Power Problems: Recent Episodes
Cato Institute
Power Problems is a bi-weekly podcast from the Cato Institute. Host John Glaser offers a skeptical take on U.S. foreign policy, and discusses today’s big questions in international security with distinguished guests from across the political spectrum. Podcast Hashtag: #FPPowerProblems.
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Rachel Metz, assistant professor of political science at George Washington University, explains why security assistance, one of the most ubiquitous programs in U.S. foreign policy, so often fails. She argues that bureaucratic interests, organizational processes, and perverse dynamics of civil-military relations discourage conditioning U.S. support for partner militaries. She also discusses the role of norms in the U.S. Army, the need for greater civilian oversight and management, why the policymakers need to be more selective about security assistance, and how U.S. political leaders have expanded the military’s roles and responsibilities to the detriment of an effective U.S. strategy.
Show Notes
Rachel Tecott Metz; “The Cult of the Persuasive: Why U.S. Security Assistance Fails,” International Security 2022/2023; 47 (3): 95–135.
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Jonathan Kirshner, professor of political science and international studies at Boston College, discusses his most recent book, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics. Kirshner provides fundamental critiques of structural realism and offensive realism and argues for classical realism’s greater explanatory power and firmer theoretical underpinnings. He also covers rationalist explanations for war, the role of change and uncertainty in world politics, the rise of China, and why effective grand strategy requires a healthy politics, among other topics.
Show Notes
Jonathan Kirshner, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics, Princeton University Press, 2022.
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Mark Hannah, senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs, the nonprofit housed at the Eurasia Group, and host of the None of the Above podcast, argues that President Biden has not used the leverage US support provides over Israel in its war in Gaza and Ukraine in its war with Russia, prolonging the conflicts instead of imposing real conditions and pressing for negotiated resolutions. He discusses the recently passed aid bill, Israel’s planned attack on Rafah and Biden’s threat to withhold aid, and the politics within each party over Israel and Ukraine, as well as the American addiction to war and tendency to construe international conflicts in simplified Manichean terms, among other issues.
Show Notes
- Mark Hannah, “Biden needs to get real with Ukraine and Israel,” CNN, April 26, 2024
- Mark Hannah, “Straight Talk on the Country’s War Addiction,” New York Times, February 18, 2023
- Mark Hannah, “Why Is the Wartime Press Corps So Hawkish,” Foreign Policy, March 30, 2022
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David Sterman, senior policy analyst at New America’s Future Security Program, tracks U.S. counter-terrorism airstrikes, particularly with drones. He discusses the history of drone strikes in post-9/11 U.S. counter-terrorism policy from Bush to Biden, the issue of civilian casualties, Biden’s quiet use of drone strikes in Yemen and Somalia, the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the problems of threat inflation and secrecy in covert strikes, defining endless war, and reform proposals for how to rein in America’s unachievable objectives and make U.S. counter-terrorism operations more transparent.
Show Notes
- David Sterman, “How Many People Does the US Assess it Killed in Somalia in 2023?,” NewAmerica.org, April 2, 2024
- David Sterman, “The United States Should Provide a Detailed Accounting of its Operations in Yemen,” NewAmerica.org, August 3, 2023
- David Sterman, “Endless War Challenges Analysis of Drone Strike Effectiveness,” Journal of National Security Law and Policy, May 6, 2023
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James Bosworth, founder of Hxagon and columnist at World Politics Review, discusses the various "push factors" throughout Latin America and the Caribbean driving the recent upsurge in migration to the US-Mexico border. He covers US-Mexico relations as well as gang violence, poor governance problems, and other instability in Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and beyond. Bosworth also discusses the transnational network dynamics of criminal organizations throughout the region, including their involvement in human trafficking, and argues that only an internationally coordinated approach within the hemisphere can mitigate such problems. Finally, he explains why the US's drug war approach to the region is misguided and provides recommendations for how DC can better approach this hemisphere's problems.
Show Notes
- James Bosworth at World Politics Review
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Jon Hoffman, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute and adjunct professor at George Mason University, argues for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.'s "special relationship" with Israel. He discusses the dire scale of Israel's siege of Gaza and why it qualifies as collective punishment, Israel's lack of clear military objectives in Gaza and plans to attack Rafah, and the widespread regional ramifications of the conflict. He also talks about the negative consequences of unwavering US support for Israel, the military-heavy US approach to the Middle East, the Abraham Accords and Biden's prospective normalization deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and explains what having a "normalized" U.S.-Israel relationship would look like.
Show Notes
Jon Hoffman bio
Jon Hoffman, "Israel is a Strategic Liability for the United States," ForeignPolicy.com, March 22, 2024
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Dale Copeland, professor of international relations at the University of Virginia and author of the new book A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China, talks about his "dynamic realism" theory of great power war and peace, emphasizing the critical causal role of future trade expectations. Copeland discusses case studies from the American Revolutionary War to the Spanish-American War and the beginnings of the Cold War and then applies his theory to U.S.-China relations across a range of policy areas, with important insights into how to avert a catastrophic war.
Show Notes
- Dale Copeland bio
- A World Safe for Commerce
- Economic Interdependence and War
- The Origins of Major War
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Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the lack of strategic focus in the Biden administration's foreign policy and argues that genuine prioritization requires retrenchment. The U.S. should draw down from Europe and the Middle East, he argues, and step away from formal security commitments there in order to avoid getting entangled in conflicts where U.S. interests are not vital. He also discusses Biden's maladroit approach to East Asian security, particularly Taiwan, the failure of his "democracy vs autocracy" rhetoric, and the prospects for a negotiated resolution to the war in Ukraine, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Stephen Wertheim bio
- Stephen Wertheim, "Why America Can't Have it All," Foreign Affairs, February 14, 2024
- Stephen Wertheim, "Biden's Democracy-Defense Credo Does Not Serve U.S. Interests," The Atlantic, January 23, 2024
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Paul Poast, associate professor of political science at University of Chicago, discusses the concept of hegemony in international relations and puts forth several models to explain a state's willingness to take on the global responsibilities of a hegemon. He also explains hegemonic stability theory, analyzes the Biden administration's democracy vs autocracy rhetoric, and suggests the United States may be a hegemon in decline.
Show Notes
- Paul Poast bio
- Paul Poast, "Don't Blame Lack of Will for the United States' Waning Hegemony," World Politics Review, January 26, 2024
- Paul Poast, "Biden's 'Defending Democracy' Agenda is All Talk," World Politics Review, February 2, 2024.
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Elite politics shape and constrain democratic leaders in decisions about the use of force and tend to induce a hawkish bias into war-time foreign policy. So says Columbia University professor Elizabeth N. Saunders in her forthcoming book The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War and Peace. She explores how elite politics influenced presidential decisions in U.S. wars including Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond. She also discusses the problems of the public's rational ignorance of foreign policy and the tensions between an elite-centric foreign policy and democratic values, among other topics.
- Elizabeth N. Saunders bio
- Elizabeth N. Saunders, The Insider’s Game: How Elites Make War and Peace (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2024). Forthcoming.
- Elizabeth N. Saunders, “Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Policy,” Annual Review of Political Science 25 (May 2022): pp. 219-240.
- Chaim Kauffman, “Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq War,” International Security 29, no. 1 (Summer 2004): pp. 5-48.
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Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses the increasing instability in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, Russia's war in Ukraine and the implications for the US role in the world, and rising US-China tensions over Taiwan. He also talks about the risks of emerging economic nationalism, middle powers, the US addiction to primacy and American exceptionalism, and the problems of trying to manage global politics from Washington.
Show Notes
- Robert Manning bio
- Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “The ‘New’ New Middle East and Its Consequences,” Stimson Center, October 11, 2023.
- Robert A. Manning and Matthew Burrows, “Red Cell: The Fallacy of Perpetual US Primacy,” Stimson Center, February 7, 2023.
- Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “Is the US Getting Multilateralism Wrong?” Stimson Center, April 11, 2023.
- Robert A. Manning, “Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?” Stimson Center, October 27, 2023.
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William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft explains the problem of retired military brass working for the arms industry and how this revolving door tends to militarize U.S. foreign policy. He also discusses China's military buildup and why it shouldn't automatically translate to bigger U.S. defense budgets. Other topics include the military industrial complex, Eisenhower's Farewell Address, the Pentagon's inability to pass an audit, and threat inflation, among others.
Show Notes
- William Hartung and Dillon Fisher, "March of the Four-Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry, " Quincy Brief No. 47, October 4, 2023.
- William Hartung, "Reality Check: Chinese Military Spending in Context," Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute, December 5, 2023.
- William Hartung, "Good Times for the Military Industrial Complex," TomDispatch.com, November 12, 2023.
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Renewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanagh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective.
Show Notes
- Jennifer Kavanagh bio
- Jennifer Kavanagh and Frederic Wehrey, "Washington's Looming Middle Eastern Quagmire," Foreign Affairs, November 24, 2023.
- Jennifer Kavanagh and Bryan Frederick, "Why Force Fails," Foreign Affairs, March 30, 2023
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Weaponizing global supply chains is self-defeating and alters supply chain networks in ways that accelerate, rather than slow China’s rise. University of Connecticut assistant professor Miles Evers discusses how business-state relationships affect international relations. He also describes how economic coercion drives away potential allies and business, which allows China to innovate and increase its share of global trade despite US sanctions.
Show Notes
- Miles Evers bio
- Ling S. Chen and Miles M. Evers, “’Wars without Gun Smoke’: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft,” International Security 48, no. 2 (Fall 2023): pp. 164-204.
- Miles M. Evers, “Discovering the Prize: Information, Lobbying, and the Origins of US–Saudi Security Relations,” European Journal of International Relations 29, no. 1 (March 2023): pp. 104-128.
- Miles M. Evers, “Just the Facts: Why Norms Remain Relevant in an Age of Practice,” International Theory 12, no. 2 (2020): pp. 220-230.
- Geoffrey Gertz and Miles M. Evers, “Geoeconomic Competition: Will State Capitalism Win?” The Washington Quarterly 43, no. 2 (2020): pp. 117-136.
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Common but unsound conceptions of credibility and reputation in international politics have persistently promoted unnecessary militarism and prevented the United States from shedding even unnecessary security commitments abroad. Boston College assistant professor Joshua Byun explains the concepts of reputation and credibility in international politics and uses survey data to undermine the conventional wisdom that a reputation for resolve is necessary for a country’s credibility. He also discusses the implications of situational resolve and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies’ opinions of US credibility.
Show Notes
- Joshua Byun bio
- D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “U.S. Alliance Credibility after the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy Blog, September 6, 2023.
- Joshua Byun and Do Young Lee, “The Case against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia,”The Washington Quarterly 44, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 67-87.
- D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “Remember Kabul? Reputation, Strategic Contexts, and American Credibility after the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy (September 5, 2023).
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Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the work of renowned realist thinker Reinhold Niebuhr. He explores Niebuhr’s views on war, politics, and American Exceptionalism, and argues that Niebuhr's restraint-oriented ideas are just what is needed in contemporary debates about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the rivalry with China.
Show Notes
- Christopher Chivvis bio
- Christopher S. Chivvis, “The Humility of Restraint: Niebuhr’s Insights for a More Grounded Twenty-First-Century American Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace working paper, November 22, 2021.
- Christopher S. Chivvis, “Some Politicians Seem Comfortable with the Idea of a New Cold War. They Shouldn’t.” The Guardian, February 22, 2023.
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Justin Logan, Cato’s director of defense and foreign policy studies, and Jon Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at Cato, discuss the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas and the imperative of avoiding further U.S. entanglement in the Middle East. They talk about the deep problems with the Abraham Accords, Biden's misguided bid for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, how client states employ "reverse leverage" on their U.S. patron, whether Israel can avoid America's post-9/11 mistakes, and the prospects for a genuine change in U.S. policy towards this region, among other issues.
Show Notes
- Justin Logan bio
- Jon Hoffman bio
- Jon Hoffman and Justin Logan, “Time to Change Course in the Middle East,” National Interest, October 21, 2023.
- Justin Logan, “The Hamas-Israel War,” Cato at Liberty, October 14, 2023.
- Jon Hoffman, “Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 961, September 20, 2023.
- Jon Hoffman, “A Shaky Foundation,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 939, December 20, 2022.
- Justin Logan, “The Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East,” Defense Priorities, September 30, 2020.
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The U.S.'s frequent use of force abroad erodes the international order's most fundamental principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway discusses the erosion of domestic constraints on presidential war powers and the increasing official resort to untenable self-defense doctrines to justify its military actions under international law. She also explains why chipping away at the prohibition on the use of force undermines international order, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Oona Hathaway bio
- Oona A. Hathaway, “How the Expansion of ‘Self-Defense’ Has Undermined Constraints on the Use of Force,” Just Security, September 18, 2023.
- Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017).
- Oona A. Hathaway et al., “Yemen: Is the U.S. Breaking the Law?” Harvard National Security Journal 10 (2019).
- Oona Hathaway, “National Security Lawyering in the Post-War Era: Can Law Constrain Power?” UCLA Law Review 68, rev. 2 (2021).
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Rose McDermott, Professor of International Relations at Brown University, argues that dominant theories of nuclear brinkmanship lack a nuanced understanding of the crucial factor of human psychology. She discusses the psychology of political leaders, the rational actor model, Thomas Schelling's notion of "threats that leave something to chance," the psychology of revenge, the coercive utility of nuclear weapons, and why nuclear deterrence may not be as stable as many people think, among other topics.
