its brand for ages, but for some reason it has never had a CRJ-900. Delta has more than 150 split between Endeavor (over 100) and SkyWest. Meanwhile, American has nearly 75 under PSA… and it had 60+ with Mesa. That has shrunk and now it’s going away completely as I’ve written here before.

The transition to United is not wasting any time. Though Mesa will continue flying for American through April 3, it will now start flying for United a month earlier than that. This isn’t a problem for Mesa, which may seem surprising since it has been short on pilots for a long time. But it’s important to look at block hours to understand why this is won’t be an issue.

Mesa CRJ-900 Block Hours per DayData via CiriumAt the end of February, in just a couple days, Mesa’s flying for American is slashed in half. This isn’t just an abrupt stop but rather a somewhat organized wind-down. Then, just 3 days later, United will step in. The flying for both American and United combined in that first month is below what Mesa is doing alone for American in February, but that’s likely because it’s a logistical challenge to make all this flying work together.

When it starts in March, United will have it solely from the Houston/IAH hub to:

• Albuquerque (starts March 17)
• Birmingham (starts March 3)
• Dallas/Fort Worth (starts March 3)
• El Paso (starts March 4)
• Harlingen (starts March 17)
• Lafayette (starts March 26)
• Louisville (starts March 4)
• McAllen (starts March 3)
• Phoenix (starts March 3)
• Springfield, MO (starts March 26)
• Tulsa (starts March 26)
• Wichita (starts March 26)

There is also on-and-off service to Little Rock and Oklahoma City. These are all the kind of markets you’d expect to see as a good starting point to the rollout. They’re relatively close markets to Houston that have decent demand with multiple frequencies to protect in case of… shall we say, irregular operations. The only outliers are those that are there for a different reason: Dallas/Fort Worth and Phoenix.

Remember, Mesa has been operating exclusively from the DFW and Phoenix hubs for American for several years, and it has said it will keep all existing bases. It really had no choice since forcing base closures could risk more employees leaving the airline. It absolutely can’t afford that.

Mesa will end up having bases in Denver and Houston, but in the beginning, it will have to rely on shuttling crews back and forth. That’s why the DFW and Phoenix flights exist. They will each have between 1 and 3 daily flights varying by day in that first month. Those flights are able to be sold but they really exist as crew transports and are incremental flying over the existing schedule, for the most part.

Once Mesa stops flying for American on April 3, it’ll be just a couple more days until the next ramp up. On April 7, United adds Mesa from Houston to Baton Rouge, Corpus Christi, Memphis, Midland, Oklahoma City, St Louis, and San Antonio. That holds until May 5 when United moves Mesa into its second hub in Denver.

On May 5, service starts from Denver to Casper, Dallas/Fort Worth, Grand Junction, Little Rock, Springfield (MO), Tulsa, and Wichita. If this list looks familiar, it’s because a lot of these markets are the ones that Mesa will initially fly from Houston. I’m assuming this makes it easier for Mesa to route airplanes and crews in the early days.

It’s not until Denver – Phoenix starts on June 2 that we see more growth in Denver. That day sees flying also begin to Bozeman, El Paso, and Oklahoma City. And that’s about the extent of what we know now.

At this point, United only has filed Mesa CRJ-900 flying through June 22. Presumably we will see the rest of the schedule filled out soon enough, but this is at least a start.

In the long run, I’d imagine Mesa will do what it can to hire people into new Denver and Houston bases, so it can ramp down flying to Dallas/Fort Worth and Phoenix and use those airplanes for better flying that is more suited to them.

This is not a simple transition for Mesa, but it looks to at least be well-planned. Let’s see if the airline can pull it off without significant disruption.

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The Cranky Weekly Review is taking a break this week since we’ve been so busy with the awards that we’ve barely had time to keep up on the news. It’ll be back as normal next Friday.

Thank you to everyone who joined in last night and watched the Cranky Network Awards presented by Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport live! I’m just going to assume it went great, the audio was perfect, and you loved absolutely every joke. I have no choice but to assume that, because I wrote this post before the event, and there’s no way I’m going to be functioning enough to change this before it goes live… if it didn’t go quite as planned.

If for some reason you missed it — and I have no idea what terrible excuse you may have made up to justify that transgression — you can always watch it right here. But for those who hate jokes and fun and just want the details, well, here are the winners…

• American for Miami to Tortola/Beef Island (Sexiest New Route – Short-Haul)
• Hawaiian for Honolulu to Raratonga (Sexiest New Route – Long-Haul)
• Sun Country for Refocusing on MSP (Calculated Risk Award presented by Embraer)
• Qantas for Dallas/Fort Worth – Melbourne (Kingsford Smith Southern Cross Award presented by Oakland International Airport)
• Breeze for Los Angeles – Westchester County (Best Aircraft-Enabled Opportunity)
• Frontier for Getting JetBlue and Spirit Together (Matchmaker Award)
• United with Emirates (Most Promising New Partnership presented by Pittsburgh International Airport)
• Anthony Gilmer at Louisville Regional Airport Authority (Best Airport Partner)
• United for UA 769 for the last 3 digits in the 2nd row of the Sagrada Familia’s Magic Square (Most Clever Flight Number)
• Delta (Regional Apocalypse Survivor Award presented by Landline)
• Spirit for Los Angeles – Newark (Route Victory Award)
• Alaska for Seattle – Midcontinent Flying (Network Victory Award presented by Boeing)
• Frontier for Growth into Larger Markets (Most Improved Network presented by Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport)

We also handed out eight technical awards with Cirium using their data to identify some pretty cool metrics, if I do say so myself.

• Frequency Growth Chamption: JetBlue for biggest growth in domestic frequency per market at +34.6 percent
• New Load Factor Champion: Allegiant for Akron-Canton to Sarasota at 93.1 percent
• New Traffic Champion: United Newark – San Francisco + 370,878 passengers in 2022 vs 2021
• Gate Utilization Champion: American at Austin Gate 23 with 10.9 turns per day
• Aircraft Air Time Champion: Delta A350 N515DN with 14.76 hours per day
• Aircraft Air Time Champion (Regional): American/Envoy Embraer 175 N260NN with 7.94 hours per day
• Aircraft Cycle Champion (Mainland): Southwest 737-700 N940WN with 5.86 cycles per day
• Aircraft Cycle Champion: Southern/Mokulele N2150 with 8.6 cycles per day

If you’d like to hear the backstories on these, you’ll need to watch the event where we trot out numbers and explain in greater detail. Dave and I will also be putting a podcast out where we talk more about the winners.

Thanks to everyone for watching. And now, you can mark your calendars for February 22, 2024 when we will come to you live from Berkeley, California thanks to next year’s presenting sponsor, Oakland International Airport!

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Remember to watch the Cranky Network Awards TONIGHT at 7:30pm MT. Streaming live at this link.

Since Breeze began, it has focused its aircraft on primarily flying routes that have no or very limited competition. Last week, the airline rolled out more than 20 new routes, some of which have pretty heavy competition. This would appear to be a change of direction for the airline, and I wanted to look at it in more detail.

This week’s announcement was wide-ranging, including a new airport addition to the network in Portland (Maine), a variety of short-haul flights, and a trio of long-haul flights which were what raised the red flag for me.

Though Breeze started off with short-haul flying on its Embraer 190/195s, it was originally envisioned for A220 flying. The low-capacity, super-efficient, long-range airplane was supposed to open up a variety of routes that just wouldn’t work on other airlines with other aircraft. Since first launching long-haul in Charleston – San Francisco during May of 2022, it has now tried 30 routes of more than 1,500 miles.

Breeze Routes > 1,500 milesMaps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
Green routes have competition, Yellow routes do not and are still flying, Red routes are discontinuedOf the 30 routes of 1,500 miles or more that Breeze has tried, 25 are still flying (or will be when they start in May). Charleston has done the worst, losing Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and that early San Francisco route. But that’s not really the point. What is the point is looking at the competitive dynamics in the routes the airline has tried.

Of those 30 routes, a whopping four have competition today, though one of those has already been abandoned by Breeze. Another three have had competition in the past but are now gone. The competition details are:

• Las Vegas – Hartford has 1x daily on Frontier (had JetBlue until April 2022)
• Las Vegas – Richmond had JetBlue service until Oct 2021
• Los Angeles – Charleston has up to 1x daily on JetBlue, Breeze left this market last month
• Los Angeles – Jacksonville had sub-daily service on JetBlue until last month
• Los Angeles – New Orleans has up to 3x daily on Delta along with 1x daily on both Southwest and Spirit
• Los Angeles – Raleigh-Durham has up to 2x daily on Delta and 1x daily on American, JetBlue left in April 22
• Los Angeles – Richmond had JetBlue until October 2021

Two of these routes really stand out to me… that’s LA to both New Orleans and Raleigh-Durham. These are large routes with multiple daily flights on multiple airlines. This is not the kind of route that I’d expect to see from Breeze.

The beauty of the A220 is that it can serve longer, thinner routes with great efficiency. This gives Breeze the ability to go into markets that don’t work on most other airlines because they don’t have the smaller airplanes with such capabilities. But neither of these are thin routes.

To RDU, American is flying a 172-seat 737-800 on most days while Delta runs a 180-seat 737-900. In New Orleans, Delta has 160 seat 737-800s, but remember, that’s up to 3 times daily. Spirit uses 182-seat A320/A320neos, and Southwest has a mix of 143-seat 737-700s and 175-seat 737-800/MAX 8s.

Meanwhile, Breeze will just operate 137-seat A220s on this route. At least Breeze has opted for a more dense configuration with only 12 “Nicest” First Class seats or this would look even crazier. But it’s hard to see how that is going to compete with, say, a Spirit A320 on costs.

Perhaps Breeze just thinks fares have gotten too high in these markets and there is an opportunity to bring them down. Or maybe it’s just an operational decision. New Orleans was one of the airline’s first bases while RDU only joined the network this month, but it already has growth plans to have 8 destinations by summer.

This is not utilization flying on an overnight or anything like that. In each case, the flights leave in the morning for LAX, turn around at mid-day, and then get back in the evening. It’s a full day of flying for the airplanes.

It sounds to me like the “long, thin” plan isn’t working as Breeze had hoped. Yes, load factors for longer-haul flights have been better than short-haul ones.

Load Factor Data via CiriumBut other than during peak summer, they still haven’t been anything to write home about. Breeze has continued to have trouble finding enough pilots to fully fly its A220 fleet, and these flights take a lot of pilot hours. So it’s telling that Breeze has prioritized these over other routes with less or no competition.

It’s possible Breeze thinks that the skim model is going to work out better. Go into bigger markets that have higher demand and hope you can get some scraps. That wasn’t supposed to be what the A220s were going to do, but maybe it’s the best that Breeze can do right now, at least on those long hauls. That’s not a strategy that works on the long run, so I can’t wait to see if this is a real pivot or if it’s just a temporary blip.

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, direct, or wherever you get your podcasts.Southwest COO Andrew Watterson went to Washington to get grilled by senators over the airline’s holiday failures. I’d definitely put that at the top of my list of “things I hope to never have to do in my life… ever.” But the head of Southwest’s pilots also testified and that created an opportunity for me and Dave to talk about it more.

I think we broadly know what happened, but can we ever trust Southwest again? What will it take to make people feel comfortable? Should the government step in? We tackle all these meaty topics and more on this week’s episode.

Email Dave here to tell him whether he should forgive Southwest or not

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Cranky Network Awards week has arrived, and we are getting excited to dole out the trophies for the best in airline network planning in the US and Canada. We will be streaming live this year from lovely Phoenix, Arizona with our presenting sponsor Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. As an added bonus, we have hired a company that actually knows how to make sure audio/video works, so, if they are to be believed, it should all be great this year.

What: 2023 Cranky Network Awards
When: Thursday, February 23 @ 6:30pm PT – 7:30pm MT – 9:30pm ET – 2:30am GMT – 11:30am JST
Where: Streaming at youtube.com/live/gAAVvcHfITU
Who: Anyone who wants to join the party but can’t join the 170 of us in Phoenix should tune in, no password required

We definitely learned a few things about a live broadcast compared to last year. There won’t be a gameshow break for dinner in the middle of the event, for example. We’re going to keep this thing going, so that you don’t get bored… and also so we can all get to the after-party.

Once again, the streaming link is youtube.com/live/gAAVvcHfITU. Mark it down now, and you can even click to notify about the stream if you go now. That way you won’t miss a thing.

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JetBlue Looks to go Dutch, Government Leaves it Feeling BlueJetBlue Airways is claiming the Dutch government is in violation of the open-skies agreement between the United States and the EU after rejecting JetBlue’s multiple requests to begin serving Amsterdam’s Schiphol.

The open-skies agreement allows carriers to operate an unlimited number of flights between the United States and EU provided the carrier can scoop up the required slots. JetBlue says it made at least three applications for open slots at AMS and has been denied on each occasion.

JetBlue requested slots that have since been abandoned by both Aeroflot and Flybe, with the airport hiding behind the Dutch government policy of ~~hating all things blue~~ reducing noise and carbon emissions at the airport as the reason for the denials. Other sources say its JetBlue’s recent purchase of Spirit, and the stink of Spirit’s fees that have scared off the EU.

The challenge by JetBlue is not likely to yield a quick resolution. The DOT will first evaluate the complaint at whatever speed it damn well pleases before deciding whether or not to support the carrier in its challenge. At that point, the airline will be at the mercy of not just the American federal government but the EU bureaucracy as well.

In other JetBlue news, the carrier announced plans to add 250 daily flights from Fort Lauderdale when (if) its purchase of Spirit is approved including the headline grabbing addition of what it calls long-awaited service between FLL and Tallahassee. The carrier also says it’ll begin service to Europe from FLL, filling a key void for Europeans who want the south Florida experience without the hair gel and cologne that Miami has to offer.

Breeze Blows into New MarketsBreeze Airways is adding more than 20 new nonstop routes, including new service to Portland (ME) from four cities, at least two of which thought they were gaining flights to Oregon.

Portland flights begin May 17 with service to Charleston and Tampa, while Norfolk and Pittsburgh will follow on June 2. Los Angeles gets three new breezy destinations: Raleigh-Durham, Jacksonville, and New Orleans, while RDU also adds Louisville and Pittsburgh.

RDU’s three new cities give it eight destinations to blow into on Breeze, with the carrier’s other new routes being:

• Cincinnati: Richmond
• Hartford: Fort Myers, New Orleans, Tampa
• Pittsburgh: Orlando
• Providence: Fort Myers, Orlando, Sarasota, Tampa
• New York/Islip: Richmond, Pittsburgh
• Norfolk: Akron-Canton, Syracuse

Portland — Portland, ME that is — becomes the 35th destination for Breeze. It generally sticks to underserved routes with little or no competition (typically because no one actually wants to go there), but this round of expansion includes several flights on which it will challenge incumbents, including RDU-LAX, BDL-TPA, and PVD-MCO.

Air India Buys Some AirplanesAir India announced orders for 470 airplanes this week, ordering 250 jets from Airbus, 220 from Boeing, and an option to purchase 12 more L-1011’s from Lockheed Martin if anyone ever locates that time machine.

The order of 220 from Boeing consists of 190 B737 MAX, 20 Dreamliners, and 10 B777X, Boeing’s most recent version of the 777 which is currently still undergoing certification. The order is the third largest in the history of Boeing, but was still dwarfed by the 250 planes AI ordered from Airbus.

The Airbus breakdown is 140 A320neo and 70 A321neo for a total of 210 narrowbodies, with 34 A350-1000 and six A350-900s.

The rack rate for both orders would be about $34 billion for the Boeing portion and over $40 billion for Airbus. Airlines receive significant discounts from the list price, and the larger the order, the larger the discount, which is why so many carriers look to purchase new airplanes at Costco. The first plane from the order is expected be delivered late this year with the bulk of deliveries to begin in 2025 and end when Air India goes bankrupt.

You Think Your Week is Bad, Ask Lufthansa

This was a week Lufthansa would like to forget, and forget quickly. On Wednesday, a construction mishap outside of its Frankfurt hub forced the carrier to slow its operation to a crawl for most of the day causing delays and cancellations throughout the system, and that was just the start.

Construction work by Germany train company Deutsche Bahn damaged the fiber optic cables of a telecom provider that fed Lufthansa its data at the airport. The mishap forced all LH group carriers to process all flights manually, slowing down its trademark German efficiency.

Thursday saw the a fire close Lufthansa’s Terminal 1 at New York/JFK with a reopening date unknown at this time. The good news there is Lufthansa probably wasn’t going to use the terminal Friday anyway, because…

On Friday, ground workers at seven of the country’s largest airports are staging a 24-hour strike to force a speed up in collective bargaining efforts that have reached a stalemate. The operator of Frankfurt’s airport urged travelers to avoid the airport that day, perhaps unaware that travelers don’t show up at an airport on random days, but do so based on what it says on their ticket.

Munich, the second-largest airport in the country expects to ground all commercial flights for the day, only operating charter flights for the 59th Munich Security Conference which begins this weekend.

To Be or Used to Be, Flybe Used to Be (And Aeromar Too)It was a bad week for airlines teetering on the edge as both Flybe and Aeromar threw in the towel and called it a day, ending operations after both ran out of cash.

Flybe, the Exeter-based regional carrier in the UK announced Wednesday that it would not be making a comeback after filing for bankruptcy last month. Interfaith Advisory, the insolvency practitioner for the carrier (that’s British for bankruptcy administrator) ended talks with carriers that might have rescued the airline, including Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to instead focus on coming up with a new name for their company.

Flybe’s 45 remaining employees were informed Wednesday but knew the writing was on the wall Tuesday when the only tea available in the break room was the powdered stuff that Linda left in the back of the cupboard way back in 2018.

Not to be outdone, Mexican carrier Aeromar jumped into the mar of insolvency on Wednesday as the carrier announced the “definitive end of operations,” after it failed to reach an agreement with investors and creditors. Passengers holding future tickets on the carrier should contact their credit card company for a refund and their financial advisor to explain why they booked a flight on an airline that clearly wasn’t going to be around in a week.

• Air France is bringing back amenity kits for kids. Finally.
• Air Serbia is beginning service between Belgrade and Lisbon on April 15.
• Air Transat is wet-leasing two B737MAX from Smartlynx Airlines Malta.
• ANA is dreaming about the Dreamliner.
• Azul is considering restructuring. As always, it is also considering not restructuring.
• Cathay Pacific flew a million people in January. Some of which wanted to be there.
• Copa is adding Austin to its route map, marking its 15th city in the United States and 80th overall when service begins July 6.
• Delta is planning to grow its international presence in Seattle. Also it might not.
• El Al will begin service between Tel Aviv and Tokyo/Narita on March 2. The 2x weekly flights will make the first nonstop flights between Israel and Japan. It’s also ready to connect Tel Aviv and Fort Lauderdale with six flights this fall. Sometimes the jokes write themselves.
• Ethiopian added two new cargo destinations in China.
• Finnair impressively eeked out a profit.
• Fly Gangwon is for sale.
• flyDubai will dd 29 B737 MAX 8 aircraft to its fleet over the next four years.
• GlobalX secured a long-term agreement to operate charters for Cuba.
• Greater Bay Airlines is close to acquiring 15 B737-9s.
• Loganair has its eye on flybe’s London/Heathrow slots.
• Lufthansa is finding that it isn’t easy feeling green.
• MIAT has chosen San Francisco as its first U.S. destination. It won’t begin service until the country receives Level 1 certification from the FAA.
• Norse Atlantic announced it would serve both Fort Lauderdale and Orlando from London/Gatwick from late May.
• Porter is now serving every province in Atlantic Canada as it begins seasonal, daily service between Ottawa and Charlottetown on May 17.
• Qantas is reopening its lounge in Hong Kong despite closing it permanently in 2021.
• Rex signed an LOI for 2 B737-800 aircraft.
• Southwest says it has reimbursed 96% of requests from its late December operational meltdown. What it didn’t tell you was that most of the payments were made not in cash, but in the cash equivalent of its salty death mix.
• Spirit announced three new cities from San Jose (CA): Dallas/Fort Worth, Las Vegas, San Diego. It also told Frontier where it could stick its Puerto Rican expansion, adding new service from San Juan to Atlanta, Chicago/O’Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth, Detroit, and Hartford. Hartford service begins June 7, with the other four beginning on May 5.
• Surinam Airways might beginning flying to the UK and Germany. Also it might not.
• Uganda Airlines wants some new airplanes. If you’re interested in selling new planes to the carrier, now’s your time to shine.
• Virgin Atlantic is ending service to Pakistan this summer.,
• Wizz Air will need to return subsidies it was paid between 2007 and 2010 by Timisoara Airport (TSR) in western Romania after the approval of the payments was overturned by the General Court of the European Union.

My Visa declined at the sweater store. It was pretty awkward when the cashier then had to ask for my cardigan.

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The writing had been on the wall for years now, but only last week did Mitsubishi make it official. It is done trying to build its own regional jet — a category I consider to be aircraft with less than 100 seats in a single-class configuration. That leaves only Embraer trying to win orders… and using an older technology aircraft for the category’s primary market in the US.

Since the dawn of the regional jet, there have been two main players. The Canadair Regional Jet (later Bombardier, and later yet again Mitsubishi) rolled out in the early 1990s and the Embraer ERJ-145 followed in the mid-1990s. Together, those manufacturers all but put turboprops out of business in the US. (I’m choosing to ignore the Antonov AN-148, Sukhoi Superjet 100, and COMAC ARJ21 since they will never get much traction beyond Russia and China.)

They soon expanded their offerings to grow further upmarket into the 70-76 seat category. Bombardier had the CRJ-700, CRJ-900, and even the larger CRJ-1000 which technically holds more than 100 in a single class. It eventually moved on to make the bigger C-Series which was sold to Airbus and is now the A220, but those aren’t regional jets.

On the Embraer side, the growth was into the Embraer 170 and Embraer 175 with stretches into the Embraer 190 and Embraer 195, both of which also hold more than 100 in a single-class layout. Those all widely serve today, though Embraer has moved on to its E2 product line which is an updated and upgraded version of all of those planes (except the Embraer 170 which did not get an update). In theory the E175-E2 can be considered a new generation regional jet, but there is a problem that prevents that from serving the all-important US regional market.

The US market is different than any other in that there are size and weight restrictions thanks to pilot scope clauses. To operate for a regional carrier under a mainline brand, the airplanes can have no more than 76 seats and can’t have a maxium takeoff weight of more than 86,000 lbs. That means that the market for the CRJ-700/900 and the Embraer 170/175 is mostly for US airlines. The Embraer 175-E2 weighs too much, so it loses out.

Of course, the mainline airlines could operate these airplanes if they wanted, but it would be higher cost and there are few examples to date of any of these aircraft being flown by US mainline operators. Those examples that do exist (eg the old US Airways Embraer 190) were on airplanes too big for mainline pilot scope clauses anyway.

The US regional market dwarfs the rest of the world. Here’s how many of those airplanes are in service or on order today for US carriers vs non-US carriers.

US-Compliant Regional Aircraft In Service and On OrderData via CiriumThe airplanes that didn’t fit under the cap included the larger and barely-ordered CRJ-1000 along with the E175-E2 and the E190-E2. Without the US market, these airplanes have struggled mightily. Between the three of them, there are a total of 53 either in service or on order. It’s a rounding error. (The E195-E2 has done somewhat better with more than 200 ordered or in service, but that’s still small potatoes.)

With this backdrop, along came Mitsubishi. In 2007, Mitsubishi announced it would develop the MRJ regional jet to try to compete in this space. The idea was baffling. Mitsubishi would wisely not compete in the 50-seat market but rather focus on the 70-100 seat size range. In this range, the US was the biggest market by far, but Mitsubishi wouldn’t bother competing in that market, because its airplanes would weigh too much.

The company pushed ahead, securing orders for the MRJ from ANA and Japan Airlines (presumably due to external pressure and not actual desire). There were also orders from US carriers, but that required scope clauses to change for them to become firm, so they were never realistic.

Mitsubishi was serious about making this a reality, and it continued to develop the airplane, opening a great deal of work in the US and Canada as it marched toward certification. In 2019, it made a big splash by acquiring the nearly-wound down CRJ program from Bombardier. This gave the company a global support network that would aid in the adoption of the MRJ when it came to fruition.

At the same time, Mitsubishi renamed the MRJ as the SpaceJet. It dropped the smaller MRJ70 and renamed the MRJ90 into the M90. More importantly, it finally saw the importance of the US market and announced the M100 which would seat 76 passengers and comply with US scope clause rules. How it took so long for Mitsubishi to even acknowledge this enormous market is something I will never understand.

The pandemic brought a halt to all work on the program as Mitsubishi realized just how hard and expensive it would be to get this thing flying in commercial service. The program languished in purgatory until last week’s announcement that it was officially being euthanized.

Mitsubishi says it learned two lessons from this whole mess.

• Insufficient initial understanding of highly complex type certification process for commercial aircraft
• Insufficient resources to continue long-term development

You’d have hoped it could have figured this out long ago, before it sunk billions and billions of dollars into the program. But at least let this be a lesson to Boom and the countless number of eVTOL manufacturers out there. This is VERY hard to do.

Some of the reasons given for discontinuing the program are mind-numbingly stupid. For example, “Little progress on scope clause… relaxation resulted in M90’s not meeting North American RJ market needs.”

No kidding, huh? There was never any serious chance of the scope clause moving at any time during the program’s existence. It should have focused on a 76-seat option with lower weight from the start and it might have had a chance, especially as those older CRJ-900s reach 20 years of service and need replacement. But instead, it opted to focus on the part of the market with limited to no demand and dim prospects at best.

With Mitsubishi’s exit, the regional jet market is looking pretty barren, especially in the US. As long as those scope clauses are in place, this will be a very important market segment, but the only competitor now is the Embraer 175, an older technology airplane that has already been replaced by the too-heavy E175-E2.

When Mitsubishi stepped it up in 2019, I was hopeful. This was just about the easiest way possible to sneak into any aircraft market segment for a manufacturer. But Mitsubishi couldn’t hack it, and now the long-term future for the category remains entirely unclear.

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I’ve seen a handful of stories lately on the long-true fact that airlines sell schedules they don’t actually ever plan on flying. It was worse during the pandemic when schedules changed frequently… and up to a month or less before departure. Now we’ve settled back into a more traditional pattern which still leaves a lot of uncertainty for travelers. Today I’ll show you exactly what’s happening with one airline in particular, United, since it seems to change more frequently than most.

Your standard legacy airlines usually sell tickets on a rolling 331-day schedule. In other words, you can buy a ticket for 331 days from today and not beyond. Tomorrow, that window will be the same, but it just ends one day calendar later. That means that as of today, you can book flights up through early January 2024.

As an aside, low-cost airlines tend to operate differently and have set booking windows. Southwest is the largest of these. It was selling for travel through August 14, but this past weekend it extended its schedule through October 4. The schedules at these airlines tend to be more accurate since they go available for sale closer to departure. But let’s get back to the legacy airlines, and United in particular.

Below you’ll see a chart of United’s 2023 departures by day as filed this previous weekend. I’ve divided it into three separate categories.

Data via CiriumObviously, the first month on the chart is completely accurate (barring operational cancellations) since this is calendar year 2023. Those dates were already flown. But between now and the end of May, United’s schedule is largely accurate. You can see the bump up in March for spring break, and then it settles a bit. When I call this “accurate,” I mean it’s mostly correct. There will be some changes as we get closer, but for the most part, airlines try to get largely accurate schedules about 100 days in advance.

United, however, appears to have gone to a multi-tier model as we covered in Cranky Network Weekly this past week. Between June and Labor Day, United has introduced a modified placeholder schedule. This is different than the wildly-inaccurate schedule that’s posted post-Labor Day. It’s closer to being accurate, but it most definitely is not there. It will be whittled down week by week, some week with bigger changes than others, until it’s flyable.

In the summer schedule, you can see the different pattern to peak and off-peak day flying as compared to what’s scheduled earlier. It’s all part of the process that United seems to prefer, even though it results in multiple schedule changes for people who book further in advance.

This chart alone doesn’t show the depth of what changes, so we dug in deeper this week in CNW to show just how much different it is. I’ll bring some of the charts as created by Visual Approach into this post. Let’s start with a look at departures by narrowbody fleet type.

Data via Cirium, Chart via Visual ApproachHere’s where you can see some pretty big shifts. In the June schedule, 737-700/800/900 flying jumps up dramatically in the schedule, but there is not massive number of new deliveries. You can see the 737 MAX goes down a little. Some of these will change, but there will also be flights canceled as we get closer in.

But then you can see what’s going on in September where it’s completely divorced from reality. For some reason, United removes nearly all of its MAX flights and has a very high level of A319/A320 flying. In some cases this will just be fixed by switching aircraft types and nothing else, but with each aircraft type also comes different block times and seating configurations. Changes are very likely.

If we go down further, here’s a deeper look at the regional fleet, and it’s even crazier.

Data via Cirium, Chart via Visual ApproachThe wild swing in flying by different airlines is not real. In particular, we know that Air Wisconsin is leaving United and will be flying for American instead. You can see that flying start to leave the United schedule until June when it inexplicably jumps back up. Then it really jumps in September. Air Wisconsin will not be flying for United then, but United is selling flights that it says will be operated by them.

At the same time, you can see how Mesa flying jumps up until June when it settles back down. Mesa will be putting its CRJ-900s that fly for American now into service with United. At this point, none of the CRJ-900s are in the schedule, but United has instead just filed a lot more Embraer 175 flying on Mesa, presumably ready to move airplanes around when it knows more detail about the transition. (My bet is that the initial move will take Embraer 175s from Houston and send them to Dulles, then that will be backfilled by CRJ-900s in Houston.)

It may be hard to believe that these inaccurate schedules can exist. I asked United for comment, but did not hear back. My guess, however, is that from United’s perspective, it probably doesn’t think it can put forth a correct schedule much further out, but it wants something in the market. And it presumably also figures that it will be able to provide travelers with a close-enough option to what they booked once the schedule settles. But that’s an opinion United has and not a fact that everyone can agree upon.

The number of changes can be mind-numbing. For example, I’ve been keeping track of a roundtrip from Newark to Jackson Hole that was booked for a Cranky Concierge client last June for travel this month. The changes have been frequent (shown in bold and italics).

• Original Booking: United 321 Lv Newark 1130a Arr Jackson Hole 234p, United 2155 Lv Jackson Hole 330p Arr Newark 947p
• June 2022: United 321 Lv Newark 1130a Arr Jackson Hole 234p, United 1120 Lv Jackson Hole 330p Arr Newark 947p
• July 2022: United 278 Lv Newark 1130a Arr Jackson Hole 234p, United 1120 Lv Jackson Hole 330p Arr Newark 947p
• August 2022: United 278 Lv Newark 10a Arr Jackson Hole 104p, United 1120 Lv Jackson Hole 155p Arr Newark 812p
• August 2022 part 2: United 2092 Lv Newark 10a Arr Jackson Hole 104p, United 2267 Lv Jackson Hole 155p Arr Newark 812p
• September 2022: United 2092 Lv Newark 10a Arr Jackson Hole 104p, United 1552 Lv Jackson Hole 155p Arr Newark 812p
• October 2022: United 1056 Lv Newark 906a Arr Jackson Hole 1212p, United 1552 Lv Jackson Hole 113p Arr Newark 730p
• December 2022: United 301 Lv Newark 906a Arr Jackson Hole 1212p, United 1552 Lv Jackson Hole 113p Arr Newark 730p
• January 2022: United 301 Lv Newark 906a Arr Jackson Hole 1212p, United 1552 Lv Jackson Hole 112p Arr Newark 729p

Are we having fun yet? Most of these are insignificant flight number changes, but they are still remarkably annoying. I think every traveler takes a deep breath when they see a “Your Schedule has Changed” email roll in.

But buried in here are the significant schedule changes. The first one in August isn’t more than 2 hours so it wouldn’t be eligible for a refund if the traveler couldn’t make the schedule work. Let’s forget that 90 minutes seems pretty material to me. The October schedule change actually would be cumulatively over 2 hours, but by then, the traveler may have already adjusted plans knowing they had no other choice after the first one happened. At least this isn’t on American, since American requires an unreasonable 4 hour change before allowing a refund.

So what we have here is a mix of regular monthly schedule changes that make minor shifts along with larger changes that make bigger adjustments as they get the schedule closer and closer to reality.

For United, I’m sure this makes sense, but for customers it’s a pretty miserable way to be handled. At least now you’ll understand better how it works.

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Chile-based JetSMART has talked a good game for awhile now. It has wanted to grow throughout South America, and it has effectively promised as much to its US partner, American. It has used a mix of internal and external growth over the last few years, and now it is trying to turn external again with an offer for beleagured Viva Air in Colombia.

JetSMART started in Chile in 2017, and it grew quickly. It is backed by Indigo Partners, the Bill Franke-led group that’s behind Frontier, Wizz Air, and Lynx among others. At the end of 2019, the airline picked up the carcass of Norwegian Air Argentina, apparently thinking that going into Latin America’s most insane aviation market would be a good plan. By January 2020, this was the airline’s route map.

JetSMART Jan 2020 route map via CiriumFast forward to 2023 and you can see the airline has grown significantly.

JetSMART Jan 2023 route map via CiriumIn Argentina, it has moved its Buenos Aires operation from the secondary airport at El Palomar to the city’s two main airports, Aeroparque and Ezeiza. It has most recently started up a new Peruvian subsidiary which is slowly growing out of Lima. The airline lacks a significant Brazilian presence as well as one in Colombia, but it has the airplanes coming to rectify that.

As of now, JetSMART has 23 airplanes in service. Eight of those are A320s in Argentina with another 3 in Chile. The rest are A320neos or A321neos with potentially over 100 more on order, including some A321XLRs to really stretch those legs. (Side note: I say “potentially” because the order is with Indigo Partners and it can shift those airplanes around to its different companies if it wants.) These airplanes are coming very fast, with 18 expected this year alone.

Colombia, however, is a crowded market. Of course there’s the big boy Avianca which has turned itself into a low-cost carrier after a trip through the bankruptcy spa. And there’s LATAM which is everywhere in Latin America. But there are also several little guys with different hopes and dreams.

Seats Departing Colombia for Latin American CitiesData via CiriumJetSMART doesn’t even register on this chart, because it’s so tiny today. It has 1x daily from Cali that alternates between Antofagasta and Santiago in Chile. There’s also been flying to Santiago from both Bogotá and Medellín, but that isn’t in the schedule past March as of now. But with Viva’s capacity, JetSMART could all of a sudden be a player. Of course, if Viva can’t make a go of it on its own, could JetSMART do better?

JetSMART does have deeper pockets and it has a bigger vision. There’s a reason it linked up with American to provide feed to that airline’s long-haul network. It sees opportunity to become a continent-wide low-cost operator that can be a credible alternative to LATAM and Avianca. In fact, it already said it intended to open a Colombia operation back in November, so this would just be an opportunity to take out a large competitor and move in quickly.

On paper it looks good. Viva is about the same size as JetSMART with 24 airplanes in the fleet, most in Colombia but a couple in Peru. It has an all-A320 and A320neo fleet, so it would fit right in… though Viva went with CFM for its engines and JetSMART went with Pratt & Whitney so it’s not a perfect fit. That part looks ok, but then there are the financial issues.

Viva is in bad shape and has said it needs a savior to keep the airline alive. It just filed for bankruptcy protection to keep it alive until someone can buy it. That’s never a great sign, but it does mean that there’s really only one question to answer… at what price does it make sense for JetSMART? Because there’s always a price where it makes sense.

Viva has already agreed to be acquired by Avianca. True, Colombia’s competition regulator shot the merger down, but they’ve already gone back with remedies to try and get it pushed through. That review is ongoing, and it clearly doesn’t seem to faze JetSmart.

From a JetSMART perspective, I imagine it thinks it could go in there, take over Viva, leave the airplanes that are profitable in Colombia, and take the rest out into another place that could better use the capacity. If the acquisition price is right, this would be a really solid way to get into the country that it wants to enter anyway. In a sense, this is like what it did in Argentina, picking at the carcass of a nearly-gone airline.

Avianca won’t like this one bit, but it isn’t clear if it can get its merger pushed through anyway. Before this announcement, it might have been a Sophie’s choice for the government… either allow the Viva merger with Avianca or let Viva die. Now, however, there is an opportunity to keep Viva alive under the guise of another low cost operator. Sure, it’s not a Colombian airline so pride might get in the way, but it at least gives the regulators an option that didn’t exist before. And that’s probably not great news for Avianca.

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FedEx, Southwest Near-Miss Under InvestigationBoth the FAA and NTSB are investigating a near-calamitous incident in Austin last Saturday when a FedEx B767 and Southwest B737-700 came within 100 feet vertically of each other. The incident occurred when the FedEx aircraft aborted its landing on the same runway from which the Southwest aircraft was cleared to depart

NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy said it appears that the FedEx plane flew over the Southwest 737 during its takeoff role, only to have the 737 speed past the FedEx 767 as its speed increased during the takeoff roll.

The Southwest aircraft was granted takeoff clearance when the B767 was 3.32 nautical miles from the end of the runway, and the FedEx pilot received clearance to land when it was 2.19 miles away. Southwest’s Cancun-bound plane took off safely with its 123 passengers and five crew none-the-wiser as the FedEx pilots expertly pulled up to avoid a catastrophe despite the poor visibility.

Southwest Adds Five, Brings Back 16Southwest Airlines’s latest schedule extension includes five new routes and the return of 16 routes which had previously been cut.

Long Beach was the victor in the schedule extension after awarding five new daily slots to Southwest. Three new cities will be served 1x daily from LGB, some that people might actually want to visit: Colorado Springs and El Paso (beginning June 11) plus Albuquerque (beginning September 5). Additionally, the seasonal daily flight to Maui will return and the daily flight to Dallas/Love will double to 2x daily.

The other two new routes in this go-’round start operating on September 9, when it begins Saturday-only nonstop service between Austin and Jacksonville and El Paso to Orlando.

Of the 16 returning flights, many were pandemic-era cuts. They all return this fall between September 7 and September 10. The resumptions are:

• Austin: Pittsburgh
• Baltimore: Oakland
• Denver: Richmond
• Houston/Hobby: Charlotte, Lubbock, Ontario, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham
• Houston/IAH: Phoenix
• Las Vegas: Little Rock, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Portland (OR)
• Los Angeles: Portland (OR)
• Long Beach: New Orleans
• Nashville: New York/Islip, Omaha

If your preferred flight was not brought back, your options are to fly Southwest and connect, fly another airline and connect, or send a big bag of money to 2702 Love Field Drive, Dallas, TX 75235, c/o Network Planning.

Spirit Releases Spirited 2022 Earnings ReportSpirit Airlines, the fee-loving airline which found itself the apple of both Frontier and JetBlue’s eye in 2022 announced its Q4 and full-year 2022 earnings this week, and the carrier with yellow planes had a lot of red on its balance sheet. Spirit posted a $600 million loss for the full-year on $5 billion in gross revenue. Of the $5 billion, $2.45 billion was described as coming from airline fares and $2.53 billion coming from “non-fare.” We’ll leave it to you to guess what non-fare income Spirit might be pulling in.

Spirit also promoted five people on its executive team after each won the airline’s fee submission contest where employees are encouraged to propose new, out-of-the-box fees and the winning selections are given a promotion and a raise. Scott Haralson was promoted to EVP & CFO – it’s his job to count the cash made from fees at the end of each day. Other Spirited promotions include Allen Messick to VP, Supply Chain Operations and Technical Operations, Kirk Thornburg to VP, Fleet and Power Plant, and David Klein to Vice President, Talent.

Spirit ended 2022 with $1.8 billion in cash, most of which was found lying around its offices in green envelopes with a Denver postmark.

DOJ Gears Up to Battle JetBlue/Spirit Merger

The Department of Justice Antitrust Division is preparing to battle JetBlue and Spirit over their potential $3.8 billion merger which the two carriers agreed upon last fall. Should the agreement past muster, it would create the fifth largest airline in the United States and a color pallete of yellows and blues as far as the eye can see.

In addition to the government, an antitrust lawsuit trying to block the merger is currently before the US District Court in the Northern District of California from 25 customers of the two airlines and travel agents. This suit is seeking a jury trial to prevent the merger claiming it a violation of Section 7 of the Clayton Antitrust Act, passed by Congress in 1914. The trial is on hold while lawyers on both sides attempt to dig up the Clayton Act and confirm it’s actually a real thing.

The DOJ’s suit against the Northeast Alliance between JetBlue and AA is awaiting a ruling from the judge following the end of the trial in September. Ironically enough, a loss by JetBlue and AA would make this merger more likely to pass scrutiny, putting JetBlue in the awkward position of potentially having to choose which partnership it prefers over the other.

United Not Fine After Receiving Million Dollar FineUnited Airlines received notice that the FAA is proposing to slap the carrier with a $1.1 million fine for allegedly neglecting to perform fire system safety checks on its fleet of B777s.

The government claims that in 2018, UA removed a fire system warning check from its preflight checklist, leading to over 100,000 flights in three years operating without the safeguard. UA said in a statement that the safety of its flights were never in question and that it only suggested cutting out the check so that crew and staff could avoid a far greater hazard — spending more time in Newark.

UA says it changed its preflight checklist “to account for redundant built-in checks performed automatically by the 777” and that its decision was approved by the FAA. The carrier has 30 days to respond to the FAA.

• Air India scored a cool $2.2 billion in short-term funding.
• airBaltic is beginning 2x weekly service in May from Tampere, Finland to both Nice and Milan.
• Avelo will base a second B737-800 in Raleigh-Durham this summer. It’s also reducing RDU to Fort Myers, Sarasota, and West Palm Beach from 3x to 2x weekly.
• British Airways is back in the game in South Africa, signing a codeshare partnership with Airlink. This is BA’s first partner in South Africa since its previous beau Comair passed away.
• Delta is giving 5% raises to flight attendants and ground staff. Staff can accept the raise in cash, Sky Club vouchers they aren’t allowed to use anymore, or truckloads of Biscoff.
• Flybe isn’t dead quite yet.
• Global X received FAA permission to begin charter ops.
• IndiGo is flying high.
• ITA abandoned its London/Heathrow slots leased from Etihad reportedly because the airline’s senior leadership forgot about them.
• Jazeera Airways finished the year with a $65 million profit.
• JetSMART still plans to live a little and acquire Viva Air.
• KLM is adding new service to Hong Kong and China.
• La Compagnie will double its A321neo fleet by 2025. Or maybe it won’t.
• LATAM announced three new routes beginning in April: Bogota – Guayaquil, Santiago de Chile – Porto Alegre, and Lima – Brasilia.
• Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr received a five-year contract extension. The carrier would not confirm or deny if the extension is contingent on Spohr developing another three sub-brands for Lufthansa to operate during the term.
• MIAT is coming to America (maybe). What’s not known at this point is if the carrier loves LA, or if it’s going to San Francisco.
• Mesa reported a $9.1 million loss in its fiscal Q1 and that’s before accounting for money it keeps under the table.
• Norse Atlantic is finally diversifying its senior leadership team beyond people named Bjorn, as it named Charles Duncan its new president.
• Norwegian is adding six B737 MAX 8 aircraft to its fleet.
• Qantas is considering taking another shot at nonstop service between Brisbane and Chicago/O’Hare. The route was scheduled to launch in April 2020 before becoming a casualty of the pandemic.
• Ryanair canceled flights in and out of France due to a strike by French ATC.
• Southwest COO Andrew Watterson confirmed to Congress on Thursday that the carrier’s performance during Christmas was sub-optimal.
• SWISS believes March 3 is precisely the right time to resume 1x weekly service between Zurich and Shanghai, upgrading to 3x weekly in April.
• United has no qualms about kicking someone while they’re down, as the carrier will take a shot at Southwest in an ad running during Sunday’s Super Bowl in the Denver market.
• Vistara is beginning service between Mumbai and Mauritius on March 26.
• WestJet pilots say their contract negotiations with the carrier have reached a very polite and courteous impasse.

Officer: “Sir, I have some terrible news. It appears your wife was hit by a bus.”

