New Podcast is LIVE: Mark & Riley EPL Update:  Inside the pod, we review the updated 2018 EPL model, including a review of:

• 538 Soccer model - number of goals a team would score against an average team
• Expected goals - probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)

Riley also goes into his new Tactical rating system, attempting to quantify: 

• Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
• Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
• Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
• Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
• Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game

The early results from the model are fantastic: Moneyline:  28 plays, 50%, +5.03 units won Over/Under: 26 plays, 62%, +7.33 units won BTTS: 5 plays, 20%, -4.13 units won Asian Handicap: 2 plays, 50%, +0.26 units won Overall:  EPL: 55 plays, 56%, +8.85 units UCL: 7 plays, 28%, -0.36 units

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/epl-11-new-podcast-mark-riley-epl-update/