- Show Notes
- Rose McDermott bio
- Reid B.C. Pauly and Rose McDermott, “The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship,” International Security 47, no. 3 (2023): pp. 9-51.
- James W. Davis and Rose McDermott, “The Past, Present, and Future of Behavioral IR,” International Organization 75, no. 1 (2022): pp. 147-177.
- Rose McDermott, Anthony C. Lopez, and Peter K. Hatemi, “’Blunt Not the Heart, Enrage It’: The Psychology of Revenge and Deterrence,” Texas National Security Review 1, no. 1 (November 2017): pp. 68-88.
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Many countries in the Global South would like a more advantageous position in the international order. Sarang Shidore, director of Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft’s Global South Program, discusses why these countries are dissatisfied, what changes they would like to see, and how Washington can respond. He also discusses China strategy in light of the Global South and the role of BRICS and the seemingly tepid response from the Global South in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Show Notes
- Sarang Shidore bio
- Sarang Shidore, “American Power Just Took a Big Hit,” New York Times, September 1, 2023.
- Sarang Shidore, “The Return of the Global South,” Foreign Affairs, August 31, 2023.
- Sarang Shidore, “The Global South’s BRICS Play Should Not Be Dismissed,” The Nation, August 17, 2023.
- Sarang Shidore, “The G20 Is in a Precarious State, but Global Problems Don’t Take a Breather,” The Diplomat, September 8, 2023.
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Texas A&M associate professor John Schuessler discusses the different ideological pathways to a grand strategy of restraint. He examines realist, conservative, and progressive restrainers and speculates that the rise of great power competition will be a stress test for the survival of this coalition on foreign policy. He also discusses the foreign policy changes in the GOP and restraint differences over China policy, among other topics.
Show Notes
- John Schuessler bio
- John Shuessler and Jasen Castillo, “Building Foreign Militaries and Learning the Right Lessons from Afghanistan,” Newsweek, August 17, 2021.
- John Schuessler, Joshua Shifrinson, and David Blagden, “Revisiting Insularity and Expansion: A Theory Note” Perspectives on Politics, November 12, 2021.
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“Tripwire” forces are deployed overseas to bolster the credibility of America’s threats and promises. New research shows this key feature of U.S. foreign policy is misguided. Professors Paul Musgrave of University of Massachusetts Amherst and Steven Ward of University of Cambridge explain the logic of tripwires as a deterrent and showcase public opinion surveys that undermine that logic.
Show Notes
- Paul Musgrave bio
- Steven Ward bio
- Paul Musgrave and Steven Ward, “The Tripwire Effect: Experimental Evidence Regarding U.S. Public Opinion,” Foreign Policy Analysis 19, no. 4 (October 2023).
- Paul Musgrave and Steven War, “Testing Tripwire Theories Using Survey Experiments,” working paper, American Political Science Association, 2021.
- Doug Bandow, Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World(Washington DC: Cato Institute, 1996).
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The United States sells arms to almost any country willing to pay for them, but many recipients are risky, unstable, undemocratic, and liable to misuse the weapons. Cato defense and foreign policy studies policy analyst Jordan Cohen explains why the U.S. government sells arms to risky countries, why it doesn't give the U.S. strategic leverage, the costs and consequences of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, the problem of cluster munitions, U.S. support for the Nigerian military (which recently executed a coup d'état), and how to reform U.S. arms sales policies.
Show Notes
- Jordan Cohen bio
- Jordan Cohen and A. Trevor Thrall, “2022 Arms Sales Risk Index,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 953, July 18, 2023.
- Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “When our Weapons Go Missing,” Reason, July 31, 2023.
- Barry R. Posen, “Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory,” Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2023.
- Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Cluster Munitions May Win a Battle but not Ukraine’s War,” Inkstick Media, July 13, 2023.
- Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Did the Pentagon Just Make a $3 Billion Accounting Error – or Did It Do Something Even Worse?” Reason, May 19, 2023.
- Jordan Cohen, “Coups Are Just An Arms (Sale) Length Away: US Weapons Equip Niger’s Military,” Cato at Liberty, August 3, 2023.
- Jordan Cohen, “Deal or No Deal: Explaining Congressional Restrictions on Arms Transfers,” PhD diss (George Mason University, 2023).
- Jon Hoffman, Jordan Cohen, and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Biden Steamrolls toward Disaster in the Middle East,” The Hill, August 2, 2023.
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Michael C. Desch, professor of international relations at University of Notre Dame, discusses the disconnect between political science scholarship and policymaking and offers solutions for how to bridge the gap.
Show Notes
- Michael C. Desch bio
- Michael C. Desch, Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019).
- Paul C. Avey, Michael C. Desch, Eric Parajon, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, and Michael J. Tierney, “Does Social Science Inform Foreign Policy? Evidence from a Survey of US National Security, Trade, and Development Officials,” International Studies Quarterly 66, no. 1 (March 2022).
- Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan, “Why Washington Doesn’t Debate Grand Strategy,” Strategic Studies Quarterly 10, no. 4 (Winter 2016): pp. 14-45.
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Sameer Lalwani, Senior Expert at the United States Institute for Peace, discusses India's place in global politics, the advantages and drawbacks of deepening U.S.-India relations, India's illiberal turn, Indian relations with Russia, Pakistan, and China, and related topics. He also discusses more restrained alternatives to U.S. naval strategy.
Show Notes
- Sameer Lalwani bio
- Sameer Lalwani and Joshua Shifrinson, “Whither Command of the Commons? Choosing Security over Control,” MIT Political Science Department Research Paper No. 2013-15 (April 1, 2013).
- Sameer Lalwani and Vikram J. Singh, “A Big Step Forward in U.S.-India Defense Ties,” The Hindustan (New Delhi), April 6, 2023.
- Sameer Lalwani et al., “What to Watch in 2023: India’s Pivotal Year on the Global Stage,” United States Institute of Peace, February 8, 2023.
- Sameer Lalwani and Happymon Jacobs, “Will India Ditch Russia?” Foreign Affairs, January 24, 2023.
- Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne, “Great Expectations: Asking Too Much of the US-India Strategic Partnership,” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 3 (2019): pp. 41-64.
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CNAS adjunct senior fellow Elsa B. Kania breaks down the military and political implications of artificial intelligence. She discusses the scope of military applications, battlefield "singularity" and the speed of decision-making, human vs autonomous weapons systems, AI competition with China, public-private partnerships, governance of AI, and how AI should affect strategy, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Elsa B. Kania bio
- Elsa B. Kania and Lorand Lasaki, “A Sharper Approach to China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy Begins by Dispelling Myths,” Defense One, February 4, 2021.
- Elsa B. Kania and Joe McReynolds, “The Biden Administration Should Review and Rebuild the Trump Administration’s China Initiative From the Ground Up,” Lawfare, February 22, 2021.
- Elsa B. Kania and Lorand Lasaki, “Myths and Realities of China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy,” Center for a New American Security, January 28, 2021.
- Elsa B. Kania and John Costello, “Quantum Hegemony? China’s Ambitions and the Challenge to U.S. Innovation Leadership,” Center for a New American Security, September 12, 2018.
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Show Description
Christopher Layne, distinguished professor at Texas A&M University, provides historical context around the Russian invasion of Ukraine and questions direct U.S. intervention on Ukraine's behalf. He discusses the U.S. strategy in Europe following WWII and following the end of the Cold War, NATO expansion, tensions in U.S.-Russian nuclear policies, Russian perspectives and motivations, potential resolutions to the conflict, and what could exacerbate the war.
Show Notes
- Christopher Layne bio
- Christopher Layne, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to Present(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007).
- Benjamin Schwarz and Christopher Layne, “Why Are We in Ukraine?” Harper’s Magazine (June 2023).
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Quincy Institute director of East Asia, Michael D. Swaine explains how to manage the rise in China's power and influence through a restrained grand strategy, rather than through confrontation and primacy. He discusses Chinese diplomacy on the global stage, the problem with Washington's current strategy to contain and confront Beijing, how to alleviate the security dilemma, managing US alliances and altering US force posture in East Asia, and handling the problem of Taiwan, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Michael D. Swaine bio
- Michael D. Swaine and Andrew Bacevich, “A Restraint Approach to U.S.-China Relations: Reversing the Slide Toward Crisis and Conflict,” Quincy Institute paper no. 11, April 18, 2023.
- Michael D. Swaine, “The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy,” The National Interest, February 27, 2023.
- Michael D. Swaine, “What the U.S. Gets Wrong About Taiwan and Deterrence,” The Diplomat, January 23, 2023.
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Notre Dame associate professor Eugene Gholz discusses U.S. strategy, the low costs of neutrality in war, global oil markets and why the U.S. does too much militarily in the Middle East. He also advises a “defensive defense” strategy in East Asia, the ineffectiveness and overuse of economic sanctions, and decoupling from China.
Show Notes
- Eugene Gholz bio
- Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “The Effects of Wars on Neutral Countries: Why it Doesn't Pay to Preserve the Peace,” Security Studies 10, no. 4 (2001): pp. 1-57.
- Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest,” Security Studies 19, no. 3 (2010): pp. 453-485.
- Eugene Gholz, “Nothing Much to Do: Why America Can Bring All Troops Home From the Middle East,” Quincy Paper No. 7, June 24, 2021.
- Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, “Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 4 (2019): pp. 171-189.
- Eugene Gholz and Llewelyn Hughes, “Market Structure and Economic Sanctions: The 2010 Rare Earth Elements Episode as a Pathway Case of Market Adjustment,” Review of International Political Economy 28, no. 3 (2021): pp. 611-634.
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King’s College professor Richard Ned Lebow discusses his vast body of work on international politics. He talks about his cultural theory of international politics, Thucydides, realism, deterrence, Russia and the causes of the Ukraine war, and hegemonic stability theory, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Richard Ned Lebow bio
- Richard Ned Lebow, The Quest For Knowledge in International Relations (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2022).
- Richard Ned Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
- Richard Ned Lebow, Why Nations Fight: Past and Future Motives for War (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2010).
- Richard Ned Lebow, Avoiding War, Making Peace (Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).
- Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989).
- Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2981).
- Simon Reich and Richard Ned Lebow, Good-Bye Hegemony! Power and Influence in the Global System (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014).
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Japan has realized that they need to take more responsibility for their security in response to China’s rise, but there remain disagreements among U.S. allies about how to confront China. Dartmouth College professor Jennifer Lind discusses the threat environment in East Asia, Japan’s military spending and relations with its neighbors, and how collective narratives about historical baggage between countries can shape policy.
Show Notes
- Jennifer Lind bio
- Elbridge Colby and Jennifer Lind, “Japan Must Disavow Pacifism and Embrace Collective Defense,” Nikkei Asia, June 18, 2021.
- Jennifer Lind, “Japan Steps Up,” Foreign Affairs, December 23, 2022.
- Jennifer Lind, “With U.S. Help, Japan’s Position towards China Hardens,” Financial Times, April 21, 2021.
- Jennifer Lind, “Narratives and International Reconciliation,” Journal of Global Security Studies 5, no. 2 (2020): pp. 229-247.
- Jennifer Lind, Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2010).
- Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “Reality Check,” Foreign Affairs 99, no. 2 (March/April 2020).
- Jennifer Lind, “Great Power Drives Great-Power Narratives,” Asia Policy 16, no. 3 (July 2021): pp. 142-147.
- Jennifer Lind and Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki, “Is Japan Back? Measuring Nationalism and Military Assertiveness in Asia’s Other Great Power,” Journal of East Asian Studies 21 (2021): pp. 367-401.
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Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, explains how China's impartial approach to diplomacy gives it an edge against America's more Manichean tendencies. He also discusses what US troops are doing in the unauthorized war in Syria, Beijing's diplomatic mediation of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran -- and potentially between Ukraine and Russia, and what accounts for the slow pace of change in America's posture in the Middle East, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Trita Parsi bio
- Trita Parsi and Kalid Aljabri, “How China Became a Peacemaker in the Middle East,” Foreign Affairs, March 15, 2023.
- Trita Parsi, “The U.S. Is Not an Indispensable Peacemaker,” New York Times, March 22, 2023.
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What can we learn from the great empires of history? Tulane professor and Cato adjunct scholar Christopher Fettweis is the author of The Pursuit of Dominance: 2000 Years of Superpower Grand Strategy. He discusses grand strategy, balancing means and ends, the wisdom of restraint, the temptation to overextend, and other lessons to draw from the history of empires.
Show Notes
- Christopher Fettweis bio
- Christopher J. Fettweis, The Pursuit of Dominance: 2000 Years of Superpower Grand Strategy(New York: Oxford University Press, 20222).
- Christopher J. Fettweis, “Restraining Rome: Lessons in Grand Strategy from Emperor Hadrian,” Survival 60, no. 4 (August-September 2018): pp. 123-150.
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Over time, U.S. foreign policy has become increasingly activist, interventionist, and hostile despite facing fewer direct national security threats. These military interventions have also gradually become less connected to the national interest. Tufts University professor Monica Toft and Bridgewater State University assistant professor Sidita Kushi explain their quantitative research on US interventionism and explore alternative strategies.
Show Notes
- Monica Toft bio
- Sidita Kushi bio
- Monic Duffy Toft and Sidita Kushi, Dying by the Sword: The Militarization of US Foreign Policy(New York City: Oxford University Press, 2023). Forthcoming.
- Sidita Kushi and Monica Duffy Toft, “Introducing the Military Intervention Project: A New Dataset on US Military Interventions, 1776–2019,” Journal of Conflict Resolution (2022).