Husband: “I know officer, but I can assure you she has a great personality.”

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There’s been a whole lot of talk around January’s operational performance. Heck, United even decided to put out a Super Bowl ad digging at Southwest about it in Denver. I decided to cuddle up with Anuvu’s operational data to pick it apart and see who really did well in January and who did not. It’s quite a mixed bag.

To start, I put a high-level chart together that’s full of confusing lines and colors for each marketing airline (meaning, regionals are included). Enjoy.

January 2023 Operational Performance by Marketing AirlineData via AnuvuThere is a lot going on here, so let’s start by noting some of the big picture stories.

• Frontier had a very bad January, finishing dead last in on-time performance by a lot, and pulling up at next to last in completion factor
• Delta did generally well, as it usually does, but it wasn’t even up to Delta’s usual standards
• American’s focus on D0 continues with it pushing a higher percent of planes on time than anyone else
• JetBlue canceled the lowest percentage of flights. Good on you, JetBlue
• Southwest canceled the highest percentage of flights, but its on-time performance was near the top (not D0, which Southwest always lags in, but A14)
• For an airline that created a Super Bowl ad, United is pretty middle of the pack
• It was clearly a rough month for everyone with nobody getting above 80 percent on time

That’s all well and good, but that’s the easy story. There are a whole lot of subplots going on this month, and that’s where I was hoping to focus to find some fascinating kernel of information.

Let’s start with the highest profile event of the month, the FAA’s NOTAM system failure which snarled traffic on January 11. Here’s how the airlines did on completion factor on the day of the event as well as one day prior and one after.

Completion Factor by Marketing Airline During FAA NOTAM OutageData via AnuvuAnyone else see an upside down widget here? Anyway, what really stands out most here is that Southwest and American canceled a whole lot more than anyone else that day. They both recovered very quickly, but that day was a rough one.

Even if a flight wasn’t canceled, forget flying on time on the 11th. This hit the East Coast hardest since it was really early in the morning on the West Coast, so Hawaiian’s 77.9 percent followed by Alaska’s 69.1 percent arrivals within 14 minutes sound ok. But then it falls off a cliff. Allegiant hit 55.9 percent with JetBlue right behind at 54.8 percent. Southwest was worst at 20.2 percent.

For the month overall, cancellation numbers really weren’t all that bad. When the worst is 97.2 percent (Southwest), you’re doing ok compared to some of the December horrors. So I decided to look deeper into arrivals within 14 minutes. I started by pulling the big four and putting them into a daily chart.

January 2023 Arrivals Within 14 Minutes by Marketing AirlineData via AnuvuI stretched out the scale here to make it easier to see differences. On January 11, they all plunged below 50 percent as we just discussed above. The general arc of the month here shows a rough end to the holiday period followed by some nice calm. But then it just got choppy. Toward the end of the month, we see a mix of trouble at the various hubs that hit different airlines differently.

January 22 was awful for Delta. Why? Look at all that rain around Atlanta. There were thunderstorms all night long into the early morning.

Map via NOAAAnd what about United on January 25? Houston is the problem child that stormy day with… more than 4 inches of rain?!

And that’s really what drove the performance here. Different hubs got hit harder at different times due to bad weather. There were no meltdowns, just responses to bad weather. Let’s take a look at that a little more.

Denver was in the news a lot, so let’s look there first.

January 2023 Denver Departing Flights — Arrivals Within 14 Minutes by Marketing AirlineData via AnuvuAll the hub airlines in Denver had a miserable month. You can argue that Southwest was worse than the rest during some of the events, but it was generally better than the rest during good times. There’s no clear winner here. Everybody was a loser in Denver.

Or how about a look at Chicago?

January 2023 Chicago O’Hare and Midway Departing Flights — Arrivals Within 14 Minutes by Marketing AirlineData via AnuvuSouthwest certainly started off worse but then it jumped ahead. American definitely had a bigger down than others later in the month. Something clearly went a little more wrong there. Looking at the regional carriers vs mainline, I don’t see any notable differences, so it was some systemic issue.

Dallas shows a similar story. Southwest had a good run above American in the early part of the month but then American caught up. And who can guess when the ice storm was? Yup, that’s an easy one.

January 2023 Dallas Fort Worth and Love Field Departing Flights — Arrivals Within 14 Minutes by Marketing AirlineData via AnuvuIn the end, it was just a bad month all around. Some airlines were less bad than others, but nobody ran a particularly good operation. It looks like nearly everything was just the result of poor weather. Such is life.

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Last week, Alaska announced three new routes from San Diego. It may not be a large add, but it does highlight just how much Alaska has changed in California since the pandemic has begun. San Diego has become one of the airline’s most important airports while other cities in the Golden State have fallen off.

Prior to the Virgin America merger, Los Angeles was far and away the most important city in California for Alaska. The airline had around 150,000 monthly seats in the market, all going from Anchorage in the north to México in the south, the only exception being the lone daily flight to Washington/National it had won in the beyond-perimeter sweepstakes. It barely served intra-California markets.

Alaska Departing Seats From Top Four California AirportsData via CiriumAs the chart above shows, however, San Diego started to really separate itself into a clear second place from about 2013. Between Jun 2012 and the end of 2013, Alaska launched flights from San Diego to Boise, Boston, Fresno, Līhuʻe, Mammoth Lakes, Monterey, Orlando, and Santa Rosa. This was everything Los Angeles was not, allowing Alaska to expand its footprint into markets not anchored by its Pacific Northwest stronghold.

These new routes brought Alaska firmly into the intra-California market from San Diego, while also going all the way to the East Coast. More transcons would follow.

The Virgin America merger changed Alaska’s situation in California, as the airline had planned it would. That airline had major operations in both San Francisco and Los Angeles. When we look at the combined airline up until the pandemic, the story was a different one.

Alaska + Virgin America Departing Seats From Key California AirportsData via CiriumWith Virgin America, San Francisco vaulted toward the top of the heap, and Alaska focused there more after the merger. Los Angeles remained as important, but you could see both San Diego and San Jose creeping up.

Then came the pandemic, and that turned everything on its head. I’ll keep that chart above, but then add on the post-pandemic world.

Alaska + Virgin America Departing Seats From Key California AirportsData via CiriumThis looks like a very different airline. San Francisco was the slowest to recover after the pandemic, but it has been making up for lost time in the last year. It overtook Los Angeles as largest airport in California for Alaska in Jan 2022 and it has not looked back. In the May schedule, SFO is 23 percent larger than LAX.

Meanwhile, LAX has flattened at a level far lower than where it was pre-pandemic. There are definitely some gate constraint issues there as the Terminal 6 renovation proceeds and multiple gates remain off limits, but it’s more than that. I spoke with Brett Catlin, VP of Network and Alliances for Alaska, and he explained that with the costs to operate at LAX predicted to climb much higher in the coming years, Alaska has to think twice about what kinds of flying it can support at the airport.

I can only assume that would explain why Alaska just left the LAX – Fresno market. Spreading out those costs on a 76-seater on such a short hop is tough. That being said, Brett noted that they will be looking to grow more with mainline in particular once they get their gates and the customs facility back in operation. But Alaska is currently 25 percent smaller at LAX in May 2023 than it was in May 2019, and I have trouble seeing how it would get back to where it was anytime soon.

So it’s a recovery story in San Francisco and a story of shrinkage in LA and elsewhere. All of the California markets are an order of magntitude smaller than they were before the pandemic… except one.

Alaska + Virgin America % Change Departing Seats May 2023 vs May 2019 From Key California AirportsData via CiriumWhile one of the rising stars — San Jose — has fallen off dramatically since the pandemic, San Diego has only grown. For it to be above pre-pandemic levels as it is shows a stark contrast to the other California markets.

And Alaska continues to look for opportunity to grow there, as hard as that is in an airport with constraints.

Last week it announced it would add 1x daily to Eugene, an obvious opportunity in the airline’s heartland in the Pacific Northwest. But it also jumped into Washington/Dulles with 1x daily, something United did not appreciate. United will add a 4th daily in the market this summer with a monstrous 364-seat 777-200. Alaska has also filed a winter flight to Tampa.

It would seem that San Diego has proven to be the winner in California for Alaska, if you had to pick one. The airport is constrained, but Brett explained to me that they have the ability to add there more than you might expect. Of course, when the new Terminal 1 opens fully in 2027, there will be plenty of room, but Alaska isn’t waiting until then, and it doesn’t have to. Keep an eye on that corner of the country. The Eskimo likes what it sees.

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, direct, or wherever you get your podcasts.We thought the timing was right to do an episode on inflight wifi seeing as how Delta just made wifi free for all SkyMiles members at the beginning of this month. After touching on a little history — my favorite thing to do, especially since it drives Dave nuts — we talk about the current state of affairs and a look at what the future may bring. (Hello, Elon Musk.)

It has to keep getting better… right? (I mean, unless you’re flying Southwest.)

Email Dave here to tell him to live tweet his next flight and tell us all how the wifi is.

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Airbus and Qatar Bury the Hatchet, are Friends AgainFollowing 18 months of he-said, she-said, and he-painted, she-painted, Airbus and Qatar Airways settled their dispute out of court, putting a stop to a UK trial that would have led down a path that would have made no one happy but the lawyers.

At the core of the dispute, Qatar claimed that Airbus’s paint job led to erosion on its fleet of A350s causing a safety issue — which the manufacturer flatly denied. Qatar pouted its way toward Boeing during the dispute while Airbus pulled orders from Qatar, refusing to deliver any planes in a classic “take my ball and go home” maneuver. The battle then shifted into the government arena, with Qatar’s regulatory bodies backing its airline, while the EASA, Europe’s version of the FAA, backed Airbus.

Under the agreement, the orders which had been canceled — remember, mostly out of spite — are back. The plan is for 23 A350s and 50 A321neos to be delivered to Qatar when Airbus gets around to it. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Airbus is expected to be paying several hundred million dollars to Qatar in damages, which will finally give Qatar a chance to bling out the interior of its planes like it always dreamed. To sweeten the pot beyond the cash, Airbus threw in four two-night stay certificates at a Courtyard by Marriott just around the corner from its plant in Toulouse and a free tour for four at its A380 assembly plant in Hamburg.

Allegiant’s Q4 Buoys 2022 ResultsAllegiant Air posted a profitable Q4 to end the calendar year with a net income of $52.5 million, a nearly 400% jump from Q4 2019, the last full quarter in the industry before the term “social distancing” became a thing.

Operating revenue for the year’s final three months was $612 million, a 33% jump from those carefree, pandemic-free days at the end of 2019. The airline travel company set a new high for annual gross revenue, bringing in $2.3 billion, 25% more than 2019, while operating with 14% more capacity. Allegiant flew 16.8 million passengers this year, most of which flew between two completely random and arbitrary cities for reasons that no one — including the travelers themselves — could explain.

It ended the year with $1 billion in cash, or roughly the amount it costs to secure four 50-yard line season tickets to see the terribly mediocre Las Vegas Raiders next year in Allegiant Stadium.

Frontier Sets its Sights on Puerto Rico as its Newest FrontierFrontier Airlines is starting eight new routes to Puerto Rico beginning this May, adding to its strong position on the island, and giving it more routes to Puerto Rico than any other airline.

The new routes include seven U.S. cities and Cancun — which is basically an American city — so we’ll call it eight. The bulk of new flights will go to San Juan from six destinations with the additional requirement that the cities be near the top of the alphabet:

• Baltimore
• Cancun
• Chicago/Midway
• Cleveland
• Dallas-Fort Worth
• Detroit

Two cities in Florida will see an expanded presence on the island with new, nonstop service from Tampa to Aguadilla (BQN) and Orlando to Ponce (PSE). Lastly, Frontier will add one-stop service to San Juan in May from Denver, via DFW.

Frontier also used the announcement to introduce a 2.0 version of its GoWild! pass, at the introductory rate of $399. This summer-only version permits unlimited U.S. and international travel on the carrier between May 2 and September 30 in the unlikely event travelers can actually find an empty seat during the absolute peak travel period. Regular Frontier taxes and fees apply, and customers who sign up for the pass must choose between Frontier’s four groupings of tail animals and can only fly routes operated by planes with their selected tails.

For more on Frontier’s expansion into Puerto Rico, please visit Thursday’s post on crankyflier.com.

UK’s Slot Rules to Return this Summer

Carriers operating at UK airports will be once again required to “use ’em or lose ’em” at the pre-pandemic rates for the first time since early 2020. The government’s 80/20 rule, which requires airlines to operate at least 80% of their slot capacity or risk losing the slot will return to normal this summer.

A change introduced during the pandemic will stick, however. Airlines will be permitted to return up to 5% of their slots to the UK government to help avoid last minute cancellations. The UK is currently requiring 70% slot usage during the winter months, with the 80/20 rule returning in March. This will now match the EU, which is also going to return to 80% minimum usage this summer, with it currently at 75% for the winter.

Passenger levels at UK airports this summer are at about 85% of their 2019 levels, and that doesn’t include the several thousand passengers still stuck in a security queue in Amsterdam who have been trying to get home to Manchester since June.

Flyr Files Fr BnkrptcyNorwegian LCC and noted poor speller Flyr filed for bankruptcy in Oslo City Court on Wednesday after the carrier “was not successful with a new financing plan,” and the board of the carrier determined shutting down operations was the only solution.

All flights have been cancelled for the foreseeable future and ticket sales are halted. Although if anyone wants to lay down cash for a flight they know won’t operate, Flyr’s creditrs will find a way to take your money. Anyone who holds a ticket on Flyr that was purchased by credit card can contact their credit card company for a refund while those who used anything other than a credit card are not only nuts but are all SOL. The carrier is referring any further questions to the bankruptcy trustee that will be appointed by the Oslo City Court.

In the meantime, those left to wind things up at the airline will be given spelling lessons at no charge to them. Flyr does not own any of its airplanes, leasing a fleet of 12 planes (six B737 MAX 8s and six 737-800s). If anyone interested in one of those airplanes on the cheap, now would be a great time to contact Air Lease Corporation, Banc of America Leasing Ireland, or Standard Chartered Aviation Finance.

• Aer Lingus is knocking off service from London/Gatwick.
• Air New Zealand won $3.5 million from the Cook Islands after winning a tax refund in the High Court of the Cook Islands.
• Alaska is adding three new cities from San Diego: Eugene (begins June 15), Washington/Dulles (begins June 15), and Tampa (begins October 5)
• Antigua Airways is putting a temporary stop to its charter business while it gets its ducks in a row with the Antigua & Barbuda government. It’s believed changing the airline’s name to Antigua & Barbuda Airways could solve the problem.
• Avelo is ending Lexington – Orlando on February 20, halting the carrier’s foray into Kentucky.
• Bonza landed a bullseye in Melbourne.
• British Airways will resume service to mainland China on April 23. Daily service between London/Heathrow to Shanghai will begin then, with 3x weekly service to Beijing/Daxing to follow on June 3. Also it didn’t change its social media policy for its frontline employees. Pinky swear.
• Brussels CEO Peter Gerber resigned. If you want to know where he’s going, keep reading. Christina Foerster was named interim CEO.
• Condor determined that former Brussels CEO Peter Gerber earned his stripes and will take over as the carrier’s new CEO.
• Cyprus Airways is beginning 3x weekly service to Dubai.
• Delta is increasing its presence at Dallas/Love this summer, adding five more daily flights. Dallas/Love to Atlanta will increase from 4x to 5x daily, while it also adds 2x daily service to both Los Angeles and New York/JFK.
• EasyJet is offering jobs to laid off Flybe staff along with Ryanair.
• Finnair modified 10 A350s to carry more stuff.
• Icelandair is financing two B737 MAX aircraft.
• JetBlue pilots are expected to get 21.5% raises over the next 18 months plus all-you-can-drink Dunkin’ coffee in the crew room at their Boston hub. Meanwhile its ground ops workers voted against unionization,
• KLM is tapping the brakes on cargo flights over Suriname.
• LATAM Colombia will begin non-stop service between Bogota and Orlando on July 1 as a part of its JV with Delta.
• LOT spokesman Krzysztof Moczulski tweeted about an incident last week on a LOT flight from JFK to Warsaw that reminds us that when you gotta go, you gotta go.
• Lufthansa will operate its B787-9 Dreamliner to five more North American destinations this summer: Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver, Detroit, and Montreal.
• Qantas is being sued by an employee.
• Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said there could be significant air traffic control delays this summer.
• Southwest increased its firm B737 MAX 7 orders, converting ten options and swapping four earlier MAX 7 orders into MAX 8s.
• Tajik Air has one thing to say.
• WestJet suspended service from three cities to Europe this summer — Halifax, Toronto and Vancouver. Suspended services include flights to Dublin, Glasgow, London/Gatwick, and Paris. Halifax will maintain its flight to London/Heathrow while the carrier continues to consolidate its long-haul operation in Calgary.

I know a bunch of good jokes about umbrellas, but they usually go over people’s heads.

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Frontier has decided to go big in Puerto Rico, adding 8 new routes starting in May and bolstering its already growing position in the market. The airline has had its eye on this market for awhile, but I can’t help but wonder if the JetBlue acquistion of Spirit has anything to do with the decision to make a bigger move on the island. If that merger goes through, this will give Frontier an enormous head start in the market just in time for its primary competitor to disappear.

Puerto Rico is a challenging market, and that could very well be because it’s a challenging place to live. Puerto Rico’s population peaked near 3.83 million around the turn of the millennium. Thanks to economic struggles, issues with access to healthcare, more regular natural disasters thanks to climate change, and more, that has plunged to 3.26 million currently and it’s expected to continue to drop. According to the UN (chart below), the rosiest case scenario has the island losing another 1 million people by the end of the century.

These are all just projections, but they all point downward and there’s little reason to think that will change in the near future. This does not bode well for the island’s prospects, but in a sense, it does create opportunity for airlines.

Sure, there are issues like slowing birthrates, but the biggest decline in population is due to people leaving the island to live elsewhere. More than a million Puerto Ricans live in New York and Florida, but New York has not seen the growth that Florida has in recent years. While New York’s Puerto Rican population has remained relatively flat, Florida’s has grown from about 850,000 in 2010 to nearly 1.2 million a decade later. If you’re wondering just how bad Puerto Rico’s situation is… just knowing people are fleeing for a better life in Florida should show just how dire it is.

The next largest states in terms of Puerto Rican population are in the Northeast, and this predictably has created a route map from the island focused on those two areas. The largest airline in Puerto Rico is JetBlue and has been for many years, ever since American packed up its mini-hub and went away. Considering JetBlue’s biggest presence is in Boston, New York and Florida, well, it’s a perfect match.

As recently as summer 2018, JetBlue had about 40 percent of departing seats in the market. That has been creeping downward with January 2023 at 27.8 percent. Why? Because the ultra low cost carriers (ULCCs) are moving in.

Puerto Rican Departing Seat ShareData via CiriumThis is a perfect market for ULCCs, because the traffic visiting friends and family is huge but also not overly wealthy. People would much rather fly more frequently and save money on each trip than save up for one big trip a year and pay more. The opportunities for a ULCC to move into the market were obvious, and both Spirit and Frontier answered the call.

Spirit has been in the market for longer, but it wasn’t a meaningful player in the early days. When JetBlue peaked in summer 2018, Spirit started showing more interest in the market. It flies to many of the same cities as JetBlue, but it does it at a lower fare (if you don’t need to buy too many ancillaries).

Here’s a look at the January 2023 route map for both airlines. Markets in yellow are served only by Spirit, those in blue are only by JetBlue, and green means they’re served by both.

JetBlue/Spirit Puerto Rico map generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.Even where the airlines don’t overlap, they really do. Spirit serves Miami, but JetBlue is still nearby in Fort Lauderdale. Spirit is at BWI while JetBlue is at National. And JetBlue is alone at JFK but both are at Newark.

If/when a Spirit/JetBlue merger ever gets finalized, we can expect the map to… not look much different. JetBlue will presumably continue to serve these markets since they work for JetBlue. Either way, most people who are served well by JetBlue today will continue to be well-served. But with the JetBlue model winning out, fares will have to rise, and that’s where Frontier will be able to strike.

Frontier first went into the market in June 2017, and it hasn’t really put its foot on the gas since then. In typical Frontier fashion, it has tried a whole lot of markets, and some of them have made the cut. But a surprising number have been around for awhile now. Most of these markets are in the typical Northeast/Florida region, but Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham are in the mix as well. So Frontier is clearly willing to push those boundaries.

Now it’s adding some less likely suspects. From San Juan, it will now fly Baltimore, Chicago/Midway, Cleveland, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit… and Cancun. With the exception of Cancun, the other markets are larger cities that have decent Puerto Rican population sizes. Looking at a 2010 list of the top US communities by Puerto Rican population, Chicago is third, Boston is tenth, and Cleveland is twelfth.

Here’s how the route map looks. Red cities are already flying while green are new ones.

Frontier Puerto Rico map generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.Note that Orlando and Tampa look new, but those are already served from San Juan. Orlando will now get Ponce service — the first by Frontier in that city — while Tampa gains Aguadilla.

The moves from San Juan punch deeper into parts of the country with fewer ties to Puerto Rico, and that could be more about tourism than anything. As with most Frontier efforts, I imagine some routes will work and others will not. But this does help Frontier position itself to easily swoop in and start taking traffic away from Spirit if it becomes JetBlue and fares rise.

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With the Cranky Network Awards only a month away, we are deep in planning with our presenting sponsor Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. I had to do a day trip to Phoenix to do some filming with them, and I was excited to see that American’s flight times fit my needs perfectly. Why was I excited? With American’s announcement it will leave Long Beach at the end of February, this was probably my last chance to fly the airline on a route that I’ve flown many times over the last 2+ decades, dating back to my America West days.

How did it go? This was a textbook Mesa kind of flight, and it’s something I won’t miss. At least it was on time, but those interiors are just… not good. Get ready, United fliers.

We had a film crew set to be at the airport from 10am to 2pm, so that meant I could take the first flight out in the morning on Mesa which would put me in just after 9, and then I’d take the 3:45pm back. It was just under $300 for the roundtrip booked one week out, but I had a credit on file to cover most of the cost.

Since it was a day trip, I was able to leave home an hour before departure, drive myself over and park on the street just across from the airport. I had a nice brisk morning walk in and saw that the terminal was feeling pretty blue that day as it continues to undergo renovation.

The security line looked longer for TSA Precheck than the regular line, but that was deceptive since the regular line was inside while the Precheck line was outside. I got in the Precheck line and it took about 5 minutes to cruise through before heading over to gate 3.

Sitting at the gate was our chariot, a nearly 19-year old aircraft that has been repainted in Mesa’s house colors: white with a black tail.

There’s nothing quite like that first flight in the morning out of Long Beach. American annoyingly schedules it for 6:50am even though departures can’t happen until 7am with the noise limits. Inevitably, these flights board up early, they push back early, and then we sit. That’s exactly what happened on this trip.

I boarded when my group was called, and noticed the faded name of a maintenance manager on the nose. If he’s in charge of paint, he clearly hasn’t been doing his job.

Onboard, I took my seat way at the back. This was a Mesa kind of airplane.

American 5854 operated by MesaJanuary 18, 2023From Long Beach
➤ Scheduled Departure: 650a
➤ Actual Departure: 642a
➤ From Gate: 3
➤ Wheels Up: 708a
➤ From Runway: 30

To Phoenix
➤ Wheels Down: 903a
➤ On Runway: 7R
➤ Scheduled Arrival: 915a
➤ Actual Arrival: 913a
➤ At Gate: B2

Aircraft
➤ Type: Mitsubishi CRJ-900ER
➤ Delivered: April 22, 2004
➤ Registered: N920FJ, msn 15020
➤ Livery: Mesa Black Tail

Flight
➤ Cabin: Coach in Seat 18A
➤ Load: ~65% Full
➤ Flight Time: 55m

The seats were uncomfortable and seemed to have worn out their padding.

There were scuff marks and cracks all over the sidewall and seatback. I know it’s not unsafe, but it just looks like it is. It’s pretty disgusting inside.

We did push back 8 minutes early and got to the runway threshold 10 minutes before 7. We waited. Apparently there was an additional flow control delay, so we had to wait a few more minutes to depart. Meanwhile, people just decided to get up and wander back to the lav, as if they had never been on an airplane before. The joke was on them… the back lav was broken anyway.

The flight attendant firmly but politely told everyone to sit down. We were airborne at 7:08am.

It was a nice day to fly, but unfortunately it was somewhat hazy around so the views weren’t as good as I’d hoped. Still, I did get some nice shots of the mountains full of snow.

The flight attendants came through with a drink service, and I had water. They also handed out the customary Biscoff. I opened my tray table to put the water down, and well, it was not in great shape.

One side fell down much further than the other, and it was not stable, so if you put any weight, it pushed it down into your lap.

As usual, we landed to the east on a straight-in approach and I watched our awards venue pass by, just across the street from the arena.

We did have to do some long taxiing around the airport, and we blocked in at 9:13am, two minutes early.

I was off to romp through the airport with the film crew. I never left the airport itself, but I did have to go through security a couple times, so that was fun. Oh, and imagine going through security wearing this costume…

Our filming schedule required a whole lot of things to go right, and somehow they all did. We finished up at the rental car center, so I took the train back to Terminal 4, and I was at the security line just about an hour before departure back home. Perfect timing.

This airplane was a VERY slightly newer vintage, about a year younger. It was, at least, still painted in American colors, but I did see at least one aircraft that day which was all gray in American’s base color and had no markings. I assume they’re just slowly preparing to flip these to United, and I have little doubt that the interiors will not be touched. That’s Denver and Houston’s problem now.

The airport was pretty quiet — not a surprise since it’s a Wednesday in January — so I grabbed a seat and waited to be called to board. It was not long before I headed down the jet bridge.

American 5748 operated by MesaJanuary 18, 2023From Phoenix
➤ Scheduled Departure: 345p
➤ Actual Departure: 341p
➤ From Gate: B20
➤ Wheels Up: 354p
➤ From Runway: 25R

To Long Beach
➤ Wheels Down: 354p
➤ On Runway: 30
➤ Scheduled Arrival: 411p
➤ Actual Arrival: 358p
➤ At Gate: 3

Aircraft
➤ Type: Mitsubishi CRJ-900ER
➤ Delivered: January 31, 2005
➤ Registered: N928LR, msn 15028
➤ Livery: Ugly Flag Tail

Flight
➤ Cabin: Coach in Seat 11A
➤ Load: ~65% Full
➤ Flight Time: 1h

As I boarded, one of the flight attendants was complaining to the other about how she didn’t like being in Billings for a layover. I walked on just as she said it, and I couldn’t resist, saying “well, you’ll have a whole new list of cities to lay over in soon.” As I walked back to my seat, I could hear her saying “everybody else seems to know more about it than we do. Some United flight attendant said we’re going to all fly 5am flights up to San Francisco.” She seemed a little overwhelmed by the change.

I was further forward on this flight which made a big difference in terms of the noise. The interior still had the usual Mesa scuffs, but it seemed to be in slightly better shape. There was a little more padding in the seats this time, and they looked better, at least.

We pushed back early and made our way to the south side to depart, as usual. As on the way out, the flight was smooth but again the seat belt sign never went off.

The flight attendants came through a couple times, once with drinks and another before landing to tell everyone to bring their seats to their upright and locked position. There were a lot of confused faces when they did that, because many of these seats clearly seemed to have self-reclined, mine included.

Though we were in high clouds for much of this trip, we began descending early enough for me to snap this beautiful shot of Mt San Jacinto, home to Idyllwild and better known to many as that giant mountain to which you can visit by taking a tram from Palm Springs to the top.

As we descended over Orange County, I just kept thinking about all the times I’d flown American, US Airways, and America West between these two airports. This really is the end of an era for me.

Practically, the loss of American doesn’t mean all that much. I rarely found a connecting option from Long Beach via Phoenix that made more sense than going up to LA and flying nonstop. And now that Southwest is in the market with higher frequency and generally lower fares, I likely won’t miss it much.

But as we glided to a smooth landing on runway 30, I still couldn’t help but feel nostalgic. I won’t miss those Mesa interiors at all, but I’ll miss seeing the ghosts of America West at my hometown airport.

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On Thursday evening at 7pm sharp, Horizon flight 2400 touched down in Seattle after a 51 minute flight from Spokane. This was the last scheduled passenger-carrying Q400 flight on Horizon, and it marks the end of turboprops flying under a major airline brand in the US. Despite this major shift in fleet, the airline’s mission of serving the Pacific Northwest and following along the West Coast has not changed.

For many years, Horizon specialized in flying short hops around the Pacific Northwest. It was acquired by Alaska in 1986, but it still flew under its own brand until the last decade when it settled into a more traditional regional arrangement with its overlord.

T-100Data via CiriumOver the years, Horizon flew a motley crew of smaller turboprops, including the Metroliner (phased out in February 1998), the Dash 8-100 and -200 (gone in January 2009), and even for a brief time the Dorner 328 (flown February 1994 to October 1997). It did also fly a handful of Fokker 28s, peaking capacity on those around the turn of the millennium.

The Fokkers were an interesting lot, and they provided a look into Horizon’s future. They were much larger than the rest of the fleet in terms of capacity at the time, but they still focused on the same basic network design. The idea was to put them on higher demand short-haul routes but also longer, thinner routes from secondary markets like Boise that couldn’t support mainline jet capacity. Here’s the map at the F28’s peak in August 2000.

Horizon Fokker F28 August 2000 Route map generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L.Swartz.The F28 was replaced by the CRJ-700, and the jet network grew south while culling flights to the east.

Horizon CR7 August 2008 Route map generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.Why did that happen? The Q400 arrived. The Q400 joined the fleet in January 2001. With more than 70 seats, this airplane gave good turboprop economics with a whole lot more capacity. This was perfect for those short east-west flights and even down into Northern California. That airplane enabled the jets to focus on longer hauls where the Q400 had its most significant disadvantage.

The CRJ-700s lasted into 2011 with Horizon when the airline decided to focus back in on a single Q400 fleet, but then SkyWest was brought in to fly some of those airplanes, at least on the longest hauls down to Southern California that couldn’t support a mainline jet and were too far for the Q400.

They were never a great fit. Alaska has those airplanes outfitted with an all-coach cabin, treating it like the Horizon turboprop experience. Could it have gone with a First Class? Sure, but then it would have had even fewer seats available to sell in coach. It was in 2015 when SkyWest started flying its first Embraer 175 for Alaska, and that’s when things clicked. The CRJ-700s were phased out by November 2017, the same year that Horizon started getting Embraer 175s of its own.

With a proper First Class onboard and still 6 more seats in total compared to the CRJ-700s, the Embraers started opening up new markets with their range. Sure they could still go north-south, but they could now really punch into midcon flying past the Rockies. With SkyWest, this was a vehicle that Alaska relied upon to build up its Seattle hub, especially as it fought Delta’s incursion. Horizon dabbled in midcon flying a bit early on, but it was more focused along the coast where it had always been.

Horizon Q400 Average Stage Length By MonthData via CiriumThe successful introduction of the Embraer 175s into the Horizon fleet meant the Q400s started seeing their roaming grounds shrink to be much closer to home. Average stage length was up near 300 miles but it had dropped to under 250 when the pandemic hit. What happened after was more of an economic survival decision than anything else, but it was short-lived anyway. Then the decision to get rid of the Q400s entirely was another survival decision. With pilots so difficult to find, Horizon knew it would be better off with a single fleet so that it had fewer training events and less of an issue moving people between airplanes. The Q400 was never going to win the strategic battle vs the Embraer 175, and so, its time was up.

The aircraft that flew the final flight on Thursday had a pretty typical Q400 kind of day… Portland – Seattle – Portland – Seattle – Wenatchee – Seattle – Spokane – Seattle. Those routes all remain, but they will shift to the Embraer 175s. Capacity on the aircraft is similar, but the costs are certainly different. Despite this change, the airline’s route map still hasn’t changed all that much over the years.

Maps via CiriumSure, there are a couple of flights into the middle but that’s more the domain of SkyWest. More noticeably, the airline has moved into the state of Alaska with a small presence. But other than that, it’s the same core network going up and down the coast along with flights heading east toward Montana.

Are there any losers? Oh sure, but those losers were mostly culled when the 37-seaters disappeared more than a decade ago. These are the same types of cities that have lost all around the US as small city air service continues to crumble. Twenty years ago, Horizon served Arcata/Eureka, Butte, Kamloops, Klamath Falls, North Bend, Pendleton, and Pocatello. Now there are no flights at all to those cities under the Alaska name. But more recently,the bleeding has stopped.

Considering just how much the fleet make-up has changed over the years, that’s a surprisingly small number of cities to have disappeared off the route map. At the same time, Horizon has added a lot more lines to the map, especially flying north-south. Now that will all be done on the Embraer 175… until the next fleet decision comes due.

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AA, JetBlue Post Year-End EarningsAmerican Airlines beat already-revised analyst predictions for Q4 as it posted a profit of $843 million on $13.2 billion in gross revenue. The gross revenue jumped 17% from Q4 2019, and came despite operating a smaller airline, with capacity down 6.1%. AA ended the year $127 million in the black with Q4 pushing it to an annual profit after being in the red for the year’s first nine months.

The airline paid about $3.50 per gallon of fuel, an almost 50% hike from last year. American expects Q1 capacity to be up 10% from last year, with expenses to stay even or down as much as 3% in Q1 of 2023. AA ended the calendar year with $12 billion in liquidity, including thousands of “American Loves Mesa” bumper stickers that have been sitting next to the dumpster at its Fort Worth headquarters for months.

American’s BFF (but only in the Northeast, if anyone asks) JetBlue also announced its earnings report this week, led by a $24 million profit for the year’s final quarter. It increased capacity by 2.4% in Q4 compared to 2019, leading to a gross revenue of $2.4 billion – the highest Q4 in company history. It paid $3.70 per gallon at the pump, and that includes fuel it “borrowed” from Spirit siphoning it out of the yellow airplanes when ground crew was counting money from fees and not protecting the airplanes.

For the full year, JetBlue lost $298 million on $9.2 billion of gross revenue. On the bright side, the gross revenue is an increase of 52% from last year. On the not-so-bright side, its $9.5 billion in expenses is a 55% increase from last year.

It ended the year with $1.2 billion in cash. Its assets include short-term investments, long-term marketable securities, and a fee-loving, yellow-painted airline that is super pumped to become part of JetBlue because that’s totally what it wanted all along, promise.

United Puts Its Money on the Table, Purchases a Portion of MesaAfter tabling discussions at one point, United Airlines solidified its stake in Mesa, the scorned lover of AA, and United’s newest dance partner. UA purchased 10% of the regional carrier, valued at about $10.5 million. The deal consisted of United purchasing 4.04 million shares of Mesa at Monday’s closing price of $2.61 per share.

Mesa previously received a $10 million revolving loan from United — which comes due next January — and other financial commitments. The additional commitments were not disclosed but were rumored to be two complimentary nights at the Newark Airport Hilton and a United Club pass for one, valid through March 31.

UA also earns a seat on Mesa’s board of directors, but its right to have a seat at the table would go away if its ownership of Mesa ever dips below 5%. Additional terms of the agreement include an increase in rates to help Mesa cover the pay raises it instituted late last year – a deal that runs through 2025.

United is no stranger to putting money on the table for its regional carriers, as it also owns a 40% share of Commuteair and is a 19% stakeholder in Republic.

Federal Government Begins Probe into Southwest’s Christmas BluesThe Department of Transportation is beginning its investigation into Southwest’s meltdown which occurred at the end of last month. The airline canceled almost 17,000 flights between December 21 and December 31, operating just enough flights to put coal in the stocking of every one of its customers on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

The government is turning its attention to determine if the carrier “engaged in unrealistic scheduling of flights which under federal law is considered an unfair and deceptive practice.” Unfortunately for DOT investigators, their first day on the case happened to be two weeks ago when the FAA’s NOTAM system went down, preventing it from traveling where it needed to be. Some in the industry believe the investigators attempted to pursue an overzealous scheduling of flights for their investigation, which could be considered an unfair and deceptive practice.

Southwest said it would cooperate with the investigation, even offering to upgrade the DOT sleuths to Wanna Get Away Plus fares when traveling on official business. The airline said in a statement that its holiday flight schedule was thoughtfully designed with the backing of a solid plan to operate it with ample staffing, all of which went awry when ~~someone unplugged a router at their Dallas HQ~~ a nationwide deep freeze knocked tipped the first domino to help send its operation off the rails.

Alaska, Southwest Both Profit in 2022

Alaska and Southwest both ended 2022 in the black, although Southwest’s final tally wasn’t nearly as positive it thought it would on December 20 of last year.

Alaska finished ahead by $58 million for the year on $9.6 billion of gross revenue, the highest figure in airline history. Alaska retired its the rest of its A320 fleet and nine Q400 aircraft during Q4 before putting its final Q400s out to pasture earlier this week.

Southwest finished with a $539 million profit after a loss of $220 million in the final three months – almost all coming from its late December nightmare.

The $539 million profit figure is down 80% from the $2.3 billion WN earned in 2019. It’s $23.8 billion in revenue outpaced 2022 by 6%, with a 48% spending bump at the pump from 2019.

Alaska finished the year with $2.4 billion in cash, while Southwest ended with $12.3 billion. Alaska is using its cash holdings to upgrade its offices in Seattle, improve crew rooms at hubs across the country, and raffle off one free admission to the Space Needle at each flight departing Seattle for the next month. Southwest is using its cash reserves to team up with Big Pharma to create a magic amnesia pill that focuses exclusively on the last 10 days of 2022.

Hawaiian Pilots Primed for PaydayHawaiian Airlines could now have the highest paid pilots across the cargo industry as the carrier prepares to begin flying for Amazon later this year.

The union reached an agreement with the carrier on a four-year deal which bumps pilot pay to record-high levels of compensation, potentially topping the comp packages for pilots at cargo heavyweights FedEx and UPS. Hawaiian’s pilots will vote on the deal in the coming weeks beginning today, and it is expected to be approved without much trouble.

Amazon is paying Hawaiian a fixed monthly fee per aircraft, a per-flight hour fee and a fee for each flight cycle operated. The first two converted A330 freighters will begin flying in the second half of this year, and the cargo deal is expected to add about 160 pilots into the Hawaiian pilot family.

With the agreement, Hawaiian captains could earn up to $376 per hour, with that increasing to an hourly rate of $436 by 2027. Other perks in the new CBA include a $10 gift card valid at all O’ahu ABC Store locations and one free pineapple per family per quarter.

• Air France is bidding adieu to Minneapolis/St. Paul
• Air Transat will close its Vancouver base later this year.
• Alaska picked Intelsat to upgrade the streaming quality on its E175 fleet. It’s also banning plastic cups onboard its flights. Passengers will now be served beverages in a trough that will be passed row-by-row during flight.
• Amazon Air is primed to begin service in India.
• Buffalo Airlines — which we checked, and it’s an actual airline but not based in Buffalo — is expected to receive its first B737 soon.
• Delta is ending service to Nagoya, Japan (NGO) at the end of next month. Meanwhile, it received government approval to operate New York/JFK to Sao Paulo. Easy come, easy go.
• Ethiopian is filling the void in the historically underserved route between Copenhagen and Addis Ababa.
• Finnair sidled Gabriela Hiitola with tons of baggage this week, naming her the Senior VP of Finnair Cargo.
• Hawaiian doesn’t give an F about anything, as it is resuming 3x weekly service between Honolulu and Fukuoka on April 28.
• LOT is continuing to seek compensation in the form of lots of money from Boeing while Smartwings is doing the smart thing and teaming up with LOT.
• JetBlue grew the enrollment in its TrueBlue loyalty program in 2022 by 50% and that’s before taking into account all the Frontier executives who signed up as an inducement to get it to back out of the Spirit Sweepstakes.
• PLAY is ready to add curling and ice hockey to its list of preferred activities.
• Ryanair is cutting one route out of Zagreb.
• S7 Airlines grounded its A320 fleet.
• Saudi RIA, which is an airline — sorta — needs a new CEO after Tony Douglas stepped down following two grueling months on the job.
• Solomon Airlines is lending pilots to Air Vanuatu.
• Southwest entered into a tentative agreement with its dispatchers, agreeing to dispatch 17% raises to the group.
• SWISS announced with great precision that it intends to name 20 A220s after tourist destinations. One day you will be able to fly SWISS aboard the San Bernardino.
• United pilots are united in their new union chair.
• Uzbekistan Airways ordered 12 A320neos. In a busy week for the Uzbek people the airline is trying to flip a bunch of airplanes.
• WestJet will resume service between St. John’s and Tampa with a weekly Spring Break flight in March and April.

I know a bunch of good jokes about umbrellas, but they usually go over people’s heads.

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Did you know that illegal charters were a thing? I had no idea, but when a spokesperson from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approached me to talk about it, I was instantly captivated by this idea.

I had visions of someone running a previously-misplaced 727 to shuttle people from Sheboygan to West Africa at 500 feet to avoid radar, but of course it’s nothing that amazing. Illegal charters are usually on aircraft of a much smaller scale, often by a company with someone licensed to fly airplanes… but not with the right licensing, training, safety, or maintenance program to actually carry passengers for money. But not all of these violations are small, including one case that actually involved baseball team charters. This appears to be a chronic issue, and the FAA ends up playing whack-a-mole with these fly-by-night operations.

In fact, it’s a big enough problem that the FAA has formed a so-called Special Emphasis Investigations Team to really dig into what it calls “complex cases.” It puts out a list of legal/licensed air charter operators to help consumers, though having the page titled “Part 135 Aircraft Listing from OpSpec D085” doesn’t really seem like it’s going to make it easy for people to find or understand.

I’ve been able to look through several enforcement actions, and man, is this world crazy. In general, it seems like some small mom-and-pop aircraft operator that picks people up and flies them somewhere for money, but like I said, it can be much bigger.

In most cases, these are people who are properly licensed to fly airplanes, as I mentioned. If your buddy has a plane and you want a ride, you can pay for gas and that’s no problem. But once it turns into payment for services, then that puts this into a whole different world of Part 135 charter flying that has significantly more regulations to protect passengers. Just check out some of these I’ve been reading about.

TapJets Gets an Emergency RevocationTapJets is a company that at one point had an actual certificate, so I suppose that gives them a leg up. The thing is, you can have a certificate and still fly airplanes in ways you aren’t allowed to fly them. It did just that back in 2016.

The airline had a BAe 125 which it did not have on its Operations Specifications (OpSpec) as required, but that didn’t stop it from flying from New Orleans/Lakefront to Shenandoah Valley with at least one paying passenger. It did the same from Monterey to Aspen, Naples (FL) to Atlanta, and Spring (TX) to Las Vegas. This was no isolated incident.

If that’s not problematic enough, it flew a Falcon 10 from Batesville (AR) to Mesquite (TX). That wasn’t a problem in itself, but the pilot just happened to not have an Airlines Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate, so he had no business flying any paying passengers. There were more pilot problems, including a second-in-command who wasn’t trained properly and held nothing more than his student pilot certificate.

It was easy to catch TapJets in the act since they had sent out quotes to clients offering these services. By the end of 2017, the FAA revoked the airline’s certificate.

It seems, incredibly, that TapJets still exists but not as an operator. As it says on its website:

TapJets Technologies Inc, arranges flights on behalf of our clients with FAA Certified FAR Part 135 direct air carriers that exercise full operational control of charter flights at all times. All flights purchased on our platform will be operated by FAR Part 135 direct air carriers that have been certified to provide service for TapJets charter clients and that meet all FAA safety standards. Your itinerary will clearly state the name of the certified operator conducting your flight.

Rosado Aviation Goes RogueThis might be one of my favorite ones in that Rosado so blatantly ignored pretty much all the laws. Between May 2019 and February 2021, Rosado flew at least 52 flights as an air carrier, but it has no certificate or people in any of the required positions to actually get a certificate.

Rosado, it seems, used a Cessna 560, a Beech B200, and a Beech F90 to fly private flights mostly for companies. I see here mentioned Brynfan Associates and Metz Culinary Management going all over the place, ranging from the Scranton – Presque Isle route all the way to Greensville – Sarasota and Lubbock – Tucson.