- Monica Duffy Toft and Sidita Kushi, “The Roots of Washington’s Addiction to Military Force,” Foreign Affairs, January 10, 2023.
- Monica Duffy Toft, “Getting Religion Right in Civil Wars,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 65, no. 9 (2021): pp. 1607-1634.
- Sidita Kushi, “Selective Humanitarians: How Region and Conflict Perception Drive Military Interventions in Intrastate Crises,” International Relations (2022).
- Sidita Kushi, “Regional Bias Too Obvious in Western Response to Humanitarian Atrocities,” EURACTIV, September 27, 2022.
- Monica Duffy Toft, “America’s Modern Addiction to the Big Stick,” Responsible Statecraft, June 21, 2022.
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The United States has sent a vast amount of aid to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s invasion. Defense Priorities’ Rajan Menon and Daniel DePetris explain that while the war is likely to end in a negotiated agreement, neither side is motivated to negotiate right now. They also discuss the need for European defense autonomy.
Show Notes
- Rajan Menon bio
- Daniel DePetris bio
- Rajan Menon and Daniel DePetris, “Europe Doesn’t Need the United States Anymore,” Foreign Policy, January 30, 2023.
- Lessons from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Symposium at Defense Priorities
- Rajan Menon and Daniel DePetris, “We Can’t Keep Treating Talk of Negotiations to End the Ukraine War as Off Limits,” The Guardian, November 3, 2022.
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Michelle Murray, associate professor at Bard College, explains how states aspire to major power identity and status, how the struggle for recognition in world politics produces conflict, and the social dimensions of the security dilemma. She also discusses the history of US and German naval expansion in the 19th century, realism and constructivism, and how to avoid war with a rising China, among other topics.
Show Notes
- Michelle Murray bio
- Michelle Murray, The Struggle for Recognition in International Relations: Status, Revisionism, and Rising Powers (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019).
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Ahsan Butt, associate professor at George Mason University, discusses the problems in Pakistani politics and government, the changes in U.S.-Pakistani relations since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban, India, and China. He also explains his theory of why the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003.
- Ahsan Butt bio
- Paul Staniland, Adnan Naseemullah, and Ahsan Butt, “Pakistan’s Military Elite,” Journal of Security Studies 43, no. 1 (2018): pp. 74-103.
- Ahsan Butt, “Clash of the Titans: India and Pakistan Continue to Battle Over Kashmir,” The National Interest, August 24, 2020.
- Ahsan Butt, “Why Did the United States Invade Iraq in 2003?” Security Studies 28, no. 2 (2019): pp. 250-285.
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Stephen Wertheim and Matt Duss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analyze President Joe Biden’s foreign policy performance two years into his administration. They discuss US policies on Ukraine, Russia, on the use of economic sanctions, the war in Yemen, the stalled Iran deal, the politics of progressive foreign policy, and more.
Show Notes
- Stephen Wertheim bio
- Matthew Duss bio
- Matthew Duss and Stephen Wertheim, “A Better Biden Doctrine,” The New Republic, January 4, 2023.
- Stephen Wertheim, “World War III Begins with Forgetting,” The New York Times, December 2, 2022.
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Does international law actually impose real constraints on states? Michael Poznansky, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, discusses why states choose to pursue overt vs. covert action, the role of plausible deniability, and the “hypocrisy costs” associated frequent violations of the non-intervention principle.
Show Notes
- Michael Poznansky bio
- Michael Poznansky (2021), "The Psychology of Overt and Covert Intervention," Security Studies 30, no. 3 (2021): pp. 325–353.
- Michael Poznansky, In the Shadow of International Law: Secrecy and Regime Change in the Postwar World (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020).
- Michael Poznansky, “The Appeal of Covert Action: Psychology and the Future of Irregular Warfare,” Modern War Institute, September 6, 2021.
- Michael Poznansky, "Revisiting Plausible Deniability," Journal of Strategic Studies 45, no. 4 (2022): pp. 511-533.
- Martha Finnemore, “Legitimacy, Hypocrisy, and the Social Structure of Unipolarity: Why Being a Unipole Isn’t All It’s Cracked Up to Be,” World Politics 61, no. 1 (January 2009): pp. 58-85.
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A common argument against U.S. troop withdrawals points to the risk of creating strategic vacuums that rival powers could then fill to great advantage. Benjamin H. Friedman, director of policy at Defense Priorities, explains why such fears are without merit. He discusses, among many topics, the value of territory in contemporary international politics, how power generates paranoia, and whether the U.S. should reduce its force posture abroad.
Show Notes:
- Benjamin H. Friedman bio
- Benjamin H. Friedman, “Don’t Fear Vacuums: We Can Go Home,” Defense Priorities Report, December 7, 2022.
- Benjamin H. Friedman, “No, Afghanistan Did Not Hurt U.S. ‘Credibility’,” UnHerd, August 31, 2022.
- Benjamin H. Friedman, “Bad Idea: Assuming Trade Depends on the Navy,” Defense360, January 7, 2022.
- Jennifer Keister, “The Illusion of Chaos: Why Ungoverned Spaces Aren’t Ungoverned, and Why That Matters,” Cato Policy Analysis no. 766, December 9, 2014.
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Pusan National University professor Robert E. Kelly looks back at Trump era policies toward North Korea, discusses what a deal with Pyongyang might entail, the impact of South Korean politics, and whether changes in US posture can alter the persistent status quo on the peninsula.
Show Notes
- Robert E. Kelly bio
- Robert E. Kelly, “The Persistent Status Quo with North Korea: Why Has so Little Changed since 2017?,” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 31, no. 3 (2019).
- Robert E. Kelly and Paul Poast, “The Allies Are Alright: Why America Can Get Away with Bullying Its Friends,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 2 (March/April 2022).
- Robert E. Kelly, “In Defense of North Korean Sanctions,” Korea Observer 53, no. 2 (Summer 2022).
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Jasen Castillo, associate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University, discusses the role of nuclear weapons and deterrence in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Show Notes:
- Jasen Castillo bio
- Jasen Castillo, “The Nuclear Risks in Russia’s War with Ukraine Are Real,” Chicago Tribune, October 31, 2022.
- Jasen Castillo, “The Cold Comfort of Mutually Assured Destruction,” War on the Rocks, June 16, 2021.
- Luke Henkhaus, “What Does Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Mean for the Wider War?” Texas A&M Today, September 20, 2022
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Brian Finucane, senior adviser at International Crisis Group, and Brianna Rosen, Senior Fellow at Just Security, discuss how the Global War on Terror is still ongoing and has allowed the executive branch to usurp war making authority from Congress, with disastrous and illiberal results.
Show Notes
- Brianna Rosen bio
- Brian Finucane bio
- “Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror,” Crisis Group Report No. 5, September 17, 2021.
- Brian Finucane, “Still at War: The United States in the Sahel,” Just Security, April 7, 2022.
- Brian Finucane, “Assessing Biden’s New Policy Framework for Counterterrorism Direct Action,” Just Security, October 11, 2022.
- Brianna Rosen, “Ending Perpetual War,” Just Security, October 25, 2022.
- Tess Bridgeman and Brianna Rosen, “Introduction to Symposium: Still at War – Where and Why the United States is Fighting the ‘War on Terror,’” Just Security, March 24, 2022.
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Stephen M. Walt, Harvard University professor of international affairs, discusses the prospects for a negotiated ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, the risk of nuclear escalation, and the potential for a prolonged stalemate. He also proposes a new future for NATO as well as suggestions for how to stabilize great power rivalry on both the economic and military fronts, particularly with China.
Show Notes
- Stephen Walt bio
- Stephen M. Walt, “Russia’s Defeat Would Be America’s Problem,” Foreign Policy, September 27, 2022.
- Stephen M. Walt, “Which NATO Do We Need?” Foreign Policy, September 14, 2022.
- Stephen M. Walt, “Why Wars Are Easy to Start and Hard to End,” Foreign Policy, August 29, 2022.
- Dani Rodrik and Stephen M. Walt, “How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).
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Stimson Center senior fellow Emma Ashford and University of Birmingham professor and Cato adjunct scholar Patrick Porter discuss the intensification of the war in Ukraine, Putin's nuclear threats, realist perspectives on Russian objectives, and possible US policy responses.
- Emma Ashford bio
- Patrick Porter bio
- Emma Ashford, “In Praise of Lesser Evils,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).
- Justin Logan, Benjamin H. Friedman, and Patrick Porter, “We’re Not All Ukrainians Now,” Politico Europe, May 17, 2022.
- Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “How Should the West Respond to Putin’s Military Mobilization?” Foreign Policy, September 23, 2022.
- Patrick Porter, “The Realist Boogeyman,” The Critic, June 15, 2022.
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The increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship is subject to various perverse incentives and negative feedback loops. Jessica Chen Weiss, Cornell University Professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies, discusses China’s rise and how to avoid a zero-sum and conflict-prone great power relationship.
Show Notes:
- Jessica Chen Weiss bio
- Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Perilous Logic of Zero-Sum Competition,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).
- Thomas Pepinsky and Jessica Chen Weiss, “The Clash of Systems? Washington Should Avoid Ideological Competition with Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2021.
- Alistair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations,” International Security 44, no. 2 (Fall 2019): pp. 9-60.
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The increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship is subject to various perverse incentives and negative feedback loops. Jessica Chen Weiss, Cornell University Professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies, discusses China’s rise and how to avoid a zero-sum and conflict-prone great power relationship.
Show Notes:
- Jessica Chen Weiss bio
- Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Perilous Logic of Zero-Sum Competition,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).
- Thomas Pepinsky and Jessica Chen Weiss, “The Clash of Systems? Washington Should Avoid Ideological Competition with Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2021.
- Alistair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations,” International Security 44, no. 2 (Fall 2019): pp. 9-60.
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When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, many cyber security analysts expected Russia to rely far more heavily on cyber tactics. Marine Corps University distinguished senior fellow Brandon Valeriano discusses the pitfalls of cyber security policy and research.
Show Notes:
- Brandon Valeriano bio
- Brandon Valeriano, “The Failure of Offense/Defense Balance in Cyber Security,” The Cyber Defense Review (Summer 2022).
- Brandon Valeriano, “Why Can’t Cyber Security Experts Move beyond the Basics?” The National Interest, August 7, 2022.
- Brandon Valeriano, “War Is Still War: Don’t Listen to the Cult of Cyber,” The National Interest, May 30, 2022.
- Erica D. Lonergan, Shawn D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen, “Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Didn’t Rely on Cyberwarfare. Here’s Why.” The Washington Post, March 7, 2022.
- Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,” Cato Policy Analysis No. 862, January 15, 2019.
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When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, many cyber security analysts expected Russia to rely far more heavily on cyber tactics. Marine Corps University distinguished senior fellow Brandon Valeriano discusses the pitfalls of cyber security policy and research.
Show Notes:
- Brandon Valeriano bio
- Brandon Valeriano, “The Failure of Offense/Defense Balance in Cyber Security,” The Cyber Defense Review (Summer 2022).
- Brandon Valeriano, “Why Can’t Cyber Security Experts Move beyond the Basics?” The National Interest, August 7, 2022.
- Brandon Valeriano, “War Is Still War: Don’t Listen to the Cult of Cyber,” The National Interest, May 30, 2022.
- Erica D. Lonergan, Shawn D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen, “Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Didn’t Rely on Cyberwarfare. Here’s Why.” The Washington Post, March 7, 2022.
- Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,” Cato Policy Analysis No. 862, January 15, 2019.
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Award winning journalist Peter Beinart discusses the messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan one year later and questions the wisdom of entering the war in the first place. He conjectures about why U.S. foreign policy does not seem to evolve much or reflect popular opinion as much as domestic policy.
Show Notes:
- Peter Beinart bio
- Peter Beinart, “Lessons from Afghanistan a Year Later,” The Beinart Newsletter, August 15, 2022.
- Stephen van Evera, “Why States Believe Foolish Ideas: Non-Self-Evaluation by States and Societies,” in Perspectives in Structural Realism, edited by Andrew K. Hanami (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002): pp. 163-198.
Defense Priorities fellow Bonnie Kristian discusses the Beijing’s reaction to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the risks of escalation in America’s Ukraine policy, continued U.S. presence in the Middle East, the overuse of national emergency declarations, and unchecked executive war powers.
Show Notes:
- Bonnie Kristian bio
- Bonnie Kristian, “Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Might Be Good for Her Legacy, but It’s Bad for Everyone Else,” Reason, August 2, 2022.
- Bonnie Kristian, “Don’t Let Russia’s Regime Change Plans Draw the U.S. Into War,” Reason, July 28, 2022.
- Bonnie Kristian, “Not Everything is a National Emergency,” Reason, July 19, 2022.
- Bonnie Kristian, “The Biden Administration is Taking Steps to Stay in Iraq Forever,” Defense One, February 22, 2021.
- Bonnie Kristian, “Trump’s Dangerous Expansion of Executive War Powers,” Politico, April 3, 2017.
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Author Robert Wright discusses the post-Cold War history of US policies, particularly in Europe, that increased the likelihood of today's ongoing war in Ukraine and the psychological factors influencing the climate of discourse in a time of war.
Show Notes
- Robert Wright bio
- Robert Wright, “Anti-War Think Tank Attacked,” Nonzero Newsletter, July 11, 2022.
- Robert Wright, “Earthling: Was Obama Right About Russia-Ukraine?” Nonzero Newsletter, July 15, 2022.
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Despite campaign promises to re-enter the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, also known as the JCPOA, President Joe Biden has yet to show the political will required to make progress. Quincy Institute co-founder and executive vice president Trita Parsi discusses why the Biden administration has been slow to act and what the consequences will be.
Show Notes
- Trita Parsi bio
- “On Iran, the Biden Presidency Has Been Trump’s Second Term: An Interview with Trita Parsi,” interviewed by Branko Marcetic, Jacobin, June 29, 2022.
- Trita Parsi, “In the Middle East, Biden Walks in Trump’s Footsteps and Will Repeat His Failure,” MSNBC.com, June 18, 2022.
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Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the current state of transatlantic relations, how they shifted during the Trump administration, the need for European defense autonomy, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, and why US foreign policy has a prioritization problem.
Show Notes
- Jeremy Shapiro bio
- Jeremy Shapiro, “Does America Need a Foreign Policy?” in New Voices in Grand Strategy, Michael J. Zak Lecture Series (Washington, DC: Center for New American Security, 2019).
- Majda Ruje and Jeremy Shapiro, “The Exaggerated Death of European Sovereignty,” European Council on Foreign Relations, April 27, 2022.
- Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro, “Don’t Mention the War in Ukraine: Germany’s Deteriorating Image in Washington,” European Council on Foreign Relations, February 15, 2022.
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Lyle Goldstein, Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities and visiting professor at Brown University, discusses strategies toward Russia and China in this so-called era of great power competition, with a focus on the territorial disputes each rival has with its neighbors.
- Lyle Goldstein bio
- Lyle Goldstein, “Raising the Minimum: Explaining China’s Nuclear Buildup,” Defense Priorities, April 22, 2022.
- Lyle Goldstein, “Russia’s Progress In Donbas Means Ukraine Likely Won’t Win The War,” 1945, May 10, 2022.
- Lyle Goldstein, “Joe Biden’s Taiwan Declaration is a Mistake,” Unheard, May 24, 2022.
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Georgia Tech associate professor Jon R. Lindsay discusses the role and ethics of AI in war, the risks and dangers in developing military and national security applications, and how AI applications will alter the nature of international conflict.
Notes:
- Jon R. Lindsay bio
- Jon R. Lindsay, Information Technology and Military Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2020).
- Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay, “Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War,” International Security 46, no. 3 (2022): pp. 7-50.
- Jon R. Lindsay, “Cyber Conflict vs. Cyber Command: Hidden Dangers in the American Military Solution to a Large-Scale Intelligence Problem,” Intelligence and National Security 36, no. 2 (2021): pp. 260-278.
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Joshua Landis, professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the civil war in Syria, the fragmentation of the country, the history of US interventions in the conflict, how America's strategy there works against itself, and how best to stabilize and potentially resolve what has become a protracted quagmire.
Notes
- Joshua Landis bio
- Steven Simon, Joshua Landis, and Aiman Mansour, “How to Win the Influence Contest in the Middle East,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 1 (February 3, 2021).
- Joshua Landis and Steven Simon, “The Pointless Cruelty of Trump’s New Syria Sanctions,” Foreign Affairs 99, no. 4 (August 17, 2020).
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Retired CIA officer Paul R. Pillar discusses the tensions between the intelligence community and policymakers, concerns over domestic abuses of the CIA and NSA, the continuing legacy of post-9/11 policy mistakes, the Russian war in Ukraine, the Biden administration's diplomacy with Iran, and how hyper-partisanship undermines national security policy.
Show Notes:
- Paul R. Pillar bio
- Paul R. Pillar, “The Role of the Villain: Iran and U.S. Foreign Policy,” Political Science Quarterly 128, no. 2 (Summer 2013): pp. 211-231.
- Paul R. Pillar, Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, 9/11. And Misguided Reform (New York City: Columbia University Press, 2014).
- Paul R. Pillar, “Guantanamo Bay Remains a Moral Stain on America,” The National Interest, April 18, 2022.
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Tulane University associate professor and Cato adjunct scholar Christopher Fettweis discusses political psychology on the international and domestic levels, explains how misperceptions drive conflict, and argues that "enemy images" can be subdued by greater exposure to adversaries and political opponents.
- Christopher Fettweis bio
- Christopher J. Fettweis, Psychology of a Superpower: Security and Dominance in U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018).
- Christopher J. Fettweis, “After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery,” Political Science Quarterly 136, no. 4 (September 23, 2021).
- Christopher J. Fettweis, “After Rome: Lessons in Grand Strategy from Emperor Hadrian,” Survival 60, no. 4 (July 16, 2018): pp. 123-150.
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The image of public harmony between elected officials and an entrenched national security bureaucracy collapsed in the Trump years, according to Tufts University professor Michael Glennon. Glennon discusses the massive transfer of power from the Madisonian institutions of government to a behemoth national security bureaucracy, the problems this poses for policymaking, and how our politics have become a fight over prevailing "myth systems."
Show Notes
- Michael Glennon bio
- Michael J. Glennon, “Populism, Elites, and National Security,” Humanitas 31, nos. 1 and 2 (2018): pp. 35-45.
- Michael J. Glennon, National Security and Double Government (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2014).
- Michael J. Glennon, Gene Healy, Jeremy Shapiro, and Justin Logan, “National Security and Double Government,” Cato Event, November 21, 2014.
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The war in Ukraine has prompted calls for armed neutrality as a resolution to the conflict. Audrey Kurth Cronin outlines the history of neutral states and why it is a promising solution in Ukraine.
Show Notes:
- Audrey Kurth Cronin bio
- Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Could Ukraine Become Neutral, Like Switzerland? Five Things to Know,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022.
- Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “The Great Realignment: Russia’s Invasion Leaves Few Sitting on the Fence,” The Hill, March 2, 2022.
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Atlantic Council senior fellow Emma Ashford discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played out so far, what the broader implications for international security and the global economy will be, and what comes after the conflict for the United States, Europe, Russia, and China.
- Emma Ashford bio
- Emma Ashford, “It’s Official: The Post-Cold War Era Is Over,”New York Times, February 24, 2022.
- Emma Ashford and Matthew Burrows, “Reality Check #4: Focus on Interests, not on Human Rights with Russia,” Atlantic Council, March 5, 2021.
- Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “Is Belarus Putin’s Next Target?”Foreign Policy, August 14, 2020.
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MIT professor Barry Posen joined the show to discuss the crisis in Ukraine, the origins of the conflict, what diplomatic approaches are available, and how US strategy is pushing China and Russia together.
- Barry R. Posen bio
- Barry Posen, “Unleashing the Rhetorical Dogs of War,”Just Security, February 15, 2022.
- Barry R. Posen, “A New Transatlantic Division of Labor Could Save Billions Every Year!”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 7, 2021.
- Barry R. Posen,Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014).
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Should the United States classify as much information as it does? Yale Law School professor Oona A. Hathaway explains how the U.S. government overclassifies information, why incentives generate more secrecy, the threat to democracy this system poses, and what to do about it.
- Oona Hathaway bio
- Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018).
- Oona A. Hathaway, “Keeping the Wrong Secrets: How Washington Misses the Real Security Threat,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 1 (January/February 2022).
- Oona A. Hathaway, “Secrecy’s End,” Minnesota Law Review 106 (2021): pp. 691-800.
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Richard Hanania argues that the existence of a consistent, top-down, overarching U.S. grand strategy is an illusion. Instead of a unitary actor adhering to a coherent strategy over time, the state is subject to a set of concentrated interests that have outsize influence on U.S. foreign policy.
Show Notes:
- Richard Hanania bio
- Richard Hanania, Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy (New York: Routledge, 2021).
- Richard Hanania, “’Just Trust the Experts,’ We’re Told, We Shouldn’t,” New York Times September 20, 2021.
- Richard Hanania, “Ineffective, Immoral, Politically Convenient: America’s Overreliance on Economic Sanctions and What to Do about It,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 884, February 18, 2020.
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Quincy Institute Senior Fellow Anatol Lieven discusses the origins of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's strategic perspective, the mistakes of NATO enlargement, and why the Biden administration has options to defuse tensions but is not pursuing them. Post-withdrawal Afghanistan policy and strategic competition with China are also covered.
- Anatol Lieven bio
- Anatol Lieven, “Russia Is Right on the Middle East,” Foreign Policy, November 30, 2021.
- Anatol Lieven, “Ukrainian Neutrality: A ‘Golden Bridge’ Out of the Current Geopolitical Trap,” Responsible Statecraft, January 3, 2022.
What do quantum mechanics have to do with international relations? Ohio State University professor Alexander Wendt lays out a theory of the physical world based on quantum effects and explains how it might inform our approach to social science, including international politics.
Show Notes
- Alexander Wendt bio
- Alexander Wendt, Quantum Mind and Social Science: Unifying Physical and Social Ontology, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2015).
- Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999)
- Alexander Wendt, “The Mind-Body Problem and Social Science: Motivating a Quantum Social Theory,” Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior 48, (2018): pp. 188-204.
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The desire for high status drives great powers’ foreign policies. Cambridge University professor Steven Ward discusses how status concerns motivate rising powers like China as well as declining powers like the United States, and how that can produce belligerent policies and exacerbate international tensions.
Show Notes
- Steven Ward bio
- Steven Ward,Status and the Challenge of Rising Powers, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2017).
- Steven Ward, “Status from Fighting? Reassessing the Relationship Between Conflict Involvement and Diplomatic Risk,” International Interactions 46, no. 2 (February 2020).
- Paul Musgraves and Steven Ward, “Testing Tripwire Theory Using Survey Experiments,” APSA Preprints, 2021.
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Despite the popular Cold War concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), the United States and Soviet Union engaged in risky, escalatory nuclear competition despite the costs and risks. University of Cincinnati associate professor and Cato adjunct scholar Brendan Rittenhouse Green discusses what drove this competition and explains the role of nuclear arms today, with a focus on the future of U.S.-China nuclear relations.
Show Notes
- Brendan Green bio
- Brendan Rittenhouse Green, The Revolution that Failed: Nuclear Competition, Arms Control, and the Cold War, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2020).
- Brendan Rittenhouse Green and Austin Long, “The MAD Who Wasn’t There: Soviet Reactions to the Late Cold War Nuclear Balance,” Security Studies 26, no. 4 (July 7, 2017): pp. 606-641.
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Marquette University Associate Professor Risa Brooks discusses civil-military relations in the United States, the role of military leaders and institutions in the making of foreign policy, and what reforms are needed to re-exert civilian primacy over the armed forces. Brooks touches upon concerning episodes, from Obama's Afghanistan surge to Trump's explicit politicization of the military, to suggest the proper norms around civil-military relations have eroded in recent years.
Show Notes
- Risa Brooks bio
- Risa Brooks, James Golby, and Heidi Urben, “Crisis of Command: America’s Broken Civil-Military Relationship Imperils National Security,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 3, (May/June 2021).
- Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks, and Daniel Marer, Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations: The Military, Society, Politics, and Modern War (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020).
- Risa Brooks, “Paradoxes of Professionalism: Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States,” International Security 44, no. 4 (Spring 2020): 7-44.
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The U.S. military budget is larger than those of the next 11 highest spenders combined. William Hartung, Director of the Arms & Security Program at the Center for International Policy discusses what cuts would make military spending more efficient.
- William D. Hartung bio
- William D. Hartung, “Profits of War: Corporate Beneficiaries of the Post-9/11 Pentagon Spending Surge,” Watson Institute of Public and International Affairs, September 13, 2021.
- William D. Hartung, “Profiteers of Armageddon: Explaining the Money Behind the Pentagon’s Nuclear Weapon Build Up,” Inkstick Media, October 12, 2021.
Access to oil is so vital that powerful countries can take extraordinary measures to protect themselves from ever being vulnerable to oil coercion. Rosemary A. Kelanic, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Notre Dame University, discusses the recent history of great powers’ quest for oil security and what kind of future military postures the United States and China may take toward the Persian Gulf.
- Rosemary A. Kelanic bio
- Rosemary A. Kelanic, Black Gold and Blackmail: Oil and Great Power Politics, (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2020).
- Rosemary A. Kelanic, “Why Iran’s ‘Oil Weapon’ Isn’t That Scary,” The Washington Post, June 18, 2019.
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President Joe Biden claimed he would defend human rights around the world, but his track record paints a different picture, especially in the Middle East. Quincy Institute senior fellow Annelle Sheline discusses how U.S. policies in the region have protected oppressive leaders while undermining American interests.
Show Notes
- Annelle Sheline bio
- Annelle Sheline, “House Passes Measure Ending U.S. Support for Saudi War in Yemen,” Responsible Statecraft, September 23, 2021
- Annelle Sheline and Steven Simon, “Reset Overdue: Remaking U.S.-Saudi Relations,” Quincy Brief no. 6, October 2020
Stephen Wertheim is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. He discusses 20 years of failed post-9/11 national security policies, the strategy of global military dominance, and the ongoing the battle of ideas on the U.S. role in the world.
Show Notes:
- Stephen Wertheim bio
- Stephen Wertheim, “The Ever-Ready Answer for Failure in Afghanistan: More War,” The Washington Post,
- Stephen Wertheim, “Delusions of Dominance: Biden Can’t Restore American Primacy – And Shouldn’t Try,” Foreign Affairs, January 25, 2021.