The fake airline was fined more than $1.1 million for doing this, but the FAA tells me that Rosado still hasn’t settled.

Weathervane Aviation Services Makes BankWeathervane Aviation Services apparently was a real company, but in reality it was just somebody who created an LLC and not much more. Using two Cessna 402Cs, this guy went out and did a deal with U.S. Drywall to fly a daily shuttle between New Bedford and Nantucket for $25,000 a month.

After one month in 2016, Weathervane had flown 52 flights, and the FAA sent an email saying this was not allowed without a certificate. What did this person do? Oh nothing… just flew another 634 flights in the next three quarters. Then he renewed the contract and flew another 550 or so flights.

It seems like the FAA needs some more physical enforcement power to actually stop these people from running these flights, because all it could do was put down a $1,001,000 fine. The owner clearly didn’t care, and he would not settle. The FAA has now “per our standard protocols, referred the case to the U.S. Department of Justice for further action.”

Humes McCoy Aviation Put Your Packages at RiskHumes McCoy is, to the surprise of nobody, a Florida-based company. It had a few props and somehow convinced UPS that it was legitimate. It ended up flying dozens of Cessna Grand Caravan flights for UPS from Raleigh-Durham to Jacksonville (NC), New Bern, and Dare County (NC). It also ran Beech King Air from Columbia (SC) on short-hauls and a Casa 212 out of Cedar Rapids (IA).

I can’t help but wonder how the heck UPS allowed this to happen, but maybe when you aren’t carrying passengers, you care a little less. I dunno. Either way, this was a big one, and the FAA agreed to settle for a mere $5.9 million… but Humes McCoy has not settled and again this one is heading to the Department of Justice.

Sports Teams Go Illegal with ParadigmThis may be the strangest one of all. Paradigm Air Operators, Inc had its certificate revoked at the dawn of the pandemic. Why is this strange? Because this wasn’t a small fly-by-night that could easily evade detection.

Paradigm did have a certificate, and it flew 2 757-200s and a 737-400. It flew its flights on high profile routes with high profile customers. For example, it flew the Dolan family — founders of HBO and Cablevision — from St Louis to Cleveland and on to the Caymans. It also regularly flew on behalf of Private Jet Services Group for a variety of travelers all over.

What’s most fascinating to me, however, is it got into sports charters, flying the Oakland A’s, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Texas Rangers, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Cleveland Indians despite having no legal authority to do so. It’s not like the teams were dealing with them directly. They apparently went through a broker who then got a nice commission from Paradigm. But that was the tip of the iceberg. Paradigm was flying all around the world and seemingly had no concerns about the legality of it all.

Paradigm did have a certificate, but it was a certificate that only allowed noncommon or private carriage operations. That’s not enough. It also used pilots who were not adequately trained, and it didn’t have the economic authority.

The scale of some of these violations is really remarkable. I can’t believe that this happens so regularly, but I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising considering there is good money to be made.

If you’re worried about this, the FAA says these are some warning signs to look for:

• If the price is too good to be true, it probably is.
• If the company provides the aircraft and at least one crewmember, yet attempts to transfer operational control to the passenger.
• No Federal Excise Tax charge. Legitimate operators have to charge this.
• A lack of a safety briefing or passenger briefing cards.
• Any evasiveness to questions or concerns. Legitimate operators should be transparent and helpful.
• If the pilot or someone associated with the company coaches passengers on what to say or do if an FAA aviation inspector meets the aircraft at its destination.

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, direct, or wherever you get your podcasts.I know that I also announced the nominees for the 2023 Cranky Network Awards presented by Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport here on the blog last Wednesday, but I didn’t really give much color around them. If you want color, listen in for what I will candidly say was a far funnier episode than I expected.

Curious to know where the deliciously-named Beef Island lies? Wondering what what the magic square at Sagrada Familia has to do with the airlines? Ever considered how to pronounce Göteborg? It’s hard to believe, but we cover all of these topics this week.

And remember to tune in to the show on February 23 at 6:30pm PT, 7:30pm MT, 8:30pm CT, 9:30pm ET, and 2:30am in Göteborg. We’ll post the link when it’s ready.

Email Dave here to tell him how he should be more excited about the awards show.

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As is often the case, United CEO Scott Kirby gave a masterclass on where he sees the airline industry going during his initial comments in the airline’s earnings call last week. There was a lot of talk of comparing revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how cost convergence would result in higher profits. This may be tough to follow, so I thought I’d break it down to explain exactly what Scott is seeing.

Revenues as a Higher Percent of GDPOver the years, comparing airline revenues to GDP or comparing growth in airline revenues vs growth in GDP have been commonly-used metrics. Depending upon the timeframe used, it can be a good but very general judge of if the airline industry is growing too fast or not fast enough to keep up with economic growth. That is where Scott’s story begins, but I should make it clear that his comments were zeroing in specifically on the US industry here and he’s looking at domestic revenues only.

Taking domestic airline revenues and comparing them to the US GDP, we get this slide which United included in its presentation:

via UnitedBefore 9/11, there was a completely different dynamic with GDP. Fares tended to be much higher, leading to higher revenues, and low-fare carriers were a smaller piece of the industry. But there was a permanent shift starting after 9/11 when fares tumbled due to the dramatic drop in demand. Low-fare airlines started to grow significantly and the legacy airlines spent the next decade trying to find the right way to deal with the demand environment, creating low-fare carriers of their own. (Remember Ted, Song, Metrojet… you name it? Now forget them. Those were all terrible ideas.)

This lowering of revenue decoupled the airlines from their GDP reference point. Even as airlines were adding capacity, the fares were not keeping up. In the decade before the pandemic, it settled into a steady place where domestic airline revenues were 0.49 percent of GDP which, as legend has it, is how the San Francisco 49ers got their name.

During the pandemic, all hell broke loose. There’s no reason to even bother thinking about what happened during those dark times, but it should be noted that the estimate for 2022 is that it will climb back to 0.45 percent. If you remember, fares were still pretty low at the beginning of 2022 when Omicron reared its ugly head. They rapidly picked up steam in the second and third quarter, however.

Consider this: according to DOT data, domestic airline revenue in Q1 was $41.2 billion in Q1. It soared to $55.3 billion in Q2 and $53.1 billion in Q3. If we hit 0.45 percent in 2022, then getting back to the now-standard 0.49 percent in 2023 should be possible. And Scott made it clear in his remarks that he sees opportunity to get back up to the mid 50s. Blue skies ahead for everyone (except the 49ers).

The Magic of Cost ConvergenceIn a sense, this is all backwards looking. The question is… why would the industry be able to get above where it’s been for the last decade? And that’s where this gets much more interesting.

Ultimately, this comes down to what Scott calls “cost convergence.” As he sees it, the low-fare carriers will have their costs get closer to the costs of the legacy airlines. Just doing the math, that will force fares up and that’s good for the legacies. Here’s a crude map with no real numbers just to illustrate the point.

The idea is that the low-fare carriers are the price leaders and the legacies must compete with them. If the ULCCs have higher costs, their fares will have to rise to maintain their current level of profitability. This will allow legacy fares to rise as well (not as fast since not all fares match ULCCs), but since legacy costs are going up more slowly, legacy profits will increase.

Poof… MAGIC. But WHY are ULCC costs increasing faster? Scott had several reasons for that.

Pilots, Pilots, Pilots, and Other StuffThe biggest impact on costs will be the ongoing pilot shortage. The legacy airlines are setting the bar. We have a very rich contract on the table for Delta. If that gets approved, I think we can all safely assume that American and United will follow with something similar if not identical. So, pilots will get trained up and once they reach the 1,500 hours required to fly for an airline, they’ll roll into the regionals as a de facto training program. The regional flow-through programs are a way to get put right into the high-paying legacies after a short time.

Regionals had to jack up their pay dramatically, but now that combined with the promise of drastically increasing legacy pay within a couple years will keep the pipeline flowing and the legacies as the preferred pilot destination. If the supply remains tight, how do the other airlines get pilots if they aren’t paying as much and the pilot pool remains shallow? The ULCCs seem to believe that with legacy pay jumping so much higher, they’ll have plenty of room to increase and still attract people. Whether that’s true or not, only time will tell.

They will always be able to get some pilots. After all, some people like the bases that one airline may offer over another. Another person may like flying for, say, Allegiant, because they get to sleep in their beds every night. But for these airlines to grow, they need to attract a lot more than just those niche groups. Spirit pilots just approved a new agreement, and that will certainly help. But the way Scott views it, that won’t be enough. If they can’t get closer to legacy pay, they are never going to be able to staff all the growth that’s on the order books. At least, that’s the narrative being put forth, but it’s not a guarantee.

At some point, the pilot shortage has to ease compared to what we have now. The demand for pilots is through the roof, and the economy is booming. Growth will slow, the economy will turn down, and more pilots will probably come into the system. Some things, like the 1,500 hour, aren’t likely to change, so that will keep the squeeze on the pilot pipeline. Ultimately, however, there is going to some a cyclical nature to this and we are at the top of the cycle.

The key here, however, is that Scott isn’t saying the ULCCs won’t get any pilots. He’s saying that for them to be able to get enough pilots to fund all their planned growth, they’ll have to pay relatively closer to what the legacies pay than has been the case historically. That’s cost convergence.

But pilot pay is only part of it. Scott also says that more employees are needed to run every flight because sick calls are higher. At United, the back half of 2022 saw sick calls 19 percent higher than the back half of 2019. United views this as a permanent shift and not one that will go back to where it was. The other airlines will either have to be fine running a worse operation or they’ll have to hire more and increase costs. Even if they want to hire more, it may be tough to do without increasing pay again. Since the ULCCs have already run leaner operations, it might require them increase more than the legacies… cost convergence.

On top of this, there are two things that will keep a lid on capacity. First, the aircraft manufacturers are behind and can’t catch up. So, deliveries are delayed and all those airlines that retired a bunch of aircraft during the pandemic are now just waiting for more capacity. I expect this will eventually ease, but it does keep a lid on things in the near to medium term at least.

Also, and what is presumably a bigger, long-term issue is the country’s air traffic control system. As Scott sees it, we’ve basically hit our limit on capacity in the US, at least in certain parts of it. Sure, there can be more on clear days and you can fly to and from any city in Eastern Montana as much as you’d like, but additional growth where the bulk of the population lives is just going to compound these meltdowns that have become more and more regular. This used to be primarily an issue in the northeast, but we’ve also seen several air traffic slowdowns in Florida as of late. Unless the government does something about that, growth will have no choice but to slow down.

When you combine that all together, what do you get? You have lower capacity than airlines would like along with higher costs. That will push fares higher, and with cost convergence, that will lead to higher legacy airline profits.

Will This Happen?We do have to keep in mind that this comes from the CEO of a legacy airline. This kind of pressure on his non-legacy competition is music to his and his shareholders’ ears, and it tells a grand story that supports United’s future. That being, said, Scott has a strong track record when it comes to predicting macro changes.

There are still a lot of “ifs” here that are out of anyone’s direct control. Pilot demand will shift, but will ULCCs be able to maintain pay at the levels they are at right now? I’d imagine some will do better than others, but it’s not entirely clear how this will play out. Will sick rates stay where they are? Maybe. Maybe not. Scott is much more confident about the path than I am, but I can certainly see how it could play out this way, and I think it would be a mistake to just write off the idea completely.

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United is Printing MoneyUnited Airlines’ Q4 profit and outlook for 2023 exceeded Wall Street expectations, proving the carrier is becoming an expert at printing money.

United showed a whopping Q4 profit of $843 million on $12.4 billion in gross revenue, a 31% increase in profit compared to Q4 2019 – the last full quarter prior to the pandemic. Gross revenue was up nearly 14% from 2019 despite 9% less flying, leading to a profit despite a 21% increase in costs. The average fuel cost for United in Q4 was $3.54 per gallon, discounted $0.20 thanks to the airline’s supermarket rewards card earning it a price break.

The carrier expects to increase flying by as much as 20% in Q1 this year compared to Q1 2022. It has a key goal to reach an agreement with its pilots in 2023, which can’t happen until the union elects a new leader, and that’s expected to be done by the end of this month.

For the full year, United’s profit totaled $737 million with an operating margin of 5.2%. It ends the year with $18.2 billion in liquidity including hundreds of unopened CDs of Rhapsody in Blue that it plans to sell on eBay.

Delta Pilots Likely to Receive 30% RaiseDelta Air Lines and its pilots’ union agreed on a preliminary new contract, giving pilots a 30% pay bump over the four year lifespan of the deal. If ratified by the entire pilots’ union, it would guarantee Delta another four years of labor peace, ending the admittedly extremely remote possibility of a devastating strike in the coming months.

Delta’s pilots authorized a strike in October if the union and airline could not come to an agreement, but they did. The agreement would give pilots $7.2 billion in value over the four year deal, about 25% of which is in quality-of-life improvements which include hazard pay for flying into Newark and Delta opening a new pilot base on Maui.

The current agreed-upon deal features an 18% raise the day it’s formally signed and ratified, a 5% raise next year, and two 4% raises in the following two years. It also incudes a one-time bonus payment equal to 4% of 2020 and 2021 salary plus 14% of 2022 salary. The deal also guarantees Delta’s pilot pay will exceed those at both American and United by at least 1%, a relevant clause as both those airlines are currently in discussions with their respective unions and will probably agree to the exact same thing.

Southwest Budgets a Billion to Buoy IT SystemAs Southwest continues to dig out from its operational debacle from last month, CEO Bob Jordan told Rapid Rewards members that the airline is budgeting more than $1 billion to upgrade its IT systems to help prevent another episode like it experienced in December.

Southwest reported to the SEC (this one, not this one), that it canceled nearly 17,000 flights between December 22 and December 31 leading directly to $425 million in lost revenue. And that’s before accounting for reimbursement to passengers for other expenses incurred, the 25,000 Rapid Rewards points it sent out to affected passengers, the compensation sent to front-fine workers of 25,000 “SWAG” points, and the tens of thousands of postcards it’s mailing to customers asking, “Do u still luv me?”

The airline is also potentially on the hook for a fine from the federal government due to its rough week. The DOT has been fining carriers for abysmal on-time repayment of refunds but might just give Southwest mercy this time since it’s been well over a week and DOT still hasn’t issued refunds anyone from the NOTAM outage.

Lufthansa Prepares to Take the Leap

Lufthansa is set to formally submit an offer to acquire a stake in ITA, the beleaguered Italian airline that is constantly restructuring, rebranding, or being put up for sale.

Of Lufthansa’s two main competitors on the transaction, Air France-KLM says it won’t contest the bid. The second competitor to Lufthansa – common sense – declined to comment. The airline first wanted to only dip its toe in the water, purchasing a minority stake, but now appears prepared to take a majority piece of ITA, with options to purchase the entire thing. It’s believed Lufthansa agreed to these terms after a long meeting with the Italian government that included several bottles of grappa.

Air France-KLM was initially selected by the Italian government last summer, but an exclusive 30-day negotiating period led to the potential deal falling through. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr described Italy as the carrier’s most important market outside of Germany and the United States – and plans to use the purchase of ITA to develop a southern European hub to complement its stronghold in the north.

Delta to Upgrade Lounges in New York and Los AngelesDelta released more details on its plan to open new Delta One-only lounges at its Los Angeles and New York/JFK hubs in 2024. These would be Delta’s first premium-class only lounge offering since converting its BusinessElite lounges in Atlanta and JFK to regular Sky Clubs more than a decade ago.

The Delta One lounges will only be eligible to passengers flying in the Delta One cabin, providing a more intimate lounge experience, and offering cover from the never-ending long lines to enter Sky Clubs. The lounge at JFK will be about 36,000 square feet, will be located in Concourse B in Terminal 4, and is expected to feature the world’s largest Biscoff cookie.

In Los Angeles, Delta’s new lounge will be just 10,000 square feet and will be connected to the fancy new Sky Club in Terminal 3. The smaller size in LA is unlikely to be an issue, as Delta has far fewer routes and frequencies of flights offering Delta One compared to JFK.

The airline is also opening an exclusive Delta One check-in area later this year at LAX, in its efforts to offer a premium experience to woo high-value travelers in Southern California or Hollywood execs who fancy themselves as a high-value traveler and book Delta One for the clout.

• Air India wants a lot of airplanes.
• Air Serbia and Qatar are dating, and we imagine Etihad is sad.
• Airlink was named the most punctual airline in South Africa, but the carrier’s representatives unfortunately were late to the ceremony honoring their achievement and did not get to accept their trophy.
• American is giving its flight attendants chili. Seriously. This reportedly had nothing to do with the “retirement” of Chief Customer Officer Alison Taylor.
• ANA will resume Tokyo/Narita – Perth flying with 3x weekly service next winter.
• British Airways is bringing its “Flying with Confidence” program to Australia to help nervous fliers adjust to being in the sky. Most of the course is showing the skittish passengers all the other airlines that offer better service, more comfortable seats, and a superior operation. Once they discover there are options beyond BA, the trepidation usually dissipates almost immediately.
• Cathay Pacific flight attendants are not happy.
• China Eastern raised a bunch of cash.
• Delta has a hankering for kiwi, announcing it will begin daily service from Los Angeles to Auckland on October 28. It’ll be Delta’s first foray into New Zealand, and make it the only U.S. carrier to fly to New Zealand from Los Angeles. It’s also increasing Atlanta – Tel Aviv to a daily frequency on April 16, and a third daily flight between New York/JFK to Paris beginning May 25. It’s also back in the basketball business in Salt Lake City.
• easyJet is resuming service from London/Southend this summer.
• Emirates is resuming daily, nonstop service to Hong Kong on March 29. It resumed 2x weekly to Shanghai yesterday, will increase Shanghai to 4x weekly on February 2, and go daily on March 1.
• Etihad is adding new service to Copenhagen and Düsseldorf.
• Flyr will begin operating chartr flights this summr.
• Greater Bay Airlines is eyeing the addition of as many as 22 aircraft. Spend one hour at a major airport and you could eye far more than just 22 airplanes.
• Iberia will close its deal with Air Europa by the end of this year, unless it doesn’t.
• Korean czeched its route map and decided to resume flying to Prague on March 27, marking its first flights to the city since the onset of the pandemic.
• Mango‘s sale has gone sour.
• Philippine Airlines crew were seen crying after being caught smuggling onions into the Philippines.
• Ryanair said it had a great start to the year.
• Spirit is offloading 29 of its 31 A319 aircraft to Gryphon Aviation Leasing, priced at $152 million to $201 million per aircraft. The leasing company also agreed to pay Sprit’s $399 “aircraft release fee” which it requires from anyone purchasing one of its airplanes. The last two A319s are leased and will go away in 2025.
• Sunwing will no longer just wing it out of Regina, as it elected to cancel the remainder of its winter flights due to what it’s calling “extenuating circumstances.” A source who asked to remain anonymous because they were not permitted to speak on the matter told Cranky the cancellations are due to a shortage of quality poutine at the airport.
• United opened an expanded flight attendant training center in Houston which can handle as many as 600 flight attendants per month.
• Virgin Atlantic was fined by the DOT for overflying Iraq on flights with a Delta flight number via the codeshare between the two carriers.
• Virgin Australia is possibly preparing for an IPO. It’s also possible it’s not.
• WestJet is upholding one of Canada’s greatest traditions — making it as difficult as possible for customers to get refunds for canceled flights.

I was in denial that my uncle was stealing from his job as a road worker.

But when I got to his house for dinner, all the signs were there.

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Ever since Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) took office in December 2018, it has been a wild and terrible ride for the country’s commercial aviation sector. The latest decision — to buy the remains of Mexicana and turn it into a government-run airline — could very well be the strangest of all. But it’s not clear if it’s actually any worse than the others.

Killing the New Mexico City AirportThe first decision was actually the result of a campaign promise. Mexico City’s primary airport was overburdened and a replacement was well underway. By November 2018, more than $5 billion had been spent and it was a third complete, as I wrote about at the time.

When AMLO took office, he shut the whole project down, leaving it to die. Instead, he had a grand plan to reform the old Santa Lucia Air Force base on the north side of town and create a messy regional airport strategy that no airline would ever want.

Since that time, the Felipe Ángeles International Airport has been born. It cost $4 billion according to official sources, but a media report says it ballooned to $5.6 billion. Combine that with the $5 billion already spent on the new Mexico City airport and the estimated $9 billion to scrap it, and you can see how this decision makes no sense at all for a globally-important city.

Airlines rushed into Felipe Ángeles. Oh wait, no they didn’t. Of course, they couldn’t ignore it, because the president backed it, so they had to make nice. Still, as Cirium data shows, service at the new airport is a fraction of the primary airport in town.

Departures by Month at Mexico City AirportsData via CiriumAeroméxico is the largest tenant with about 15 daily flights to Acapulco, Cancún, Guadalajara, Mérida, Monterrey, Oaxaca, Puerto Vallarta, and Veracruz. Volaris is next with less than 10 a day to Cancún, Guadalajara, Huatulco, La Paz, Mérida, Mexicali, Oaxaca, Puerto Vallarta, Puerto Escondido, San Jose del Cabo, and Tijuana. Viva Aerobus is in third with about 4 a day to Acapulco, Cancún, Monterrey, Oaxaca, Puerto Escondido, and Tijuana. It also has one of the only international flights to Havana.

The other international flights? The most notable is Copa with 3x weekly to Panama City, but there is also Conviasa with an occasional (maybe weekly?) flight to Caracas, and start-up Arajet with 4x weekly to Santo Domingo. That’s it.

This plan has not gone well. While there’s a ton of room up at the old air force base, Mexico City’s main airport remains saturated. Thanks to a near-accident in May, operations at Mexico City were reduced even further. This is in theory temporary, but the flight levels at MEX are indicative of just how much better it is for airlines than some far out air force base. And the cherry on top is that in the end, the best case scenario is that it didn’t save much money. More likely is that it will be even more costly than the original, superior plan.

Category 2 For LifeWe know MEX is full, so how to fix it? One great way to help reduce flying is to royally screw up your air traffic oversight. Problems with Mexico’s system led to the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgrading Mexico to a Category 2 IASA rating from the usual Category 1, meaning the country is found to not comply with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards.

What does this mean? Most importantly, Mexican airlines can continue to operate what they had been operating at the time of the change, but they are not able to add new routes and grow. That certainly helps keep a lid on traffic demand in Mexico City.

Further, this restricts a US airline from codesharing with an airline in a Category 2 country. That means Delta’s joint venture with Aeroméxico is a shell of what it could and should be, all because the country can’t get its act together.

AMLO says a Category 1 rating is coming back, but it has now been close to two years since the change happened in May 2021, and everyone is still waiting. Recent footage of terrorists shooting at an Aeroméxico airplane in Culiacán — not to mention the massive theft of copper wiring required to run MEX systems — have not helped instill confidence.

How do you distract from such systemic failures across the board within Mexico? You start a new airline, of course.

Mexicana Returns After a Long, Long TimeAMLO has a vision for how he thinks air travel should work in his country, and when he doesn’t get what he wants, he throws a tantrum. The tantrum this time has resulted in the decision to establish a new government-run airline.

This idea is bad enough on its face — it’s simply not needed — but AMLO’s plan is particularly terrible.

Instead of a clean-sheet plan, AMLO had the military purchase the remains of Mexicana for a little over $40 million. Mexicana hasn’t flown in over a decade — since 2010, to be specific — and has very little to its name. The purchase includes the ability to use the airline’s brand and a couple of buildings.

The beneficiary of this purchase is… the unions which were left holding the bag when Mexicana failed. They will get some money from the government and they will also undoubtedly have a prominent place in the new airline which will only make things less efficient and more expensive.

There is not room for two full-service airlines in Mexico, especially now that Volaris and Viva Aerobus have done such a good job of covering the country with low-fare options. Some may argue there isn’t room for even one full-service airline, but that’s at least debatable. Starting off with burdensome union agreements and nothing else shows that this airline isn’t going to be run to be an airline. It’s a jobs program.

What does this mean for the actual, functioning airlines of Mexico? It means non-rational competition in a market where it’s already tough to exist at all. Government policy has only made the situation worse, and AMLO does not seem to care. My condolences to everyone who works in the Mexican airline industry as well as to whoever is in charge of the Aeroméxico relationship at Delta. At least AMLO has less than 2 years left in the job.

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We are just a little over one month away from the 2023 Cranky Network Awards presented by Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport where we award the best in US/Canada airline network planning, and that means it’s time to announce the nominees!

It was a very different kind of year than last year as the recovery moves more into a forward-looking growth plan for most. We’ve changed some categories compared to last year because of that reality.

Once again, we’ve put together a video announcing the nominees, but we aren’t breaking it up into two posts this time. We’re just announcing everything all at once. There’s no reason to make you wait.

If you don’t like my slick video editing skills, or you can’t listen to the CNA theme music without getting overexcited for the main event on Feb 23, here are the nominees in print.

Sexiest New Route – Short-Haul* Miami – Tortola on American * Nashville – Steamboat Springs on Southwest * New York/JFK – Pereira on Avianca * Palm Springs – Santa Rosa on Avelo * London (Ontario) – Tucson on Flair

Sexiest New Route – Long-Haul* Atlanta – Cape Town on Delta * DFW – Melbourne on Qantas * Honolulu – Raratonga on Hawaiian * Seattle – Papeete on Air Tahiti Nui * Newark – Malaga on United

Calculated Risk Award presented by Embraer* JetBlue acquisition of Spirit * Sun Country refocuses on Minneapolis * Allegiant slows expansion * Porter’s E2 move * American and Mesa break up

Most Clever Flight Number* United 163 Dubai – Newark * United 769 Chicago/O’Hare – Barcelona * Flair 1849 Vancouver – San Francisco * Sun Country 1818 Omaha – Minneapolis * Qantas 22 DFW – Melbourne

Best Aircraft-Enabled Opportunity* Sacramento – Toronto on Air Canada * Westchester – Los Angeles on Breeze * Miami – Ocho Rios on American * Newark – Göteborg on SAS * Detroit – Keflavik on Icelandair

Most Promising New Partnership presented by Pittsburgh International Airport* United and Emirates * WestJet and Government of Alberta * Flair and Tucson * JetBlue and Spirit * Alaska and Air Tahiti Nui

Best Airport Partner* Louisville International Airport * San Diego International Airport * Tulsa International Airport * Asheville Regional Airport * Edmonton International Airport

Regional Apocalypse Survivor Award presented by Landline* American Airlines * Delta Air Lines * United Airlines * Alaska Airlines * Air Canada

Most Improved Network presented by Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport* Sun Country (Minneapolis moves) * WestJet (Refocusing on Calgary) * Breeze (A220 network rollout) * Frontier (Shift into bigger markets) * Spirit (Adding small market breadth)

There are four more categories that do not have nominees but rather have a pre-ordained winner. In the past, we’ve announced what was winning for each of those categories, but we aren’t doing that this year. The winners have already been notified, but we thought it’d add a little more excitement into the awards if we held that back. Those categories are:

• Kingsford Smith Southern Cross Award presented by Oakland International Airport – honoring achievement over the Pacific
• Matchmaker Award – honoring the best catalyst for a new partnership
• Route Victory Award – honoring a single route’s success
• Network Victory Award presented by Boeing – honoring a larger successful network achievement

Curious what some of these categories mean exactly? Wondering what some of those flight numbers are? We’ll talk about it more on a Cranky Talk podcast coming later this week.

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The email last week came as a surprise. I was invited along with three others to chat with Southwest CEO Bob Jordan about the airline’s failures during the holidays. Considering Southwest had been very quiet throughout the meltdown, I was pleased to finally — emphasis on “finally” — see the airline putting itself out there, assuming more small calls like this were being arranged with others. What I learned is that Southwest isn’t willing to say it knows exactly what went wrong just yet, but it has a basic idea and will be working with consultants to reconstruct its failures quickly.

Bob did not mince words in understanding the impact of this event. He repeatedly talked about how the airline “messed up” and how it couldn’t do that again. That sounds easy to say, but not every company would admit it.

What’s harder to say is exactly what happened and how the airline could make sure it wouldn’t happen again. Bob spoke for 20 minutes and then the four of us were each allowed to ask one question. I asked Bob if he’d comment on the SWAPA union’s detailed dive into what it says went wrong. He wouldn’t, saying it was too early to know everything. He started to say he was sure that some of it was right and some was not, but he stopped himself saying he didn’t even know that. The airline wants to do a full autopsy before commenting, but it is finally at least speaking about what it does know.

SWAPA’s piece was detailed and full of conclusions immediately after the event. It had plenty of grenades to throw at management… which is one of the reasons I tend to discount union communications. There’s always some kind of negotiating motive behind them. That’s not to say that what comes out is always wrong, but it’s important to always keep the source in mind. Without question, comparing what the union had to say and what Bob had to say gave me a better sense of what happened.

Though Southwest will admit to having some idea of the problem, it believes that there is more to uncover. The airline has contracted with Oliver Wyman — where, it should be noted, COO Andrew Watterson worked for a dozen years — to do a full reconstruction and review of the mess. Though I have a general disdain for using consultants, this is actually a use I support. It’s a specific, limited task that could benefit from an outside perspective. Bob said this will not take months and will happen quickly. I really hope that’s the case, because the airline seems to want to reserve full judgment until this is done, and that just can’t keep waiting forever.

Fortunately, Bob didn’t just completely defer to this review before commenting on what happened. Here’s what everyone seems to agree on so far.

The Storm was BadThe storm that rolled throgh on December 22 was very cold, very windy, and problematic in many ways. According to Bob, “we saw things that we just have never seen before with the temperatures. You had jetways that froze, you had deicing fluid that froze. You had aircraft that had ice on the engines in the morning.”

One of the questions I’ve had along with many others is why this was so much worse for Southwest than it was for, say, United which has hubs in Chicago and Denver. There has been talk about network design and all that, but one of Bob’s comments about the storm grabbed my attention. He said, “we had crosswinds that shut us down in Chicago for awhile.”

A look a historical wind data for Chicago shows that starting just after noon, the winds started to ramp up with gusts consistently in the mid-30 kt range. The wind was coming out of the WNW for most of this time, which is just slightly north of due west.

At O’Hare, where United has its hub, the six primary runways are all now east-west oriented which meant there was very little crosswind component. Midway’s runways that would have been in use run NW and depending upon the actual wind degree, would have faced a much greater impact. Little bits of bad luck like that can add up quickly to snarl the operation for one airline and not another.

Overwhelming the NOCSouthwest’s network operations control (NOC) is the operational heart of the airline. As the mess progressed, this drove what Bob called “an historic level of work into the NOC” to get the aircraft in place. And that turned into another “historic” level of work on crew re-scheduling.

Bob made it clear that the technology did not fail. Instead, it just wasn’t up to the task to be able to deal with the crushing amount of work that it needed to do. I liken it to shoveling in a driving snowstorm where just as you clear the snow, another layer falls on top, creating more work and you never get fully caught up. (Keep in mind I live in Southern California, so my metaphor may be woefully inaccurate.)

Cancellation upon cancellation happened close-in, and the tool that SWAPA referred to as SkySolver in its note — now apparently called GE Crew Optimization according to Bob — is meant to be able to run solutions to re-crew future flights. The key word here is “future,” because if there are problems in the past that haven’t been solved, Crew Optimization can’t handle it. And Southwest had many close-in cancels that Crew Optimization couldn’t touch.

Because of this, Southwest needed to bring in an army of people to manually solve all those previous problems, which could then be fed into Crew Optimization to create future assignments. But… there was no manual workforce available to actually deal with this, so Southwest quickly trained up over 100 employees in other functions to be able to work the issues and get good data into Crew Optimization so it could do its job. The airline then cleared out two-thirds of its schedule so that it could get all the pieces in place over a three day period, ready to restart on Friday, December 30.

If this sounds crazy, it is. There needs to be software to handle past problems, and… there is. Bob says that there is a release of Crew Optimization that the airline will start testing this week that will actually solve past problems. I followed up with Southwest to understand whether this is an actual new release or it’s just new to Southwest, and a spokesperson told me “we are working with GE on an update to the software that is tailored to our needs. It wasn’t previously available….”

Begging Customers to ReturnOnce the operation was up and running again, Southwest turned to figuring out how to deal with the hordes of rightfully-angry customers. As we all know by now, the airline put out vague guidelines that it would process refunds quickly, offer reimbursements, and then it pushed out a 25,000 point bonus to everyone stuck in the mess.

The communications were chaotic at best, and if I’d been given a second question I would have asked Bob if he was pleased with how communications were handled and if not, what he would have changed. Unfortunately, I didn’t have that opportunity. What I do know is that now that this is over, at least customer compensation has been humming along quickly.

Bob says they’ve processed 93 percent of refunds, turning them around within 3 days,. The remaining refunds are those which have come in during the previous three days, so it’s a quick turnaround. Reimbursements for expenses are tougher because they involve reviewing receipts through a more manual process. But Bob says Southwest is now processing 30,000 of those requests a day.

The 25,000 points were deposited almost immediately, and while Bob couldn’t give specifics with earnings coming up soon, he did say that many of the points handed out have already been redeemed, so people are coming back. Of course, this is nearly free travel we’re talking about, so it’s not a surprise. But for Southwest, it just wants to get people back on board any way it can.

The airline has also returned all but one percent of the mountain of bags that were stuck during the event, and what remains are the really hard ones with no tag or no address.

In other words, it sounds like Southwest is doing what it can on the customer side now that the deed is done, but how does it make sure this whole trainwreck doesn’t happen again? On the one hand, Bob really wants to wait for that Oliver Wyman report to come out, but on the other, he knows there are things that don’t need to wait.

What Southwest is Putting in Place TodayHere is what Bob outlined as already being part of the plan to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Until the Oliver Wyman report is done, consider this a partial list.

• Improving the internal “advanced warning dashboard” to include more metrics like number of open crew lines so they can get a better sense of when something bad is happening.
• Keep this new temporary workforce they built to manually process crew schedule changes. They activated 25 of them during the FA A NOTAM outage but they didn’t need them. At least they’re more ready to deal with disruption considering the seemingly-inadequate system they have in place.
• Moving forward on implementing the new release of Crew Optimization that will allow the system to process past problems
• Looking at every process top to bottom, for example, found they didn’t have enough engine covers in the outstations, so they’ll fix that.
• Doing a full deicing review, because it was bad. Denver they use open baskets because it gives better visibility but when it’s cold, that isn’t worth it since frostbite concerns require much more frequent breaks and reduce productivity.
• The Board of Directors has set up an Operations Review Committee, which seems like something it should have done after one of the many previous failures. I don’t see how this is going to help do anything except cover the board’s asses.

Some things are harder to fix than others. For example, we heard all about how Southwest had to manually call crews to get them reassigned. But Bob explained, “we have automatic notifcation in place [but] it takes a contractual change, I believe to require acknolwedgement.” I followed up and asked for clarification on exactly what contract is the issue, and a spokesperson explained “the collective bargaining agreements for Pilots and Flight Attendants contain scheduling rules that, if altered, would require negotiation with those respective unions.”

It is somewhat frustrating to not have more answers, but at least the initial steps seem to make sense based on what we publicly know so far. And regardless of what happens in the Oliver Wyman report, Bob said, “I can’t imagine we don’t boost our [technology] investment based on what we find.” He spent time defending what Southwest spends on tech today, but it sounds like he has an appetite for more.

Could this result in bigger changes around the airline? It’s possible, but I’m guessing probably not. In response to a question about whether a network rework should be considered, Bob left us with this.

I don’t think it’s the network. But there could be things about how we flow crews or how we assign crews or how we schedule trips… you know, those kinds of things.

Just how much Southwest changes because of this remains to be seen.

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FAA’s Turn to Go Off the RailsLate Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the FAA grounded most domestic flights due to a system outage when its Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) system — which relays essential information to pilots — went down. The system keeps pilots in-the-know for crucial, potentially life-saving information on their route and at their destination, such as which Starbucks at their arrival airport has the shortest line, the last time the restroom nearest their arrival gate has been serviced, and whether or not the airport has a Chick-Fil-A.

The FAA first announced the issue just before 7 a.m. ET with a tweet that operations across the country were “affected.” Military and medevac flights were exempt from the shutdown, along with flights that were already in the air. The first two airports to return to service were Atlanta and Newark, with service resuming at a slow trickle shortly after 8 a.m. The full system was restored by about 9:30, but the damage across the system was done.

By 6 p.m. Wednesday night, about 1,300 flights had been cancelled and almost 10,000 delays or as Newark calls it, “Wednesday.” For more on the NOTAM outage, check out Thursday’s post at CrankyFlier.com.

JetBlue Adds New Routes, Grows Northeast AllianceJetBlue Airways announced several new routes from Northeast Alliance cities New York and Boston today while also providing more details on previously announced new service and adding one new destination from LAX.

From LGA, JetBlue will operate 4x daily service to Atlanta, beginning May 5. Two other seasonal routes will also debut from LaGuardia on May 5, to Bermuda and Hyannis with daily, year-round flights to Nassau beginning March 30. Newark gets two new destinations, daily summer-only flights to Montego Bay, and Saturday-only minty fresh service featuring JetBlue’s premium cabin to Aruba. Both EWR destinations begin June 15.

Straight outta Boston, the airline announced more details for its previously announced new service to Vancouver — daily, summer-only flights will begin June 15. The westbound flight leaves Boston at 5:40 p.m. and arrives at YVR at 9:07p.m. The plane sits in Vancouver for just an hour, before returning to Boston as a redeye, arriving the next morning at 6:27.

Outside of the NEA, JetBlue is also adding a new destination from Los Angeles, once-daily, year-round flights to Puerto Vallarta, a market served by only 5 other airlines so this should do great. This gives the carrier 20 nonstop destinations from LAX with more than 40 daily departures.

Spirit Pilots Agree to Spirited New ContractSpirit Airlines pilots approved a new two-year contract which its union says included $463 million worth of gains for its members. Wages will increase an average of 34% of the two-year deal, with 25% raises for captains and 43% for first officers.

The raises will be funded in-part by a new $9 pilot-enhancement fee included on all Spirit fares for the next two years, while any shortfall in revenue will be covered by JetBlue in the form of 12-packs of Lifesaver Mints.

Of the 2,326 Spirit pilots who paid their $19 CBA voting fee to the airline, a very nice 69% voted in favor of the new deal. The contract is subject to renegotiation if Spirit’s deal with JetBlue falls through, if the carrier runs out of yellow paint for its airplanes, or if a majority of pilots can convince it to install Big Front Seats in the flight deck.

Boeing’s Posts Best Year Since 2018, Still Trails Airbus

Boeing had its best year since 2018 but still failed to top its chief rival Airbus for orders and deliveries in 2022. Boeing took orders in December to net more than 200 airplanes for the month, giving it 774 orders and 480 deliveries to close the year. Airbus wrapped up 2022 with 820 planes ordered and 661 delivered.

Airbus has outshined Boeing since before the pandemic in 2018, as its A320 family is outdoing the B737. Airbus has also done well with its A220 series since taking it over from Bombardier. Boeing did outperform Airbus on widebody orders, as Airbus ended up a net negative for the year in the category, receiving more cancellations than new sales.

Boeing’s total of 774 net orders for the year was a significant increase from 479 orders a year ago, and especially from 2020 when it ended up a net negative, losing 471 orders more than it gained. Of its 69 deliveries in December, 53 were MAXs, 18 of which went to Southwest. The planes were scheduled to go to other carriers first, but Southwest paid an extra $29 per aircraft to receive early access to them.

Canada Gets into the NOTAM Outage Game, TooThe Canadian government said its own NOTAM outage had nothing to do with what happened south of the border earlier that morning, which might be true…but also might not. The US’s grounding caused a ripple effect in Canada, with all Canadian-bound flights being held at their origin for several hours early in the day.

Two hours after the FAA said its NOTAM system had been restored Wednesday morning, Nav Canada said “we got next.” It’s NOTAM entry system went down at about 10:20 a.m. ET and was out for about three hours before bring brought back online at about 1:15 p.m.

NAV Canada says no flights were delayed because of its issue, which it says was a hardware failure. Despite the claim that no flights were affected, NAV Canada officials were spotted at Canadian airports handing out poutine, shot glasses of maple syrup, and a 2006 DVD box set of “NHL’s Greatest Moments” to anxious passengers.

• Aeroflot bought 10 B777 aircraft from a Russian bank. Nothing about this transaction is remotely shady.
• Air Astana reached a resolution in its suit against Embraer on issues the carrier had with the E190-E2. Details of the agreement were not released, but are believed to include Embraer offering Air Astana staff a free night’s dinner at Fogo de Chao at the Mall of America.
• Air Canada EVP and Chief Commercial Officer Lucie Guillemette announced her retirement. She’s expected to spend retirement playing shuffleboard at Del Boca Vista.
• Air China is resuming service to both Sydney and Melbourne from Beijing.
• Alaska is hiring. Email dave@crankyconcierge.com for resume advice.
• American plans to spend much of the next several months counting all its money.
• Austrian Airlines is bringing back flying chefs. It’s unclear what the flying chefs will be doing on an airplane and whether or not it’s against their will.
• Bavarian Airlines is a thing now, and it expects to lease 12 E195-E2s to launch from its Munich base by the end of this year. When asked to comment on its new competition, Lufthansa referred us to company spokesman Ivan Drago.
• Biman Bangladesh Airlines said it has plans to become a “smart airline” which begs the question if this means it’s been a “dumb airline” all these years.
• British Airways is upgrading its B787 Dreamliner business class to Club Suites
• Brussels Airlines paid the Belgian government with help from its daddy Lufthansa.
• Cathay Pacific is reopening its lounge in Singapore.
• Croatia Airlines is delaying repayment of a €33 million loan to the Croatian government.
• Delta employees and their family and friends flying on non-revenue travel will now be allowed to wait at the gate for their flight while enjoying terminal eateries and bars.
• Eastar Jet was acquired by Korean private equity fund VIG Partners. Hated-rival WestJet did not comment.
• Eastern Airlines has its first B777-200(ER) in the mix.
• easyJet made the easy decision to open a maintenance hangar in Berlin.
• Ethiopian will begin 4x weekly service to Atlanta on May 16, giving Delta just enough time to find some airplanes to launch its own flight.
• EVA is launching new service to the Philippines for the first time in foreva, adding flights from Taipei to Manila’s alternate Clark International Airport located approximately 50 miles from MNL.
• Emirates is adding high-speed internet access on 50 new A350s.
• flybe released its summer 2023 schedule. Click the link if that interests you.
• Lufthansa will begin flying its Dreamliners from Frankfurt to Detroit on February 13. It also still plans to purchase ITA from the Italian government. Probably.
• Mexicana, an airline that hasn’t operated since 2010, had its carcass purchased by the Mexican government with the intention of starting a military-operated commercial carrier using the Mexicana brand. This seems guaranteed to work without a hitch.
• PLAY is no longer messing around, adding new service from Reykjavik to Hamilton, ON.
• Rex sold a 5.25% stake in the airline to Houston-based Perea Capital, LLC.
• SAS told the Swiss treasury to stick it.
• United is bringing back the ice cream sundae cart in Polaris business.
• Vietjet is adding flights between Ho Chi Minh and Melbourne.
• Wizz Air is closing three bases.

Being a human cannonball must be the most stressful job there is.

You have to worry every day about getting fired.

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Is there any chance we could just get through one damn week without some travel-disrupting failure? No? I suppose it’s too much to ask. Of course, the irony of this week’s failure by a key Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) system is just a little too delicious to ignore. If the FAA wants to make a bold move, it should offer to pay for all the disruptions people experienced today. It won’t.

There is a system that publishes NOTAMs — or NOtices To Air Missions (formerly NOtices To AirMen, but apparently other AirPeople and AirAutonomousVehicles now get notices as well) — and those must be reviewed before any flight. This provides crucial updates about issues at airfields, and you can look them up yourself if you’d like.

Some of the updates are pretty mundane. For example, I just looked at Long Beach and this has apparently been an issue since December 23:

!LGB 12/115 LGB TWY L NO ENTRY SIGN BTN TWY L2 AND TWY L3 MISSING 2212231522-2301271415

Yep, a sign is missing. But sometimes they’re more important, like this one from LaGuardia which talks about a taxiway closure that was set to last for half of yesterday.