U.S. Naval War College professor Peter Dombrowski argues that the most pressing problems Americans face are internal domestic challenges and non-military risks like pandemics and climate change. But national security policy devotes disproportionate time and resources to confronting inflated threats from external actors. He joins the show to discuss the problems with an overly militarized grand strategy that has failed to properly identify or prioritize threats.
Show Notes
- Peter Dombrowski bio
- Simon Reich and Peter Dombrowski, The End of Grand Strategy: U.S. Maritime Operations in the Twenty-First Century (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2018).
- Peter Dombrowski and Simon Reich, “Does Donald Trump Have a Grand Strategy?” International Affairs 93, no. 5, (September 2017): pp. 1013-1037.
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The chaos that accompanied the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan does not negate the wisdom of bringing the war to an end, despite protestations in Washington about U.S. credibility and the "sustainability" of endless war. Benjamin H. Friedman, policy director at Defense Priorities, weighs in.
Show Notes
- Benjamin H. Friedman bio
- Benjamin H. Friedman, “Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America’s Longest War,” Defense Priorities, August 2019.
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The now-popular "ending endless wars" slogan has generated more political rhetoric than real policy changes. David Sterman, senior policy analyst at New America, helps define the concept of "endless war" as a strategy based on unachievable objectives and offers practical policy solutions for a substantive shift away from the War on Terror.
Show Notes
- David Sterman bio
- David Sterman, “Defining Endless Wars: The First Step Towards Ending Them,” New America, January 26, 2021.
- Peter Bergen, David Sterman, and Melissa Salyk-Virk, “America’s Counterterrorism Wars: Tracking the United States’s Drone Strikes and Other Operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya,” New America, June 17, 2021.
Boston University’s Joshua Shifrinson weighs in on a new critique of the restraint school in U.S. foreign policy debates and explains why the strategy proposed by some liberal internationalists to confront a rising China - a strategy he terms "neo-primacy" - is bound to fail.
Show Notes
- Joshua Shifrinson bio
- Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, “Neo-Primacy and the Pitfalls of US Strategy Toward China” The Washington Quarterly 41, no. 4 (Winter 2019): pp. 65-83.
- Bruce W. Jettleson, “Be Wary of China Threat Inflation,” Foreign Policy, July 30, 2021.
- Daniel Deudney and G. John Ikenberry, “Misplaced Restraint: The Quincy Coalition Versus Liberal Internationalism,” Survival 63, no. 4 (2021): pp. 7-32.
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9/11 set the course for U.S. national security policy in the 21st century, often with counterproductive results. Cato Institute senior fellow Justin Logan explains how post-9/11 foreign policy went off the rails and thrust America into disastrous elective wars and wasteful spending sprees. The lack of accountability for those who carried out such failures bodes ill for the future.
- Justin Logan bio
- Justin Logan, “The Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East,” Defense Priorities, September 2020.
- Justin Logan, “Why Wait Five to 10 Years to Leave?” Responsible Statecraft, June 24, 2021.
- Jane K. Cramer and A. Trevor Thrall, Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? (London: Routledge, 2012).
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As the U.S. military withdraws from Afghanistan, the Biden administration is retaining some presence nearby. Tactics are shifting, but U.S. intervention looks far from over. Cato research fellow Sahar Khan discusses the debate over building bases in Pakistan and the role of U.S. security contractors in the so-called Forever War.
Show Notes
- Sahar Khan bio
- Sahar Khan, “Double Game: Why Pakistan Supports Militants and Resists U.S. Pressure to Stop,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 849, September 20, 2018.
- Imran Khan, “Imran Khan: Pakistan is Ready to be a Partner for Peace in Afghanistan, but We Will Not Host U.S. Bases,” Washington Post, June 21, 2021.
Many realists assume that national leaders are rational. But are they? University of Southern California professor Brian Rathbun draws on classical realism to argue that realpolitik is a demanding psychological standard that is less prevalent than often assumed. Constructive diplomacy obligates policymakers, therefore, to better account for both their own subjective biases and those of other states.
Show Notes
- Brian Rathbun bio
- Brian Rathbun, Reasoning of State: Realists, Romantics and Rationality in International Relations (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2019).
- Brian C. Rathbun, Diplomacy’s Value: Creating Security in 1920s Europe and the Contemporary Middle East (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014).
- Brian Rathbun, “The Reality of Realpolitik: What Bismarck Rationality Reveals about International Politics,” International Security 43, no. 1 (Summer 2018): 7-55.
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The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has erupted again, but the politics in both Israel and the United States on this longstanding issue appear to be undergoing change. Jeremy Pressman, a political scientist at the University of Connecticut and an expert on the conflict, explains the historical context of the recent outbreak in violence, argues the cycle of military force undermines the objectives of both sides, and discusses the current tensions in the U.S.-Israeli relationship.
Show Notes
- Jeremy Pressman bio
- Jeremy Pressman,The Sword is Not Enough: Arabs, Israelis, and the Limits of Military Force(Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 2020).
- Jeremy Pressman, “Visions in Collision: What Happened at Camp David and Taba?”Quarterly Journal: International Security28. no. 2, (Fall 2003): 5-43.
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One longstanding predicate of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East -- that America's military presence in the Persian Gulf region protects the free flow of oil -- is false. That is according to University of Pennsylvania professor Robert Vitalis, along with a growing academic literature scrutinizing the claim. Because of the global nature of the oil market, even infamous past disruptions, such as the so-called Arab oil embargo of 1973, have not had as significant an effect as commonly believed. This erroneous basis for U.S. strategy, Vitalis explains, also justifies a misguided emphasis on Washington's close relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, among other costly consequences.
- Robert Vitalis bio
- Robert Vitalis, Oilcraft: The Myths of Scarcity and Security That Haunt U.S. Energy Policy, (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2020).
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The renewed debate in Washington over U.S. foreign policy reflects changing attitudes in public opinion. George Mason University professor and Cato Senior Fellow A. Trevor Thrall discusses how generational differences are changing views on U.S. military activism and America's global role. Millennials and younger people generally support international engagement while rejecting excessive military intervention.
Show Notes
- A. Trevor Thrall bio
- A. Trevor Thrall and Erik Goepner, (2021), “The New Faces of Internationalism: How Generational Change Is Reshaping American Foreign Policy Attitudes,” Cato Working Paper, Cato Institute, Washington, DC.
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Jessica Trisko Darden joins John Glaser to discuss how U.S. foreign aid tends to support state violence and coercion. Economic and military aid often helps undemocratic regimes secure and sustain their power and carry out human rights abuses. Even aid conditioned on good behavior and respect for democratic norms is highly fungible and often misused in ways that contradict the stated intentions of U.S. policymakers. Dr. Darden discusses the three case studies she details in her book to draw those conclusions.
- Jessica Trisko Darden bio
- Jessica Trisko Darden,Aiding and Abetting: U.S. Foreign Assistance and State Violence, (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2020).
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What are China's international ambitions and how does Beijing seek to achieve them? Johns Hopkins professor Daniel S. Markey joins the show to discuss how the People’s Republic of China has pursued evolving strategies in discrete regions and to explore what strategic options are open to the United States in response.1. Daniel S. Markey bio 2. Daniel S. Markey, China's Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia, (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020).
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Dominic Tierney, associate professor at Swarthmore College, explains how the “negativity bias” affects international relations. Negativity bias causes threat inflation, leads policymakers to maintain failing policies out of loss aversion, and produces misconceptions that make conflict more likely. Biden administration policies towards Iran, Afghanistan, and China are discussed, among other issues.
Show Notes
- Dominic Tierney bio
- Dominic D.P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney, “Bad World: Negativity Bias in International Politics,” International Security 43, no. 3 (Winter 2018/19): 96-140.
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Former career diplomat Elizabeth Shackelford recounts how her experiences working for the State Department caused her to grow disillusioned with U.S. diplomatic policy. She emphasizes the advantages of adopting a more diplomatic rather than militarized foreign policy and offers policy prescriptions to help make that transition.
Show Notes
- Elizabeth Shackelford bio
- Elizabeth Shackelford, The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age, (New York City: Hachette Book Group, 2020).
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Why has international war become more uncommon and unpopular since World War II? Sure some states still meddle in others’ civil wars or launch cyber offensives, but overall the world is experiencing an unprecedented era of peace. Some international relations experts claim that U.S. adventurist foreign policy has held off international war. This week’s guest, Ohio State University political scientist and Cato’s own John Mueller, argues against that premise in his new book The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency. He says that after two world wars, most people have realized that there are better solutions to disagreements than international war.
Show Notes
- John Mueller bio:https://www.cato.org/people/john-mueller
- John Mueller, The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2021).
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Geopolitical changes in East Asia call for new ideas to inform much needed policy reforms. Jessica J. Lee from the Quincy Institute joins John Glaser to discuss how policymakers can approach a rising China, traditional East Asian allies, and a nuclear North Korea.
Show Notes
- Jessica J. Lee bio
- Michael D. Swain, Jessica J. Lee and Rachel Esplin Odell, “Toward an Inclusive & Balanced Order: A New U.S. Strategy in East Asia,” Quincy Institute Paper No. 5, January 2021.
What is the future of conservative foreign policy? The Republican Party is divided on many issues of national security as it searches for a new direction in the post-Trump age. The American Conservative senior editor Daniel Larison joins the show.
Show Notes
- Daniel Larison bio: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/author/daniel-larison/
- Daniel Larison, “Where Do Conservatives Go On Foreign Policy,” The American Conservative, December 16, 2020.
- John Glaser, “Was Trump a Realist or a Wrecking Ball?” Empire Has No Clothes, podcast audio, January 24, 2021.
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Is the United States on course for a new Cold War with China? Campbell Craig tells John Glaser that there may be a chance to cooperate and ease tensions with Beijing. They discuss how changes in the U.S. military budget, threat perception, nuclear posturing, alliances, and domestic politics can help the two superpowers avoid a potential standoff.
ShowNotes
- Campbell Craig bio:https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/people/view/542163-craig-campbell
- Campbell Craig and Fredrik Logevall, America’s Cold War: The Politics of Insecurity, (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009).
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Did Russia commit a cyber attack or cyber espionage? What is the difference and how does it affect the U.S. response and future of cybersecurity? Cato Institute’s own Brandon Valeriano and Atlantic Council’s Erica Borghard join host John Glaser to discuss the severity of the SolarWinds hack and its implications for the broader cybersecurity political landscape.
- Brandon Valeriano bio: https://www.cato.org/people/brandon-valeriano
Erica Borghard bio: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/erica-borghard/
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Sean Lawson and Brandon Valeriano, “The Russian ‘Cyber Peral Harbor’ That Wasn’t,” The American Conservative, December 18, 2020.Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano, and Mark Montgomery, “The Strategic Implications of SolarWinds,” Lawfare Blog, December 18, 2020.
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Erica D. Borghard, “The SolarWinds Compromise and the Strategic Challenge of Information and Communications Technology Supply Chain,” Council on Foreign Relations, December 22, 2020.
Erica Borghard and Jacquelyn Schneider, “Russia’s Hack Wasn’t Cyberwarfare. That Complicates US Strategy,” Wired, December 17, 2020.
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Peter Beinart and host John Glaser discuss the problems of "global leadership" in U.S. foreign policy, why Washington over-spends on the wrong threats, the implications of President-elect Biden's incoming national security team, and how America should approach an increasingly influential China.
1. Peter Beinart bio: https://www.gc.cuny.edu/Page-Elements/Academics-Research-Centers-Initiatives/Doctoral-Programs/Political-Science/Faculty-Bios/Peter-Beinart
- Peter Beinart, Biden Wants America to Leader the World. It Shouldn’t., New York Times, December 2, 2020.
3. Peter Beinart, How I Changed My Mind, The Beinart Notebook, December 7, 2020.
After four years of an unpredictable commander-in-chief, it’s time to think about the future of U.S. foreign policy. John and David Hendrickson discuss the Trump to Biden transition, the illiberal nature of the "liberal order," and the impact of domestic politics on foreign policy, among other issues.
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David C. Hendrickson bio: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/academics/dept/politicalscience/people/profile.html?person=hendrickson_david
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David C. Hendrickson, Republic in Peril: American Empire and the Liberal Tradition, (New York City: Oxford University Press, 2017).
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President Donald Trump has shown excitement about the newly created Space Force division of the military. Is it worth the hype? According to Robert Farley, there is still too much unknown to make that call.
1.Robert M. Farley bio: https://www.uky.edu/~rmfarl2/
- There is no link yet to his Cato paper referenced as it has yet to be published. It’s a PA titled: Space Force: Ahead of Its Time, or Dreadfully Premature?
Also mentioned:
Robert M. Farley and Davida H. Issacs, Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2020).
Robert M. Farley, Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (Louisville, KY: University of Kentucky Press, 2014).
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How will President-elect Biden change US foreign policy? John Glaser talks to Emma Ashford of the Atlantic Council about the transition from Trump to Biden, and from host Emma to host John.
- Emma Ashford Bio https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/emma-ashford/
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/joe-biden-just-won-the-presidency-what-does-that-mean-for-americas-role-in-the-world/
Power transitions are a hot topic in international relations! David Kang and Xinru Ma join Emma Ashford to discuss why we should look outside Europe for insight.
- David Kang Bio: https://dornsife.usc.edu/cf/faculty-and-staff/faculty.cfm?pid=1024445
- Xinru Ma Bio: https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/people/xinru-ma#:~:text=She%20uses%20game%20theoretical%20models,processing%20methods%20to%20large%2Dscale
- David Kang and Xinru Ma, “Power Transitions: Thucydides Didn’t Live in East Asia,” Washington Quarterly.
Is American influence declining? Emma Ashford talks to Ali Wyne and Gabby Tarini of the Rand Corporation about their new report on America in the world.
- Ali Wyne Bio: https://www.ducoexperts.com/users/ali-wyne
- Gabrielle Tarini Bio: https://www.rand.org/about/people/t/tarini_gabrielle.html
- James Dobbins, Gabrielle Tarini, and Ali Wyne, “The Lost Generation in American Foreign Policy,” RAND Corporation.
Emma Ashford talks with MIT’s Taylor Fravel about ongoing China-India tensions and what China wants from the world.
1. Taylor Fravel bio: https://polisci.mit.edu/people/m-taylor-fravel
2. Taylor Fravel, “Why are India and China Skirmishing at their Border?” Washington Post.
3. Taylor Fravel, “China’s Sovereignty Obsession,” Foreign Affairs.
Paul Staniland of the University of Chicago joins Emma Ashford to discuss current events in India, Pakistan, and South Asia.
Show Notes
- Paul Staniland bio: https://paulstaniland.com/
- Paul Staniland, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Political Violence in South Asia: The Triumph of the State?”
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Donald Trump has taken America’s relationship with Europe from bad to worse. Emma Ashford chats with Rachel Rizzo of the Truman Project about the prospects for transatlantic relations.
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Rachel Rizzo Bio.
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Tom McTague, "Remember the 90s, Don't Long for a Return," The Atlantic.
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Emma Ashford, "Biden Wants to Go Back to a Normal Foreign Policy. That's the Problem," The New York Times.
In a special crossover episode, Emma sits down with the hosts of the Pop & Locke podcast and members of the Cato Foreign Policy team to explore how pop culture interacts with nuclear weapons, and why we should stop worrying and learn to love the bomb.
- Pop and Locke Podcast: https://www.libertarianism.org/podcasts/pop-and-locke
- Eric Schlosser, The New Yorker, “Almost Everything in Dr. Strangelove was True.”
- Eric Gomez and Caroline Dorminey, “America’s Nuclear Crossroads”
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In the third of our series on the world after the coronavirus, we talk about great power politics and U.S.-China relations, with returning guest Joshua Shifrinson of Boston University.
1. Joshua Shifrinson Bio: https://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/profile/joshua-shifrinson/
2. Joshua Shifrinson, International Security, “Partnership or Predation? How Rising States Contend With Declining Great Powers.”
3. Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, Foreign Policy, “Is This The Beginning of a New Cold War with China?”
In the second of our series on the world after the coronavirus, we look at the impact on Pentagon spending. Will the coronavirus prompt us to reconsider the defense budget? Sen. Bernie Sanders, "Defund the Pentagon: The Liberal Case," Politico * Andrew Lautz and Jonathan Bydlak, "Defund the Pentagon: The Conservative Case," Politico * Eric Gomez, Lauren Sander, and Brandon Valeriano, "OCOMust Go," Defense One*
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Special episode! As Trevor Thrall prepares to depart the show, our hosts chat about the show’s run and how U.S. foreign policy has changed since we've been on the air.
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In the first of a three-part series, Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall explore what international relations might look like after coronavirus. Today’s guest is Dan Drezner, a professor at Tufts University, who joins them to talk about global economic relations.
- Daniel Drezner bio: https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/daniel-drezner
- Daniel Drezner, “There is No China Crisis,” Reason Magazine: https://reason.com/2020/04/25/there-is-no-china-crisis/
- Daniel Drezner, “The Most Counterintuitive Prediction About World Politics and the Coronavirus,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/30/most-counterintuitive-prediction-about-world-politics-covid-19/
- Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “Will Trump’s Decision To Cut WHO Funding Accomplish Anything?” Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/17/will-trumps-decision-to-cut-who-funding-accomplish-anything/
- Christopher Preble, “How Will Coronavirus Change US National Security Strategy?” Responsible Statecraft: https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/how-will-covid-19-change-us-national-security-strategy
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Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall chat with Peter Singer of New America about his new novel Burn In,and why fiction can be useful for our understanding of national security policy.
- Peter Singer bio, https://www.newamerica.org/our-people/peter-warren-singer/
- Burn In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution, https://www.burninbook.com/
- Surveillance Takes Wing: Privacy in the Age of Police Drones, Matthew Feeney, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/surveillance-takes-wing-privacy-age-police-drones
- How Drones are Changing Warfare, Cato Unbound, https://www.cato-unbound.org/issues/january-2012/how-drones-are-changing-warfare
Eric Gomez and Christopher Preble join Emma Ashford to discuss their new paper, “Building a Modern Military,” and how COVID-19 will change the U.S. military.
- Eric Gomez bio: https://www.cato.org/people/eric-gomez
- Christopher Preble bio: https://www.cato.org/people/christopher-preble
- Building a Modern Military: https://www.cato.org/publications/white-paper/building-modern-military-force-meets-geopolitical-realities#citation
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Mark Hannah of the Eurasia Group Foundation joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to talk about how the world views America and American-style democracy in the age of COVID-19.
- Mark Hannah bio: https://egfound.org/about/our-team
- Eurasia Group Foundation, Global Views of American Democracy (2020)
- Mark Hannah, “Stop Declaring War on a Virus,” War on the Rocks
Alice Hunt Friend of the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to talk about the increasingly strained relations between civilian and military leaders in the Trump administration.
- Alice Hunt Friend bio: https://www.csis.org/people/alice-hunt-friend
- This is What Was So Unusual About Making Capt. Bret Crozier Step Down: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/05/this-is-what-was-so-unusual-about-us-navy-making-captain-brett-crozier-step-down/
- The Military Can’t Save Us From Covid-19: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/14/military-cant-save-us-covid-19.html
Greg Koblentz of George Mason University joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to talk about the international security implications of the coronavirus pandemic. Greg Koblentz bio * Greg Koblentz and Mike Hunzeker, "National Security in the Age of Pandemics," Defense One, April 3, 2020 * Gregory Koblentz, "Biosecurity Reconsidered: Calibrating Biological Threats and Responses," International Security, vol. 34, no. 4, Spring 2010 * Velibor Jakovleski, "Governance, in Crisis: What COVID-19 Means for the Present and Future of Global Governance," TheGlobal.com*, April 8, 2020 * George Mason University: Biodefense Program, The Pandora Report
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Dan Nexon of Georgetown University joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to talk about his new book, Exit from Hegemony.
Show Notes:
- Dan Nexon
- Exit from Hegemony
- Dan Nexon, "What if COVID-19 Is Our First Case of Global (Non)cooperation in a Post-hegemonic World?"
- Power Problems: Great Power Competition, Part I | Power Problems: Great Power Competition, Part II
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Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall are joined by Brandon Valeriano to discuss the Cyberspace Solarium Commission’s official report. Brandon Valeriano bio * Cyberspace Solarium Commission * Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," Cato Institute Policy Analysis 862, January 15, 2019. * Brandon Valeriano, Benjamin Jensen, and Ryan C. Mannes, Cyber Strategy: The Evolving Character of Power and Coercion* (Oxford University Press, 2018)
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Emma Ashford and John Glaser are joined by political scientist Ellen Wald to discuss how global oil markets interact with U.S. foreign policy.
Show Notes
- Ellen Wald website
- Event: The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security
- Ellen Wald on Forbes.com
- Rosemary Kelanic and Charles Glaser, Crude Strategy: Rethinking the U.S. Military Commitment to the Persian Gulf
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Join Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford as we discuss public engagement in the Trump era with Paul Poast, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Paul Poast bio * Paul Poast, "Twitter Threads," * Tanisha M. Fazal and Paul Poast, "War Is Not Over: What the Optimists Get Wrong About Conflict." Foreign Affairs*, November/December 2019
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Join Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford as we discuss the failures and history of regime change with Ben Denison, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Benjamin Denison bio * Benjamin Denison, The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: The Failure of Regime-Change Operations," Policy Analysis 881 * Benjamin Denison, "Regime Change Rarely Succeeds. When will the U.S. learn?," Washington Post, January 9, 2020 * Christopher Preble, "Covert Wars, to What End?," War on the Rocks*, August 7, 2019
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Adam Mount, Senior Fellow and the Director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists, joins Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford to discuss the future of progressive foreign policy. Adam Mount bio * Adam Mount, “Principles for a Progressive Defense Policy, Texas National Security Review, December 2018 * Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall, “The Battle Inside the Political Parties for the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy,” War on the Rocks*, December 12, 2018 * Trevor Thrall and Jordan Cohen, “The Democrats’ Search for a New Foreign Policy,” Cato.org, January 16, 2020
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Dan Ikenson, director of Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, joins Trevor Thrall and guest host John Glaser to discuss the economic and foreign policy implications of Trump’s recent trade deals. Daniel J. Ikenson bio * Daniel J. Ikenson, “A Few Things to Like about the U.S.-China Trade Deal,” Cato at Liberty, December 16, 2019 * Daniel J. Ikenson, “Trump’s Alleged Trade Deal with China Would Fix Nothing,” Cato at Liberty, December 13, 2019 * Simon Lester and Inu Manak, “The USMCA Is Moving Forward (Too) Quickly,” Cato at Liberty*, December 16, 2019
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Michael Swaine, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Trevor Thrall and guest host John Glaser to discuss the crisis in Hong Kong, the plight of the Uighurs, and China’s recent authoritarian turn. Michael Swaine bio * Michael Swaine, “Chinese State‐Society Relations: Why Beijing Isn’t Trembling and Containment Won’t Work,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 14, 2019 * Austin Ramzy and Chris Buckley, ““Absolutely No Mercy”: Leaked Files Expose How China Organized Mass Detentions of Muslims,” New York Times, November 16, 2019 * Richard McGregor, “Party Man: Xi Jinping’s Quest to Dominate China,” Foreign Affairs*, September/October 2019
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Negar Mortazavi, diplomatic correspondent for The Independent, joins Trevor Thrall and guest host John Glaser to discuss the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran, recent Iranian protests, and the future of the JCPOA. Negar Mortazavi coverage at The Independent * Farnaz Fassihi and Rick Gladstone, “With Brutal Crackdown, Iran Is Convulsed by Worst Unrest in 40 Years,” New York Times, December 1, 2019 * Doug Bandow, “Trump Must Understand a War with Iran Would Be Hell,” The National Interest*, November 21, 2019
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Jim Goldgeier, former dean of the School of International Service at American University and resident scholar at the Brookings Institution, joins Trevor Thrall and guest host John Glaser to discuss President Trump’s use of irregular channels of foreign policy making in Ukraine. Jim Goldgeier Bio * Goldgeier and Saunders, “How much have Trump’s dealings with Ukraine deviated from the norm?” Washington Post * Mitchell Orenstein, “Welcome to the United States of Ukraine,” Foreign Policy*
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Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins Trevor Thrall and guest host John Glaser to discuss the launch of Washington D.C.’s newest foreign policy think tank. Quincy Institute website * Stephen Wertheim, “The Quincy Institute Opposes America’s Endless Wars. Why Should That Be a Scandal?,” Wahington Post, August 30, 2019 * David Klion, “Can a New Think Tank Put a Stop to Endless War?,” The Nation, July 29, 2019 * Curt Mills, “Realism Resurgent: The Rise of the Quincy Institute,” National Interest, July 1, 2019 * Kelley Vlahos, “The Quincy Institute Seeks Warmongering Monsters to Destroy,” The American Conservative*, July 30, 2019
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David Burbach from the U.S. Naval War College joins Trevor Thrall and guest host John Glaser to discuss civil‐military relations and public attitudes towards the military. David T. Burbach bio * David Burbach, “Gaining Trust While Losing Wars: Confidence in the U.S. Military after Iraq and Afghanistan,” Orbis, vol. 61, no. 1, 2019 * David Burbach, “Partisan Dimensions of Confidence in the U.S. Military, 1973–2016,” Armed Forces and Society, January 11, 2018 * Jim Golby and Peter Feaver, “Thank You for Your Lip Service? Social Pressure to Support the Troops,” War on the Rocks, August 14, 2019 * David Barno and Nora Bensehel, “Thank You for Your Lip Service? Social Pressure to Support the Troops,” War on the Rocks*, June 18, 2019
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Christopher Preble and John Glaser join Trevor Thrall to discuss their new book, Fuel to the Fire, which assesses Donald Trump’s foreign policies and makes the case for greater restraint in international affairs. Christopher A. Preble bio * John Glaser bio * Trevor Thrall bio * Christopher A. Preble, John Glaser, Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover) * Fuel to the Fire* promotional page
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Vipin Narang of the M.I.T. Department of Political Science joins Trevor Thrall and guest host Eric Gomez to discuss nuclear trends and the nuclear balance in Asia. Vipin Narang bio * Vipin Narang, “Why North Korea Is Testing Missiles Again,” Foreign Affairs, May 16, 2019 * Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations,” International Security, Winter 2018/19 * Caroline Dorminey and Eric Gomez, “America’s Nuclear Crossroads: A Forward‐Looking Anthology*,” June 2019
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Gregory Gause from the Bush School at Texas A&M joins Trevor Thrall and John Glaser to discuss U.S. policy and strategy in the Middle East in the wake of the missile strike on the Saudi oil facilities. F. Gregory Gause bio * F. Gregory Gause, “Should We Stay or Should We Go? The United States and the Middle East,” Survival, Fall 2019. * Gregory Gause, “Why the U.S. Should Stay Out of Saudi Politics,” Foreign Affairs, December 2018. * John Glaser and Emma Ashford, “Unforced Error: The Risks of Confrontation with Iran,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis , October 9, 2017. * Robin Wright, “Trump’s Close-Call Diplomacy with Iran’s President,” New Yorker*, September 28, 2019 * U.S. Institute of Peace, “Timeline: Tensions between Washington and Tehran,” May 8, 2019.