!LGA 01/074 (KLGA A0149/23) LGA TWY F BTN TWY BB AND TWY D CLSD 2301111250-2301112000

Or how about Santa Barbara which still has runway closure issues, presumably from flooding.

!SBA 01/079 (KSBA A0141/23) SBA RWY 15L/33R CLSD 2301112150-2301121400

!SBA 01/078 (KSBA A0140/23) SBA RWY 15R/33L CLSD 2301112150-2301121400

NOTAMs can be used for just about everything, and I don’t just mean something on the ground. They can impact approaches, departure paths, etc. And when I say EVERYTHING, I mean it. Here are some of the odder ones that have been noted. And here is one that should be filed.

In short, this is how airports notify aircraft what kind of restrictions or issues might exist. It is a key component in ensuring safety, so if you can’t get access to these NOTAMs, you aren’t flying.

NOTAMs that get issued do have a shelf life, so when the FAA system that puts out these NOTAMs failed yesterday, it didn’t require all traffic to just stop. The problem arose when those NOTAMs started to expire, and new ones weren’t available because the system failed. That meant by this morning, traffic ground to a halt until the system could be restored.

Lucky for the airlines, the worst of this happened overnight, but I can assure you that anyone working in operations planning did not get much sleep as they planned for the worst and hoped for the best. I’d say the end result was somewhere in between.

According to these spartan statements out of the FAA, at 7:15am ET, things were getting ugly enough that they had to issue a ground stop for all domestic departures until 9am. Some flying was able to resume at 8:15am in Atlanta and Newark where things were worse than elsewhere. At 8:50am, the ground stop was lifted and operations started returning to normal but the damage was done.

When I looked at around 3:45pm ET yesterday, Flightaware was showing about 1,250 flights canceled and another 8,000 or so delayed. Compare that to the previous day which had less than 200 flights canceled and about 4,500 delayed for the entire day. The FAA failure snarled the system.

Nobody can miss the irony in all this. Transportation Secretary Buttigieg was quick to jump on Southwest for its failures, and even posted this on Twitter yesterday saying DOT would “continue to hold Southwest to its responsibility.”

Our department will continue to hold Southwest to its responsibility to take care of customers affected by holiday travel disruptions.

We will enforce their responsibility to refund flight tickets and reimburse for alternate & ground transport, baggage costs, meals & hotels.

— Secretary Pete Buttigieg (@SecretaryPete) January 10, 2023

That’s great. Keep doing that. But who should be responsible when it’s the FAA that causes all those cancellations and delays? It should be the federal government. If Buttigieg wants to make a strong statement in support of travelers, he should announce that the government will take care of all expenses since it was the government’s fault they occurred.

This would send an important message that DOT can not only talk the talk, but it can also walk the walk. Doing this would show it is serious about taking care of travelers and not just penalizing airlines. I don’t mind at all that DOT has put a ton of pressure on Southwest. Good. But for the government to avoid undermining its message, it should put its money where its mouth is.

It’s easy to say that, but exactly how does the money get divided up? If a flight is canceled, the airline is responsible for refunding the ticket. Should DOT reimburse the airlines for that cost? There are questions to be answered, but these are not unsolvable issues.

Buttigieg, to his credit, has been very present and has even put a video out on Twitter. Good. But communication is only half the battle. Let’s see DOT actually step up and show it’s serious. It’s too bad that won’t happen.

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Delta has really enjoyed making a splash at the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas over the years, and this year it returned with a bang. The highlight announcement was free wifi for all*, but there’s a lot more than that under the name Delta Sync. This has the potential to be a huge moneymaker for Delta down the line with promotional partnerships all based on your valuable data.

The basic announcement of free wifi is something that Delta has foreshadowed for years. It has long publicly said that it wanted to make wifi free for everyone, but it needed to have enough bandwidth to support the higher usage that would come with the benefit. That on its face is very true, and apparently it has now reached the point of inflection.

JetBlue showed several years ago that the right provider with the right amount of bandwidth could make free wifi a reality. The Blue Crew has been doing it for a long time, though it’s a lot easier when you’re an airline as small as JetBlue compared to the behemoth that is Delta. But as satellites kept getting launched and Delta started working with Viasat to get that same fast wifi, it started to open the door to this happening. It will now turn on February 1 on much of the mainline domestic fleet. Regional and international are said to follow by the end of 2024.

On the surface, this all sounds like a massive expense for Delta, and that is how the airline wants you to think about it. This is a generous offering from a premium airline, and you should spend your premium dollars to fly said airline. But this is not just about Delta throwing money out there magnanimously. This is about turning free wifi into a moneymaker through partnerships.

The free wifi itself is being sponsored by T-Mobile, so that’s partnership number one. And in case you were wondering if your data is involved in getting T-Mobile interested, it has to be. A Delta spokesperson tells me that people want more personalizing, and so they’re giving it to them. That being said…

Most importantly, with all of our personalization touchpoints we are providing choice. If a customer would like to opt-out of free Wi-Fi and Delta Sync, customers will still have the option to purchase Wi-Fi during their flight.

It’s hard to imagine why anyone would want to opt out unless they were concerned about what would happen with their data. I’m pleased that Delta is offering the ability to opt out, though I imagine very few will. Nobody reads the terms and conditions, though if anyone does, Delta assures me it will abide by all laws, etc, as you’d expect. Only a few will trade cash for privacy.

Once people opt into free wifi, it will be the base on which the Delta Sync system can help Delta to… keep climbing? Is it still using that tagline? Maybe the new tagline should be”if you want to keep climbing, you have to sync.” Go ahead and use that one, Delta, it’s a freebie.

Back to the point, Delta Sync is a “new platform of digital services and experiences that will personalize the travel journey for our customers,” according to Delta.

Everything in Delta Sync — including access to free wifi itself — requires that you have a SkyMiles account. This is what will really open up the revenue opportunities for Delta since it can tie your behavior throughout your journey to a single user, especially with the Delta Sync Exclusives Hub. So far, here’s what is, or will soon be, under the umbrella:

• Free wifi access on eligible aircraft, sponsored by T-Mobile
• Special “curated” offers from American Express
• Free streaming from Paramount+ (and an offer for new subscribers to sign up)
• Dining guides and restaurant reservations from Resy
• “Curated” travel recommendations from Atlas Obscura
• Free access to New York Times games

Beyond this, Delta Sync will include the ability to order food and beverage directly in the system for First Class passengers and use facial matching to check-in, go through security, and board (currently in Atlanta and Detroit). It is, as Delta says, a way to create a more personalized experience.

The flip side of that, of course, is that it makes it easy for Delta to gather a bunch of data from you and monetize it with its partners. This isn’t a secret. When you go to sign up for a Delta SkyMiles account, the first line of mice type at the bottom says:

By creating a SkyMiles account and when subscribing to email services, you consent to sharing your information with SkyMiles and Promotional Partners in accordance with Delta’s Privacy Policy.

And what does that privacy policy say? (The emphasis below is mine.)

Now, I don’t know what you’ll have to opt into when you go into the Exclusives Hub, so I can’t be sure what exact data they’ll share. But by tying everything into the SkyMiles number, there will be a lot of data on you that they collect. And that data is valuable to marketers. (Note that the privacy policy says you can opt out, but I found it exceedingly difficult to do when I tried, and I’m not even sure I was successful in the end.)

If you’ve ever seen a line snaking out the Delta SkyClub, you know just how powerful the Delta/Amex partnership is for the airline. When the partnership was renewed in 2019, it was expected to reach a$7 billion annual benefit for Delta by the end of this year. That is a low estimate.

While Delta will never recreate something as lucrative as the Amex deal, it doesn’t need to. It can work with all of these brands that are starting off the Delta Sync program and likely make some good money doing it.

So don’t feel bad for Delta having spent all that money to offer free wifi to you. Just getting you to sign up for a SkyMiles account is all the airline needs to start making that money back.

*It’s not really for all, as I explain in the post

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, direct, or wherever you get your podcasts.You didn’t think last week’s post about the Southwest holiday trouble would be the only one, did you? There’s a lot to catch up on, so Dave and I devoted this week’s Cranky Talk to talking more about what happened. Dave even flew Southwest over the holidays…. but he had nothing useful to share about that.

See, Dave got lucky and booked his trip to leave on the day that Southwest got back to normal. Many others were obviously not quite so lucky, but then again, they now have 25,000 Rapid Rewards points for free and Dave does not.

Email Dave here to tell him how glad you are he avoided all the terribleness.

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Southwest Offers 25k Rapid Rewards Points as Customer Service Recovery Begins Southwest Airlines offered 25,000 Rapid Rewards points – valued by the carrier at about $300 until the next devaluation – as an apology to customers whose flights were canceled or significantly delayed between December 24 and January 2, or as Southwest executives call it: Hell Week.

The 25,000 points will arrive in customer inboxes far more quickly than reimbursements for other flighs and incidental expenses that Southwest said it would cover. The carrier is having to manually go through receipts sent by customers, plenty of which are likely erroneous or an attempt to score extra money from the beleaguered airline, causing a slow down for those seeking reasonable and actual expenses. Customers awaiting their refund can pay $20 for EarlyRefund to skip to the head of the line and have their receipt looked at more quickly.

Southwest’s Q4 financials are expected to take a significant hit when it’s all said and done, with one Bank of America analyst saying the ordeal could cost the carrier as much as $700 million. Southwest’s Q4 adjusted earnings forecast was adjusted from $0.85 per share down to just $0.37, while the price of EarlyBird access on a flight from Chicago/Midway to Dallas/Love mysteriously jumped from $19 to $5,600.

A Free for All: Delta Wi-Fi to be Free for AllDelta Air Lines announced today it will offer free Wi-Fi on domestic flights that have Viasat installed as the wireless provider, which covers about 80% of its domestic fleet. The carrier will not restrict the number of devices to connect but will require a SkyMiles number – and it plans to require Basic Economy passengers to watch a 45-minute loop on YouTube of nails scratching a chalkboard to access the web.

The free connectivity will not be offered on Delta’s A220 and B717 fleet, plus any widebodies that normally operate international routes. It does expect to expand the free offering to regional aircraft and international widebodies by the end of next year – or when there’s a Speaker of the House – whichever comes first.

This wifi plan enables the creation of Delta Sync which will personalize various parts of the travel experience. That will be rolled out during 2023. The exact date seems to be unclear, but we assume it will be August 29 to commemorate the 26th anniversary of Skynet becoming self-aware.

California Flight Attendants May Not Be in California for Long

Last summer, the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal from Alaska Airlines on a case in which California-based flight attendants for the carrier won a class action suit that the carrier was not in compliance with California labor law. The FAs successfully claimed they were entitled to an uninterrupted 30-minute meal break under the law, but without foreseeing the potential consequences of their victory.

Alaska Airlines argued the law didn’t apply to flight attendants because they were governed by the federal Railroad Act which superseded the California law. Now their chickens have come home to roost, with Alaska and other airlines floating the idea of closing California employee bases to escape the California law. The Association of Flight Attendants admits that their earlier victory could lead to “unintended consequences,” and is seeking a legislative fix that will keep bargaining power in the hand of its members while giving airlines a way out of the regulation. Square peg, meet round hole.

California State Senator Dave Cortese presented SB-41 which would exempt flight attendants from the rest and meal-break rules – provided they are covered by a collective bargaining agreement which does that for them – or you know, back to how it was. Stay tuned to Cranky Network Weekly to see how this clown show resolves itself.

AA Pilots BAAlk at Cockpit ChangeAmerican Airlines implemented new procedures for pilots this week aimed at improving safety including changes to communication in the cockpit during certain events such as a low visibility landing.

The pilots, through their union are taking issue with how AA is implementing the changes, while not necessarily taking issue with the new policy itself. The Allied Pilots Association, which represents the roughly 15,000 pilots of AA says the carrier sent a 35-page bulletin to pilots, expecting that to be sufficient training. APA spokesman Dennis Tajer told Forbes “A reading assignment is not training,” which, well, he’s got a point.

One pilot faced discipline after delaying a flight scheduled to depart Charlotte while “ensuring he and his crew were fully briefed and in compliance with the new requirements,” in an attempt to force management to blink. The pilot was eventually removed from the flight and replaced with someone who supposedly was a faster reader.

United and Mesa Begin to Define Their Relationship

Following Mesa’s ugly — and very public — breAAkup last month, the regional carrier is moving forward with United as the two look at how their new exclusive partnership might look going forward.

In order to comply with United’s collective bargaining agreement with its pilots that limits the number and size of regional aircraft that can fly the United Express banner, Mesa will swap 38 E175s for 38 of their own CRJ900s. The CRJ900s will initially be based at United’s hubs in Denver and Houston/IAH, while Mesa will keep its crew and maintenance bases in Dallas/Fort Worth, El Paso, Louisville and Phoenix.

United and Mesa also recently completed a $41.2 million liquidity facility for the regional carrier, coming after Mesa posted a loss of $183 million for the fiscal year ending September 30. Most of the loss came from long distance phone charges to several DFW area codes and an expensive bill to purchase several URLs including AAsux.com, theydidntfireuswequit.com, and unitedisbetterlookinganyway.com.

• Advanced Air is stepping in and adding service on the wildly underserved market between Albuquerque and Las Cruces, NM. The 1x daily service, beginning January 16, will make the first commercial service into Las Cruces in almost 20 years.
• Aeroflot purchased ten B777 aircraft which were stranded in Russia.
• Aerolíneas Argentinas confirmed via fax that it is adding B737-800 freighters early this year.
• Air Belgium scooped up €10 million in loans.
• Air China will resume Beijing – Los Angeles this Sunday, with it becoming daily on January 18. JFK service resumes on January 18, San Francisco on March 1, and Washington/Dulles on March 2.
• ANA and JAL are both offering greener flight options which will excite some people.
• Bamboo will status match from basically any airlines if you’re looking to boost your chance of an upgrade flying domestically within Vietnam.
• Etihad will operate twice-weekly flights to Shanghai beginning next month. It also completed the slot swap heard ’round the world with JetBlue. To see what JetBlue is doing with the slot, keep reading.
• Garuda Indonesia saw its share trading ban lifted by the Indonesia stock exchange.
• GetJet Airlines got an opportunity to return to Canada, as it swooped in to offer a wet-lease aircraft operated on behalf of Swoop.
• Hawaiian said aloha to two new B787 Dreamliners, bringing its firm order of the Dreamliner to 12.
• ITA plans to begin putting its A320neo fleet into service later this month provided the carrier doesn’t lose the keys to start the airplanes.
• JetBlue is putting an extra flight on its NYC-London service, adding a daytime flight that departs New York/JFK at 8:30 a.m. and arrive at London/Heathrow at 8:45 p.m. The service, which is coupled with a daytime return flight leaving LHR at 8:25am and arriving JFK at 11:40am (the two planes will pass somewhere in the Atlantic where the two captains will reach out and high five each other per company protocol) will begin on March 26. JetBlue is definitely adding the extra daily flight because ~~American told it to~~ it thinks it’s a good idea.
• Lion Air Group looks to roar into the new year with 80 new aircraft. Also it might not.
• PIA‘s ban to operate in the EU could be lifted — provided the carrier can prove it has actual pilots operating its airplanes.
• PLAY will be goofing around in Denmark this summer, adding three new destinations in the country in addition to new service to Düsseldorf .
• Ryanair boosted its expected fiscal outlook for the year ending March 31 after a profitable holiday season in which the carrier found no coal in its stocking.
• TUI is wet-leasing a B787-9 Dreamliner this summer from TUI fly nordic, which seems like some sort of tax scam.
• Uganda Airlines is considering a tech stop for its flights to London due to shaky security protocols at its Entebbe (EBB) base.

What’s the current leading cause of dry skin?

Towels

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I’m back from exile, and man am I glad nothing big happened while I was gone. Oh wait, that massive Southwest opreational failure? I suppose we should talk about that.

Granted, I was watching more from a distance during my break, but most of the media coverage I saw of this was pretty awful. There were a lot of potentially false assumptions and tying of things together that had no business being mentioned in the same article — like the cancellations due to the FAA computer failure in Florida somehow being tied back to Southwest’s troubles. Please. Today I’m not going to look backwards too much, though I do hope to do that in a future post. Instead, let’s talk about why this is a good thing.

I know, I know, the headline seems clickbait-y, but I really do mean it sincerely. I expect a whole lot of good to come out of this, but then again that could just be wishful thinking. Now that we have a little time behind this mess, hopefully we can put away the pitch forks and actually look at this rationally.

Southwest Blew ItYes, this was bad. I have no need to rehash what happened in great detail, because you’ve read that part everywhere. While much of what you’ve read may not have been entirely accurate, I don’t have enough first-hand knowledge gathered at this point to do better. And when that happens, I’d rather just not write. What a novel concept. But try to throw aside union hot takes and narratives from freaked-out travelers if you can. There are a couple of things I want to mention here.

In short, Southwest saw a nasty storm coming and pre-canceled a bunch of flights. Even that couldn’t prepare for issue after issue that plagued the airline, ranging from frozen hydraulics at Midway to unexpected fog in San Diego. Flights were already jam-packed for the holidays and there was no room to spare, but then, the wheels just fell off.

Why this turned into a meltdown instead of just a bad couple of days is where the gaps lie in my knowledge right now. But it does seem to follow the time-honored tradition created by other airlines over the years. The airline’s systems couldn’t keep up, especially on the crew side of the house, and there was no easy way back to normal. After trying to fix the airline from a running start, Southwest learned what all airlines learn… you have to shut it down and reboot.

But for Southwest, it actually — somewhat impressively when considered in a vacuum — was able to restart the airline by operating a third of its operation from the day after Christmas through the Thursday before New Years. It closed out space for sale on all flights after Christmas and basically froze the airline.

This was unquestionably an unmitigated disaster for holiday travelers, but as always, it will be forgotten. These incidents never have lasting long-term impacts despite what people say in the short run. Southwest still has enough goodwill — somewhat shockingly considering how often this has happened lately — to recover just fine. So if we assume that management’s failures on the customer and communications side of the house won’t have a lasting impact, what will be the legacy of this mess other than a nine-figure bill for reimbursing expenses and doling out Rapid Rewards points?

Management Has a Blank Check to Fix ThisI’ve seen all sorts of people clamoring for management’s heads. Let’s just calm down here for a minute. During Southwest’s last massive failure in 2021, I said, “…ultimately, the buck has to stop at the top. Newly-minted president of the airline, Mike Van de Ven, has been COO for 15 years, so this is his baby.”

Now, Mike has left the building, so it is a different situation. CEO Bob Jordan took over from Gary Kelly and came into his role only on February 1, less than a year ago. He wasn’t in the operation before. He technically didn’t even have the President job until this week when he took it from Mike. Mike finally gave up his COO job on October 1 when former Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Watterson stepped in.

The team in place today knows that there’a big problem in the operation, but if you think that they can snap their fingers and have something fixed right away after years and years of neglect under the previous regime, then you’re asking too much. This has to be considered the final, horribly spectacular operational failure of the previous COO and CEO.

Plans were already put into place to speed up modernization of the operation, but there’s always that balance of spending and resources vs time to fix. That better no longer be an issue Southwest is too big of an airline, and it’s too important in the country. The airline needs to spend as much as it needs to get the right tech in place — I mean, maybe they can upgrade from DOS to Windows 3.1 — and hire an army of professionals to fix this.

Whether the plan they implement is a good one or not, well, that’s to be determined down the road. But there should be absolutely nothing stopping Andrew from putting his plan into motion now, unless former CEO Gary Kelly — current Chairman of the Board — decides to try to go out with a bang. I can’t see that happening. The clock is ticking.

DOT Gets a Christmas Gift and Can Now Give One to the Rest of UsFor the last year, the Department of Transportation under Secretary Buttiegieg has been looking for a fight. It wants to show it’s serious about standing up for consumers, but the efforts so far have involved a lot of saber rattling and little action. If they were just looking for anything big to open the door to action, Southwest just swung open the entire side of the barn.

We have not seen a good customer response from Southwest, and I don’t understand how there isn’t a better plan in place considering this has happened before. For days the airline said nothing. Then it talked about being willing to reimburse people for their alternate travel, but they didn’t put out clear guidelines. If I could only find a $3,000 ticket from Chicago to LA, would I get my money back? Who knows? It took Southwest far too long even to put out a policy saying it would reimburse, even without numbers attached.

Poor Southwest employees were overwhelmed by this at every point. If you got through on the phone at all, it was a Christmas miracle. If you went to the airport, you were greeted by hours-long lines snaking through. There was no relief and at a time when people just wanted to see their family, Southwest failed. Badly.

This is terrible for those who were stuck in this mess, but it should be a golden opportunity for the DOT to make great strides in improving actual passenger protections here.

The top of my wishlist continues to be that DOT mandate interline reaccommodation during irregular operations at fixed rates. There is no reason Southwest can’t put people on other airlines. Sure, it takes some IT work, but the benefit would be so much greater. Mandate some kind of settlement rate, do whatever you need to do. But just make it happen.

I would expect that DOT action would go well beyond what was actually impacted during this event. After all, if you’re the government, you want to take advantage of an event like this to push through what you can, right? I have no doubt I’ll disagree with some (ok, most) of the things that get proposed, but I have hope that the end result will still be a far better situation for those who get stuck in a situation like we saw unfold this holiday.

These meltdowns just should not happen, and Southwest’s current ops team certainly knows it and should have carte blanche to fix it. But airlines are complex beasts and, well, shit happens. When it does happen, travelers should have the confidence that they will be taken care of better than they have been up until now. Previous meltdowns have yet to get any worthwhile action, so hopefully this will be the catalyst that actually creates change for future travelers.

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This map looks weird. Any year without Hawai’i is a sad one.

Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.Of course, this was primarily due to me doing the Oakland Corridor Challenge.

Miles: 13,167 (11,674 last year)
Segments: 26 (16 last year)
New Aircraft: A320neo
New Airlines: JSX, Air Transat
New Airports: Montreal
Most Common Aircraft: 737-700 (11 flights)
Most Common Airline: Southwest (15 segments)
Most Common Airport: Oakland (8 departures/8 arrivals)
Most Common Non-Directional Route: Long Beach – Phoenix (6 segments)

How’d you do?

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It’s that time again where we review the airlines that we lost during the year. And you know what? It was a very short list this year. As always, I keep a list of my own, so I can at least keep an eye on the highlights. That list wasn’t long, but I figured I’d just missed something. As always I turned to the ch-aviation database which is by far the most complete one around… and well, it still wasn’t very long. I guess COVID just knocked everyone out in 2020 and 2021, and there wasn’t much left for this year.

Fear not… we have some to honor, just not a ton.

Air Leap (Norway and Sweden) – January 24, 2022
Air Leap has a confusing history. It came to be out of the ashes of FlyViking an airline which barely made the Tomb of the Unknown in 2018 — but that was as a virtual airline called Next Move. Its next move was to rename as Air Leap and then merge it with the remains of Nextjet to get an operating certificate. But it didn’t get an operating certificate, so it farmed out flying until it got its own… eventually. Once it got its certificate, it then went out and created another virtual airline over in Norway, because things weren’t complicated enough. The Swedish airline flew the flights for the Norwegian airline. Are you bored yet? I’m bored. So let’s just leave it at this. The airline flew props around Scandinavia. Now it doesn’t.

Royal Flight (Russia) – March 16, 2022
You would think that the massive sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine invasion would have taken down more airlines… and maybe they have but we just don’t know it yet. Royal Flight did, however, publicly fail. It started as Abakan-Avia back in 1992 in the remote city of Abakan, less than 400 miles north of Mongolia. Like most airlines from back then, it was carved out of one of the many Aeroflot units. It took on its current name when it was bought by a Russian tour operator in 2014, and it flew holiday charters from bigger Russian cities. With the inability of Russians to travel to most holiday spots outside the country, Royal Flight couldn’t make it. I saw one report saying the final straw was that its Turkish shareholders pulled the airplanes out of the country for fear of what Russia would do if they stayed. That tracks.

Comair/Kulula (South Africa) – May 31, 2022
Finally, we get to an airline that you may have heard of. Though to be fair, you likely never saw an airplane painted in Comair colors. Started in colonial times, Comair was always meant to focus on travel within Southern Africa. In recent times, it was one of the British Airways franchise partners that operated fully under the BA name and code using 737s. If you flew to South Africa, you also probably knew Comair as “that full service airline I could fly between cities so I didn’t have to fly South African.” It started a low cost operator called Kulula as well which should be best known for its excellent flying 101 livery. When tourism stopped during the pandemic, the entire South African airline industry crumbled. Despite a few half-hearted efforts, no plan to save the company ever came to fruition. With Comair gone, that leaves little SUN-AIR out of Denmark as the only BA franchise partner left. And more concerning, it leaves teetering South African as the only full service operator in South Africa… though Airlink has tried to step in some limited ways.

Eswatini Airlink (Eswatini) – June 1, 2022
Of all the South African airlines, it was Airlink that survived the pandemic best. It extricated itself from its South African partnership and has positioned itself well for the future. The same can’t be said for its joint venture Eswatini Airlink. Eswatini Airlink started out as a joint venture between Airlink and the government of Swaziland to create the small country’s flag carrier. Swaziland — on the eastern edge of South Africa also bordering Mozambique — changed its name to Eswatini in 2018 and the airline followed suit. It wasn’t much of an airline, just connecting Manzini to Johannesburg, and it didn’t have its own certificate. It just used Airlink aircraft. The two entities broke up with Airlink still serving the main airport in Manzini on its own and the government now starting a new flag carrier creatively named Eswatini Air that may some day fly.

Airbahn (United States) – June 20, 2022
Airbahn was not an airline but rather a strange fever dream that was officially (forcibly) abandoned this year. The airline was to be based in Southern California and it even had an airplane — an A320 it had sitting at Ontario Airport that came from Pakistan’s Airblue, an actual airline owned by the same owners as Airbahn. The idea was to fly A320s in an ultra low-cost model on short-haul routes around the west. The obvious question is… why? There’s no shortage of low-fare west coast operations, and this really didn’t seem to make any sense. Certification proceeded at a snail’s pace, and eventually DOT said it had gone too slow and ended the process in May. June 20 was the last time anyone ever posted anything on social media, so I’m going with that date as the unofficial end of the road. The airline has now left the country.

CommutAir (United States) – July 26, 2022
Let me guess… you are confused. Isn’t CommutAir a large operator of ERJ-145s for United Express? And the answer is no, it’s not. CommuteAir is that airline. CommutAir officially died last year when the owners decided it was hugely important to have an “e” in there so that people would stop calling it “kahm-ut-air” or something like that. Was that a thing? I have no idea. I’m really only even writing about this because it was such a slow year. The new name became official in June, and that means CommutAir is no more, barely, some might say unfairly, qualifying the airline for this list. Unless you have a strong love of the letter “e,” this is not exciting.

Tchadia Airlines (Chad) – August 8, 2022
Did you know Chad had a flag carrier? I might need to back up. Did you know Chad was a country? It is, and it’s a geographically big one with 16 million people lying just south of Libya. The former French colony wanted a national carrier, so in 2018 it signed up with Ethiopian to create Tchadia Airlines. It did not go well. The airline was small, with only a couple of Q400 turboprops. It primarily flew domestic routes but also touched a couple of neighboring countries. Despite its modest size, it only bled money and this year was the end. The airline was set to be liquidated. This is a real shame for those living in the capital N’Djamena. Now there are no good domestic options, and travel requires going through another African hub or even Paris.

ExpressJet/aha! (United States) – August 23, 2022
CommutAir was just the appetizer. The real (former) United Express operator flying Embraer 145s that went bust was Expressjet along with its last stand at staying alive, aha! I covered ExpressJet’s long history when it failed in 2020. But the 2020 event apparently wasn’t enough to keep the airline in the ground. With nothing to lose, the ExpressJet team came up with the annoyingly-named aha!. This branded operation was really meant to be like a small airplane version of Allegiant. It started up with a Reno base using ERJ-145s flying around the west. The idea was to bring in tourists on infrequent flights and try to sell packages when possible to get more money. That explains what the name was said to stand for… air, hotel, adventure! (Don’t forget the crucial exclamation point.) None of this really worked as planned. The airline tried a few different routes but none of them worked well enough to keep it flying. They called it quits, and it looks like this time there will be no resurrection.

Blue Air (Romania) – September 6, 2022
I suppose we can categorize this one under “probably dead” since there seems to be some sort of rumored plan to return to the skies. But Blue Air is not flying airplanes right now, and my money is on that not happening again. Blue Air was an early success story among low-cost attempts in central and eastern Europe. With flag carrier TAROM effectively being a walking zombie, Blue Air came in and started offering services all over with narrowbodies, even acquiring 737 MAX 8s. Early in the pandemic the airline went bankrupt but kept flying. While the pandemic was problematic, I think it’s safe to say that the bigger problem was Wizz Air which has had more departures than Blue Air since 2010 and has only kept growing. Technically, Blue Air isn’t dead. It still has a couple of old airplanes, and its license to operate is suspended, not revoked. The government has talked about nationalizing the airline, but the plans all seem very squishy. So we’ll call it dead for now.

Elite Airways (United States) – November 5, 2022
Is Elite Airways still alive? I have no idea. Was it ever really alive? What is the meaning of life? That’s kind of where I am with Elite, a Portland (ME)-based airline that sometimes flew and sometimes didn’t. But I think it’s time to call it dead. It hasn’t flown any sort of commercial service for months, and the very last date any of its airplanes flew anywhere (according to FlightAware) was November 5 when an airplane went from Vero Beach to Smyrna, most likely for parking and abandonment. The airline liked to sneak in and out of small airports between the Northeast and Florida, at least on a scheduled basis, but it just doesn’t look like there’s anything left there. I think it’s fair to call this one dead… but there have been plenty of un-dead experiences in airline land so we’ll see. (An article this week would seem to solidify this proclamation of death.)

Tomb of the Unknown Airline* Blu-Express (Italy) * Fly Macaw (United Kingdom) * GCA Air (Colombia) * Green Airways (Germany) * Infinity Airlines (Chile) * Jota Aviation (United Kingdom) * Kamchatka Airlines (Russia) * Shenniao Airlines (China) * Tanana Air Service and Shannon’s Air Taxi (US) merged into Grant Aviation

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It’s been a lot of fun reading through predictions this year. It’s the first time in awhile we’ve started looking beyond COVID, at least a little. And this is no small feat since you wrote these predictions just as Omicron was rising.

This year, I’m just going to comment on the predictions that came true. If you took the opposite position on one of these, well, then your comment will appear there as well. But if you were on your own with an incorrect prediction, no need to shine a spotlight. You can find yourself in the Graveyard at the bottom.

Remember to leave your predictions for 2023 in the comments. I’m amazed at how many of you don’t follow these instructions, but I’ll say it again anyway. I will only consider the first prediction you make when I evaluate guesses next year. Anything after the first will be ignored in the review.

Boeing and Its Certification Issues Justin – Boeing experiences more issues getting 787’s delivered and some airlines cancel orders as a result. Other airlines sweep in to take the already-produced planes at bargain prices. * emac – Boeing will announce no new commercial products in 2022 (no Max derivatives, additional 777 or 787 derivatives — OK, maybe a 777X freighter — no NMA), instead keeps shrinking into irrelevance. The interesting question I think is whether they go back to EMB for help with engineering and 100 seaters, but given their hubris I think that’s a long shot. * Jonathan – Boeing continues to have a terrible year, with the 787 delivery crisis lasting even longer than thought. Eventually some sort of leadership/organization restructuring takes place. One thing for sure: they have a new CEO by the end of the year. One from the outside, and without any GE ties as well. * GS – Boeing – certification issues continue to plague the company due to continued scrutiny from the FAA * Pilotaaron1* – Boeing will introduce the NMA/797. It will be similar to the 757 in that it will be single-isle, operate from hot/high, and be optimized for long and thin routes with a higher payload than the A321-XLR.

Congrats to GS for being the most correct. Justin and emac get a second place finish. Yes indeed, Boeing’s 787 issues went longer than expected and the MAX 7/10 certification is a downright train wreck. But airlines aren’t canceling, because where would they go? Boeing hasn’t announced any new airplanes this year, but its CEO is still in charge.

The American/JetBlue NEA ChuckMO – I predict the AA/B6 NEA will ultimately be okayed, with some additional conditions imposed. * Brian – I predict the AA/B6 NEA will still be in court a year from now, with the agreement plugging along unaffected. * SEAN – The success of the NEA will cause AA to attempt a similar scheme on the west coast with AS. This will cause AA to begin flowing passengers via SEA or PDX rather than LAX for service across the pacific. This will allow for the growth of SEA as well as PDX as viable competition for DL in SEA. * DesertGhost – I feel bold enough to predict a settlement in the anti trust lawsuit trying to block the NEA. The big winner will be Spirit. Since this whole thing is about the government’s false narrative that ULCCs are charities, and automatically lower fares substantially (however one wants to define that term). * John – Knowing DOJ will stiff-arm a desired merger with JetBlue (too many carve-outs), AA announces more DOJ-friendly merger with Alaska. * Keith* – AA/B6 NEA gets approval by regulators though in exchange for additional commitments of maintaining service at specific airports (particularly smaller regional northeast airports), additional slot divesture at LGA and withdrawal/disqualification of obtaining the 16 peak period EWR slots (NK being the winner here at both airports).

Barring a late 2022 surprise, we still won’t know the answer here. Will it be shot down? Only the judge knows. This means Brian was completely right. For everyone else, we’ll see, but nothing was announced with Alaska. That much we know.

ITA/Alitalia Yo – Whatever Alitalia calls itself these days will continue to suck, but they will get bailed out by the Italian government. * MK03 – ITA will remain the Worst Airline Ever for 2022. * Simon – ITA will rebrand. * Brian G* – I predict that ITA will rebrand into “Alitalia”.

MK03 is correct, but that’s easy because. like the queen, this is a role you inherit for life. And ITA/Alitalia will never die. No rebranding though. And I just assume a bailout is always in progress at all times.

Pilots and the Regionals Dan – We’re going to continue to see a shortage of pilots willing to work for the wages regional airlines are willing to pay. Therefore, more flying will shift to mainline and smaller cities will continue to lose their branded network carrier service. This will either create an opportunity for innovation or more federal funding to subsidize small city service. * Brycen* – Majors will be forced to drastically shrink the regionals forcing the smallest ones under or they will collude to squeeze an LCC under.

There were far fewer comments about a pilot shortage than I imagine we’ll see this year. We just didn’t quite know how bad it would be, but Dan is right. It was quite the roller coaster.

COVID Hammer – Due to the presence of Omicron or another Covid variant, transatlantic demand will be softer than expected this upcoming summer. As a result, some airlines will not operate all of the routes that they announced for the summer 2022 season. * stogieguy7 – Omicron will result in a ton of cancelations and pullbacks in the first quarter of 2022. However, as this variant is generally mild (like a cold for those who are even symptomatic), the public backlash to these various government limitations will grow. Masks may still be required through 2022, but we’ll gradually see borders open up and travel grow significantly as the world realizes that COVID is here to stay and we have to live with it. Thus, trans-Pacific will start up again and Australia-US routes will grow. QF will even do Brisbane-LAX. New Zealand remains skittish and Air NZ suffers as a result. * Jim M – Omicron will create a wave of negative publicity in Q1 2022 as airlines are pushing big schedules with little staffing, and sick outs will be a PR nightmare as grandma gets stranded in ORD for the night. Since its an election year expect congressional hearing with . . . wait for it. . . absolutely no action. But expect a healthy amount of airline dragging in the media. * Eric – if COVID continues to mutate rapidly then Cranky will revive the beloved ‘Skeds’ posts to track the industries schizophrenic near & medium term skd adjustments based on whatever direction the wind is blowing that week. * southbayflier* – The second half of 2022 will finally bring some normalcy to the airline industry after everyone has been infected with the Omicron variant. Business travel will finally start to come back, though not quite to 2019 levels.

Of course there was still talk about COVID. It was a much bigger deal last December than right now. Stogieguy7 got pretty close, though New Zealand is nice and open now. And masking did not remain required through the end of the year. Southbayflier was right as well as things started to get back toward normal, with business travel lagging. But sorry, Eric, no Skeds returning from me. You can always subscribe to Cranky Network Basics to get that info.

AAustin Focus City Jerry – AA’s burgeoning AUS “focus city” gets killed off due to poor loads, but AA still goes forward with the new Admirals Club. * Ian L – OW+ carriers (AA+AS+B6+BA) will exceed WN for pax share in AUS 3+ months out of 2022 (though not the entire year), though AA alone will never exceed WN’s pax share. AA will ask for, and get, a NEA-ish JV with AS, at which point one of the two will exit the bloodbath that is AUS-LAX. AA will not draw down the focus city, though destinations/frequencies/fleet/codeshare mix will get tweaked. In fact, due to intense competition on fares to fill planes, NK and F9 will each carry fewer pax out of AUS in 2022 (let’s say first 9-10 months YoY since AUS is slow in releasing traffic numbers) than they did in 2021, though AA+NK+F9 will have more pax share YoY every single month. * Tejas* – AA/WN/G4 continues to grow in AUS.

All this talk about Austin. The reality is that American seems pretty happy and is pushing ahead. Ian missed on that one since it doesn’t look like anyone knockced Southwest off its perch in passenger share, according to reports from the airport. But Ian was right that Frontier and Spirit were lower in 2022… and Alaska got out of Austin – LA.

aha! Johosofat – ExpressJet will close aha! * b – Aha! will be on next year’s list of airlines we lost * dc flyer – ExpressJet’s attempt at remaking Independence Air will go under faster than Independence Air did in the 2000s * ekozie – Between Breeze, Avelo, and aha!, only one of the three will survive 2022. I’m leaning toward Breeze. * Ken W* – Aha! shuts down and Express Jet finally sends all its EMB 140-45 to the desert and someone buys their certificate to start flying EAS routes.

Yes, yes, aha! is gone. Congrats to Johosofat, Andrew Armstrong, and dc flyer. Ken W you were on the right path, but nobody has picked up that certificate. And sorry, ekozie, Avelo and Breeze are still going, so you get half credit.

Award Travel Douglas Swalen – I will again predict an award travel devaluation by multiple carriers – International or Domestic this time – due to the glut of miles piling up. Basic math tells us it has to happen. The only question is when. * Zhuo Andrew* – The industry loves the simplicity and revenue driven approach of the new American Airlines AAdvantage policy in elite qualifying. At least one legacy carrier in the US follows suit.

So it’s funny… I don’t really know about these and I don’t really care. Award travel is most definitely not my thing. But I’m sure somebody had a devaluation, so I’m guessing you are right, Douglas Swalen. And Zhuo Andrew, well, I don’t think anyone followed, but maybe someone can chime in on that.

Norwegian Patrick* – Norwegian manages to avoid another bankruptcy filing in 2022, but has to further scale back their operations. Wizz Air might try to buy them, but the offer will be rejected.

I just had to address this, because yes, Patrick is right. But Norwegian has focused on its original strengths, and it actually did post a pre-tax profit this summer. It’s amazing what happens when you stick to what you’re good at, eh Norwegian?

Southwest Leadership LostLUV* – SWA— Mike Van de Ven will retire (be fired) towards the end of 2022 for continued management over multiple meltdowns and ruining SWA operational performance and reputation.

Winner, winner! Indeed, Mike Van de Ven is gone, though nobody at that level ever gets fired. Andrew Watterson takes over as COO and CEO Bob Jordan takes the President role back.

Aircraft Orders Austin787* – Another US based airline places a new aircraft order, taking advantage of favorable deals to address its long term aircraft needs.

Well, I guess if you count that tiny order (including options) for 200 787s and 100 737 MAXs, then that recent United order proves you right, Austin 787.

JetBlue in Europe Joe A – Jetblue secures permanent LHR slots. * CraigTPA* – JetBlue will announce at least one, possibly two, new UK destinations – some combination of Manchester, Birmingham, Cardiff, or Bristol (but not Cardiff and Bristol, they’re too close together.)

Joe A, you got it. Permanent slots are theirs. But there are no other UK destinations on the horizon CraigTPA.

The World’s Largest Airline Tory* – United will be the country’s and the world’s largest carrier by the end of 2022 measured by scheduled ASMs going forward (not necessarily during calendar 2022), mainly on the basis of its restored international service, while AA and DL will struggle to restore their international service to the same extent.

This is hard to say because schedules aren’t final. But United does pull ahead of American in March and April if it all holds.

Virgin Australia Long-Haul Jeremyfly* – Virgin Australia will not order widebody aircraft to relaunch longhaul flights and will stick to 737s only

I love this one, because it’s correct that Virgin Australia did not order widebodies… but it is going back into long-haul, using the MAX to fly Cairns to Tokyo, a route nearly identical in length to JFK – Paris. Still, I call this a win, Jeremyfly.

Frontier Grows Noah Shurz* – Frontier will grow their ASMs to be at least 105% 2019 levels, through increased Orlando flying to the Carribean.

Yup, yup, yup Noah. Frontier’s growth train keeps on chugging and it passed that threshold. Orlando flying to the Caribbean did increase, but so did a whole lot of other things.

The Graveyard of Failed Predictions Hayden – AS BOI focus city continues to explode * Outer Space Guy – Commercial airliners will install a new radio based device that will emit a signal which “deadens” any drones in the vicinity. This device will be enabled for takeoff and landing. Drone manufacturers will be mandated to include a chip which makes their drones basically go-dead/fall-from-the-sky if the drone receives a signal emitted from a nearby aircraft. * Aliquot – AS will return to YYZ. * MIAZiggy – MIA will add another 1/2 mile to it’s already 1 mile long Concourse D just to piss off everybody. * FC – Under pressure from various airlines, Airbus launches A220-500 in late 2022 despite initial reluctance to do so * Mike K – Airbus launches A220-500 and Delta orders 100+ * Jonas – Due to exploding demand on the TATL market – everybody and their mother will want to fly either way during the summer – airlines will put some “unfit” planes onto routes between North America and Europe (think A319s with stop(s) in Shannon/Reykjavik/Halifax/St. John’s/Gander/Ponta Delgada) to make every cent possible. * Dan Hood – STL has another good year: AA will continue to grow their STL operation into something that resembles a focus city. NK will add destinations as well (LGA/EWR?). Someone (probably WN) will start STL-ORF and/or STL-RIC service. Everyone will continue ganging up on F9, and their LFs will continue to suck, but they won’t leave. No new airlines will begin serving STL, save for Lufthansa. * MarylandDavid – With new leadership, Southwest will officially announce plans to diversify their aircraft mix starting with the 737-900. * McMicah – Allegiant continues its success in the leisure market, far outpacing the margins of all other legacy carriers and shifts its strategy to continue focusing on growth in larger, more business-heavy markets. * ktenorman – My prediction is that in Winter 2022-2023 AA will start sub-Saharan Africa service from MIA with aircraft that would otherwise be unused in the winter season. * Ian K – One or more regionals will go under. Most likely GoJet or Commuttair. * Chicago Chris – PLAY overextends itself and folds. While Norse Atlantic continues a rapid expansion. * PF – Breeze adds SLC to please the local HDQ employees. * Brett – Hub Prediction: Delta’s old focus cities (AUS, CVG, RDU, etc) will become their new A220 bases of operation once they fill in the routes of Delta Hub to competitor Hub. * MRY-SMF – Another low-cost airline starts on the business model of funneling people into a mid-sized airport a la aha! and Avelo because every airport deserves its own airline! * Jim Kingdon – A large airline somewhere in the world will face a crisis (bankruptcy, forced merger, or something of similar scale) as demand fluctuates and governments slowly lose interest in bailouts. * Foxpresso – Northern Pacific and Alaska Airlines merge, leading to AS to have transpacific flights from Anchorage * Mar – Avelo will be sued for copyright infringement from Apple, Target, Tesla, New Line Cinema for Elf, or all of the above * DubboMax – Airbus will launch the A220-500 at the end of the year, effectively killing the A319neo. SIA will launch joint venture with United. * Kevin – Carriers leave Green Bay (GRB) and consolidate operations at Appleton (ATW). * David C – UA at Denver breaks through 750 daily departures at Denver * Shashank – UA will try to fly to HOU and MDW but will eventually fail * Bill from DC – CLE finally pulls the trigger on a $1B plus brand new airport thus ending decades of partially renovating and piecing together a handful of ancient concourses. Rental cars will be moved back on site ending the ridiculous current consolidated setup located approximately 23.6 miles away from the terminal. * Bixby Knolls Padres – Huge demand for Private jet services will prompt the FAA to limit take off and landing slots with a ceiling to prevent congested skies in most metropolitan markets. * redlegsfan21 – There will be a new cargo airline startup trying to take advantage of cheap airplanes and a backlogged transpacific cargo market * Chris – The EU will refuse the Portuguese government’s request to bail out TAP Air Portugal and TAP seek a seller in the private sector for a fire sale. * VictorKilo – The next major labor shortage in the airline industry will be Flight Attendants, especially lower paid ones for regional airlines. The continuing abuse by passengers and their role in enforcing masks on airplanes, plus the strong labor market, cause so many to leave the field that it becomes a problem for airlines during 2022. * Greengsg9 – American will announce they will retire their B777’s before the end of the decade * SEA SFO – Delta continues to double down on loss-making equity investments and further lags behind UA and AA internationally by continuing to reduce flying on its own metal. The press release reads “Delta, America’s Global Airline, Expands on Worlds’ Largest Long Haul Network by ASMs to Give Customers More Options* than Ever Before” * ejwpj – MH370 will be found * dfw88 – AA continues to expand its relationship with QR and announces more flights to the Middle East and India (BOM comes to mind, maybe an extra DEL from DFW). Their marketing department starts drumming up hype about being the largest US airline to the Middle East and India, even though most of the lift is on QR codeshares. * Randolf – Avelo and northern pacific will not make 2023 * Ishrion – DFW Airport secures a new route to Europe (specifically Barcelona, Munich, Manchester, Zurich, or Stockholm), or Delhi, India. * Dave – Cathay Pacific ceases operations. China Southern takes over Hong Kong. * Cody c – The asiana-korean air merger is approved by the US, but at the cost of the korean air/delta jv being dissolved.