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Jonathan Caverley of the Naval War College joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to discuss the defense industry and the arms trade. * Jonathan Caverley bio * Jonathan Caverley, “Slowing the Proliferation of Major Conventional Weapons: The Virtues of an Uncompetitive Market,” Ethics & International Affairs, Vol. 31, No. 4, Winter 2017 * Jonathan Caverley, “America’s Arms Sales Policy: Security Abroad, Not Jobs at Home,” War on the Rocks, April 6, 2018 * Security Assistance Monitor * SIPRI Arms Transfers Database * A. Trevor Thrall and Caroline Dorminey, “Risky Business: The Role of Arms Sales in U.S. Foreign Policy,” Policy Analysis, No. 836, March 13, 2018 * Ray Rounds, “The Case against Embargos, Even for Saudi Arabia,” War on the Rocks, April 16, 2019
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Hilde Restad, a professor of International Relations at Bjorknes College in Oslo, Norway, joins us to discuss Trump’s foreign policy, nationalism, and the view from Europe. Hilde Restad bio * Hilde Restad, American Exceptionalism: An Idea that Made a Nation and Remade the World * Cato Unbound*, “The Clash of Civilizations?,” February 2017
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Matthew Goodman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to discuss Trump’s trade war with China. Matthew P. Goodman bio * Matthew P. Goodman and Ely Ratner, “A Better Way to Challenge China on Trade: Trump’s Harmful Tariffs Aren’t the Answer,” Foreign Affairs, March 22, 2018 * Eswar Prasad, “Which country is better equipped to win a U.S.-China trade war?” Washington Post*, August 9, 2019.
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Monica Toft, Professor at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, joins us to discuss the growth in U.S. military interventions and the decline of diplomacy. Monica Toft bio * Monica Toft, “The Dangerous Rise of Kinetic Diplomacy,” War on the Rocks*, May 14, 2018 * The Military Intervention Project
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In our special live episode of Power Problems, Emma Ashford chats with Heather Hurlburt of New America about ongoing debates on the future of U.S. grand strategy. Heather Hurlburt bio * Heather Hurlburt, “Making Sense of the Grand Strategy Debate,” Lawfare, June 7, 2019 * Emma Ashford, Hal Brands, Jasen Castillo, Kate Kizer, Rebecca Lissner, Jeremy Shapiro, and Joshua Shifrinson, “New Voices in Grand” * Daniel Drezner, Mira Rapp‐Hooper, Rebecca Lissner, Stephen Walt and Kori Schake, “Searching for a Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2019 * Ben Sasse, “The End of the End of History,” Texas National Security Review, February 2019 * Emma Ashford, “The Gentleman from Nebraska Misfires on Foreign Policy,” War on the Rocks, May 6, 2019 * Ganesh Sitaraman, “The Emergence of Progressive Foreign Policy,” War on the Rocks, April 15, 2019 * Colin Dueck, Elliot Abrams, Emma Ashford, John Fonte, Henry R. Nau, Nadia Schadlow, Kelley Vlahos, Dov Zakheim, “The Future of Conservative Foreign Policy,” Texas National Security Review, November 30, 2018 * Van Jackson, Heather Hurlburt, Adam Mount, Loren Schulman, Thomas Wright, “The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy,” Texas National Security Review*, December 4, 2018 * The John Quincy Adams Society
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In part two of the focus on America’s Nuclear Crossroads, Emma Ashford and guest host Eric Gomez delve into the future of arms control agreements with Maggie Tennis of the Brookings Institute. * Maggie Tennis bio * America’s Nuclear Crossroads
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Todd Harrison from the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to discuss the proposed Space Force, war in space, and his chapter in the forthcoming Cato report America’s Nuclear Crossroads.* Todd Harrison bio * America’s Nuclear Crossroads * Aerospace Security Project at CSIS, “Commanding Space: The Story Behind the Space Force * Todd Harrison, “A Space Force is Worth the Price”
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With new protests in Sudan, ongoing conflict in Syria, and continued regional tensions, the legacies of the Arab Spring are everywhere in the Middle East. Peter Mandaville joins us to discuss.* Peter Mandaville bio * Kamron Bohkari and Peter Mandaville, The Muslim Brotherhood and American Muslims, Center for Global Policy, August 11, 2018 * Peter Mandaville and Shadi Hamid, “Islam as Statecraft: How Governments Use Religion in Foreign Policy,” Brookings Institute, November 2018
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What kind of foreign policy do Americans want? Not the one they have, apparently. To learn more Emma and Trevor chat with Peter Juul from the Center for American Progress about a new report from the Center for American Progress, “America Adrift: How the U.S. Foreign Policy Debate Misses What Voters Really Want.” * Peter Juul bio * Center for American Progress, “America Adrift: How the U.S. Foreign Policy Debate Misses What Voters Really Want” * Eurasia Group Foundation, “Worlds Apart: U.S. Foreign Policy and American Public Opinion” * Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, “America Engaged: American Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy”
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American presidents often praise U.S. foreign policy as a force for global freedom and liberty. We chat with Chris Preble about his new book, Peace, War, and Liberty. * Christopher Preble bio * Christopher Preble, Peace, War, and Liberty: Understanding U.S. Foreign Policy * Free Thoughts/Power Problems Crossover: “What do Libertarians Believe About Foreign Policy?”
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Arguments about the Iraq War loom large over pretty much every foreign policy debate in Washington. Does the Trump administration have similar intentions towards Iran? Lawrence Wilkerson joins us to discuss. Lawrence Wilkerson bio * Lawrence Wilkerson, “I Helped Sell the False Choice of War Once. It’s Happening Again/a>,” New York Times, February 5, 2018 * Dexter Filkins, John Bolton on the Warpath, New Yorker*, May 6, 2019
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Women play an increasingly important role as insurgents and rebels in civil conflicts all over the world. But most often their story goes untold and their impact has been poorly understood. Jessica Trisko Darden, co‐author of Insurgent Women, joins Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall to discuss her new book to discuss. Jessica Trisko Darden bio * Jessica Trisko Darden, Alexis Henshaw, and Ora Szekely, Insurgent Women: Female Combatants in Civil Wars(Georgetown University Press 2019). * Jessica Trisko Darden, “https://theconversation.com/how-women-wage-war-a-short-history-of-is-brides-nazi-guards-and-farc-insurgents-113011 The Conversation, March 8, 2019. * Jessica Trisko Darden, “Return from ISIS: American Women Want Out of Extremism,” NPR On Point podcast. * Mia Bloom, Bombshell: Women and Terrorism(University of Pennsylvania, 2011). * Jessica Davis, Women in Modern Terrorism: From Liberation Wars to Global Jihad and the Islamic State* (Rowman & Littlefield, 2017).
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Pundits seem increasingly undecided whether we’re living in a new Cold War, or simply making a return to the 1930s. Ali Wyne of the RAND corporation joins us to discuss great power competition, the problem of foreign policy by analogy, and what the global order might look like in the future. Ali Wyne bio * Ali Wyne, America’s Blind Ambition Could Make It a Victim of Global Competition, National Interest*, February 11, 2019 * Ali Wyne, Questioning the Presumption of a U.S.-China Power Transition, RAND Corporation, January 9, 2019
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The cyber era has amplified the impact of non‐state actors on international relations. From election meddling to sabotage to espionage, states are using non‐state actors as proxies to do their dirty work. Tim Maurer from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace joins Trevor Thrall and John Glaser to talk about the rise, reach, and implications of these cyber mercenaries. Tim Maurer bio * Tim Maurer, Cyber Mercenaries: The State, Hackers, and Power* * Brandon Valentino and Benjamin Jensen, “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,” Policy Analysis 862, January 15, 2019.
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Donald Trump’s second summit with Kim Jong Un has come and gone, this time in abject failure. Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall are joined by Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest to discuss where U.S.-North Korean relations go from here. Harry Kazianis bio * "A Top Trump Official May Have Just Doomed US-North Korea Talks," Vox*, March 8, 2019 * "Dealing with North and South Korea: Can Washington Square the Circle?" Cato Institute Capitol Hill Briefing
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Controversy is growing over the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela, where the United States has backed opposition leader Juan Guaido in his attempt to remove President Nicolas Maduro from power. Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford are joined by Venezuela expert Moises Rendon to discuss the situation.
Show Notes:
- Guest Bio: Moises Rendond
- Moises Rendon, “Food vs. Freedom in Venezuela,” July 9, 2018
- Amanda Sakuma, “The Last 48 hours in Venezuela News, Explained,” Vox, February 24, 2019
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The Trump administration has emphasized the reemergence of great power competition as the organizing principle for U.S. foreign policy. How will international relations change in an era when new actors are challenging the status quo? In Part II of our great power special, Professor Stacie E. Goddard of Wellesley College joins Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford to talk about her recent book, When Might Makes Right, about the relationship between rising powers and existing great powers.
Show Notes:
- Guest Bio: Stacie Goddard
- Stacie Goddard, “When Right Makes Might: Rising Powers and World Order”
- Stacie Goddard, “Uncommon Ground: Indivisible Territory and the Politics of Legitimacy,” International Organizations, vol. 60, no. 1, January 2006
- Cato Policy Forum, “The Return of Great Power Competition.” January 15, 2019
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Great Power competition is back. How will international relations change in an era when new actors are challenging the status quo. In Part I of our great power special, Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford are joined by Joshua Shifrinson, author of Rising Titans, Falling Giants, a book on great power rise and decline. Joshua Shifrinson's bio * Joshua Shifrinson, Rising Titans, Falling Giants * "The Return of Great Power Competition" * David Edelstein, Over the Horizon * Stacie Goddard, When Might Makes Right * Paul MacDonald and Joseph Parent, Twilight of the Titans*
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From trade to immigration, the Trump administration takes a much broader view of national security than prior administrations. Cato Senior Policy Analyst Alex Nowrasteh joins Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford to talk about the links between immigration and national security.
Show Notes:
- Alex Nowrasteh’s bio
- Alex Nowrasteh, “Incarcerated Immigrants in 2016: Their Numbers, Demographics, and Countries of Origin,” Immigration Research and Policy Brief, June 4, 2018
- Alex Nowrasteh, “How Trump Is Really Changing Immigration: Making It Harder for People to Come Here Legally,” Los Angeles Times, May 13, 2018
- Alex Nowrasteh, “Terrorism and Immigration: A Risk Analysis,” Policy Analysis
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Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford are joined by Cato colleague Eric Gomez for a discussion of the year in review, and a preview of 2019. From nuclear weapons and North Korea to the U.S.-Saudi relationship, it’s been a wild year.
Show Notes:
- Eric Gomez’s bio
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Attorney and Cato Institute adjunct scholar Scott Lincicome joins Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford to discuss the Trump administration’s trade strategy and the role of international trade in U.S. foreign policy.* Scott Lincicome’s bio * Scott Lincicome, The “Protectionist Moment” That Wasn’t: American Views on Trade and Globalization, Free Trade Bulletin * Scott Lincicome, “Doomed to Repeat It: The Long History of America’s Protectionist Failures, Policy Analysis
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In a special crossover episode, Trevor and Emma sit down with the hosts of the Free Thoughts podcast for a wide‐ranging discussion of how libertarians view foreign policy. Free Thoughts Podcast * Emma Ashford, “Libertarianism, Restraint and the Bipartisan Future,” Texas National Security Review*, November 30, 2018
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In the second half of our election special, Trevor Thrall and Emma Ashford are joined by Jake Sullivan, a former senior advisor to Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, to discuss the future of foreign policy in the Democratic party. Jake Sullivan bio * Dan Nexon, “Toward A Neo‐Progressive Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs * Bernie Sanders, “Building a Global Democratic Movement to Counter Authoritarianism,” Speech at SAIS * Peter Beinart, “Shield of the Republic: A Democratic Foreign Policy for the Trump Age,” The Atlantic* * Please take our listener survey
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Bryan McGrath, Deputy Director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute, joins Trevor and Emma to discuss the evolution of conservative foreign policy during the Trump era. Please take a listener survey * Bryan McGrath bio * Henry Nau, Conservative Internationalism (Princeton University Press 2015) * Eliot Cohen, The Big Stick: The Limits of Soft Power and the Necessity of Military Force (Basic Books 2018) * Robert Kagan, The Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperiled World* (Knopf 2018)
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Elizabeth Rosenberg, a sanctions expert at the Center for a New American Security joins Trevor and Emma to discuss the Trump administration’s eclectic approach to sanctions policy, and the impact of looming Iran sanctions. Elizabeth Rosenberg bio * Elizabeth Rosenberg, The EU Can’t Avoid U.S. Sanctions on Iran, Foreign Affairs, October 10, 2018 * Jacob J. Lew and Richard Nephew, The Use and Misuse of Economic Statecraft, Foreign Affairs, October 15, 2018 * Emma Ashford, Not‐So‐Smart Sanctions, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2016 * Cato Unbound*, Do Economic Sanctions Work?, November 2014
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Bonus Episode! Harvard’s Steven Walt joins Emma Ashford and guest host Caroline Dorminey to discuss his new book, The Hell of Good Intentions, and why America’s foreign policy failures helped to elect Donald Trump. Stephen Walt bio * Stephen Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions * Cato Book Event, The Hell of Good Intentions * Stephen Walt, The Donald vs. The Blob, Foreign Policy, May 16, 2018 * Thrall and Friedman, U.S. Grand Strategy in the 21st Century — The Case for Restraint*
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As Emma Ashford returns to the podcast, she and Trevor Thrall join Cato colleague John Glaser to review the Trump administration’s take on U.S. foreign policy in 2018. David E. Sangar, “North Korea’s Trump‐era Strategy. Keep Making A‑Bombs, but Quietly,” New York Times, September 16, 2018 * Peter Harrell, “Is the US Using Sanctions Too Aggressively?,” Foreign Affairs, September 11, 2018 * Michael Hirsch, “John Bolton Is Living the Dream — for Now,” Foreign Policy, September 28, 2018 * Jordan Robertson and Michael Riley, “The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies,” Bloomberg Businessweek, October 4, 2018 * Michael Hirsch, “Surprise! Trump’s Disruptive Foreign Policy Could Be Working,” Politico*, October 2018
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Patrick Porter joins Sahar Khan and Trevor Thrall to discuss the debate over the past, present, and future of the liberal international order. Porter is a professor of international security and strategy at the University of Birmingham, UK and a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. He researches how power and ideas shape U.S. and U.K. defense and foreign policy, and how both shape conflicts both the United States and United Kingdom are involved in. Patrick Porter bio * Patrick Porter, “A World Imagined: Nostalgia and Liberal Order,” June 2018 * Patrick Porter, “Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not Changed: Power, Habit, and the U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment,” International Security, May 4, 2018. * “Liberal International Order: Past, Present, and Future,” Cato Event, September 20, 2018 * Bruce Jentleson, “The Post‐Liberal International Order World: Some Core Characteristics,” Lawfare Blog, September 9, 2018 * Michael J. Mazarr, “The Real History of the Liberal Order: Neither Myth Nor Accident,” Foreign Affairs, August 7, 2018 * Rebecca Friedman Lissner and Mira Rapp‐Hooper, “The Day After Trump: American Strategy for a New International Order,” The Washington Quarterly, June 2018 * Jake Sullivan, “The World After Trump: How the System Can Endure,” Foreign Affairs*, March/April 2018
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Vanda Felbab‐Brown is a senior fellow in the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is also the director of the Brookings project “Improving Global Drug Policy: Comparative Perspectives and UNGASS 2016” and co‐director of “Reconstituting Local Orders.” She is an expert on international and internal conflicts and nontraditional security threats, including insurgency, organized crime, urban violence, and illicit economies. Vanda Felbab‐Brown bio * The Extinction Market: Wildlife Trafficking and How to Counter It * World Wildlife Fund, “Illegal Wildlife Trade” * U.S. Agency for International Development, “Combating Wildlife Trafficking” * Jody Rosen, “Animal Traffic,” New York Times Style Magazine * Charlote Epstein, “The Power of Words in International Relations: Birth of an Anti‐Whaling Discourse*
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Barbara Slavin of the Atlantic Council joins Sahar Khan and Trevor Thrall to discuss developments in Iran and America’s Iran policy. * Barbara Slavin bio * Barbara Slavin, “US Policies Undercut ‘Support’ for ‘Iranian Voices’ ” * Barbara Slavin, “Renewed Sanctions Will Hurt Iran’s Economy But U.S. Benefits Uncertain” * Barbara Slavin, “Mullahs, Money, and Militias” * Emma Ashford and John Glaser, “Unforced Error: The Risks of Confrontation with Iran”
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C. Christine Fair is a Provost’s Distinguished Associate Professor in the Peace and Security Studies Program within Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. She joins Sahar Khan and Trevor Thrall to discuss the ongoing Rohingya crisis in Myanmar and its implication on the Trump administration’s policy toward South Asia. C. Christine Fair’s bio * International Crisis Group, “The Long Haul ahead for Myanmar’s Rohingya Refugee Crisis,” May 16, 2018 * Council on Foreign Affairs, “The Rohingya Crisis,” Backgrounder, April 20, 2018 * Krishnadev Calamur, “The Misunderstood Roots of Burma’s Rohingya Crisis,” The Atlantic*, September 25, 2017 * Sahar Khan, “Ethnic Cleansing vs. Genocide,” Cato @ Liberty, November 29, 2017
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U.S. counterterrorism has been a mixture of unilateral policies and multilateral partnerships. Stephen Tankel of American University joins us today to discuss the trajectory of U.S. counterterrorism strategy under the Trump administration. Stephen Tankel’s bio * John Glaser’s bio * Stephen Tankel, With Us and Against Us: How America’s Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror * Stephen Tankel, “https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/11/fighting-terrorism-takes-a-global-effort-how-have-3-u-s-presidents-fared-16-years-after-911/?utm_term=.3964cbb11a04,” Monkey Cage, September 11, 2017 * Joshua A. Geltzer and Stephen Tankel, “Whatever Happened to Trump’s Counterterrorism Strategy,” The Atlantic, March 1, 2018 * Stephen Tankel, “Donald Trump’s Shadow War,” Politico*, May 9, 2018
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- James Goldgeier
- The Americans
- Deborah D. Avant, The Market for Force: The Consequences of Privatizing Security
- Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
- Steve Coll, Directorate S: The CIA, and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan
- Roger Fisher, William L. Ury, and Bruce Patton, Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In
- Paul Holden, Indefensible: Seven Myths that Sustain the Global Arms Trade
- Robert Jervis, Perception and Misconception in International Politics
- Arthur Koestler, Darkness at Noon
- Hans Morgethau, Politics Among Nations
- Occupied
- Steven Pinker, The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person’s Guide to Writing in the 21st Century
- Ben Rhodes, The World as It Is: A Memoir of the Obama White House
- Joe Sacco, Palestine
- Elizabeth Saunders, Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions
- Brent Steele, Ontological Security in International Relations: Self‐Identity and the IR State
- Amor Towles, A Gentleman in Moscow: A Novel
- Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis
- Earl Weaver, Winning!
- Jack Goldstone, Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics
- Justin Vaïsse, Zbigniew Brzezinski: America’s Grand Strategist
- Kori Schake, Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony
- Margaret Maron
- Charlene Harris
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Julie Chernov Hwang from Goucher College joins Trevor Thrall and Sahar Khan to discuss why Indonesian jihadists leave militancy in her new book, Why Terrorists Quit. Julie Chernov Hwang’s bio * Why Terrorists Quit: The Disengagement of Indonesian Jihadists * Julie Chernov Hwang, “The Unintended Consequences of Amending Indonesia’s Anti‐Terrorism Law,” Lawfare Blog, October 1, 2017 * Anita Rachman and Ben Otto, “Families with Bombs: Islamic State inspires new wave of Indonesian Terrorism,” Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2018 * Sidney Jones, “How ISIS has changed terrorism in Indonesia,” New York Times*, May 22, 2018
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Bruce Jentleson from Duke University joins Trevor Thrall and Sahar Khan to discuss the importance of statesmanship and his new book, The Peacemakers.
Show notes:
- Guest Bio: Bruce Jentleson
- The Peacemakers
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Show description: In a special 2‑part episode, Emma Ashford, Trevor Thrall, and new co‐host, Sahar Kahn, discuss North Korea and the prospects for a nuclear summit with Cato Policy Analyst Eric Gomez.* Guest bio: Eric Gomez * Power Problems Episode #4, September 19, 2017: Kim Jong Trump * Eric Gomez, “Not Quite Back to the Drawing Board with North Korea” * Eric Gomez, “Keep Calm and Summit On”
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Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall shift from military affairs this week to talk about humanitarian aid with American University’s Jessica Trisko Darden. * Guest bio: Jessica Trisko Darden * Humanitarian Aid and War * Is Humanitarian Aid a Waste?
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Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall are joined by David Edelstein of Georgetown University to discuss how great powers respond to rising challengers. Guest Bio: David Edelstein * Over the Horizon: Time, Uncertainty, and the Rise of Great Powers*
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Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall are joined by Cato’s own Caroline Dorminey to discuss U.S. arms sales in the Trump era. Guest bio: Caroline Dorminey * Caroline Dorminey and Trevor Thrall. “Risky Business: the Role of Arms Sales in U.S. Foreign Policy” * Paul Holden (ed.) Indefensible: Seven Myths That Sustain the Global Arms TradeM* * Jonathan Caverley. “America’s Arms Sales Policy: Security Abroad, Not Jobs at Home” * Amnesty International. “Iraq: Taking Stock of Arming the Islamic State”
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Today Emma Ashford and Trevor Thrall discuss the expansion of the U.S. war on terror into Africa with Bronwyn Bruton from the Atlantic Council. Guest Bio: Bronwyn Bruton * Bronwyn Bruton, “Ethiopia: In the Eye of the Storm” * U.S. News and World Report*, “Where in the World Is the U.S. Military? Everywhere”
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Vladimir Putin won re‐election handily, but the future of U.S.-Russia relations is a tougher question. We chat with Matthew Rojanksy of the Woodrow Wilson Center. Guest Bio: Matthew Rojansky * “U.S. Russia Policy” in Our Foreign Policy Choices * “Why New Russia Sanctions Won’t Change Moscow’s Behavior” in Foreign Affairs* * The Legacy of George Kennan Conference
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We discuss the ongoing war in Yemen and U.S. involvement with Kate Kizer from Win Without War.* Guest bio: Kate Kizer * Council on Foreign Relations Yemen Backgrounder * Cato’s John Glaser on Yemen * What the President Should Do in Yemen
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Hans Kristensen from the Federation of American Scientists joins us today to discuss the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review.* Hans Kristensen bio * 2018 Nuclear Posture Review * Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Posture Review Resource * Texas National Security Review Policy Roundtable on the NPR
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Kathleen Hicks from CSIS and Hal Brands from Johns Hopkins SAIS join us to talk about Trump’s foreign policy at the one year mark.* Guest bio: Kathleen Hicks * Guest bio: Hal Brands * National Security Strategy * Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy
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Show Notes:* Guest Bio: Nate Olson * 2017 National Security Strategy * Nate Olson, “How Donald Trump Can Avoid a Trade War with China” * Pew Research, “Support for Free Trade Rebounds.”
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Show Notes: A Dangerous World? edited by Christopher A. Preble and John Mueller * American Foreign Policy and the Politics of Fear edited by A. Trevor Thrall and Jane K. Cramer * Curiosity: How Will the World End?*
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In a special live recording of the podcast, we explore the President’s relationship with the military, the defense budget, and what the Pentagon wants for Christmas with our guest Aaron Mehta.
Show Notes
- Guest Bio: Aaron Mehta
- Aaron Mehta, “One hand tied behind your back: Why DoD’s empty policy chair matters.”
- Aaron Mehta, “America’s Nuclear Weapons will cost $1.2 Trillion Over the next 30 Years.”
- Chris Preble, “Senate Passes a Pentagon Budget, but a BCA Trainwreck Looms.”
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Syria’s use of chemical weapons calls into question the utility of international norms. We discuss those norms and how to enforce them with Greg Koblentz.
Show Notes:
- Guest Bio: Greg Koblentz
- Greg Koblentz, “Syria’s Chemical Weapons Kill Chain”
- Richard Price, “After Syria, Is There Still a Taboo against the Use of Chemical Weapons?””
- Saskia Popescu, “Antimicrobial Resistance: An Underrated Biological Threat””
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We chat with Brian Katulis from the Center for American Progress about ongoing chaos in the Middle East, the regional security environment, and the options for America’s future role in the region.
Show Notes
- Guest bio: Brian Katulis
- Brian Katulis, “Leveraging U.S. Power in the Middle East”
- Andrew Bacevich, “Endless War in the Middle East”
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We talk Trump and the future of the Iran nuclear deal with Colin Kahl, former national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden.
Show Notes:
- Guest Bio: Colin Kahl
- Colin Kahl, “The Myth of a ‘Better’ Iran Deal”
- Emma Ashford and John Glaser, “Unforced Error: The Risks of Confrontation with Iran”
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Show Notes Guest Bio: Alexander Downes * Targeting Civilians in War * “Rohingya Account Atrocities,” New York Times*
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Show Notes:* Guest Bio: Ariane Tabatabai * “Preserving the Nuclear Deal” * “Regime Change in Iran Wouldn’t Work”
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Tensions are rising on the Korean peninsula, between North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests and Trump’s inflammatory tweets. We discuss the situation with Joshua Pollack. Show notes:* Guest Bio: Joshua Pollack * What Does the Timing of North Korea’s Missile Tests Mean? * Is Ballistic Missile Defense the Answer?
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Today we talk about Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy with Sameer Lalwani. Is there anything new here?
Show notes:* Guest Bio: Sameer Lalwani * Trump’s Televised Speech on Afghanistan Strategy
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This week we ask John Glaser: why does the U.S. have so many military bases around the world? Show notes:* Guest Bio: John Glaser * John Glaser, “Withdrawing from Overseas Bases: Why a Forward‐Deployed Military Posture Is Unnecessary, Outdated, and Dangerous”
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Christopher Preble joins us to discuss what restraint in foreign policy means and what it would look like in practice.
Show notes:
- Guest Bio: Christopher Preble
- Barry Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy
- Cato Institute, “Our Foreign Policy Choices: Rethinking America’s Global Role”
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