Tomb of the Unknown* Davey – All of the major legacy carriers plus Alaska, Jet Blue and Southwest will report full-year profits for 2022.

Full year numbers aren’t reported until in the new year, but I hear you Davey. Feel free to come back once the numbers are out.

• Alex Hill – I personally will get on an airplane for the first time since 2019, but my travel will remain way below what it was, especially business travel limited to one trip all year.

Well, Alex. I can’t answer this one. Did you?

Remember, leave one and only one prediction in the comments below for what 2023 will bring.

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Publishing Note: We’ll be taking some time off during the holidays, so we are pre-scheduling some posts and going quieter than usual. Any comments that are moderated will take longer to approve, and we won’t be responding to comments frequently if at all during this time. Here’s the plan:

• No post Monday, December 26 due to Christmas holiday
• 2022 prediction review on Tuesday, December 27
• Airlines We Lost on Thursday, December 28
• No Cranky Weekly Review on Friday, December 29
• No post Monday, January 2 due to the New Years holiday
• 2022 Flying Summary on Tuesday, January 3
• Regular schedule resumes on Thursday, January 5

United Unites Through Pilot Boss ResignationUnited Captain Neil Swindells resigned late Wednesday from his new post as the leader of UA’s pilot union, deciding he would be better off returning to his previous position of mean-spirited, online troll. He had been narrowly voted into the union role by the carrier’s nearly 15,000 pilots, probably in an attempt to get him off his computer as much as possible.

The aftermath of Swindells’ election earlier this week led to the revelation of a series of vile, racist, and misogynistic comments that made him seem to be a pretty awful human being. In his resignation letter, Swindells says his comments were “taken completely out of context and publicly weaponized against [him].” It seems his point is that a seemingly innocent comment such as “I hope they all died slow painful deaths of a anal cancer requiring multiple surgeries, and copious amounts of seepage from weeping wounds,” was taken out of context. We’re not sure what context would make this look appropriate, but if anyone figures it out, please let us know.

From a practical standpoint, United’s pilots will now need to hire a new head of their Master Executive Council (MEC) of the Air Lines Pilots Association (ALPA). Swindells was voted in by the UA pilots executive council by just a 9-8 margin, so it’s not as if he had a landslide victory. Hopefully whomever the pilots pick next is at least a little less awful of a human being.

Boeing Saved by the BellCurrent federal law would require Boeing’s production of two new B737 MAX models to contain a new cockpit-alert system designed to help pilots solve emergencies. But Boeing says if its required to include the new measures by the government’s December 27 deadline, it will cancel production of the planes instead. It appears the manufacturer successfully lobbied Congress to give it a reprieve, a major victory for the manufacturer heading into 2023.

A provision in a spending bill unveiled on Tuesday in the Congress would give Boeing the out it’s looking for despite requiring some safety enhancements, while stopping short of forcing the new alert system on it.

Boeing’s efforts to push the deadline back has the support of Southwest’s pilots union, while American’s oppose Boeing. Despite having no Boeing aircraft, JetBlue’s pilots said they would do whatever AA told them to do, while Spirit and Frontier’s pilots said they would do the opposite of whatever JetBlue did. United’s pilots were a bit busy kicking their leader out of power to weigh in while Delta’s union was waiting to see what the delay in the rule would do to Biscoff supply chains.

American, Mesa Go Through Ugly Breakup

We’ve covered this extensively this week, but we can’t call it a weekly review without another mention.

American Airlines and Mesa have finally called it quits with the regional carrier no longer flying for American after April 3. Mesa contends it wanted out of the relationship first, but regardless of who broke up with whom, the two are headed to an ugly divorce. Either way, one person’s trash is another person’s treasure, and United was more than happy to swoop in and serve as a rebound relationship for Mesa beyond April 2023.

Mesa flew on behalf of AA predecessors America West and US Airways with those contracts eventually being folded into American through mergers. Mesa’s recent struggles are due to a shortage in pilots — similar to other regionals — while only flying 20 airplanes on behalf of AA. When American snatched Air Wisconsin from United earlier this year, that served as one of the last straws in the embattled relationship between American and Mesa.

As of September 30, 2021, Mesa earned about 52% of its gross revenue from United, 45% from American and the balance from DHL (flying for the airline, not stealing packages off doorsteps… we’re pretty sure). When the transition is complete next spring, United will account for as much as 97% of Mesa’s revenue, and potentially up to 100% as DHL’s checks keep getting lost in transit.

For more on this story, check out Monday and Thursday‘s post on CrankyFlier.com.

BA Suffers Britain’s Biggest American Failure Since 1776British Airways was unable to operate any of its departures from the United States Monday night as a “technical glitch” in its long-haul flight planning systems kept its airplanes on the ground. Short-haul flights were not affected by the issue, although it helps that evening time in the United States is the middle of the night in London, when few short-haul flights are operating.

The delays extended beyond the U.S. to BA’s flights departing Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. BA flights at New York/JFK were delayed well into the night with passengers handling the delay well and definitely not complaining or confronting frontline airport staff who had nothing to do with the issue. BA’s second nightly departure from Washington/Dulles, scheduled to depart around 10 p.m. finally departed the gate just after 3:30 a.m., arriving at Heathrow at 3:09 p.m.

The issue was eventually fixed and BA’s flights took off as normal, with cold service from the flight attendants and mediocre food. Upon landing in London, passengers were afforded the opportunity to wait in interminable queues to be rebooked by angry staff.

Canadian Airport Unprepared for Winter Snowfall

Vancouver International Airport is limiting the number of international flights to operate at the airport over the next couple days as the airport recovers from an unprecedented backlog of delayed and canceled flights due to a Tuesday snowstorm.

The airport’s decision affected more than two dozen flights which were scheduled to land between Wednesday afternoon and tonight. YVR suspended operations Tuesday after a snowstorm late Monday night through Tuesday piled up on runways, taxiways, and roads leading to the airport. Most flights were canceled Wednesday as well, with the airport slowly beginning the path back to normal on Thursday.

WestJet canceled more than 200 flights in the middle of the week In British Columbia and Alberta alone, knowing it will be into next week at the earliest before its operation is fully recovered. Air Canada says it’s waiving rebooking fees for passengers scheduled to fly in or out of YVR through Christmas Day, but knowing AC’s track record, passengers should expect to see a bill for the flight change shortly after the holiday.

• Air Canada did one of those things you need an economics or finance degree to really understand.
• Air New Zealand is returning the B777-300ER on its service between Auckland and Houston/IAH.
• American confirmed 50 delivery slots for vertical eVTOL aircraft that will absolutely, definitely fly one day.
• Canada Jetlines received FAA approval to operate to the United States. The government did say the approval was conditional on only serving U.S. destinations from actual cities in Canada, not made up places that no one’s ever heard of.
• Delta is getting closer to providing free Wi-Fi so that passengers in first class can complain online about not receiving a pre-departure beverage while in-flight and not having to wait until landing.
• Fiji Airways might begin flying to South America. Also, it might not.
• Finnair is beefing up summer flying to Asia.
• Flyr wants to fly chartrs and wet-lease operations to the United States and is guarantteed to face resistance from U.S. carriers of all shapes and sizes.
• Garuda Indonesia scored a bag cash from the Indonesia government.
• JetBlue selected Peacock to be its exclusive in-flight streaming partner.
• ITA appears to have a ~~winner~~ ~~loser~~ winner in the sweepstakes to purchase a stake of the carrier from the Italian government. Lufthansa, come on down! The airline also announced new summer service to both San Francisco and Washington/Dulles.
• Lufthansa Group and SAS are expanding their codeshare relationship.
• Porter continues to grow at Toronto/Pearson, adding 2x daily service to Halifax on February 28.
• Qantas‘s lounge in Honolulu reopened on Monday.
• Ryanair announced it will begin 2x weekly service between Cardiff and Belfast beginning in April.
• SAS is adding two sassy new routes from Newark to both Aalborg (AAL) and Gothenburg (GOT).
• Star Alliance named SAS VP and Rising Star herself Charlotte Wieland as its interim CEO after former CEO Jeffrey Goh Gohed away.
• Turkish will be hiring, so brush up that resume.
• WestJet CFO Harry Taylor is retiring. The retirement party will be Tuesday at 2 p.m. in the conference room on the fourth floor. Light refreshments will be provided. We ask that you RSVP with Bill from HR no later than COB Monday.

What do you call someone afraid to meet Santa Claus?

Claustrophobic.

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The smart bet would have been on American and Mesa terminating their relationship multiple times over the past several years, but time and time again, the pact endured. That streak ended last weekend when it was revealed that Mesa will no longer be flying as an American Eagle regional carrier after April 3. It was clearly a bitter break-up. How did this all go wrong?

Mesa had flown for American and its predecessor companies US Airways and America West for decades. Over the years there had been an ebb and flow, but in the end, American would still stick with Mesa because it could provide regional feed for cheap. Mesa’s low-cost operator status was understandably appealing to those holding the purse strings.

Approaching the pandemic, Mesa once again found itself in hot water with American. With 47 of Mesa’s airplanes expiring in two tranches, the two partners agreed on a new comprehensive deal moving forward that greatly reduced the number of contracted aircraft from somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 down to a flat 40. The agreement began January 1, 2021 and would run for 5 years.

It didn’t take long for American to start getting agitated. All regionals have been hurt by the pilot shortage, but Mesa was performing worse than the others despite having recently reduced the number of airplanes. Here’s a look at Anuvu data showing the percent of cancellations by operator by month under American-marketed flights.

% of Cancellations by Month for American Mainline and Regional OperationsData via AnuvuConsidering Mesa had a bunch of aircraft just lying around with nothing else to do, this result may be surprising. If the cancellation rates weren’t enough, the flights that did fly were underperforming as well. Looking at American’s favorite metric of D0, Mesa was again at the bottom of all the regionals even though it only flew out of the relatively benign-weathered hubs in Phoenix and Dallas-Fort Worth.

Departures On Time or Earlier (D0) by Month for American Mainline and Regional OperationsData via AnuvuThe numbers are what they are, but why those numbers exist is a matter of debate.

On one side, American can easily point and say Mesa is just not a reliable operator. Possibly even more dangerous to the relationship, Mesa had also becoming increasingly irrelevant in the airline’s network. Not only was Mesa’s operational performance lagging, but Mesa could only provide 20 to 25 aircraft to be scheduled by the beginning of 2022. This was a sharp decline from the already reduced number of 40, and it obviously was cause for concern.

On the other side, Mesa can deflect blame and say that American schedules the fleet, and Mesa is merely doing the best it can considering the circumstances. Further, American had gone and increased wages for pilots at its wholly-owned subsidiaries, and that hurt Mesa’s ability to get enough pilots in the door.

It wasn’t just pilots. Mesa was struggling to keep mechanics as well, and several ended up taking jobs for American, further reducing Mesa’s ability to operate punctually. (Both sides have made it clear this was never a safety issue.) The hiring of a partner’s mechanics seems to have left a bad taste in Mesa’s mouth, but American wasn’t going to tell applicants from Mesa they wouldn’t hire them just because of where they worked.

This operational degradation was problematic enough, but it led to heightened concerns, at least among some, about Mesa’s financial situation. In August of 2022, Mesa announced a massive increase in pilot wages to the top of the industry, raising first-year first officers from around $35/hour to $100/hour. This surpassed even American’s wholly-owned regionals which now started a first-year first officer at $90/hour.

From Mesa’s perspective, it had to boost wages in order to continue to attract pilots since American had set the market with its massive increase at its wholly-owneds. But for this to work for Mesa, it required American to pay the additional costs. American balked at this, but this wasn’t the first time. Apparently all that shrinking had put cost pressure on Mesa, and it had looked for more money even before the wage issue. That could have been resolved, at least in part. The wage issue was what really pushed this into impossible territory.

Mesa is said to have made this massive wage increase plan without consulting American. Once the plan came to light, American didn’t want to pay the increased costs, at least not the full amount. It certainly would have been different if American had been involved in the decision and had signed off on the plan in advance, but then again, it’s unlikely it would have signed off on such a rich agreement.

This instantly put Mesa in a bind. It was now, by its own admission, losing $5 million per month on these increased costs without the commensurate revenue bump. It sounds like American was willing to work with Mesa on some of the increases, but Mesa wanted to pass through the entire amount. With no agreement in sight, Mesa continued to lose money at alarming rates.

Mesa needed cash or it risked a bankruptcy filing, so it started to build the coffers. In October, the airline sold 18 of its CRJ-700s off to United, putting about $50 million in the bank. It was already operating dozens of Embraer 175s for United on airplanes that United had bought. This ensured Mesa could stay lean and not worry about the ownership costs of these aircraft during a time where it couldn’t find enough pilots to enable sufficient fleet utilization.

This was not how it worked with American and the CRJ-900s. Mesa was the owner/lessee and operator of those airplanes. The fewer airplanes it could keep in the air, the less ability it had to spread its fixed ownership costs around. This compounded the problem that already existed with those higher pilot wages. It was clearly an untenable situation for Mesa, though there are very different stories about whose fault it was that the airlines ended up in this place.

These issues led to fears of a potential Mesa bankruptcy permeating the halls at American, and that created urgency. It’s no secret Mesa was unhappy with the money-losing contract it was holding at American, and the simplest way to get out of that if American wouldn’t play ball was to file for bankruptcy protection and walk away. Whether this was actually on the table or not, it was certainly an option to be considered. American knew it, and had to think of the possible repercussions. What if Mesa filed for bankruptcy in the days before Christmas and pulled its 20-25 airplanes’ worth of flying? It would be a disaster that DOT Secretary Buttiegieg would not fail to use.

As I understand it, Mesa was the one that came to American and suggested an orderly wind down of the contract. This was the only real solution in the end. It would allow Mesa to get out of the money-losing deal without filing for bankruptcy. Getting American out of the way probably made it easier for Mesa to go back to United and get what it needed there as well. After all, United was and is desperate for more regional lift. For American, this would provide more certainty through the holidays and allow for the airplanes to leave quietly in April. It was a win-win for both airlines, and so it was done.

But wait… it couldn’t just end amicably could it? Of course it couldn’t. I was provided the text of the verbiage that Mesa says American proposed using to announce the break-up internally. It was very matter-of-fact.

American continually evaluates its regional network and makes strategic decisions that will benefit our airline and customers and best position us to run a reliable operation and return to sustained profitability. As a result, American and Mesa Airlines have mutually agreed to begin reducing our schedule operated by Mesa in early 2023. We’re working closely with Mesa to minimize disruptions to our customers’ travel plans and we continue to focus on delivering the very best global network with our other regional airline partners.

Contrast that with what actually was sent internally, and it paints a different picture.

Derek-Kerr-memoDownloadThis lengthier version talks about concerns about Mesa’s financial and operational viability, and it seems to have sent Mesa’s management into a rage. The memo gives far more color than the original draft that was circulated at Mesa, and it also appears designed to assuage any concerns shareholders may have had about management being willing to walk away from 20 airplanes’ worth of pilots at a time when pilots are tough to find.

Mesa’s own memo came out shortly after and was obviously quickly revised to help shift the narrative. The airline wanted to position this as Mesa breaking free of the shackles of the American deal and into the arms of a much more fair and friendly United.

The Mesa memo goes on to rake American over the coals, blaming it for not being willing to reimburse for pilot costs and saying that is a plot by American to bring more flying in-house and prevent third-party regionals from attracting pilots. Trying to seed the idea that American is a bad partner to all of its non-owned regionals feels like an emotional reaction since it’s unlikely — though not impossible — that Mesa could know the exact details of American’s other agreements. (The other regional partners at American are publicly silent on this, but it would seem to be a grave mistake for American to actually pursue this path with an enormous partner like SkyWest, let alone a little one like Air Wisconsin that it just lured away from United.)

Ultimately, Mesa wants everyone to know that it was the one that initiated the wind down, and it did so was because American wasn’t willing to pay what Mesa considers fair. This is also a message targeting the airline’s shareholders to build confidence, because outside of that particular area, does it really matter who started it all?

One thing both sides can agree upon is that the other is not reliable. The Mesa memo comes to the same conclusion as American’s… word-for-word.

American: As a result, we have concerns about Mesa’s ability to be a reliable partner for American going forward

Mesa: As a result, we have concerns about American’s ability to be a reliable partner going forward

Mesa is now free to run into United’s arms, but United isn’t there just yet. Yes, United wants a deal done. After all, CEO Scott Kirby went to talk with Mesa employees this week, presumably to reassure pilots that it was going to happen and convince them not to flee for other airlines with more certain prospects. While this agreement could happen any day, the uncertainty remains for the moment. When that fades, it will join the lingering bitter feelings associated with the American contract in the archives of regional airline history.

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.I hate seat pitch with a passion. Back in the day, it was a reasonable proxy for legroom, but now it is not. Seat construction is so different that 30 inch pitch can be better than 32, if it’s legroom you care about.

Come join me and Dave as we discuss, or, well, as I rant about just why I hate seat pitch and what would be a better way to look at it.

We are skipping the next episode for the holidays, but we’ll be back in 4 weeks with more..

Email Dave here to tell him you wish him a happy holiday season.

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The long-troubled relationship between American and its regional partner Mesa has finally reached its conclusion. According to Cirium data and confirmed through an internal memo, Mesa’s last day operating as American Eagle will be April 3, 2023. With this change, Mesa’s only regional relationship is with United, which it is apparently now embracing whole-heartedly by planning to move its CRJ-900s over there. This now completes the circle of life that American started when it snatched Air Wisconsin away from United.

Mesa has had a turbulent existence for nearly its entire life. The Cirum data I have goes back to 2003, and by then Mesa was a well-established regional jet operator which also had a still sizable presence in turboprops. It was flying for America West, US Airways, and United with Delta coming on in 2005. And it’s all been downhill since.

Mesa Air Group Monthly Operations by Marketing AirlineData via Cirium

Through mergers and consolidation, airlines disappeared but Mesa somehow continued to maintain contracts, or at least most of them. Delta dropped Mesa for performance issues by 2010, but over the last decade, Mesa had settled into being a two-partner player.

The United partnership has taken many twists and turns, but after nearly losing the deal entirely, Mesa scored an extension in 2013 to keep flying 20 CRJ-700s and start flying Embraer 175s for the airline. The CRJ-700s were eventually cast off and Mesa now has a large fleet of Embraers. When it nearly ran out of money, United bought the Embraer 175s but let Mesa continue to operate them.

On the American side, things have always been more complicated. Mesa worked with both US Airways and America West before their merger and the contract has continued until today. In recent times, the only Mesa flying beyond these two partners is a small freight contract using 737s, and there aren’t really prospects for more in today’s regional world. So you’d think having both American and United would be important to ensure Mesa’s long term survival. But apparently not.

Mesa was riding high when it scored an increase in CRJ-900 flying from US Airways just before the American merger, thanks to the airline’s famously low costs and a long-standing relationship between management teams, but it’s been downhill ever since. Looking at the recent war of words between two sides, the relationship had simply become untenable.

In 2020, with more than half the airplanes on contract expiring and American getting increasingly angry about performance issues, the airlines agreed to reduce flying to only 40 airplanes starting January 2021. Airplanes, however, weren’t the problem. Mesa just couldn’t staff the airplanes it had, and even this new contract proved to be too much.

If we assume airplanes would fly an average 10 block hours per day, Mesa held up its end of the bargain through 2021, but then…

Number of Mesa Aircraft Flying for American Assuming 10 Block Hours per Aircraft per DayData via Cirium

Mesa has really only been flying 20 to 25 airplanes for American thanks to a pilot shortage. It ended up spiking its pay rates to attract new pilots, but according to a Mesa company memo CNBC reported, American wouldn’t let Mesa pass through those higher costs so Mesa was bleeding. American had put this in motion by paying its wholly-owned regional pilots more money, so it in effect forced Mesa’s hand. Then it chopped the hand off. This was not a friendly break-up.

Mesa was now an airline with diminished flying of only about 20 airplanes, a deteriorating relationship with American, and possibly most importantly it was no longer that low-cost operator that helped it survive in the past. American finally reached a point where it felt comfortable being done.

With only about 20 airplanes needing to be replaced, American figured it could use its Air Wisconsin pilot acquisition to make this work out. In the short-term, it could supplement Air Wisconsin with additional Republic and Piedmont flying in Chicago to allow Envoy and SkyWest to move some capacity from there into DFW and Phoenix. In the long term, Envoy would grow more in Phoenix and PSA would grow more at DFW, with both airlines having announced plans to open bases in those cities.

This would allow American to wave goodbye to Mesa. Meanwhile, United, an airline desperate for more regional flying, was willing to pay those higher rates to bring Mesa’s CRJ-900s into the fold, at least, according to that Mesa company memo that was not confirmed by United. Make no mistake, however. This has nothing to do with the airplanes. You’ll hear that from many people, but it’s wrong. This is all about pilots and how quickly they can start flying passengers.

United doesn’t want CRJ-900s, but it’s the fastest way to get pilots flying. At first blush, I didn’t understand how United could take on additional 76-seaters. United’s current pilot contract has strict limits on 76-seaters capping the airline at 153. That has been split out with 65 at SkyWest, 60 at Mesa, and 28 at Republic. It can’t add more, so how do these CRJ-900s fit in?

Playing with the numbers gives us a clue. United just does not have the regional pilots to fully fly those 153 airplanes. If we assume utilization of 10 hours per day per airplane, Republic is close to full utilization in the January 2023 schedule. Mesa and SkyWest are not. But let’s focus just on Mesa.

Mesa has 60 Embraer 175s with 76 seats and 20 with 70 seats. We can’t see how those are broken out because they use the same aircraft code, but if we assume 10 block hours per airplane per day, then Mesa is only flying about 35 airplanes out of the 80 right now. Even if we assume all the 70-seaters are parked already, that means there is still room for 25 more 76-seaters. This fits quite nicely with what Mesa can offer.

It just so happens that of Mesa’s CRJ-900s, there are 23 that are owned by Mesa and are the newest build aircraft — including 7 which haven’t even hit 8 years yet. It should be easy to park 23 under-utilized E175s, paint the 23 CRJ-900s, and get them in the air just in time for Air Wisconsin to start painting its planes in American’s livery.

Why not just take the pilots and have them fly the E175s? That requires training and training takes time. Air Wisconsin is leaving soon. There is no time to lose.

Like many stories this year, this one is all about pilots. While I’m sure American would have liked to have Mesa’s 20 airplane’s worth of flying, it didn’t want them at that higher cost. American figures now is the right time to move on. For United, it needs any pilots it can find. It may have just found 20 airplanes’ worth of them, and it’s willing to pay the price.

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United Dreams Up Large Aircraft Order

United Airlines announced an order of 200 aircraft from Boeing earlier this week, split between 100 B787 Dreamliners and 100 B737 MAX aircraft. With this large order for Boeing planes, the airline is also pushing its previously announced (and often delayed) order for 45 A350s until 2030 at the earliest – or when Newark has a day when all flights run on time – whichever comes first.

The order for the 200 planes comes at a price of $43 billion based on the list price for the aircraft, but airlines rarely – if ever – pay the rack rate for aircraft when placing such a large order. The 100 MAX aircraft will be delivered beginning in 2024 with the first 44 due between then and 2026. Another 56 are scheduled to be delivered between 2027 and 2028. Including these 100 MAX, United now has a total of 443 MAX on order, all of which will one day be in a conga line, one through 443 on a taxiway in Newark awaiting takeoff clearance.

United has reached the end of the road on its widebody order book with a precious few B787-10s still on order, forcing the carrier’s hand as it looks to grow its long-haul network for the long term. Industry analysts estimate UA will spend $50 billion through to 2032 on 700 new aircraft deliveries – or roughly one billion per United passenger who prefers connecting through Newark.

American AAnnounces AAdvantage AAdjustmentsAmerican Airlines unveiled changes for its 2023 AAdvantage program with a headline claiming to offer members more rewards, more often, before and beyond reaching status – which is surely completely true with no catch at all.

The most real change is that it’s AAbandoning AAward charts, now using dynamic pricing for mileage redemptions on AA metal, while partner redemptions will still be based on a chart – for now. Elite qualification is changing for some, as gold members will require 40,000 loyalty points – up from 30,000 currently, representing a 33% jump. Basic Economy passengers will see their mileage earning slashed – as they should. Basic passengers should consider themselves lucky they’re given a seat belt and an oxygen mask over their seat. Basic fares will now earn just 2x AAdvantage miles per dollar spent, rather than the current 5x, representing a 60% drop.

AA is creating new Loyalty Point Rewards – remarkably similar to what JetBlue unveiled last week in changes for its 2023 Mosaic Program…funny how that worked out. Loyalty Choice Rewards are being rebranded as Loyalty Point Rewards, and the now 11 thresholds – up from five – can be reached immediately, with no requirement to fly 30 (or any) segments. We imagine there are tiles involved in this somehow, but we lost interest trying to figure it all out.

The lowest threshold decreased from 125,000 points to just 15,000 while the highest threshold jumped from 750,000 loyalty points all the way to five million. Those who reach 15,000 will receive Group 5 boarding for the year and can choose between priority check-in, security and group 4 boarding for one trip or five preferred seat coupons. Rewards increase at each threshold and include systemwide upgrades, AAdmirals Club DAAy passes, the ability to gift status, a free pie to throw at a Basic Economy passenger in-flight, and the chance to visit AA headquAArters in Fort Worth, get in the aircraft simulator of your choice and simulate delaying a flight for the mechanical reason of your choosing.

UK to End 100ml Liquid LimitThe UK plans to end its limit of 100ml worth of liquid – roughly 3.3 ounces – by June 2024, when the limit will expand to two liters, and passengers will be able to keep items such as laptops in their bags and not have to remove them at security checkpoints.

The dream of carrying a two-liter bottle of Sprite through a security checkpoint could actually become a reality thanks to new scanners which are more efficient at checking passenger’s baggage and will create a better experience at the security checkpoint. The scanners are currently in-use at several airports in the United States, including Atlanta and Chicago/O’Hare, but are not in nearly wide-enough use for the TSA to consider making the same change here.

The British government is requiring UK airports to have the new scanners installed and operational by June 2024 – the original deadline was pushed back because the UK didn’t want the US to have all the fun in annoucing lengthy delays thanks to its Real ID program.

Charleston Gets SpiritedCharleston, SC is getting more spirited than ever, making Spirit the 13th carrier at the airport when it inaugurates service to three destinations in April.

Spirit will begin 1x daily flights to Fort Lauderdale, Newark, and Philadelphia on April 5 with the FLL flights timed to connect to Spirit’s bank of flights to Latin America and the Caribbean. That timing is based on the idea of both the flight into and out of FLL operating on-time which is about as likely as finding a flight on Spirit where you pay more in base fare than in ancillary fees.

On the flight to Philadelphia, Spirit will compete with American and Frontier, and it’ll challenge United to Newark. The FLL route is one where it’ll be going against itself in a sense, with competition from JetBlue…and Silver. Introductory fares on the PHL route start at a base of $39, but that’s before adding a ticketing fee, the $59 Liberty Bell “fix the crack” fee, $27 “make sure you pick the right Charleston fee,” whereby otherwise Spirit reserves the right to fly to Charleston, WV, and a $10 “at least you’re not flying to Newark” fee.

Atlanta Airport Unites to Open New Gates

Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport opened a new gate area at the northern end of Concourse T for United Airlines, the first time the airport has done anything for an airline other than Delta since Eastern Airlines roamed the halls of Concourses B and C in the 70s and 80s.

The extension to the north end of Concourse T added a circular atrium at the cot of $341 million and gives United five new gates which can handle larger aircraft with a more comfortable passenger experience. United currently operates just 24 daily flights from Atlanta, down from 32 or more prior to the pandemic. With the addition of these new gates and flexibility to operate more mainline aircraft to the airport, United says it plans to expand back to the 32 daily flights operated in 2019 with room for even more growth.

The gates also gave United the ability to consolidate its entire operation at ATL onto Concourse T. The carrier previously had to spill over into Concourse E to use common-use gates at peak times to run its full operation. United will now be able to offer better customer service keeping all of its staff in one place, with the exception of Basic Economy passengers or anyone headed to Newark – either of those groups are likely beyond help anyway and will be left to fend for themselves.

• Air India is unimpressed by United’s order of 100 aircraft.
• AirAsia‘s next venture will be to create AirAsia Cambodia because what the world needs is another AirAsia subsidiary.
• American CFO Derek Kerr is retiring at the end of the year and current SVP of Finance Devon May will replace him. May’s first task on his first day will be to see where JetBlue is hiding all the mints.
• Austrian will resume 2x weekly service between Shanghai and Vienna on January 16.
• Canadian North, which despite reports to the contrary is an actual airline, is retiring its last B737-200 in Q2 next year. The end of a very, very long era.
• Delta expects to make a lot of money next year.
• Ethiopian will resume flying to Singapore with 4x weekly flights beginning on March 25.
• Eurowings Discover plans to move its entire long-haul operation to Frankfurt and use Munich as a short and medium-haul base only. This comes after careful consideration of other ideas such as bringing back Berlin/Tegel and using it as a long-haul base or shifting its entire operation to Cologne.
• Finnair isn’t out of cash. Yet.
• flynas took delivery of its widebody, an A330-300 which it will put into service immediately because when it comes to airplanes, sleep is the cousin of death.
• French Bee will be buzzing around Miami 3x weekly beginning this week.
• Hong Kong Airlines won court approval for a HK$49 billion debt restructuring plan which will see its fleet cut from 53 planes to just 20.
• Icelandair is adding 3x weekly seasonal service to Tel Aviv beginning May 10.
• JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes was in a spirited mood after receiving a two-year contract extension.
• Lufthansa will be swapping its A330-300s for A340-300 for its Frankfurt to Austin service beinning May 2. The A340 will be the first four-engine aircraft to fly to Austin since BA did so prior to the pandemic.
• Mango is closer to being sold.
• Mesa delayed its earnings release on the theory that nearly everything it does in the public eye is delayed or canceled, so what’s one more?
• Norse Atlantic is threatening to pull direct flights from Norway due to a 45% air passenger tax increase beginning in January. If the carrier follows through, it’ll change its name to Atlantic.
• Porter can’t be stopped. we can only hope to contain it. It’s adding four new destinations out of Ottawa for its Dash-8 fleet, three of which have be confirmed as actual places at press time: Boston, Newark, Quebec City, and Thunder Bay. Meanwhile, it’s also beginning service between Toronto/Pearson and Calgary. YYC will mark Porter’s second destination in Alberta, and 2x daily flights will begin February 22.
• Ryanair uncorked quite a schedule for service out of Cork next summer.
• SpiceJet is having the heat turned up by regulators from both the ICAO and Indian goverment.
• Southwest is trialing family boarding at select gates in Atlanta. Families have the option to board together prior to A Group, but with the caveat that they must take seats behind the exit row.
• SWISS is replacing its aging fleet of A340s with A350-900 beginning in 2025. The countdown is on.
• TUI is repaying $775 million of bailout money it received back to the German government.
• Virgin Australia will begin daily service between Cairns and Tokyo/Haneda beginning June 28. For an airline that stopped long-haul flying, this is an awfully long short-haul.
• WestJet plans to begin cargo operations in March.
• Wizz Air will begin 3x weekly service between Rome/FCO and Luxembourg on August 1.

A truck loaded with Vicks Vaporub overturned on the highway right at the start of rush hour yesterday afternoon. Amazingly there was no congestion for eight solid hours.

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Boom’s Overture supersonic airplane has been in development for a very long time. And while the company has kept a wildly unrealistic very optimistic timetable — expecting entry into service by the end of the decade — few were willing to believe anything until there was an engine to actually power the airplane. And now… there is. Well, sort of. I mean, it’s closer to an engine than it was before. And this rendering looks pretty cool, so there’s that.

Rendering via Boom

This is not the usual kind of thing I write about, but I’m just so utterly fascinated and perplexed by the attempt to return to supersonic travel that I just couldn’t look away. Boom had planned originally on working with Rolls-Royce to develop an engine, but that partnership fell apart earlier this year.

Why? Well…

After careful consideration, Rolls-Royce has determined that the commercial aviation supersonic market is not currently a priority for us and, therefore, will not pursue further work on the program at this time.

The story behind the failure of the partnership is probably juicy enough for a made-for-TV movie somewhere down the line. Or maybe not. But this rupture did mean Boom would have to look in another direction. And now, it has found that direction with a trio of companies that you probably didn’t even know made engines or had anything to do with them. I’m told some of them may even be actual enterprises with real employees.

• Florida Turbine Technologies (FTT) will handle design and is not to be confused with ITT Tech
• GE Additive will do “additive technology design consulting” so its name is apparently accurate for whatever it is that it does
• StandardAero will work on the maintenance side and is a company I’ve heard of

The new engine has now been deemed “Symphony” which is probably what you’d like to hear instead of a loud sonic Boom when the plane flies overhead. But what is this engine?

It’s nothing, yet, but it will be, uh, well, if you like word salads… “Symphony will be a bespoke design leveraging proven technologies and materials to achieve optimal supersonic performance and efficiency.”

That says a lot of nothing, so let’s get into the nitty gritty here. I want to know what the real plan is. And it’s hard to dig through all the consultanty words here, so let’s try and break this down into smaller pieces, starting with the technical details they’ve released.

Architecture: twin-spool, medium-bypass turbofan engine, no afterburner

This has been the trend of recent attempts to develop a more efficient supersonic engine. It’s what the GE Affinity was going to be before GE abandoned the project when its primary purpose — powering the Aerion supersonic business jet — disappeared. The Aerion would have been easier to develop for, because it was a tiny airplane and likely only needed an engine with 15,000 to 20,000 lbs of thrust unlike the 35,000 lbs that the Overture is said to need. But the Aerion project failed spectacularly and GE quit working on the engine.

That should be a red flag right there. Boom could have taken the Affinity work and in theory put it into a bigger engine for the Overture, but GE thought it was a better plan to just stop and walk away. Now, FTT will try to rebuild something GE couldn’t be bothered with.

But beyond basic regular commercial aircraft engine characteristics, three big things will be different.

Boom-designed axisymmetric supersonic intakeAir comes into a jet engine and passes through, but if you have a wider range of possible speeds ranging from takeoff/landing speeds to higher Mach numbers at cruise, then it would help to be able to alter the shape of the air intake to optimize how much air enters the engine and directing how it will behave. Here’s an image that helped me to understand it better from a 1955 NACA research study.

A variable-geometry low-noise exhaust nozzleThe intake is up front and the exhaust is in the back. This would allow the direction of the exhaust to be shifted as needed at different speeds to make sure the airplane is optimized for performance. It also will apparently help keep noise down.

A passively cooled high-pressure turbineI understood at least some words in this unrelated press release, but I think what it’s saying is that by using newer materials, an engine can avoid needing to be actively cooled with a heat exchanger and can instead be passively cooled. That reduces weight and complexity… if it works.

Most of the rest if fluff, including the part saying it will be “optimized for 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel.” (SAF buzzword unlocked ) But that doesn’t mean there isn’t more heft behind it.

The next question is… can these three partners deliver? And that’s a tough one to feel confident about right now.

FTT has leading supersonic engine design expertise, including key engineers among the team responsible for the design of the F-119 and F-135 supersonic engines that power the F-22 and F-35..

FTT will be leading the way on design, and it appears there are some engineers on the team that have designed engines for supersonic military aircraft. It should be noted, of course, that military supersonic engines are world-renowned for being fuel efficient and quiet.

FTT was mostly bought out by Kratos Defense back in 2019, a proud member of the military industrial complex which does some super secret stuff. It’s hard to glean exactly what FTT brings to the table, so I will simply say this… the president’s name is Stacey Rock, and that’s a bad-ass name.

Next up is GE Additive. “Additive” is, coincidentally, the opposite of what GE has been doing to its portfolio businesses for many, many years now.

Symphony will benefit from GE Additive’s proven track record of designing additively manufactured engine components—enabling more streamlined development, reduced weight, and improved fuel efficiency.

This is a real thing… it’s basically 3D printing, but an advanced and super cool version of it. In short GE Additive can make components lighter and more efficient since the process involves building from nothing instead of traditional methods. But I don’t know what additive technology design consulting means. Does that mean they will just advise on which parts can be made this way in the design process? I guess so. Maybe that’ll result in actual manufacturing, but none of that has been announced yet.

And finally…

StandardAero will ensure that Symphony is designed for maintainability.

This seems like a good thing. So I guess FTT will propose a design and StandardAero will say “are you insane? You can’t make the nacelle out of uranium, we’ll never be able to maintain that.”

Boom is saying the right things here, but saying and doing are two very different issues. This announcement suggests that the big engine companies aren’t taking Boom seriously, so the company has had to dig deep to find anyone willing to help. Even with this, the company says first flight will be in 2027, and I haven’t seen anything saying entry into service will be delayed beyond this decade. That seems nearly impossible.

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The 2023 Cranky Network Awards presented by Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport is only 10 weeks away, and it’s time to start getting excited. (This, of course, assumes you weren’t already excited, which we find hard to believe.) We will be descending on the Valley of the Sun to award the best in airline network planning in the US and Canada on Thursday, February 23. But before we get there, we need some help from you.

Each year, we have our core award categories — the ones you know and love like Sexiest New Route and the big one, Most Improved Network — but we also have to respond to the trends in the industry over the previous year by swapping some old categories out for new ones.

Though the full list has yet to be finalized, there are two categories — one new and one legacy — for which we’d like to enlist your help in choosing nominees this year. Those are:

Most Clever Flight NumberThis category rewards the art of choosing flight numbers. Since we are in our third year, we aren’t looking for the basic “flight 1492 goes to Columbus” kind of thing. For example, last year, United won for using 510 on its new Newark – Rome flight to match the year the Roman republic got its start.

Please submit your nominations in the comments section or by emailing cna@crankyflier.com

Best Airport PartnerThis is a new category, and we really need help from you network planners out there. (We know you’re reading, say it with pride.) You work with airports every single day, and some are great partners while others… are not quite great. We want to hear which airports deserve to be held up on a pedestal for doing it right.

Please submit your nominations by emailing cna@crankyflier.com (or just emailing whatever address you have for me on file.)

The 2023 show is shaping up to be another great one. Airlines who have confirmed their attendance so far for this year include Alaska, Allegiant, American, Cape Air, Delta, Denver Air Connection, Flair, Landline (yes, it counts as an airline, damnit), Southwest, Spirit, Sun Country, and United with several more expected to be added on once they learn if they’ve been nominated or not.

We have a great group of sponsors already signed on for 2023 with room for only a couple more. Thanks to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport for being our presenting sponsor and host this year AND for promising that this event will far exceed the energy and excitement generated by that little football game that will be played in town just a couple weeks earlier.

Sponsors already on-board for this year include The Arizona Office of Tourism, Boeing, Cirium, IDEMIA, Medjet, Oakland International Airport, Pittsburgh International Airport, and Visit Phoenix. If you’re interested in being a sponsor of the 2023 Cranky Network Awards, contact us at cna-sponsor@crankyflier.com.

While we won’t be selling tickets publicly to the show, we are still planning to do a limited number of auction tickets. Just keep your eyes on the blog to learn when that happens. And if you can’t make it this year, well, that’s a shame. But know that we are already working hard to secure a site for the 2024 show and hope to be able to announce that at the 2023 event.

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The worst kept secret in recent memory is now official. Today, United announced it is ordering 100 Boeing 787s, adding options for 100 more, converting 44 Boeing 737 MAX options into orders, and adding another 56 MAX orders on to the pile.

Even though this sounds like a completely insane number of airplanes, it’s really not. United is a big international airline that went through a lengthy spell of completely ignoring its fleet while former CEO Glenn Tilton tried to reverse engineer the airline into giving him a giant payday. Because of that, United has fallen severely behind, and its fleet is getting old.

This isn’t a perfect chart, but it’s pretty close. By the end of this year, United should have right around 220 widebodies and other than some distant A350s technically still on order, there is nothing left to be delivered.

United Widebody Aircraft by Aircraft Delivery DateData via Cirium

Remember that part about United neglecting its fleet? You can see exactly where that happened, but it’s actually understated. Keep in mind that many of those orders around the turn of the millennium — including all the 767-400s — were from Continental, not pre-merger United.

If you count it up, right around 120 of United’s widebodies are at least 20 years old. Those all absolutely need to have a replacement plan set, and that is what United is doing with this order. The 767s will all be gone by 2030, though these airplanes will start phasing out earlier as newer airplanes come in. (Those are the oldest widebodies in the fleet by far.)

The 777-200s will start phasing out later this decade, starting with the oldest airplanes in the fleet which are primarily those old Pratt & Whitney-powered “A” models with limited range.

The second 100 airplanes that United has on option… those are for growth opportunities, if they materialize. But since they’re just options, this will provide some flexibility and presumably help solidify delivery positions if the need arises. Plus, 200 sounds a lot bigger than 100, so Boeing probably knocked a little bit more off the price to show that people actually do still want to buy its airplanes.

And flexibility… there is some here. I mean, sure you’re buying 100 airplanes so you lose some flex in your options, but United does not have to make any decisions on the variant for the 787 orders yet. It can adjust those depending upon what it needs further down the line. I’d put my money more on 787-9s and -10s, but you never know what’ll happen by the time the decision has to be made.

I can’t imagine many, if any, of us are surprised that the Boeing 787 won the day over the A350 here. As United laid out on a call yesterday, there were just too many things going for the 787. First, it’s smaller than an A350 and to replace the 767s, United needs something on the smaller end. Sure, there are the A330neos in the market, but that adds more complexity. United was clear to explain on the call that already having a large base of 787s, needing to onboard a ton of pilots, and introducing a new fleet type does not sound like a recipe for efficiency.

Does this mean the 45-aircraft A350 order that has been on the books forever is dead? Nope. United said when the time comes to figure out a replacement plan for the 777-300ERs toward the end of the decade — which seems early — that’s when the A350 may make more sense.

I don’t think I really buy that line, but Airbus probably likes having the A350 on the order book, so no reason to cancel. Just keep pushing it out further and further. One thing does seem pretty clear… there’s no way those airplanes will be delivered in 2027 as currently scheduled.

With this order firmed up, United now has its fleet replacement plan in place through the end of the decade and beyond. That doesn’t mean there can’t be more orders to come, however.

Take the 737 MAX order. I asked what had changed between the last massive MAX order and now to make the airline decide it needed another 100 of them (mixing exercising options and new purchases). The response was that this was just really pushing planning further out. These MAXs are for the 2027/28 timeline, so as they extend the horizon beyond the original United Next plan, they find they want more planes.

With hundreds of these on order already, I don’t see why it makes sense to add more to the mix now… unless… wait, did Boeing roll out the ole’ “buy two 787s, get one 1 MAX free” holiday sweet dreams fiesta? Can’t turn that bargain down.

At first glance, this whole order is a big scary number. It requires a lot of cash and/or debt to buy these airplanes. But once you start going deeper and looking at the reality of the situation, this had to happen — at least, the widebody part of it. Previous generations of neglectful management put the airline in a place where it had to play catch-up.

In a sense, you could compare this to a decade ago when then-American CEO Gerard Arpey tried to make up for years of scrimping and saving by American’s leadership by placing a big order. Ok, granted, that was a split narrowbody order, and he was about to lose his job anyway, but you get the point.

With United’s orderbook now flush and a continuous evaluation of the airline’s longer term needs in place, it should help United to actually better plan for the future instead of just buying another roll of speed tape and hoping the 767s will keep flying for another decade.

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Porter is not a new airline, having flown the Canadian skies since 2006. Back then, it was the idea of launching a base at Toronto’s close-in City Airport (now named after Billy Bishop) that created a nice little niche for the company. But now, the airline is changing… rapidly.

After announcements made last week regarding Porter’s new product and routes, we can now get a sense of where the new Porter is going.

The old Porter was a short-haul, primarily business-focused airline. It deployed Q400s that now seat 78 passengers, because that’s really the best choice it had if it wanted to serve Toronto/City. That airport was barred from being served by jets, but it was and is remarkably convenient. More importantly, it allowed travelers to avoid some pretty frightening terrain between Toronto and the city’s primary Pearson airport.

With this, Porter succeeded, but it was very clearly a short-haul airline that was so dependent on business travel that it actually just shut down completely for a year and a half from the dawn of the pandemic until September 2021.

Over the years, Porter has expanded beyond its original sole focus on Toronto City. Here’s the January 2023 map:

Porter Airlines Network January 2023Map via Cirium

Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax are now notable, if not enormous, focus cities for the airline. But with only 29 Q400s, there was only so far Porter could go. If it had more Q400s, it couldn’t do much more anyway thanks to range limitations. So it hatched a plan.

Porter decided to order 30 Embraer 195-E2s in 2021 and add purchase rights for 50 more. There had been talk of allowing these new, quiet jets to use Toronto City airport, but that was shot down. Instead of backing away, Porter went all-in. This year it added another 20 aircraft to the original order. I’m no mathemetician, but adding 50 jets on top of the 29 in the fleet already seems like a pretty big gamble of an expansion.

Unable to serve its home base and sole reason for existence with these airplanes, Porter backed itself into a sticky situation of its own making. It had no choice but to effectively create a new reason to live, a way to justify these airplanes joining the fleet. We just didn’t know what that would be until last week.

The first announcement was about changes to the airline’s onboard product. Porter has always been a coach-only airline, but it had different fare types ranging from a basic economy offering to an all-in flexible fare. Porter always tried to “fancy it up” a bit by having free beer and wine onboard the short flights to complement the ease of use of Toronto/City.

Those levels will all remain, but they will now be lumped under the PorterClassic brand. On the Q400s, 72 of the 78 seats will be sold under that brand along with 118 of the 132 seats on the E2s. The rest of the seats? Those will fall under a nearly-premium-economy offering called PorterReserve.

Porter very firmly calls this still an economy product. The seats, in fact, will be exactly the same whether in Classic or Reserve, a relatively easy decision since the airplanes are 2-2 across already. But other than that, it looks more like a premium economy or domestic business class-style offering.

• Fresh meals included on the E2s with better snacks on the Q400s
• Cocktails/spirits now included
• Access to the dedicated check-in lanes currently used by elite frequent fliers
• Early boarding
• Extra legroom (36 inches of pitch on the E2 and 32 inches of pitch on the Q400)
• Two checked bags included
• No change fee

On the E2, this is being done because the airplane will be running longer distances than the Q400s. For that reason, Porter will also have free wifi that allows streaming on all of its E2s (from Viasat).

Porter didn’t want to go with a true premium economy product that would require going to 1-2 across instead of 2-2. The reality is that most people probably don’t care that much as long as there aren’t middle seats, and this will allow Porter to try to carve out a niche with lower premium fares than you’ll find on WestJet or Air Canada.

On the Q400, PorterReserve is being offered primarily so that Porter can have a connecting product that will allow people to go from the E2 to the Q400 and have a similar experience. If you’re curious, all Porter had to do was move row 1 up a little to make sure that the six seats in rows 1 and 2 all have 32 inches of pitch, 2 more than in the back.

All of this sounds interesting, but it means nothing until we know where the airplanes will fly. As I understand it, there will be many drips of new routes over the coming months, but we now know the first additions on the E2 and they all involve passengers traversing the dangerous home of the trash panda to get to Pearson.

• Toronto/Pearson – Ottawa starts Feb 1, 4x daily
• Toronto/Pearson – Montreal starts Feb 1, going to 4x daily by Feb 7
• Toronto/Pearson – Vancouver starts Feb 7, going to 3x daily by Mar 21

This really doesn’t tell us much since it appears to be more about building blocks than anything else. Still, in a world where most growth comes from ULCCs, this does stand out for several reasons.

There is pretty hefty frequency to start off. Vancouver is a brand new route, so that may make more sense. But the other routes have a ton of service from City airport today. This is probably more about getting pilot hours, familiarity, and all that before the rest comes. But this is very clearly a business, high frequency focus.

If that’s not clear enough, there are no $29 fares here. Ottawa and Montreal will have intro fares starting at C$225 roundtrip while Vancouver is at C$248, which is about US$4, give or take a hundred or two. This is a good fare, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not a crazy ULCC barn-burner kind of fare.

In one sense, it’s refreshing to see an offering come out that’s not just about how cheap it can possibly be. On the other hand, these are very competitive markets that are going to be a very, very tough to make a dent in. Will there be enough demand in this “value-focused” segment, where value actually means something different than just “cheap”?

This is just the start, and we know more is coming. It’s hard to say how this is going to go, but it is at least a thoughtful attempt at trying to crack a non-ULCC space. I just don’t know how much room there is in this space, but I’m sure looking forward to finding out.

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This is The True Story of the Federal Government When it Stops Being Polite…and Starts Getting Real

The federal government delayed implementing its requirement for travelers to obtain a REAL ID another two years – pushing the start of the requirement to at least May 2025. This at least the fifth delay after Congress passed the REAL ID Act in 2005, with implementation at one point expected to begin as far back as 2008.

More recently, it was slated to begin in October 2020, before COVID-19 delays pushed it back to October 2021, then May 2023, and now May 2025. The Department of Homeland Security cited “lingering impacts of the pandemic” as a reason for the continued delay, with government officials meeting to determine just how long they can use the pandemic as a reason for delaying REAL ID. Some in DHS are reportedly planning to use it as an excuse for ineptitude for at least the rest of the decade.

DHS Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas said the extension would give states more time to ensure their residents can comply with the law, while also giving the federal government more time to think of new and creative reasons to delay the process while simultaneous pissing off everyone who stood in line at the DMV because they thought they needed this stupid thing.

The DHS updated the countdown to REAL ID implementation on its website, with the idea that if it’s delayed one more time, the government will create a full-time position dedicated exclusively to updating the countdown on the site.

JetBlue Updates Mosaic TiersJetBlue Airways announced dramatic changes to its TrueBlue loyalty program on Wednesday designed to create maximum confusion amongst customers and create dissension amongst its elite ranks.

For starters, the carrier will now base status on tiles, giving an obvious leg up to any members of the program who play Scrabble, mahjong, or any other tile-based games. Previously the TrueBlue program offered points, and don’t worry, those aren’t going away. Instead, JetBlue will just add tiles to the mix in order to confuse you more. Tiles can be earned by spend – one tile for every $100 spend on JetBlue (including airfare, fees, and vacation packages), and one tile per $1,000 spent with JetBlue-branded credit cards.

At 50 tiles, a member would achieve the lowest elite tier cleverly named “Level 1.” Level 2 will be 100 tiles, Level 3 at 150 tiles, and the rarified air of Level 4 begins at 250 tiles. Level 1 members get priority boarding, complimentary checked bags, and extra legroom seats at check-in. Level 2 gets the Level 1 benefits plus extra legroom seats at booking, and Level 3 adds four minty-fresh upgrade certificates valid at booking.

Level 4 members include all previous benefits, two more upgrade certificates for Mint, a credit for four Blade helicopter transfers from Manhattan to JFK or Newark, and a JetBlue non-elite customer will come place an actual mint on your pillow at home every night before bed. As an unpublished benefit, it is believed those members will also receive a one year supply of Tilex mold and mildew remover to spray on lesser customers who dare sit next to any Level 4.

Non-elite members will also be able to earn perks, with a choice coming every ten tiles. Options include Group B boarding, priority security, one free booze option per flight, or the opportunity to place a mint on pillows in the homes of Level 4 elite members.

JetBlue, American Become Further Aligned in the NortheastNortheast Alliance besties American Airlines and JetBlue Airways announced 10 new routes between the two out of New York/LGA and one more from of Boston as the pair become more entrenched in their alliance.

JetBlue is adding four new destinations from LGA:

• Atlanta (4x daily)
• Bermuda (1x daily, summer only)
• Hyannis (1x daily, summer only)
• Nassau (1x daily)

Most notably, JetBlue’s 4x daily service to Atlanta will completely replace AA’s presence on the route, with American ending its 4x daily E-175 service in favor of JetBlue. JetBlue’s 5th addition is seasonal service between Boston and Vancouver to begin sometime next year just as soon as JetBlue can locate a 2023 calendar and figure out just exactly where Vancouver is.

American is adding six new cities from LGA, all of which will operate year-round:

• Birmingham (1x daily)
• Buffalo (3x daily)
• Columbia (1x daily)
• Grand Rapids (1x daily)
• Greenville-Spartanburg (2x daily)
• Knoxville (1x daily)

American will go head-to-head with Delta on each of the six routes as the Atlanta-based carrier is currently the only airline operating to all six locations from LGA. Along with these additions, American is also expanding seasonal service from LGA to Asheville, NC to operate year-round and adding an additional daily frequency between Boston and Louisville.

UK Border Force Offers Coal in Travelers’ StockingsThe UK’s Public and Commercial Services union (PCS) voted on Wednesday to strike for eight days this month between the 23rd and 31st of December. The walkout includes Border Force staff who check passports at immigration checkpoints at six of the largest airports in the country, including both London/Heathrow and London/Gatwick, plus Birmingham, Cardiff, Manchester, and Glasgow.

Approximately 2,000-3,000 staff members will be involved in the labor action with a goal of causing backups at border checkpoints over the Christmas holiday. UK Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick said his ministry is working with the airports to have plans in place to minimize delays if the strike occurs, but stressed that passengers should still expect delays and travel disruptions.

Traveling by rail won’t be an easy alternative for those looking to avoid the disruption at the airport, with more than 40,000 railway workers expected to walk out of their jobs over the next several weeks as well. LGW officials said the airport expects to operate as normal on those days and that it would make extra airport staff available as needed with minimal disruption since “most travelers prefer Heathrow anyway, so those who travel with us are already miserable.”

EU Approves Limited French Domestic Flight Ban

The European Commission approved a partial version of a French law banning domestic air service on flights with feasible rail alternatives, impacting… three domestic routes in the country.

The French parliament voted the bill into law in the summer of 2021, with a goal of ending air service on all routes where a train ride would take less than 2 ½ hours. The idea was to reduce carbon emissions and other environmental strains on routes which operated several times per day in the air but were just as accessible – if not moreso – via train. Anti-competition watchdogs railed against the bill, concerned that it would limit options for consumers and lead to rising prices, possibly pricing some operators out of business. The EU eventually agreed that the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions outweighed the competitive losses on three routes from Paris/Orly, while keeping other options on the table for the future.

The limited version of the law approved by the EU sees three routes from Orly going away – to Bordeaux, Nantes, and Lyon. Nothing from Paris/CDG was touched – yet – with CDG to Rennes and Lyon plus Lyon to Marseilles potentially on the chopping block if rail service on those routes is improved.

• Aeroflot passengers will need to bring a book if they want something to do on their next narrowbody flight.
• Air Canada will return to New York/JFK in March with double-daily service to Toronto and 1x daily flights to Montreal, making it the only Canadian carrier to serve all three NYC airports.
• Air Greenland took delivery of an A330-800neo, the second widebody in its fleet.
• ANA is upping its service from Tokyo/Narita to Honolulu to include 5x weekly flights on its fleet of A380 aircraft.
• British Airways is reducing cash surcharges on some Avios award bookings to only require customers to offer up their first-born child and not their first two children.
• Cathay Pacific reopened its lounged at Tokyo/Haneda.
• Cinnamon Air is resuming scheduled seaplane service December 15 while officials are also denying rampant rumors of a planned merger with Indian carrier SpiceJet.
• easyJet avoided a cabin crew strike by its France-based staff after making the easy decision to offer them a raise.
• French Bee plans to expand to a new, secret, unnamed U.S. destination in 2023 which it will announce just as soon as it decides what it is,
• flydubai announced new daily service to St. Petersburg beginning January 20. The flight will be starting just in-time for those wanting to leave the warmth and economic prosperity of Dubai for Russia in January.
• Gulf Air wants to resume flying to the United States by 2025.
• Hong Kong Airlines will be restructuring.
• Icelandair scooped up its first converted B767-300 freighter.
• ITA moved one step closer to acknowledging customers are better off taking a bus than flying the airline, announcing a codeshare with Itabus to Rome/FCO on 2x daily bus service from both Pescara and Perugia.
• Jetstar finally agreed to move from Terminal 1 to Terminal 4 in Singapore, effective March 22.
• Porter is launching a new product named PorterReserve which provides access to the first four rows of the economy cabin, premium snacks on flights longer than 2.5 hours, and an opportunity to fly the plane for 30 minutes. Its legacy product will now be called PorterClassic, which offers the chance to buy the food offered for free in PorterReserve, sit in the fifth row or further back, and complimentary phone access to the clergy of your choice while the PorterReserve customers fly the airplane.
• Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary received a contract extension through 2028, O’Leary’s extended deal includes an increase in base salary and bonuses tied to how many ridiculous fees the carrier thinks up and implements in the next four years.
• Southwest might offer faster WiFi as soon as next year, but it needs to unplug the router on each of its aircraft and plug it back in first. The carrier also is reinstating quarterly dividends, offering up $0.18 cents per share after market close on January 31.
• WestJet announced its first nonstop service to Asia from Calgary when it begins 3x weekly seasonal service to Tokyo/Narita on April 30.

I had two fingers cut off my right hand after an accident at work. I asked my doctor if I would still be able to write with the hand despite the injury and she said: “maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it.”

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The Long Beach Airport noise ordinance is far from straightforward, but it has coveted grandfathered status which allows it to continue to restrict traffic at the airport while most other airports cannot. Now, the airport has informed the city council that it will add 5 more daily flights to the mix, and it’s pretty much entirely because JetBlue is gone. Allow me to explain…

The noise ordinance allows for 41 permanent daily air carrier slot pairs at the airport along with 25 daily commuter slots. (The commuter slots are for aircraft under a certain weight, translating into any 50 seaters, most larger turboprops, and the CRJ-700 qualifying. But nobody uses them currently, so we will just ignore them.)

The 41 slots are not meant as a ceiling but rather as a baseline. The point of the noise ordinance is to limit noise to be at or below the levels allowed in the noise bucket. If the noise is far enough below that limit, then more slots can be added.

For many years, the number stayed at 41, and for nearly 20 years, those were dominated by JetBlue. JetBlue tried a ton of different schedule configurations as it grasped over and over to make the airport profitable for the airline. Its last gasp was to try to get a customs facility, but the city shot that down. JetBlue was left squatting on slots and just hoping it could find a way to not lose money at the airport.

Then the airport started flexing the muscles of the noise ordinance rules. In December 2015, it announced the noise budget would allow the airport to add 9 new daily slots to make an even 50. This was the opening Southwest had waited for, so it put its hat in the ring. It received 4 of the slots, and that was the proverbial camel’s nose under the tent. With JetBlue still squatting and underutilizing slots, Southwest was able to temporarily borrow them per airport rules, so it kept growing.

JetBlue decided to mount a defense. It ramped up its slot usage significantly in early 2017, trying to cut Southwest off. This is where our story really begins. This data below says it all.

Operations and Noise Violations at Long Beach AirportData via Cirium

JetBlue’s efforts to ramp up didn’t work for the airline, but it also resulted in an operational mess. There are reductions in noise allowances between 10pm and 11pm but then it gets much more strict from 11pm to 7am. JetBlue, with its poor operation, repeatedly violated noise rules and got itself into hot water. The community was angry, but that was nothing new. JetBlue had been doing this for so long that it came to a special settlement that required it to pay money to the city libraries every time it broke the rules.

JetBlue ran this higher level operation through August of 2018 before pulling back down again and returning to squatting on slots. You can see what that did for violations overnight. But the slot-squatting finally became too much to stand. In December 2018, the airport announced airlines had to better utilize their slots or they’d lose them permanently. JetBlue decided to just fly its smaller schedule and give back the slots it had to return. In April 2019, Southwest was able to put those to good use and grow more.

Meanwhile, the airport continued to do its annual noise study, and in December 2019, it said it could add another 3 daily flights, going up to 53 daily. That lookback period had covered the time after JetBlue reduced its flying. With fewer violations, the airport acted and added more.

Of course, when the pandemic hit, nobody needed all those slots anyway. But for JetBlue, this was the end of the line. JetBlue’s final departure from Long Beach happened on October 6, 2020. Southwest was then able to double its presence overnight. Since that time, noise violations have virtually disappeared as Southwest has respected the limits and scheduled flights properly. The two airlines could not have acted more differently in this regard, and this has now paid dividends for Southwest.

In a recently-released memo to the Long Beach City Council, airport director Cynthia Guidry announced the airport would add 5 more daily slots. The noise review was completed internally and by two separate consulting firms for the period of October 1, 2021 through September 30, 2022. I’ll lift this chart showing just how far under the noise budget the airport has been at the two main “remote monitoring terminal” stations.

via City of Long Beach

You can read the memo for full details, but what this shows is that the airport has not just snuck under the top of the noise bucket but rather it is WAY under.

At first, I was surprised to see flights added. After all, the airport still hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic, and so I figured the noise from air carriers was likely misleadingly low. But that’s why the airport was actually pretty conservative here.

The initial study said the airport should add 6 daily slots. The peer review of that data said that the number should be between 5 and 7 daily. The airport went on the low end and decided 5 was the right number.

There’s no real reason to think this will somehow blow up the noise budget, but of course, if it does, then the airport will take slots back. There’s a reason these supplemental slots are only given for one year at a time. Considering how much room is left in the noise bucket, it seems unlikely that these additions will have a big impact… unless some airline decides to start blowing through the curfew all the time to spike the numbers.

If JetBlue were still in the market, that would seem like a foregone conclusion. But none of the airlines in the market today are going to run an operation like that. Or at least, they aren’t going to schedule their flights to allow a poor operation to ruin everything.

So now, the airport goes out to the airlines to see who wants them. My guess is that it’s Southwest, Southwest, and Southwest.

Technically, there are 5 airlines on the waiting list.

1. Breeze Airways
2. Swoop
3. American Airlines
4. Hawaiian Airlines
5. Southwest Airlines

Breeze had other slots that it never used, instead opting to use the slots it picked up in Orange County. It seems unlikely it will want these.

I suppose Swoop is a possibility, and if Swoop really wanted to fly in the market, it could get 2 slots. American just gave back a slot, so it can’t be interested. And Hawaiian seems pretty content with its 2 slots, though I’m pretty sure everyone would be happy to see the airline take more.

Regardless of who benefits, they can all thank JetBlue for walking away. The vastly improved operation at the airport that followed JetBlue’s departure allowed opportunity for more flights to come right on in.

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It has been a long time since Hawaiian has announced a new route, but I’m happy to say that day has finally come again. Hawaiian will begin flying from Honolulu to Raratonga in the Cook Islands starting in May. This may not be a huge move for the airline, but it’s an interesting one nonetheless that showcases the value of the A321neo.

At one point in its history, Hawaiian used to have a relatively robust South Pacific network. That last existed in the early 1990s when, according to Cirium T100 data, the airline flew…

• Honolulu – Apia (Samoa) 1x weekly
• Honolulu – Nuku’alofa (Tonga) 1x weekly
• Honolulu – Pago Pago (American Samoa) 3-4x weekly
• Honolulu – Papeete (Tahiti, French Polynesia) 2x weekly
• Honolulu – Raratonga (Cook Islands) 1x biweekly
• Los Angeles – Pago Pago 1x weekly
• Pago Pago – Apia 1x weekly
• Pago Pago – Nuku’alofa 2x weekly
• Pago Pago – Raratonga 1x biweekly

That is an impressive presence, but to put it in context, here’s the map.

By March of 1993, all of those routes had disappeared except for Honolulu – Pago Pago and Papeete. What happened? This beautiful bird stopped flying…

Dean Faulkner, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Hawaiian used its fleet of DC-8-62s to ply the Pacific. The airplane was retired in April 1993 according to T100 data. Those last rotations were between Honolulu and both Pago Pago and Papeete, the two remaining Pacific routes that would transition to other fleets. Everything else just disappeared since only a much larger widebody was available to fly the routes. There just wasn’t enough demand.

With Pago Pago losing all that service to other islands, it was dropped down to 2-3x weekly from Honolulu, first on the L-1011 until July 1994 when the DC-10 took over. In Feb 2003 it moved to the 767-300ER and finally to the A330-200 in Feb 2018. With the service being government-supported, that wasn’t going to go away.

Papeete is a different story since it is commercially supported, I believe. The L-1011 had flown during peak times even when the DC-8s were still around. They took over for good in May 1993, operating 1x weekly. As with Pago Pago, the DC-10 took over in 1994 and the 767 in 2003. But the A330 moved into Papeete much earlier, in Nov 2013. During pre-pandemic times, frequency doubled up to 2x weekly.

After the pandemic, Pago Pago stabilized at 2x weekly with Papeete at 1x weekly, both on the A330.

So, what is bringing on the move to return to Raratonga? There just happens to finally be a smaller narrowbody back in the fleet that can handle the distance.

When Hawaiian bought the A321neo, it wanted to fly to smaller mainland cities from Honolulu that couldn’t support service on bigger widebodies. It also wanted to use the neo on thinner routes that couldn’t support a widebody year-round and to strengthen flying to neighbor islands from the mainland. It was noted as an opportunity but not a priority that Hawaiian could use these to expand its South Pacific network as well.

Raratonga sites 2,926 miles south of Honolulu, just about the same distance as Phoenix. That is well within the A321neo’s range.

Hawaiian will fly the route only once a week on a seemingly-odd schedule. The airplane will leave Honolulu Saturday afternoon at 4pm and arrive Raratonga the same day at 10:25pm. It will then sit for over 24 hours, leaving Raratonga Sunday night at 11:35pm, getting back to Honolulu at 5:50am on Monday morning.

Why sit for 24 hours? It can’t just be crew rest. Pilots can’t fly all the way to Raratonga and then turn back to Honolulu on the same duty day. It’s too far. I would think they could fly back in the morning after an overnight rest, but they aren’t doing that. So I reached out to Hawaiian to ask and it confirmed some of my suspicions.

It was a combination of factors, including a longer stage length and block time (compared with PPT and PPG), crew rest needs associated with the narrowbody, and our desire to ensure a variety of two-way connections.

I figured the crew rest issues had something to do with it. Hawaiian can turn the A330 around on the Papeete trip, but that is an A330 which has flat beds. I’m guessing they can deadhead pilots down in a flat bed and then they can fly it back. The neos, however, don’t have flat beds. Maybe some pilots in the group can confirm if that’s a deal-breaker.

But let’s also not underestimate the last bit there about ensuring two way connections. Going south is easy, most destinations get flights in by mid-day and that will turn just fine into a southbound trip. Going north, however, if it was a morning departure after the shortest possible rest period, then the flight would get in and miss that afternoon bank where the most flights back to the mainland operate. Someone must have decided it was worth it to delay the flight home by about half a day so that it could arrive in the morning and connect back to the mainland same day.

Who that someone is… I wonder. I would be surprised if the Cook Islands wasn’t putting money into this effort. After all, it spends a fair bit keeping Air New Zealand flying from Los Angeles to Raratonga once weekly. Or at least, it did. Air New Zealand had flown that route since 2007. It’s the only Pacific Island flight that remains on the airline to the US, and Air NZ used to have an enormous network there. But, that flight has not flown since the dawn of the pandemic, and it’s hard to know if it will ever return.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Hawaiian is now going to replace Air NZ as the preferred way to get to the US. If the Cooks are funding this, then that means it’s a no-lose situation. Even better, it can be a proving ground for other possible deployments of the neo in the South Pacific. If this works on its own merits, maybe more will come.

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.We know you missed us during our Thanksgiving hiatus, but we are back, and we are ready to talk about airlines again. Ok, so I’m only partially ready… I’ve been battling quite the cold. I apologize for the sound of my voice on this episode.

This week, Dave and I talk about Frontier’s GoWild! all-you-can-fly pass. And even though we ask the question in the title about whether it’s worth it, what we really mean is… is it worth it for Dave to buy the pass for next year?

Dave is a millennial with no children. This kind of pass might be perfect. Or it might not be. You’ll just have to listen in and see what he decides.

Email Dave here to tell him why he made the wrong choice.

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Delta Puts the Squeeze on SkyClub Access

Access to Delta SkyClubs since the summer has been in higher demand than Taylor Swift tickets, and getting into one has been harder than buying a ticket to the Eras World Tour on Ticketmaster. Delta knows it has a problem, and it is cutting access around the edges, trying to control capacity without addressing the American Express card-sized elephant in the room.

Delta is eliminating access for its own elites on international itineraries when not flying in a premium cabin – SkyTeam Elite Plus members from other airlines will still keep their access on Main Cabin international itineraries, but Delta’s own elites will be SOL beginning in February 2. Beginning in January the airline will sell club memberships only to elite members of the Medallion program, meaning general members won’t have the right to pay the newly inflated price — $695 for individual membership and $1495 (a whopping 71% increase) for executive memberships.

Also, effective February 2, those elite members who still chose to pony up for a club membership will not be granted access when flying on a Basic Economy ticket. Instead, they’ll be asked to wait for their flight in a janitorial closet located in a Wi-Fi dead-zone.

Delta is also adding a real-time occupancy tracker to its app, showing live capacity of each lounge in both Atlanta and Detroit giving customers an idea of what they’re facing to get into the club. The tracker will display four occupancy levels ranging from “hurry and you might get in, but won’t find anywhere to sit” to “no freaking chance, dude, are you serious?” The tracker will be live in mid-December with expansion to include all SkyClubs in the system in the first half of 2023.

New Entrant Emerges in ITA SweepstakesThe show that never ends – the Italian government’s attempt to pawn off ITA Airways to an unsuspecting corporate conglomerate – has a new contender as the Italian-state owned rail company Ferrovie Dello Stato (FS) apparently has money to burn – perhaps quite literally.

The Italian government seems to be doing everything in its power not to sell to Delta and Air France-KLM but instead to Lufthansa and whatever group it can get to team up on a bid. Lufthansa previously entered the bidding with shipping giant MSC, but MSC finally walked away several weeks ago after being frustrated by the purchase process. The current plan is to sell 51% of the airline to Lufthansa for €250 million, and 29% to the railway with the Italian government retaining 20%.

FS took a shot in purchasing ITA’s predecessor – Alitalia – along with Delta in 2019, with the idea of creating air and rail synergies for travel beyond the airport. Now it’s back – proving that companies throwing good money after bad is a concept that’s still alive and well.

Air India and Vistara to MergeIndia’s two leading airlines – Air India and Vistara – will be merging to create a mega Indian carrier, with the goal of completing the transaction by March 2024. Prior to the announcement, Tata Group was the majority shareholder in two Indian carriers outside Air India, owning 51% of Vistara and 84% of ULCC AirAsia India.

Singapore Airlines, which had the other 49% ownership stake in Vistara will remain in the mix on the combined airline, investing an additional $250 million in exchange for 25.1% of the new carrier plus a free set of hand towels. Air India is expected to be the brand that survives since it is such a premium, beloved bra…. sorry, we almost finished that sentence without laughing too hard, but we failed.

The new airline will boast a fleet of 218 aircraft, and a total of 90 destinations served – 52 domestic destinations in India and 38 international. The combined carrier will still face significant competition in the country on the LCC front – but the only real threat from a full-service carrier would be Jet Airways which can’t seem to get out of its own way in its attempt to resume operations. For more on this, please visit yesterday’s story on CrankyFlier.com.

Saudi Arabia Plans New AirportThe Saudi government released plans on Monday for what will one day be King Salman International Airport in Riyadh, featuring six parallel runways and 22 square miles of land.

The government says the new mega-airport would be able to accommodate 120 million travelers by 2023 and as many as 185 million by 2050. For comparison, the busiest airport in the world in 2019 was Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, and it handled just over 110 million passengers, with Beijing Capital being the only other airport in the world to eclipse 100 million passengers in 2019. New York/LGA also gets to 100 million if you’re willing to count the rats living beneath the terminal as passengers but not all jurisdictions do so.

The new airport comes as Saudi Arabia also looks to launch a new airline – RIA – which would serve as Saudi Arabia’s own version of Emirates, connecting the world from east to west via its Saudi hub. RIA is expected to set the world standard…on how to lose money as fast as possible.

EU Bringing 5G to the Sky

The European Union is going to require airlines to install a “pico-cell” on aircraft which would provide traditional 5G connectivity on airplanes while in-flight, lessening the need for Wi-Fi, but also bringing the annoying guarantee of nonstop phone calls from your seatmate during flight.

EU Commissioner Thierry Breton said “the sky is no longer a limit when it comes to possibilities offered by super-fast, high-capacity connectivity”. If this comes to fruition, putting cell phones in airplane mode could become a thing of the past, a relic pointing back to a time when phones and other electronics had to be turned off during takeoff and landing.

The FCC put a stop on allowing in-flight voice and data in the United States in 2020 after receiving strong opposition from pilots, flight attendants, and every U.S. traveler who’s sat next to a medical sales rep on a cross-country flight. In theory, voice calls via WhatsApp, Skype, Teams, and similar platforms are blocked on Wi-Fi connections in the United States, but the bigger deterrent is the shame that would result from fellow passengers if someone were to hop on a video or voice chat at 30,000 feet.

• Air France took delivery of its 20th A350-900. One more and it gets a free soft drink or side item with its next widebody purchase.
• Air Serbia is going to have to stop drinking from the fire hydrant of federal funding, with the Serbian government announcing it’s going to cut off the airline like a parent with a college graduate living at home.
• American moved its quirky British friend British Airways into its home at New York/JFK’s Terminal 8 earlier this week. The Terminal features three lounges, cleverly named Greenwich, Soho, and Chelsea, and the two airlines have a complicated flow chart at all entrances to help passengers determine which lounge they are permitted to access. Oneworld buddy Iberia also began operating from the new terminal this week with JAL expected to join in May.
• Boutique Air pilots are reportedly considering a forming a small, sophisticated, or fashionable union.
• British Airways will double its presence at London/Gatwick after discovering dozens of aircraft that landed across town at Heathrow that have never been heard from since getting lost in the maze of duty free shops at the airport.
• China Southern might join oneworld. It also might not.
• Delta will be hiring between 4,000 and 6,000 new flight attendants next year. Applicants must be able to distribute patience and understanding when dealing with lunatics from the public, be willing to distribute Biscoff cookies for a living, and get real comfortable changing planes in Atlanta.
• Eastern Airlines (not the old one, and not the British one, but the other new one) wants to fly to China.
• Etihad might return its A380s into service. But as always, they also might not.
• easyJet made the easy decision to grow its base in Belfast with the addition of an 8th aircraft to the base.
• Flyr named Brede Huser its new CEO. In the role, Huser plans to change his name to Brd Hsr.
• GhanaAirlines hopestodebutin2023.
• Hawaiian is finally stepping into the kitchen, adding service to the Cook Islands. Once-weekly flights between Honolulu and Rarotonga (RAR) will begin May 20.
• KLM has the Dutch government knocking on its door asking for repayment of several hundred EUR the carrier owes the government.
• LATAM Brasil exceeded its pre-pandemic capacity levels.
• MYAirlines, YOUR newest carrier based in Malaysia, began passenger ops on Thursday.
• Norse Atlantic will become the 3,485th airline to think beginning service between New York/JFK and Paris is a good idea. Flights begins on March 26. The daily service was announced by one its Bjorns.
• Ryanair passengers discovered the best way to get through a Ryanair flight was to host a rave.
• SAS posted a $161 million loss during its Q4 but is hoping to distract you from that by also announcing 15 new routes including a return to Miami to thaw out from the Scandinavian winter.
• Southwest also plans to hire 8,000 more staff next year, but it’s expecting to be a different group of 8,000 than who Delta is hiring,
• SWISS will debut a new first and business class in 2025. The product is expected to launch right on time.
• Thai promoted CFO Chai “Latte” Eamsiri to the role of CEO, effective February 1.
• United is opening pilot bases in Orlando and Las Vegas next summer of part of its “anywhere but Newark” strategy of placing crew bases across the country.
• Volaris is finally filling the traditionally underserved East Bay to El Salvador market, announcing new 4x weekly service between Oakland and San Salvador next March.

I finally quit my job at the chemical factory. I got tired of being in a toxic workplace every day.

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What had been speculated for some time is now official. Air India and Vistara will merge, creating a new powerhouse in India, in theory. There is a lot that can go wrong here, which is why it’s surprising to see Singapore Airlines willing to make a very expensive bet that this works out well.

The merger itself is no surprise. After all, Tata Sons owns 51 percent of Vistara — a full service airline in India — while Singapore Airlines owns the other 49 percent. When Tata Sons took over Air India in the government’s long-planned privatization effort, the expectation was that the two like-minded carriers would come together. Apparently all it took for that to happen was for Singapore to offer a billion or so dollars.

To make this come together, Singapore is investing about $250 million up front. That will convert its stake in Vistara into a 25.1 percent stake in the larger Air India. Then it has committed to putting in an additional $615 million after the merger is done in order to “fund the growth and operations of the enlarged Air India.”

This is a big bet. Sure, India is an enormous market, about to become the most populous country in the world. But Air India has been a long-bloated and failed state carrier along the lines of Alitalia and Aerolineas Argentinas. It remains an international flag carrier for the country, but it has shrunk to near irrelevance domestically. Just take a look at some Cirium data.

Scheduled Indian Domestic Seats by Airline by MonthData via Cirium

In bright red you see Air India. Air India has looked remarkably consistent in total capacity over time, but that is a huge decline considering how much the total market is growing. Just look at this from a market share perspective.

Scheduled Indian Domestic Seat Share by Airline by MonthData via Cirium

When this chart started, Jet/JetLite and Kingfisher made up nearly 45 percent of the market. Those airliens are now gone. But Air India at that time had almost 20 percent of the market, and it was never able to take advantage. IndiGo and Go First (formerly GoAir) grew like mad to fill the void while Air India didn’t do anything. Even its “low” cost operator Air India Express has barely made a dent.

Vistara came in with a full service model while AirAsia India had a low fare model. Both have grown. Somehow SpiceJet has survived this long, but it has struggled. More recently, Akasa entered the market, which you see in purple at the top right.

With Tata Sons now in charge of Air India/Air India Express/AirAsia India/Vistara, it has climbed back to an almost 20 percent share, but that’s despite Air India existing, not because of it.

With this merger, Tata faces the big challenge of not allowing the poisoned Air India culture of inefficiency infect Vistara. If somehow Vistara can drive this bus, maybe there’s something good to come out of this. But just take a look at the networks to see how that will be a struggle.

Indian Domestic Networks – January 2023Data via Cirium

Domestically is where Vistara has the best chance of influencing the combined airline. Both have large operations in Delhi and Mumbai. Air India has more in the east with a larger operation in Kolkata and Chennai, but these networks don’t look too far off from each other.

Indian International Network < 2,500 miles – January 2023Data via Cirium

When we start to look at the international network, we see Air India having a much greater presence. Yes, both of these airlines take advantage of the huge labor market going back and forth to the gulf states but Air India goes much deeper than Vistara. Same goes toward the east where Air India has more connectivity to nearby Asian countries from more cities. Vistara still has a meaningful presence.

Indian International Network > 2,500 miles – January 2023Data via Cirium

It’s the long-haul network where Vistara barely registers. Yes, it has recently acquired 787s to fly to Europe and is growing, but Air India is the one that carries the flag on long-haul.

There is much to be rationalized in a combined network, you would think, but that doesn’t mean this will be an easy — or even feasible — road. Air India may dominate long-haul from an Indian carrier perspective, but that only counts if you don’t consider Emirates to be the real national airline of India. Let’s not forget all the European carriers and a growing number of American operators which fly to the country as well.

With Singapore putting a billion dollars in, that will give the airline some runway. It will also certainly solidify the airline’s position in Star Alliance, though Singapore has long been a lukewarm member. It is going to need as much help as it can get to make this Indian operation work.

There should be a need for a functioning full service airline in a country the size of India. The key word there, however, is “functioning.” Air India has never filled that role. Maybe now it can and then Tata can go and figure out what to do at the lower end of the spectrum.

You’d also think Air India Express would merge with AirAsia India on that side of the equation, but on the other hand, AirAsia probably isn’t willing to dump a ton of money into the new airline just to stake its claim the way Singapore is doing. One step at a time, I suppose.

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Avianca has been busy remaking itself over the last few years. That has meant pivoting toward an ultra low cost (ULCC) model while also trying to grow through acquisition. The biggest piece of that plan involved taking over local low-cost operator Viva, but the government is not happy about that. Despite the opposition, Avianca is not giving up.

The deal for Avianca to take over Viva came to light last April when a single ownership was planned to sit over both airlines. Viva is a Colombian-based ULCC that had grand growth plans, but it has had financial issues. Avianca, fresh out of its own trip to the bankruptcy spa, stepped in with its plan.

By August, Avianca said the situation had become dire, and it wanted to move ahead with a full integration, not just a financial umbrella over both airlines. It described Viva’s financial situation as being both “complex” and “delicate.” That’s just a fancy way of saying that Viva was on the brink of doom, so it asked the government to approve an integration quickly under rules regarding an “empresa en crisis,” or for the Spanish-impaired, company in crisis. The government was not onboard.

Earlier this month, the Colombian regulator shot it down. It first said that the “company in crisis” situation did not apply, because Avianca did not prove that Viva’s death was imminent. It agreed that Viva was in real trouble, but not enough trouble. It also said Viva didn’t adequately explore alternatives that wouldn’t hurt the competitive situation, either through a different acquirer or bank loans.

With the Colombians unwilling to consider this a crisis, they fell back on evaluating this on its competitive merits. And they did not like what they saw.

• The two airlines compete today on 59 domestic routes which make up 93.7% of the country’s domestic traffic
• The airlines would have a monopoly on 16 routes (though Avianca doesn’t agree with that methodology)
• Competitive levels would fall back to where they were more than 7 years ago
• This would increase barriers to entry for new competitors

It appears to be largely a domestic issue for Colombia’s Aerocivil, but let’s start with total seat capacity for all markets, because, well, because we can.

Seats Departing Colombia by Airline Group by MonthData via CiriumDo you see Avianca? Of course you do. It’s the big red anchor that is the biggest in the market. But do you see Viva? Yep, that’s the one that’s third in total seats, just above the deep blue of LATAM. Combining Viva and Avianca does indeed create significant consolidation of market share. (On a separate note, holy cow that’s huge growth in total seats over time.)

But let’s get back to the domestic market and look at market share since that seems to be the biggest issue.

Total Seat Share By Airline By Month, Domestic Colombia Data via CiriumThis is a more interesting chart. You do see Avianca continuing to be the leader, but look how its share has been eroded. Viva has grown, LATAM has grown, and you see the introduction of other low cost operators Easyfly and Ultra Air. Meanwhile, Copa and its subsidiaries along with SATENA have lost share.

I put Viva in that striped blue/reddish color to make it easy to see how the two airlines would look combined. And sure enough, you can see how this would give Avianca share around what it had 7 years ago. But Avianca isn’t giving up. It apparently has a five-point plan.

• Divest slots (reportedly 40-60 percent of what Viva holds) at congested Bogotá airport
• Maintain the Viva brand and model
• Limit fares on the three routes it says there will be a monopoly (remember, the government says there are 16 routes but apparently Avianca disagrees)
• Codeshare with SATENA on routes where SATENA is the monopoly operator, giving connectivity to people in those towns
• Retain Viva’s interline agreements that exist today

This is not a small concession. Bogotá slots are hotly-contested, and looking at full year 2022, Avianca had just over half the flights departing the airport. LATAM is next at nearly 19 percent and then there’s Viva at nearly 10 percent. This move would still allow Avianca to grow in Bogotá, but it also opens a not-insignificant number of slots for others.

Maintaining the Viva brand and model seems fairly silly. I guess it’s a jobs program, or at least that’s how it’s worded. But Avianca has moved swiftly toward the Viva-style model, so I don’t really know what value keeping the brand has.

Regarding fare caps, I think what Avianca is doing here is looking at routes that are currently served only by both Avianca and Viva and no other airline. That means fare caps would come to Medellín and Cali to Riohacha along with Cali to Cúcuta. That seems like a pretty minor give. I’m guessing the government is looking at routes that are served either by one or the other today, something that wouldn’t change during a merger but could be an opportunity to extract a pound of flesh.

The SATENA codeshare has a broader impact, though these are all pretty small places. Here’s what I pulled from Cirium as having a SATENA monopoly:

• Bogotá – Aguachica, Inírida, Ipiales, Mitú, Pitalito, Puerto Carreño, San Vicente del Caguán, Saravena, Tame, Tumaco, Villa Garzón
• Cali – Ipiales
• Nuquí – Medellín/Herrera, Quibdó
• Puerto Asís – Florencia, Ipiales, Puerto Leguízamo
• San Andrés – Providencia Island
• Villavicencio – Inírida, Mitú, Puerto Carreño

Presumably the codeshare will only really do anything for flights from Bogotá and Cali. Of course, this would be a huge news for people who live in those towns, though only 3 have more than 100,000 people and just one, Tumaco, tops 200,000. These aren’t big places — which would explain why nobody else flies to them — but maybe the undying love and devotion from people in these towns make this something that would help change Colombia’s mind.

I have no real idea how Colombia’s competitive review process proceeds, so I can’t comment on whether these concessions might do the trick. They do seem meaningful, but we’ll just have to wait and see if it’s enough to sway Aerocivil.

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It has been over a year since I last handed out a Cranky Jackass Award, and that’s by design. My standards have really ratcheted up since the early days when I would pass them out for lesser transgressions. But last week, I discovered a change worthy of the award. Frontier has eliminated all phone support, and for that, it deserves a Cranky Jackass Award, without question.

Up until a little over a week ago, Frontier had an outsourced call center that could be reached by calling a local number, so Frontier could avoid those toll-free charges. This isn’t really an issue since nobody should be paying for long distance these days, but naturally Frontier did do it in a shady way, using (801) 401-9001. That area code is actually in Utah, but it’s close enough in digits to 800 make it look possibly toll-free. I’m surprised the airline didn’t go with a 900 or 976 number and make travelers pay to call. (Do those still exist?)

Now, if you call any number related to Frontier, you’ll get a recording saying that phone support is gone and you should use other channels. Here’s what a Frontier spokesperson told me:

Our Customer Care function recently transitioned to fully digital communications, which enables us to ensure our customers get the information they need as expeditiously and efficiently as possible. We have found that most customers prefer communicating via digital channels. Customers can visit our website and interact initially with a chatbot which provides answers to common questions. If live agent support is needed, we have live chat available 24 hours a day / 7 days a week. Customers may also chat with us via common social media channels and Whatsapp.

Chat and email are listed on the support page, but I don’t even see the other methods mentioned as options, so I suppose you just have to guess and hope.

I was curious to see just how good this chat option would be, so I made up a question, asking if the Works could be added after ticket purchase. (I knew the answer, it can’t, but that wasn’t the point.) After opening the chat window, I was faced with getting beyond the useless chatbot. My first half-hearted attempt failed.

So I asked my question, and this time it actually tried to help… but it failed miserably.

So, I said it wasn’t helpful and that’s when the actual human got unlocked. I gave a fake name and didn’t provide a confirmation number… and I waited for a response.

And then, it gave me the bad news.

My message is next in line but there are long waits? That does not compute. And there’s no way it was true. Still, it took me right around 10 minutes before Jemima joined the chat.

It was not a quick moment at all. Instead, it took about another 10 minutes while I assume Jemima was helping 100 other chats. She finally got back to me with the right info.

Obviously this was not worth chatting to get the answer since this was just a throwaway question, but how long would it take if I had a problem with a reservation? And it sounds like I got off lucky. The person at Cranky Concierge who discovered the death of the phone number couldn’t get anyone on the other end of chat. He left his computer on for several hours before giving up.

It’s efficient for Frontier… and I’m sure it’s cheaper… but it’s not good for customers who need quicker responses. And sometimes, phone support is the best way to go. Things can get lost in text-based conversations, especially when they are complex issues.

I know what you’re saying… “but, but Breeze doesn’t have a phone number, so why is this different?” First off, I don’t like that Breeze has no phone number either, but at least Breeze was designed to have no phone number. If you book Breeze, you are booking direct. The airline has chat and contact information along the path as needed. It’s not ideal, but it’s not Cranky Jackass-worthy. I’ll just wave my finger angrily.

Frontier is an ahem more complicated animal. It sells connections unlike Breeze, so missed connections, lost bags, etc are much more of a reality. It also sells its tickets through multiple channels, so it’s not just consumer support but also travel partner support that could benefit from phone support. And what does Frontier say about that?

This is absolutely wrong to call that phone number toll free, but it also doesn’t work anymore. And that fax number… I’ll assume it doesn’t work either, but also, pretty funny they say not to give it to customers even though it’s just on a public webpage that came up in my Google search. Anyway, it makes me want to do this…

Photo via ChtiTux/CC SA-3.0

I can absolutely understand wanting to push more people to digital channels. It is more efficient to have one person handling multiple different clients at the same time. But ultimately there are people who strongly prefer the phone, and there are some issues that are complex enough that a chat just won’t work as well, especially if there are long delays between responses. There are ways to push people toward using digital channels while still keeping the phone number alive for those who need it. Frontier decided to go with the stick instead of the carrot, however.

Enjoy that Cranky Jackass Award, Frontier. And maybe reconsider your decision.

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It’s here! It’s here! Cranky Dorkfest is one day away. Hopefully many of you are […]

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Southwest kicked off the post-summer travel season with a blast, offering its famed companion pass […]

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After our brief stop in Quebec City, it was time to move on to Montreal […]

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Starting on October 3, Newark will no longer be considered a New York City airport… […]

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. I asked you right here […]

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Does it mean we’re getting old when 9/11 is now old enough to drink? I […]

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Your conspiracy theories about Southwest’s boarding policy are wrong – Washington PostWaPo tries to decrypt […]

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Not long ago, United was busy arguing that there were too many flights scheduled at […]

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Avelo continues its torrid pace of growth as of late with its newest city… Binghamton? […]

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It’s a holiday, so I figured it would be better to put this post live […]

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The operation plays a critical role in the schedule that we fly – American Airlines […]

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What was supposed to be a week-long family trip to Canada turned into an epic […]

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We are doing a mailbag episode of the Cranky Talk podcast, and as regular listeners […]

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I’ve been watching Frontier’s route changes very closely as of late. My assumption is that […]

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. In part 3 of our […]

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Fall flight cuts reflect new normal for passengers – ABC NewsI spent a fair bit […]

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If ever an airline had nine lives, it’s Air Wisconsin. Somehow, this airline finds itself […]

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Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has been talking tough over the last few months, telling airlines […]

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Last week American announced it had placed an order for 20 of the Boom Overture […]

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More than 2 years into pandemic, drastic airline schedule changes are still the norm – […]

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It’s been a good run, but as of today, I’m officially killing my Friday “3 […]

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When data gets into the hands of people who don’t understand it, completely false stories […]

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Delta received quite a gift from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) late last week when […]

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Fume events are sticky business, […]

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It’s hard to believe, but we are just over a month away from Cranky Dorkfest. […]

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I took the kids out to Phoenix for a week at “Camp Pop and Grandma” […]

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Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends. It’s time to take yet […]

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I recently wrote about potential overlap between the new JetBlue/Spirit combo and the Big Four […]

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AP is here to help you navigate the summer’s travel chaos – TwitterI did my […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Hawaiian Airlines to Mahalo Members with Double Hawaiian Miles on Every […]

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I had to go up to Oakland for a quick overnight business trip, so the […]

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JetBlue has twisted itself in knots over the last couple months explaining why the Spirit […]

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. We didn’t plan on having […]

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This was a local news kind of week, and that is always fun. With Frontier […]

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This Week’s Featured Link JetBlue and Spirit to Create a National Low-Fare Challenger to the […]

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Everyone has been waiting for the results of the Spirit vote on the Frontier merger […]

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I find incident/accident investigations fascinating in general, but I rarely if ever cover them here. […]

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It’s always been a weird dance between Air Canada and United. For two decades,the airlines […]

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The Myth of Best Day to Buy Cheap Flights | Expert Interview with Brett Snyder […]

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Last week I looked at how US airport capacity has changed during the pandemic, and […]

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If you were hoping to go visit Canada this summer — as I am — […]

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Dave and I have spent […]

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Another vote delay leaves Spirit’s merger with Frontier in question while JetBlue circles – CNBCThis […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Emirates statement on operations at London Heathrow – Emirates NewsEmirates has […]

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There has been a lot of talk lately about how the airlines have raced to […]

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As I’m sure you all do on your Sunday nights, I was flipping through Cirium […]

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Since the day it was announced, Spirit’s board has been 100 percent behind its merger […]

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Why the skies have not always been so friendly to travelers this summer – KJZZ […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Connect Airlines Receives US Department of Transportation Interstate Scheduled Airline Certificate […]

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Spirit picked up 16 slots at Newark this week. Is that a big deal? It’s […]

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As the name suggests, Canada’s WestJet began life in the West of Canada, based in […]

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I spent a lot of time this week talking to the media, including an appearance […]

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This Week’s Featured Link American and Iberia are moving at London Heathrow — here’s what […]

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On June 14, SkyWest’s newly-formed subidiary SW Charter Holdings, Inc bought a nearly defunct operator […]

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We are just about a month into the summer, and so it’s time to do […]

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Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Alliances! I figure if I […]

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Airlines, FAA spar over flight delays as crucial Fourth of July weekend approaches – CNBCIt’s […]

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This Week’s Featured Link 78th IATA Annual General Meeting Recap – AirwaysI’ve never gone to […]

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In early May, Long Beach Airport opened a brand new ticketing lobby just to the […]

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With only 10 days to go until the now-rescheduled shareholder vote, JetBlue has effectively torpedoed […]

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Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg summoned the airlines to a meeting saying what basically every […]

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The cost of hopping on a plane to get away from it all is skyrocketing […]

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This Week’s Featured Link United Air Exits Stake in Parent of Former ExpressJet Airlines – […]

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For pilots who came up through the regional world in the 1990s and 2000s, the […]

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The US COVID testing requirement for inbound international air travelers, “Testy” for short, died on […]

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Cranky Talk – The Summer of Airline Madness And we are back after Dave’s nuptials. […]

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This Week’s Featured Link American introduces a new business-class fare that includes first-class perks – […]

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Norse Atlantic is getting ready to start service shortly from the US to Oslo, and […]

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It’s big week for those of you who care about the future of Spirit Airlines. […]

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As the great Glenn Frey once said… the heat is on. Yeah, yeah, it’s summer […]

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United Airlines takes the lead in lift to Europe – Travel WeeklyThis is the summer […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines Announce Amended Merger Agreement – Spirit […]

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Delta has done a masterful job over the years of positioning itself as a cut […]

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That business trip to Phoenix I wrote up yesterday? I couldn’t say it at the […]

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I had to do a last minute trip to Phoenix for work, so with less […]

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You may have noticed that I didn’t post yesterday. I got busy and wasn’t able […]

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You may have seen one of the three press releases issued last week by Surf […]

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Ever since the death of Skeds of air Lines, I’ve had people ask if I […]

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You probably saw all the press touting Southwest’s new fare category, Wanna Get Away Plus, […]

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Cranky Talk – JetBlue Gets Hostile With Spirit First Spirit agreed to merge with Frontier, […]

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This Week’s Featured Link American adds a 3rd route from Philly operated by a bus […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Maury Gallagher’s Letter to Shareholders – AllegiantI always look forward to […]

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Southwest has finally decided it’s time to invest in its onboard product again. Yesterday, the […]

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Last week, I expressed my confusion at Spirit rejecting JetBlue’s offer, which seemed to be […]

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Cranky Talk – What is the Point of a Travel Agent? We told you we […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Travel chaos returns as Alaska Airlines blames … the calendar? – […]

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And now, it’s time for the final installment of the Oakland California Corridor Challenge. By […]

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I’ve said it here before; I do not get this JetBlue/Spirit merger plan. That, however, […]

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If I don’t post on the scheduled Monday/Tuesday/Thursday days as normal, I’ll definitely hear about […]

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This Week’s Featured Link Delta, facing a union drive, says it will start paying flight […]

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Are you tired yet? Because I’m tired, and I had only done 4 flights on […]

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Much has changed since the dawn of the pandemic, and many of those changes have started to revert back to normal as we’ve begun to learn how to live with COVID-19. One change that I don’t think will go back, however, is how people think about travel insurance. There’s a heightened concern about what happens if you get sick or stuck far from home, and we’ve seen it very clearly in our Cranky Concierge travel assistance business. One thing I’ve noticed is there’s a lot of confusion about what kind of insurance is useful. Let’s try and clear that up.

[Disclosure: This post is part of a long term sponsorship of Cranky Flier by Medjet.]

Where people tend to turn first is to travel insurance, and they aren’t wrong to do that. Travel insurance generally serves two main purposes. First, it will help people get their money back if they have to cancel a trip or if the trip is interrupted… as long as the reason is covered. Second, it will provide medical and evacuation insurance for travelers if they get sick.

On the surface, that sounds great. I mean, it sounds terrible to get sick on the road, but, to be clear, it’s the coverage that sounds great. But it’s also not quite what it’s cracked up to be when it comes to medical evacuation.

Most travel insurance will get you to a suitable hospital, but you don’t get to choose what hospital that is. The insurance companies usually just have a list and you go to the closest one in the country you’re in. Even hospital-of-choice policies typically mean a hospital in the city you’re in, not one at home. Evacuation is possible back to your home, but only if everyone involved deems it medically necessary. I wouldn’t count on that.

This is where medical transport membership programs like Medjet come into play. Medjet provides and pays for all ground and air medical transport to get you moved to your hospital at home, or to a specialty hospital in your own country, just because you’d prefer to be there. There are no medical necessity requirements. In other words, having both types of coverage can be really helpful: travel insurance for getting you to the nearest ER and Medjet for getting you moved home. Medjet can give that peace of mind during a time where everybody is anxious, with one of the concerns being sick in a far away land without the ability to get home. They can even get members hospitalized for COVID-19 moved to their hospital at home.

Medjet’s basic MedjetAssist membership can be bought either for a short term or on an annual basis. Evacuation can be ridiculously costly, so I must admit I was a little surprised when I saw that MedjetAssist is actually not very expensive. If you’re under age 75, an annual MedjetAssist membership with global benefits is $295 for the year. For a family it’s $399, and that’s for 2 adults and up to 5 dependent children.

But wait, there’s more. They’ll throw in a SECOND pillow for freeeeeeee! Sorry, I lost my mind there for a minute. But there is more. There’s another level of membership called MedjetHorizon which is an additional $149 for an individual or $179 more for a family. This helps calm another fear that has plagued travelers lately.

MedjetHorizon includes all the same medical transport benefits, but it also includes security and crisis response. Let’s just say you were traveling abroad in, oh, say, March 2020 and… then the world shut down. MedjetHorizon could help get you out. Not only that, but they can help with legal issues and give access to translators, communicate with people at home, and more.

Not realistic enough? Ok, let’s say your dad is Liam Neeson and you are going to Europe with friends. When you inevitably get kidnapped, Medjet can help the first time, the second time, or the third time. At least, I think it can help the third time. You’ve gotta be pretty dumb to keep getting abducted.

If you’re planning on taking a trip and large amounts of money you’ve paid can’t be refunded if things go wrong, travel insurance is a great idea. But when it comes to medical and security peace of mind, Medjet is the one that can be most helpful.

Learn more, see pricing, and sign up at medjet.com/crankyflier.

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Subscribers of Cranky Daily know that we like to poke fun at Newark for being, well, Newark… but today this is a more substantive issue. I’m specifically trying to understand just how bad the operation is in Newark these days. If you ask United, it is very bad. And despite being the largest operator at the airport by far, the airline is more than happy to point fingers at others for causing the problem.

Jon Roitman, United’s Chief Operating Officer, sent a memo out to employees last week, and that memo was also forwarded on the media, clearly hoping that this issue of Newark gridlock would get more coverage. First, Jon starts pointing fingers at airlines that are running poor operations these days, and the list is not short.

As you may have read in stories like this one over the weekend, some of our competitors continue to
have a really tough time running their operation – including JetBlue, Spirit, Allegiant and Southwest –
and that is also having a ripple-effect on our Newark team.

It’s funny to think that Southwest could be having a ripple-effect on United’s Newark team since Southwest hasn’t flown there since 2019. I’ll assume that was just an attempt at throwing shade. I also find it specious to suggest Allegiant could be causing trouble since it has been averaging just under 2 flights per day out of Newark as of late. But Spirit and JetBlue? Well, yes, tell me more…

JetBlue and Spirit have had an especially challenging time – combined those carriers canceled 600+
flights on Saturday and Sunday alone. For Spirit, that’s about 17% of its Saturday flights and 20% of its
Sunday flights. And as bad as that was, JetBlue had 45% of all weekend departures either being
cancelled or delayed more than an hour.

It’s JetBlue and Spirit’s flying at Newark though – where they cancelled a combined 16% of their Newark
flights over the weekend (and 20% MTD) – and the continued unpredictability of their schedule that has
exacerbated an already difficult situation and looms large as our teams prepare for the busy summer
travel season ahead.

Ok good, no more talk about Southwest and Allegiant. This is a Spirit and JetBlue issue. Looking at Cirium data, JetBlue had about 45 daily flights scheduled from Newark and Spirit just under 19 in April. This sounds completely absurd considering that United and United Express had nearly 380 daily flights scheduled, but there is some sound rationale here.

As the memo goes on to say, the FAA has Newark capable of handling 79 operations per hour in total, but hard slot restrictions went away about 5 or 6 years ago when the airport was moved down from Level 3 to Level 2. Naturally, JetBlue, Spirit, and others jumped into the fray to try to build it up while the getting was good. During the pandemic, this wasn’t an issue, but now, well, yeah. Here’s what today looks like.

Newark Scheduled Operations By Hour – April 25, 2022

Schedule data via Cirium The gray area is what the airport can handle, up to 79 operations per hour. Those peak afternoon flight times when Europe is ready to fly? Those are overscheduled. And there’s not much room to recover if something goes go wrong so it turns into a cascade of suck.

What’s interesting about this is that it’s still not back at 2019 levels, looking at a bird’s eye view by month.

Newark Scheduled Operations By Month

Schedule data via Cirium And guess what? It was still overscheduled back in 2019. There were just fewer flights during off-peak times.

Newark Scheduled Operations By Hour – April 22, 2019

Schedule data via Cirium That means, when we look at masFlight data showing actual operational performance, these numbers look pretty well-correlated.

Operational Performance of Newark Departures by Month

Ops data via Anuvu, Schedule Data via Cirium Operations come back up, operational reliability goes back down. It’s the Newark circle of life. But United is really just mad because these other airlines are running such terrible operations that it hurts its own efforts. Looking at the first three weeks of April, for example, United completed 96.55 percent of flights with arrivals within 14 minutes (A14) sitting at 65.62 percent. That is not good, but compare it to JetBlue and Spirit and you may change your tune.

JetBlue completed 90.52 percent of flights with an embarrasing 42.75 percent A14 rate. Spirit was at an atrocious 85.93 percent completion factor and 53.22 percent A14. (I should note that while smaller, Alaska hasn’t been much better than these guys, so they deserve some fire as well.) See, United is looking pretty good. But United’s point here is that its operation is only as bad as it is because JetBlue and Spirit can’t run on time and that snarls everything.

What does United want to do about it? I’m glad you asked. As the memo continues, the airline really begins laying into the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

For our part, we follow the FAA’s rules and plan our Newark schedules accordingly. But our planning
depends on other carriers – so it’s time for them to follow the rules, too. The whiplash caused by JetBlue
and Spirit’s operation has resulted in a volatile and unpredictable environment for everyone, ultimately
impacting all customers.

The bottom line is this: it’s well past time for the FAA to step in, enforce their own rules in Newark, bring
some order to the operating environment there, and let carriers properly plan their summer schedules
and deliver a great experience for customers.

United remains in regular touch with the FAA to express our continued concern that the recovery of air
travel demand will worsen the gridlock at Newark if they don’t proactively manage congestion there.
We’ve recently asked specifically for transparency on approved schedules out of Newark and for the
FAA’s procedures to be applied fairly and consistently across all carriers.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that not only does United want the FAA to step in, but it wants the FAA to ensure that it has the ability to continue all its operations while all those young whippersnappers who have stepped in when the slots opened should have to pull back. That, however, is not a headline that the FAA likely wants written.

It seems entirely reasonable to request that the FAA step in and deal with this airport. I found it surprising that they would change the airport to a lower level of coordination when they did. But if the FAA steps in, it remains unclear if United would actually like the end result if it has to give up anything. But maybe for United, operational integrity is worth the cost at this point since Spirit and especially JetBlue seem to be struggling mightily and foiling everyone’s plans.

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Cranky Talk – The Oakland California Corridor Challenge

I know I owe you a couple more days’ worth of trip reports, and those will be coming. But Dave really wanted to talk about my adventure flying up and down the coast.

Disclosure: Oakland International Airport paid for flights, hotel, and expenses. The airlines involved were also told in advance that we were flying, so it was definitely not your normal experience on the ground, especially with Southwest.

Why did Dave care so much? He’s just so confused why anyone would ever do this. Enjoy his complete lack of understanding this week when you listen in.

Email Dave here and ask him what it would take to get him to do this.

Download Cranky Talk here or listen below.

Thank you to our newest sponsor, IDEMIA. You may not know IDEMIA, but you know what they do.

IDEMIA is the authorized provider of TSA PreCheck enrollment. Passengers can apply for TSA PreCheck to determine if they are low-risk and eligible to receive expedited screening. Get started here.

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The Cranky Flier: Ditching mask mandates won’t affect air travel’s COVID recovery – KJZZ The Show
I really don’t think the end of the mask mandate will make a bit of difference on travel demand. I sat down for a few minutes with the Phoenix area NPR station’s morning show to discuss.

TSA won’t enforce mask mandate after judge rules against CDC – Biz Journals
Same thing here!

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This Week’s Featured Link The DOJ will appeal the recent mask ruling by a federal judge – NPR
Words fail me on this one. Sure, there are plenty of arguments out there about the judge that struck down the mask mandate being unqualified and all that, but this seemed like a blessing in disguise for the Biden Administration. Now, it’s going to try to challenge the repeal even though it was expected to go away in a couple weeks? I understand that this is following CDC guidelines, but with nobody being required to wear masks on the ground any longer, why try to force the issue in one of the safer places around (on an airplane)? Can you imagine how miserable it’ll be to deal with anti-maskers on airplanes if this gets reinstated?

Image of the Week

Photo via Allegiant I get it, a new kid movie comes out and Allegiant paints a plane with the stars stealing the airline’s sun logo. Cute… but having “The Bad Guys” painted on your airplane doesn’t really seem like a great plan. After all, if you ask every late night comedian, that moniker belongs to Spirit.

Two for the Road Mitsubishi SpaceJet has first of its prototypes dismantled – Air Data News
In case you thought the SpaceJet might get made someday… it’s not looking great.

Marana-Bound: Barely-Used Private Boeing 747-8 Heads To The Desert – Simple Flying
Well this is a sad turn of events.

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I know I said I was on vacation this week, but it turns out I hadn’t finished writing up the next part of my California Corridor Challenge trip report anyway. I went to put that together, but then I saw the news from Breeze and just had to write it up.

Breeze will launch service from Westchester County north of New York City as follows:

• Charleston, SC – 1x daily from June 28
• Norfolk – 5x weekly from June 30
• Jacksonville – 3x weekly from June 30
• Los Angeles – 1x daily from September 7
• Las Vegas – 1x daily from September 8
• Savannah – 2x weekly from September 9
• San Francisco – 1x daily from November 2

Charleston and the trio of West Coast routes will operate with the A220, which is just about the perfect airplane for the job. After all, Westchester doesn’t have a long runway at 6,549 feet, so launching a transcontinental route is no small feat. But with the A220, it can apparently work… and there’s more buffer since they’re using those very-not-dense A220s with 36 seats up front in the premium cabin.

Can the airplane really make it? I don’t see why not. After all, Orange County has a 5,700 foot runway and United can fly nonstop to Honolulu from there using a 737-700. That happens to be the exact same distance as Westchester – San Francisco.

This isn’t a perfect comparison. After all, the winter headwinds are going to be stiffer on the transcon from Westchester than they are to Hawai’i. The jetstream doesn’t wreak as much havoc on westbound flights heading that far south. But with a thousand feet more runway and a less dense A220, it seems like this should work at least most of the time.

The other — and frankly, most interesting — piece of this equation is that Westchester has slots… or something like that. Thanks to the airport’s Terminal Use Agreement, the airport can have no more than 4 flights per half hour, and there can’t be more than 240 passengers (inbound and outbound) in each half hour as well. Here’s the current split of seat share.

May 2022 Westchester (HPN) Seat Share

Data via Cirium That might explain some of the more curious flight times. For example, Westchester – Jacksonville leaves in the evening, as do many of the other East Coast flights. The Vegas flight goes in the early afternoon with a redeye return. LAX is a morning flight in both directions, but SFO is morning westbound and afternoon eastbound. Are these exactly how Breeze would have scheduled them if there were no constraints? I doubt it. But you take what you can get.

It’s hard for me not to love this plan, assuming the airline sticks to its leisure travel appeal. Yes, Westchester is where a lot of high-powered business people live, but this is a leisure schedule. Even 1x daily isn’t going to help much for a business person who needs multiple options to get home at different times. Sure, if the time is right, then a business person may take the flight, but with so much more frequency at JFK or Newark, it can never be true competition. But on the leisure side? It’s a different story.

There is so much traffic between New York and these markets in the west that it’s hard to imagine these not being successful. Having Westchester as a controlled airport makes it even better… though I should point out that both JetBlue and Delta have A220s. They could give this a shot as well if they want, and Breeze wouldn’t love that. But then again, airlines that go up against David Neeleman in transcon markets don’t tend to do so well. Just ask American how its Long Beach – JFK experiment went back in the day.

The shorter East Coast markets are also pretty interesting. There’s a whole lot of overlap with Avelo’s first round of non-Florida flying from New Haven. Both Savannah and Charleston will be on the list for both airlines, probably because they can both seem the same data. These are popular markets for those around New York, and presumably serving them from more airports will only increase demand.

On those shorter flights, the biggest risk is having the wrong flight times. Time of day matters more and more the shorter the flight, especially when there is nearby competition. The convenience of Westchester will have a strong pull for those who were otherwise going to use primary New York airports, but the pull may be less strong once you get into Connecticut if they have New Haven as an option too.

Breeze will have wifi, power, and all the stuff you need on a transcon on the A220s, so from a product perspective, I’d think these will be attractive. To me, it really comes down to whether the flight times work and if Breeze can pry people away from their primary airlines and their elite programs.

Of everything Breeze has launched so far, I like this best. Now let’s see if customers behave the way Breeze expects.

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The stage had been set and Henry and my flights were booked. Oakland had requested that we book all refundable flights, and we also were able to pay for EarlyBird so that we didn’t have to worry about checking ourselves in. The event would begin at the BART connector station at the Oakland airport around 8:15am or 8:30am and that was just late enough that I couldn’t fly up from Long Beach that morning. So, LAX would have to do.

Disclosure: Oakland International Airport paid for flights, hotel, and expenses. The airlines involved were also told in advance that we were flying, so it was definitely not your normal experience on the ground, especially with Southwest.

I had requested a Lyft to arrive at 4:50am at my house to take me up for the 6:15am departure. That did not happen. The Lyft driver seemed lost and eventually pulled up just after 5. Fortunately, there was no traffic, and I had no trouble at all getting through the empty security line.

My first inkling that Southwest would be treating things differently on this trip happened at the boarding gate. The gate agents said that this was a designated “fun flight,” a refrain I’d hear over and over again throughout the next couple days. They played games, including one that looked for the oldest coin in the boarding area.

I had no coin of course, because why the heck would I have coins? But someone had a 1966 coin and won… something. I’m not even sure what it was, maybe a gift card?

For the third time in four tries, my flight scheduled on a 737 MAX had been swapped for a 737-800. It was still dark outside when they announced boarding, but I perked up immediately when I saw dozens of Randy’s Donuts at the bottom of the jet bridge to welcome everyone on our half full flight. I grabbed a blueberry donut and walked onboard.

Southwest 1382April 12, 2022

Depart Los Angeles
➤ Scheduled: 615a, Actual: 614a
➤ From: Gate 15 on Runway 24L

Arrive Oakland
➤ Scheduled: 740a, Actual: 728a
➤ At: Gate 6 on Runway 30

Aircraft
➤ Type: Boeing 737-8H4
➤ Delivered: December 13, 2014
➤ Registered: N8655D, msn 42529
➤ Livery: Hot Dog on a Stick

Flight
➤ Cabin: Coach in Seat 4F
➤ Load: ~47% Full
➤ Flight Time: 59m

Once onboard, someone asked me to ring my call button and I was presented with a bag full of swag. Actually, it was mostly snacks to keep me going through the day which was nice. But I got a whole lot of socks and sunglasses and other trinkets all trip long. I know Southwest thought they were being nice, but it just meant I had to constantly repack, eat things, and give things away along the way in order to make it manageable. I know, I know, poor me.

The captain came on and said that it was early so there weren’t a lot of ride reports, but they were expecting it to be a very bumpy on the way up to Oakland. Oh, fun.

We pushed back a bit early and had the customary 2 second taxi out to the runway before launching into the brightening morning sky. As promised, it was a squirrelly climb out of LAX as I watched the whitecaps beneath us fade away. Once we got to altitude, it was perfectly smooth.

It was a beautiful morning in Oakland after the prior day’s rain had cleared out. We blocked in early and I went off to the BART connector to meet Henry, begin the day, and do some interviews. Did you know the BART connector is actually a cable car? I learned this fun fact when we went for a ride.

Because of the timing of the launch event, we could have tried to squeeze in some earlier flights, but we figured it was best to have some buffer just in case. So, we went up to the airport’s offices in Terminal 1, walked around, got some tea/coffee at Oaklandish, and then went over to our gate for the flight down to San Diego.

We got ready to board the fairly full flight, and after more “fun flight” action, we hopped on board, Henry taking the window and I right next to him. We decided to alternate through the day, but we wouldn’t need to do much of that.

Southwest 2697April 12, 2022

Depart Oakland
➤ Scheduled: 1115a, Actual: 1121a
➤ From: Gate 29 on Runway 30

Arrive San Diego
➤ Scheduled: 1240p, Actual: 1242p
➤ At: Gate 9 on Runway 27

Aircraft
➤ Type: Boeing 737-8H4
➤ Delivered: December 4, 2017
➤ Registered: N8553W, msn 63601
➤ Livery: Hot Dog on a Stick

Flight
➤ Cabin: Coach in Seat 7B
➤ Load: ~95% Full
➤ Flight Time: 1h 2m

This was a full flight, and with the winds howling from the northwest to the southeast, it was going to be a relatively quick one. We pushed back a few minutes late, but we made up a little time along the way.

There wasn’t much to report on this flight. I had a cuplet of water, and then I was treated to a rare view of LA at altitude. I’m not used to being at that height, so it was a nice perspective. We came down inland and bounced our way down toward Mexico before turning back around and landing.

We had to wait a couple minutes for our gate to open up, but then we slid right in.

The terminal is ancient and overcrowded. This isn’t a surprise to anyone since they are building the new Terminal 1. It’s very desperately needed. When we landed, we were greeted by a couple of people on the Southwest San Diego team. One looked very familiar, and sure enough, she was the same person who greeted me at Oakland back in 2016 when I did my 8 airports in one day adventure. She’s now down in San Diego, and it was great to see her.

There was more swag, more photos, more games, and a quick bathroom stop before boarding began on our flight back at the gate right next door.

Southwest 1489April 12, 2022

Depart San Diego
➤ Scheduled: 120p, Actual: 125p
➤ From: Gate 10 on Runway 27

Arrive Oakland
➤ Scheduled: 250p, Actual: 252p
➤ At: Gate 24 on Runway 30

Aircraft
➤ Type: Boeing 737-7H4
➤ Delivered: July 19, 2007
➤ Registered: N283WN, msn 36610
➤ Livery: Hot Dog on a Stick

Flight
➤ Cabin: Coach in Seat 14F
➤ Load: ~95% Full
➤ Flight Time: 1h14m

This flight was also full, and it was the only one that was at the full fare Anytime rate. Why was it so expensive? I’m guessing it’s because we were flying with the San Diego Loyal soccer team which took up a huge chunk of the seats onboard. This was our first 737-700 of the day, so that team really cut down on the number of seats that could be sold.

The station manager came on and announced that there were two special guests onboard. One was the San Diego Loyal and the other was… me? It was really strange when people clapped, looking around and wondering why they were clapping. It was also strange that Henry didn’t get the recognition, just me. The whole thing was uncomfortable, but soon we were buttoned up and airborne again.

It was more of a slog on this trip north thanks to the winds, and again, we had some bumps along the way, but other than one point during climb where the flight attendant told every flight attendant to get back to their seats after a few jolts, it wasn’t anything significant.

We landed back in Oakland, and I was exhausted. But, there was no time for that. We headed over to Terminal 1 for our Delta flight. There, the Delta station manager met us with a swag bag. We chatted for a few minutes about how Oakland is growing and doing well for them, and then it was time to board our full flight.

But Delta wasn’t really ready to board. They were still prepping the cabin, so the agents told us they would start boarding anyway and just have us wait at the bottom of the jet bridge. We did that for about 5 minutes before being cleared and taking our First Class seats.

Henry is a Diamond Medallion, so upgrades cleared a few days earlier for us. This would be a nice way to end the day.

Delta (SkyWest) 3769April 12, 2022

Depart Oakland
➤ Scheduled: 403p, Actual: 401p
➤ From: Gate 15 on Runway 30

Arrive Los Angeles
➤ Scheduled: 525p, Actual: 512p
➤ At: Gate 27 on Runway 24R

Aircraft
➤ Type: Embraer 175LR
➤ Delivered: August 30, 2018
➤ Registered: N279SY, msn 743
➤ Livery: Delta Red Widget

Flight
➤ Cabin: First in Seat 3A
➤ Load: ~95% Full
➤ Flight Time: 50m

We were greeted by Mary up front with Sherri working the back. Sherri handled all the announcements, and they were glorious. I’m not kidding. Sherri used to be a kindergarten teacher and spoke to us like her students. Somehow it didn’t come across in an obnoxious condescending way but rather in the perfect tone that made you want to listen and obey what she said.

I think my favorite part was at some point during the flight when Sherri came on and said, “Oops, it looks like some of your masks have slipped below your nose. Please remember to have them cover your noses and mouths.” She didn’t follow that up with “boys and girls,” but she could have. Just looking around the cabin, her announcements seemed well-received.

Once in the air, we took the usual path with a left side view of Candlestick Point followed by SFO. I got very used to this view over the next couple days.

Mary came through and since this was our last flight, it was time for a drink. They had no scotch, so Woodford it was. And then when she came through again and asked if I’d like another, it was hard to say no.

It had turned into a nice evening to fly, and it wasn’t long before we found ourselves descending into LA with remarkably clear skies thanks to those winds. This view of UCLA and the 405 freeway snaking through the Sepulveda Pass toward the San Fernando Valley was just brilliant.

That was followed up sweeping view of the LA Basin and a great look at Sofi Stadium on final approach.

We landed and were treated to an actual gate, not one of those busing gates they’ve had to use while Terminal 3 is being rebuilt.

Our flying day was over, so we were in no hurry once we got off. We chatted with Mary and Sherri on the ground for a few minutes since they had time to kill before their next flight to Phoenix. Then Henry and I walked out to check out the new T2/T1 connector.

With the building of T1.5, you can now walk from Delta’s Terminal 2 to Southwest’s Terminal 1 behind security. The views are pretty great too, and I had to do a doubletake when I saw the airplane that took us down to San Diego earlier that day sitting right in front of the window.

We walked over to T1 and then headed out, going to the LAXit lot to take an Uber over to Ontario where we’d start the next morning. Could we have just flown back up to Oakland and down to Ontario later that evening? Yes, we could have. But cooler heads prevailed and we just went by land.

Traffic was bad, so we stopped for an old-school dinner at the Dal Rae in Pico Rivera and then later headed to the Doubletree Ontario airport. Our day would begin early once again the next morning, and we both needed some sleep.

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If you’ve been following along on Twitter, you know that Henry Harteveldt and I spent last week flying up and down California as part of Oakland’s California Corridor Challenge. This week is spring break, so instead of taking a break from posting, I figured I’d start off a trip report and regale you with our tales of travel.

Disclosure: Oakland International Airport paid for flights, hotel, and expenses. The airlines involved were also told in advance that we were flying, so it was definitely not your normal experience on the ground, especially with Southwest.

Oakland put together this idea of the CCC as a way to showcase just how much frequency has returned to the Oakland – SoCal market post-pandemic. For Oakland, SoCal is hugely important, generally worth about half its total revenue. This isn’t a surprise since for short-haul travel, people care the most about using an airport that’s closer to home. Frequencies really suffered during the pandemic, and it’s only now that they’re bouncing back in full force.

The challenge took on several forms, but in the end the idea was to fly all 4 airlines in the Oakland – SoCal market and touch each of the 6 airports — Burbank, LAX, Long Beach, Ontario, Orange County, and San Diego — at least once… preferably more. (If you’re wondering, Santa Barbara and Palm Springs were originally part of the plan, but those infrequent schedules just don’t work well for something like this.)

Probably my favorite part of the whole thing was the planning effort. I immediately went to Cirium and pulled all possible flights between Oakland and Southern California into a spreadsheet. (Sometimes, it’s good to be a huge nerd.) Then, well, it went something like this.

Calculation Math GIFfrom Calculation GIFs After some back and forth, we settled on this.

Ok, ok, we actually settled on more than this. We were going to fly back up to Oakland and then take Contour’s Essential Air Service route to Crescent City for the third night before coming back home. But I just ran out of gas.

We had hit all the SoCal cities in two days, and by mid-day on the third, we had hit all four airlines involved. When we landed in Orange County, I was completely exhausted. The temptation of just hopping in a Lyft and being home in 30 minutes was too much at that point. I really thought I’d have better stamina than this, having done crazy trips like this before, but it was those single overnights with the early mornings, packing and unpacking, moving on to the next hotel… it just dragged me down. I would be a terrible pilot or flight attendant. Henry, I should note, was ready to go. He put me to shame.

In the end, I took all those flights mapped above, plus Henry had one more back north to get home. I flew 9 flights on Southwest which is no surprise considering the airline’s dominance in the market. But we also had 1 flight each on Delta, JSX, and Spirit. You may be surprised which was my favorite of those three. But you’ll just have to wait to find out.

In the end, we flew just about 4,400 miles, further than going from LA to Lima, but we never left the state. All flights were on-time except for one. (Yes, it was Spirit that took a half hour delay.)

The airlines all approached this differently. Southwest took the opportunity to make this a big party for its employees and customers alike. Each flight was announced as a dedicated “fun flight” and they had games and treats. Delta’s station manager gave us little gift bags with a hat, etc before boarding but that was it. It was much more reserved. JSX and Spirit did nothing at all. It was just like being on a normal flight with those two.

I told Henry that if any of them had just ushered us into a silent room filled with fast-charging power outlets, they would have won my undying loyalty for ever and ever. (Maybe this is a good time to remind Southwest that people desperately need power outlets. You hear me, Southwest?) But that is just a pipe dream.

Instead, we were treated to great experiences all around. That’s not to say everything was perfect, but it never is. You’ll have to wait until future posts to get into those details. I’ll plan on having one post for each day of flying, so that’s:

• Southwest LAX-OAK-SAN-OAK, Delta OAK-LAX
• Southwest ONT-OAK-BUR-OAK-LGB-OAK-SNA
• JSX SNA-OAK, Spirit OAK-SNA

Let the party begin.

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KNX In Depth: More airline delays and cancellations–Russia hopes new general can end war quickly–New rules aim to stop ghost guns–Clean your dog’s bowl and stay healthy – KNX In Depth
I chatted about the airline failures that keep happening with seemingly more regularly. What’s behind it? And why does it keep happening?

Why Are So Many Flights Getting Canceled Lately? – Conde Nast Traveler
And here’s another one on all those operational issues.

California Corridor Challenge – ABC 7 News Bay Area
As a reminder, Oakland Airport paid for our flights, hotels, and expenses. Here’s one of the media interviews we did at the beginning of the day.

Interview on @abc7newsbayarea with @crankyflier @hharteveldt regarding the #OAKCCC! pic.twitter.com/AACGquXItH

— Ross Feinstein (@RossFeinstein) April 12, 2022

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Landline — the regional airline that never leaves the ground — has one really big hurdle that it needs to overcome. It needs to convince people that it is not just another bus operator. Previous partnerships with Sun Country and United have showcased some of the opportunities it has, but now there’s a new partnership with American that shows what really differentiates this service.

Starting on June 3, Landline will operate buses for American in American’s livery — but without the ugly flag tail — connecting the Philadelphia hub with both Atlantic City and Allentown/Bethlehem. These are two different types of markets which will be a good test for the new partners.

American doesn’t fly to Atlantic City at all; that’s the sole domain of Spirit Airlines since it is a very low fare market. (JetBlue seems excited to get in there when it buys Spirit, but I don’t know why.) This is about expanding American’s presence to those in Atlantic City who might otherwise drive to another airport if Spirit can’t get them there. It also makes Atlantic City a new destination for all that inbound longer-distance traffic that… probably no longer exists. It should be about an hour on the road with no traffic.

On the other hand, American does fly to Allentown from both Charlotte (3x daily) and Chicago/O’Hare (2x daily). It used to fly 3-4x daily to Philly until the pandemic began. The last flight on that route departed May 1, 2020 and there was no plan to return with an airplane, especially once the pilot shortage hit.

American already has the ability to get people west and south via airplane, but for those who want to go around the northeast or to Europe in particular, American is not a great option unless people want to drive themselves. Now with this service, American can add more value and try to gain better loyalty in the local community.

This all sounds fine, but how many times have we seen bus service before? There are buses all over the place, and it’s not particularly appealing because of the disjointed nature of the bus ride from the airline ticket.

Landline first changed this with Sun Country when that partnership began. With a ticket sold on Sun Country, Landline would market its rides with a flight number that would be sold as part of the ticket. If you were late arriving on your bus because of an accident, it would be like arriving late on a regional jet. Sun Country would still have to get you to the destination or refund you, or whatever they require. That was a first good step forward.

With United, that arrangement was similar with “flights” on buses to both Fort Collins and Breckenridge. The flight in was great. You’d arrive on an airplane in Denver and then go to a different gate where you’d board your Landline bus. It was seamless. But the return, not so much. There was still the issue of security. That has now been solved with this American agreement.

Travelers who leave from Atlantic City or Allentown will go to the airport, check their bags, and go through security. There, they will board their bus and be taken airside in Philly where they will get off at a gate and walk right over to their connecting flight as if they’d walked off a regional jet. I don’t know how this works exactly, but it’s probably something like this.

This is a big deal, because not only does it make this just like a regional jet in all respects except that it just has a really long taxi time and never gets airborne — we hope — but it also shows TSA’s willingness to make meaningful changes to allow this kind of operation to happen from a security perspective.

This should be easy since it’s going from one airport to another and there is already a security checkpoint anyway, but Landline has much bigger plans.

Future Landline services, with regulatory approval, will connect industrial parks, corporate campuses, cruise ports, and other convenient locations.

The opportunities are endless, though it requires TSA willingness and funding. But imagine going to a conference at a big convention center and going through security and boarding a bus right there to make your connection. You could spend more time working and less time standing in line. Or a cruise? Maybe you wouldn’t always have to schedule that flight home after noon anymore. This could even help cruise lines to do a better job getting their passengers off the ship, staggering times to smooth the demand flow.

This first step is the biggest, because it establishes that functional partnership with TSA. It’s hopefully going to open up all kinds of opportunity. Now, when will we get a bus from Long Beach to LAX? If I can clear security in Long Beach, it would make for a very compelling offer.

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I’ve heard the question from friends, media, colleagues… will fares rise because of rising oil prices? The answer is… they shouldn’t in the short term. In the long run, probably, but it remains to be seen. Why isn’t it obvious? Well, this requires understanding how airline revenue management works to really get the answer. It’s time to roll up the sleeves and dig in.

The goal of airline revenue management (RM) is to maximize revenue. That’s how it goes regardless of whether oil prices are high or low. What fares are available for sale comes from a combination of sophisticated computer algorithms, human ingenuity, competitive moves, dartboards, and everything in between. But in the end, the goal is always to maximize revenue. Costs do not matter.

For this reason, any time someone asks me, “oh man the price of oil spiked today, so will prices go up?” — my answer is always no. If the RM teams are doing their jobs, they are already getting the most out of the capacity that is for sale. If they could just jack up fares to cover costs, that means they could have raised fares before and failed to do their jobs properly.

This doesn’t apply if there is some shock to demand, but that has not happened. Demand is strong, and people want to fly. So why has oil spiked, and what changed in this chart?

via Trading Economics We all know the answer to that. WAR. Oil spiked after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it has now settled back down somewhat, but it’s still high. Demand for travel to Moscow has disappeared overnight, but everywhere else there is no impact. In fact, demand seems to be at record levels. Because of that, fares aren’t going to just rise in order to cover costs.

How is it possible that costs don’t matter? Well, in RM they don’t. Costs really start to matter in the Network Planning world. They are making decisions further out about how much capacity to put in the market, and that can have an immediate impact on fares… but not for immediate travel.

I will point out it hasn’t always been this way. Airlines used to play games with fuel surcharges. They would slap on surcharges that would show up like resort fees, as a sneak attack after the fact which didn’t impact the advertised fare so it had less of an impact on consumer behavior. (They still do with award travel.) But ever since the government required that all mandatory charges get displayed in the advertised fare, they no longer had that lever. Without this mechanism, the best way to increase fares now is to restrict capacity.

It is exceedingly rare to see an airline cut back on capacity in the short term. Yes, a pandemic that stops every person from traveling is one reason to slash capacity. Airlines just basically stopped flying in March 2020, but that is a very rare event. For the most part, the fixed costs are already pretty high. Aircraft and crew schedules are set. To make changes can be a real logistical challenge. Airlines have gotten better at this during COVID, but without a major demand shock, big capacity shifts just don’t happen at the last minute.

Instead, what the Network teams are doing now is looking further out, thinking about May and into summer in particular. Those are time periods where they can make capacity decisions more easily. And why does capacity matter so much? Think back to that Econ class you were forced to take as an undergrad. Remember the part before you fell asleep where they had the two crossing lines?

Yeah, it’s that one. And I put the labels in Comic Sans to remind you that this was about as close as your Econ professor ever got to having a sense of whimsy. I know, it was bad.

But the point is that if you’re in RM, you are given the quantity and you just have to get the highest fares you can. In Network, you determine where to set the quantity. If demand increases, as it has since the depths of the pandemic, then fares go up. And if you cut capacity, fares go up since there are more people fighting for fewer seats. At the same time, if you add capacity, fares go down.

I make this all sound simple, and it’s not at all. But the basic concept is simple. That means the question is not “will fares rise?” They will rise if they can, and they’ve been doing a fair bit of that lately since demand has been so strong. The question is… what will airlines do with capacity? Capacity is the lever airlines can use to try to juice fares up if costs get too high.

The J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference was this week, and plenty of airlines talked about their plans and what they were seeing. And what they are seeing is roaring demand. The problem is that they don’t know if they can make money off that demand since oil is bouncing around like a ping pong ball. So they have to make some decisions and run with it.

Several airlines have said they’ll moderate their capacity this summer in the face of uncertain oil. Any capacity reduction will lead fares to be higher than they were at the previous level. This, of course, doesn’t mean that one flight you want will see fares change. That’s the problem with thinking about “will fares rise?” — it’s always a general trend, and when people ask if fares rise, they have specifics in mind.

So, will they rise? They sure will thanks to strong demand. But oil alone isn’t going to move the needle unless capacity drops… if it does, that means the airline wasn’t doing its job right in the first place.

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Last week, SkyWest filed with the Department of Transportation (DOT) to end service to 29 cities under the Essential Air Service program. It’s not that the subsidies weren’t working, but rather it’s because when you don’t have enough pilots, you cut the routes that matter the least. And there’s no question that these routes fall to the bottom of the list for multiple reasons. This is just another reason why the EAS program is in serious need of reform.

Here is a look at all the cities in the Continental US that are eligible for the EAS program (or at least will be if not in another program).

EAS Eligible Cities Map generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
Red are cities SkyWest is proposing to drop You can tell which Congresspeople have done their jobs best here. Some states have far more dots than they deserve. (Yes, I’m talking about you Michigan.) But each of these dots represents a lifeline to the rest of the world, or, uh, at least a lifeline to somewhere else that might have a lifeline to the rest of the world.

The EAS program was designed to keep service to cities that were expected might lose out after deregulation passed. The program does kick out cities if demand is too low, but many of these places that remain have no business getting regular air service. Kansas is my favorite to pick on. Dodge City is 40 miles from Garden City and 80 miles from Liberal, yet they all have EAS service, hurting demand.

The luckiest of the EAS cities have good connectivity into the rest of the world. SkyWest had been one of those examples since it flew these routes under the United Express brand which provided connectivity throughout that network. But now SkyWest is trying to walk away.

SkyWest’s pitch is to end service in 29 markets, all the ones in red on the map above. It had filed plans last weekend to couple those cities together to save on flying. For example, there’s a flight that now will go Chicago – Salina (KS) – Hays (KS) – Denver instead of Chicago – Salina – Chicago and Denver – Hays – Denver. But this is just a temporary plan until it is allowed to end service to all of these cities.

The rationale for doing this is pretty straightforward. SkyWest does not have enough pilots to fly its schedule. It has been pulling down flying for partners over the last few months, because it can’t staff its airplanes. And now, either things are getting worse or it is trying to reprioritize so it can offer more flying to its partners.

The EAS routes that SkyWest flies are mostly if not entirely done under a pro-rate agreement, meaning that unlike capacity purchase agreements where the mainline airline is on the hook for paying a fixed amount plus pass through costs like fuel, SkyWest takes on the risk. United doesn’t mind having these under the United Express banner, because it has no risk, and that flying can only help feed the network. But that also makes it easier for SkyWest to decide to walk away. This is the right move.

The problem here is that SkyWest can’t just end service. The DOT will now have to go through the full process of finding new bidders to take over the flying, and only then can SkyWest stop. Some of these cities will come out looking good, like Garden City, KS which already has a bid from American to step in. But for others, it will be a choice between options that won’t provide as much connectivity, which is counter to the whole point of the program.

Every airline that is hamstrung and can’t hire pilots with fewer than 1,500 hours is feeling the pain right now. That means bids like American’s in Garden City will be few and far between. Instead, what’s most likely is that bids will come in from airlines operating 9-seaters since those don’t fall under the 1,500 hour rule.

This may be a downgauge, but it won’t be the end of the world for some. Some of these airlines can provide decent connectivity, like Southern Airways Express which at least has interline agreements with Alaska, American, and United. It still won’t be the same as having a 50-seat jet marketed by United the whole way through, but it’s also not as bad as having an operator that has no relationships with big airlines.

The 9-seaters will work well… but not everywhere. Some of these cities will really feel the pain if they can’t attract a jet operator. Salina, KS, for example, is about 400 miles from the nearest true hub. It takes an awfully long time for a 9-seater to fly that distance, and you won’t want to do it.

Overall, we aren’t talking about big numbers of people impacted here. For the full year 2021 according to Cirium’s T-100 database, regional jets carried just over 375,000 passengers from all these cities combined. That’s barely more than 1,000 passengers per day, or less than 35 per airport per day. Let’s put this into perspective. Those 29 airports generated fewer passengers combined than Burlington, VT alone did.

On the other hand, we aren’t talking about a lot of people, but we are talking about a lot of pilots being required. In a world where pilots are at a premium, it’s just not feasible to fly these routes. The EAS program needs to get more creative. It should consider buses as options. It should also cut the number of cities so that it can try and strengthen the few that remain.

The reality is that outside of Alaska and probably Eastern Montana, there isn’t a huge need for these flights because there are bigger and more useful airports nearby with better service. Politicians only care about getting their votes, so they won’t have the guts to kill service and reform the program. It’s a shame, because that’s the right thing to do as EAS becomes more and more of a burden on the airlines.

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Cranky Talk – Russia Invades Ukraine

We did things a bit different this week. We started recording last week, and then we realized things were changing so fast in the Russia/Ukraine situation that we just stopped. I’m glad we did, because a whole lot changed between now and then… and honestly, more has likely changed between the time we recorded this and time you actually listen to it.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is nothing short of a humanitarian disaster, and though we were tempted to veer into broader discussion, we did our best to keep this on topic with airlines, aircraft, and everything else in that world.

Email Dave here and ask him why he hasn’t volunteered to go fight for Ukraine yet.

Download Cranky Talk here or listen below.

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This Week’s Featured Link Owners Fear Planes ‘Are Gone Forever’ After Russia Shields Them From Seizure – Bloomberg
It is not a great time to be an aircraft lessor… or an investor in an aircraft lessor. The idea that these airplanes could just be gone is fairly insane.

Image of the Week This is a chart from Sun Country’s recent presentation deck which you can find here. I’d say it’s questionable that seat recline is a benefit, and weighted avg seat pitch isn’t helpful if you’re way in the back, but still, it’s an interesting way to look at it. Two for the Road Avelo Airlines Announces Two New Nonstop Destinations from Hollywood Burbank to the Inland Northwest – Avelo Press Release
Avelo is going to take a swing at two more from Burbank after it keeps striking out elsewhere. Will this stick? Well, they’re bigger markets, but they also have competition from LAX. And only 1 of Avelo’s last 5 attempted new destinations from Burbank is still on the map (Ft Collins, CO).

ANA HOLDINGS Announces Transformative Measures to a New Business Model – ANA Press Room
There is nobody better at announcing a convoluted new plan and making it even more confusing than the Japanese. If you understand this, congratulations.

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Last week I built up the case for Breeze’s presumed use of the A220 on long-haul from Hartford. The first routes are now out, and… oops. I assume Breeze will eventually do Hartford long-haul, but to start, it’s a whole jumble of things that the airline has clearly been planning for a long time. Hartford long-haul flying just isn’t one of them.

Breeze is adding 35 new routes that touch 10 new cities. It’s a route-a-palooza, and there doesn’t seem to be one trend running through this announcement. Some are on the A220, others on the Embraer. And there’s one route that, well, it just stands out. But I won’t get to that until the end. Let’s see if I can break this down into bite-sized pieces.

Let’s start with the airline’s first A220 routes. Here’s a Great Circle Mapper look.

Breeze Initial A220 Route Map generated by the Great Circle Mapper – copyright © Karl L. Swartz. What stands out? Obviously it’s all that flying in the West. The A220 was made to fly longer distances, and it is getting a workout from the start.

Las Vegas is the big winner here, and that’s really not a surprise. It will get flights from Charleston (SC), Fort Myers, Huntsville, Jacksonville, Norfolk, Richmond, and Syracuse, all twice-weekly except for 3x weekly to Charleston and Jacksonville. None of these markets currently have a Vegas flight. Richmond was an experiment for JetBlue during the pandemic, and Frontier did Fort Myers, Jacksonville, and Norfolk for a couple years before the pandemic. Other than that, Southwest did Jacksonville and Norfolk in the past, but it’s been a few years.

Breeze is trying to find that sweet spot where it can go long from Vegas and pick up markets that Allegiant can’t run as well… at least until the MAXs show up. But maybe Breeze will be established by then. Either way, these seem to have a decent chance of working, especially with such low frequency.

In a bit of a surprise, both Los Angeles and San Francisco will also be in the mix. The former will have 2x weekly to Savannah and Providence along with 3x weekly to Norfolk while the latter will have 2x weekly to Louisville and Richmond plus 3x weekly to Charleston. The only reason this is a surprise is that David Neeleman loves his secondary airports, and these are no secondary airports. I wonder if his team was able to convince him that you need at least one primary airport if you’re doing a transcon. If so, good for them, because that makes this a far less insane proposition.

The rest of the new A220 flying is short-haul, and it’s here that Hartford shows up prominently. It will have 2x weekly to Akron/Canton and Sarasota plus 4x weekly to Jacksonville, Nashville, and Savannah. With the exception of Akron/Canton, these are all new cities for the airline, and it fits with the narrative that Hartford would become an important base. I just figured that it would go longer first, but that does not appear to be the case.

The rest of the A220 flying looks like an effort to balance the long-haul with a short-haul in order to get better utilization. That’s why we see 2x weekly in Norfolk – Jacksonville and Savannah, Columbus – Savannah, Charleston – Fort Myers and Syracuse, and Nashville – Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

There’s a lot to unpack in here. Jacksonville is a new destination which makes sense considering it’s part of the bottomless pit of demand that is Florida, albeit somewhat less-so than further south. Nashville is new too. Nashville, you may remember, was supposed to be one of the first bases for the airline when it was leaked, but it was left off the list when the official announcement came. Now it’s starting up with a mix of A220s and Embraers, but it’s all short-haul.

And what about those Embraers? Well, they are doing more work this summer as expected. Jacksonville gets a bunch of new destinations with 2x weekly to Columbus, New Orleans, Providence, and Richmond. This, by the way, is the only new flight New Orleans gets. Of the four original bases, that one has performed the worst.

Providence also picks up some good flying beyond Jacksonville with Columbus, Richmond, and Savannah. Then there are the stragglers of Akron/Canton – Nashville and Hartford – Richmond, both of which seem like connecting the dots and flowing airplanes more than anything else.

And finally, there’s the weirdest one of them all. The only daily flight in the entire announcement is a single daily morning flight from San Bernardino to San Francisco and back. San Bernardino, as you might remember from the guest post by The Cardinal back in 2019, lies about a half an hour east of Ontario Airport. It has never had commercial service despite having built a terminal years ago.

This route is flown by an Embraer which makes it a completely orphaned route since there is no Embraer flying anywhere else west of the Rockies. So what the heck is this about? I know there’s a lot of maintenance work at San Bernardino, so this could be a way to flow airplanes into a base, but with a daily flight and no other connectivity in the network, that seems very weird. Maybe we’re going to see new service at some point. If so, this may make more sense, but then again, it’s unclear how much service San Bernardino can support.

San Bernardino is great in that it has no competition, but there’s a reason for that. It’s not very well positioned compared to other airports in the region. Of course, Breeze wouldn’t try this flight from Ontario because there is already ample service from there to the Bay Area. San Bernardino is just an odd choice, but I can tell you… it’s one that I’ll probably take for a spin sometime just for fun.

This is a momentous day for Breeze since it really is the first time the airline has showed off its original business plan. The Embraers were an after-thought that came later, but the A220s were the heart of the original plan. I imagine some of this, like the Las Vegas flying, will work. The rest, well, we’ll see how it turns out.

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With Spirit and Frontier coming together, everyone has focused on all the similarities… and to be fair, there are many. But the differences are also very telling. There is no place more interesting to see this dynamic than in Atlanta where both airlines have a large and growing operation.

Atlanta, of course, is the home to Delta’s massive hub and home base. Atlanta is the hub of airline dreams. It has a massive local market with a wealth of Fortune 500 companies to fill airplanes. It is also an ideally-located hub to feed the bottomless pit of demand that is Florida. Its current terminal layout which opened in 1980 is as good as it gets for a mega hub. With this, Delta has built a true monster of an operation.

In the past, there have been plenty of competitors in the market. After Eastern failed in early 1991, it was only a couple years until Valujet showed up. That airline was wildly successful, eventually becoming AirTran and proving to be a big thorn in Delta’s side. If Delta had any concerns once Southwest snapped up AirTran in 2011, it shouldn’t have. Southwest de-emphasized Atlanta quickly, keeping it as an important spoke and destination as part of its network but not the low fare be-all, end-all that it was under AirTran.

AirTran was at its peak carrying about a third of the local Atlanta passengers Delta carried domestically (according to Cirium DB1B data) and over 20 percent of what Delta carried out of Atlanta overall, including connections (according to Cirium T100 data). By 2019, Southwest was carrying about a quarter of the local traffic that Delta was taking, and its overall traffic was just over 10% of Delta’s.

Though Delta let AirTran in originally, it has been a fierce defender of the hub more often than not. Remember that second airport that they were working on in Atlanta? Delta had it murdered. Some of that red-tail ruthlessness has certainly lived on.

% of ATL Departing Traffic by Year Data via Cirium T-100 Fortunately for Frontier and Spirit, they don’t much care about that. Frontier has served Atlanta for ages, but originally mostly as a spoke from its Denver hub before it became a ULCC. Spirit entered the market in 2006. In that chart above, you can see those small slivers of green and yellow in the upper right. That still barely makes a dent, but with ultra low costs, both of these airlines think they can make a go of it under Delta’s high fare canopy. And schedules are increasingly rapidly for both airlines coming out of the pandemic.

It was 2013 when Frontier first ventured out beyond Denver with flights to Trenton. It added 5 more cities the next year, and as you’d expect with Frontier, there has been constant shifting of the actual destinations served. Frontier peaked in 2016, but then it pulled back. It came back in a big way in 2021, and it plans to be a whole lot bigger in 2022 with more than 30 destinations.

The only destinations that have been served every year since 2015? Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Miami, New York/LaGuardia, Orlando, Salt Lake, San Francisco, and yes, good ole’ Trenton. Those are actually a pretty good representation of Frontier’s sweet spot. It does a lot of West Coast, Northeast, and Florida/Caribbean.

Frontier and Spirit July 2022 Route Map From Atlanta Frontier (Green) and Spirit (Yellow) Atlanta Routes via Cirum As the map shows, Spirit also does the Northeast, but it has a much bigger presence in the Midwest and Texas than Frontier. The route map is actually rather complementary, but it also beefs up flying to common cities of Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas/Fort Worth, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Houston/IAH, Las Vegas, Miami, New Orleans, Newark, Orlando, Philadelphia, and Tampa.

The service pattern between the two airlines, however, is totally different.

Frontier and Spirit Departing Seats and Destinations From Atlanta Data via Cirum – 2022 not full year for Spirit Spirit has a significantly higher frequency, and that’s where in this merger things will have to sort themselves out. I imagine we will continue to see Spirit’s high frequency pattern to the main markets in Florida and the Northeast. But you can then imagine Frontier’s lower frequency model layering in to serve other destinations. Together, it makes for an impressive footprint.

Atlanta is particularly interesting in this combined network since it is one of the few crew bases for both airlines. Frontier opened its crew base in late 2021 while Spirit just announced it will open a base in Atlanta later this year. They are both obviously very bullish and have plans to grow. Opening a crew base means Frontier is less likely to make a quick reversal in plans as it often does elsewhere.

Delta won’t like this, and it will undoubtedly try to be competitive. But with costs as low as Spirit and Frontier have, Delta will probably have a tough time keeping them down without diluting its own business. Frontier and Spirit are now big enough — and will have even more heft together — that the horse has already left the barn.

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It may not have the blockbuster heft of a Frontier/Spirit merger, but last week WestJet announced it would acquire Sunwing north of the border. I was convinced that WestJet had already moved into too many different types of businesses, but apparently there’s room for one more.

Sunwing is a leisure specialist in the same vein as Air Transat, an airline that recently cozied up to WestJet with a codeshare after its acquisition by Air Canada fell through. At last check, Sunwing had 28 737s split between the 737-800 and the 737 MAX 8.

Sunwing is a very winter-heavy business. Here’s a look at its route map from this January via Cirium.

Sunwing January 2022 Route Map via Cirium In case you’re wondering, this looks a WHOLE lot like the Air Transat map except Sunwing doesn’t have the long range airplanes to do Europe, and it has more of a presence in the West.

Air Transat January 2022 Route Map via Cirium How does Sunwing fit into the WestJet network? Well, let’s take a stroll through WestJet’s history to answer that question.

Here’s the heart of the WestJet network — the flights operated by the 737 fleet — during January of this year. It’s largely focused in the West with some Toronto, but it’s also very north-south.

WestJet January 2022 Route Map for 737s via Cirium Around 2005, WestJet looked around and realized something important… Canada is pretty small. It figured that its growth was limited, so instead of being happy with that, it opted to find different-sized airplanes to stretch its options.

First it looked small, and in 2013 it started up WestJet Encore to operate Q400 turboprops on smaller routes. Here’s this July’s route map:

WestJet Encore July 2022 Route Map via Cirium You can see how it maintains that route through Thunder Bay to flow airplanes back and forth between the east and west. This wasn’t a terrible idea, but it certainly added complexity to an airline that used to be known for its simplicity. But it provided more feed and allowed WestJet to keep growing more than it otherwise expected would be possible.

But wait, there’s more. WestJet then decided that it could go further beyond North America if only it had bigger airplanes with more range. So in 2015 it took delivery of its first used 767s. Those had a more basic product befitting a lower-cost operator, but they were soon replaced by the 787 fleet which has a true, full-service international onboard product. Once again, WestJet added complexity but this again provided more feed opportunity for the rest of its network, adding competition for Air Canada.

WestJet July 2022 Route Map for 787s via Cirium Those widebodies are useful during the summer, as you can see above in the July snapshot, but in the winter they end up doing things like Cancun since there isn’t all that much Transatlantic leisure demand.

At the other end of the spectrum, WestJet heard all these rumblings about low-cost operators starting up in Canada, so it figured it would build one itself. In 2018, Swoop came on the scene.

Swoop July 2022 Route Map via Cirium Swoop basically flies on the leisure routes that WestJet can’t make money flying itself. That’s a lot of flying into secondary US airports but also within Canada as low cost operators like Flair surge and make the market more competitive. I remain highly skeptical of this plan since airlines within an airline have simply not worked elsewhere.

You’d think that would be about the extent of WestJet’s opportunity, but you’d be wrong. WestJet then said, “hey, those Q400s are great, but what about Dawson Creek? Nobody flies there, and there are at least 7 people that we could get to feed into our network.” And so, WestJet Link was born in 2018.

WestJet Link July 2022 Route Map via Cirium WestJet link is actually operated by Pacific Coastal Airlines on Saab 340s to go to places where demand can’t even support a Q400.

That’s it, right? Of course not. WestJet is still relatively weak on the Atlantic side of the country, but there isn’t a huge amount of opportunity… without buying someone out, and that’s how we get to last week’s news.

Sunwing will now give WestJet more of a presence in the east, and it will significantly beef up its vacations product. Integrated vacation tour operators are a big deal in Canada, much more so than in the US. Sunwing and Air Transat are massive travel agencies that also happen to fly their own airplanes.

WestJet had WestJet Vacations, and now it will just integrate that into Sunwing. But the airline will remain separate as well, which seems rather odd. Sunwing will remains as a brand, and it will be based in Toronto as well as having an office in Montreal. This does complement the currently WestJet network in a way that Air Canada thought Air Transat would also do… but Air Canada is too big. WestJet and Sunwing probably aren’t.

Like most of WestJet’s growth over the past decade, this feels like another attempt to find a new avenue in which to expand since existing avenues are running out of opportunity. There’s only so much you can do in a nation of less than 40 million people, but WestJet keeps desperately trying to find a path forward.

Now with some well-funded ULCCs coming on the scene like Flair and Lynx, WestJet is going to continue to face more competition. Maybe the airline thinks going vertical into other parts of travel is the way forward, but that continues to be a risky road. Complexity is not generally the way to success.

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Russia’s largest airline yanked from global reservation systems – CNN

Sabre Ends Distribution of Aeroflot Flights in Travel Tech Retreat From Russia – Skift

Remember the pandemic? Nobody else does either now that we have a ground war in Europe. And there have been a lot of questions about Sabre and Aeroflot. I was happy to chime in here noting that shutting off the GDS as Sabre has done is a minor issue — potentially bigger for those not in Russia who have tickets and reservations outstanding. But if Sabre shuts off everything else, then it gets really ugly, really fast for Aeroflot.

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This Week’s Featured Link aha! on underserved market potential of Reno-Tahoe: “We’ve identified 25 markets that can be served nonstop with the Embraer 145” – Anna.aero
Curious what aha! is up to? Well, now you know.

Photo of the Week What a sad photo this is. The only completed Antonov AN-225 Mriya was reportedly destroyed by the Russians when they invaded Ukraine. Those bastards. Here we see her in happier times… with a big smiler on her face. Two for the Road After 80 years, is Thermal’s Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport poised to take off? – Palm Springs Desert Sun
This is a great long look at Thermal airport, in the eastern part of the Coachella Valley. (Palm Springs sits at the western end.)

Storm Eunice: Flight passengers ‘hyperventilating and being sick’ on plane that couldn’t land at Heathrow – inews.co.uk
No thank you.

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For 100 years, aviation has made the world a smaller place. Within 2 days, people can be just about anywhere they want to be, anywhere on Earth. If you had told someone that in the year 1900, you’d have been laughed out of town. But now, we’re taking steps backwards. In the last couple weeks, the world has gotten larger again thanks to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Russia has been targeting Ukraine for years, but things began to escalate as the country moved more troops to the border, and that was bad news for aviation. Belarus was already an effective no-fly zone once its government forced an airplane flying over the country to divert so it could pull off a passenger it didn’t like. Despite being a neighbor, that was never a concern with Ukraine. After all, Ukraine had aligned itself more with western, pro-democracy ideals. The bigger concern was the skirmishing in the east of the country between Russia and Ukraine, with the former accidentally shooting down Malaysia flight 17 previously. Once Russia invaded the rest of the country, flights were shut down.

This set up a fairly large geographic area that had no flights, but it would have been nothing more than a minor inconvenience for most of the global carriers to just go around. But once Russian airspace became a pawn in the war, well, now things are getting much more challenging.

Countries weren’t willing to put troops on the ground to repel the Russian invasion, but they were more than happy to inflict economic pain. And a part of inflicting that kind of pain involves hindering the building blocks of trade. After all, aviation is about enabling the transport of goods and people across borders. To punish Russia, the European Union decided to go deep, removing all Freedoms of the Air.

Back in 1944 at the Chicago Convention, the world’s governments agreed on the five principle Freedoms of the Air. The very first freedom is the right for one country’s aircraft to fly over another country without stopping. That freedom is quite widely available though some places like Russia have made it more difficult over the years to get permission. Other freedoms involving stopping but not carrying passengers, carrying passengers to a country, etc.

The European Union and Canada closed their airspace not only to Russian registered aircraft but also to anything even remotely tied to Russia. That’s because many Russian oligarchs have their private jets registered elsewhere. With this, EU and Canada have closed themselves off completely from Russia, further isolating the country to punish its sins. This has nearly bisected the world, especially since Russia returned the favor. Take a look at this screenshot from Flightradar24.

You would normally expect more in the middle of the screen, but you’d also expect more at the top, flying between Europe and Asia. That route has been shut off, forcing everyone through those narrow corridors to the south.

This will most certainly have a bigger impact on Russians than elsewhere in the world. Not only does it hobble their ability to travel, but it also takes away much needed revenue from European carriers overflying Russia to get to Asia.

This is, of course, a big hit to European airlines as well, but it’s not as big as it would have been in, say, 2019. That’s because travel to North Asia remains severely depressed thanks to COVID restrictions, so the timing is great to take a stand, if you want to even consider economics.

For some airlines in the EU, it is still a tough pill to swallow. None could feel worse about this than Finnair which relies almost entirely on overflying Russia to connect people over its Helsinki hub to Asia. The airline is feeling very bearish right now, and for good reason. It will fly from Helsinki to Tokyo via the southern route, but instead of taking under 9 hours, it will take 13.

It does seem callous to even entertain this thought since lives and freedom are at stake and matter much more than economics, but we all know how the world works. Economics always comes into play. The good news here is that these airlines can survive this, even if it requires the help of the government. Russia and its airlines stand to suffer far more, especially now that Boeing has said it will stop supporting Russian airlines’ aircraft. Do we call this the Aluminum Curtain, er, uh Composite Curtain?

Bringing this back to the US, does it even matter? The impact is limited, but it’s not zero. First, it should be noted that no US airline flies to Russia. Yes, Aeroflot, the Russian majority state-owned airline flies to the US… or it did before the airspace was closed. But that was already increasingly difficult with the EU and Canada closing airspace anyway.

Just because US airlines don’t fly there doesn’t mean they won’t be impacted. Most global US airlines fly over Russia to get to points in Asia after using the polar route. Today, the biggest hit will be on flights to and from India. No, there aren’t many, but they do exist. Here’s a recent United flight from Mumbai to Newark via Flightradar24.

Just one day later, United had to taken the southern route.

But wait, that’s not Newark, you say? Correct. It took United more than half an hour longer going this way… and that only got it to Bangor where it had to stop for fuel. This is one of the flights that United will suspend for now as it looks at options.

This is also an issue for flights over the pole like Newark to Beijing… except that hasn’t flown in ages thanks to the COVID restrictions that are in place. If this drags on and on, it will become a concern. But for now, it’s really about India.

So, ultimately, the impact on US airlines is small. The impact on US travelers is probably pretty small as well, since I can’t imagine that many people need to go to Russia for any reason these days. The impact on Russia, however, is enormous. So far, Russia seems to be content absorbing all this pain, but the pain is far from done. Things are changing quickly to the point that I wouldn’t be surprised if this was already outdated by the time you read it.

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We hope you enjoyed the Cranky Network Awards this evening. If you missed it, you’re going to want to watch it here.

For those who did watch, you saw at the end that we decided to auction off four models that Boeing provided for the event to a) make you not feel too left out at home and b) help support pilot training. This is how you do it!

These are no plastic models you find the airport gift shop. These are beautifully-crafted, 1:100 scale (except for the 777-9 which is 1:144) models that will make every Avgeek’s heart race that look a little something like this.

The five you can bid on are:

• American Boeing 737 MAX 8
• Boeing House Colors 777-9
• Delta Boeing 717-200
• Southwest Boeing 737 MAX 8 (Canyon Blue colors)
• United Boeing 787-10 (Previous colors)

After shipping costs, the winning bids will be donated to the EAA to help fund pilot scholarships, so win a model and do good for the industry. Here are the details.

• Bids can be submitted below through Monday, February 28 at 5pm Pacific Time.
• Minimum bid is $50 per model.
• The winning bid will include shipping to an address in the US or Canada. If you are outside these countries, you will need to pay extra for shipping.
• If you want to bid on multiple units, you can submit multiple bids for as many as you’d like.
• The winner will be contacted after the auction closes with a link to submit payment and a request for shipping address.

Loading… Thank you very much to Boeing for providing these models at the event!

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The day has arrived. After months of preparation, the stars of the airline network planning world will descend on beautiful Pasadena, California this evening for the Cranky Network Awards

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We know you can’t all be there, but don’t worry, it will be streaming live at 6:30pm PT tonight at this link.

We hope you can tune in, but if you live in Europe, well, that’s a pretty early morning for you. Sorry about that. But don’t worry. You can watch a rerun at this link as well.

Get ready for a night of fun….

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Avelo started in Burbank, and it has made all sorts of network tweaks there to find a path to success. I’m not convinced it has found a way, but its second base in New Haven? That seems like much more of a slam dunk. Now, Avelo is going to test the waters to see just how much further it can stretch that base by going beyond Florida.

While Burbank has seen massive upheaval with several routes being cut, others being announced and not started, and few showing signs of growth, New Haven’s path has been far more clear. The airline launched in early November with less-than-daily service to four cities in Florida — Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Orlando, and Tampa. It added West Palm Beach in December and Sarasota in January. The trajectory has been nothing but up…

Avelo New Haven Departing Seats by Day Data via Cirium Last week, Avelo added more frequency growth in Florida starting this summer. This new growth meant Avelo would have to acquire a fourth 737-700 to run its schedule. We looked into this in more detail in Cranky Network Weekly last week, and I’m pleased to share the chart we put together comparing March to July.

As you can see in that chart, the fourth aircraft was very sparsely used. And now, we know what it will be doing to bide its time. In May, Avelo will open up service to 4 non-Florida destinations.

• Charleston (SC) will operate 4x weekly (Tue/Thu/Sat/Sun)
• Myrtle Beach will operate 1x daily
• Nashville will operate 4x weekly (Mon/Wed/Fri/Sat)
• Savannah will operate 4x weekly (Mon/Wed/Fri/Sat)

This fits nicely into the available schedule for that fourth aircraft, but… will it work?

These markets all mark the checkbox of “route that has seen good demand growth during the pandemic.” Nashville was hot before, and the rest took off in 2021 as people looked for places to visit closer to home.

Here you can take a look at seat change by market by year.

Domestic Seats % Change by Year Data via Cirium Does this mean these routes will work from little New Haven? I don’t think any of us can say for sure, but they are most definitely appealing from a leisure perspective — at least to some, I will never understand the appeal of Myrtle Beach. I imagine those Tuesday flights will be tough, but maybe the weekends have a better shot.

At some point, Avelo is going to have to move on, because there just isn’t much room in that terminal to handle more than this. This seems like a credible effort to build on the success that has already happened in New Haven. If it works, it can help add to the blueprint for future markets. If not, well, there’s always Florida.

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There will be no Cranky Flier post on Monday since we will be celebrating the Presidents… or at least the good ones. I’ll be back Tuesday as usual.

Travel’s Theme for 2022? ‘Go Big’ – The New York Times
I spoke with the NYT about what travel is going to look like as we come out of the Omicron wave. This is a lengthy look at what’s happening.

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This Week’s Featured Link Sea-Tac Airport employees weathered a ‘perfect storm’ this winter – Seattle Times
It was not a good holiday for Seattle, but now you can read through all the things that hit the airport time and time again.

Video of the (Next) Week This is a video that you can’t watch. It’s actually the link to the Cranky Network Awards 2022 livestream which will begin at 6:30pm PT next Thursday, February 24. Bookmark it now so you can join the fun. Two for the Road Hunter Keay to Avelo – LinkedIn
That’s quite the grab for Avelo to have Hunter as their CFO. I wonder why he made the jump down there?

PDX and Its Iconic Carpet: Reunited (And It Feels So Good) – PDX Next
I think just about everyone would admit there is an unhealthy love of Portland’s carpet pattern. But still, nice to see it coming back. And I had no idea there was one spot it still lived.

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Alex Corey, Alaska’s MD of Revenue Products & Strategy, told me yesterday that the airline had been developing the idea of entering the subscription game for years — they were just looking for the right time and opportunity. About a year ago they began working with Caravelo on a firm plan, and yesterday all that hard work became public with the rollout of the Flight Pass and Flight Pass Pro.

The over-arching idea was to create something that would play into the never-ending appetite for subscriptions. Alex rattled off all sorts of numbers, including that subscriptions would reach $1.5 trillion by 2025 and there is a growing trend of “power subscribers” who have more than 10 subscriptions at a time. With the pandemic trends of people being able to work from anywhere along with wanting “safe exploration” and nearby vacations, Alaska figured it had finally found its opportunity.

First, Alaska had to define a target market, so it could build the right product. Initially that was the price-sensitive traveler who liked the idea of having an “incredibly low fixed price” that would allow them to plan their travels out for a full year. A college student going home (or on spring break) was an obvious example of someone with regular travel needs and a low budget. That defines the Flight Pass market.

The Flight Pass Pro, however, was more about flexibility than price. Small businesses that wanted to set their travel budgets firmly were a perfect opportunity. And so, the team went to work on crafting a product.

Alaska turned to California as the right geography. Again shooting off stats, Alex noted that there are 3.5 times more people traveling within California than any other state. The airline’s network in California is thick with short-haul flying, but that wasn’t quite enough. Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Reno were thrown into the mix to make sure there was enough variety to attract travelers. Here’s the map.

Image via Alaska Airlines California made sense logistically, but also in my mind, this was a play to take a bigger chunk of what is a highly competitive market that Alaska can’t win. Southwest is the 800 lb gorilla within California, and the addition of Fresno, Palm Springs, and Santa Barbara during the pandemic has only solidified that further. Alaska does have some unique markets, like Santa Rosa and San Luis Obispo, but intra-California is a market Southwest refuses to lose. By creating a subscription product, Alaska was able to come up with something that Southwest likely won’t be able to match — quick tech development is, shall we say kindly, not its strong suit. Beyond that, it should give Alaska a nice little marketing bump.

For those with starry-eyed memories of the old JetBlue All You Can Jet pass, this couldn’t be more different. That was a flat fee for a month of travel. This is a flattish fee for a set number of trips. It’s clear that Alaska architected this very intricately.

Flight Passes come in two flavors. The Flight Pass requires booking travel more than 14 days in advance of departure. The Flight Pass Pro allows you to book same day. The Flight Pass is about price, so it starts at $49 a month while the Flight Pass Pro is about flexibility, so it starts at $199 a month. All plans require a full 12-month commitment.

These come in three denominations. You can buy 6, 12 or 24 roundtrips in a year. And yes, all of these have to be booked as roundtrips. No one-ways allowed.

When a travel uses a Flight Pass, taxes and fees are still on the traveler. Since these are all domestic, that means every traveler will pay the September 11 Security Fee of $5.60, the segment fee of $4.50, and unless there’s an airport that doesn’t charge it, the passenger facility charge of $4.50.

Further, each ticket comes with a minimum fare of $0.01. Alex said it made it a lot easier for them to have an actual fare, but he didn’t get into details. The pass books into a “middle upper fare bucket,” but I couldn’t get any hard details about what that bucket is. I was told, however, that it can vary. And if that bucket isn’t available? Travelers will still be able to book that flight at a discounted rate, but one that is higher than a penny.

I did a little digging on my own on the microsite and looked at LA to San Francisco tomorrow. Based on the selling fares, it looks like this books into M class. If only K, H, or B are available then it’s an extra $100. If only Y is available, it’s $200 more. On the other hand, Santa Rosa appears to book in H, and only B or Y would have premiums. I didn’t check to see if this varies by date or just by route.

But let’s assume that you never run into that problem and you can always book an available flight. Is it worth it? Well, here’s the math provided by Alaska.

This is not a bad deal. Sure, you can sometimes pay less than $127 for a roundtrip, but it all depends on where you’re flying. If you do Vegas in the middle of the week, this is probably a bad deal. But if you do Santa Rosa? Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

The reality though is that this isn’t about gaming and trying to figure out what’s the way to save the most money. This idea is about simplicity and consistency. It makes it easy for someone to budget for travel, and that’s why people like subscriptions in the first place.

Of course, it requires someone who plans to regularly travel on the routes the airline has, and I imagine that will create some interesting geographical differences. For example, it’s a much more robust network if you live on the peninsula in between San Francisco and San Jose than, say, if you live in Orange County. I hope I can coax Alaska to share geographic data down the line.

As far as the airline is concerned, this is a “long-term, ongoing product,” so this isn’t just a test. Could it make it into another market? Alex says it’s possible, but California is pretty unique with its network and with Alaska’s need to juice the business there.

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There’s been plenty of talk about New York/LaGuardia finally having shed itself of the old Central Terminal Area with its gleaming new Terminal B. While the rebuild of Delta’s Terminal C continues, the real action is shifting over to JFK where the Port Authority is spending (checks notes) $300 gagillion babillion to get rid of several terminals and remake the airport.

I’m not going to get into access changes in this post, but instead, I’ll focus on the airlines and terminals. Despite there being terminals numbered up to 8, there are actually only 6 at JFK these days. That’s because the old Pan Am Worldport (Terminal 3) is now pavement, and the old National Sundrome (Terminal 6) — also JetBlue’s first home — was razed a few years back.

That leaves things broken down as you can see on the map below.

There isn’t an easy way to categorize each of these terminals and their functions, but I’ll try my best.

• Terminal 1 is an international terminal with some strange bedfellows thanks to airlines jointly owning the terminal that don’t necessarily have commercial relationships with each other. Tenants include Aeroflot, Air France (but not KLM), EVA, Japan Airlines, Korean Air, Lufthansa Group (but not Eurowings), Turkish, and a whole bunch of cats and dogs.
• Terminal 2 is still used by Delta. It was closed during the pandemic when traffic was low, but Delta still needs it to run its full operation.
• Terminal 4 is now Delta’s main terminal with the westernmost concourse B being Delta’s domain. The terminal is also the primary international terminal for Delta’s partners — including Aeromexico, KLM, LATAM, Virgin Atlantic, and WestJet — along with a ton of other airlines ranging from Emirates to Copa and everything in between.
• Terminal 5 is JetBlue’s home except for international arrivals late at night which must go through Terminal 4. JetBlue partners Aer Lingus and Hawaiian also call the place home.
• Terminal 7 is the British Airways terminal, but it also includes a weird mix of airlines ranging from Aerolineas Argentinas to Eurowings and Icelandair. You’ll also find the domestic cats and dogs here… Alaska and United.
• Terminal 8 is the American terminal, and over the years it has grown — or American has shrunk — to include partners Cathay Pacific, Finnair, Qatar, and Royal Jordanian. For some reason, Ethiopian is also in this terminal, though I have no idea why.

For many reasons, this arrangement is not great. Usually in big cities, alliances like to be closer together, but that is not the case at JFK where they are all scattered to the wind. Several coming projects are going to now effectively eliminate two terminals and help to fix this mess.

Here is what it will look like in the end with brown being existing terminals and green being new construction.

Alright, so what is happening here?

Terminal 4 Extension Delta recently broke ground on an extension of Concourse A in Terminal 4. This will add 10 gates. That may not sound like a lot, but it also wasn’t Delta’s original plan. This will allow Delta to consolidate its entire operation in Terminal 4, abandoning Terminal 2 for good, so it’s an important move.

The New Terminal 1 With Terminal 2 emptied, it will be razed. That will allow the new Terminal 1 to be built in phases. This new terminal will sit on top of the footprints of Terminals 1, 2, and the gone-but-not-forgotten 3. I assume this will allow United to reunite with partner Lufthansa Group over in Terminal 1. Heck, this will also allow Lufthansa Group to unite itself, with Eurowings presumably moving over. Other cats and dogs like Ethiopian should be able to move in with friendly Star Alliance partners in Terminal 1 as well, I’d think, but it’s too early to know that for sure. That being said, I doubt this will be a Star terminal since there will still be other legacy airlines in the mix.

Terminal 8 Expansion My assumption about United and Eurowings leaving for Terminal 1 is partially informed by the fact that their current home at Terminal 7 isn’t going to be there long. This terminal will be razed. British Airways will be moving over into Terminal 8 with its joint venture partner American, something that’s long overdue. There is a minor project in Terminal 8 to add a couple new gates, some hardstands, and lounge space so that it can adequately support BA’s operation. Over time, I imagine that Alaska might find a way into this terminal as well since it has to leave Terminal 7, is a member of oneworld, and has an important partnership with American.

The New Terminal 6 With Terminal 7 out of the way, they can finally rebuild the new Terminal 6 which is really just going to be an extension of Terminal 5 with more international capability. This won’t be a huge, with only 9 new gates at last check. But it should allow JetBlue’s growth and provide a place for some of JetBlue’s closer international partners to relocate.

When this is all said and done… I’m pretty sure JFK will still be a mess. But the facilities will all be nice and new, and partners should be able to locate closer to each other, making it easier for travelers. I’m not sure how all the rats will feel about their homes being demolished, but I guess you can’t please everyone.

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Cranky Talk – Spirit and Frontier Merge!

We had a whole plan for this week’s Cranky Talk, and then Frontier and Spirit had to ruin it with this whole merger thing. Ok, so maybe they didn’t ruin it, but Dave gets fired up about corporate mergers, so we decided to do a last minute pivot and talk about the merger… even though we don’t know much about it yet.

This was the least structured Cranky Talk yet. We just decided to start talking. Or really, Dave would ask me questions and then I’d drone on and on. It was a good time.

Email Dave here and tell him how you feel about mergers.

Download Cranky Talk here or listen below.

A big thank you to all of our Cranky Network Awards sponsors (in alpha order): AirlineGeeks.com, Anuvu, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Cirium, Landline, Ontario International Airport, Pittsburgh International Airport, Southern Airways Express/Mokulele, and The Air Current.

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What the Frontier-Spirit deal means for RDU, other mid-sized airports – Triangle Business Journal
Any time there’s a merger, every town wants to know what it means for them. I’ve spoken with a few outlets on the Frontier/Spirit merger, but I just don’t have answers. We don’t know enough yet, but it probably won’t be bad for any specific locality if I’m making my best guess.

What does Spirit-Frontier merger mean for South Florida? – ABC 10 Miami
Here’s another local outlet, but South Florida has a huge vested interest in this since it has a big presence from both along with Spirit’s headquarters.

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This Week’s Featured Link Finnair long-haul revamp: New business class and premium economy cabins on offer – PaxEx.aero
Finnair is putting a new cabin on its long-haul fleet, and the new business class seat is the most interesting. It’s what they call a “nest” in the sense that there is no fixed recline. You just use the different parts of the seat to move around and get comfortable in different ways. I have absolutely no idea how that works in practice, especially with seatbelts, but I do like when airlines try something different.

Video of the Week Turkish has a new ad campaign out this week starring Morgan Freeman. And of course, it sounds amazing, because it’s Morgan Freeman. Only thing better would be if instead of saying Pangea, he said titty sprinkles. But still, this one is visually stunning with a nice brand message, if that’s a thing that matters. Two for the Road United Plans to Expand Service to Cape Town With Year-Round, Non-Stop Flights From New York/Newark – United Newsroom
I’m making it official. Winning the Network Victory Award at the Cranky Network Awards has the opposite effect of getting on the Sports Illustrated cover. United is taking last year’s winner — Newark to Cape Town — year-round now.

Stewart Airport welcomes $37M facility, return of international flights amid recovery – Times Herald-Record
I assume that when WOW Jr — better known as PLAY — decided to add flights from its Keflavik base to New York’s Stewart, the discussion must have been something like this:
Someoneson 1: New York airports are expensive
Someondottir 2: Not Stewart
Someoneson: What’s a Stewart?
Someondottir: It’s an airport only 1,000 miles north of the city
Someoneson: Let’s do it